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In all fairness, he kept referring to the current deployment as "stress test", so a migration of some sort is plausible.
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But ebay+paypal fees will cost you about $10 per card. So you actually sold them for $80 each. Actually, he sold them for 90$. Selling price and profit are not the same thing. What's the availability on the 5850s and perhaps 5870? I am looking to buy 5ish. |
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Honestly I don't think any of us are in a position to second guess friedcat. If he is wondering if the shareholders would I've ok with temporary hires to bring them online faster, the answer is yes. However:
1. Temporary hires tend to be lower quality because few people want short term work
2. Temps are more likely to break extremely valuable components.
3. Hiring temps takes time(for all we know he could have been doing it already)
4. Training temps and ramping them up takes time.
1. Short contracts tend to be more expensive for the reason you stated, quality of them is just as subjective as long term contracts. 2. Goes with 1. 3. We don't know if he did scout, which is just as good as not, since there was no implication of speed up, in fact there was of slow down. 4. We are talking about 2-3man job adding 1(2?) hands, which is 25-50% speed increase, the ramp up is minimal considering an estimated 200day deployment based on historical data. |
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That is of course if all goes well. And the fact friedcat somewhat omitted Details on mining specifically in his last update makes me uncertain on the timeline for the full 12TH.
I somehow overlooked this earlier. Here's the thing: all the investors that floated the devrisk for this project had their spot in the sun a week or so ago. They could have sold out and made a pretty penny. The fact that the stock wasn't at the time listed on a stock market cost them significantly in that they couldn't realize their gains. Who knows how long that window lasts (or indeed if it hasn't closed already)? I believe no stock market drove the price of the shares down (hopefully temporarily). Because as a seller the incentive to sell was good (roughly 10-12x ROI at .4 considering the btc buy price of 10$ which should be considered because of the multiplicative effect vs being long). That the potential ROI could have been better or not can be irrelevant to some people after that much ROI. Buyers on the other hand didn't have much to base their purchase price on which an abundance of micro purchases and day trade will usually correct the price at appropriate value based on more objective values like potential, confidence and speculation. So basically, if all goes well, there should be more buyers, with proportionally less sellers with an appropriate stock market. |
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One interesting aspect of the deployment is the time compression effect due to hashrate acceleration. At 8-9 blocks/hour we're looking at a time compression factor of 30-50%, which reduces the 14 day blockcycle to 9/10 days.
That means that as long as the hashrate accelerates the TOTAL mining reward rate (BTC/day) is artificially increased to 4500-5500BTC/day instead of the 3600BTC/day. Another way of looking at this is that during a single adjustment cycle the PRE-EXISTING hashing power feeds of the 3600BTC/day and the ADDED hashing power feeds exclusively off the 1000BTC-2000BTC/day.
To give an example. Let's assume hashing power is at 24 TH/s and 12 TH/s were deployed additionally at the beginning of an adjustment cycle. The total reward is then:
3600 BTC/day for the 24 TH/s
1800 BTC/day for the 12 TH/s
instead of the naive assumption:
2400 BTC/day for the 24 TH/s
1200 BTC/day for the 12 TH/s
The correction factor here is 600 BTC/day (50%) bonus for the newly deployed hashing power...
ADDENDUM:
Also worth noting is that the time compression is competitive. E.g. assume a second player also adding 12 TH/s AFTER the first one has deployed and the system is equilibrated. Then the total reward is:
3600 BTC/day for the 36 TH/s
1200 BTC/day for the 12 TH/s
( instead of the naive: 2700 BTC/day for the 36 TH/s and 900 BTC/day for the 12 TH/s, thus a 300 BTC/day correction )
Thus the early deployment of ASICMINER is a double win!
