For sure, if you think about it (and yeah of course, if you believe the official story), a guy might spend a lot of time building and accumulating his BTC portfolio, and then reach some pretty decent goals in terms of BTC quantity.. but then get some kind of over invested and emotional and really stupid thinking about how far the BTC price is going to correct and consider the solution to sell and buy back later.. and holy shit that is some fucked up thinking and even if I say that it is difficult to believe, each of us can imagine scenarios in which we get over invested.. and even run out of money because we buy the dip but the BTC price seems to continue to dip... when at that point, the solution should be to HODL rather than SODL.. but for some reason some of us might start to feel that we can get ahead of this... and we emotionally delude our lil selfies into the wrong (but seeming right at the time) attempt to time the market and to "see where its going" and it does not go there.


Don't get too cocky or overly self-confident, ivomm - even though I have decent confidence too, that a lot of this whole situation is going to work out favorably for those of us who are either BTC accumulators or just largely HODLing through most of this... and of course, I still have standing BTC buy orders below $20k that for sure I would prefer NOT to even get close to using any of those buy orders at or near $25k.... so sure, take advantage of down... and surely I would prefer less down even though buy orders will continue to fill for quite a while... but I also hate the feeling of running out of money, too... if there are times that I keep buying and the BTC price even starts to get close to my lower buy orders, I really prefer NOT to be there or to go there, if possible.


I surely have trouble attributing one entity (or individual) to those kinds of large wallets (instead of exchanges or something like that)..so I don't know how to figure out how to ascribe identity to such large wallets - i must have had more than 1,000 BTC addresses in my years of bitcoin experiences, and most of my BTC addresses do not have large quantities of BTC... but maybe some coins that I hold on exchanges are pooled with other coins... and I am not even saying that it is prudent to be dividing up 0.21 BTC in too many ways, either.

By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.

Member back in the day when a few BTC was not a lot.. and maybe address sizes might have the "not a lot" quantities? and now there might be concerns about having address sizes that might contain more than 0.21BTC.. Member that?

hahahaha

3x higher than LFC's one year ago "optimism"... who should be complaining about "ONLY" 3x higher than the optimistic prediction of BTC prices a year ago?  First world problemas for sure, no?


I think that is referred to as "filthy rich"

I am not going to begrudge you or judge you in that regard - even though I can still proclaim that you seem to be getting everything that you want.. even if it might feel as if it is NOT coming fast enough... (not all of us have the fortune of justin bieber to be banging hookers when in our prime youth of 16 or 17, so sure the parts do not work as well when in our 30s, 40s or 50s, but we can still hire someone to wipe our butts.. some consolation in that, no?)

So you are proclaiming "down before up"?

I know that peeps like to get caught up on various human events such as calendar months or seasons of the year, and I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about those kinds of things, so in that regard, there are likely going to be more important factors to consider, for example whether shitcoin purgenings are happening or if they affect king daddy in one direction or another.. and sure, I am not opposed to ideas of triangles and considering if there has been enough consolidation in which a break out might seem more and more likely.. but I doubt that king daddy needs such triangles, to the extent that they can be reasonably drawn, to run their courses.


I was going to suggest that you explain ur lil selfie a wee bit better Spaceman_Spiff, and if you are concluding that Hal was wrong merely based on his failure to account for inflation, and you are so much smarter because you believe that inflation is a BIG factor in terms of what causes BTC prices to inflate, then you seem to be caught up in some narrow considerations.

From what I understand of Hal's projection is that he was considering various ways that value is stored, and if BTC is more efficient and effective as a storage mechanism, then that value would gravitate into bitcoin.   Sure, it could take several decades for such gravitation to play out, but I doubt that he was either missing inflation or failing to consider a variety of value storage mechanisms that could be replaced by BTC..,. and for sure, does not mean that he is correct or precise (or even any kind of god) to have had been engaging in such a seemingly back of the napkin kind of value storage calculation in order to approximate a kind of meaningful BTC price projection based on then dollar values.

