Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714926629]

1714926629

[Dabs]

A Bitcoin address just did a transaction after being inactive for 9 years.
TX: https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/a922ec6d34e1a36cc935c7e9b37b5d8be826e11fb299a25d83285cc8b484e965

Moved 740BTC after 9 years!

Satoshi, was that you? 🤔

What's interesting are a couple of things:

Total Output
739.99999747 BTC
Fees
0.00000253 BTC

He used a "subtract fee from amount" thing, which leads me to believe he used Bitcoin Core wallet.

And, the fee is 8 cents to move a few million dollars.

He probably cashed out 100 of that (about $3.2 million dollars), and the rest goes into cold storage or into a native segwit address.

If he HODLs that for another 9 years, he can expect to have at least double to triple worth of that or more. The $3m should let him live off it for that amount of time or longer (possibly for at least 30 years even if that amount is never invested.) / depending on his expenses.

*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.

[JayJuanGee]

I have all my life's money on BTC and ETH but I am still worried that it may retest somewhere to $20k before going back to $65k.

I could understand why someone who is young might have all of their investment in crypto currencies, and sure, I can hardly give anything  shits about Ethereum in terms of some belief that some folks might have to keep some value into that.

I will admit that I frequently have expressed that there may well be some benefit in concentrating your investment until it reaches a certain value before you start to diversify. I am just not sure how much that might be, because the amount of value is going to vary from person to person in terms of wanting to at least hedge a bit so that you do no feel so emotional about the peaks and troughs in BTC prices.  I doubt we need to talk about ethereum here, since it just is likely to devolve into shitcoin talk...

Anyhow, let's say that you are able to make it through one or two bitcoin bubbles, then there might be a plan at some point to pull some value out of bitcoin and to put it into other assets - and no I am not talking about shitcoins because they are all largely correlated to bitcoin even though you may well get some pumps in them that are higher than bitcoin from time to time... when most people that know anything about even attempting diversification, there are thoughts about diversifying into asset classes that tend to have qualities to cause them to react differently to various long term market pressures that might pass through time. Of course, in the shorter term a lot of them may seem to be very correlated based on how much the dollar (and other fiats) are being manipulated, especially in recent times.

One way of diversifying is to merely play bitcoin and the dollar (and sure some other stable currencies - even though they are not exactly backed by the full faith and credit of the US Govt might be used as a kind of dollar proxy), so that you would be trying to at least off-set some of your emotions (and financial solidness) of the ups and downs by trying to put some value in the dollar during the times that bitcoin is going up and then using those dollars to buy back BTC when the price is going down.. so then that might be a way to kind of attempt to get some of the advantages of diversifications - even though it might be a more simplistic protection when you are ONLY playing with two asset classes.

So let's just say that you are a fairly young whipper snapper, and you ONLY have around $500-ish per month that you are even able to invest into bitcoin, and maybe after getting through a full 4 year bitcoin cycle, you might be able to start to consider some level of diversification into other assets, whether it be property, PMs, equities (like stocks), and/or bonds but gosh I do have some troubles considering how to go about this exactly.  Part of the reason that I have quite a bit of diversification into various stock index funds and govt bonds and fix bonds happens to be that I had a 401k that had pretty decent incentives in terms of getting a 100% matching funds for the first 5% (of my then income) that I put in, and then for the next 10% or so, I would at least be able to received tax deferral on that... so the first 5% does become almost a no brainer investment to receive 100% matching - which is hard to argue with in terms of being a good return - even if in the longer term bitcoin is likely to outperform, even that... but still hard to turn your back on a 100% matching funds, and it does cause some diversification, and surely on a personal level I had not even been presented with such a dilemma regarding whether it would be better to put my matching funds money into BTC or to get the matching funds because I had invested in mine before I even had started investing into BTC.  

