I agree with your idea about the ongoing looting of the desperate twats, Richy.. but imminent failure/Armageddon seems a wee bit of a road too far, at least from my perspective.


You math and science peeps always screwing things up, including but not limited to haikus.

 


Tell this turtle something that it does not already know?

 

Don't give up nanha bhaee.  



In essence, the dweeb, aka Biodom, has gots his wwwwweeeeeee lil selfie a decent pointening, here.

 

A kind of funny thing seems to be that some peeps see Barts or even upside down Barts at various differing points, and perhaps even attribute some kind of significance and importance and meaning to them that goes beyond their seemingly cave-level shadows placements.

Go figure that, if you are willing?


Sometimes the question of when (or how long) it might take to get from e to p might not be as important as just enjoying the part in the middle, too... such as even e to j.. and sure if we end up getting to "p" more quickly then great or if we get our lil selfies stuck on "f" for a long time, then so be it...

We have already come a long way from a to e (ish), and probably some of us only got on board around "c"-ish but had hardly any clue about where we were at when we got on, but still were able to advantage a lot in the wee bit of the journey that we had from the c to e (-ish) part that we have travelled, so far.

Can anyone (maybe you dude?) provide me some kind of clarification by the "South America" matter?

Is the reference to El Salvador (technically in Central America... but sure for practical purposes the same thing)?   or is the reference about something going on somewhere else in South/Central America?

The latest news that I had been seeing had been that there were some other countries in South/Central America gaining attention to bitcoin, but none of them have come out (up) with anything that is even close to as bitcoin centered as the El Salvador legislation (plan), and sure with the passage of time, there is likely going to be continued movements in various countries that are going to be seeing advantages including bitcoin in their future plans - whether it is going to be the allowance of bitcoin payment/saving systems or whether it is going to be various kinds of increasing of bitcoin into governmental treasury systems.

In some sense, I am contemplating.. what's so fucking special about South/Central America.. sure the El Salvador case is really great news, but so far we really do not have any close approximations of copy-catters.. Am I missing something?

Don't get me wrong, also.  I do appreciate the great position that some of the South/Central American countries are in terms of their relationships to the USD  but why not other countries?  such as countries on the African continent?  or even other countries?  In other words, there could be some thoughts of possible regionalism in terms of jumping on a similar band wagon, but since bitcoin is so global, there are so many possibilities in so many places, and I do not understand why there would be any kind of special South/Central American focus - except for  the fact that El Salvador already did something that is still in its real early buddening stages.  Punchline:  what am I missing?   Is there some recent South/Central America news that I did not see?

Buying BTC at any price is likely a better strategy than adding the complication of trying to figure out if there happens to be a dip or not and whether such dip (if any) is sufficient.

In other words, I doubt that buying the dip is "the best" strategy as you asserted, but it is likely a good strategy that is a wee bit lower than the strategy of buying at any time.. such as the systems of DCA buying on a consistent and regular basis no matter what the price... at least until reaching BTC accumulation goals (and perhaps beyond reaching such earlier conceptualized BTC accumulation goals.. perhaps? perhaps?).

What about $10 per week is that affordable?  Many people can do $10 week, and some can do way the hell more without hardly putting any dent in their budget.   The more of a stake (aggressive approach) that anyone is able to do, then the more that they have decent chances for having a good payoff in the longer term (perhaps after a few more cycles), and of course, performance is not guaranteed even though historically bitcoin has been a very great place to put value and even though there is no real signs that bitcoin is losing its investment thesis... more likely the opposite is true.. bitcoin is increasing in its investment thesis with the passage of time and its more than 12.5 years of existence.


Huh?  Your first point is correct in that holding bitcoin is a good move, and especially a good move over a longer period of time (short-term, of course, there has been all kinds of volatility - which is likely to continue), but what the fuck are you talking about in terms of your second point, elisabetheva.  You can buy $10 of bitcoin if you want, so what causes you to conclude that bitcoin costs a lot.. satoshis are fractions of bitcoin.. same damned thing, just in smaller amounts..



There is no guarantee about the future price of bitcoin.


Surely it is good to have an investment plan into bitcoin that takes more time to play out in order to have higher chances of ensuring that your BTC holdings are in a place of profitability... but people are all over the place in terms of their investment timeline, so for sure there are no guarantees in the shorter term or the longer term for that matter, but like you mentioned, it does seem that the longer the time horizon the higher the likelihood that investing into bitcoin will be profitable.


Fuck shitcoins, including but not limited to that dumb-ass scam known as ethereum.

