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7401  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Past two months bitcoin journey on: July 16, 2021, 01:45:21 PM
At least, @OP did a good job by invest in bitcoin. I suggest that you stop buying gaming stuff for a while because you need to focus on investing in bitcoin.

For sure, a lot of people ask questions regarding which kinds of things that they can give up and not really notice, but for sure some of those same people are going to get anxious if they see a 2x or 5x price appreciation and perhaps want to sell and might end up timing the market wrong or maybe cashing out and then not buying back in the amount of BTC that they sold.  There are a lot of ways to screw up your bitcoin investment when you start to value your wealth in various consumption goods.. and start to cash out way too soon, when sometimes there can be way better strategies to cut back on the various consumption goods (whether junk food or other discretionary items), and then once the bitcoin investment quantity gets to a decent sum.. perhaps start to consume those discretionary items with other money while just maintaining the quantity of bitcoin on the side.. for a longer term time horizon of just HODLing... until reaching fuck you status or something higher up in the time to cash out timeline in the even that a person might be considering using the BTC in connection with a kind of retirement status.

When you can make a lot of money from your investment, you can buy the gaming stuff anytime and any product you want. Investing $360 in two months is good, and if you can continue doing that, you will have more satoshi and when the price increase in the next month, you will make a profit. But investing like that needs consistency and calm down because the price will fluctuate.

Some people will base their investment quantity on a kind of consideration of something like how much it costs for junk food.. and other people might aim for something like 10% of their income... and sure there could be variance in terms of getting carried away with the amount.. and then maybe even some attempts to time the larger swings in the market too... or setting an accumulation goal and then attempting to merely maintain once reaching the accumulation goals... when you are in your 20s you might be ok. having most if not all of your assets in one asset class, but some folks do like to diversify into other assets too.. and I am certainly of the understanding that so many people lack in having any investments beyond their house so frequently they may have to start with learning about one investment at a time.. and bitcoin is likely a good one for a starting point for people who might not have any other major investments.. and build up to a certain point, whether that is $10k of value or $20k or some higher amount might depend on what part of the world you live in (what are the expenses in that area) and then also what kinds of skills do you have to generate income (some people will invest in education or other ways to attempt to increase their chances of being able to generate higher income with their skills or certificates or licenses or who they know (who you know, not what you know ideas, too)).

[edited out]
Thank you. It would be great if I saw your suggestion last year. The cost of my Bitcoin is about $6,000, with 10 coins at the most. Unfortunately, I hurriedly sold it in fear. (That was the first time I faced such a large decline. My heart really collapsed. Because it was a lot of money.) To be honest, when I decided to invest, I never thought I would lose so much. Now I have learned to set profit and loss.

I think that it tends to take a long time to both figure out a strategy that works for you and then to employ such strategy in an effective way and in a long term way... in which you do not get overly excited about cashing out because you are worried about the ups and downs of the value of the investments.. so sure that might be part of the problem in getting rich too quick in one asset class because you start to feel imbalanced and like you have to cash out to preserve what gains that you have made up to that point of time... and then as you experienced, you might take a winner investment and then turn it into something a lot more mediocre or way less than its potential.  Lots of people make mistakes in bitcoin, and some people learn along the way, and some other people might get bitter or move over to shitcoins, which might not be good resolutions.. especially if you may well be trying to establish long term strategies that are likely to be effective.

DCA is one of the best and most effective strategies for accumulating bitcoin and also just long term accumulating no matter what the price, especially if you consider that you have a decently long timeline .. at least, in bitcoin there has been a tendency of even coins bought at the top of the cycle to become profitable in less than 4 years (no guarantee that the ongoing profitability will continue).  If you are continuing to invest into bitcoin there are still pretty damned likely indications that it is going to continue to perform at least as good as any other investment over the long term..

and surely, I personally don't think that there are any shitcoins out there worthy of investing any more than perhaps 10% of your total crypto value.. at most.. so in my own thinking more than 90% of your crypto investment should be in bitcoin, unless you specifically have some insider knowledge and in and out assurances regarding some other projects - considering that you might be involved in a scam or a pump and dump too... which morally I have some difficulties going down that kind of a path.. in terms of how I want to focus my efforts, my money and my thinking.

Regarding diversification, the threshold for when it is good to do so might be different for each of us, and usually there is some need to diversify into other asset classes, and so when you get to that stage, you might be kind of considering the balancing of attempting to grow funds, not put principle at too much risk, and preserving principle (and even preserving gains)... but yeah, getting emotionally caught up about whether something in profitable in the short term might not be a great perspective, because if something that you believe in, such as bitcoin, is down in price, it may well be a time to buy (or at least just HODL) rather than sell... so then another question is when to sell or just maybe how much to shave off because a lot of people who consider something as a long term investment might either just let it completely ride through the ups and downs or just sell very small portions as the price goes up.. and even that selling could get carried away if you lose sight and end up selling too much too soon.. imagine so many people who ended up selling their bitcoin in 2017 the $1ks, 2ks and $3ks and then the price went up to $20k.. and not even saying that it would have been necessary to sell anything in the 20ks, so long as you were able to ride out the cycle for 3 more years from late 2017 to late 2020 when the BTC bought at $20k became profitable again...

and just by looking that the DCA link that I had provided, you can change the dates in there and then see that a person who ended up investing $50 per week through the whole 4-year cycle (which is an amount that is reasonably within grasp for a decent number of people - even though it may take some ongoing budget balancing persistence), that person would have ended up investing a bit more than $10k but having had accumulated about 1 1/3 bitcoins... which surely is not a bad place to be.. just as a foundation for building wealth that may well do quite well to continue to DCA or just stop the DCA'ing and just let that sit for 10 years or longer.. even though I would recommend to continue DCA'ing until you really reach a status that is getting somewhere close to fuck you status....

One of the potential problems in BTC, and has happened historically is that an investor could well end up investing a reasonably aggressive (but not too much in terms of overall budget) into BTC, then the BTC rises in value way more than any other investments that s/he has.. and that can cause the investor to become emotional too in terms of questioning whether to let his/her winner continue to ride or to pull some out.. sometimes the better situation could be to let the winner ride; however, there might also be a need to pull some value out in order to dampen down some of the emotions that inevitably come from having too many eggs in one basket, and the investor will likely feel much better by having some value in other investments.. and then perhaps once there is value in some other investments, the investor can either continue to invest more aggressively in bitcoin or just let it continue to let BTC ride, once some of the other base assets might be established to protect from the emotions that likely come if bitcoin has a 50% or so dip (where we are at right now) and sometimes bitcoin has had 85% or so dips, such as in 2018, 2020, and earlier periods too.. in 2014/2015 and earlier.. but maybe if we go too far back, people have harder times considering the bitcoin of back then as the same as bitcoin as an investment today.
7402  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Past two months bitcoin journey on: July 16, 2021, 04:17:54 AM
Great to see that you are investing gradually everyweek , if you will maintain this increase each week then you will be putting thousand dollars after couple of months investing?

