[XMR] Monero Speculation

[GingerAle]

U guys are getting really cryptic.

I speculate bananas

[generalizethis]

U guys are getting really cryptic.

I speculate bananas

A banana would fit

[nioc]

End of the month is a bad time for btc to go down.

What do you mean by that?

I think he means it is bad for the people that pay their bills in BTC

Or people that pay their bills in fiat so no fiat is left over for btc, some of which inexorably becomes Monero.  Though it seems that I will probably have some time to buy at these levels and some quite reputable people are expecting lower. 

U guys are getting really cryptic.

I speculate bananas

Wait, are you aminorex's monkey?

[jehst]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

[luigi1111]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

Yes.

Edit: Sorry I can never resist answering questions like this like that.

[aminorex]

BTC chart has deteriorated substantially over the weekend.  Looks like a lot more downside.  I sold a splanch of BTC myself.  What puzzles me is why XMR isn't on a tear right now.  Given that BTC expectations are poor, I would expect everyone with any fondness for XMR to be seeking refuge there.

[aminorex]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

Define calamity.  Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR.  These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.

Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases.  Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest.   I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align. 

Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces.  If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category.  Very hard to discount, therefore.

It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.

[ArticMine]

There are also use cases for Monero that have nothing to do with world calamities or even illegal plants. The recent Ethereum hard fork is an excellent case in point. Consider the following old thread where it was proposed back in 2013 to do an Ethereum style hard fork to undo the seizure by the United States of the Silk Road Bitcoins. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=306809.0;all. What is significant is that the poll had 27.7% in support of such a hard fork in Bitcoin. Of course if the United States Government had seized Monero instead of Bitcoin (I know Monero did not exist back then, but let us suppose) this would have been virtually impossible making the entire thread irrelevant.

We can thank Vitalik Buterin for a new use case for Monero, This use case is that Monero actually ensures that if the proceeds of crime are seized by lawful means they remain seized.

[jehst]

Define calamity.  Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR.  These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.

Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases.  Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest.   I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align.  

Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces.  If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category.  Very hard to discount, therefore.

It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.

We've been over the use cases a million times. All of those use cases you listed are good and XMR is good in theory right now but something needs to actually drive the reaction. The temperature needs to be changed. An enzyme needs to be added. Something is eluding us.

It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc.

It may be that we need a clear-cut case of bitcoin blockchain analysis bringing down a large group of illicit traffickers in order for all of those markets to switch over to XMR.

I'm still reading stories about people strapping cash to their bodies and trying to physically cross borders. This stuff is not necessary anymore.

I'm trying to understand what it is that we're waiting for. I don't think it's any sort of GUI or decrease in the block reward or anything like that. Maybe XMR actually has to be the last man standing. The only good option left. And not just from a theoretical standpoint. Maybe things have to actually be on fire.

[smooth]

It may be that we are waiting for an extinction event. That is what I mean by calamity. Perhaps the complete or near destruction of global financial system. In that case, people will be running for their lives. XMR could function as a lifeboat alongside precious metals, etc.

This is a large portion of my thinking about cryptocurrency. If you were around since 2011 as I was then you can appreciate the enormous shift in public confidence in the incumbent financial system. Crypto is surviving and even to an extent thriving despite a five-year trend in the fundamentals of perception that are hugely negative, but I don't really see a moon type event in any crypto without that trend reversing in a big way.

[aminorex]

This is a large portion of my thinking about cryptocurrency. If you were around since 2011 as I was then you can appreciate the enormous shift in public confidence in the incumbent financial system. Crypto is surviving and even to an extent thriving despite a five-year trend in the fundamentals of perception that are hugely negative, but I don't really see a moon type event in any crypto without that trend reversing in a big way.

I am pretty sure that "fundamentals of perception" is not intended to allude to Huxley, but not sure what it does reference.  Gox & DAO, perhaps?

[aminorex]

We've been over the use cases a million times.