We are only talking about bitcoin in this thread.

Fuck shitcoins.


For sure, I am not the ONLY one in these here parts who likes to talk about DCA (an understands it to be amongst the best of the getting starting strategies for newbies - and even for non-newbies).

A good number of longer time bitcoiners know about and appreciate DCA - and likely have employed some variation of DCA, especially if they have been in bitcoin for a long time and maybe even if they do not realize that DCA is what they are (or have been) doing.

Nice article.


We gots our lil selfies a room.

It's called the WO room, if you had not heard of such a place for brainstormening of bitcoiner idea-ers?   You heard about bitcoin?  Koreck?

You can partake too in such brainstormenings, if you would likey for a long time..

or you can refrain from such partaking of participations,

or you can whine about it (as if that were to make some kind of a difference?)... #nohomo.  

It's a free thread (or I am supposed to say a "free country"?), last time that I checked.

 

now go jump in a lake, in the event that you can find one nearby.

 

Never heard of it...

Are we in the early stages of conjecture that tails could be starting to possibly wag dogs?

Say it isn't so.

 

I doubt that there are many (any?) members of this forum who would take anything that you suggest with any level of seriousness, including your bitcoin related, activities-related or anything else advices... if that is what you were attempting to accomplish.  

I was considering that if you were to strategically use more CAPS and bold, we might be able to understand your profound points much MOAR gooder.  Perhaps?


Where have you been Zedpastin?   You had not noticed any suffering in bitcoinlandia in the past years?

Yes, in retrospect, many people will suggest that it all must have been easy-peasy, and I will concede that there are some people who created an investment strategy that lessens the "suffering" so they would have been somewhat prepared psychologically and financially for the ramifications of their investment strategy and the ups and downs along the way (and you Zedpastin seem to presuming a lot of UPs in there, no?).

If the whole getting into and staying into bitcoin thingie was so obvious, there would have been a lot more people getting into bitcoin for the easy-peasy getting richie quick, right?   I don't recall seeing a lot of peeps flocking into bitcoin over the years.  Sure there are some examples, but frequently even someone like Saylor is made to look like a looney (and maybe he is)...  and for the normie it could not be easy nor obvious, otherwise we would have already had a lot of normies coming into the bitcoin space, no?  Are you presuming high levels of bitcoin adoption or more like the the truth of the matter which is quite likely still less than 1% of the world's population with any kind of significant/meaningful level of investment into bitcoin.?

Or do you believe that bitcoin's current adoption level reflects the fact that so many of us current HODLers knew that it was going to be easy-peasy to get richie relatively quickly from investing into bitcoin .. and therefore many of us leveraged down (like a boss) and went from $10k to $1 million in a matter of no time, right?  

Maybe you should also suggest whether you believe that it is too late to get into bitcoin?  And there are so many of us current HODLers who are just waiting to dump on the newbies?  Or do you believe that newbies should be getting into bitcoin rather than whining about how supposedly easy-peasy it was for the earlier bitcoin adopters?

Even as someone who has been in bitcoin since late 2013, it seems to me that on an ongoing basis there are a decisions that each of us have to make about what ware we going to do on a personal level.  Are we going to make a bitcoin-related plan that is tailored to our own personal circumstances?  Are we going to invest in bitcoin?  How much are we going to invest into bitcoin (if any?) and what kind of strategy are we going to follow?  Are we going to try to learn along the way and try to tweak our strategy(ies) as we learn? Are we going to get distracted into shitcoins or into various shitcoin nonsense talking-points? Are we going to keep our eye on the prize?  Are we going to sell too much too early because we panic?

You must be doing pretty well, Zedpastin, no?  You did not suffer in the past 5 1/2 years-ish since you have been a form member?   Maybe your no-suffer strategy is superior to what I have been seeing over the years in these here parts (even with some of the seemingly strong-handed BTC HODLers) , and there might be some needs for you to share some possible secrets that you have on this "bitcoiners = no suffer" topic?  I am sure that a lot of us here would like to know how such a thing is done (and if it is possible), and also whether such "bitcoiners = no suffer" strategy(ies) is (are) replicable for mere mortals.

Wordyman!!

Yep.


In the short run, sentiment could be something to play with momentum that it might create (or exacerbate), and then at some point, trade to the opposite..


Probably all of us contradict ourselves from time to time... and sometimes do not explain how we arrived at a conclusion.. and sometimes people do not want to explain.. just pronounce what they see or even leave the conclusion blank.


