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7261  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2021, 05:11:14 PM
The future we are anticipating some years ahead from now like bitcoin would be mainstream and used by all like mode of payment maybe coming soon than we expect it to be.


When local residents will be willing to take Bitcoin payments then nobody can stop it to further rise and intially this was main aim that it could be used as alternate to fiat.I see this coming true soon and hope to see some more posters on the wall in my area also.

Lol not too long ago, EVERYONE here was saying. We do not need the Small People in here(BTC)... We only need the Rich Folks  Grin oh how i love to see JayJuanGee merit it since he was the biggest advocate for it Cheesy

Time has proven me Wise, Again and again.

Huh?  What has a no coiner like you said that was correct, exactly?

Have you coordinated your actions with your supposed words?

Have you bought any BTC since your supposedly losing BTC in GOX in early 2014?  or you just ongoingly begging and failing to actually act to actually buy some BTC, even if you might ONLY be able to afford $10 per week?

Even ONLY a year of buying BTC at $10 per week would have put you in a better place than merely ongoingly whining as a no coiner... You would have had $530 invested which would be 0.02364BTC - current $945 value.. - about a 79% return in one year. it's a start, and better than nothing... You gotta do what you gotta do, and in bitcoin it seems that it is better to do something beyond just whine.

Of course, 7 years of $10 per week would have put you in even a better position of having had invested $3,660, but having nearly 4 BTC and $166,451 of value - about a 44.5x return over 7 years...

So for sure the earlier you get started the better, and just stick with some kind of plan, even if a modest one and down the road you have decent chances being in a better place, even if positive returns are not guaranteed, bitcoin still does seem to be amongst the best (if not the best) of investments to make, even currently and even considering upside potential versus downside risk.
7262  Other / Meta / Re: Report plagiarism (copy/paste) here. Mods: please give temp or permban as needed on: August 02, 2021, 04:52:52 PM

  thank you for the good offer from now on I'll call you friend. If  the admins give me a second chance then I will not waste their trust.  I will do my best to prove them that I deserve a second chance to those who have give me lesson just nuthilda's did I am very thankful to all of you. This day many lesson came to me and I will put it in my mind.
No worries. You can call me friend but the only person you have to trust is yourself, not that I can't be trusted but I won't claim myself as trusted since I haven't done many services which can prove that I am trusted like those forum users who run an escrow service. It is better to be safe than sorry. Improve your ability to quote.

It's all fine and dandy to attempt to help members who might be actually genuine in their various aspirations and not trying to scam (or mislead) anyone... .. Some members are more genuine than others, and I am not sure whether taking too many aspects to DM is actually helpful.. but sure, sometimes, there might just need to be some frank talk to help to clear up some mistakes that some newer members might be making along the way (and that might be more achievable in a DM format)...

It seems that over the years, I have helped some members, and some of that has been through public threads, and sometimes we do end up taking some of the matters to private messages... and in the end, even though I have some ideas of members that I have helped, I would not really say anything because like you said nakamura, the member has to have some readiness, willingness and ability to help himself/herself..... but sure, sometimes red flags will be raised along the way too..... and not always easy to spot.. and sometimes we just might not know..

Sometimes I will very much limit how much that I am willing to go over in private when some of the matters can just be covered publicly because there are interests that are of general applicability being discussed, whether we are talking about views about bitcoin versus various altcoin or we are talking about forum rules or even expectations (and norms) of forum member behaviors.  Through the years, there are some members who actually cause some concern for me, but frequently, I will just leave some matters be and choose not to get involved (of course, these are discretionary matters in terms of how much time any of us might feel that we have to interact with any member or group of members).  

Also, sometimes there are just differing ways that members have of communicating that just are within a realm that does not really violate forum rules or norms (even if they might be going in a kind of questionable judgement direction).. so in the end, it may well be the case that no one is really being hurt along the way (until they are..).. and for sure, the forum can sometimes be quite strict on certain seemingly low levels of plagiarism, too...
7263  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 02, 2021, 04:13:29 PM
I am not sure if you really believe this self-fulfilling prophecy concept.

Lol. I said I've been thinking about it lately. I don't believe it like some people believe in God if that's what you mean.

That's good.

 Wink

I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about whether Saylor likes it or not or whether Saylor promotes it or not...

If we are talking about the very long term, of course not. Bitcoin if I remember correctly started being traded for price below $0.01 (correct me if I'm wrong). If we agree that in the future it will be worth $1M or more, Saylor has little influence on that long process.

If we talk about the last year and the near future, I think it has played an important role, especially in the popularization to companies and to a lesser extent to retail investors. Nowadays you search for "Bitcoin" on Youtube and you immediately get Saylor's videos.

In terms of companies, in February they held their annual user conference which included the Bitcoin for Corporations. According to Mr. Saylor, the Bitcoin program attracted 8,197 attendees from 6,917 different enterprises. He has the videos posted on the website for anyone who wants to see them.

For sure you are not going to find me arguing with facts about Saylor(MSTR) coming to fame, a lot of public attention, and even a lot of personal work in bitcoin to really garner and gain attention (and the ears) of a lot of institutional thinkers, rich peeps and even normies who had previously NOT been paying attention to bitcoin.  Sure, I can concede all of these factual happenings and still stand by all of the points that I have already made.. I am not really in conflict with you except for how I mentioned the "self-fulfilling prophecy" talkenings and any worshiping (or narrowing of causation) implications that might inspire you and/or others to go down such a framing of what's happening in bitcoinlandia path.