Of course, if the dollar inflates away its own value, then BTC will end up having to be worth way more, but we could still attempt to measure in 2010-ish terms and still come to some kind of similar number (accounting for inflation).. so it seems a bit too pretentious to be attributing too much flaw to Hal's approximate calculation merely because dollar inflation (or it's projected exponential losses in value) has become way more apparent than it may have been at the time of Hal's back of the napkin calculations in 2010-ish.

Likely many of us are here and actively participating in this thread because we are willing to relate to the perspectives of others regarding bitcoin's price performance and whether it might have some UPpity future potential... while appreciating that there are ongoing DOWNity pressures happening at the same time.

And, even though there is a bit of rare occasions when the bears get fucking reckt, it feels so good to see those DOWNity pressures get reversed and even when the DOWNity bets keep getting made while the BTC price is going up.

A couple of things are going on, and we should be attempting to appreciate that the down days way the hell out number the up days, and if you want to profit from bitcoin, you are usually going to be way the hell better off by staying into bitcoin because the overall trend has been UPpity and there is no real and significant evidence to establish that the overall trend is going to continue to be UPpity.. even though the down days still likely outnumber the UP days.. .and you better be "in" when the UP days happen because they can come at times that are unexpected.. and surely we have witnessed that plenty of times.. tends to be several times every year, and feels so good during those periods.

I suppose that if things were rosey and great in the ballpark of my lowball BTC price expectations of 6% per year, our current BTC price and starting at $750 in 2013 would ONLY be around $1,200 currently, so I am not complaining at all.  

Start price =   750               
BTC annual %price appreciation:
                                6%                  30%                     50%                75%                100%                150%

2013                          $750                   $750                $750                $750                 $750                 $750
2014                     $795                   $975                 $1,125                $1,313                $1,500                $1,875
2015                     $843                $1,268                $1,688                $2,297                $3,000                $4,688
2016                   $893             $1,648                $2,531                $4,020                $6,000                $11,719
2017                   $947             $2,142                $3,797                $7,034                $12,000                $29,297
2018                   $1,004             $2,785                $5,695                $12,310                $24,000                $73,242
2019                   $1,064             $3,620                $8,543                $21,542                $48,000                $183,105
2020                   $1,128             $4,706                $12,814                $37,699                $96,000                $457,764
2021                   $1,195             $6,118                $19,222                $65,973                $192,000                $1,144,409
2022                   $1,267             $7,953                $28,833                $115,453                $384,000                $2,861,023
2023                   $1,343             $10,339                $43,249                $202,042                $768,000                $7,152,557
2024                   $1,424             $13,441                $64,873                $353,574                $1,536,000                $17,881,393
2025                   $1,509             $17,474                $97,310                $618,754                $3,072,000                $44,703,484
2026                   $1,600             $22,716                $145,965                $1,082,819                $6,144,000                $111,758,709
2027                   $1,696             $29,530                $218,947                $1,894,933                $12,288,000                $279,396,772

Look at the above table** with a variety of projected BTC price expectations, and maybe currently we might be in the ballpark of 50% to 75% per year BTC price appreciation from a 2013 starting price of $750, and sure some peeps would prefer that we were to be in a 100% to 150% per year price appreciation, and from my perspective that seems to be asking too much too quickly of our saviour king daddy, because we have already been in a very good position to be seemingly exceeding 50% per year (and perhaps closer to 75% per year when using the 8 years of numbers of this chart)...

Of course, there is some arbitrariness in how my projections play out in terms of my having had somewhat randomly creating a starting point price of $750 in 2013 ... but still I have a hard time complaining in the event that we are anywhere in the 30%, 50% or 75% per year BTC price appreciation arena... Yeah in bitcoin we tend to have UPs and downs in our price performance, but overall the BTC price appreciation per year on average has been continuing to do quite well in the whole scheme of things and there seems to be little to no reason to conclude that we might not continue to experience decently onward and upwards BTC price appreciation, even if such per year price appreciation rates might slow down to a lower rate per year.

**I admit that I need to figure out how to do tables moar better... rather than manually plotting them out.. well, I cut and pasted this one from Excel and attempted to someone format it manually.