I can see why there might be some circumstances that you want to trade something that you believe that you see and others do not see it.. there can be some advantage to that... but then motives could be question if you talk about it after you made it but before it executes completely.. aka talking your book.


Sometimes those tactics will work, and sometimes they do not.  Many of us know what is Martingale betting, but might not realize that we are doing it while in the process.. but even you said that you are willing to take the chance of betting the farm and losing it all..


Of course, some peeps will just continue to stack away some portion of their gains on a regular basis so the off limits can grow, yet the trading part could grow too, at least in theory.  At  least in theory both could be growing with the passage of time.


no argument here


It can sometimes take a real long time for matters to play out.. and then maybe concessions that a strategy can be tweaked.. so sometimes you cannot really blame another for sticking with a position, even if you may have already said it is a losing strategy.. they still want to play it out and it could take years.


Some peeps do realize that they have been spinning their wheels after a certain point, but sometimes you can still get benefits out of alternative approaches and practices, even if they are way more work and the profits levels end up being very similar.


Fair enough.. good to account for the comparison points.


I would imagine that the most successful traders will start with smaller amounts and work their way up and then tweak their strategies as they go, including how much of their portfolio they allocate to long term holdings (and to which assets/currencies) and how much to trading.



Of course part of my point was not exactly where the BTC market was, but where I was in terms of starting out with already having had accumulated an investment portfolio over 25 years prior to getting into BTC.. so that affected me and my approach.. but then couple those facts with where the market was at and where it appeared to be going affected decisions about how to proceed and at what point to stop or to change strategies or to consider having enough allocated... but still keep buying even though I felt that I had enough.  

I did find that once I felt that I had enough, I was less inclined to FOMO.. but I was NOT completely immuned from FOMOing.  It takes a while to get to those positions, and having more than 25 years of investing already.. did help.. and so some newbies try to compare themselves to that, and sure they might not need 25 years to ge there, but they might not be able to get there in less than 10 years, even if they think that they are there. they are not.. but they might not realize until later that they were not sufficiently stacked and staked for UPpity.. .. so there can be questions regarding how much is being worked with and how it is allocated and whether it should be reallocated based on individual circumstances that justify differing answers dependent on the person and his/her circumstances.


Of course, the more complicated the approach, the more ways it could go wrong, too.


I think that is what I am trying to do, too.... I am setting up my orders in such a way that attempts to match my don't give a shit level.


Of course, balancing / leveraging of use of debt can be helpful too..  so you do not necessarily need to buy a house with cash if you are using the cash in other potentially more profitable ways.


Sometimes we can see where we think it is going, then it breaks that path.  I surely am not wedded to any direction or any particular path forward, even if I assign higher probabilities to some scenarios versus other scenarios.


We already had a 56% drop in a bull market, so I would speculate that a bear market is subjected to higher drops.

Just imagine if the price ended up going up to $1.5 million in this cycle, and there would be no surprise to have another 80% correction.. or even if the BTC price only did a whimpy $750k, a 80% correction only brings us back down to $150k.... You can call it a supercycle or whatever, but I still would say that something like that would be business as usual, just dealing with BIGGER numbers but similar percentages.. .. and sure maybe volatiltity would go down too so the UPs would not be as high and the LOWs would not be as low, but that is kind of an inevitable development too with a growing asset class, so I am not even sure if it is reasonable to refer to it as a supercycle, even if such an UP without very much down could happen, but in my thinking it is a big so what?   I still have a lot of BTC no matter if it happens or not.

But surely there are some folks who might ONLY have 1 BTC or even 0.21BTC, and they are kind of hoping for BTC prices to go to $1.5 million or some kind of outrageous UPpity in this cycle.. and nI am not even suggesting that it might not happen, but just that it does not seem to be very healthy to put too many cards in that scenario.. that may or may not happen... and the odds to me seem to be that BTC is going to likely continue to have both a lot of overshooting in both directions and wars that contribute to the overshooting at least for quite a while in the future, and if such wars and overshooting do not happen, then that is fine, too... but seems like a less likely scenarios to have a lovey dovey btclandia world without wars and overshooting.


I am fine with it.. but it seems to be only part of the formula and can be more emphasized with some people and circumstances as compared with others.


What do you mean by wrong?  because people are going to develop systems.. I suppose wrong could be failing/refusing to think about what they are doing, including investing too much and then panicking, no?

Tailoring is good, and attempting to learn along the way is also good.. Almost no matter what some mistakes are likely to be made....

In my thinking acting rather than waiting is good... at least set up your plan that would likely include some acting.