Although all that is true, I was tempted to believe the naive part would be to NOT know that. Also important to note, whatever you make more is corrected in future difficulties. So you do make that 600btc earlier, but end up with close to the same total once you hit your max TH/s for 1whole difficulty. |
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I hope at least the first one at ozcoin is asicminer. But when i see at the overall hashrate the hashrate of the network isnt rising too much in the last time. Thats why i wonder if the building of asicminer-racks is moving on smoothly. And of course i wonder... when it takes days to get a couple TH online how many weeks will be needed to bring 50TH online. I mean if they dont find a way to make the production process faster that would become a problem. Of course i dont know how much TH they have till now but it doesnt look like the overall hashingpower is rising fast nor did they give out the info that 12TH are online. I dont know what they work on but i think they have to find a way to make it faster.
Overall network hash rate will move a lot soon. BTC Guild's luck since the difficulty change has been abysmal, roughly HALF the block generation we should be having at this speed, which would swing the overall network hash rate graphs about 3.5 TH/s under what they should be. Then I hope asicminer is taking PPS...  So then we have to deal with the criers about high PPS fees. Can we switch to a different crying subject? I'm dry. |
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Isn't the 50TH barely in the pipelines atm anyways? (ie 2months away). So why are we trying to fix an unlikely problem that could maybe arise in god knows how long?
For all we know, 51% is not likely at this point, so let's not fix a problem we don't have.
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Has there been any substantive conversation about how and when ASICMiner plans to try to gain consumer market share?
I see their self-mining profitability (really, the .35 / share ROI) as good, so long as they maintain a +20% share of the total network. Reportedly, something ASICMiner does not plan to do.
I don't see that "reportedly" anywhere. Do you? |
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stop relax, explain ...
maybe there is merit.. hopefully not
Just the way the guy talks it is close to a paranoid schizophrenia case with sub-par IQ. Mt. Gox doesn't really have any reason to scam. And proving that its a ponzi scheme requires more than "I think their rolling fund is strictly the consumers bankroll". Especially as an exchange is pretty much that by definition anyways. I think that you are just scarred that 1 entity within the ironically secure bitcoin network (the most secure transactions but not way to prosecute...) has so much capital on their hands that effectively do not belong to them. Which is fair. But please tell me how else an exchange should be able to function? Basically your accusations are based on normal operational behavior. Be scared all you want, but you'll need smoke before yelling fire, not vapor. Edit : rofl just saw the mod note |
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I'm really curious about what friedcat is going to do after the next 5 blocks are found and difficulty jumps - will we suddenly see another couple of TH brought online?
Do you think he'd care to wait after difficulty jump to power up new miner ? Maybe if he had 15 ths or more... Well we don't know how he's doing it. For all we know he's testing machines one by one, then taking them back offline - with the plan to put them all back online when difficulty rises. I haven't (and can't be bothered to) done the math to figure out if that actually makes sense (giving up earnings now for lower difficulty later) but would assume he has if it's relevant. Difficulty just jumped to 3651011.63069. Around the time of the next jump, BFL machines should be coming online and that will affect the following difficulty jump regardless of what friedcat does. This current difficulty period seems like the ideal time for friedcat to put his 12 TH online. There is no doubt this week would most likely be the most profitable one, but it all depends on others shipment because no matter the difficulty, if you are the sole reason for the bump, the only thing you do is make it less profitable for others while maintaining the same profitability. I also assume the entry time during a certain difficulty is irrelevant because it would only shorten the difficulty bump delay, thus generating at the same faster rate, and getting an earlier and steeper jump so biting the bullet the next week to compensate. All in all, pretty much everything is irrelevant except "sooner the better" and how soon the competition gets here. Everyday is worth multiple thousand right now, so it should definitely priority, which I can't comment on because I have no idea what's up (that part was never clarified or explained). But when your days are worth temporarily worth thousands of dollars, you buy more blow and sleep less. |
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Hey buddy, nice pool. Been on 24hours now because Pool-X crashed for 16hours which is somewhat unacceptable for me although I understand shit happens. 2% stale for now and everything is smooth on my end.
Now, I leave for a week so don't change the IP when im gone :p haha.
