Personally, in the whole scheme of things including the fact that there are decent co-integrations of the stock to flow data and that demand can be presumed to be somewhat constant (and kind of on an upward trajectory, even though the model does not specifically address demand beyond kind of presuming it to go up), I consider stock to flow to be relatively conservative, even though it does have some seemingly BIG ass numbers, but it does suffer the error of projecting a kind of mean.. which still may well be quite a bit less helpful on a personal level in terms of attempting to account for what we have experienced to be ongoing great levels of past volatility which also should help us to reasonably presume that pretty extreme levels of BTC price volatility are likely to continue into the future.  

What else would be expected beyond price volatility during a war (even if there seems to be some passive-aggressiveness in terms of some of the war tactics that are being employed and likely to continue to be deployed)?

No need to start to get excited until the correction is around 12%.

Presuming $46,788 as our local top, a 12% correction would be around $41,200, and once the correction gets to 15% ($39,800-ish), then it is time to panic.


I know that sometimes I might not be very clear in terms of my ongoing desires to attempt to not get overly excited by BTC spot prices (especially peakening tops), so you realize that I have been attempting to make these BTC value projections based on ongoing anticipation of BTC extreme bottoms and not been going by spot price to attempt to fairly assess value (yes I know that people are hesitant to assess BTC value based on anticipated extreme bottoms), but on a personal level I consider it to be safer, especially for anyone who may well be considering NOT engaging in any kinds of extreme diversifications out of BTC and instead deciding to retain a lot of their value in BTC on an ongoing basis and in spite of ongoing and seeming inevitable price volatility.


I did it on Excel, so sure there could be a mistake in the formulas that I inputted..



For sure if the chart is referring to bottoms (and presumptively extreme bottoms), then if the extreme bottom is $1million, the actual spot price or even the top would potentially (and even likely) be quite a bit higher than the listed bottom prices that correspond with each of the dates on the chart.

You likely realize that I tend to be a bit of a critic of those who are making BTC price predictions (especially short term), so for sure, I like to attempt to clearly state my various presumptions, so in that regard, if any of the presumptions change along the way (based on either facts or logic), then the projections are going to need to be tweaked to account for the changes in presumptions (actual on the ground facts / logic changes).


Hahahahaha

Of course, you are joking a wee bit dude (I can tell by the rolling of the eyes part), but really if you think about that there are relatively conservative estimates of getting a 20x price increase in 20 years, that is still a pretty damned decent return, so even just placing 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio into BTC has decent chances of outperforming other assets in your portfolio..

Surely, more whimpy or hesitant folks would error on the side of 1%, and more aggressive investors may well shoot for 10%.. and still people who study BTC the asset class might decide to go even more aggressive, even though a 10% allocation will likely still provide a considerable amount of wealth - and not even be outrageous in terms of overall allocation percentage.

Ok....  Here it is. By popular demand:

First of all some underlying presumptions that can be individually tweaked is that $2 million is entry level fuck you status, and that in order to prepare for inevitable ongoing BTC volatility, we try to consider the value of our wealth (that is kept in bitcoin) based on reasonable (but still potentially extreme) BTC bottom prices.

Since I am presuming that currently we are in a bull market and BTC price are actually nearly 3x above the 208-week moving average (208-week moving average is about $14,500 as I type - and current price is $44k-ish), I am using the 104-week moving average as our BTC price starting point, and then projecting a 20% per year price increase in the 208-week moving average (and sure 20% per year is conceded to be fairly aggressive in terms of the increase per year and may need to be accounted for in the event that the 208-week moving average ends up underperforming those kinds of tentative BTC price bottom appreciation expectations)..  

Based on our current 3x price above the 208-week moving average..including that we are likely currently in a bull market for anywhere between 5 months to 16 months longer, I am also presuming that at some point (perhaps within 6 to 12 months) the 208-week moving average will catch up to the current projection in the chart, even though I had started the projection from a wee bit above the 104-week moving average (starting at $22k and the 108-week moving average is about $21,300... as I type this post)

Even though I like to use the 208-week moving average as the anticipated overall low BTC price points in all markets, I am currently considering the 104-week moving average to be a decent tentative accurate guide to the BTC bottom price when we are in bull markets (if it is possible to reasonably assess when we might be in bull markets - including the tentative conclusion that now we are within such a bull market).