I have been doing the same thing but with fix amount per 15days( because that is my Payday) amounting 40$ every 15 days means 80 dollars a month and that is i can only afford for now.

But all the amount i earn from other money making i do is also dropping for  my investment .

Will be following this thread if how long will you make it to the top.

How long have you been doing that, bitterguy?

6 months?   a year?  longer?  It can take a while to build up your investment in anything. and the earlier you are in your investing career the longer it seems to take to see results.. and sometimes you may even feel like you are spinning your wheels for several years.. but $80 per month is not a bad amount, especially if it is manageable for you and you are not stressing out your cashflow too much. 

There is a need to also have some cash set aside for emergencies, so that you do not have to dip into your investments... so people do need to be careful about not overinvesting into something in which they are going to have to draw into at a time that might not be of their own choosing.. and that is a lot of the rational of having a certain amount of emergency cash that is just there.. just in case...
7403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2021, 04:05:47 AM
Not creating any FUDs however, just wanted to share one analysis: Last time when RSI went below 20, we touched 27k.
I truely believe in Bitcoin however risk management is really important. Do not hate me for sharing this.



Why not hate on you?

Seems fair enough to hate on you when you ONLY spout out that you believe in down and hardly even discuss any kind of specifics.. are you looking at daily candles? hourly?  Weekly? what?  Do you understand anything else about bitcoin in terms of where we might be at, how we got here that might help to determine where we might be going, to the extent that short-term even matters very much in terms of is there action that you are suggesting.. psychological preparations?  or what?  Prepare to buy some more BTC if you have not been buying for the past 2 months?  or what?  I can feel more and more reasons for hate when there are vague spouting outs of downity, without hardly any context.

By the way, factually we have not touched $27k, yet.  The lowest in this correction has been $28.6k, so far.  We use Bitstamp in these here parts for our general BTC price reference... unless you are specifying some specific or location that you are finding your number (to the extent that your number even matters because right now we are bouncing around the arena of $31,950 as I type this post), so if you are selectively shopping around for a lower price because you want your emphasis to be stronger, you better snap the fuck out of it, and get on the same page about BTC price references.

For sure, I am not going to argue that the odds are NOT greater than 48% that we may well end up testing the lows of this cycle again.. Sure there could be decent odds of testing $28.6k that might even go greater than 55.5%.. but I doubt that they are even much greater than that, even if there was some kind of benefit of the doubt that RSI below 20 actually means anything in terms of some kind of increased likelihood of testing (or retesting) $28.6k.. and even if it matters very much if we were to test support at $28.6k versus going the other way and retesting resistance at $35k... .but hey...

Yeah, let's see how the next 48 criticaltm hours play out.. down?  up?  or sideways?  (or might we need a longer context?  not sure we could have down, up and sideways in the next 48 hours, but usually we have to have one at a time.. so currently we do seem to be having some downity pressures that have been going on for a bit more than a week, but it is NOT really a whole hell of a lot of downity, if we zoom out, it almost looks flat, even though on the down part of the consolidating range.. so does it even matter unless there might be a break out in one direction or another.. sure, when we are on the down side of a range, we might break down, but then we could end up breaking up, too... so I am not sure why we would presume one direction over another having much greater than 50/50 odds.. got me there.



Nick Szabo blocked me on Twitter. I have no idea why.

It's probably him, not uie-poo-ie..

#nohomo


One time he even liked a reply of mine. Then, blocked.

I feel that way about you too, sometimes.

But hey.. .feelings... nothing more than feelings, right?


Weird.

True dat.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

Don't shoot dee messenger.... 
7404  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Past two months bitcoin journey on: July 16, 2021, 03:43:26 AM
If you can ignore the price to buy bitcoin every week or month and last for more than a year, it will be really great, and it will definitely be an unexpected surprise. I bought it every month in 2019, but sold it on March 13, 2020. This is my most failed decision. I sincerely hope that you can do what I haven't done well.

Of course, there is no guaranteed price performance with bitcoin, but historically, one of the best ways to invest in bitcoin has been dollar cost averaging and continuing that process, and the longer than any BTC HODLer/accumulator is engaged in bitcoin investing the more likely that s/he is in profits and the amount of the profits is likely to be greater, greater and greater with the passage of time... again .. no guarantees.

Take your example of starting out investing in BTC in the beginning of 2019 and continuing until this date.  If you had invested $200 per month (or $50 per week) for that whole time, you would have had around $6,650 invested until this date, and your BTC accumulation amount would have been around 0.715BTC, and so that would have been worth nearly $24k - so almost 2.6x in profits.  Not bad.. not bad.. especially for a $50/week or $200/month ongoing investment... and perhaps it could be an amount that you are not too attached to in terms of if you ended up losing it all, so it would be preferable that you do not get emotional if the BTC price UP, DOWN or sideways... and perhaps 10 years later, you can start contemplating whether you have enough BTC or whether you might need to change your BTC accumulation strategy.

One thing about being in the midst of the largest wealth transfer in history, it would be nice to have some of that valuable asset.. and to accumulate such asset (whether you believe that there is actually a wealth transfer or not going on), and in the process of accumulating the asset (referring to bitcoin here), you do not necessarily need to invest a lot to have the potential of profiting considerably... that's kind of the nature of an asymmetric bet, to be able to invest a little, but still be able to have the potential of profiting a lot, even if such high profit scenario does not end up playing out as high as you wished it would have and also a possibility that what had seemed to have been an asymmetric bet ends up failing (or falling on its face, completely).
7405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 11:23:25 PM





#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 


Just a real man's arm, a real bitcoiner's arm with some stonecold diamond HODLer hands attachted to them.....

Just the ones a mortal guy wants to avoid at all time  Kiss Tongue

You are then ready for the elusive “Hairy wrists gallery”:

#meritislife: how to be notified on a smartband of merits and mentions

The most complete gallery of the hairy bitcointalk users’ wrists.

hahahaha

I admit that I purposefully left the whole claim of hairy and gross in a kind of ambiguous way, because you know that sometimes it is good to leave a joke or an exaggeration as a bit vague, in order for it to be MOAR funnier...

But I will just clarify that was not really referring to the wrist hair, but instead the forearm hair that kind of interfere with the dude tattoo image.. .. and the hair look/distraction (of the "real man") comes out more on the larger picture...
7406  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Past two months bitcoin journey on: July 15, 2021, 09:04:14 PM
I have doing this from past two months now and planning it to carry on for long time as i know that my returns will be high in long run
You'll probably be inflationarily secure, but I'm just adding some wise words from John Maynard Keynes:  “In the long run we are all dead”.