I don't disagree with other ideas in your post, except the implication that you are trying to make that Saylor has any actual material or meaningful role in bitcoin's success....

Again, if we consider the long term in Bitcoin, I think he has little influence. And that Bitcoin is going to succeed more because of its intrinsic properties than anything else.

For sure, it is like getting in front of a mass of moving people and saying look at me, look at me, I am the leader, and so then the mass of moving people triples in size in a matter of 6 months.. o.k... sure there was a contribution because more people came into the mass.. but we cannot really measure exactly what would have happened if saylor had not jumped into the limelight (don't get me wrong.. I am surely not ungrateful and I agree with a lot of what he does, except maybe some of his ESG nonsense in recent times.. but whatever.. peeps gonna do whatever they are going to do).

But I didn't want to focus on him so much as on to what would happen if big businessmen happen to have the same conception of Bitcoin as Saylor and act like him, buying a lot of Bitcoin to never sell it, which means a reduction in offer in large quantities. MSTR has approximately 100K Bitcoin. You could get to the point where 1M BTC or more are never offered to be bought.

Of course, those kinds of things are already happening, and sure sometimes the sourcing of coins might have to come from numerous entities/persons... and of course, we know what happens with the more of those kinds of things going on, that kind of dynamic puts upwards pressures on the BTC price.

If someone wants 1 million coins, s/he could get those million coins, but it might cause the BTC price to go to $1million as well (and maybe it takes them several months - or maybe even a year to get the coins).. but whatever.. we already should appreciate that these kinds of dynamics are quite likely to happen.. and they are already happening to some degree.. but no one of such size has been as public as Saylor..... even though there are a hell of a lot of companies BIGGER than Saylor and able to buy more coins than Saylor (but they might not be ready and willing which is part of the gamble that Saylor is playing and likely somewhat correct about in terms of the nimbleness of his own company and the way that it is structured with him controlling the whole damned thing) and many of us already have appreciated that his public company position causes him to have to disclose and perhaps even overdisclose...

By the way, this is the first time I've replied to you at length in a post, and I enjoyed it.

I can come off as a meanie sometimes in terms of sometimes calling someone a dummy (when I really believe that the ideas are dumb), but hardly ever do I mean anything personal.  I am not even saying anything about your level of intelligence ONLY because I still remain concerned about the self-fulfilling prophecy idea... and sure I might change my mind, but so far not.... I prefer to stick to my guns on this one...  even if some of the devil is in the details...


Today marks one year since I registered on Bitcointalk and I feel old enough Smiley

You old foggie.   Tongue

Oh maybe I cannot recall your backstory... have you been investing in bitcoin before you came to the forum, or did you just start to get involved in bitcoin in 2020?  Maybe you are Michael Saylor.. ?  Oh shit... Hi Michael.. did not mean to say mean things about you...
7264  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will not be able to stay above $40K for 10 consecutive days ever again! on: August 02, 2021, 03:31:55 PM
That moment when btc wil be the first 10 constructive days above 100K

Man I can’t wait for this to happen

 Cool

Nice thing is, I know it’s gonna happen  Cool Grin

I hear what you are saying.. but at the same time I am thinking, ONLY 10 days above $100k?

But, I suppose we have to start somewhere, and there is a kind of Lindy effect that people likely realize when the BTC price stays up in certain areas for certain periods of time, then there develops some kinds of norm creation for the price to return and exceed the previously established levels, even if sometimes it might take more than 3 years to get to that previous point and to sustain new prices above the previous point....

We've seen it again and again.... so get past $64,895 first, and then get to $100k.. perhaps above that price (is such $100k price sustainable or not, or might we have some resistance there?).. then above and beyond at some point... this cycle or in the next one?

Anyhow, back to the thread, we know that these various prices of $30k, $40k and $50k or price goals for ants, so they are likely to be in the rear view mirror soon enough...

I hate to proclaim too much, but still thinking that any of these price might have decent chances of NOT being visited again.. let's say a few years down the road when we get to the bottom of the next cycle.. but for now they are still areas to get over.. and maybe accumulate more if you have cash coming in  or accumulate more if you just feel comfortable getting a bit extra BTC... of course, accumulating more if you have no BTC, but should be a given for any peeps following these threads, that getting off zero is a kind of baseline that everyone should have already met that part.. so then once getting off of zero and once getting some BTC, such as 1% to 10% of your portfolio or more, then the next question would just be to figure out in terms if you want to continue to be fairly aggressive or not.. which gets us back to the question of possibly overly accumulating a wee bit... just for funzies....

very individualizable questions regarding what you should do?  what you should do?  How much is enough for your particular situation?... and yes, sometimes just getting stuck in the $40k area for a while could help for some guys just to accumulate some more BTC with some of the cashflow coming in, while it last.. 10 more days or whatever.
7265  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 02, 2021, 03:13:43 PM

It might be because they didn’t want to look stupid. It doesn’t matter who said it first, or who last said it, the Honey Badger don’t care. Cool

You probably need to research more.. but still like you said, it does not matter very much, unless some peeps are trying to act like they first came up with some idea or frameworks.. but hey whatever, do what you like..

I admit I do. I have so much to learn. Which brings me to a question, just out of curiousity of knowing the thoughts of Bitcoin OGs like you. When, do you believe, will Bitcoin be a World Reserve Currency? Within 20 years?