Note.. I removed some of the dates/prices in the middle of the below chart for ease of management/formatting (and then dates that remained in the chart were including 4-year and 10-year increments).

Start $                               StartDate                        % gain /time                   Time (every 6 months)                    Goal
$22,000.00                          8/12/21                         10.00%                            182.6 (days)                                       $2,000,000
            
   Date                                    BTC bottom Price               gain/time                               BTC#/Goal
                                             (Extreme=not likely)
   8/12/21                               $22,000.00                        $2,200.00                              90.90909091
   2/10/22                               $24,200.00                        $2,420.00                             82.64462810
   8/12/22                               $26,620.00                        $2,662.00                             75.13148009
   2/10/23                               $29,282.00                        $2,928.20                             68.30134554
   8/12/23                               $32,210.20                        $3,221.02                             62.09213231
   2/11/24                               $35,431.22                        $3,543.12                             56.44739301
   8/11/24                               $38,974.34                        $3,897.43                             51.31581182
   2/10/25                               $42,871.78                        $4,287.18                             46.65073802
   8/11/25                               $47,158.95                        $4,715.90                             42.40976184
   [edited out 2026-2028]
   2/10/29                               $91,899.46                        $9,189.95                             21.76291358
   8/11/29                               $101,089.41                        $10,108.94                             19.78446689
   2/10/30                               $111,198.35                        $11,119.83                             17.98587899
   8/11/30                               $122,318.18                        $12,231.82                             16.35079908
   2/10/31                               $134,550.00                        $13,455.00                             14.86436280
   8/12/31                               $148,005.00                        $14,800.50                             13.51305709
   2/10/32                               $162,805.50                        $16,280.55                             12.28459736
   8/11/32                               $179,086.05                        $17,908.60                             11.16781578
   2/9/33                               $196,994.65                        $19,699.47                             10.15255980
   8/11/33                               $216,694.12                        $21,669.41                             9.22959982
       [edited out 2034-2036]
   2/9/37                               $422,275.53                        $42,227.55                             4.73624407
   8/11/37                               $464,503.09                        $46,450.31                             4.30567643
      [edited out 2038-2040]
   2/9/41                               $905,185.11                        $90,518.51                             2.20949282
   8/11/41                               $995,703.62                        $99,570.36                             2.00862983
    [edited out 2042-2044]
   2/9/45                               $1,940,344.68                        $194,034.47                             1.03074470
   8/10/45                               $2,134,379.14                        $213,437.91                             0.93704064

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

Which big institutions bought bitcoin? how much did they buy? how do you know that they bought?  some countries are contemplating coming in too.. no?  early stages of that?

By the way, the hoarding of bitcoin is likely going to cause the average normie to be quite well off with his/her 0.21BTC or whatever level of BTC s/he is able to accomplish - presuming that some normies are going to have some real difficulties getting up to owning a whole BTC, especially if some of them are ONLY able to invest around $100 per month or some other modest amount...

Just imagine if some somewhat financially struggling normie starts to take steps of setting up an account and then just dedicatedly pooling his/her $100 per month to buy bitcoin, and maybe in a few years can increase to $200 or even $500 a month, and maybe after 10 years of ongoingly buying bitcoin, s/he might get up to 0.5 BTC or maybe even have some abilities to lump sum some extra cashflow from time to time, and then get up to a whole BTC after 10 years.  My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status, and by 2041, it could take 2 BTC to reach such fuck you status.. of course, my formula is pretty conservative and based on the 208-week moving average.  I could provide an update if anyone is interested in seeing my latest projections.. but of course, you can make your own projections too (it seems that I am changing mine on a fairly regular basis.. and not even sure if they are getting better, rather than just different from previous projections).

Bitcoin's innovation is NOT because of it being digital, even though its digitalness has allowed the facilitation of digital scarcity, which had never been achieved prior to bitcoin's various ways of incorporating proof of work across a network that could be verified and confirmed by peers.