Maybe there's going to be a lesson bitcoin's price doesn't always go up in months, But the OP is planning to HODL for 6 months, There's a good possibility price might go up during that time like last year but it's not guaranteed, not trying to be a duche bag but... OP tell me will remember the french fries and burgers you could've eaten if the price of bitcoin goes down under 10k USD?  Grin

No guarantee that the price will go up in such time frame but who knows, there's always possibilities just need to have a good
mindset waiting for your target.

6 months is good enough to see progress, once the market start to bounce back surely it will give decent compensation to
your investment.

I think that 6 months is too impatient of a time period in order to be expecting that you have to see positive results in your BTC portfolio.  A large number of bitcoiners do not consider bitcoin as a get rich quick scheme, even  if a lot of bitcoiners have incidentally gotten pretty damned well off from bitcoin... so there tends to be a lot of value in both deferring gratification and not expecting that you have to always have positive and quick UP price performance in order to feel satisfied with bitcoin as an investment and investment strategy. 

In other words, bitcoin is quite likely strong enough to be an investment that the investor should be willing to invest and wait for 4 your years.  Of course, every person who gets into bitcoin retains discretion to cash out early or to take profits at any time whether waiting for four years or longer or cashing out in a shorter timeline if s/he feels that is what s/he wants to do, but bitcoin seems to be a very good long term investment for 4 years or greater.. so yeah, not sure how OP might feel if BTC is at $10k or some low amount in 6 months, and if he might be able to retain his conviction to continue to buy, which is likely the right approach is to continue to buy, especially if there is nothing broken about bitcoin's fundamentals....

so what creates strong fundamentals is another question, and surely there are some folks who are going to get shaken from bitcoin based on price movements or even fears about fundamentals that might not be sufficient to shake a longer term HODLer of conviction... so great price corrections and even BTC prices staying low for a much longer time than expected can be very good tests of conviction even though they are not necessary, the strong tests do happen from time to time including the BTC price going against your interests (or your projections) for much longer than you may have thought to be possible, but pure DOWNity price dynamics should not be a condition sufficient to shake anyone of their conviction if there is no other meaningful negative issue beyond ongoing negative price dynamics.
7407  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: My Past two months bitcoin journey on: July 15, 2021, 05:49:01 PM
for difficult times like this, persistence is really needed to boost the optimism that this crypto business can run properly.because every month there will always be a significant.change in price, especially at this time it is the most.difficult thing we experience with price declines.that keeps.happening, hopefully.this will only be temporary for investors

Hopefully OP has a 4-10 year investment timeline, so in that case, this dip is temporary, even if it might last 4 years. 

In other words, DCA investing presumes decently strong fundamentals in the underlying (in this case bitcoin - we are not referring to crypto.. and OP specifically said that he is ONLY buying bitcoin, so your use of the term
"crypto" probably indicates that you have some muddied thinkenings about this topic), but there is hardly any kind of ability to know how the short-term might play out... so accordingly, price dips are considered as opportunities to obtain more of the underlying asset (in this case bitcoin). 

For sure, with any investment, we could well be in negative profits (aka losses - on paper) for a long period of time while we are building our base... again, if there is confidence in the underlying, then investing continues in spite of possibly being negative profits for a long period of time.. then the next part remains that profits are never guaranteed, and so if OP (or anyone else) is not investing more than s/he can afford to lose, then in that sense, there is always a kind of hope and expectations that the fundamentals are at least as strong as you speculate them to be in terms of going up in the longer term (or at least up enough that you would be in profits in the future).
7408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 05:39:28 PM
Pepper Your Angus


Sub $30,000 today.

You think?
7409  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 04:40:24 PM
Hello WO bros Smiley




wen moon?

Soontm


Ten paciencia mujer...!!!!!.  Angry Angry

always loved that way of expressing the patience idea.



But... but.. I want now?


Ok jokes aside, I'm pretty sure we'll go and test low 20k levels and wouldn't that be healthy for the whole market?

Leaving BTC aside, the whole shitcoin shit is gone WAY over the edge, we need a large breather to get that shit sorted out.

Nevertheless, BTC is as strong as ever and the race to 1mil continues steadily. We'll be there soon enough!

I hear it often low 20’s especially hear it when where almost there, guessing lower is more easy speaking as guessing up, but it’s all just fools guessing imho

We have a more as 50% drop imho this is a larger drop with lots of consolidation and more as healthy imho, a bit sideways etc etc but not necessarily needed for low 20’s to be “healthy” if that is the way then I’ll be riding the wave….

But i’m surely NOT sell any of my BTC’s in order of buying them back 2/3 of the price where having now, it would be a very sweet deal NOT?

hahahahaha

You are very right on this point dude....

You know there are a quite a few people who make this gamble, and gosh even if the odds were to be greater than 50/50 that we are going down before up (which I doubt that they are), I would wager that there are a whole hell of a lot of them who are betting as if the odds were way greater than 50/50.. and maybe even giving odds that are in the 80% to 90% arena (because they fail/refuse to adequately prepare for up.. and also they falsely give way too much value to fiat.. I am not saying that fiat is NOT valuable.. but assigning too high of a value to it continues to be a common mistakes of normies, bitcoin naysayers, no coiners, precoiners, shit coin pumpeners, and a lot of the other category of deluded peeps out there who fail/refuse or neglect to adequately understand bitcoin and probably even presume they understand bitcoin when the facts are likely going to prove them wrong... we will see.  We will see.).


But I’ll not be betting any of my stash for that…….

That's called gambling.. and sure.. if do it with a small amount, such as 100 btc or less when you happen to have 10,000 BTC, then no biggie... hahahaha look at me talking BIG,.. I meant satoshis.. shit,  I keep getting the units messed up.  confusing that.....  Wink Wink



Cheers

I do like you and respect your thinking for sure, but imho opinion it’s not necessarily needed to be “healthy”

I can see that you (the dude) like Kylapoiss because you failed/refused to put any kind of proper disclaimer (referring to seemingly worn out #nohomo one... I proclaim that I am not even jealous, either.. he's part of your team.. I kind of understand).
7410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 04:18:02 PM
Hello WO bros Smiley




wen moon?

Soontm


Ten paciencia mujer...!!!!!Angry Angry

always loved that way of expressing the patience idea.



But... but.. I want now?


Ok jokes aside, I'm pretty sure we'll go and test low 20k levels and wouldn't that be healthy for the whole market?

hahahaha

Lookie at uie.  Using reverse psychology upon us when you asked about "wen moon" when you are really expecting (perhaps hoping) for down before up.

I don't have any problem with any possibility that down could happen before up, but it does seem a bit presumptuous to either be expecting that it is necessary to happen.