Let's say if you have no coins at all, well you better buy some no matter the price... and then plan from there.. I do not agree with plans that just say wait, unless it is really clear that downity is coming and inevitable (but almost never is downity inevitable - except maybe while it is happening.. and even then it could stop or reverse at any moment)...   it is almost never completely clear... so if you were to have $3k to invest but no coins at all, then invest $1k right away would likely be a good start and plan the other $2k for DCA and buying on dips.. and then go from there... in terms of tailoring and at least you are starting out with some stake "in the game.".. from the start, and yes, mistakes could be made because the BTC price might go down from the entry point, and I give no fucks about the price going down after an initial getting started investment, and hopefully you did not be t the whole farm on the initial investment, and fail/refuse to prepare for possible down.

In some sense, when you start to buy yo do not know which way the BTC price is going to go, and you ONLY find out with certainty that the BTC price is going down after it happens, but that should not stop you from investing and figuring out some further plans if you had not planned any details from the start.. we know that saying failing to plan is planning to fail, so some planning should be involved... rather than just going in blindly, even though there might be an initial quasi-blind gettin  started investment amount... just to get started..

Of course, there should be some individual tweaking of any BTC accumulation strategy that may later evolve to maintenance or liquidation.. but it starts out with accumulation, but it is quite good to get started right away, and even if you decide only to buy $100 right away and to set your other $2,900 up with buying on dips and DCA, then that is a decision that you could decide to make as well.. but in my opinion it is good to get the fuck off zero as soon as possible. and then go from there.  and yes, plenty of folks do not agree with me about that... and they believe that there is some kind of need to wait for a dip (that may or may not come), especially if such newbie that does not know shit except what mainstream media might be saying that there are good feelings that a dip is coming.... and yeah a dip is always coming, but it might not come.. and my point is we do not know, and when we come to BTC most of us already are 100% in fiat or fiat related investments, so it is not going to hurt much if anything to buy a wee bit of BTC right way and get your ass the fuck off of zero as soon as possible whether it is buying $100 or $1,000 while you are thinking about the next move(s) about what to do (if anything ) after that.

By the way, I had an uncle who I sent $10 of BTC in 2014, and then he bought $300 in 2016.. and then he sat on the amount until mid 2017, and then he sold all of it when BTC prices were around $3,500 (made some big money with nearly 6x profits) and he continues to be a no coiner.. because he failed/refused to continue to take a stake in it or to take much if any action besides one lump sum investing.  Peeps are going to peep... and sometimes do dumb stuff.


Ok... we are seeing a lot of these various odds of UP or down fairly similarly.. not exactly the same, but pretty close to the same in the whole scheme of things.


Of course, if someone is following your attempting to time the market strategy with small amounts, then such person can figure out if some variation of that style is comfortable for him/her or if s/he needs some other style that is more comfortable. .. and it could be some individually tailored variation of what you do that could evolve over time to be either more like what you do or to deviate into more of a a strategy that does not involve attempting to time the market.

For sure, you would not want someone just jumping in blindly in styles that attempt to time the market, and some people are more willing to attempt to learn than others, too.

I try to establish strategies that anyone can follow without really trying to time the market at all and just sucking up BTC no matter the price, but even with what I do, it still can take time for anyone to go through the whole process of figuring out his/her budget and then starting to accumulate bitcoin within goals that they create for themselves and tweaking along the way with the BTC accumulation strategies... and so as the earliest strategies might put more emphasis on DCA buying, but the lump sum buying and buying on dips can be involved from the start too, just depending on how much time the person would want to attempt to employ such BTC accumulation strategies rather than just blindly setting up DCA.. which also works white well for a lot of newbies.


 Yes.. learning along the way.


None of this sounds bad, really.. just a wee bit more complicated than focusing on BTC and DCA, lump sum and buy on dips.

I seem to be losing "fans" left and right.

I deny that those are all my words in that post.  

Deny

Deny

Deny.

#that's all

Whatevers.... we did be get MOAR richie, even if we might have been questioning if we be stuck when at $10k 11 months ago.. ..

And, then we also might have been really questioning if we be stuck below $4k (especially in late 2018 and early 2019).. but then May 2019.. kind of showed those of us who were paying attention that we not be stuck in DOWNity... did anyone here fail refuse to recognize that as a kind of confirmation of the bull market had happened around May 2019 when we crossed well above $6,500 and were on our way to $13,880 in the coming 6 weeks, even if we had not known it at the time..

Did we even consider that our lovely dovey lil bull market has been playing out (aka happening) for about 2.5 years.. so far (and as I type this post). and such bull market does not seem to be over yet... does it? does it?  Anyone?

