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741  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 05:11:26 PM
The difference between hoarding and saving is the expectation of windfall profits, or (in the case of the crazy person) the "saving" of items that have no value in the market.  Saving doesn't entail expectation of windfall profits.  That's not to say it can't happen, and of course when you put money into the bank you hope it increases in value, but the proper definition of saving does not involve an expectation of windfall profits in the future.  Amassing a storehouse of guns and liquor in anticipation of the apocalypse, however, that is hoarding. 

"Windfall profits"... that is a subjective valuation essentially meaning "too many profits". Rather like "hoarding" = "saving too much".

If I hold 1 BTC with the expectation that it will someday buy me a house, is that hoarding?

If I hold 5,000,000 BTC with the expectation of a mild increase in value, is that hoarding?
742  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How BitCoin Can Benefit The US Government. (add to the list) on: May 31, 2011, 05:07:29 PM
I find myself spending a lot of time trying to pull people away from a vision of BTC that they want to be true, versus the reality of it.

Without even realizing that your vision of Bitcoin is not the same as the reality of Bitcoin either. Impressive!

OK I'll bite.  What am I missing?  What have I said that is inaccurate?  Instead of taking a pot shot at me, why don't you educate us?

This is what you are missing:

Quote
With btc Bob does not have plausible deniability, because every single BTC transaction is documented.

The block chain records transactions between addresses, not identities. How will they prove that the address belongs to Bob? In fact, why will they even think that the address belongs to Bob?
743  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Early speculator's reward antidote on: May 31, 2011, 05:05:41 PM
Miners seem determined anyway to improve the chance of early adopters of any new blockchain being able to make coins with trivial ease. They accomplish this simply by not mining new blockchains and by verbiage aimed at discouraging other miners from mining new block chains.

[Citation needed]
744  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Early speculator's reward antidote on: May 31, 2011, 05:04:43 PM
Please spend your fortune and implement this as BCPCoin - then we'll see how many people want to use your system. Or just donate your coins and be done with it. But the incessant whining is just too much.

Yeah, I'm sure you (casascius) will have no problem providing proof that you've converted all 25,000 of your coins into BCP, right? I mean, you're not providing any benefit by investing in that system before anyone else, right?
745  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 05:02:05 PM
Speculation is defined as "investment involving high risk but also the possibility of high profits"  My definition did not focus on risk, hoarding doesn't necessarily involve high risk, it merely involves an anticipation of windfall profits due to either scarcity of the resource or external catastrophe (or both).  You can hoard something that is not a high risk asset, speculation requires a high risk of loss. 

If you are saving something in order to capitalize on anticipated future increase in value, you are speculating on its future value.

I think in most cases you are correct.  The dictionary definition, however, generally looks at speculation as a risky investment.  Most of the time an asset that may appreciate significantly might also decline in value significantly.  But this is not necessary for hoarding.  For example, I could "hoard" guns and liquor on the belief that anarchy will break out and these commodities will become incredibly valuable.  But I don't think this is "speculation" because these are not high risk assets, and they generally maintain their value over time.

Ok, I agree with you on this point, but what is the difference between "hoarding" guns and liquor and "saving" guns and liquor? Can I save something with the expectation that it will increase in value, or is that always hoarding?

Does that mean that putting aside an asset is only saving if you expect it to stay the same or decrease in value?
746  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How BitCoin Can Benefit The US Government. (add to the list) on: May 31, 2011, 05:00:19 PM
I find myself spending a lot of time trying to pull people away from a vision of BTC that they want to be true, versus the reality of it.

Without even realizing that your vision of Bitcoin is not the same as the reality of Bitcoin either. Impressive!
747  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 04:56:38 PM
Speculation is defined as "investment involving high risk but also the possibility of high profits"  My definition did not focus on risk, hoarding doesn't necessarily involve high risk, it merely involves an anticipation of windfall profits due to either scarcity of the resource or external catastrophe (or both).  You can hoard something that is not a high risk asset, speculation requires a high risk of loss. 

If you are saving something in order to capitalize on anticipated future increase in value, you are speculating on its future value. You can speculate over any time period... minutes or years. Would you consider it hoarding to buy one bitcoin expecting that its value will increase in the next two minutes?
748  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 04:40:35 PM
Burning federal reserve notes removes them from circulation, is that hoarding?

My point is that when people use the term "hoarding", what they really mean is "saving more than I think is necessary", which is why I used the bit about personal preference.
749  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How BitCoin Can Benefit The US Government. (add to the list) on: May 31, 2011, 04:28:09 PM

Federal reserve notes have serial numbers, which may be recorded when placed into an ATM. Perhaps they then look at which bills with withdrawn by which account and/or retrieve ATM video footage. Or maybe I've been watching too many police shows.
recording a small serial number from a blurry, black and white, 480*360 camera? good luck.

No, I meant that the bank may record which bills were placed into which machine. Then, the police do a reverse lookup on the serial number, finding the bank. The bank then tells police which ATM they were last placed in and the police watch the video camera footage from the ATM to see who makes withdrawals. I think I actually saw this on Castle, so I'm not sure if it's viable or not.
750  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 04:25:45 PM
I'll give 5 BTC to anyone who can provide an economic definition of "hoarding" which does not rely on personal preference and is demonstrably different than "saving".

I'll give it a shot:

Hoarding has three general meanings in an economic sense.  They are as follows: (1) acquiring excessive quantities of items that have little value in the market (think the crazy person who hoards paperclips), (2) acquisition based on an expectation that certain items will become extremely valuable related to current values during times of economic, political, or environmental crisis, or (3) acquisition based on on an expectation that such items will become extremely valuable compared with current values due to future scarcity.