Another thing, if we have a bull market, the better presumption for any breakout would be that the break out happens in the upwards direction.. that is kind of the definition of a bull market.

I do understand that we could still be in a bull market but there is a kind of need that the BTC price corrects a bit more down before it is able to go up, which seems to be in the ballpark of what you might be considering.  Part of my problem with that angle is the fact that we have already experienced a 56% price correction, which should have already sufficiently sorted out enough froth in the system, but sure, if there is more froth that needs to be purged, then of course both water and bitcoin are going to flow in the direction of least resistance.. so in that kind of scenario, there could be some kind of need for additional purgenings of the 14-year snot noses. 

So maybe in the end, we are 50/50 on direction.. but I do believe that we are both in a bull market, and I might even have some issues that not ONLY are you making a pretty strong implication that $25k is NOT going to hold, but also suggesting a need to revisit lower $20ks which may be just another way of saying that the break down of $25k support is not likely to be a mere wick... so there are almost two levels to the degree of correction that you expect and are even going to so far as to say is needed... in your up before down vision of this here current BTC price dynamics.




Leaving BTC aside, the whole shitcoin shit is gone WAY over the edge, we need a large breather to get that shit sorted out.

Seems to me that you did not word that sentence properly, because we (perhaps royal we?) do not "leave aside" king daddy in this thread.. because the this thread is about bitcoin.. so fuck shitcoins.  On the other hand, I do agree that shitcoin froth is related to bitcoin, so I am not going to battle with you on that point, so likely our only area of contention in this particular sentence pertains to your word choice in leaving aside our savior and the only thing that really matters.. there would be no crypto currencies or shitcoins without such essential element, aka bitcoin.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Nevertheless, BTC is as strong as ever and the race to 1mil continues steadily. We'll be there soon enough!

Can't really argue with you about this, whether we consider "soon enough" as this cycle, the next cycle or the one after that.  Seems most likely to be coming in the next cycle, but I would not want to presume too much in terms of either this cycle or the following cycle as being reasonable candidates - even though the amount of overshoot to be getting $1 million on this cycle would quite likely cause a quite considerable correction, at least from my current view (speculation of course) of how such an overshoot would end up playing out.
7411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 01:22:25 AM
Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..

Well, we know he didn't need to touch it for 9 years, and he took care of the keys so he could move it at the current time. People who would have been into bitcoin 9 years ago most likely didn't need the money as it was no way for anyone back then to profit from immediately.

Someone bought pizza for 10k coins ...

He couldn't have possibly predicted he'd have $24 million today. Maybe he did? He didn't need the coins for 9 years, an additional $3 million ... in addition to any income he currently has now or whatever wealth he has, on the assumption he was an early adopter of bitcoin that did not need the money, but actually believed in the tech, or decided, "hey I'll buy like $100 worth of bitcoin today" 9 years ago or however much 750 coins cost him if it wasn't mined or earned otherwise.

We don't really know, we are all speculating ...

When I look at 9 years ago, I see a bitcoin price around $5 per coin.. so it is not a trivial amount, whether it was mined or purchased.  That is around $3,750 for 750 BTC.

Otherwise, I do not really have anything to add because I believe that I said my part in regard to the plausibility of the 9 year coma or whatever other possible reasonable way of framing a situation in which coins would be ignored for 9 years in which the BTC price appreciated in value around 6,600x.  Not a trivial matter in which one would just completely ignore without either having other resources or having had been in a coma.. and the first of which seems quite a bit more plausible to this here electronic cat.


No, it wasn't a horrible estimate.  I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude.  Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks.  But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together. 

I will try to leave it at that.  I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.

I did add another zero to the estimate, at $100 million per coin. Would that be considered off by 1 order of magnitude? I also understand you can be going in the other direction, which would mean $1 million per coin ... That's also an order of magnitude lower.

Yes, I was thinking about 1 order of magnitude as adding or subtracting a zero too, and as you seem to imply Dabs, it seems way too premature for Spaceman to be suggesting that either Hal was off or which direction that might be, if so...   
7412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 10:53:27 PM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

... you've pulled the piece of Hal's comment out of context. The full comment was about the asymmetric upside bet. To estimate the asymmetry he needed a ballpark figure for an upside value of btc, at the time it was worthless, so to get an order of magnitude estimate Hal used total global wealth which for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate is fine.

... then he compared the upside value potential of bitcoin with the odds of bitcoin achieving monetary dominance, which he then estimated only needed to be less than 100 million to 1 for to make sense to acquire/hodl some bitcoin, which at the time were worthless remember. He was resoundingly right and the statement still stands, the asymmetric bet was worth it.

Edit; relevant portion of Hal's comment

Quote
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal
His broader point about game theory was spot on, but I don't think I pulled his reasoning for arriving at the 10 million usd number out of context at all.  He clearly says  "if BTC becomes dominant, then it should equal the value of all the wealth in the world".
Which is faulty logic.  I don't like pointing this out as Hal seemed to be a very likeable and smart person, and given his early involvement deserves to be seen as a hero of sorts.  But people throw this number around as if it was some magic truth predicted by the prophet, and it's just wrong.

Oh gawd.   Roll Eyes

If one of Hal's main points was to attempt to characterize aspects of bitcoin's asymmetric bet like Marcus mentioned (edit, and mentioned in a subsequent post that was posted 5 10 minutes before this post of mine), then why get so fucking caught up on the details of how Hal might have been wrong about some details or how people might worship him, when none of that hardly matters... and the points that Hal had been making were more than valid as overall points and even proven largely correct through history.. so who gives any shits or wants to be persistent about quasi-irrelevant details.. in regards to our buddy pal, aka Hal - the - man.  Go HAL!!!!!!

In udder words, bitcoin still remains an asymmetric bet at this very point as I type this post and perhaps even a better bet today than it was in 2009 - even though in 2009 the potential for gain in terms of starting with almost no price was greater, so devolving into seemingly nonsense jealousy regarding how Hal might be worshipped too much by the masses (which is also hardly relevant to anything - except to perhaps want to drag down bitcoin's history) does not take away from the point that Hal asserted that BTC was an asymmetric bet, and so far bitcoin has shown itself to continue to be an asymmetric bet, and whether we are further down the path than Hal expected in terms of BTC price appreciation or if it is going to take longer to get to $10 million or whatever other high-side value (or inflation-adjusted or all the world's value - who cares) might not matter so much because the point stands that bitcoin was a very promising asymmetric bet in 2009 when Hal was contemplating ideas around it and bitcoin remains a great asymmetric bet in the present while at the same time, even asymmetric bets are not guaranteed to come true even if someone might point out some specific guidelines in terms of where the thing (referring to BTC price here) may well go.  