Value is going to continue to gravitate into bitcoin, yet 20 years seems too soon....

Bitcoin is successful whether or not it ever becomes a world reserve currency.. and the personal investment thesis into bitcoin remains strong.. so sure, you can contemplate more macro ideas, that's fine, but this thread is about personal investment strategies,

That’s true, but it can also be helpful to research about Bitcoin and it’s effect on Macroeconomics, and know the theories why it might have a great impact on the behavior, and the current structure of the world’s economy as whole.

Nothing wrong with studying, but if this thread happens to be about buying the dip and HODLing, do you believe that bitcoin becoming the world reserve currency (if and when it does) has very much to do with the subject area of the thread which seems to me would be that anyone who is investing into bitcoin within the premise and guidelines of this thread would be considering that bitcoin's fundamentals are strong, to justify investing into it.. sure bitcoin becoming a world reserve currency can be part of that thesis to motivate investing, but I doubt that anyone should have to have bitcoin come even close to world reserve status in order to profit stupendously beyond a lot of other options currently available.

In other words, seems to NOT be any kind of necessary or immediate condition and seems to be beyond the original topic and not even that necessary to fold into the topic in order to discuss reasons for buying on dip and HODLing.. and I believe that lump sum investing and DCAing are a lot closer and better topics... because seems to me that there is already a kind of assumption in this thread regarding long term prospects of bitcoin and so getting to world reserve status is a kind of a matter of degree rather than a matter of already assumed BTC price direction....

and some of us invest into bitcoin because we believe that its sound money aspects are going to continue to cause value to gravitate into it and for bitcoin to increase in value greater than other assets, relatively speaking...and sure at some point, governments around the world might start to recognize bitcoin as their unit of account or their transactional currency.

Any country might, like El Salvador, or can, but I believe Bitcoin has not reached a level of liquidity to maintain stability to be an accepted unit of account, or transactional currency. But as a Reserve Currency for governments to hold in significant quantities? More possible.

Yes.. seems inevitable that a variety of these kinds of things are going to happen with BIGGER and BIGGER players getting more involved in bitcoin in various ways.

So, sure it does seem inevitable that value will continue to gravitate into bitcoin in such a way that it becomes more and more the base for everything else.. and whether there is a gradual then suddenly timeline that can be placed upon it, is not something that I give many shits in exploring.. bitcoin has already provided me a lot of value.. and it has performed quite a bit beyond the more bullish of expectations.. but it is still on a trajectory that takes time.. even though it is progressing quite well with the passage of time.

By the way, let's see how El Salvador works out, and if there are other countries wanting to imitate it, so there is the legal tender matter, but there is also the matter of governments holding Bitcoin in their reserves.. so El Salvador is a kind of beginning, but I still doubt that 20 years would be a sufficient time for the contagion of bitcoin to spread to be classified as a world reserve currency.  We will see.. we will see.

Front run the government, buy the dip and HODL. Cool

And lump sum invest and DCA as well... jajajajajaja

 Tongue Tongue Tongue
7266  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 02, 2021, 05:39:35 AM
I am glad I was wrong,
but does this go on?

There are quite a few peeps who were also wrong, and one thing is being wrong, and another thing is to have had acted on such wrongness.

Some peeps are still waiting for BTC to correct when they sold in the lower $30ks or failed/refused to sufficiently buy in the lower $30ks....

What we gonna do beyond leading the horses/donkeys to the water.. we cannot force anything can we? (royal, in part..)

In any event, I believe that there are sufficient number of regulars in this thread on a similar page as yours truly on this topic of making sure that we are always sufficiently and adequately (and maybe even too muchie) prepared for UPpity.  No problem with being prepared for down too, but the error that most people make is regarding NOT being sufficiently and adequately prepared for UPpity.. and can surely take some time to get that base established.. DCA etc... for a decent amount of time is surely helpful... plus some other BTC accumulation tactics (do I need to to repeat them?)...

Are we in the clear now or will there be a (proudhon) surprise?

No we are not in the clear, but fuck proudhon, he has nothing to do with this matter except for continuously proclaiming the same thing and trying to get credit for having any kind of knowledge beyond wit.

Most likely we need to get above $46k or something in that neighborhood before we can start to really feel comfortable that the bottom of $28,600 is the actual bottom for this correction.... sure the threshold might be lower than $46k, and sure, there is no guarantee that even $46k will be enough to inspire confidence about the bottom being in.. but it seems an ongoing decent ballpark parameter that is sufficiently cushioned above $28,600 to have some idea that the correction is quite likely to be over...


gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?

Rather than being either good or bad, it's probably a wee sign.

So many questions.

Nothing wrong with having questions.. gotta expect that not everyone has time or abilities to study BTC 24/7, so this remains a place for brainstormening.. .. but sure in the end, you are responsible to formulate your own opinions and strategies in response to the information that you have or believe that you have.

Good luck... hopefully you have been buying BTC all along (probably DCAing is designed for guys like you), which would likely mean that you picked up some coins in the lower $30ks.. right?  We were there for a decent amount of time over the past nearly 2.5 months, so far (again, not sure if we might be returning to potentially pick up some more if you have not already done so..).


 Kiss Kiss Kiss Kiss
TETHER RRWEEEEEEEEEEEE

Been there done that dorothy.

We are no longer in 2016/2017.