Soon^tm

maybe a bit longer than two weeks, but soon enuff.... in the whole scheme of things.

Just think about how we were lingering in the sub 4 digits for nearly 3 years... talking about 2014, 2015 and 2016...

who would have thunk that stocking up on a few lilly fiends would put us in a more than 30x profit position in less than 7 years (and that is assuming buying at $999)...

Sure, we knew that it was within the realms of possibilities, but holy shit.. a nation state (talking about El Salvador) is making all of its businesses accept bitcoin, and if any BIGGER international businesses are in El Salvador, they will have to consider whether they are going to accept bitcoin or leave the country... sure the rebellious of them will just accept bitcoin and convert to dollars, but whatever, it is a great situation to witnesses - even if from a distance as a mere HODLer of our lil fiend.  watch them squirm.. as you are sitting quite pretty with some lil fiends in your wallet and some of those squirmers are pure no coiners considering how to catch up to some HODLers who are merely holding a few wee coins.. that may have cost a few thousand dollars a mere 7 years ago... Think about some of the folks who got 21 coins in the sub $300 price range.. (which was easy peasy for the vast majority of 2015) that's "only" a $6,300 investment to get 21 coins, but now millionnaires are scrambling and trying to figure out how to get that their grubby lil paws on that quantity of coins (21-ish).. good luck with that, sub millionnaires.. gonna take some time to get to 21 coins plus, if you can.

How's the range rover, though?


hahahahahahaha

Bitcoin has been berry berry good to me...

hahahahahaha

Yep.

confirmed.


For sure, I did not want to consider your statement as bearish because like you said, you were referring to a number that is pretty highly likely to never be seen again.. I am going to never say never (so that probably makes me somewhat more bearish than you, relatively speaking because I am willing to accept and entertain the idea, even though it has a pretty damned low number), even though we can appreciate that the odds of Vegetta remain pretty damned low and likely so low that we need not be giving them any kind of airplay.... but of course, also like you said, there are a lot of peeps who actually assign way higher likelihood to such a number than it deserves..



That's how I voted.. even though I believe that $46k is the number that we are looking for, as I already mentioned.

We are so damned close to hitting $28,600 (within striking distance as a matter of percentage) that I am not going to rest with any kind of calmness in terms of $46k being in the bag in contrast to $25k.. and sure.. I am not even sure if the odds could be much of a percentage or two from 50/50 in the whole scheme of things.  Sad to say... call me a bear (or a beaten up bull), if you must.   

Well, gosh I hardly know what to say... but that has not stopped me in the past... so why start now?

I surely have a tentative hypothesis that the 208-week (that is 4 years worth of weekly averages) moving average (which is around $13,600 as I type this post) should be in the vicinity of the absolute bottom during a bear market, but who the fuck says that we are in a bear market?  I am not going to concede that we are in a bear market, yet.

So, if we are still in a bull market, then maybe we are already in lower price territories than would seem reasonable under the consideration of normal asset classes, but bitcoin ain't no normal asset class.  So perhaps, we could use the 104-week moving average (and that would be 2 years worth of weekly averages) in order to consider a more reasonable absolute low.  The 104 week moving average is barely above $20k, and sure that could be possible as an absolute low in a bull market, even if the vast majority of us would prefer not to go there... but since when did king daddy require any kind of vote to decide where it was going or how long it might stay there.

I will concede that even getting significantly in the $20ks, and especially into the lower $20k, there is going to be very decent likelihoods of shaking a whole lot of weak hands, and gosh that could well be the purgengining of shitcoin froth that is likely to be quite healthy for the whole space - especially the various snot nosed 14 year olds investing in doge coin or the dumb-ass supposedly smart (technologically astute) people investing into ethereum and its various scam-related (innovative ways to carry out pyramid schemes) products.