As long as they remain pertinent, I think the reminder is harmless, at worst, and perhaps useful to newcomers.

[smooth]

This is a large portion of my thinking about cryptocurrency. If you were around since 2011 as I was then you can appreciate the enormous shift in public confidence in the incumbent financial system. Crypto is surviving and even to an extent thriving despite a five-year trend in the fundamentals of perception that are hugely negative, but I don't really see a moon type event in any crypto without that trend reversing in a big way.

I am pretty sure that "fundamentals of perception" is not intended to allude to Huxley, but not sure what it does reference.  Gox & DAO, perhaps?

Fundamentals meaning likely realizable value based on public perception that the incumbent financial system is broken and either needs replacement or even that there is an opportunity for such a replacement to possibly occur. That perception died a slow death during the period since 2008 (crypto hard core excluded), but mostly since 2010-2011. Prior to that it was still widespread.

[Bemerand]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

If you are investing based on the premise that the global economy will implode in order for you to make your money, you basically belong on the TV show doomsday preppers. This coin is a solid investment with out the doomsday scenario, its just supposed to be a niche thing that if that ever does happen XMR is prepared. Look at the bigger picture, is it a worthwhile coin for everyday life and will its anonymity specs and special features of this coin help it to grow? Chances are the global economy will be just fine a higher percentage of the time then it will spend collapsing and countries around the 7 billion person world work all together to keep it going. I understand the temptation to invest in something that only need happen one time to score big, (like a global economic crash) but look at every other day too is all I'm saying #JustMyAdvice

[rangedriver]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

If you are investing based on the premise that the global economy will implode in order for you to make your money, you basically belong on the TV show doomsday preppers. This coin is a solid investment with out the doomsday scenario, its just supposed to be a niche thing that if that ever does happen XMR is prepared. Look at the bigger picture, is it a worthwhile coin for everyday life and will its anonymity specs and special features of this coin help it to grow? Chances are the global economy will be just fine a higher percentage of the time then it will spend collapsing and countries around the 7 billion person world work all together to keep it going. I understand the temptation to invest in something that only need happen one time to score big, (like a global economic crash) but look at every other day too is all I'm saying #JustMyAdvice

You sound as if you are satisfied with the status quo. Modulation of the global economy to a decentralized system is surely the point?

Just as one might liberate those suffering under a political dictatorship, so too would we introduce liberty to those under the authority of an economic dictatorship.

That would inevitably involve the destruction of the current economic order. I don't really see that as something to be denigrated or trivialized as a TV show oddity (?)...

[jehst]

This coin is a solid investment with out the doomsday scenario

What if it's not? What I'm suggesting is that cryptocurrencies may be insect-eating tree rats scurrying in the dense brush. Not prospering. Not expanding. Just surviving. Surviving during the reign of the dinosaurs.  Surviving for many millions of years in the shadow of reptiles until an opportunity presents itself. If that opportunity presents itself, the tree rats and their descendants can take over the whole game. If not, then they occupy their little niche in the shadows forever. What you're suggesting seems to be that the tree rats can have a solid future in their niche. But I'm not seeing it. Not when the dinosaurs are occupying all the skies and land and seas.

[smooth]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

If you are investing based on the premise that the global economy will implode in order for you to make your money, you basically belong on the TV show doomsday preppers.

It kind of depends what you mean by make your money. You can certainly achieve good gains based on continued development and adoption a niche of privacy-focused individuals, private store of wealth, certain niche markets that require decentralized payments, etc. But the enormous gains that come with even realistic prospects for mainstream adoption of any crypto won't come as long as there is no perception of there being any need for it. Of course, if that perception does occur, it will probably be too late to get in cheap...

[iCEBREAKER]

Is it necessary for the global economy to implode for XMR to grow exponentially? Or will people be able to see the merits of fungible cryptocurrency without calamity?