Do we get another 4 months of UPpity or quasi-UPpity out of this bad boy.. or maybe there is another 10 to 12 months for the top of this particular cycle to be reached?  Whatcha think?  Whatcha gonna do?

You are going to be hard-pressed to have singenings that include me complaining about where we are at, where we have been, or where we seem to be going.


Just looks like Pokemon to me.


I hate when that happens.  Throws me off, for sure.


No one can really object to wearing hats.  Now, watching cat videos would be another story.


Surely.. not a pleasant experience.


Something sounds familiar (and comfortable) about that.

I am thinkening about who would not want to read (and talk when fit-in-able) about lillie fiend?  Answer me that.

Sometimes I feel as if I am just making shit up, and I have no grounding.  I have been especially beaten up by some technical analysis guys on this point for proclaiming that I am not grounded enough or that I am not in a position to meaningfully criticize some of their technical analysis because I don't adequately understand what the fuck they are saying (and surely there is some truth in some of those criticisms).


hahahahahaha   One of the great things about that, is that he is not faking it (at least as far as I can tell)


I'm not even sure.  Sometimes, I just am already inclined to say something on a topic or the post of another person just causes me to consider another angle that might need to be pointed out.



You are right.. Tone and appearance of genuineness can change the response.

Sometimes I overly go on the aggressive because I notice some kind of dig that might need to be addressed.  Other times, I might not get aggressive, even if someone might have intended something as a kind of "dig."  I am not sure if I want to provide any examples, but sometimes a person will insult in a certain kind of angle that just comes off as so desperate that it is humorous, and it ONLY needs to be responded to in a humerous way rather than really taking it seriously.  I just thought of a decent example... several members used to go after my avatar quite a bit, and seemingly in serious ways trying to get under my skin, and really it should be quite difficult to let those kinds of attacks get to you.. My avatar has been less of a topic in recent times, and probably the hat, glasses and the recently added laser eyes kind of obscures it, anyhow.  



Some of us are people.  


Actually, you are correct that there can be some humor in the fact that certain kinds of price theory themes seem to come up at similar times... so sure there might be some questions regarding how much weight to give them.. and another aspect is that some people do give some weight to public sentiments (even if they might be wrong) they sometimes can drive price, especially on the margins.. or to exacerbate an already existing condition.


For sure.. I would not proclaim that sometimes opportunities are just screaming for persons in a position to jump in at the right time (and could be bitcoin or some random shitcoin.. but sure, about 97.5% of the time I don't play around with shitcoins, even I might feel some decent confidence in an opportunity.. but I cannot say that I have never dabbled a wee bit.. just for funzies.. but frequently my head hurts to even think about matters like shitcoins, even if there seems to be some kind of funzies opportunity that could stack some sats or potentially send some kind of ideological message.


It can be fun to share ideas with folks, even if you might not be on the same page.. and for sure, sometimes the information does not sink in or they keep talking about blah blah blah .. which seems irrelevant, but hard to get the ideas out of their head, even if seeming to have had provided slam dunk evidence and arguments against.


I had not remembered seeing that kind of flip-floppiness coming from him before, so I was a bit surprised.. and so that back and forth could have been an aberration, perhaps?


You are right.. you have probably explained yourself previously on these kinds of points.

I can kind of relate.  For example, I consider that I really am ONLY opening and closing longs, but I try to set my longs in such a way that I don't give hardly any shits which way the BTC price goes, so even if the bullishness or bearishness of the short-to-medium bitcoin price dynamics changes, my orders do not tend to change until they start to seem like they are starting to get kind of far removed from my overall feeling of the situation.. so every once in a while I will go in there and totally restructure everything to make me feel more better overall... but in the whole scheme of things, it will not be a whole hell of a lot of a difference, and sometimes I can just go in and change a few orders on one side or another, and I am back into emotionally neutral territory.



Yep, even though I don't use leverage I do understand the concept, and I understand how the orders could be structured in ways that they are in the ball park of profitable no matter what (but they are leaning more towards one direction or another depending upon your analysis of likely price direction).


I put quite a bit of value in capital preservation, so the idea of losing great amounts of capital does not rub me very well.


To each their own.. I would not be able to personally play that kind of style very well, but I could see that if I wanted to play that game, then I could take 20% or more of my total bitcoin portfolio value and start to fuck around with it without hardly giving any shits (because there are already so many profits in there), and in that regard, I could completely categorize that money as already just taking from profits..   By the way, without getting into too many accounting details, there are ways that I could categorize my whole damned bitcoin portfolio as profits, and just start fucking round with all of it because I have decided to categorize it as such.