Accordingly, these days investors who have exposure to 401k matching funds are faced with such a dilemma about the matching funds, and I personally would suggest matching up to the matching amount, but I am not so enthusiastic about investing soley based on tax deferred status of additional amounts whether 401ks or other investments that could be taxed deferred, and another thing that I attempt to suggest is to invest at least 10% of your cashflow.. and surely some income earning people can afford to go higher, and i would argue that the higher your income the higher percentage that you can afford to invest.. which probably anything else could go into bitcoin.. and so then the question becomes at one point of BTC portfolio accumulation would be best to achieve before starting to diversify... of course, if you do not have a 401k, then sure, you could end up putting everything into BTC.. (again fuck ethereum)....  

Now, if we look at the past 4 years of investing into bitcoin at $500 per month, we see that $24k would have been invested, and our portfolio would currently be valued at $128k (which is about a 4.3x return on our investing capital), so I would consider the reaching of those kinds of numbers as justification for diversifying, even though I do have some issues about diversifying on a bitcoin price dip, which we are now in (yes, we can call a 56% price correction and currently floating in a 40%-50% correction arena as a decently significant BTC price dip).  ...

So perhaps there could be some criteria in terms of when to start to consider diversifying, and perhaps going through a whole cycle and reaching a value of $100k plus could justify the beginning of some diversification. and for sure, anyone who might be working with smaller investment levels is going to take longer to reach something like a $100k value within their BTC portfolio... and surely also some people might have $2million or so as their fuck you entry level goal, but some folks might be o.k with smaller amounts and others feel as if they need larger amounts, which are all reasonable considerations in terms of needs for all BTC HODLer/accumulator/investors to be considering various personally tailorized particulars of how to frame their goals - and even once they get close to reaching their goals, the macro-economic circumstances may have changed in such a way that they might consider it prudent to change their goals based on circumstances that seem to have developed in the 10 years to 20 years that have passed since they initially created some of their target goals.

[thewaterloggers]

Sorry for the off topic boys



@CRYPTO_SNIPERep
📈 This is our main probability & bullish outcome for #Bitcoin  #BTC  !
A bounce towards $50,000 is imminent 🚀

✔️ RSI is trying to breach this longer term trendline!
✔️ 3D MACD green for the first time in 115 days.

It's Time! 😈
https://twitter.com/crypto_sniperep/status/1414693796898656269?s=21

This ain't no off topic bro. I also think this is the "bottom zone" even if waiting for a hash ribbons buy signal for confirmation to enter a long-term leverage long position.
Otherwise hodling, as not dumb enough to sell at a 50% discount fortunately. Not ruling out $20-25K capitulation buy opportunity either though.
So many traders of price and indicators are panicking right now. Everyone else trading time is just waiting to buy more 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

I think this current drop is a headfake.  Big move coming, and I am betting to the upside.

 

Or we slideways for months.. I dunno. But I still think the top one.

Dump and headache is temporary if we regularly monitor the candles but holding btc for long will surely bring joy and happiness.Stay strong all the holders summer is not so long and winter is coming.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

But the catch is they [the fed] still don't know how to do it and they want to add some "features" like digital currency will expire after certain time if not used.. WTF.

Yes.. that is not exactly solving any kind of "sound money" problema..

sound money does not expire upon the dictates of some random "authority"... even though we can recognize and appreciate that expiring monedas does increase the sentiments (and perhaps even some actual hardness) of "scarcity"... .those manipulative and disingenuine fucktwats.   

Charts - meh
Trends - meh

I doubt that this thread, or even our current bitcoin related discussions can be boiled down to ONLY talking about charts and trends - because, think about it.. charts and trends are largely the same thing.. or subcomponents of each other, if we were to try to plot them on a venn diagram.

much more to our little fiend, bitcoin, than merely talking about trends and charts.

Also, consider the matter of whether or not bitcoin is in the midst of a fairly large number of attacks, and the fact that bitcoin could be in the middle of a war, even if some folks want you to consider that we are ONLY in the midst of a "trend" in which bitcoin gravitates towards its "inevitable price of zero.".... hahahahahaha

Should be very difficult to be proclaiming "meh" when we seem to be well in the midst of the largest quasi-peaceful wealth transfer that man has ever experienced (am I exaggerating?  not even I (aka yours truly) knows the answer to this question because it can be quite difficult to know or even to appreciate some paradigm-shifting thingie-ma-jiggie while in the midst of it).