So, sure we could be in for some good for the health purgenings (or would it be enemas?), even though I am not even saying that DOWN before UP is actually necessary in bitcoin and is not even necessary to purge some shitcoins.  We surely had some shitcoin purgenings between  April and June of 2019 without bitcoin suffering along with the shit, yet on the other hand, this situation that we are in might be different, especially given that we were experiencing UP together along with a large number of shitcoins (including that dumbass doge coin project) that likely could cause more extreme corrections to bring some kind of foundation back to what is reasonable in terms of value assessments.  There is almost no way, besides being funzies, that such a unsound money such as doge coin should be able to hold value for very long including rewarding the thousands of snot-nosed 14-year olds investing into it with hookers, lambos and blow.. just doesn't seem right. .. but hey. lots of weird things have been happening in the past year or so, and we cannot expect run of the mill happenings in the world, especially during a wealth transfer situation.. talking about bitcoin as the main gravitational force that is likely playing out in good amounts in the coming 20 to 60 years (that would be 1-2 generations if we consider a generation to be in the ball park of 20-30 years)...

I'm gonna repeat that my numbers had been thrown a little bit off in that poll, mostly because when I sent those numbers to infofront, the BTC price had not yet gone below $30k, so my sense of what the upper and lower bounds had been affected by the timing of my sending the numbers to infofront.

After the BTC price went below $30k, and went as low as $28,600, I came to develop an idea that maybe the lower number of $25k might need to be moved down, but hey I am willing to live with (conceptually) keeping the lower number as $25k.. that's fine, even if the odds of reaching such lower number had become higher likelihood after going below $30k, but even if we stick with the lower number at $25k, it still seems to me that realistically the higher number of $50k should come down too (based on the fact that we had gone below $30k for several hours), so it seems that effectively we would be quite likely to be out of the sideways doldrums in the event that we were to break above $46k.. so really the more realistic numbers of the poll (even at the time of publishing the poll) should have been $25k and $46k, because it seems quite likely if we are able to break above $46k, we should have a decently high level of confidence that the "bottom is in."

On the other hand, if we break below $25k, I would think that the next area of support would be in the supra $20k arena.. but breaking below $25k, would probably drag out this correction a quite a bit longer and even cause resistant folks like yours truly to be considering that we might be in a bear market... but sure, there would also be a difference in how to consider the whole matter in the event that we were to experience a quickie spike below $25k with volume that pushes the BTC price back up quickly versus some kind of longer drawn out getting stuck below $25k for several days or even for several weeks... so yeah, hoping none of those sub-$25k scenarios happen, even though probably at this particular time (as I type this post) we could still have some ongoing conceptualization that $25k and $46k remain as our current parameters to continue to consider.. and $50k would be even more icing on the UPpity cake rather than having any kind of meaningful significance.. because getting above $46k would quite likely be more than enough (however, difficult that $46k number might seem at this particular point when we are bouncing down to feeling like depressing price of testing lows of $31,607 in the past several minutes, as I have been typing this post).

You are making a good first impression here, you fucktwat.

If you believe that we are in a bear market, merely because you are wishing for it or because you are subscribing to some nonsense assessment of what is the bitcoin market based on lame indicators, then you likely have a lot to learn before you come to preach wannabe know-it-all-ness in these here parts.



Good luck with that.  You might be wrong.. but you might not.  Hopefully you have not placed too much leverage on your bet, and on a smaller note, there can be some risk for failure and refusal to reasonably and adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UP, just in case.

In udder words, if you are ONLY betting on one direction, you might end up with a not so pleasant surprise.

Time will tell, no?

Even though you are too god damned new to accept any of your representations regarding what your stake might be in one direction or another, even while you are coming into this thread attempting to establish (proclaim) that you have some kind of greater insight than guys participating herein.


I am sure that there are plenty of folks willing to bet your newbie ass on the matter, and I would recommend escrow for anyone considering such a matter with this dweeb.

Furthermore, good luck getting below the 208-week moving average especially accounting for where we seem to be at within the four-year fractal, which has not been bumped from its likely ongoing credibility as an outline for where we likely are and for where we are likely going.



Head and shoulders do not mean shit if you are failing/refusing to account for broader concepts, including zooming out ur lil selfie a wee bit MOAR broader than you seem to be zoomening.



You are saying dumber and dumber things, the further I read your post.  Billy is in a fantasy-landia and does not know the asset about which s/he/it speaks.