Snap your ruby red slippers together three times and say after me: "there's no place like 2021.  there's no place like 2021. there's no place like 2021."
7267  Economy / Reputation / Re: [self-moderated] Report unmerited good posts to Merit Source on: August 02, 2021, 04:50:36 AM
25 merits away from my next rank. Someone may have a look at my posts and rain some merits to make the journey faster  Cheesy
That's not how this topic works. You should do the work, and I should only have to click on the 6 links to your best posts. Even better if I can actually read them Smiley

How cute.

Little beggar mouse would be a much better user name.

7268  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 02, 2021, 04:47:22 AM
Lately I've been thinking how much of a self-fulfilling prophecy Saylor's conception of Bitcoin may be.

I am not sure if you really believe this self-fulfilling prophecy concept.

I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about whether Saylor likes it or not or whether Saylor promotes it or not...

Sure, on the margins, it might make a difference that Saylor is buying into bitcoin and pumping bitcoin like a wildman, but in the end, bitcoin is going up whether Saylor gets onboard or not....

For him it's basically the best financial asset in the world, and that's why he's not going to sell it. Never. He's going to keep buying as much as he can. I think the pic that Fillippone posted in the WO thread characterizes it perfectly.


LOL

As of June 21, 2021, MicroStrategy holds an aggregate of approximately 105,085 bitcoins,

He plans to keep buying. Non-stop

What happens to those Bitcoin he buys? They reduce the offer. It's as if they are lost. They don't flow. The more Bitcoin he buys, the more he reduces the offer and the more pressure he puts on the price to go up.

If big businessmen start sharing their vision, the predictions of several million per Bitcoin in the future are going to be easy fulfilled but largely due to this self-fulfilling prophecy. The whales believe Bitcoin is too valuable, buy it and never sell it, and create even more scarcity than Bitcoin already has because of its limited (deflationary) nature and the reduction of supply with halvings. Aside from the Bitcoins lost already and those that may get lost in the future.

I don't disagree with other ideas in your post, except the implication that you are trying to make that Saylor has any actual material or meaningful role in bitcoin's success.... sure maybe his actions cause the dips to be less severe and the pumps to be greater, but in the end, there are all kinds of factors to take into account, so it seems a bit too much to be suggesting that bitcoin becomes successful by Saylor, Microstrategies or any other bullish player.. and sure, he wants to be the bullish of the bulls, but so what?  There are a lot of factors that come into play, and Saylor identified them and also identified that we are still in early days and he became willing to bet, leverage and overleverage, and likely it will pay off well for him on a personal level.. no guarantees, but surely seems to be a good bet for someone in his position to have taken and way the hell more aggressive than a lot of others would have done (and probably way more aggressive than necessary, but still sends various interesting bullish bitcoin messages, so I am not going to wrestle with his ready, willingness, ableness, and actual action in the various over the top seeming strategies that he has chosen to take for himself and his company.
7269  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2021, 03:29:02 PM
Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

Plan B is criticized for having a model that fails to account for adoption levels, and only accounts for supply levels.

So in the basic supply and demand formula, Plan B is presumed to ONLY account for one side of the dynamic, yet in some sense, there could be some redemption to suggest that PlanB's model assumes demand as a constant and that it will always exist... so sure his model might fail if demand goes way up or way down and demand ends up NOT being the constant that seems to be implied in his model(s).

Hopefully, I am not misstating one of the commonly repeated presumption of ongoing demand criticisms of PlanB's model.

Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week.

gotta laugh at this one, for sure...


Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.

Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

It's the opposite of a death cross, i.e. shorter MA crossing longer MA upwards. It's a bit of a stretch to use it with a 4h chart but this is Bitcoin, we can do whatever we want, as long as we can say that the number will go up.

That's exactly correct suchmoon.. even though you were coming off as a bit of a smartass.... but in any event, one of the three BTC price prediction models has exponential s-curve adoption built into it, so if any of us appreciates that exponential s-curve adoption actually applies to bitcoin, then we also will realize that all roads lead to UPpity... that is not a bug.. it's a feature... so you can push bad boy down and down and down and even get away with pushing it down for a considerable amount of time (beyond expectations).. but sooner or later (sometimes scaring out a lot of the wanna get-rich-quick and emotional types) bad boy is going to spring back up.. it's in the underlying design...
7270  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 01, 2021, 02:55:46 PM
I don't think that cryptocurrencies are fully superior to cash for now. They have not only advantages against it but also disadvantages. Cryptocurrencies still have a long way to go to make it. But one thing is certain that they are absolutely a great alternative to fiat.

Thank you for your opinions, but bear in mind that while FIAT currencies are structurally engineered to lose value over time (trough the regressive hidden tax called inflation), BTC (let’s talk about the only one cryptocurrency having a value) is structurally engineered to be deflationary, or to increase his value over time.
While you can deal with a depreciating currency trough investments, of course this is an inferior choice.

We know already that Microstrategy (and Saylor) is only focusing on Bitcoin, so the title of the thread is likely a bit deceptive in terms of the topic (even if Saylor) might have said those exact words.

As far as I know, Saylor has not deviated from focusing only on Bitcoin, even though once in a while he will mention or acknowledge other cryptos (aka shitcoins).

Another matter is to focus on long term versus short term, even if we might get back to the 4 year bitcoin cycle and consider 4 years as a kind of minimum consideration in terms of entry point for the long term, performance of bitcoin or even the various shitcoins can be all over the place in the short term, so sure there could be better performance of shitcoins on the short term, and even shitcoins seem to fairly consistency out perform the dollar (and likely other fiats too).