There are lot of folks who would like you and me (us) to believe that there is some kind of magic in the digital aspects of money, but there are a whole hell of a lot of snake oil salesmen out there that want to either distract you into believing in their product or failing/refusing to recognize the true innovations of bitcoin - that are quite likely going to continue to exist in spite of various hard, social and even descriptive attacks on bitcoin.

Sure, if you want to get distracted into a variety of technical mumbo jumbo and various digital projects or even conceptualizing bitcoin as merely another one of many "digital" peers, no problem, but hopefully on a personal level you are creating a decent amount of stock and stack in bitcoin before getting too distracted by various other digital systems that may or may not complement bitcoin.. even though some people say that everything ends up being good for bitcoin (whether attack or not), so sure you can play with your various shitty projects that you want to erroneously conceptualize as bitcoin's equal, and even attack bitcoin in a variety of ways with poor amorphous and inadequate descriptions of it, but in the end, value is still going to gravitate into bitcoin and you can take the long route of playing around with other projects that you believe are very similar to bitcoin or the shorter route that at least recognizes bitcoin as our savior king daddy in terms of actual foundational values.      Perhaps you will thank me later.

Oh gawd.... 

What's worse?  Coming up with your own number or quoting a lame study without employing any critical thinking?

I am not opposed to small sample sizes, but surely the outcome of this survey shows that the sample is not even close to representative if they are concluding that 17% of adult americans own "at least a share" of bitcoin whatever that means? - (it could mean owning 1 satoshi, no?)...

I surely would not poo poo if most Americans bought bitcoin with their stimulus checks, or even if 10% of them had, but we know that did not happen, even if some (maybe 1% or 2% may have)...

Seems like you and I may well be on a similar page, Lucius, yet I will just repeat that there seems to be an agenda in terms of overstating the level of adoption of bitcoin, and surely frequently there are desires to treat bitcoin like a mature market (asset class) or to suggest that it's run has already happened and minimize the actual fact that bitcoin is in the midst (more likely early stages) of exponential s-curve adoption, and there is still a lot of room to go.. and also in terms of portfolio size, there are very few people who likely have even 1% or even better yet 5% of their portfolio allocation in bitcoin... and we are even lucky if we can find more than 10 million people who actually know what bitcoin is even amongst current owners.... but whatever.. people can believe whatever they want to believe, and it is not even any kind of actual facts that I am able to gather either regarding actual levels of bitcoin ownership/adoption, so anyone of us who are trying to estimate bitcoin ownership/adoption levels do have to rely on a variety of sources including things like surveys, address sizes, exchange information and things like that.

Of course, that's an @xhomerx10 specialty.


Look at you, Save the RF...

Almost acting like an adult.    


Are you a troll/shill?

Maybe you have a point?  perhaps?

What's your point of view on the topic beyond presenting your vague question?


Lookie uie poo-ie..  


Really living it up.


 



It seems to me that you are exaggerating a wee bit, even if perhaps you did not start to invest into bitcoin until 2018-ish  - sometime after registering your account here.

One thing is knowing about bitcoin in 2009 or 2010, you are not saying that you knew about bitcoin then, are you?

And really no investment was really available in those earlier times - except mining and bitcoin largely did not have a price until mid-2010. and that was quite vague and weird (such as two pizzas for 10k bitcoin).. so I would not even have considered that there was any meaningful "investment" opportunity in the financialization sense of the word (not just talking about time to mine it or to involve yourself in BTC development or some other kind of investment) into bitcoin until perhaps 2011-ish.. and of course, more and more opportunities for financially "investing into bitcoin" came about with the passage of time.. and moreso maybe in 2013 when more exchanges came about such as Coinbase and Local bitcoins and some others began to become more available.... .. but even then.. still pretty damned niche of an investment - so sure.. somewhere between 2011 and 2013 seem to be about the earliest of days for financial investing into bitcoin - niche as it was  (unless you want to explain some other ideas about what you mean by missing out of investment opportunities into bitcoin by nearly 10 years..

