Ain't gonna happen until the fiat pipe directly into XMR >> the pipe into btc.  Given that the btc pipe will grow by order of magnitude soon, with etf listings, that will take a long time.

Anyhow, price equilibrium now is dominated by cost of mining.  Still quantum foam here. 2usd should remain an attractor for a while, ceteris paribus.  Partly because of the round-number bias.

The three periods of greatest risk for broad markets coming up are Sept 16, jan-feb 17, aug-oct 17.  The longer it takes to get a major correction, the more likely we are to see a 60-75% drop in asset levels (constant value units off the 2015 highs, still never surpassed), which is the demographic attractor level.  In a central banking crisis, a 90-95% drop is possible.

Right now, gold is likely to correct down over the next week or so, with support around 1220, which is a sweet buy point , so I think there is reason to think u.s. markets may test new constant value highs , but not for long.  Gold won't dip that low unless oil sees at least strong resistance, and better, a significant drop, 32 being lower support for WTI for a few months.

In xmr I think we are very close to where miners can sell again.  I expect liquidity and volatility to decline together, as does emission, uutil  marketability event catalyzes demand, all else being equal.  The few buyers are people with strong vision and confident understanding.  Short-term speculators are few, and the economy is essentially nil.

I would not be surprised if 120k btc got dumped over the next 5 days or so, and price was attracted to lower support.  I will definitely buy at ⁴⁴⁴.

Lost a tiny sliver on bfx myself.  Much to my pleasure, I removed almost all of my btc from bfx on friday.  No, I did not have any inside info.  But monkey was saying it was a bad time to lever: volatility squeeze

So what is the new go-to platform, if you want to lever on btc, short or long?

Still seems about 10-15% undervalued to me, but close enough so I no longer feel like it's a fire sale.  Adjusting my cheap/dear levels to 284k/338k overnight, but probably will raise the bracket tomorrow afternoon - usually when there's a big up day, it continues up strongly  for a day or two.

nah, ain't gonna happen.  too much resistance at 430-440 level.

I would lay odds that TLAs have all the ingress/egress data for plx right now.  It's just a question of whether they want sources & methods hang-out, which strictly depends on the size of the prize.  Laundering through plx, or any centralized exchange (or "supernode") is double plus un- clever.  Exchanges are for exchange, and do not have holy water.

Wrong.  But monkey is still leaning slightly bearish, with resistance at 605, support at 440, for the overnight.

Monkey thinks BTC turns down again in about an hour.  He does not think the dumps are over, by any means.  But he does tend to lag on that issue, historically. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XpZ8mKlS-c

Goofy to sell XMR here, IMO.

BTC should turn down again in about an hour.  The drops are far from over.

Wow, sure glad I moved 90% of my then BTC balance off of Bitfinex last Friday.  Another Mt.Gox situation would have made me a sad camper indeed.  Friends don't let friends use exchanges as wallets.

In case you didn't notice: bitfinex hacked.

To be clear, I did not infer that fractional reserve was a cause of oppression.  Certainly it plays a role in inequality, as it permits a privileged few to lever rents, but inequality and oppression are distinct.  I consider the adoption of currency backed by sovereign debt as the principal form of economic oppression globally, as it enables the use of the sword of the state to force usury on an entire population, regardless of their choices - and those two points are crucial differences as regards the issue of fractional reserve.  Inequality can become a pragmatic economic problem when it becomes extreme.  It is also a pragmatic economic problem when wealth is too evenly distributed.  Oppression is a moral issue, an identity issue, and an issue of blood.  One reason why the distinction is important: Wise people of good will seek to address pragmatic issues, but extremism is not a responsible option in cases of pragmatic utility.  But in cases of entrenched systematic injustice, extremism may be the only visible option.'

I agree that frictions are imposed on the dis-privileged, and opine that this is an injustice, a moral issue albeit a lesser one, as well as a pragmatic one.  In general economies of scale have created opportunities for those who ameliorate these issues, and that has pragmatic value, increasing productivity, decreasing inefficiency.  Market solutions appear suited to squeeze that injustice to the tiniest of margins over time.  Crypto is part of that solution.  Crypto could potentially be a solution to the much more damaging practical and moral issue of currency backed by sovereign debt, and if it were to be effective, could save much bloodshed.  It is much more difficult to make it so, however.  It remains to be seen that market mechanisms will suffice to achieve or even approximate that end.  One can hope, but one cannot base rational decisions on hope.
  

I think it would be implausible and unwise to hinge expectations for crypto broadly or for Monero in particular, or for that matter for Bitcoin or any other specific cryptocurrency, on any singular event which is, if foreseeable, yet entirely unprecedented, and quite plausibly entirely unnecessary to the roaring success of those cryptocurrencies which offer significant value otherwise lacking in the market.