I don't want to devolve too much into shitcoin talk either, because it is difficult to give too many shits about them.. unless just making short term bets, and really since this thread is meant to focus in upon Microstrategy/Saylor's strategies and involvement, the punchline does seem to be that he is still not distracted into such shitcoin topics - even if sometimes he may discuss the topic based on the frequent discussions of others - people are still very easily distracted in being able to focus on bitcoin.
7271  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2021, 05:35:37 AM


Is this ONLY pertaining to allowing bitcoin or is it a broader policy allowing shitcoins, too?

Maybe a link would be helpful to attempt to suss out some details, if there are some details available.

Are there even any pure Bitcoin exchanges? It would seem that this would include other coins by default.

I am thinking similarly.. sure there are some exchanges, services, podcasts, threads on the web that try to stay almost completely bitcoin, yet I still would not have minded to see a link about that particular topic to see how the matter is phrased... I suppose that I could google search the google story and I might be able to find the reference, perhaps?  perhaps?



Soon ya will witness the Picture. And the loss will be in Trillions Smiley

Edit:

Sorry Arrie, i broke the Order of being Quiet  Grin

Another Edit...

Arrie is the type of a Guy id take orders from so respect the lad  Grin

Last I looked BTC is not worth trillions.

In fact the entire crypto market is worth :

"The global crypto market cap is $1.64T, a 1.87% increase over the last day.Read more"  a quote from coinmarket cap. ( I apoligize JJG but need to use all coins to make this point)

So I guess  Stocks ,precious metals,  real estate and or cash are getting crushed soon. All losing trillions against BTC value.

I agree with your overall point philip, and really eXPHorizon is being ambiguous as fuck regarding what s/he/it means exactly. 

The evidence is quite strong that we are likely in the midst of the largest transfer of wealth in mankind, and there are going to be losses and gains, while at that same time the framework need not be considered as a zero sum game - but many of us can appreciate that value is flowing into bitcoin and going to continue to flow into bitcoin, even it if takes a decently long time to play out... so some industries are going to lose trillions if they do not figure out ways to either preserve some of their value or likely a decent remedy will be getting a decent stake into bitcoin.

Part of the value of so many of us being so damned early to bitcoin is that we can recognize and appreciate the transfer of wealth dynamics and to figure out that some if not a decently large amount of our wealth should prudently be in bitcoin.  Sure, I don't mean to be a bitcoin snob or anything like that because just getting off of zero and then getting a fairly assertive stake in bitcoin should be helpful, even if some people are likely still a bit gun shy about the whole matter.

Furthermore, we cannot really put a lot of trust in whatever the fuck eXPHorizon might be saying because he is a no coiner who is begging for BTC, but still fails/refuses to take some meaningful investing into bitcoin measures, even if he might ONLY be able to afford $10 per week or less.  He's not doing it, but he is continuing to be involved in threads like this and probably really does not have any good intentions, even if begging could be categorized as a potentially possible good intention?

$160k+ by December 31st, 2024?
possible
 

Seems a wee bit bearish and conservative, but whatevers... still in the positive direction.. to get another 4x+-ish in 3.5 years...

Way better than 6% price appreciation per year.. for example.



42 again, well done buddy (some positive reinforcement to balance out everyone blaming and yelling at you).

Sucking up to buddy, is unbecoming..

#justsaying
7272  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2021, 07:17:28 PM


Is this ONLY pertaining to allowing bitcoin or is it a broader policy allowing shitcoins, too?

Maybe a link would be helpful to attempt to suss out some details, if there are some details available.
7273  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: July 31, 2021, 07:01:30 PM

[edited out]

It’s OK JuanJayGee, I know who I am. I’m only human, making many mistakes, and who gets very excited easily on Bitcoin’s every surge.

hahahaha

Don't worry.  I am not trying to fix you.. that might be a lost cause.. hahahahaha

Cool

But am I truly wrong in believing that the Bitcoin market’s current actions want it to go back, and be like it was the final week January again? Another surge, and Bitcoin would back to the path of reaching a price with 6 digits. Plus when I started the topic only few believed me, when I said that Bitcoin would be a World Reserve Currency, few also believed, but we currently see the actions of some countries’ politicians point to it becoming real.

Nothing wrong with having bullish ideas, so long as you do not get too worked up in believing that you have high levels of certainty of short-term BTC price movements,

I’m the stupid one, and repeatedly say it in the forum, nor have I believed that I have high levels of accuracy, BUT I might currently be right. The stupid one can be right too. Hahaha.


Is there some reason that you want to be right?

I am just thinking that it does not matter very much.... and maybe that is some of the battle that I have with the underlying premise of this thread.... because from my perspective the main ideas in investing in something (such as bitcoin) that is really highly volatile is to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including extreme scenarios, and there is almost no way to be right, so if you do happen to be right, it is likely a kind of luck and therefore a so fucking what... so I am having some troubles in regards to either being right or wanting to be right about something that is dependent upon a whole hell of a lot of variables.. .

Sure, of course, many of us are investing into bitcoin because we recognize and appreciate the fundamental values and/or upside scenarios in regards to where bitcoin is going or might go, but even if there is a strong thesis for bitcoin's long term investment thesis, we can also appreciate that in the short term, the asset can be manipulated all over the place, so it becomes very difficult to really know the short term with any level of certainty.. so if you happen to get some kind of short term prediction right... so what?

