[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

Goofy to sell XMR here, IMO.

BTC should turn down again in about an hour.  The drops are far from over.

damn sKippy!

[smoothie]

so does the btc hacker now move into xmr?

Meaning poloniex?

No, meaning the hacker now goes btc -> monero -> btc to launder his coins. This could affect xmr's price.

This will have future implications of existing exchanges should this happen.

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

Problem is that there are other services that exist to facilitate this method of washing coins, and if those ever got shut down there would be some other avenue to do so.

It's a matter of time before the usage of monero in that manner is taken advantage of.

Right now monero is not really on the radar, at least not yet.


Edit: If polo or an exchange tracking the hacked coins decided to block those coins from being deposited and converted to say XMR, those implications would be interesting to see unfold. I would expect a hacker to deposit in different places utilizing shapeshift.io and xmr.to.

I reckon that it would be difficult to block all avenues to "wash" coins from a hack in this manner. But then again it is something to watch for in the future given the technology that XMR has let out of the genie bottle.

but this all remains to be seen.

[explorer]

so does the btc hacker now move into xmr?

Meaning poloniex?

No, meaning the hacker now goes btc -> monero -> btc to launder his coins. This could affect xmr's price.

This will have future implications of existing exchanges should this happen.

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

Problem is that there are other services that exist to facilitate this method of washing coins, and if those ever got shut down there would be some other avenue to do so.

It's a matter of time before the usage of monero in that manner is taken advantage of.

Right now monero is not really on the radar, at least not yet.


Edit: If polo or an exchange tracking the hacked coins decided to block those coins from being deposited and converted to say XMR, those implications would be interesting to see unfold. I would expect a hacker to deposit in different places utilizing shapeshift.io and xmr.to.

I reckon that it would be difficult to block all avenues to "wash" coins from a hack in this manner. But then again it is something to watch for in the future given the technology that XMR has let out of the genie bottle.

but this all remains to be seen.

Don't Shapeshift and XMR.TO have smallish transaction limits?  It would be impractical to get 100K BTC through those channels, I would think.

[ArticMine]

...

This will have future implications of existing exchanges should this happen.

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

Problem is that there are other services that exist to facilitate this method of washing coins, and if those ever got shut down there would be some other avenue to do so.

It's a matter of time before the usage of monero in that manner is taken advantage of.

Right now monero is not really on the radar, at least not yet.


Edit: If polo or an exchange tracking the hacked coins decided to block those coins from being deposited and converted to say XMR, those implications would be interesting to see unfold. I would expect a hacker to deposit in different places utilizing shapeshift.io and xmr.to.

I reckon that it would be difficult to block all avenues to "wash" coins from a hack in this manner. But then again it is something to watch for in the future given the technology that XMR has let out of the genie bottle.

but this all remains to be seen.

The already do. The issue with money laundering on such a large scale is not whether the governments can prevent it, they can. It is can they effectively punish a bank that engages in money laundering without destabilizing the whole debt based fiat banking system?

The US government decided not to pursue criminal charges against HSBC for allowing terrorists and drug dealers to launder millions of dollars after George Osborne and the UK banking regulator intervened to warn that prosecuting Britain’s biggest bank could lead to a “global financial disaster”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/hsbc-us-money-laundering-george-osborne-report With crypto currency such a Monero this could work since punishing a rouge player would not destabilize the rest of the financial system since it would not be debt based.

Edit: MTGox did not kill Bitcoin neither will BitFinex.

[aminorex]

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

I would lay odds that TLAs have all the ingress/egress data for plx right now.  It's just a question of whether they want sources & methods hang-out, which strictly depends on the size of the prize.  Laundering through plx, or any centralized exchange (or "supernode") is double plus un- clever.  Exchanges are for exchange, and do not have holy water.

[smoothie]

...

This will have future implications of existing exchanges should this happen.

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

Problem is that there are other services that exist to facilitate this method of washing coins, and if those ever got shut down there would be some other avenue to do so.

It's a matter of time before the usage of monero in that manner is taken advantage of.

Right now monero is not really on the radar, at least not yet.


Edit: If polo or an exchange tracking the hacked coins decided to block those coins from being deposited and converted to say XMR, those implications would be interesting to see unfold. I would expect a hacker to deposit in different places utilizing shapeshift.io and xmr.to.