[fillippone]

Who cares about US dollar inflation

When

Not yet merit inflation, that a good thing 

Theymos went brrr on merits.
This merits QE hasn’t distorted the market yet, but I guess the effect will trickle down on merit economy in the nex t few weeks.
Winners newbies.
Losers old account who patiently raked up scarce merits in the last two years.

I can live with that. Whatever is good for the forum, is good for me.

[Dabs]

...even if some folks want you to consider that we are ONLY in the midst of a "trend" in which bitcoin gravitates towards its "inevitable price of zero.".... hahahahahaha

The question now, since nothing is forever, will this be one of the following:

1. not in 100 years? (one hundred)
2. not in 1000 years? (one thousand)
3. not in 10k years or longer?

In any case, we are all dead before bitcoin ever reaches zero.

Some people think the end of the last mined bitcoin, by base reward, would be the end, around the year 2140. But we will see a full decade or earlier if that will be the case or not, perhaps even by the middle of this century, as transaction fees approach or exceed the base reward per block mined.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Hello WO bros




wen moon?

Soon^tm


Ten paciencia mujer...!!!!!. 

always loved that way of expressing the patience idea.

Attention seeking weirdo by the looks of it

For sure it can be weird when some people are out there purposefully spreading bullshit and making jokes, and then at some point the joke has traction.

reminds me of someone named Elon...

whatever, we do not need to talk about that child, even though he happens to have a lot of money, too.. .there are other folks who fit a similar kind of category in having a decently large following, so people hang onto their every pronouncement and give few shits regarding whether there happens to be any truth to the claim, but instead consider how others are going to react (which surely is not something to ignore in terms of a factor to consider).

[Paashaas]

Good morning wo.

So my buddies at Apple finally sold enough iPhones to buy some btc . Nice

Apple bitcoin purchase is fake news.

Rumour originated from @AltcoinGordon on 9th July.

https://twitter.com/altcoingordon/status/1413587993881894913?s=21
https://twitter.com/altcoingordon/status/1414122514981265409?s=21

So it was fake..this is exactly why i'm not that active anymore there is to much bullshit going on these days.

Currently working as a volunteer building a summer camp for kids which is a nice distraction clearing my mind doing other stuff besides reading Bitcoin FUD.

While being on retirement mode doesn't mean turning fat waching tv all day long, although this the first time in my life as a volunteer. lol

Getting my 2e vaccine at the end of this month than somewhere in August/September vacation to Greece ore what is available at that time.

[xhomerx10]

By the same token, just because a person has covid when they die, doesn't mean they died of covid.  It's portrayed in quite the opposite manner though; it IS a covid related death even though they may have died due to taking a shower.

That's a pervasive conspiracy theory but not really true in most cases. IIRC some states (Oregon?) at one point didn't separate deaths "from COVID-19" and "with COVID-19" but the discrepancy is minimal even if you extrapolated it to the whole country. Your own assertion that 10% of people tested positive combined with normal annual death rate (below 1%) shows that this would barely make a dent in the 600k number.

Okay, I realize people are dying with covid but excess deaths on a 5 year average which doesn't take into account shifting age demographics or increasing population doesn't show us anything that would help to answer the question I posed.  We know that around 600,000 people in the US have died while either confirmed positive with covid or considered a presumptive covid case so far - I am not questioning that.  I'm not denying that covid is real or bad.  My question was, how many lost years of life does that represent as compared to lost years of life due to the negative vaccine side effects on the entire population of earth + booster shots for the rest of our lives.  After all, we're targeting 100% vaccination while only about 10% of the US population has tested positive for covid-19 and the mRNA technology is new and still experimental.

Death rates are quite stable year to year except for events like swine flue and now COVID-19. CDC data on this is quite extensive so if you can find something there to support your hypothesis please share. I don't really see anything like that. Even if you take VAERS numbers as vaccine-caused deaths (gross exaggeration) it's still quite obvious that the vaccine dramatically (~ ten-fold) reduces the risk of death or complications from COVID-19 and that is true among all age groups. Why would anyone not take a lower chance of death over a higher chance is quite puzzling but that's the funky times we live in.