Yes.  An admission against interests, silly billy.


The vast majority of peeps here know that you neither sell everything, and you also do not wait very long before buying back, in the event that you do sell some BTC for insurance purposes.

In other words, one of the strongest and most tried and true methodologies in bitcoinlandia has been to employ some variation of HODL and/or accumulating strategies, so a selling strategy, especially after already going through a 56% correction seems to be the opposite of smart in the best case scenario and more likely a kind of gambling rather than having any kind of rational and meaningful justification for anyone who may well be considering ways to improve their lot in life by including bitcoin as one of their tools rather than making their lot(s) MOAR worser.


hahahahaha

This might be one of those examples in which "mistakes were made"  


Some of us are already there...

So what else is new, newbie billy no coiner?

Even though I believe that I understand what you are doing, I am not sure if your way of framing the matter is fair or even the same topic that I had mentioned.

Of course, there is always some amount of chance that BTC could go to zero, whether it is this particular correction cycle or if it were to take much further to play out.  And, there is also a rhetorical component, too.

So yeah if we are referring to the short term likelihood that bitcoin is going to zero the odds do seem to be quite low, but they are surely not at zero.. even for the short term.

In other words, we cannot completely rule out the actual possibility that bitcoin could go to zero in the short term and even in a time frame that is much less than 100 years.

Now, in terms of the rhetoric, and the kinds of feelings that status quo stake holders such as rich peeps, financial institutions and some status quo governments would like to create remains an impression that bitcoin is a flash in
the pan rather than anything meaningful and significant (as they might be learning that BTC is a much more formidable force than they are publicly admitting).  So sure, there are also a decent amount of status quo folks that are truly confused about bitcoin versus crypto and even contemplating that there are ways that bitcoin can be managed, in the event that it cannot be snuffed-out... which also likely requires coordination in the government and even coordination between governments if any kind of snuffing out might even be reasonably feasible at this stage in bitcoin's life.. and sure, I am not even suggesting that various kinds of governmental agent fantasies are realistic, but I am not going to negate that there are plenty of governmental agency officials and even status quo financial officials who might still be in their own little fantasy regarding how they are framing their ways to "deal with" bitcoin.


Yeah, but why is that even relevant?  You really believe that at this time, we need to seriously consider whether any kind of potentially non development of a sufficiently sized fee market is any kind of real and meaningful threat to bitcoin in the next 100 or so years (or less perhaps?).. there are likely much more important considerations than that seemingly almost lame talking point, no?



Yes, for sure.. the fee market and the various ways of considering 1st layer or second layer (or any other layers) is an ongoing empirical question concerning dynamics that fall into place and whether some kinds of foreseeable and important vulnerabilities begin to show themselves in respect to bitcoin (or if it all of a sudden becomes too late to fix some kind of extreme vulnerability that might exist in connection to fee/reward related incentives).
 
I guess I should not really need to repeat that I consider your pondering on this question to be a bit of a pie in the sky contemplation at this time, but hey each of us have our various considerations and concerns in regards to the various king daddy investment theses.. and how much emphasis we believe those considerations/scenarios to deserve.


Link or it did not happen.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?


Hm?  means that you are considering a kind of bullish fake out going on in bitcoinlandia, currently?



Oh gawd, Dabs.   

My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...

Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.

For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.

For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...

Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value? Sure, I am not one of those who devolve into 1 btc = 1 btc, when comes off as extreme on the other end, because no matter what we need to be attempting to peg our BTC value to something and if we lose confidence in pegging BTC value to the dollar, then we should not devolve into meaningless statements of pegging BTC to itself, and even pegging in a meaningful serving size of hookers, lambos, and blow would make more sense than either pegging bitcoin's value to itself or the nonsense that you seem to be devolving into in terms of suggesting that we should attempt to make long term assessments in regards to the dollar retaining its value or that we should peg our BTC prudence in terms of making lump sum cashening outenings of our BTC in order to speculating on having some kind of dollar security of some sort.


Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.

Yeah, but you know that bitcoin value is not ONLY a factor of dollar inflation.