So maybe if you say when you found out about bitcoin and describe the kinds of "investment" opportunities might have been available to you in your earliest days of exposure that you failed/refused to partake in...

Don't get me wrong, I am not proclaiming that you are totally off of the planet - because surely there are some particulars that you could likely flush out to bring better meaning to what you are describing - rather than some concepts that could be very easily misunderstood or even mislead people into thinking that there were real and meaningful investment opportunities in bitcoin in the early days beyond for the real geeks and internet nerd specialists (not suggesting any kind of denigration of the nerds).


Whenever there is some potential beating up of Biodom, you can count me in on that, even if I don't have any kind of clue about the topic.

 


Gosh.. comparing bitcoin research and virus research seems a stretch of a topic.. and who really wants to talk about some some 5-10 different currencies in this here lovey dovey bitcoin thread, unless perhaps we have some shitcoins that we feel like bashing.. along with bashing some Biodom fella.. killing two birds with one stone never hurt anything in the past, besides the birds.

 

I think that BTC accumulators who have a fairly modest BTC investment level that is at such a modest level that it could take them 10 to 20 years to potentially reach fuck you status (presuming something like $2 million as a kind of general tentative target entry-level fuck you status), there tends to be a kind of realization that even if bitcoin goes through some extensive dips, the best of their strategies is not to be attempting to screw around with attempts at selling and buying back lower.. but instead, just ongoing buying.. and sure, if they start to get close to their fuck you level (let's say higher than 50% or so), then maybe they can try to employ some more advanced strategies that largely attempt to preserve their vast majority of their principle, so they are not screwing around too much with putting their principle at risk.

Another thing that many of us longer-term bitcoiners have likely found (and gosh not even sure if I can truly count myself as a longer term bitcoiner because I am still a bit under 8 years of bitcoin investing), there can be periods of very strong compounding effects in bitcoin, so perhaps being 30% to 50% towards the accumulation goal (or value goal) can end up witnessing the goal seeming to be far away and then all of a sudden you are at or exceeding your goal in a matter of no time... just imagine feeling a kind of floundering while BTC prices were bouncing around largely between about $4k and $8k for a lot of times during 2018, 2019 and even into 2020, and even if the BTC was getting somewhere in the territory of having had accumulated something like 20 BTC.. and then feeling that those 20 BTC were not even worth a whole hell of a lot because they were like 10% to 20% of the investment target of $2 million (remember before 2020, I had largely been considering $1 million as entry level fuck you status, and sure even now there are some people who will feel content in transitioning into fuck you status with $1 million in value, but since March 2020, it seems much more prudent and much more generally applicable to suggest that $2 million is needed for entry level fuck you status).  

Anyhow, getting up to around 10% of fuck you status level with around 20 BTC and BTC prices getting to $10k  would have caused some concerns that the actual reaching of fuck you status was many years into the future, but then BTC's price spike up to $64,895 then would have shown those BTC to have reached a value that was about $1.3 million, which is really 65% of fuck you entry level status, but then they went back down to $30k ($600k, and 30% of the goal), and then currently at around $46k ($920k - nearly 50% of the goal).

By the way, given bitcoin's considerably great volatility that is likely in a kind of inevitability category, I surely have developed my own assessment of the value of my coins based on the 208-week moving average rather than based on all over the place BTC spot prices..  (call me a fuddy-duddy, if you must).  So the 208-week moving average is currently at about $14,500 (and tends to be moving up quite greatly in recent times), so with my presumption, fuck you status would not be reached based on current 208-week moving average price until you currently have about 138 BTC  ($2 million / $14,500).**  That kind of a conservative assessment of fuck you status seems safer to me, and I really would hate for anyone to prematurely enter fuck you status based on spot BTC prices and not having had adequately and meaningfully accounted for BTC's inevitable price volatility... so no one is going to save you if you prematurely pull the fuck you lever when you believe that you have reached fuck you status, and you had not made reasonable assessments of the actual sustainability of your wealth and the withdrawal system that you intend to follow that hopefully allows you to maintain a lifestyle that is at a level of your preferences - and hopefully within your budget that you can continue with it in a kind of perpetual way, if you were to be so lucky as to live so long (which of course, considering lifespan and death are additional considerations)....  