In any event, I just cannot see myself changing my style, yet perhaps if I was 1) younger, 2) looking for an adventure in life or 3) having some desires to learn some new skills with a decent amount of capital, I could likely cause my fuck you potential stash of 0.21 BTC to go to zero.. hahahahaha.  

I am not going to do it.. just having thought-experiment fun, here.  


Sometimes it could pay off to take some chances.  I am NOT going to say that I never do.  

That reminds me.  About 3 months ago (right around the time of the May crash), I recall talking with one of my cousins about various shitcoins that I happen to still have from 2016-ish/2017, and in some sense I was trying to poo-poo the value of those stupid shitcoins and that I did not care about them because they were worthless to me, but as I was describing them, I could tell that I probably was saying too much, and I was NOT even trying to be bragging - because each piece of shitcoin that I had been describing as being unimportant to me had value in my wallet of several times of all his shitcoin investments put together that he was making a BIG deal about, and he seem to have some envy about the shitcoins that I held and how profitable that they were, and I kept telling him that I considered each and everyone of those shitcoins to be worthless while his eyes were glazing over with envy both in terms of the quantity of value and the quantity of profits (in terms of dollars) that each of them had. as I was describing them.. and I said that I give no shits about those shitcoins... which was true... and still remains true because I have not really touched them and I did a quick look at them, and they seem to have retained their dollar value from late May to present.. and I still don't care about them.


Of course, level of certainty is something that moves, but if it is largely 50/50 for me, and just gravitating towards one side or another, then I am not fucking around with the slight changes, even if I had already said that my confidence about the bottom of $28,600 being "in" to currently be at about 63%, there is not a whole hell of a lot that I need to or want to change based on going from 50/50 three weeks ago and now up to in the ballpark of 63% currently.  

Sure maybe I can trade on that increased level of confidence in small ways such as going out and buying a steak dinner rather than eating chicken mcnuggets and also maybe I can get a wee bit more cocky, and sure there can be things that I can do on the margins, but I might not be making any kinds of major changes in what I am doing merely based on a move up in confidence from 50% to 63%.



I am more certain about describing something from the past than about what may or may not happen in the future.      But even describing the past might not be 100% if you don't know all the facts - and sure some might proclaim that the past is 100% regarding what actually happened, but your description, framing and how much weight to give to various causations may well be quite short of 100%.


The vast majority of normies are quite advantaged by DCA when they pursue it.  The vast majority cannot beat DCA returns, especially in bitcoin.

Let's use uie-pooie as a specific example, and just to have somewhat round numbers, we will use 4 years as your investment timeline.  Of course, the longer the better, but I cannot recall if you had earlier dates that you could proclaim that you quasi-seriously started looking into bitcoin, so 4 years and 2017.. seem to be as good of a time as any.. just to provide us some  ballpark ideas regarding performance that you could have gotten with DCA-ing and not fucking around .. the whole time..

$100 per week would have cost you about $21k invested, you would have accumulated nearly 2.54 BTC, and so you would have had a return of nearly 5x. Sure that is not very exciting.  You likely need more time in the market, but hopefully you have at least 5x returns at this point..

Let's take my nearly 8-year timeline as an example, then (with a December 1, 2013 starting date).  $100 per week would have cost about $40k invested, and an accumulation of nearly 46 BTC, and my timeline should have nearly 51x returns.   Surely those kinds of returns are a wee bit more exciting, right?  Hard to beat those kinds of returns, no?



I don't know.  There seem to be quite a few guys who are still in their BTC accumulation stages, and we have newbies coming to this forum and this thread all the time.  I am not criticizing guys for being in such a stage of BTC accumulation because it can take a real long time to either get close to fuck you status or to get to a point in which BTC accumulation is NOT as much central to the formula of what is being done.

By the way, I had already kind of considered myself in a kind of fuck you stage when I started in bitcoin.. not like a high level but kind of in a comfortable position with my various fiat investments and the cashflow being generated from such.  So in late 2013 when I got into bitcoin, I had initially just pursued a kind of getting a stake exposure, while I attempted to study the bitcoin matter, but by late 2014, I had established that my target stake was going to be 10% of my total investment portfolio, and that I had largely reached that stake by late 2014.