Are you short term trading?  or just buying on dips so asserting that the dip is in and anyone who has not already bought the dip, better buy.. so sure, there might be some value in that.. I suppose.

No, it doesn’t matter to me, but it does make me feel happy if I’m right. Anyone would. Are you annoyed? You sound annoyed. Does it matter to you? Roll Eyes

I doubt that I am annoyed as much as you are considering my annoyance to be important.

I already made my point, so I am not sure what my annoyance, if any, has to do with the matter.


and for sure the world reserve currency question has been contemplated since the beginning of bitcoin, so you are hardly saying anything new if you are wanting to proclaim that you made various strong assertions about bitcoin in April 2019, when you created this thread.

I have never heard anyone say it with strong convictions among the infuencial members of Bitcointalk.

Oh gawd.  What about Hal Finney in 209.?   there are all kinds of examples if you are not just selectively making your claims that you are the first person to figure it out in 2019.. I am not going to waste my time to research the fucking 1,000s of peeps in bitcoin who said the same thing way before you... get a grip  Wind_FURY

Did I claim to be the first? I always claim to be the stupid one, remember? But I can claim that I am one of the people who truly believed it enough with conviction, looking stupid or not.

Just might be a different way of thinking about matters and if there is some need for recognition or credit...


It might be because they didn’t want to look stupid. It doesn’t matter who said it first, or who last said it, the Honey Badger don’t care. Cool

You probably need to research more.. but still like you said, it does not matter very much, unless some peeps are trying to act like they first came up with some idea or frameworks.. but hey whatever, do what you like..

I admit I do. I have so much to learn. Which brings me to a question, just out of curiousity of knowing the thoughts of Bitcoin OGs like you. When, do you believe, will Bitcoin be a World Reserve Currency? Within 20 years?

Value is going to continue to gravitate into bitcoin, yet 20 years seems too soon....

Bitcoin is successful whether or not it ever becomes a world reserve currency.. and the personal investment thesis into bitcoin remains strong.. so sure, you can contemplate more macro ideas, that's fine, but this thread is about personal investment strategies, and some of us invest into bitcoin because we believe that its sound money aspects are going to continue to cause value to gravitate into it and for bitcoin to increase in value greater than other assets, relatively speaking...and sure at some point, governments around the world might start to recognize bitcoin as their unit of account or their transactional currency.

So, sure it does seem inevitable that value will continue to gravitate into bitcoin in such a way that it becomes more and more the base for everything else.. and whether there is a gradual then suddenly timeline that can be placed upon it, is not something that I give many shits in exploring.. bitcoin has already provided me a lot of value.. and it has performed quite a bit beyond the more bullish of expectations.. but it is still on a trajectory that takes time.. even though it is progressing quite well with the passage of time.

By the way, let's see how El Salvador works out, and if there are other countries wanting to imitate it, so there is the legal tender matter, but there is also the matter of governments holding Bitcoin in their reserves.. so El Salvador is a kind of beginning, but I still doubt that 20 years would be a sufficient time for the contagion of bitcoin to spread to be classified as a world reserve currency.  We will see.. we will see.

Perhaps I am way more interested in guys figuring out their investment strategies rather than making BIG baller claims and assigning high levels of certainty to such claims. 

Don’t take the fun out of it, ser. I like to be the stupid one. Cool

There is nothing wrong with trying to have fun and humor.. but having a goal of wanting to be stupid seems a bit weird... but again.. do what you like.

 Cool

And remember arguing for the mere sake of it can be problematic... but you do you.
7274  Other / Meta / Re: {LIST}of the Merit Sources asking for more smerit. New Round. on: July 31, 2021, 06:38:53 PM

Quote
There are 111 merit sources with a total merit generation of up to 34139 sMerit per 30 days

Generated 34 000 merit, and distributed only ~26 000 merit.

As someone said, it will take a few months for every MS to adjust their pace: you and me were front running our allocation, while other may be on the opposti being “lazy”.

Call me "lazy" if you must.  I would like to call it "pacing" myself or some other more positive way of framing the matter..

I will admit that I did front run mine too a wee bit, too.. and I consider value in some of the front running (not just getting the balance off the books)... but I did not consider front running to be so valuable as to cause me to want to blow the whole wadd...

Yeah.. whatever, whatever, whatever, they be coming back in 30 days... no big deal, right?

For sure, a goal of using all the source quantity in 30 days and achieving it would be maximizing the allocation and reallocation, but without being out of smerits... there is likely still a bit of marginal distribution benefits to the forum to have the smerits distributed more quickly.. but I find 30 days to be a kind of rounding error in the whole balancing of matters.  

On the other hands, the important thing is those merits will trickle down the forum: when a MS sends 100 merits, it would be disappointing seeing 100 merits circulation in the forum, as those merits generate others (up to 196 if I am not wrong…). Try to apply this computation for the 34k…

100 probably generates 96 more for a total of 196 coming from 100.

Edit.. whatever.. you "actual use of maths" guys made the point way better than my lame pointing out.. and I really don't get the infinite point.. because fractions below 1 do not really matter.. in terms of needing to have two .5s to make a 1 to even be able to spend it... but maybe some other point is being made in regards to infinite.