**By the way, the fact that we both seem to be in a bull market and the fact that the current spot price is about 3x the 208-week moving average, it may also be prudent to use the 104-week moving average as a jumping off point for the current anticipated bottom (which is nearly $22k), and even project ahead with a 20% per year appreciation of the 208-week moving average while using the current 104-week moving average of $22k as a starting point... In that regard, the current fuck you status would be reached with about 91 BTC, and the projection ahead to 2025 (4 years from now) would take about 42.5 BTC based on about a 20% per year projected increase in the 208-week moving average (which may or may not end up playing out so aggressively - or it might end up playing out more aggressively, time will tell).  

Anyone following these concepts and wants to see a chart?  Let me know, I will supplement this post or create another post and link to this one if anyone wants to see how the anticipated BTC bottom prices project out.


How about you, MIldic1c? 

Have you followed some kind of a similar plan like your friend had suggested to you?

One thing that I frequently recommend is that a person make some of the initial preparations of setting up accounts and surely starting somewhat small to get used to it, but of course, sometimes when newbies engage in their earliest stages of analyzing their personal situation and even figuring out how much they are able to spare to invest per week or month, they will sometimes learn that they can be more aggressive and even front load their investment into BTC a bit.

Of course, there are some people who are able to figure out that their personal circumstances do not put them into a position in which they are really able to front load their investment into BTC.. and therefore, they end up just doing what they can in terms of maybe something less aggressive - even something like $25 per week or $100 per month can end up adding up to a decent amount invested 5-10 years down the road and without really putting any BIG dent on other cashflow matters/concerns that newbies to bitcoin might have.

Ah ha!!!!

Had not even realized such level of tardiness....

 


Better late than never, as they say... nice to have both days there.. for sure

I am a little bit opposed (and annoyed) by your use of the word cryptocurrencies here, partly because it seems that such use of the term muddies the waters regarding what the fuck are we talking about, and it is NOT like I am really opposed to the conclusions that some people might make regarding a need to diversify out of bitcoin, but learn about what is bitcoin first and what differentiates bitcoin from those various other cryptocurrencies before screwing around with them, so in that regard, I am opposed (and annoyed) by ongoing perpetuation of ignorance that seems to exist when any of us employ the use of such an amorphous term when bitcoin really is the one making the longer term strong case for hedging against various dollar based legacy investments whether stocks, bonds, precious metals such as gold or silver, investment properties (including home) and perhaps some other ways that people might consider their money to be invested (such as in businesses).

Having attempted to clarify that, for sure many of us already recognize that there is a lack of conscious practice in terms of focusing on setting some money aside rather than spending it all and other ways of investing to attempt to leverage time now for the future perhaps when you might want to have had built up a nest egg, and really I have my doubts about your attempts to make generational categorization conclusions about problems that extend across generations - and sure there have been some changes in the way jobs are structured and also ongoing changes in the extent to which debt might have been used historically versus how it has changed and could be used in current times, and so if peeps (normies) are able to get access to credit (which is another world-wide distribution of disparities), then frequently there can be ways to use credit to leverage investments (not necessarily increasing consumption through it, which is a BIG mistake that many people make).

Another thing is that bitcoin gives no fucks about various deficiencies that normies might have in terms of identifying it as an investment opportunity that is staring them in the face, and sure if they fail/refuse to jump on board earlier then those who jump on board are going to experience way more of the largest wealth generation than they will - and even "we" or bitcoin does not need them.. bitcoin is going forward to gravitate a vast majority of value into it, whether less enlightened normies jump on board and figure it out or not. 