If you have not done so already Spaceman_Spiff, you might want to pick up a wee bit of bitcoin,  in case BTC might catch on... and by the way, you might not need to buy very much to get rich as fuck.. that's the nature of an asymmetric bet.. that has been playing out for more than 12.5 years and likely to continue to play out for quite some time into the future... so what is the point of denigrating where bitcoin might be going or what Hal said about it 5 years before he died..and then even with Bitcoin being a asymmetric bet, there have been a whole hell of a lot of people wanting to hoard BTC, so if you can get it with lower prices, you should probably consider ur lil selfie as lucky rather than wanting to denigrate bitcoin's upside potential as if it were not important in terms of capturing the wealth of the whole world or whatever other hyperboles might be made from time to time in order to communicate the idea that bitcoin is likely one of the best investments that anyone can make in these here times and seems to be damned well a part of a BIG ASS wealth transfer that is going on even if diptwats like ur lil selfie seem to want to poo-poo such idea and quibble regarding largely meaningless details.
7413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 08:16:14 PM
By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.


If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

Quote
You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.

This website can guess the linked addresses in a wallet. You enter one address into it, then it guesses the rest. It's run by someone from chainalysis.com, which exchanges and governments use to check where bitcoins come from.

https://www.walletexplorer.com/

This website also guesses linked addresses in wallets, but I don't think big business uses its services.

https://btc.cryptoid.info/btc/

You could import the keys to any addresses they missed into electrum, then move those coins to another wallet. That way you could salvage any anonymous addresses you have left.

I am going to devolve even further... Might be a stretch, but if you are not using a VPN, and you are searching BTC addresses, and you search a bunch together, might there not be a presumption that the person who searched those BTC addresses is the owner of the addresses?  Yes, I am maybe overly paranoid.. but there can be some difficulties in knowing how much privacy we might have if we are not covering up some of our traffic.
7414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 07:49:19 PM





#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 


Just a real man's arm, a real bitcoiner's arm with some stonecold diamond HODLer hands attachted to them.....

Just the ones a mortal guy wants to avoid at all time  Kiss Tongue

Yeah.. exactly!!!!!!

Not going to catch me trying to eat crackers next to those potentially lethal weapons...

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.

I've never had more than 10k BTC, but having dealt with shitcoins in the past, the actual numbers themselves should "feel" the same whether you are transacting 1 BTC or 10 BTC or 100 BTC ... (since in shitcoin terms, I have experienced both receiving and sending 100k of them in their units.) I even had this shitcoin where I had close to 900 million of it (none of it bought, all mined, since it was a CPU mineable coin back then, so I wasted electricity on it maybe.)

Of course, I am not really trying to get into your Opsec issues, but I was likely attempting to get to the point of considering some of the practical matters of what might be considerations with a more than $22 million portfolio.. so I am not really sure how pertinent the number of units would be, and especially if we are devolving into shitcoin talk...

I am not going to argue in terms of whether there would be differing ways of considering these kinds of matters in terms if you are dealing with your own coins or if you were a fiduciary over someone else's coins or if you were merely in a kind of advisory role.. surely there are a variety of considerations, including that if some ideas are presented to a client, there might be some back and forth before figuring out how to handle the matter depending on how much a client might want to engage with the matter.

We might be going a bit far with some of this speculation too, because each of us have acknowledged that there would be differing considerations in the event that the 750 BTC were the total wealth versus taking into account some other wealth that might also be present for such person with 750 BTC that had previously been sitting for 9 years.

I think without sounding presumptuous, the owner decided to move his coins after 9 years regardless of the drop in price, but maybe more so that it appreciated so many millions in the past 9 years, so that any actual value above say $10k is good enough for them. Or above $20k, as that was the previous top in 2017 to 2018-ish. $30k is still $10k higher than $20k.

That seems a bit presumptuous.. to steal your word from you, but sure, there is a scenario in which what you state makes sense... including selling 100 BTC and changing the wallet (address) configuration of the remainder.


Opsec. I lost all my bitcoins when my boat sank ...

Shit happens.

or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.

1 BTC or even below 1 BTC might actually make sense. You can always use a computer program or software ... now we call that a wallet ... to keep track of all of it anyway. I think as long as the value of the BTC and it's potential transaction fee to transfer or move that coin from that address is below, say, for example 1%, then it's ok. Any smaller value might not make as much sense because you would be "wasting" your coins on transaction fees.

Well there could be some folks who are considering moving spending wallets to the lightning network, so there could be some variations in the size of the source of such from time to time replenishing of lightning channels or lightning wallet balances.  And, sure now versus the future, and I could imagine scenarios that there might not be too many thoughts given to fees - even though at this particular time, there could be some motivations to reconfigure balances based on what seems to be quite low onchain fees, relatively speaking.

Moving 100 BTC with a 0.000002 BTC transaction fee is a very good number. Moving 1 BTC while paying 0.0001 BTC in fees, is also not bad, if you were to do that once a year, or even once a month.

Sure.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.

Some people have come onto wealth only to splurge and spend it all. We've all read the stories of lottery winners and even celebrities that made $300 million, only to go bankrupt because they spent it all in a short time without saving any for the future.

If someone did not have $3m before, it would be wise to make it last if that's what they cashed out.

We are referring to someone who has $22 million, and has sat on it for 9 years.. so hard to characterize such person as potentially suddenly coming into wealth, without knowing more details.

I mean, completely changing your lifestyle might not be the best idea; upgrading it a little bit or getting rid of all your debts if you have any is much better.

I cannot disagree with you in terms of whether someone might be inclined to make sudden changes in spending habits or lifestyle or not.  There likely are a considerable number of bitcoiners who are contemplating some of the ways that they might increase their standard of living.. and maybe having some dilemmas with such considerations.. including but for sure not limited to yours truly.


Someone who had 750 BTC 9 years ago, while it is possible he has other wallets or addresses, it's also quite likely that's all he has as then even if he were a miner, or bought DCA before, it was normal to consolidate all those coins into one address because it was easy to do it.

Sure, it is possible, but I am having trouble with the degree of that speculation... you seem to be putting out an outlier scenario rather than a more likely scenario.

Not many people had the foresight 9 years ago to mine a block of 50 BTC, then split them up into 50 different addresses, and do that often. It would have been such a hassle for something worth "cents".

Very few people carry more than a certain amount of cash in their physical wallets these days, or even 9 years ago. I don't know too many people who even had $750 in cash in their wallets. Most have debit cards, or credit cards, checks, apps on their phone, and maybe $100 in cash, in the wallet. Some don't have cash, just cards.

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..
7415  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 07:15:30 PM
By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.


If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.

Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.

Fees are fairly low at the moment.

Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.

It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.

https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/

*edit*

Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/

Quote
You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.