Maybe you might still consider me to be a little bit goofy and torn because even though I felt that I had enough of a stake by late 2014, I still continued to accumulate through 2015.. and maybe I did not really start to truly consider myself to more largely evolved into a kind of maintenance state until early 2017.. but part of the problem is that none of the stages of accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation are 100% in isolation because there can be combination of tactics even if dominantly I felt that I had already established a "good enough" stake in late 2014... but I still fucked around.


I understand that volatility is a friend of traders, but I though that volatility in both directions would be useful for traders.. but sure, whatever floats your boat in terms of if you believe (or have concluded) that you have DOWNity directional strengths.


Gosh.. I don't even recall conjecturing in recent times about the odds that I believe that a new ATH will be reached this year.  My conjecture would have to be less than 50%.. because I hate to be presumening too much.. a new ATH from here ($47,350) would be like a 40% price increase... A new ATH this year does remain of the most likely of scenarios, maybe at something like 39% odds...  hahahahaha.. fuck I am a conservative twat, sometimes.

Just think about it.. I probably should not even say anything.. odds for downity and a new bottom 37% (but that does not mean that we do not recover.. so maybe getting stuck in downity would be less than 25%.. then maybe there are other scenarios that would add up to 36% that causes various forms of ups, downs and sideways in the BTC price and no new ATH to play out for this year.. and then the remaining odds of a new ATH happening in this year end up being something like 39%-ish..

Sure I am pulling these percentage approximations out of my ass but whatever, I hate to put too high of odds on getting automatically richie.. otherwise, then maybe that would justify my engaging in stupid behaviors that are not in line with reality odds of all the things that could happen that put a new ATH for this year to be amongst the most probable of scenarios, but still ONLY in the 39%-ish territory.. and then when I consider the matter in this way, I am more likely to be acting like a prudent investor rather than a gambling who assigns fantasy levels of certainty to the future that are not realistic and do not properly, prudently and adequately prepare lil selfie for both UPpity and Downity in both psychological and financial ways.



In my humble bumble opinion, not getting a new ATH in this calendar year does not necessarily trigger that we are in a bear market, even if it may well take the bull market much longer than expected to play out.  There are powerful forces that could keep this bad boy down for way longer than many of the HODLers would prefer, and may well even cause a decent amount of shakening of more weak hands.  I am not very likely to change my strategy, even if it could take 18 more months to get to a new ATH.. sure an outlier scenario.. but I am pretty much o.k. and prepared financially and psychologically with "riding this pig wherever it takes me" (right billyjoelallen?)



Sure .. good to be able to reassess.


I am glad that you feel that you are functioning at a decently high level.


I take supercycle theories with a pretty damned large grain of salt.. and sure there are various scenarios that such supercycle theories could happen, and until they do, we have our already currently existing and seemingly valid BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption, and those are not broken, as far as I can tell. and supercycle is already kind of contained therein.. within the exponential s-curve adoption portion of the three-way combo... no need to get into specific sorcery status when the models already exist and I personally give few shits about specifics while riding this pig.


Yes... you be crazy.



Bitcoin is not gold.



I am glad that you are keeping these matters in mind but not allowing them to change too much in what you are doing.


Fuck altcoins.. but whatever do what you do.


I surely get the lump sum investing thesis.

Let's say that you had $20k extra dollars, and when the BTC price was at $10k, you decided to use half of it to buy bitcoin at $10k and then somewhere along the line you noticed that the price was going up.. so you just decided to wait it out, and the price gets to $65k and then crashes back down to $30k.. so at some point in the $30k to $40k price arena, you might decide to put your other $10k in.. or maybe $5k or maybe in the past 10 months, you got another $10k of extra cash, so then you have $20k... so you just put $10k in or you put the whole $20k in .. Guys are going to come to differing conclusions about how to play it and I would likely divide such stash into the three categories of 1) DCA, 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips... So, I am not even sure which method would play out better over time, but each of us pick a method that is comfortable for our own situation.


If you are saying drop 50% again from $47,300?  At this particular time, I would give that about a 25% chance of happening in this calendar year, rather than a 10% chance.. but whatever...  we are not too far apart on that one.


Sure, that is how you roll and how you play your cards, and if it works for you, then so be it.. I am not saying it is necessarily a worse way of going about things, even though sometimes I am not really clear what you mean or how it might apply to a normie, but no problema if it has worked for you and seems to be continuing to work for you.


Do you believe that your method (level of lunacy) is easy to learn?  Asking for a friend?

 



We are all weird, once you get to know us.



Of course, there is some purposefull playing of these kinds of weak hands and lack of preparedness for either price direction.