I really am not sure about what kind of potential alternative investment strategy you might be suggesting to potentially be within our grasps to try to edumacate the ignorant masses, dragonvslinux, but the school of hard knocks which is life may well teach them that if they do not get on board at earlier times in their life, they may well NOT completely lose opportunities to prosper from bitcoin's incentivizing more responsible monetary systems, but the upside of their investment (and the compounding effect) is likely NOT as great the longer that they wait.  So I am of the school of thought to use any fucking kind of investment strategy that you like, and sure I don't mind helping to attempt to get people to figure out their personal situations in order that they can attempt to better know their own personal situations so that they can figure out how much to invest and how to invest, and so many times once they get passed the hurdles of figuring out their own personal financial and psychological situation, then they are going to be further along to being able to better employ a variety of investment strategies, including DCA, lump sum investing, buying on dip and HODL strategies.

Please note that while I am typing this post, I am kind of coming to the conclusion that part of your point (besides some of your getting wrapped into analysis of generational distinctions), dragonvslinux, may well be that normies have to figure out their own personal financial and psychological circumstances before even being able to know how much that they are even capable of investing, and surely I cannot disagree with those kinds of points that suggest that peeps/normies are not going to be in any kind of position to be able to invest in hardly shit if they do not engage in some kind of decent amount of assessment of their personal circumstances, to the extent those may have been some of the points that you may have been suggesting.

There is something that seems quite correct about what you are saying friends1980.

Seems to be a lot of generalizations when people are proclaiming that money is not going to bring happiness, and sure maybe many of us do not really know what we want, for example.

For sure there are a decent number of advantages in having a job, and getting some status and connection through having a job, and so some of us may well get to fuck you status, but not know what to do with our independence.



If we worked much of our lives and we maintained a kind of lifestyle, we should realize how much money we need to flow in order to maintain our previous lifestyle, but if all of a sudden, we no longer are tied down geographically because we do not have the job that ties us down, then surely those kinds of new factors could screw up our perceptions regarding some of the ongoing expenses that we would have after reaching fuck you status.. and so perhaps some recalculating and reconsidering might have to take place and those kinds of recalculations and reconsiderations might bring unhappiness of having to realize that it still takes some work to be able to manage funds and prepare to be able to sip piña colatas on the son of a beach.



For sure, there can be some satisfaction to be able to buy whatever you want.. but surely point taken about merely buying a bunch of things might not be enough to provide satisfaction/happiness in and of itself.


I bet that many of us here will end up attempting some kind of transition into richie status and to learn richie status, presuming that there are a decent amount of us who become quite a bit MOAR better off because of our involvement and ongoing involvement in bitcoin.

Sure, there can be problems with getting too richie too quickly, which might also cause some confusion in regards to cashing out too many BTC too soon and therefore valuing too much wealth in terms of fiat and realizing that there might not be a lot of good places to put such wealth.. so there are surely likely to be a quite a few variations regarding how richie status is treated whether already having had gotten to a kind of richie status or even getting closer to richie status and realizing along the way that some changes (improvements) are likely on the way.. or "in progress."

Some of us are already expressing some of our various ways of having more material satisfaction and even satisfaction of having more time to do what we want, whether relaxing or spending time with hookers, lambos and blow... not that we necessarily tell all of our sordid details on all wealth enjoyment topics.



I have noticed as well that women do cry sometimes, at least the human ones.

Presuming that you are building it rather than a premade, since you continue to mention lumber prices.. and sure, I suppose if you order a premade.. they are quoting you based on then lumber prices.

Do you already have your workers lined up, or you building it yourself?

Nothing like maintaining symmetry with the neighbor.  #nohomo

Critical thinking skills are neither easy to develop nor easy to employ in practice.

Even people that we know to be very smart will consider themselves to be engaging in critical thinking skills, but they somehow are not able to sort between substantive and material facts and to give proper (reasonably proper) weight to either questionable facts or questionable logic.

We are all guilty of these kinds of errors at some level because there are a large number of instances when we are not able to know all of the facts or logic and we have to make various kinds of leaps of faith to fill in some of those gappenings - of course, many of us will argue quite stringently, even while knowing that we are making some leaps of faith on some aspects of the position(s) that we take.


ououououououou



ououououououou




ououououououou





I would like to watch the BIG ONE when it comes too, and surely I would like to be told when it is happening (if it happens) and where to look, exactly (if there is a place to look).  