That is some bullshit that bitcoin naysayers like to say in order to distract from aspects of the importance of bitcoin's ongoing beating up of the dollar.

The dollar did not deflate by 50x in the past 4 years, even though if we look at our current bitcoin price of approximately $32.5k, as I type, we see that bitcoin is 50x up.. in 4 years.

Sure the dollar is fucked up and maybe there was 5% per year deflation prior to 2020, but in the past year there probably is closer in the range of 10% to 20% and sure it could get worse or it might plateau somewhere in the ballpark of 10% to 20% of lost value per year based on irresponsible and ongoing (and seems like never going to stop) money printing.

So, yeah, maybe the ongoing dumbass policies that are causing loss of value in the dollar that goes from 5% per year to 20% per year is going to cause some measuring in the BTC price appreciation, yet a large number of us longer term bitcoiners (who seem to be studying the topic and somewhat appreciating some of what is going on in this process) likely still can see that if the dollar is going to end up going down between 5% and 20% then bitcoin is going to likely have to go up at least the same, and probably more (even accounting for UPs and DOWNs in the dippening and cyclening processes that bitcoin goes through). 

So let's say that either bitcoin is going to go up again and reach another ATH above $64,895 or there is another possibility that the bear cycle hit us a wee bit earlier than expected and we end up suffering through an extended DOWNity period from here.  Even if we account for various UPs and DOWNs from here, we are still likely going to be seeing BTC prices appreciating way the hell faster than the dollar might either be able to retain value or to be able to stave off its likely inevitable losing of value.

And, not only are we likely going to continue to see Bitcoin way the hell out performing the dollar, it is likely to way the hell outperform any of the other dollar related asset bubbles, whether we are referring to stocks and property values or we are referring to various PMs that also seem to suffer from similar kinds of dollar related manipulated mechanisms - whether papering them or just the fact that they are not as good at verifiability since we know that those of us with any kind of wherewithal can figure out that we are capable to immediately demand possession of our lil fiend, aka bitcoin.  Try that with a million dollars worth of physical gold or your dumbass Apple (or Tesla) stocks... Sure, you can demand possession of your house or your real estate, but that is still suffering from a lot of the artificial inflation that causes normies (and even BIG businesses) to use realestate and housing as storage of value (however inefficient that mechanism seems to be).

Soon^tm


Ten paciencia mujer...!!!!!. 

always loved that way of expressing the patience idea.


For sure it can be weird when some people are out there purposefully spreading bullshit and making jokes, and then at some point the joke has traction.

reminds me of someone named Elon...

whatever, we do not need to talk about that child, even though he happens to have a lot of money, too.. .there are other folks who fit a similar kind of category in having a decently large following, so people hang onto their every pronouncement and give few shits regarding whether there happens to be any truth to the claim, but instead consider how others are going to react (which surely is not something to ignore in terms of a factor to consider).

Funny this chart is.. .or maybe the better word would be ironic.

I remember looking at the previous updates of this chart and considering my lil selfie as a kind of "outsider" in terms of the backscratcher matter, but then this updated chart, I am depicted all over the place on this one.

I am sad.

Not sure if I need to do some self-reflection or just perhaps say "fuck you to you Loyce, and your little chart, too." (that's a modified line from The Wizard of Oz, if anyone wants to put me on a "plagiarism" list, too)   


hahahahhaha

 

Thanks for the info (as potentially unflattering as it may well be).. #nohomo.

Yes.. that is not exactly solving any kind of "sound money" problema..

sound money does not expire upon the dictates of some random "authority"... even though we can recognize and appreciate that expiring monedas does increase the sentiments (and perhaps even some actual hardness) of "scarcity"... .those manipulative and disingenuine fucktwats.   


I doubt that this thread, or even our current bitcoin related discussions can be boiled down to ONLY talking about charts and trends - because, think about it.. charts and trends are largely the same thing.. or subcomponents of each other, if we were to try to plot them on a venn diagram.

much more to our little fiend, bitcoin, than merely talking about trends and charts.