Some of the scenarios for the high valuation of Bitcoin have not proven feasible, at least yet. Specifically I am thinking of the Western Union replacement scenario which always did depend on the spontaneous viral formation of local currency exchanges throughout third world countries. However by far the largest channel for the influx of fiat value into Bitcpin, and broadly the cryptocurrency ecosystem, are yet future events: the listings of crypto ETFs.

Although the causal connection is not entirely clear I do think there is some plausible link between the Cyprus bail-ins and the early 2013 ramp in Bitcoin. It was not an apocalyptic or cataclysmic events in the sense that it was not a global event. I do have sympathy for those whose lives were impacted in a substantial way but a personal tragedy does not an apocalypse make. Personal tragedy on a statistical scale however, or more to the point provision for the possibility thereof, can however have a substantial impact on a relatively low market cap currency such as Bitcoin was in 2012 or such as Monero is today.

I do think that the debt-based currency system has been a tool for oppression on a scale unimaginable prior to the 20th century. It has been a tumultuous and catastrophic experiment which kicked into full gear in 1971. Hopefully it will prove to be a short-lived experiment and will collapse without terrible collateral effects. It is my hope that cryptocurrency because of its technical appeals will prove a worthy successor for facilitating commerce. However it is likely that a gold standard, or an sdr system sad to say, will be the primary accounting and exchange system for international trade, and crypto will see, at best pervasive, individual use. I think that would be quite sufficient to allow Monero in particular to achieve a substantially higher valuation on the order of 1,000 times, under reasonable conditions far short of calamity.

Calamity by some generous definition will almost certainly occur in The fairly near future. And indeed I expect and hope that the debt-slavery system will collapse within a matter of a few short years at most. But that calamity will be a kind of creative destruction which is essential to a healthy free market. While it is preferable for everyone to be a winner, in a free market that is not always the case. That does not mean that any individual or even any large segment of the population must necessarily suffer greatly in order for that destruction to occur. Simple disruption and market-driven reallocation of resources will suffice in general.

As long as they remain pertinent, I think the reminder is harmless, at worst, and perhaps useful to newcomers.

I am pretty sure that "fundamentals of perception" is not intended to allude to Huxley, but not sure what it does reference.  Gox & DAO, perhaps?

Define calamity.  Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR.  These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.

Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases.  Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest.   I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align. 

Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces.  If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category.  Very hard to discount, therefore.

It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.

BTC chart has deteriorated substantially over the weekend.  Looks like a lot more downside.  I sold a splanch of BTC myself.  What puzzles me is why XMR isn't on a tear right now.  Given that BTC expectations are poor, I would expect everyone with any fondness for XMR to be seeking refuge there.

My ladder is kicking in now on BTC.  If we can get to the 500s, I may even sell some metal so i can margin a bit against a USD capital position: Monkey says down on the daily, but strongly up on the weekly.

Now, I buy. 

In my opinion, Monero has both of those advantages, as well as superior governance.  Fungibility and risk control are the transmission channels of that superiority.  There are more currency use-cases for an opaque chain than for a transparent one.  Software usability still lags, but is definitely catching up. I consider it a tortoise, in a field of hares.

Since I am here, I offer some general views:

Gold, oil seem good bets for the coming week. Oil should outperform gold into mid-August, but in late August I expect gold to compete again. I am torn on SPX.  Treasuries probably have a few more days to run as well, but will correct again mid-August.  It's a QE/NIRP-based asset inflation week again, I guess.

As mentioned elsewhere: On technical grounds, I think SPX short interest may not reach capitulation for another 5 months, and if that holds true, the subsequent bear market should be a very strong one indeed.  I am not sure it can hold out that long, however.  The rot is so deep, so pervasive.  18 months of declining earnings and rising prices.  Outright manipulation in the form of covert as well as overt central bank buying can basically stick the prices wherever they wish, for now, but it's hard to believe they could be so foolish as to do so without limit, contra fundamentals.  Particularly when it is obvious that the Gini effects are creating both political risk and economic headwinds, on a massive scale.

The only truly adequate grounds for taking a strong medium-long range view on equities, since 2012 at least, has been a robust game-theoretical model for the boards of the major central banks.  I lack that, so my views lately are primarily very short-term and technical or event-based. I am confident in the very long term of a correction to demographic trends and economic rationality.  Between, my crystal ball is utterly fogged, specifically regarding SPX, caught in a haze of Fedspeak.

Disclosure: My positions on these instruments are currently long XMR, short the front gold OTM calls in a ratio to long December gold ITM calls, short the front SPX OTM puts in a ratio to long SPX ITM 2017 ITM puts, and long August WTI ITM calls.  I have no present position in long bonds, but may be a buyer on Monday and a seller on Friday, to catch the tail of this swing.