 ...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN

If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in

https://coinb.in/#newTransaction

You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.

https://coinb.in/#about

This is its bitcointalk thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=390046

*edit2*

If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/

Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.

I hate to even say my problem.. but it is different than the one you are describing or suggesting in terms of dealing with dust or even a bunch of transactions that are combined.. but maybe I could just say if there were some combining of addresses on one occasion, and then moving that whole lump together at one point, then there are already two steps there, so it seems that it may be too late to do anything except maybe acknowledge them all as one owner.  I am not really sure if I am currently wanting to attempt to resolve this, if there is even a resolution.
7416  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 07:06:36 PM
My current amusing thought experiment puts liquidity at around 15 million total coins, with the amusing assumption that we will not see 21 million soon, but have mined 99% in a couple of decades, and a few of those millions lost, while the rest are in some form of cold storage.

We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.

In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.

Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.

I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.

My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.

This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.

I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.

Well to be honest your fun thought experiment is still quantifiable, within reach and comprehend-able at least … see what our “scientists” speculating, things worth $10,000 quadrillion  Grin  Grin  Grin

NASA’s Hubble Telescope has obtained images of an asteroid so rich in metals that its worth puts our global economy to shame. Think $10,000 quadrillion ($10,000,000,000,000,000,000), compared to the world’s economy, which was worth about $142 trillion in 2019.

Isn’t this more absurd than what Hal stated?

Mandatory Edit:
Don’t forget to divide this asteroid into 21 million pieces.

Your acceptance of the framing is a bit ridiculous, shahzadafzal.

The economy is not going to expand merely if an asteroid were to land with all those precious metals within grasp..

So we still have the limitations of various values on earth that would need to be accounted for.

Of course, the value of various rare PMs would likely devaluate based on lessening of scarcity, but it would be quite difficult to presume that the entrance of more PMs would expand the pie by very much, if at all.

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.

Sure, at this point, I do not consider my "problem" to be urgent, and I am having some difficulties imagining scenarios in which my "problem" would turn into an urgency.  

Without getting into particulars, my problema is just as factor that I have to keep in mind in terms of certain balances that I would prefer to achieve if I were to approach matters prudently and attempt to engage in "best practices" or to even attempt to refine some of my "best" or "better practices", but there are also certain scenarios in which I may well throw the balances of what is better or best out the window, and just say to my lil selfie: "fuck it".. do what I want and suck up some of the costs of doing what I want rather than resolving the matter through "best" or "better" practices.. in other words, not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Sure, I know that I can present matters in the forum, and sometimes I do and sometimes I consider matters that I might be befuddled to resolve to present, if I conclude that it might be a good topic or helpful to my lil selfie.




#few

Haha, the whatsapp I just sent 🐜

Awesome

Love those daily LFC updates Smiley

Without breaking Opsec too muchie, is LFC your secret sauce - my friend said.. blah blah blah?

nohomo.. with all the little hairs on the arms?  talking in bed about bitcoin..

Sauce 1:  "did I ever tell you that I love bitcoin?"
Sauce 2:  "I love bitcoin, too"
Sauce 1: "have a good HODL sleep"
Sauce 2:   "uie -too-ie hunny bunny, HODL strongie, with those little arm-hairs."
Sauce 1:  "You too - no no homo"
Sauce 2:  MMMMuuuuuaaaaacccchhhh 



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
7417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 06:42:40 PM
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
You hit the nail right on the head I find that supporters of Bitcoin are too quick to believe something just because its saying something positive about Bitcoin. Most predictions that people say are not accurate and have no evidence to back up their prediction other than just a gut feeling. You deserve more merit for shining a light on that mental flaw that the Bitcoin community seems to have.

yeah right...

Nonsense.

There is all kinds of back and forth in the bitcoin community (to the extent that such a thing exists), and sure some ideas are better than others, and Hal had a lot of good ideas, including his back of the napkin 2009 idea of $10million per coin as a ballpark idea of where we might be going if things play out well.. sure, there are aspirations built into that, and anyone worth his weight in salt would appreciate that nothing is certain, and even our pal, Hal, was providing what he considered a better case scenario rather than a certainty.

Sure, there are dumbasses who ascribe probabilities as certainties and when they see a chart, they believe that it is based on certainties.. but when we engage in various dialogues and share ideas, hopefully more and more people learn how to assign probabilities to whatever projections that they make including that our pal, Hal was engaged in such a probabilities endeavor.. so fuck off with the nonsense that he was either describing certainties or that too many folks in the BTC community are assigning too much probability to that kind of projection, even though there seem to be decent chances that we could well end up there (at $10million per coin) either the next cycle or a few cycles down the road or perhaps 20 or 50 years from now.. 

Probability also means that we may well not make it there.. but a lot of us can appreciate the asymmetric bet of bitcoin  and be quite satisfied with even flat BTC performance even if we are thinking about possibilities that it could go much higher, we are also o.k. with flat (or some variation of flat), if that is how the BTC-landia cards end up playing out.... but an asymmetric bet is still an asymmetric bet, so many who merely invested small amounts of value into bitcoin ended up doing quite well based on the asymmetric way that bitcoin has played out and is likely to continue to play out... so you better fucking get some bitcoin (and you even don't need that much) and you may well have a decent hedge in the event that bitcoin ends up being a decently performing UPpity investment.. which it seems to be and there is really no strong evidence or logic in the contrary.. especially in recent times, the bullish case for bitcoin seems to be getting stronger and stronger with the passage of time, Lindy Effect and all that mumbo jumbo that some of you dumbass naysayers and party poops are failing/refusing to appreciate the value of such because you believe that bitcoin folks are too much covered with rosey-eyed glasses (which is near pure baloney to be making such nonsense assertions that is likely based on anecdotal evidence rather than really reflecting the reality of the matter).

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
He does say that if Bitcoin were to become the dominant payment system of the world that the total value of the currency would equal the total value of ALL wealth in the world which is complete horse shit. To me he tries to cover up that quite inaccurate statement by prefacing that its just a thought experiment well even if that thought experiment did materialize and become a reality Bitcoin would not be the equivalent of all the wealth in the world.

So what?

Need to tweak his $10million a bit.. and likely bitcoin is going to be worth more than $10million per coin, not even accounting for dollar deflation..

So sure, maybe his figuring of wealth in the world was not very particularized, because it is going to be much more difficult to have completely nuanced valuations until going back and forth a bit in terms of what kinds of value might gravitate into BTC..

In other words, you seem to be attempting to ascribe Hal as if he were an idiot, and surely no one is really going to be saying that the value of a house is going to completely flow into bitcoin, even if it might have sounded like that is what he was saying.. same thing with a gold bar... there are going to be a lot of aspects of gold that flow into bitcoin, but there will likely still be value in gold, whether industrial, jewelry, and even some storage of value aspect, even if gold might end up going down to $10 per ounce or whatever relative to bitcoin's $100 million or whatever it ends up reaching at various points in its life cycle of gravitating value into it.