I reckon that it would be difficult to block all avenues to "wash" coins from a hack in this manner. But then again it is something to watch for in the future given the technology that XMR has let out of the genie bottle.

but this all remains to be seen.

The already do. The issue with money laundering on such a large scale is not whether the governments can prevent it, they can. It is can they effectively punish a bank that engages in money laundering without destabilizing the whole debt based fiat banking system?

The US government decided not to pursue criminal charges against HSBC for allowing terrorists and drug dealers to launder millions of dollars after George Osborne and the UK banking regulator intervened to warn that prosecuting Britain’s biggest bank could lead to a “global financial disaster”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/11/hsbc-us-money-laundering-george-osborne-report With crypto currency such a Monero this could work since punishing a rouge player would not destabilize the rest of the financial system since it would not be debt based.

Edit: MTGox did not kill Bitcoin neither will BitFinex.

The more important question I was referring to is has Poloniex put into place (or shapeshift etc) triggers to disallow conversion of "stolen" BTC to XMR?

You make a good point that keeping the status quo for larger institutions engaging in money laundering is in the best interest of TPTB. Smaller banks/businesses would not benefit from such an action as they would not shake the power structure to its knees if they were to close down.

[smoothie]

so does the btc hacker now move into xmr?

Meaning poloniex?

No, meaning the hacker now goes btc -> monero -> btc to launder his coins. This could affect xmr's price.

This will have future implications of existing exchanges should this happen.

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

Problem is that there are other services that exist to facilitate this method of washing coins, and if those ever got shut down there would be some other avenue to do so.

It's a matter of time before the usage of monero in that manner is taken advantage of.

Right now monero is not really on the radar, at least not yet.


Edit: If polo or an exchange tracking the hacked coins decided to block those coins from being deposited and converted to say XMR, those implications would be interesting to see unfold. I would expect a hacker to deposit in different places utilizing shapeshift.io and xmr.to.

I reckon that it would be difficult to block all avenues to "wash" coins from a hack in this manner. But then again it is something to watch for in the future given the technology that XMR has let out of the genie bottle.

but this all remains to be seen.

Don't Shapeshift and XMR.TO have smallish transaction limits?  It would be impractical to get 100K BTC through those channels, I would think.

Doesn't Polo allow small exchange accounts to be created with certain daily limits?

Perhaps the hacker could open several hundred accounts with random email addresses while attempting to remain anonymous. Move a small portion of the 100k to each account and exchange for XMR or whatever and withdraw..and repeat with the next account...eventually the could convert a good portion if they wanted to.

The problem would be is if Polo is watching stolen addresses of BTC and doing chainanalysis of these thefts.

[smoothie]

I can see Govt's getting involved to "regulate" say Poloniex to try to stop this from happening.

I would lay odds that TLAs have all the ingress/egress data for plx right now.  It's just a question of whether they want sources & methods hang-out, which strictly depends on the size of the prize.  Laundering through plx, or any centralized exchange (or "supernode") is double plus un- clever.  Exchanges are for exchange, and do not have holy water.

In retrospect perhaps it would be very difficult to "wash" such a stash with XMR. Maybe over time it could be done but if there is any form of chain analysis going on at the exchange level it could be very problematic for the theif.

Definitely not clever.

[mmortal03]

so does the btc hacker now move into xmr?

Meaning poloniex?

No, meaning the hacker now goes btc -> monero -> btc to launder his coins. This could affect xmr's price.

I mean, it did seem like the hackers did it the last time we had a substantial hack.

[nioc]

We just briefly hit 300 and the # of coins on the sell side is 266K.  I haven't seen it below 300K in a very long time.

The 19K XMR/57 btc wall at 302 is still there. 

Oh wait, as I write this 12K XMR/ 37K BTC of it was just bought in one bite plus what was below it

[needmoney90]

We just briefly hit 300 and the # of coins on the sell side is 266K.  I haven't seen it below 300K in a very long time.

The 19K XMR/57 btc wall at 302 is still there. 

Oh wait, as I write this 12K XMR/ 37K BTC of it was just bought in one bite plus what was below it

What wall? 

[GreekBitcoin]

I believe it looks good lately. Like it has found a new bottom zone. I am not overexcited now but will certainly be when we pass 0.0042 soon™!

It took the dumps pretty good yesterday and today it is even pumping. Like someone made a mistake yesterday and reentering?