Also, consider the matter of whether or not bitcoin is in the midst of a fairly large number of attacks, and the fact that bitcoin could be in the middle of a war, even if some folks want you to consider that we are ONLY in the midst of a "trend" in which bitcoin gravitates towards its "inevitable price of zero.".... hahahahahaha

Should be very difficult to be proclaiming "meh" when we seem to be well in the midst of the largest quasi-peaceful wealth transfer that man has ever experienced (am I exaggerating?  not even I (aka yours truly) knows the answer to this question because it can be quite difficult to know or even to appreciate some paradigm-shifting thingie-ma-jiggie while in the midst of it).

I could understand why someone who is young might have all of their investment in crypto currencies, and sure, I can hardly give anything  shits about Ethereum in terms of some belief that some folks might have to keep some value into that.

I will admit that I frequently have expressed that there may well be some benefit in concentrating your investment until it reaches a certain value before you start to diversify. I am just not sure how much that might be, because the amount of value is going to vary from person to person in terms of wanting to at least hedge a bit so that you do no feel so emotional about the peaks and troughs in BTC prices.  I doubt we need to talk about ethereum here, since it just is likely to devolve into shitcoin talk...

Anyhow, let's say that you are able to make it through one or two bitcoin bubbles, then there might be a plan at some point to pull some value out of bitcoin and to put it into other assets - and no I am not talking about shitcoins because they are all largely correlated to bitcoin even though you may well get some pumps in them that are higher than bitcoin from time to time... when most people that know anything about even attempting diversification, there are thoughts about diversifying into asset classes that tend to have qualities to cause them to react differently to various long term market pressures that might pass through time. Of course, in the shorter term a lot of them may seem to be very correlated based on how much the dollar (and other fiats) are being manipulated, especially in recent times.

One way of diversifying is to merely play bitcoin and the dollar (and sure some other stable currencies - even though they are not exactly backed by the full faith and credit of the US Govt might be used as a kind of dollar proxy), so that you would be trying to at least off-set some of your emotions (and financial solidness) of the ups and downs by trying to put some value in the dollar during the times that bitcoin is going up and then using those dollars to buy back BTC when the price is going down.. so then that might be a way to kind of attempt to get some of the advantages of diversifications - even though it might be a more simplistic protection when you are ONLY playing with two asset classes.

So let's just say that you are a fairly young whipper snapper, and you ONLY have around $500-ish per month that you are even able to invest into bitcoin, and maybe after getting through a full 4 year bitcoin cycle, you might be able to start to consider some level of diversification into other assets, whether it be property, PMs, equities (like stocks), and/or bonds but gosh I do have some troubles considering how to go about this exactly.  Part of the reason that I have quite a bit of diversification into various stock index funds and govt bonds and fix bonds happens to be that I had a 401k that had pretty decent incentives in terms of getting a 100% matching funds for the first 5% (of my then income) that I put in, and then for the next 10% or so, I would at least be able to received tax deferral on that... so the first 5% does become almost a no brainer investment to receive 100% matching - which is hard to argue with in terms of being a good return - even if in the longer term bitcoin is likely to outperform, even that... but still hard to turn your back on a 100% matching funds, and it does cause some diversification, and surely on a personal level I had not even been presented with such a dilemma regarding whether it would be better to put my matching funds money into BTC or to get the matching funds because I had invested in mine before I even had started investing into BTC.  

Accordingly, these days investors who have exposure to 401k matching funds are faced with such a dilemma about the matching funds, and I personally would suggest matching up to the matching amount, but I am not so enthusiastic about investing soley based on tax deferred status of additional amounts whether 401ks or other investments that could be taxed deferred, and another thing that I attempt to suggest is to invest at least 10% of your cashflow.. and surely some income earning people can afford to go higher, and i would argue that the higher your income the higher percentage that you can afford to invest.. which probably anything else could go into bitcoin.. and so then the question becomes at one point of BTC portfolio accumulation would be best to achieve before starting to diversify... of course, if you do not have a 401k, then sure, you could end up putting everything into BTC.. (again fuck ethereum)....  

