Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

Any spare change?
Christie's auctioning artist NFT creations via online auctions:



Misha Kahn: Furniture Unhinged

Sale Overview
For this first-ever design NFT sale offered by a major auction house, Christie’s partnered with acclaimed nonconformist Misha Kahn (b. 1989), a material polymath whose irreverent approach encompasses a wide range of techniques and tools, from lo-fi collage and improvisational molds to virtual reality and robotics. Furniture Unhinged presents ten NFTs, each comprising a unique 3D model rendered as an FBX file together with a corresponding MP4 single-channel “trophy” video of the object spinning on a pedestal.

Each lot represents an individual frame captured from a thirteen-second source animation by Kahn, whose biomorphic protagonist morphs through various furniture types and functions within a virtual, off-world architectural space.

In a departure from previous NFT-based artworks, the owner of each of the present lots may 3D-print as many physical examples of their FBX as they would like, and/or they may commission one unique, authentic example which Kahn will render in PETG thermoplastic polyester, epoxy, and paint. The ninth lot, It Must Have Been The Clams, is accompanied in the current sale by a real-life example

Warning, the image I just copied in this post could be worth a few million bucks one day!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

...

A Dutch family traded ALL of their liquidity for Bitcoin (and some s**t) when BTC was at $900.  They have six hardware wallets stored in various places around the globe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/bitcoin-family-hides-bitcoin-ethereum-and-litecoin-in-secret-vaults.html


There is a remark by Chainalylsis in the article that they calculate an estimated 3.7 million BTC are lost.  It would useful for us to KNOW, but that figure sounds about right.

The 6 locations seems a bit much, but if say, a family back in 2017 sold everything, and maybe got $500k to $1m worth of everything, and bought BTC at $900 each, the could be looking at 555 BTC to 1000 BTC. They are looking at at least $27m USD worth, but if they never needed more than $1m before they will definitely keep all the rest in cold storage and just access them once a year or so for living expenses and potentially be able to live of that for the next several generations.

As for lost BTC, its a little bit difficult as some really old coins have been moving, but I would guess or estimate that you can just look at any coins or addresses that have not moved in maybe 10 years, and those could be considered lost. The longer coins do not move, the more likely they are lost.

[cAPSLOCK]

As for concrete and pylons depends on code.

I can do this with  a gravel pad and not be called permanent structure  so no tax on it and no permit.

If I do concrete I need a permit.

This is different from a concrete pad. It can be either a concrete block or you can cast concrete cylinders.

I have been lucky so far with poison ivy with no incidents though my wife has had it a few times. I almost wonder if there's such a thing as immunity.

Yes.  Some people do not have a reaction to it.

[El duderino_]

...

A Dutch family traded ALL of their liquidity for Bitcoin (and some s**t) when BTC was at $900.  They have six hardware wallets stored in various places around the globe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/bitcoin-family-hides-bitcoin-ethereum-and-litecoin-in-secret-vaults.html


There is a remark by Chainalylsis in the article that they calculate an estimated 3.7 million BTC are lost.  It would useful for us to KNOW, but that figure sounds about right.

The 6 locations seems a bit much, but if say, a family back in 2017 sold everything, and maybe got $500k to $1m worth of everything, and bought BTC at $900 each, the could be looking at 555 BTC to 1000 BTC. They are looking at at least $27m USD worth, but if they never needed more than $1m before they will definitely keep all the rest in cold storage and just access them once a year or so for living expenses and potentially be able to live of that for the next several generations.

As for lost BTC, its a little bit difficult as some really old coins have been moving, but I would guess or estimate that you can just look at any coins or addresses that have not moved in maybe 10 years, and those could be considered lost. The longer coins do not move, the more likely they are lost.

Imo a normal house not in a big city …. A village house = 300-500k on avg of course more expensive ones for sure …. But on AVG

Then maybe how much is been paid of 10-20-50-70 or more %…. So no one can guess it easily could be 50-200 btc as well…. Could be more too…. No one knows….

[Dabs]

Imo a normal house not in a big city …. A village house = 300-500k on avg of course more expensive ones for sure …. But on AVG

Then maybe how much is been paid of 10-20-50-70 or more %…. So no one can guess it easily could be 50-200 btc as well…. Could be more too…. No one knows….