Edit #2.. Ok... I reread my above thoughts on the infinite matter, and sure, I guess that it is making some sense because there will be a lot of smerits that are generated at the .5 smerit threshold, and merely waiting for the other .5 smerits in order to make them spendable.... so that bank of potential all count in some kind of theoretical way (but also in a kind of real way, too).. event though they cannot be spent in a kind of infinite way... of getting smaller and smaller and smaller even while they are just not realized until getting their other .5 smerit match.. so if that unspendableness of the .5 smerit does seem to move it from the theoretical infinite to the actually not infinite category.... but a mere ball of unrealized (but possibly realizable) potentiality in the forum.
7275  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: July 31, 2021, 07:43:29 AM

[edited out]

It’s OK JuanJayGee, I know who I am. I’m only human, making many mistakes, and who gets very excited easily on Bitcoin’s every surge.

hahahaha

Don't worry.  I am not trying to fix you.. that might be a lost cause.. hahahahaha

Cool

But am I truly wrong in believing that the Bitcoin market’s current actions want it to go back, and be like it was the final week January again? Another surge, and Bitcoin would back to the path of reaching a price with 6 digits. Plus when I started the topic only few believed me, when I said that Bitcoin would be a World Reserve Currency, few also believed, but we currently see the actions of some countries’ politicians point to it becoming real.

Nothing wrong with having bullish ideas, so long as you do not get too worked up in believing that you have high levels of certainty of short-term BTC price movements,

I’m the stupid one, and repeatedly say it in the forum, nor have I believed that I have high levels of accuracy, BUT I might currently be right. The stupid one can be right too. Hahaha.

Is there some reason that you want to be right?

I am just thinking that it does not matter very much.... and maybe that is some of the battle that I have with the underlying premise of this thread.... because from my perspective the main ideas in investing in something (such as bitcoin) that is really highly volatile is to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios, including extreme scenarios, and there is almost no way to be right, so if you do happen to be right, it is likely a kind of luck and therefore a so fucking what... so I am having some troubles in regards to either being right or wanting to be right about something that is dependent upon a whole hell of a lot of variables.. .

Sure, of course, many of us are investing into bitcoin because we recognize and appreciate the fundamental values and/or upside scenarios in regards to where bitcoin is going or might go, but even if there is a strong thesis for bitcoin's long term investment thesis, we can also appreciate that in the short term, the asset can be manipulated all over the place, so it becomes very difficult to really know the short term with any level of certainty.. so if you happen to get some kind of short term prediction right... so what?

Are you short term trading?  or just buying on dips so asserting that the dip is in and anyone who has not already bought the dip, better buy.. so sure, there might be some value in that.. I suppose.


and for sure the world reserve currency question has been contemplated since the beginning of bitcoin, so you are hardly saying anything new if you are wanting to proclaim that you made various strong assertions about bitcoin in April 2019, when you created this thread.

I have never heard anyone say it with strong convictions among the infuencial members of Bitcointalk.

Oh gawd.  What about Hal Finney in 209.?   there are all kinds of examples if you are not just selectively making your claims that you are the first person to figure it out in 2019.. I am not going to waste my time to research the fucking 1,000s of peeps in bitcoin who said the same thing way before you... get a grip  Wind_FURY


It might be because they didn’t want to look stupid. It doesn’t matter who said it first, or who last said it, the Honey Badger don’t care. Cool

You probably need to research more.. but still like you said, it does not matter very much, unless some peeps are trying to act like they first came up with some idea or frameworks.. but hey whatever, do what you like..


Perhaps I am way more interested in guys figuring out their investment strategies rather than making BIG baller claims and assigning high levels of certainty to such claims. 

Don’t take the fun out of it, ser. I like to be the stupid one. Cool

There is nothing wrong with trying to have fun and humor.. but having a goal of wanting to be stupid seems a bit weird... but again.. do what you like.
7276  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2021, 07:19:13 AM
go buddy stretch us up and over 44,444.44 by sat morning.

Its bed 🛏 time for me.

But I thought 4 is the number of death, no?

Better pick $55,555.55. We are vaxxed, you know...

That's an interesting proposition, AlcoHoDL - to consider if this run might have a top that is closer to $44,444 or $55,555. 

I hate to lock myself into any scenario that has not happened yet... but sure, there is a kind of need to break through in these lower to mid $40ks that seems likely to fuel more UPpity...

I mean, it's not like we have not been here before.. so $44,444 versus $55,555 seems to be a matter of when rather than "if"....

For me, I can see that there might be some uncertainties regarding if $44,444 is breakable.. and it is surely in a price location that seem to be on the cusp of clearing out most, if any, of the resistance that would exist between $44,444 and $55,555.. so I guess I am suggesting that they do not really seem to be too far apart from one another, yet I am not so brave as to attempt to describe that area as having a high potential for "no man's land"... unless we want to call it some miniature version.. "no babies land".. .but that is not really saying anything... I give up.
7277  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2021, 04:39:36 AM
go buddy stretch us up and over 44,444.44 by sat morning.

Its bed 🛏 time for me.

Does not sound unrealistic, even if some hope may be seen within that request... but may have to define "saturday morning".. UTC time?  or some other time zone?

At least you are not saying $70k.. so there might be some progress, perhaps?  perhaps?    Tongue Tongue

I should not give you any ideas.

what do you think?  $70k by October 1st?  I know that I am tempting you when I go down this road.. you wanna do it, don't you?

Some people have become quite a bit more timid in their UPpity BTC price predictions in recent times.. especially by the end of May or so...