Thanks for that warning cAPS.     I am going to keep my eyes peeled for this one.

Yes.

Holy shit.

You believe that 46 million Americans own bitcoin?  Would those be significant and meaningful levels of ownership or some kind of token ownership of 10,000 satoshis?  How would they own such bitcoin?  on robinhood?  From where do you get that kind of a number of bitcoin owners?

Seems that 46 million would be something like 15% of the quasi-adult USA population, no? - if we considered that maybe there are about 300 million Americans over the age of 12 (presuming that NOT too many Americans below 12 own significant amounts of bitcoin - even if there are anecdotal cases of such happenings).

I would suspect that there could be 10% of Americans that have some exposure to bitcoin (not likely much if anything), but still probably less than 1-2% that have any kind of significant and meaningful stake in bitcoin - such as up to 5% or more of their investment portfolio (however they quantify their investment portfolio - or even have one).

Of course, there is geographical disproportionalities in bitcoin (whether we are referring to the USA or other parts of the world), and likely the worldwide levels of bitcoin adoption are even way smaller than they are in the USA.. , and even though I am kind of shooting my own numbers out of my ass, I tend to get a bit irritated when I see members suggesting that bitcoin adoption is at any kind of significant and meaningful levels, even if there is truth that there seems to be decent willingness for the bitcoin (and perhaps crypto, too - those shitcoining/scamming fucks) to be pretty damned vocal and influential in recent times, but the vocal activism and influentialness of bitcoin, to the extent it exist, is surely NOT coming based on widespread adoption of bitcoin, and in that regard, we quite likely remain early as fuck in terms of actual broader levels of popular bitcoin adoption, whether referring to the USA or other parts of the world which is even likely lower levels of bitcoin adoption, as I already mentioned.

I doubt that is the best way of thinking about how to tailorize bitcoin to individual circumstances and the particular opportunities that present themselves (especially to normies) through something like bitcoin.

I have outlined several times that people do not tend to have lump sums of cash that they are either hanging onto or that they would like to go into debt or that they would like to hang onto cash and try to time opportunities to enter into whatever investment.  Of course, a house is a bit of a different investment because of living in it, but it is still subject to the bullshit over-skewing of the importance of debt.. so currently there are all kinds of people and institutions hoarding housing because they are afraid to keep their value in cash or some other assets that are questionable in their fundamentals.

So, even though history can sometimes inform us about what we might want to do now, or what kinds of risks that we might want to take, one of the great things about something like bitcoin is that any of us (even the most normie of normies) can get into it with very little capital and we can customize our strategies and do not even have to qualify to become eligible to get into it.. We just have to take some actions to set up accounts or get some contacts with folks to buy directly.. sure there can sometimes be some elitism in terms of those with banks have more options, but we see systems developing in very poor locations (including El Salvador) that seem to be increasing the developments of options in which even the poorest of the poor can get into bitcoin without having very many fees and then they can take advantage of even smaller incremental investments if that might be all their budget (and situation) may be able to tolerate.

I am so blushening...




If you are referring to May 2021, then surely a rapid crash in a short period, such as a day (or less) would be important, yet even the dragging out of what amounted to about a 50% crash in a week seemed to have had even more profound significance in terms of traders not necessarily wanting to close their position at a loss or less of a profit because they continue to believe that the bottom has been reached and they may even double and triple down upon the belief that the correction could not go any further (at least it should not within the high probabilities assigned to the circumstances).. So leverage makes the matter worse, but the dynamics are similar in terms of both not wanting to give up on a position.



It tends to be a prudent position to hold onto your position, but surely bitcoin's outrageous runs, whether towards UPpity or DOWNity can really reck those folks who continue to hold onto their position.  Probably in bitcoin the glory is even so much greater, when it occurs, and the outrageousness goes towards UPpity.  There tend to be so many folks who try to categorize bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class and they either underappreciate (or don't recognize at all) the exponential s-curve adoption aspect of bitcoin's underlying fundamentals, and surely it becomes nice to see those periods play out, and sure it is not just the leveraged players who get fucked by their failure/refusal to appreciate/recognize BTC's exponential s-curve adoption component.