Edit: Anyone may invite me on slack?

[aminorex]

Still seems about 10-15% undervalued to me, but close enough so I no longer feel like it's a fire sale.  Adjusting my cheap/dear levels to 284k/338k overnight, but probably will raise the bracket tomorrow afternoon - usually when there's a big up day, it continues up strongly  for a day or two.

[TooDumbForBitcoin]

Still seems about 10-15% undervalued to me, but close enough so I no longer feel like it's a fire sale.  Adjusting my cheap/dear levels to 284k/338k overnight, but probably will raise the bracket tomorrow afternoon - usually when there's a big up day, it continues up strongly  for a day or two.

monkey, RIP. 

What happened?  Bad/too many bananas?

[smoothie]

the price action reminds me of this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u44D3qKKGPU

the ashes ROFL! 

[thelibertycap]

It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc.

This is a large portion of my thinking about cryptocurrency. If you were around since 2011 as I was then you can appreciate the enormous shift in public confidence in the incumbent financial system. Crypto is surviving and even to an extent thriving despite a five-year trend in the fundamentals of perception that are hugely negative, but I don't really see a moon type event in any crypto without that trend reversing in a big way.

I remember installing a bitcoin wallet shortly after the 2009 collapse when markets made their lows and rebounded. I started being interested in gold and was looking for new alternatives to fiat money and the current system. Too bad I didn't put much more interest in at that time little research project.
Fast forward to now, when the stock market is about to create the biggest bubble ever - the subsequent bust will make people look for alternatives and this time Bitcoin will be ready. I think we still have time to make Monero ready as well. 

[novag]

I also think that this is not the pump and the natural growth that will last up to the intermediate value 0.01.

[Febo]

It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc.

This is a large portion of my thinking about cryptocurrency. If you were around since 2011 as I was then you can appreciate the enormous shift in public confidence in the incumbent financial system. Crypto is surviving and even to an extent thriving despite a five-year trend in the fundamentals of perception that are hugely negative, but I don't really see a moon type event in any crypto without that trend reversing in a big way.

I remember installing a bitcoin wallet shortly after the 2009 collapse when markets made their lows and rebounded. I started being interested in gold and was looking for new alternatives to fiat money and the current system. Too bad I didn't put much more interest in at that time little research project.
Fast forward to now, when the stock market is about to create the biggest bubble ever - the subsequent bust will make people look for alternatives and this time Bitcoin will be ready. I think we still have time to make Monero ready as well. 

If you really installed bitcoin wallet shortly after the 2009 collapse, so less then half year after Bitcoin existence and you did it not with the reason to test technology but because you were looking for new alternatives to fiat money, I hope you will post here more. Since there are not many like you if any at all.

I agree with you all that financial crisis is biggest chance for Bitcoin and specially for Monero.  What i dont agree or maybe just dont want to open my eyes is that next crisis is  just behind the corner.  Yes it will come. It always does. But not so soon.

[Dotto]

Well. Eu seems like optimally ripe for a lehman bro episode. OTOH, when a lot of people expect something (the deustche and italian banks collapsing this fall/coming months), the expected thing tends to not manifest.

You can recognize reality in his improbablity.

So we don´t really know. The only thing we know for sure is that XMR is not repeating his last year history (as guessed by a good chunk of XMR followers) and its doing a sane, serene bull run

[aminorex]

Yes it will come. It always does. But not so soon.

The three periods of greatest risk for broad markets coming up are Sept 16, jan-feb 17, aug-oct 17.  The longer it takes to get a major correction, the more likely we are to see a 60-75% drop in asset levels (constant value units off the 2015 highs, still never surpassed), which is the demographic attractor level.  In a central banking crisis, a 90-95% drop is possible.

Right now, gold is likely to correct down over the next week or so, with support around 1220, which is a sweet buy point , so I think there is reason to think u.s. markets may test new constant value highs , but not for long.  Gold won't dip that low unless oil sees at least strong resistance, and better, a significant drop, 32 being lower support for WTI for a few months.

In xmr I think we are very close to where miners can sell again.  I expect liquidity and volatility to decline together, as does emission, uutil  marketability event catalyzes demand, all else being equal.  The few buyers are people with strong vision and confident understanding.  Short-term speculators are few, and the economy is essentially nil.