Now, if we look at the past 4 years of investing into bitcoin at $500 per month, we see that $24k would have been invested, and our portfolio would currently be valued at $128k (which is about a 4.3x return on our investing capital), so I would consider the reaching of those kinds of numbers as justification for diversifying, even though I do have some issues about diversifying on a bitcoin price dip, which we are now in (yes, we can call a 56% price correction and currently floating in a 40%-50% correction arena as a decently significant BTC price dip).  ...

So perhaps there could be some criteria in terms of when to start to consider diversifying, and perhaps going through a whole cycle and reaching a value of $100k plus could justify the beginning of some diversification. and for sure, anyone who might be working with smaller investment levels is going to take longer to reach something like a $100k value within their BTC portfolio... and surely also some people might have $2million or so as their fuck you entry level goal, but some folks might be o.k with smaller amounts and others feel as if they need larger amounts, which are all reasonable considerations in terms of needs for all BTC HODLer/accumulator/investors to be considering various personally tailorized particulars of how to frame their goals - and even once they get close to reaching their goals, the macro-economic circumstances may have changed in such a way that they might consider it prudent to change their goals based on circumstances that seem to have developed in the 10 years to 20 years that have passed since they initially created some of their target goals.

Well, there are all kinds of tools that we might use to attempt to figure out what is going on in bitcoinlandia, what happened, or what might happen, so even if some of those tools have names, we might not be able to determine shit from just one or two of them - even if we start to love or hate them along our bitcoin journey, no?

Also, you philip seem to be accustomed to leaving dangling conversations and I am especially referring to whether the crashed car has been replaced or no.

Yes, we may well come to differing determinations regarding how to deal with a short-term cashflow issues including whether we might dip into our king daddy or use other resources that we might have available... Sometimes we might just have a sufficient amount of cash sitting around and other times we might need to wait for a "check to arrive" (whether or insurance or otherwise) and other times we might demonstrate impatience in terms of deciding to float some BTC (or some other investment asset) in order to cover such short-term cashflow short fall issues... do our cashflow floating decisions matter?  perhaps they do?  perhaps they don't... because we might be able to see probabilities in one direction or another that affects our decision, especially if we have not yet exited our bitcoin accumulation stage.

But if we have either come close to entering fuck you status or if we are way into fuck you status, we might not give any shits.  Someone who is in some kind of fuck you status would likely not be well severed by conducting his/her finances as if s/he were in fuck you status and the reality is not.

For sure, sometimes we end up covering our short-term cashflow in one way when another way might have been preferable.. and sometimes, maybe we have drained all of our resources, for example, if we had been buying on the dip for a decently long period of time, we might not have as good of a cashflow situation now when BTC prices are bouncing around $32k to $35k as we might have had when BTC prices were supra $50k.  #justsaying that these things can happen to any of us mortal peeps.


This electrical cat does not have any problem with the word "crypto" when it is properly used in the right context that does not  try to mislead bitcoin in comparison to other projects.  For sure there are a lot of pieces of shit that are trying to ride on the coattails of our king saviour bitcoin, and in that regard, it is not right (and frequently misleading) to be throwing out such "crypto" terminology without making distinctions or clarifying what the fuck you be talking about.

Another thing is that this thread is about bitcoin, not about the broader concept of crypto (especially when the reference is not clarified), for whatever the fuck that is worth in your little pea-sized noggen  -- referring to you, Biodom.    

Good thing that hardly no one (sic) here listens to your dumbass in regards to this particular topic...


Nohomo.


 

In several of your recent posts of the past months, your interpretation of buddy has not exactly been very deep.. .but I suppose it's all relative in the whole scheme of things... .. especially if you are claiming to serve as a blocker..

 

Who am I to say?

 

Buddy is going to be passing me up in quantity of posts in the next couple of days.. we ONLY have a 23 post spread currently, as I type. I am at 23,105 posts and buddy is at 23,082 posts, and it seems best for me to recognize defeat and proclaim that my lead was fun while it lasted.. (for less than 6 months, I believe)... I might post a lot, but surely I cannot keep up with deeeee when active buddy.  Buddy has a ways to catch up to you Phillip... maybe a few years.. perhaps?  perhaps?