50 BTC is a good number to have if the family needed perhaps $50k USD per year for annual expenses, then they would have 49 BTC left today. Maybe next year, they withdraw another 1 BTC so now they have 48 BTC left.

The year after that, they only need to withdraw 0.5 BTC, or the 1 BTC will now last 2 years. This goes on until they may have drawn down to 45 BTC, lived for 5 to 10 years, but BTC is now worth $300k to $500k. Withdraw another 1 more coin, and live on that for another 5 to 10 years.

By then, their BTC would be worth at that future value and can theoretically live on it for the next 40 to 400 years, 1 BTC will last 10 years, they have 40 BTC left.

Wait another 10 years, and the family will never have to worry about their future. Once BTC hits $1m in the next 20 years, the remaining 40 BTC would be worth $40m USD. And if they're smart, they still only need $50k to live on every year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Poker Player]

Any idea why the price is going down? I was thinking about normal short-term volatility but it's going down 5% already. Maybe some FUD or sth?

[philipma1957]

I was wondering if there's a category of people who support the vaccine, as naturally intrigued by research projects and public experiments, but chose to abstain as not getting paid to test new medical research?

I've otherwise stayed out of the debate for a while, just listening to friends who say they will never get it and we need to fight, as well as others who claim I am dumb for not having it already. Truth be told, my main argument for not getting the vaccine is my sock draw is always a complete mess. I have to keep rearranging it with thinner socks at the front for the warmer weather, but with access to thicker socks for work and gardening. It's a real nightmare to be honest and is a lot of maintenance for me, it's meant I simply haven't had the time to join this research project. That and the day I genuinely considered having the vaccine - "the day" as others put it - a beautiful butterfly landed on my knee (that was dirty from soil work) and with persistence decided to clean me while gaining sufficient nutrients, or so I assume. I tried to deter this creature but they were so persistent and determined so I gave up. It completely distracted me from thinking about taking the vaccine, and personally haven't thought about it since.

I otherwise support everyone who has become part of this experiment, I genuinely salute you all! Medical advancements are needed, and this is a very well controlled study with an amazing sample size. I look forward to the continued results of this experiment in the coming years. Naturally I'm skeptical with any untested medicines/vaccines that haven't gone through the test of time, at least 2-3 years but realistically 10 years for the full research to be discovered.

If you're part of the older generation then for sure you have nothing to lose, but personally, I feel I've still got a lot to live for. None the less, I appreciate all of you who are vaccinated for being part of this study so I don't have to  

I would like for you to answer me and say I am part of the study and I am one of the reasons MSM is running around saying since Jan 1 99.2% of covid dead are not vaccinated.

You are helping to create the study. The only way to opt out of the study it to kill yourself.

Everyone else is in the study.

The problem I have is your bolded statement as you actually think you are exempt from the study.

It you you want to opt out of the study suicide is the only way to not be included.

Unless you have your own rocket ship and leave the planet.

I do not have an issue with you opted to not take a shot.
I do have an issue thinking that means you are not in the study.

Fair point, you're completely right and hadn't considered this angle, can't argue against that logic to save my non-vaccinated life. You must be very logical individual given the number of other users that overlooked this factor, something I deeply admire to be honest.

I therefore take back the fact I'm not part of this study in a wider sense, even if not part of the isolated and well-controlled vaccination study directly. Potentially being part of the minority un-vaccinated will be as valuable (if not more valuable) medical research then being part of the vaccinated majority, only time will tell. I'm more than happy to be able to potentially contribute regarding this medical research in the future for sure, I do love new discoveries, experiments, innovations, etc.

For sure if I ever got tested positive for covid, I'd happily submit any relevant information required to assist in the necessary research. Ultimately though, as someone who was engaged in relief packages to many isolators and covid positive cases in the early days of lockdown for many months, the likelihood of me already coming into contact with it was extremely high. I additionally made the effort to intentionally expose myself as intensely as possible at that time in order to try and build immunity, while responsibly avoiding putting others at risk. This while also maintaining an incredibly healthy fitness routine and solid diet. Think consuming any physical contact before washing hands, wearing a mask but exposing myself to non-mask wearers etc.