There are some of us who try to point out (until we are blue in the face) bitcoin's exponential s-curve adoption component to people/normies in order that they can appreciate that they do not need to invest a whole hell of a lot into bitcoin, relatively speaking, and just get the fuck off of zero and they will likely get a decent amount of value in that - and sure of course, there is even more value in putting a more meaningful stake into bitcoin, but still the "more meaningful " stake is not absolutely necessary in order to still get a decent amount of value in just being moderate and getting off of zero as a first step.

Another thing is that people (whether friends, relatives or just acquaintances) tend to look at you like you are some kind of wack job that is trying to evangelize some kind of cult ideas (or pump your bags), and frequently, I do try to clarify that I could give few fucks if they actually buy any bitcoin or get involved in bitcoin because it is likely going up no matter what I do or they do, and they can either be "in on it" or just sit on the sidelines like a bump on the ground while the greatest wealth transfer in their lifetime is taking place - and still the vast majority of the time the normie(s) in the audience does not do shit to even take the bare minimum steps of setting up some basic accounts in order to even come close to getting off of zero.

TLDR:
I am happy as long as things are going my way.

 


Next time, I am going to leave out the "no homo"

You don't deserve it.

 


Why would he?

We are the best of buds.

We go way back.

Hate to break the news to uie poo-ie, Hueristic, but I will.  

Someone's gots a do it.

Your English sucks about as badly as sirazimuth's singing.

No homo.


Are you lost?


What the fuck are we talking about some amorphous concept in this here bitcoin thread?

Do you mean bitcoin when you use the term "crypto?"

If so, then why not just use the word bitcoin, if that's what you mean?

If you are talking about something else then take that to some other thread.


Just keep saying it.

Sooner or later, you are going to be correct, even if it takes a few years.

Yes.. people can deny it.

The best strategy is DCA,  and buying the dip is a good supplement to DCA.. but it is not as good as DCA... So when in doubt and you are not sure about what strategy to follow, DCA is the best  Hands down.


If you are already in a mindset of trying to time the market, you are likely setting ur lil selfie for panic selling and emotion.


I think HODL means more than one you are describing it to be.


If your are thinking about short term baloney then sure.. maybe you will get a payoff and maybe you will sell too much too soon.

I f you are a long term investor, you don't need to place any kind of high priority on trying to figure out when you are going to sell, but you can still develop various strategies that may account for some selling. even while not getting too worked up about it.


Fair enough.. buy the dip and HODL have problematic aspects by themselves, but they are not bad if they supplement other strategies, including the best strategy, which is DCA.



There are many situations in which a HODL position may well come into play.  One of the scenarios is running out of money after buying the dip, and another is not selling too much too soon.

Sure there are other scenarios in which HODL is a good strategy, also... and you are correct, Wawa2013, there is a decent amount of individualized tailoring that might cause HODL to play out differently for different people and to be an acceptable strategy.. and sometimes there is no perfect strategy, just good strategies that attempt to be mostly individually tailored, if possible.


All or nothing thinking is dangerous too, and frequently some kind of incrementalism will be better because it is likely better to never sell all of your BTC and also it is likely better to never run out of fiat to buy, either.


This thread is about bitcoin, so whatever the fuck you are suggesting about "crypto" likely does not apply, so maybe you should revise your above sentence in terms of talking about bitcoin rather than muddying your point with likely nonsense and vague ideas that are likely lacking in a large number of assessments about fundamentals and also speaking vaguely would have a lot of variation in terms of assessing any of the bullshit out there that might fall into such a broad and nonspecific category, besides bitcoin in terms of potentially having any fundamental value that would cause some shitcoin or whatever you are referring to to be a long term rather than an in and out investment...

In this thread, we are already presuming bitcoin to have long-term fundamental values, and therefore that presumption of long-term fundamental value is built into the idea of HODL, also.  

It would stray this thread way into off-topicness if you are wanting to bring any other piece of shit coin (aka altcoin) (aka crypto that is not bitcoin) into consideration/discussion in this here thread.