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Interesting. What about the following? 1) ASICMiner enterprise value calculation (showing each component) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enterprise_value#EV_equation2) ASICMiner Fully diluted shares outstanding calculation - http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fullydilutedshares.asp#axzz2L3xDoLmh3) Some valuation metrics and ratios based on the above that would be suitable to a Bitcoin mining company. For example, in the metal-mining world, we have this: https://www.google.com/search?q=Valuation+of+Metals+and+Mining+Companies (see what they talk about in some of those reports). In the Bitcoin-mining world we have.... this thread  One reason I am so interested right now is because of these auctions: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=73.0 . As I write this, ASICMiner shares are bid up to 0.42 BTC per share (and rising). At that price, what is the market capitalization of ASICMiner? And how does it relate to relevant metrics? For example, related to the cost and capacity of their mining equipment, etc. What is the cost and capacity of their equipment, BTW? Those numbers seem like the should be "easy" to calculate relatively accurately, depending on the information that is available. The hard part is the DCF and other forward-looking valuations, of course. But at least maybe we can get some of the low-hanging fruit posted here (#1, #2, and some of #3). ??  One interesting aspect you won't find on Wikipedia that has a huge impact though is the effect btc deflation has on the market. It goes against most strict rules and theories international market has since they usually deal with inflation (and also at a much lower %) and also because the large scale makes those theories more solid. Here, its a smaller scale if a couple people that hold the shares believe btc/USD is gonna increase a lot so over evaluate (which is the proper thing to do if you do indeed believe its gonna deflate). The thing is pretty much, it is gonna be over evaluated if you base it off the same theories as normal market, but how much is too much? |
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can't find the discussion right now, but the two answers above cleared it up, thanks. It's more to be seen as a bonus slowly dripping away
Basically the common stock gets a guaranteed 100% net as dividends up to .1 per share after which dividends revert to being set by the corp to whatever level they deem adequate (this is kinda how irl corps work actually). If the foregoing numbers are correct it comes to about 3 months' worth of 100% guaranteed divs. Maybe I am overly optimistic or just have my calculations wrong, but I think you are way off with your 3 months' worth of guaranteed divs (maybe I just misundestand you) From Friedcats last update it became clear that there are 1 million rmb in loans and costs that need to be paid short term. After that has been taken care of the initial investors will get dividends up to the point of 0.10 btc after which all 400.000 shares will share in the profits through dividends (payout ratio of between 60 - 80 % of profit as dividend). They are currently strsstesting with 2TH but have enough chips in hand to deploy up to 12TH in the 'short term'. 12 TH on top of the 24 TH network speed would be 1/3rd of the network speed netting them on avg 1200 BTC a day. If they can get everything online by next week sunday they will most likely have been mining without any asic comppetition other than the 2 avalon asics currently out there. On avg they wil have mined 7 days for 600 BTC per day which currently nets $15.000 per day for a total income of a little over $100.000 At that point they will be making 1200 btc a day which equals $30.000 a day 1 million rmb = $160.000 which means even if BFL starts sending out asics to their customers by the end of next week, ASICMINER will probably be debt free and have the costs paid for another batch of chips by March 1st. Afte that it really depends on BFL and Avalon how profitable ASICMINER will be for their investors. They need to mine 20K BTC to pay back their initial investors (actually only 15K as only 150.000 shares were sold throug the ipo) which means it takes between14 days to pay the initial dividend if BFL has another 3 week delay and perhaps 1 month to pay back the original investors. All depends on BFL basically.... Am I way too optimistic? That is of course if all goes well. And the fact friedcat somewhat omitted Details on mining specifically in his last update makes me uncertain on the timeline for the full 12TH. Also, I am unsure about how exactly the unsold shares affect dividends, I don't necessarily understand that part really well, but I got the impression that it pretty much means "nothings different for dividends" which means 20kbtc, not 15k. |
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It would be a good idea if shareholders could actually keep track of hashingpower and income on a website somewhere....
It'd be a good idea to stop distracting friedcat while hes busy setting up the farm. I think you just woke him up! Come on, a forum post a distraction? Lol And as a more constructive answer ; I believe the trading platform website is also gonna contain those information, especially considering you will need an account, it would be ideal and I would be surprised if they over sighted that opportunity although it isn't confirmed. |
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bitparking is too slow.