When the initial lockdown occurred and the streets were deserted with the exception of the licensed workers such as myself risking our lives in order to assist (potentially even save) others, it's hard not to think I came in contact with at least one strain of the virus, repeatedly I imagine, despite no-one directly around me testing positive either. Hence I don't feel the need for a vaccine personally, I think I'm past that point in time now to due high exposure. If there was another lockdown I'd return to relief work I imagine (as adore the freedom of the apolocalyptic outdoors more than anything else), and hopefully I'd be able to do this un-vaccinated to avoid the potential of losing valuable research data.

It's nice to know that I am therefore playing my part in this public experiment so I appreciate your valuable insight. I felt a bit selfish not participating directly to be honest, even if seems unncessary due to the large sample size already, but ultimately it does make me feel a lot better now

But I sure this post will simply anger you and you will not be able to see a very simple truth.

You don't know me very well it seems, it's best to avoid making assumptions without solid facts to backup such a statement

Nice reply.

[JayJuanGee]

TBH The amount of BTC accumulated by big institutions is the biggest sign of bullishness ever.
People say the demand is now less? Bro they already bought fuck ton of BTC to start with.
Come back to this post in years, we will be almost x5 from here. BTC

Which big institutions bought bitcoin? how much did they buy? how do you know that they bought?  some countries are contemplating coming in too.. no?  early stages of that?

By the way, the hoarding of bitcoin is likely going to cause the average normie to be quite well off with his/her 0.21BTC or whatever level of BTC s/he is able to accomplish - presuming that some normies are going to have some real difficulties getting up to owning a whole BTC, especially if some of them are ONLY able to invest around $100 per month or some other modest amount...

Just imagine if some somewhat financially struggling normie starts to take steps of setting up an account and then just dedicatedly pooling his/her $100 per month to buy bitcoin, and maybe in a few years can increase to $200 or even $500 a month, and maybe after 10 years of ongoingly buying bitcoin, s/he might get up to 0.5 BTC or maybe even have some abilities to lump sum some extra cashflow from time to time, and then get up to a whole BTC after 10 years.  My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status, and by 2041, it could take 2 BTC to reach such fuck you status.. of course, my formula is pretty conservative and based on the 208-week moving average.  I could provide an update if anyone is interested in seeing my latest projections.. but of course, you can make your own projections too (it seems that I am changing mine on a fairly regular basis.. and not even sure if they are getting better, rather than just different from previous projections).

[El duderino_]

50k again will taste sweet 

[Dabs]

Please post your projections. Is it like a chart or yearly thing or looks like a spreadsheet? Maybe it's broken down month to month?

2031 = 13.5 BTC = $2 million USD? = $148k USD per BTC? Something like that?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Any idea why the price is going down? I was thinking about normal short-term volatility but it's going down 5% already. Maybe some FUD or sth?

It's never a straight line.

[vapourminer]

My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status

10 years to 148K/btc??? since when did you become so bearish?

10 months now.. i can see that as a fairly reasonable guess (SOMA analysis mode of course)

[LoyceV]

My current fuck you status projection (presuming $2million as entry level fuck you status) does show that in 10 years (august 2031), it may well take 13.5 BTC to reach fuck you status

10 years to 148K/btc??? since when did you become so bearish?

If I'm not mistaken, JayJuanGee uses something like the 200 week moving average for his estimate. So by the time Bitcoin reaches that, peaks could be much higher.

[ImThour]

If you trade:

LONG BTC; Current Price: $44208

Thank me later.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Any idea why the price is going down? I was thinking about normal short-term volatility but it's going down 5% already. Maybe some FUD or sth?

I answered you directly regarding the lack of resistance maybe not being so clear-cut as you might have thought  

In theory there is no resistance anymore until $50K or so, but it seems to be struggling although it is still gradually moving upwards.

End of Day analysis as a quick answer to the golden question: "what's holding the bulls back, there is no resistance". I'd argue it's currently the 0.5 fib retracement level (also previous breakdown level) from the ATH to the swing low @ $46,747.

Hope that answers your curiosity. Price is otherwise beginning to test my local pocket of "triple support confluence" on the 4hr, so nothing to panic about...

Nice reply.