Define calamity.  Capital controls, confiscatory taxation, bail-ins are all good for XMR.  These are foreseeable, known unknowns. I don't anticipate that they will be dominant factors in valuation until after the known catalysts have made their primary impact.

Regarding knowns: Look to AML/KYC and contraband use-cases.  Some consider that history has proven the war on plants to be a calamity, which we are already experiencing in the fullest.   I think that will be good for 25x-50x gains in XMR if/when software usability and risk-aversion demand align. 

Then there are unknown unknowns, unforseen use-cases in which privacy makes the difference between a dark world of calamity, and bright open spaces.  If I were to name them, they would no longer be in this category.  Very hard to discount, therefore.

It's not literally "exponential" until the factors are seen to have compounded.

The global economy imploded in 2008.  We're just enjoying the late innings of the Extend & Pretend game.

Since then, Bitcoin and Monero have risen exponentially.   

The recent focus on ETC makes me wonder if XMR's best attribute is ring signature-based resistance to mutability (rollbacks, bailouts) in the form of contentious hard forks, or something else we haven't appreciated or even noticed yet.

[aminorex]

I think it would be implausible and unwise to hinge expectations for crypto broadly or for Monero in particular, or for that matter for Bitcoin or any other specific cryptocurrency, on any singular event which is, if foreseeable, yet entirely unprecedented, and quite plausibly entirely unnecessary to the roaring success of those cryptocurrencies which offer significant value otherwise lacking in the market.

Some of the scenarios for the high valuation of Bitcoin have not proven feasible, at least yet. Specifically I am thinking of the Western Union replacement scenario which always did depend on the spontaneous viral formation of local currency exchanges throughout third world countries. However by far the largest channel for the influx of fiat value into Bitcpin, and broadly the cryptocurrency ecosystem, are yet future events: the listings of crypto ETFs.

Although the causal connection is not entirely clear I do think there is some plausible link between the Cyprus bail-ins and the early 2013 ramp in Bitcoin. It was not an apocalyptic or cataclysmic events in the sense that it was not a global event. I do have sympathy for those whose lives were impacted in a substantial way but a personal tragedy does not an apocalypse make. Personal tragedy on a statistical scale however, or more to the point provision for the possibility thereof, can however have a substantial impact on a relatively low market cap currency such as Bitcoin was in 2012 or such as Monero is today.

I do think that the debt-based currency system has been a tool for oppression on a scale unimaginable prior to the 20th century. It has been a tumultuous and catastrophic experiment which kicked into full gear in 1971. Hopefully it will prove to be a short-lived experiment and will collapse without terrible collateral effects. It is my hope that cryptocurrency because of its technical appeals will prove a worthy successor for facilitating commerce. However it is likely that a gold standard, or an sdr system sad to say, will be the primary accounting and exchange system for international trade, and crypto will see, at best pervasive, individual use. I think that would be quite sufficient to allow Monero in particular to achieve a substantially higher valuation on the order of 1,000 times, under reasonable conditions far short of calamity.

Calamity by some generous definition will almost certainly occur in The fairly near future. And indeed I expect and hope that the debt-slavery system will collapse within a matter of a few short years at most. But that calamity will be a kind of creative destruction which is essential to a healthy free market. While it is preferable for everyone to be a winner, in a free market that is not always the case. That does not mean that any individual or even any large segment of the population must necessarily suffer greatly in order for that destruction to occur. Simple disruption and market-driven reallocation of resources will suffice in general.

[kurious]

BTC chart has deteriorated substantially over the weekend.  Looks like a lot more downside.  I sold a splanch of BTC myself.  What puzzles me is why XMR isn't on a tear right now.  Given that BTC expectations are poor, I would expect everyone with any fondness for XMR to be seeking refuge there.

The expected slight inverse correlation we usually see (BTC drop and XMR rise) not happening is worrying.

Given shenanigans with ETH, I expected us to benefit as people took their easy profits from ETC and placed some of them XMR's way.