Protip: We should not be presuming napkin math to be disingenuine merely because we believe that it ended up being wrong, and it really has not been shown to have been wrong, even if it did not ascribe various nuances correctamente. 

But hey, you Hal the pal naysayers gonna hate.. even hate our hero and buddy Hal the pal.  He was a smart, insightful and very helpful to the BTC space mother-fucker (not literally).

So you better take back all your negative thoughts about hal our pal.... you fucks who are hating on a guy with a lot of good ideas.. and currently ded as we know to be mortals happen to be a legend.. since you have to die to become a legend, no?
7418  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 06:09:06 PM
This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?


As a summer of despair before an autumn/winter of joy. A bit like 2013 probably.

Oh?

I cannot really assert that you have decent odds of being wrong - because such a scenario does not necessarily seem to be any kind of stretch - but still  "memorable"?  You have not really said anything that would cause this particular time to play out as particularly memorable, except to historians.  Does anyone give any shits about bitcoin price dynamics in 2013 anymore or remember hardly anything about it except for us more nerdy types who are hanging on every piece of quasi-obscured evidence?




#few

Had to shrink it down because those hairs are gross...

#justsaying

#nohomo 

Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

One thing is that it took you three posts before you explained what you meant about Hal supposedly being pie in the sky in his prediction, and in the end, you have not even provided any kind of meaningful criticism in terms of Hal being pie in the sky.  His back of the napkin remains pretty decent, and it is not about what people want, it is based on the fact that he gave a decent ballpark idea.. which is good and it remains a decent and applicable amount, especially in the relatively near future whether you account for inflation or not.. and sure with inflation the numbers may likely need to be changed, and surely we do not consider that all of the current world wealth is not an expanding pie.. especially around 12 years later? 

Sure there are ups and downs, even in the world's creation of value.. but probably some assumptions can be made about various ways in which value has increased.. and storage of value has increased.  Furthermore, the value I get from eating an ice cream cone is not really a storage of value, so I doubt that we are talking about things like that.  The value that I get from owning a home and a piece of land may well be the land, and if homes/land is no longer used so much as a storage of value then some of the more efficient storage of value will move into BTC.. but there still will be utility value in the home, but perhaps some of that storage of value aspect would end flowing into bitcoin.. even though it could take 20, 50 or more years to reestablish how people are incentivized regarding value and how they think of value and the fact that there is so much debt based in the various current status quo systems will likely take a long time to sort out and to sort through too.. so no one is going to know exactly how these matters will play out in 2009.. even if they are doing napkin calculations and approximations.. .. so surely I would agree with your reluctance to give god status to such proclamations, but at the same time, there still is a lot of decent starting parameters contained therein without getting all huffy and puffy about it.,. in terms of suggesting that there was little to no value in Hals attempt to provide some kind of ballpark frame to the wealth gravitating into BTC matter.
7419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 05:44:00 PM
Oh gawd, Dabs.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...

Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.

For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.

For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...

Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value?

*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.

Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.


I thinkenings of it this way, if I (personally, me) had 750 BTC in cold storage for 9 years, and I needed to access that today (or yesterday, or any time this year 2021), after seeing its dollar value go fluctuate between $20k up to $60k in the first quarter of 2021 alone, I would probably do something similar.


Oh gawd, Dabs.  You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...

Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.


Cash out 100 BTC, save the remaining 650 BTC and put back into cold storage (or in this case, the owner did something else, perhaps he split it some more into more parts depending on how he thinks it should be managed.)

So yes, many of us are here because the fiat world is devaluing, but at the same time we also know the dollars and the fiats are not disappearing soon.

Considering that the average person can survive on approximately $40k in expenses per year (or less), then $1m ought to last that person at least 30 years, even if conservatively invested in traditional equities/fixed income assets. $3m therefore will be about the same thing for anyone with less than $120k in annual expenses.

Most people will have more than 9 years with that kind of fiat cash dollars, even if they don't invest in anything and just dump it in a cash "savings" account, or spending account.

Fair enough.

The remaining 650 BTC (worth at least $20m USD), I probably will not need myself, as I'm sure the real owner of that address did not need it for 9 years, can be put back into cold storage and not touched for at least another 9 to 10 to 20, maybe to 30 years.

 Seems to be assuming a lot in regards to that 750 BTC (reduced to 650 BTC) was all the BTC and wealth that the person had.

I did not bother tracking where the rest moved though, so I don't know what could have happened to it. The wise thing to try to do is obfuscate the trail using whatever tech there is now, such as CoinJoins like Wasabi or Samourai or putting it into multi-sig, or if you trust an exchange to handle that kind of coin temporarily before sending it back to cold storage.

 Sure no problem with that.

Personally, I would divide that into maybe 65 different addresses of 10 BTC each (or even smaller), whatever I can handle just thinkenings about it, just so I can keep them separate.

Of course 10 BTC per address is more manageable than 650 BTC in one address.. cannot argue with you about that... especially maybe 750 BTC might have only been worth less than $1k or maybe $5k at the most 9 years ago... .. so sure there might not have been much consideration of any kind of need to create separate addresses (or wallets) for those 750 coins 9 years ago... and sure even more than 1BTC per address might draw more attention these days, so there might even be some concern about dividing lower than 10 BTC per address or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.
 

Even if I did not have to use the cash, allowing a budget of at most 10 BTC a year, the stash could last 65 years, at whatever price it is then.

 Hm? that is a strange way of framing the matter, especially since we likely can project that bitcoin is  very likely to have considerable price fluctuations in the next 65 years or so, presuming that anyone who would have 650-750 BTC might want to be projecting 65 years into the future.. sure consider that a high school or college student might have easily acquired that quantity of BTC.. but still seems a weird way to frame thinking about the future in terms of 10 BTC per year... or anything like that kind of framing of the time/value expectation matter.

Of course, if in the next 10 to 20 years, we see that fiat is seriously and miserably failing according to whatever standards we believe in the future, then surely, just HODL onto the BTC and spend as needed. Or don't spend, try to make the $3 million dollars in cash last as long as you can.

If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.
 

Of course, this all depends on what is one's current income and spending numbers. The usual 4% rule and $40k annual expenses are just arbitrary numbers. Some have it higher or lower.

Yes.. we know that 4% is a good starting point, especially when considering a variety of traditional investments, and a presumptively diversified portfolio of investments based on such presumptively traditionally diversified portfolio.  