Respect

[JayJuanGee]

Please post your projections. Is it like a chart or yearly thing or looks like a spreadsheet? Maybe it's broken down month to month?

2031 = 13.5 BTC = $2 million USD? = $148k USD per BTC? Something like that?

Ok....  Here it is. By popular demand:

First of all some underlying presumptions that can be individually tweaked is that $2 million is entry level fuck you status, and that in order to prepare for inevitable ongoing BTC volatility, we try to consider the value of our wealth (that is kept in bitcoin) based on reasonable (but still potentially extreme) BTC bottom prices.

Since I am presuming that currently we are in a bull market and BTC price are actually nearly 3x above the 208-week moving average (208-week moving average is about $14,500 as I type - and current price is $44k-ish), I am using the 104-week moving average as our BTC price starting point, and then projecting a 20% per year price increase in the 208-week moving average (and sure 20% per year is conceded to be fairly aggressive in terms of the increase per year and may need to be accounted for in the event that the 208-week moving average ends up underperforming those kinds of tentative BTC price bottom appreciation expectations)..  

Based on our current 3x price above the 208-week moving average..including that we are likely currently in a bull market for anywhere between 5 months to 16 months longer, I am also presuming that at some point (perhaps within 6 to 12 months) the 208-week moving average will catch up to the current projection in the chart, even though I had started the projection from a wee bit above the 104-week moving average (starting at $22k and the 108-week moving average is about $21,300... as I type this post)

Even though I like to use the 208-week moving average as the anticipated overall low BTC price points in all markets, I am currently considering the 104-week moving average to be a decent tentative accurate guide to the BTC bottom price when we are in bull markets (if it is possible to reasonably assess when we might be in bull markets - including the tentative conclusion that now we are within such a bull market).

Note.. I removed some of the dates/prices in the middle of the below chart for ease of management/formatting (and then dates that remained in the chart were including 4-year and 10-year increments).

Start $                               StartDate                        % gain /time                   Time (every 6 months)                    Goal
$22,000.00                          8/12/21                         10.00%                            182.6 (days)                                       $2,000,000
            
   Date                                    BTC bottom Price               gain/time                               BTC#/Goal
                                             (Extreme=not likely)
   8/12/21                               $22,000.00                        $2,200.00                              90.90909091
   2/10/22                               $24,200.00                        $2,420.00                             82.64462810
   8/12/22                               $26,620.00                        $2,662.00                             75.13148009
   2/10/23                               $29,282.00                        $2,928.20                             68.30134554
   8/12/23                               $32,210.20                        $3,221.02                             62.09213231
   2/11/24                               $35,431.22                        $3,543.12                             56.44739301
   8/11/24                               $38,974.34                        $3,897.43                             51.31581182
   2/10/25                               $42,871.78                        $4,287.18                             46.65073802
   8/11/25                               $47,158.95                        $4,715.90                             42.40976184
   [edited out 2026-2028]
   2/10/29                               $91,899.46                        $9,189.95                             21.76291358
   8/11/29                               $101,089.41                        $10,108.94                             19.78446689
   2/10/30                               $111,198.35                        $11,119.83                             17.98587899
   8/11/30                               $122,318.18                        $12,231.82                             16.35079908
   2/10/31                               $134,550.00                        $13,455.00                             14.86436280
   8/12/31                               $148,005.00                        $14,800.50                             13.51305709
   2/10/32                               $162,805.50                        $16,280.55                             12.28459736
   8/11/32                               $179,086.05                        $17,908.60                             11.16781578
   2/9/33                               $196,994.65                        $19,699.47                             10.15255980
   8/11/33                               $216,694.12                        $21,669.41                             9.22959982
       [edited out 2034-2036]
   2/9/37                               $422,275.53                        $42,227.55                             4.73624407
   8/11/37                               $464,503.09                        $46,450.31                             4.30567643
      [edited out 2038-2040]
   2/9/41                               $905,185.11                        $90,518.51                             2.20949282
   8/11/41                               $995,703.62                        $99,570.36                             2.00862983
    [edited out 2042-2044]
   2/9/45                               $1,940,344.68                        $194,034.47                             1.03074470
   8/10/45                               $2,134,379.14                        $213,437.91                             0.93704064

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?