For sure, you were likely a minority.. because a lot of peeps said that they had not expected anything like that.

Of course, the way my system works, I was buying all the way down from about $55k to about $29k.. but still not comfortable, even though I had buy orders down to about $15k.. but the level of how far my buy orders went down, too based on some projects that I had entered into.. so still waiting to tell that story since I am still moving around value for the past 3 months.. blah blah blah.


It always seems to be better to be ahead of the game, if you can.. so if you have decent levels of confidence then the price just will end up coming to you, and sure it could take a while to play out and I doubt that there won't need to be some shaking in confidence, but sure, you might have orders that largely stay in place or you just make some minor tweaks here and there or alternatively, you have to wait for once scenario to play out before you set up your orders for the following scenario, but still the price is coming to you so you are less emotional about the whole matter.


You are starting to sound like me with some of those whimpy percentages that you are throwing out...

 


Fair enough.



Lovely hat.  

Something seems wrong with your "love" theory, and also how much importance you are placing on the reciprocal nature theory.  I am not suggesting that neither of those exist, but you seem to be give quite a bit of weight to those ideas - that I consider a bit much..

Also, something about your theory of redistribution is off.  I do understand that members have mentioned redistribution as their motives, but I doubt that too many members give as many shits about redistribution as they are making out to be... either the post that is being merited (or the member) is good and deserving of merit or not.. I personally give not too many shits about whether they redistribute (even though again, redistribution is not a non-zero factor, but it just does not carry a lot of weight in my thinking about whether or not to send an smerit or perhaps a few smerits.

I'm not saying nuttin. (besides what I just said) (for now)

Of course, we see these matters of volatility mixed with "seeming stability" play out in a lot of ways, yet I don't tend to recall a lot of periods in which the stability gets stuck at the top of the range for very extended periods without ongoingly pushing UPpity - but if we get something like a 10% to 20% correction, then I could see "stability" play out at that point, while people whine about such then stability.

Sure there are always exceptions.. and no king daddy would want to be too predictable..

yet

Right now, I consider that we are and have been moving UPpity for the past several weeks from the lower $30ks until our current bouncing around in the $45k to $48k -ish range.. and any of those kinds of price moves are still at the top of the price range and really no expectations to be sticking around in our current price range for very long.. it does not even guarantee that the direction will be UPpity from here... even if we should be able to feel higher levels of confidence regarding the bottom of $28,600 being "in"..


...... and what more could a guy (or a gal, or a bot, for that matter) ask for, without coming off as presumptuous (or overly greedy or lacking in patiencening?)?

That's what she said.


Oh shit!!!!!!

I was afraid that we might have some volatility..

That sucks.

We are going to $60k by the 18th or the 19th?  Fuck..

Then a dippening back to what?

$50k?

$45k?  those fucks.  Always manipulating and causing crashenings.

This is getting real old guys.  Why can't we be stable (or have nice things?)?

I am just referring to the somewhat lack of a market for bitcoin in the first few years, and also how much of a niche that it was in the earlier days - even though it is intended as a utility that is meant to serve the whole world.

Of course, when we go into the future, we are going to continue to look back at bitcoin and say that it was more niche then than it is now, because bitcoin is quite likely to be constantly expanding in very exponential kinds of ways for many years to come.

If you want to attempt to fairly represent asset classes and to fit them in their respective categories, just consider it a wee bit more fair to cut off those first few years.. even though I understand and appreciate that factually, people who invested in bitcoin did exponentially outperform those other assets and any other asset class.. bitcoin still was very niche at that time and bitcoin is an invention that is much more than any of those other assets in terms of it protocol level of innovation.. more comparable to the invention of the internet.. but at the same time the internet did not have a value token attached to it in order to incentivize development and hoarding (not meaning to use hoarding in a negative context).

Whoaza!!!!!   2019 - a blast from the past.

I don't know how you completely get rid of bias from reporting, but I know that there are a lot of people who have good intentions in terms of their own behavior and attempt to fairly present all sides of matters. 

Sure, they might get jaded (or they might not even know their own biases) or some of their presentations might get squashed by higher ups, and surely one of the new dynamics of on the ground journalism by novices on the interwebs can sometimes keep the BIGGER journalists in check - even though we do have some problems in terms of challenges to the funding of investigatory journalists, but even that is not completely disappearing - but as individual consumers we also have responsibilities to attempt to develop and engage in our own critical thinking about various information that we find, and I doubt that being unbelieving of everything or concluding that everyone is out to get you is going to be very helpful in regards to your employment of your own abilities to sort the better sources of information.