 The graph you showed us doesnt address the death rate.  It addresses 'excess' deaths by using the previous 5 year average and subtracting it from the current number of deaths.  On top of that, it divides the 'excess' deaths by the previous 5 years averaged deaths which amplifies the value even further and displays it as a percentage.
 When you consider an increasing population, if the death rate stays constant, you will have more deaths year over year anyway.  You amplify that difference by subtracting the previous 5 year average which will be lower because the population was lower and call it 'excess deaths'.  Now you take that number and divide it by the previous 5 year average deaths which again is lower because population was lower and you get an exaggerated value which is barely passible as a valid result.  It also captures the heatwave deaths from 2020 which were an anomaly compared to the average of the previous 5 years (though there was a heatwave in 2016).  These are the statistics that lie; the ones 4 out of 5 of our parents warned us about 90% of the time.  It's a crude measurement which is an indication that there might be something happening which warrants an investigation.  
 How do we explain the elderly group dipping into negative territory in early 2021?  I've already said that there are more elderly as a percentage of population and the population in 2020 was higher than the previous years as well.  Disregarding covid, we should see excess deaths in that period as well but we dont.  Does this mean the vaccines prolonged life beyond even pre-covid life expectations?  Have we found the Fountain of Youth in the form of an mRNA vaccine?  Maybe it means that spike in November we attribute to covid took out those who would have died 3 to 6 months later of something other than covid anyway but that's speculation and probably not something we would base our covid response on.

 It probably goes without saying but I think we've overreacted to the covid pandemic.  I'm sick of the travel bans and lockdowns, I'm appalled at the economic devastation we've caused and I resent being essentially jailed for the last 18 months only being allowed day parole to attend to my essential businesses' needs while carrying a special letter in case I get stopped outside of my curfew or standing outside in endless lines 6 feet apart yet still wearing a mask waiting to shop for basic needs.  Remember when the news of the pandemic first broke and people all over the world rushed to the stores to buy all the food they could and they eventually had to limit the sale of sanitizer and paper products to one per customer?  I wish we would periodically adjust our covid response as well.  I think we've all seen one too many zombie apocalypse movies... our political leaders included.

 I just want to add some weight to my argument with factual information rather than speculation.  Now this is Canadian information and I can't say for sure that it translates to other countries but I would bet money that it does.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210712/dq210712b-eng.htm

 "While we sometimes observe excess mortality that is consistent with the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, data reveal that indirect consequences of the pandemic are also having a significant impact on the number of excess deaths in Canada, particularly among younger Canadians. Based on the newly updated provisional dataset released today from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, from the end of March 2020 to the beginning of April 2021, an estimated 62,203 deaths were reported among Canadians aged 0 to 64. This represents 5,535 more deaths than expected were there no pandemic, after accounting for changes in the population such as aging. Over the same period, 1,380 COVID-19 deaths have been attributed to the same age group (those younger than 65), suggesting that the excess mortality is, in large part, related to other factors such as increases in the number deaths attributed to causes associated with substance use and misuse, including unintentional (accidental) poisonings and diseases and conditions related to alcohol consumption."


 TL;DR - 75% of the excess deaths in the 0-64 age group in Canada were NOT attributed to covid-19.

 

[Paashaas]

The BTC capacity in lightning is growing at a blistering rate!

https://twitter.com/VetleLunde/status/1414935599321124864

[Paashaas]

Grayscale Bitcoin trust adds BNY Mellon as service provider, eyeing ETF approval.

Asset manager Grayscale announced today that it has selected BNY Mellon as the asset servicing provider for its flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). BNY Mellon will provide GBTC with fund accounting and administration starting October 1, 2021, and facilitate the trust’s future intention to become an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

(Oh well, there is some non-FUD news after all.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Who cares about US dollar inflation

When

Not yet merit inflation, that a good thing 

Yeah, but you know that bitcoin value is not ONLY a factor of dollar inflation.

That is some bullshit that bitcoin naysayers like to say in order to distract from aspects of the importance of bitcoin's ongoing beating up of the dollar.

The dollar did not deflate by 50x in the past 4 years, even though if we look at our current bitcoin price of approximately $32.5k, as I type, we see that bitcoin is 50x up.. in 4 years.

