back from holidays, bitcoin can stop being a bitch now

Unfortunately, this is the common misconception with trading, that you have to be right 51% of the time. Complete nonsense.

I'll try and break this down as simply as possible;

1:1 risk reward, requires being right 51% of the time to be profitable
2:1 risk reward, requires being right 34% of the time..
3:1 risk reward, requires being right 26% of the time..
etc.

It's never about being right half the time, it's exclusively about the risk:reward ratio. Different traders have different success and and different risk rewards ratios.
The most profitable traders are arguably those that are only right 25-30% of the time, because they successfully target high risk reward (4:1 or 5:1).

Exactly. 

And some people, if they were able to gain power, might actually purposely pull exactly that lever.

That is a pretty big fall ETH in particular.

2 more questions.

Where do you think the breakeven for majority of miners is? And, if these price levels are maintained, do you think we are going to see a bunch of GPUs heading to ebay?

Question for Phil when he comes online.

How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?

Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels.

Gear prices did loosen up a bit recently, but nothing close to their ROI/profitability in both fiat and BTC, but this is pretty normal, it has always been the case, gear prices go up very fast when the ROI goes down, but the opposite takes a lot longer, I still remember that right after the halving nothing has changed despite the fact that profitability was cut by half immediately, it took about 2 months for prices to adjust accordingly.

Now compared to when prices were at +60k, profitability is below 50% given the difficulty increments, but for gear prices to fall 50% we will need to remain in this region or go to worse places for months, but then you have all those pre-orders and Bitmain does not seem to be in a rush to sell gears at much lower prices, so this time around things can be very different because of the big boys that joined the games, they make all the old Chinese mining whales seem like small fish in a huge ocean.

One scenario I see possibility coming is that some of the larger players go bankrupt if prices don't rebound, all of those big players paid a premium for gears that they have yet to receive, their investors will want some return on the billions of dollars they threw at mining gears, and since we all know that BTC price can stay low for a year or so, some of those players will have a very rough time, also the selling pressure from miners will increase which will make things even worse for everybody, especially those that have yet to receive enough gears to use the infrastructure which did cost them millions and millions.

With that being said, I personally doubt we enter a prolonged bear market, this massive correction wave will be over soon and prices will rebound, with that being said, since BTC price is nearly 50% down and gear prices are not even 15% down, it makes exactly no sense to invest in mining gears now as opposed to buying BTC instead.

 

Hmmm my memory clocks can't be lowered below 1750 for some reason. Could it be the BIOS mod causing that?

i've tried them all firmwares by https://github.com/mekas17/fw non of them works, these are just old version firmwares.

after a long research like 5 hours now, the only way is to access the control board and remove the pool locking file, no matter what version you put as long as the ROOTFS is there no firmware could change pool setting.

anyhow, what i came to know to access SSH you need to have the password which if pool locking is there the normal passwords provided earlier by innosilicon t1t2t3 .. etc will not work as the when locking happened they changed the password.

they only to sort this is by password config which is only done by linux, windows will not allow.

another high cost solution is to buy a new control board which i've tried and it worked but again very high cost as it cost around $200 for one only and i have 10 which i beleive it doesnt worth it.

i will keep you guys updated when i reach a solution on this

Sapphire 5700xt reference. Water cooling is too expensive and a huge hassle for me. The overall temps are pretty good I agree but memories go to 90 degrees celsius. Will additional fans on the sides and on top affect memory temps?

Where's the mass hysteria and crash in gear prices!? S19 is still $100/TH ... that's 22.7 months to ROI at 5c power.

Well, I guess even if gear prices don't budge, if the price stays like this for any period of time the hosting market is going to have to open up some, right? Will the hosts be able to find people to pay $100/th and pay >8c? ... that's >2 year ROI.

You're not wrong, but I agree with JayDDee, you're not paying the OS, you're paying for the service they provided to you

For me and probably most users here, we have few rigs, I use Hive OS for free, only in 1 rig, and I have windows in another rig, because I use as my PC.

But can you imagine someone having more than 10 rigs for example, using windows?
It's a mess, you set windows to turn off updates and tweak everything to mine, and then windows make some updates, restart, have problems with drivers etc

That person can use Linux, but it's a long way to do everything, set a restart for GPUs in case they failed, or some problem with electricity, download drivers etc

With specific mining OS, everything is easy, in a few minutes you can set your cards, overclock, put the rig to restart after a crash, and you can monitoring everything in one place, it's the cost to this service you're paying.

Do you mean cancel those orders and just buy the BTC instead?

Do that or set a few buy orders perhaps