By the way, I do see that you have $70k by December 7th in the dude guessing game.. so maybe you have locked ur lil selfie into such a scenario.. and even perhaps taken away some of the charm of your spontaneity (even though you have some decent tendencies to be wrong - while claiming that you were right.. hahahahaha) even though i am thinking that we have pretty good odds that you will be "under" in your December 7 prediction... but what do I know?  I hate to get too overly optimistic either.. we should be taking these matters as they come, no? 

Enjoy while we have UPpity momentum, even if we cannot really be sure how long it will last... .. even though currently, it does feel that we might be in a decently good set up.. especially with the difficulty adjustment just having had gone into effect with a 6% upwards adjustment. ... seems like a potentially bullish set up... perhaps? perhaps?

I am looking at these two websites:

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

and

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038
7278  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2021, 04:20:38 AM
Do you (suchmoon) believe that we are that gullible in this here thread?

No, not at all. It's not like we believe that hats and memes can move the price of a trillion dollar asset or anything silly like that.

Exactly.

Do you (suchmoon) believe that we are that gullible in this here thread?

No, not at all. It's not like we believe that hats and memes can move the price of a trillion dollar asset or anything silly like that.

Yelling at ChartBuddy works. I have it down to a science.

In other words, we try all kinds of tactics in this here thread, and we find out that some tactics work and some tactics do not.  We even had the planet bodies guy who lasted a few months proclaiming how great his planet bodies system was... his name was jupiter9 or something like that.

Personally, I have found the easiest of tactics is to predict where CB has been, rather than attempting to predict where it is going..   but we do happen to have something like 3 currently credible BTC price prediction models that should be taken into account if trying to figure out where BTC price might be going.. // and sure, from time to time there has been some loss of confidence in such BTC price prediction models (and I am sure that there are some folks who purposefully distract in terms of causing some HODLers (especially newbies) to believe that some other more doom and gloom (fairy dust - or lame ass attempts at reinventing the wheel... (wanting to get credit for novelty) blah blah blah) BTC price prediction models are the ones to go by.. but the actual credible BTC price prediction models should be taken into account even when trying to invent some supposed novel variation, from my humble bumble wannabe perspective.

Just to put names to the face the three currently credible BTC price prediction models are 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects

I doubt that any or all of those currently credible BTC price prediction models cause the BTC price to go in whatever longer term BTC price direction, but they provide some decent guidelines for describing BTC price dynamics and pressures.. especially in the longer term..and any price sorcerer wannabe should be attempting to account for those matters.. short term noise and longer term largely following the models with some variance (and surely no guarantees, either.. so it is good to attempt to remain humble bumbles, to the extent possible.. but sometimes difficult when having had gotten richie.. or at least more richie from staying involve in king daddy).

Right on cue!   Make it happen ChartBuddy!!!

Seems that ChartBuddy has been getting a lot of credit for BTC price movements since life was breathed back into him/her/it by frankenstein.  hahahahaha

If Cathie Wood says Bitcoin is going up to $500K, you would be wise to listen. She’s got the fundraising ability to drive that price or near it with her investment funds and influence. Between her saying 500 and Michael Saylor saying he’ll buy forever, my $200K prediction is starting to feel mild by comparison.

Yep.. you are a softie in your sorcery wannabe aspirations, relatively speaking.  I speculate that you may have invented your own model, too?

One thing that I like about willy woo and his attempts at describing his own models, he kind of keeps his targets floating... but if you recall earlier in the year, he did get a bit overly confident in regards to betting that something like mid-$40ks or lower would not be reached in this calendar year, so yeah he was right until he wasn't... but does not make him a bad woo woo kind of a price predictor - and if he considers part of his job to be a price analysts (including selling a news letter), then surely it would not hurt to enter into a few bets along the way... betting can be good for business.
7279  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2021, 12:21:33 AM
[edited out]
What the hell!  I might as well go for the triple play and leave the window open tonight too!  Don't try to talk me out of it; my mind is made up.

Good job.  The latest data seems to be that farts are contagious too, so hopefully, on balance, with your windows opened, you will be letting out more farts than you are letting in (cutting back on the ramen should help, too).


... found the Annuki contactee monitoring WO!

(using an image of a reptile speaking from authority is a dead giveaway btw)

That pokemon's name is Snivy, so you are not fooling me for one minute when you attempt to disguise a pokemon.  

A typical suchmoon below the belt move.

 Do you (suchmoon) believe that we are that gullible in this here thread?
7280  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2021, 10:52:16 PM
Choo Choo! All aboard the $50k train, hop on now or miss it forever!

It does feel as if we have a kind of UPpity momentum that could well be disposed to recking a few more shorts (what the heck.. they kind of deserve it after the last couple of months of their mostly getting their way)... but I am still somewhat shell-shocked from the last 2.5 months, so I am a little bit afraid to go towards presuming $50k is in the bag, yet.  

'fundamental poster' as a meme?
everyone knows OG meaning, maybe it's time to foster interest in FP denomination.

instead of esquire, etc, we would have

such and such, FP (we have way too many legendaries, lol).
OR, such and such Legendary &  FP would be cool and useful in a citadel  Wink .

What would be the criteria to get into such a club or to have such label?

have a hat

been around the block a few times (at least one whole cycle?)

owns at least 0.21BTC (in 2021, but may well have to change this entry-level portfolio-size requirement to 0.021BTC at some point before 2025).
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