So, yeah, if we might not all be on the same page regarding the method for accounting an projecting, then starting out with 4% of the portfolio as a safe withdrawal rate and even that every million dollars might bring $40k of annual income, then that could give us some ideas for starting points in terms of the entry point living expenses of normies... So, sure, if the basics are covered, then we might be able to extrapolate from there some levels of wealth or abilities to live extravagantly beyond the basics, too... so of course, we are not approaching the topic from greatly divergent starting points, but still seems that there might be a considerable amount of errors in trying to ascribe too many details regarding how to manage particulars, but sure let's say that the current value of the portfolio is 750 BTC which is currently over $22 million then we could very well attribute $40k x 22 = $880k of annual income at current values to such an investment portfolio, which would thereby generate around $73k of income per month.

Of course, if someone does not feel that they need that level of income, and lives off of a much lower quantity of income, then the remainder would presumably stay in BTC, so sure there are a lot of ways to project how much income to draw right now from the investment portfolio and whether that might be sustainable.  Of course, I personally have a preference for the 208-week moving average, so I personally would consider the amount that I have and the limits that I would be willing to withdraw in a different framework... so let me just put it out there in this context.  The 208-week moving average is currently at $13,600, so for the purposes of withdrawal and withdrawal limits, I would consider the value of 750 BTC to be at $10.2, and I personally consider a 12% per year withdrawal rate to be acceptable, so long as the current BTC price is at least 12% higher than the current 208-week moving average price, which it currently is above $15,232 (1.12 x $13,600)... So I would feel ok. to withdraw $1.224 million per year or a $102k per month (which actually causes higher withdrawal numbers which could be a mistake if such 12% per year from the 208-week moving average is not sustainable).

I guess my point is that there are a lot of ways to consider the matter, and even to consider if any of us is even coming close to his/her withdraw limits or if we might be living within the boundary of such withdraw limits in the even that we have actually entered into such a period in which we are withdrawing portions of our BTC and attempting to make such withdraws sustainable within the timeline that we would like to project our BTC cashenings to be sustainable.
7420  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 04:49:14 PM
now that I was very close it just felt like a bullet in the back of the head (no panic though). Also, it was an unexpected move going off price history, and the thought that this could be a prolonged bear market after such a small move up is disheartening.

That's why you were acting like such a whiney little biatch (or would it be whiney little girl? searing/brad... can you chime in?  hahahahaha)... and I am glad that you are coming off as a weeeeeeeeeee bit less whiney in recent times  (emphasis on "weeeeeee").

#nohomo.

I think that the punchline remains that we remain in a pretty damned decent place whoever is in this BTC thingie-ma-jiggie for the long term, whether we go UPpity or DOWNity from here...

Of course, UPpity would be preferred, but we should know that king daddy gives few shits about what we would be preferred so we have had nearly 2 months to get our bearings to prepare our lil selfies both psychologically and financially for either price direction... so are we prepared, or no?  Still ONLY prepared for UP?  You might suffer more... I am not saying that I know shit about which way the BTC price is going to go, and when I am presuming that we are STILL in a bull market, I am presuming that the odds for UP are greater than the odds for down (even if ONLY slight), but sure that does not mean that in the short term we may well experience some more suffering.. whether our own suffering or the suffering of others, but our own preparations should help us to consider the possibility for either direction.. especially in the short term --- still preferring UP, but whatever, it's not like I can do much of anything, except maybe figure out price points that I might be ready, willing and able to buy more in the event that we get down before up.


It's not like I need the money right now….{snip}

I guess that's why this dump got to me honestly. Unlike 2014, 2018, {snip} I wasn't close enough to my dreams and now that I was very close it just felt like a bullet in the back of the head (no panic though). Also, it was an unexpected move going off price history, and the thought that this could be a prolonged bear market after such a small move up is disheartening. I'm still hoping that this is a correction (mini bear market) in the longer bull supercycle as well, but I'm not seeing much bullish price action, though on-chain seems to be showing some good signs. Like others, I'm thinking towards the end of this year we should see something, but if we don't by then, well, that ain't a good sign.

Mostly similar to myself.

Also the major deviation from S2F is concerning.

Oh look, my 18000th post. What a sad bastard Grin

Oh gosh..  I know that we are a supposed to be further than usual from the historical stock to flow deviation, and so don't you believe that some bears and FUD spreaders are going to want you to consider all of your BTC price models are broken... for sure.. for sure.. the need for greater extremes are necessary to cause peeps to lose confidence and to sell their coins...

Sell, sell, sell...

weeeeeeeeeeeee




(of course, I am engaging in a parody, and rubbing it in a weeeee bit)


Just consider how much excitement the beartwats and fud spreaders are going to feel if they were either able to start the bear season early (yeah 6 months or more early) or to delay the bull run by another 6 months, 9 months or even 12 months... wouldn't that be great for them? Don't they have a lot of incentives for trying to accomplish such?  Are they going to be successful or not?  what are the odds?  We had seen them fail with a lot of egg on their face in previous times.  What are the odds that they are going to fare better this time?  Sure there is a chance, but our macro circumstances is not exactly playing in their favor?  So we will see.  We will see.  Fuck those twats.....  And if they are successful, do we still get a bull run a bit further down the road in this particular cycle (even if delayed a weeeee bit?), or do we have to wait 3-4 years before king daddy is able to go up?  or does that break bitcoin completely?   I am thinking that the beartwats are having to spend a lot of resources to keep king daddy in its current around 50% correction range.. and even with that current scenario, it is not even an absolutely and clearly bad spot for us... fuck stock to flow.. stock to flow can suck a bag of dicks.. and just adjust the curve a wee bit, and we are back in business with stock to flow 2.0... so who cares.. king daddy is going to win, even if we are all dead by the time we are richie as fuck... hahahaha... o..k..  I got carried away.. yes.. there could be a delay and stock to flow might have to get shifted on its curve, but what you gonna do with sound money versus not sound money, are there any actual competitors?  Realistically?

Even if we consider the various beartwat wet dream scenarios, we should not be losing our faith in bitcoin, and we have already won.. seems to me.. but whatever, are they going to get us down to the 104-week moving average (which is about $20k currently) or down to the 208-week moving average which is about $13,600... currently... I have my doubts about getting down to either one of those.. but whatever, whatever.. roll with the punches, no?  We are good, no?... You really believe that there is even any kind of reasonable and realistic expectation of getting an 85% correction out of this particular correction?  That would put us around $10k.. and again just seems like a pie in the sky wet dream, but I am willing to HODL through such nonsense if it were to occur (and buy if I were to have much if any money left at that point.. there still some cashflow that I have)... anyhow, fuck those twats.. we are not in a bad place.. and gotta get below $25k first.. and sure.. been testing $30k several times, and it could end up breaking like $6k broke in late 2018.. but this is not late 2018... so having my doubts.. yeah it could happen.. but cross that bridge when we get there (that is if we get there).  Did I say fuck those beartwat, FUDspreader, bitcoin naysayers, yet?
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