Sure the dollar is fucked up and maybe there was 5% per year deflation prior to 2020, but in the past year there probably is closer in the range of 10% to 20% and sure it could get worse or it might plateau somewhere in the ballpark of 10% to 20% of lost value per year based on irresponsible and ongoing (and seems like never going to stop) money printing.

So, yeah, maybe the ongoing dumbass policies that are causing loss of value in the dollar that goes from 5% per year to 20% per year is going to cause some measuring in the BTC price appreciation, yet a large number of us longer term bitcoiners (who seem to be studying the topic and somewhat appreciating some of what is going on in this process) likely still can see that if the dollar is going to end up going down between 5% and 20% then bitcoin is going to likely have to go up at least the same, and probably more (even accounting for UPs and DOWNs in the dippening and cyclening processes that bitcoin goes through). 

So let's say that either bitcoin is going to go up again and reach another ATH above $64,895 or there is another possibility that the bear cycle hit us a wee bit earlier than expected and we end up suffering through an extended DOWNity period from here.  Even if we account for various UPs and DOWNs from here, we are still likely going to be seeing BTC prices appreciating way the hell faster than the dollar might either be able to retain value or to be able to stave off its likely inevitable losing of value.

And, not only are we likely going to continue to see Bitcoin way the hell out performing the dollar, it is likely to way the hell outperform any of the other dollar related asset bubbles, whether we are referring to stocks and property values or we are referring to various PMs that also seem to suffer from similar kinds of dollar related manipulated mechanisms - whether papering them or just the fact that they are not as good at verifiability since we know that those of us with any kind of wherewithal can figure out that we are capable to immediately demand possession of our lil fiend, aka bitcoin.  Try that with a million dollars worth of physical gold or your dumbass Apple (or Tesla) stocks... Sure, you can demand possession of your house or your real estate, but that is still suffering from a lot of the artificial inflation that causes normies (and even BIG businesses) to use realestate and housing as storage of value (however inefficient that mechanism seems to be).

[Syke]

Warning to my US-based WO family. The IRS is opening *criminal* investigations to any business that has ever accepted bitcoin as a payment method. If an IRS agent contacts you, say nothing, get a lawyer.

[JayJuanGee]

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Hopefully with a favorable end.

I'm sure of that. The only issue is HOW LONG? I'm getting a bit tired... but she will do as she will do.

Hm?  means that you are considering a kind of bullish fake out going on in bitcoinlandia, currently?

A Bitcoin address just did a transaction after being inactive for 9 years.
TX: https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/a922ec6d34e1a36cc935c7e9b37b5d8be826e11fb299a25d83285cc8b484e965

Moved 740BTC after 9 years!

Satoshi, was that you? 🤔

What's interesting are a couple of things:

Total Output
739.99999747 BTC
Fees
0.00000253 BTC

He used a "subtract fee from amount" thing, which leads me to believe he used Bitcoin Core wallet.

And, the fee is 8 cents to move a few million dollars.

He probably cashed out 100 of that (about $3.2 million dollars), and the rest goes into cold storage or into a native segwit address.

If he HODLs that for another 9 years, he can expect to have at least double to triple worth of that or more. The $3m should let him live off it for that amount of time or longer (possibly for at least 30 years even if that amount is never invested.) / depending on his expenses.

Oh gawd, Dabs.   

My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...

Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.

For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.

For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...

Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value? Sure, I am not one of those who devolve into 1 btc = 1 btc, when comes off as extreme on the other end, because no matter what we need to be attempting to peg our BTC value to something and if we lose confidence in pegging BTC value to the dollar, then we should not devolve into meaningless statements of pegging BTC to itself, and even pegging in a meaningful serving size of hookers, lambos, and blow would make more sense than either pegging bitcoin's value to itself or the nonsense that you seem to be devolving into in terms of suggesting that we should attempt to make long term assessments in regards to the dollar retaining its value or that we should peg our BTC prudence in terms of making lump sum cashening outenings of our BTC in order to speculating on having some kind of dollar security of some sort.

*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.

Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.