MtGox is only BTC to $
You mentioned no requirements in your OP besides where does everyone trade? Try rephrasing your question to something like: I want to trade <Insert name of pump and dump alt chain currency here> I am leaving BTC-E because <Insert whining here> and bitparking is "too slow" <insert WTF that means here> Does anyone kindly have suggestions for me? I am pretty sure he didn't say : no fuck you those are not good for me you idiot, wtf is your problem. He said : thanks but no thanks. |
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I think American mind-set is not over the other region. Please don't be such pride, mean and prejudice. Everyone can do whatever they like they want as long as they don't hurt/cheat the others intentionally. Don't ask some people to behave to some high standard, ask yourself have you ever done like you asked that high standard.
People like to live with their friends, with some one they familiar, and take that as priority, I don't see this has any malicious intention. It doesn't conflict with the free of choice principle. Have them forced you to buy something, tempted you to give out your money?
I don't know why your panties are such in a bunch. His post was about understanding cultural differences, not denying them. It was very clearly not in a racist way and your example is the exact same one as he gave but with a different subject. Maybe non-north Americans have poor reading comprehension? (Now that is an attack and an insult and just meant to prove a point.) |
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Can it be that friedcat now fixed the hashrate to around 2TH/s at btcguild and is running the rest solomining? Can this be found out?
If the other 10 TH was running, you'd notice it in the overall network hash-rate very quickly. You can't hide 10 TH in the current network, whether you're mining solo or through pools I didnt mean 10TH, but its strange that it remains at this level now. Im not sure but the part of solominers looks bigger to me now than before. And if they bring the hardware online in the same speed like with btcguild they probably are around 3TH/s at the moment in total only or so. He called the previous btcguild deployment "stress test" inferring that it might not be the start of a full deployment. There could be many reasons for that, some being : not at the permanent emplacement, temporary setup for easy access and manipulation, software setup... The list goes on. Nonetheless, every second is $$ Given that the rate fluctuated and he knew the failure rate was <5%, could they have tested everything but not yet powered everything on all at once? Maybe they are waiting for the next difficulty change to put everything online? It might make sense to not move the difficulty up given that it is changing in 48 hours. That is somewhat irrelevant since the change is based on the average and were 80% through. |
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Can it be that friedcat now fixed the hashrate to around 2TH/s at btcguild and is running the rest solomining? Can this be found out?
If the other 10 TH was running, you'd notice it in the overall network hash-rate very quickly. You can't hide 10 TH in the current network, whether you're mining solo or through pools I didnt mean 10TH, but its strange that it remains at this level now. Im not sure but the part of solominers looks bigger to me now than before. And if they bring the hardware online in the same speed like with btcguild they probably are around 3TH/s at the moment in total only or so. He called the previous btcguild deployment "stress test" inferring that it might not be the start of a full deployment. There could be many reasons for that, some being : not at the permanent emplacement, temporary setup for easy access and manipulation, software setup... The list goes on. Nonetheless, every second is $$ |
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I roughly estimate the debt to 100k USD, and roughly estimate the stress test mined coins to value around 150k USD.
How did you arrive at that figure? Using currency exchange, ×, ÷ Those numbers are very rough and are only meant as a question meaning "isn't our debt paid?" Edit1: As for your edit. http://allchains.info/calc.html Roughly avg 1500gh/s x 3 days (now that I think of it its only 2 days though, but its still not a tenth..) Edit0: Apparently I always had a "rogue" zero that was invisible (mobile Firefox bug I guess) and have been calculating 15th/s instead of 1.5th/s. Sorry. |
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Thanks for the lengthy worthwhile update. Few points that might have been missed/would like further explanation.
What is the actual status on the mining deployment? When should we expect XXTH/s and what should XX be.
And just to give a timeline at this point, (not actually important, just for the greater picture) when should shareholders expect first dividend?
Also, priority list seems on point.
Thanks.
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