Saving, on the other hand, merely involves guarding or preserving an asset for future use.  It does not require an expectation of future windfall profits, or excessive acquisition of items that have little value in the market. 

Did I win?

1JxsbbP2k5KHYGWtmggT7yJJ4eRtj7n9sJ

1) does not apply to this discussion, though you are correct, but it relies on a subjective evaluation of "excessive"
2 and 3) seem to be a definitions for speculation, not hoarding
751  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 04:17:17 PM
The one thing that I wish that everyone understood when they got out of high school is the concept of the dynamic equilibrium.

Concept of the dynamic equilibrium works on large ensembles only, and also, on large time intervals, compared with single interaction's time. For now, to input/output BTC/$/goods from the bitcoin market, one may spend many hours or even days. Even if one sell/buy a small thing like T-shirt or coffee-cup or $ equivalent of that.

From physical point of view, Bitcoin society is like a highly rarefied gas, with some thousands of atoms, @ time intervals of some microseconds. It is apparently NOT an equilibrium system.



What the hell are you babbling about? How is selling anything for bitcoins any different than selling them for dollars or seashells?
752  Economy / Economics / Re: The current Bitcoin economic model doesn't work on: May 31, 2011, 03:45:48 PM
I'll give 5 BTC to anyone who can provide an economic definition of "hoarding" which does not rely on personal preference and is demonstrably different than "saving".
753  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Early speculator's reward antidote on: May 31, 2011, 03:42:58 PM
How is my example beneficial?  In profiting from BTC, I have given nothing to society.  I have only taken.

You have not profited until you sell your coins. At that point, you are providing coins to individuals who wish to purchase them at that price.

Is this really a difficult concept?
754  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How BitCoin Can Benefit The US Government. (add to the list) on: May 31, 2011, 03:06:08 PM
Sure, but how long will these 50 btc block remain stale.  If the currency takes of some of the initial transactions will be mostly anonymous (I doubt this, because I know of dbs that have been tracking ip address of connections etc.), but as they get used (is that what they're for) slowly we'll be able to track a btc and it's journey through the btc economy.

I don't follow...

Quote
When the DEA kicks in the door for a major drug bust, they get a list of btc addresses used for drug transactions.  They can now go into the blockchain and look at every address that sent money to these accounts, and possibly track down the users.

They can see addresses, but that does not necessarily help them turn those addresses into identities.

Let's say the drug dealers used address A. They could see a transaction from B to A, and C to B, and D to C, but unless there is some link between a person's identity and one of those addresses, the transaction history is no help.

Quote
If the DEA found cash.... well.... unless your fingerprints, or the bill was marked, they aren't going to tie the cash back to the users.

Federal reserve notes have serial numbers, which may be recorded when placed into an ATM. Perhaps they then look at which bills with withdrawn by which account and/or retrieve ATM video footage. Or maybe I've been watching too many police shows.

Anyway, I agree that bitcoins may be easier to track sometimes, but that is not necessarily true in all cases. If a person knows what they're doing, they can fairly easily obfuscate or completely erase their financial tracks.
755  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How BitCoin Can Benefit The US Government. (add to the list) on: May 31, 2011, 02:44:17 PM
One of the biggest misconceptions of bitcoin is the level of anonymity.  Cash is FAR more anonymous than btc.

Not necessarily. Generated bitcoin have no transaction history and would be very difficult to link to an identity. Same with an individual that never publicly publishes an address that can be linked to their identity.

Also, cash cannot be transferred over long distances as easily as bitcoin.

756  Economy / Economics / Re: difficulty too high while bitcoin society too small on: May 31, 2011, 01:16:45 PM
Afterburner, I suggest you start your own block chain with your superior ruleset. I'm sure everyone will see how awesome it is and drop Bitcoin like a hot bowl of semen!
757  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 4chan takes a chance on you on: May 30, 2011, 11:59:25 PM
IMO, Anonymous should set up an "official" (how?) Bitcoin address for each operation. I would gladly donate to fund operations that I morally supported and was reasonably certain would go to the correct individuals.
758  Economy / Economics / Re: The Ultimatum Game on: May 30, 2011, 11:53:51 PM
@bituser, how do you feel about missing out on 0.5 BTC?

One way to think of this is that you had a sure (almost) 0.5 in your hand, but then you gambled it all in order to get 0.65 (you gambled 100% to get a 30% return).

Also, would the outcome of this game change the way you would play the game in the future?
759  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Welfare is deforming children! on: May 30, 2011, 09:54:46 PM
How is theft ever fair? How is theft ever necessary unless you're starving?

It hardly ever is, that's why I'm more of a Libertarian than a Liberal.

Can you give some examples of types of scenarios when theft is morally acceptable?
760  Other / Off-topic / Re: Political compass! (who believes what?) on: May 30, 2011, 08:30:36 PM
while i believe that markets in general should not be 'regulated' by the state i strongly support one strike rule - if company decide to knowingly sell something dangerous\risky or simply wrong described stuff it should be wiped out from the market by the state

i should be able to buy anything from everyone and anyone should be able to sell me anything, but as soon as some one forgot to mentioned that "new batch of lcds have tn screen instead of ips (that they shipped to reviewers and stores for display)" or "that used to be spring water but now we use tap water without changing label" they should be punished hard

Why not just stop buying the products of disreputable businesses? Isn't that much easier than trying to keep a limit on the power of a small state that is allowed to "wipe out" companies. What do you think it will do when people decide it is no longer necessary and try to "wipe out" the state itself?
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