Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714134640]

1714134640

[1714134640]

1714134640

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets.

Such a catch 22.  There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be.

And they might be right.

Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy.

[somac.]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets.

prediction: +0.5%, but nothing would be broken..it's "getting priced in"

What I mean is break in the short-term, as in market will collapse. It's not the rate move that matters now, as you say they are priced in. It's what their tone is that matters. If they maintain a strong hawkish tone, that is what will not go down well. If they change to a dovish tone, market will rally in a big way.

If they don't go dovish this time, they will next time, as the mistake will be very apparent.

[somac.]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets.

Such a catch 22.  There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be.

And they might be right.

Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy.

Yes but the second torching of the economy you mention is very drawn out, and also gives time to reform the system (lol, never happen due to corruption). The first is not an option, as it will trigger the system into a deflationary spiral that it will not be able to get out of (by itself) without serious destruction to society.

[proudhon]

Damn...I like how many start having these bearish 10k 9k Vegeta thoughts...

I'm likely to start drinking again if we do the whole Vegeta thing again.

I am SO ABSOLUTELY over it.

Indeed. I had goosebumps just hearing about Vegeta again.

[aesma]

So what we are seeing is the result of the Russian crypto ban fud + Kazachstan internet shutdown + WW3 scares + interest rate fud.

Thats a lot of FUD for one month. If China invades Taiwan and Ukraine gets invaded then I am seeing really nice buying prices for this year. 10k would be nice.

100k is coming, one way or another. The question is not if, but when.

I was thinking the Crypto.com hack was what pushed us down with this latest leg...  Scary because it wasn't THAT much crypto that was stolen.  Something like 440 BTC and 4,000 ETH or thereabouts...  When you think about mtgox dumping 200,000 BTC onto the market and ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH that has been staked on the market, it's a bit scary.  I think we're witnessing the big boys get ahead of this coming wave of dumping.  Likely every bounce will be heavily sold until this cloud is removed from hanging over the market's head.  Without a spot ETF in the US to soak up some of this coming liquidity, we might look back at $35K and wish for those days.

I have trouble following all the crypto news, but what do you mean by "ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH" ? Isn't the point of ETH 2.0 to go to a staking formula, and thus not a release but rather the opposite, more ETH staked ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

I have trouble following all the crypto news, but what do you mean by "ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH" ? Isn't the point of ETH 2.0 to go to a staking formula, and thus not a release but rather the opposite, more ETH staked ?

Staking is already happening but staked ETH2s are currently locked up in validators and can't be moved. A hard fork later this year (although given how slow Ethereum development is, it might be sometime in 2024) will allow those coins to be moved. Staking started in late 2020 when ETH was like $500, there's a good chance that substantial profit-taking will happen once withdrawals from validators are allowed. Unless it goes back below $500 by then.

[somac.]

Question for Phil when he comes online.

How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?

Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels of profitability.

[philipma1957]

Question for Phil when he comes online.

How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?

Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels.

Have not done numbers but it is down bigly.

I have sweetheart power deal that always makes money (as long as gear is working) My deal is free power and gives ½ the coins.

So I do better now the host does better in the summer.

He did so well he is installing the 280kwatt solar array. But we are an exception not the rule.

BTC was as high as 50 cents a th at peak about 50 bucks a day for a s19
ETH was as high as 20 cents an mh at peak about 20 bucks a day for a 3080 gpu
Ltc/doge was over 20 usd a gh at peak

all have dropped a lot

btc is around 17 cents a th a s19 burning  3400 watts is making  $17.68
eth is down to 3.4 cents an mh a nvidia 3080 burning 250 watts is making $3.40
ltc/doge is down to 5 usd a gh. that would be 2 L3+ bring 1600 watts


these rates are really bad and may mean true bear has started (or not)

[Gachapin]

Damn...I like how many start having these bearish 10k 9k Vegeta thoughts...
Might be a good basis for a nice surprise

And even with a 30k bottom we would form a nice longterm upwards channel

Muahaha I can't believe I've just read it... we're at ~$35k and ur talking about $9k? That's a whole new level of pussy....  

Maybe my English wasn't clear enough..

... I was talking about people even mentioning 10k, and that this fear might be a good basis for a nice surprise...

Usually it's not a good sign price-wise when everyone is bullish, as we have seen this winter.. So I found to like it when many, even in the WO, turn bearish and start talking about insane lows like 10k...

[somac.]

Question for Phil when he comes online.

How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?

Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels.

Have not done numbers but it is down bigly.

I have sweetheart power deal that always makes money (as long as gear is working) My deal is free power and gives ½ the coins.

So I do better now the host does better in the summer.

He did so well he is installing the 280kwatt solar array. But we are an exception not the rule.

BTC was as high as 50 cents a th at peak about 50 bucks a day for a s19
ETH was as high as 20 cents an mh at peak about 20 bucks a day for a 3080 gpu
Ltc/doge was over 20 usd a gh at peak

all have dropped a lot

btc is around 17 cents a th a s19 burning  3400 watts is making  $17.68
eth is down to 3.4 cents an mh a nvidia 3080 burning 250 watts is making $3.40
ltc/doge is down to 5 usd a gh. that would be 2 L3+ bring 1600 watts


these rates are really bad and may mean true bear has started (or not)

That is a pretty big fall ETH in particular.

2 more questions.

Where do you think the breakeven for majority of miners is? And, if these price levels are maintained, do you think we are going to see a bunch of GPUs heading to ebay?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Question for Phil when he comes online.

How is the current mining profitablility at these levels? and when was the last time it was at these levels?

Summer's drop had a large decrease in hash rate, this one doesn't so I imagine we are back to late 2020 levels.

Have not done numbers but it is down bigly.

I have sweetheart power deal that always makes money (as long as gear is working) My deal is free power and gives ½ the coins.

So I do better now the host does better in the summer.

He did so well he is installing the 280kwatt solar array. But we are an exception not the rule.

BTC was as high as 50 cents a th at peak about 50 bucks a day for a s19
ETH was as high as 20 cents an mh at peak about 20 bucks a day for a 3080 gpu
Ltc/doge was over 20 usd a gh at peak

all have dropped a lot

btc is around 17 cents a th a s19 burning  3400 watts is making  $17.68
eth is down to 3.4 cents an mh a nvidia 3080 burning 250 watts is making $3.40
ltc/doge is down to 5 usd a gh. that would be 2 L3+ bring 1600 watts


these rates are really bad and may mean true bear has started (or not)

That is a pretty big fall ETH in particular.

2 more questions.

Where do you think the breakeven for majority of miners is? And, if these price levels are maintained, do you think we are going to see a bunch of GPUs heading to ebay?

Nope. Its why I know I will cancel my 5700 or some coming in. I did cancel 2500 of it.
Its not on hand.

I do have. 9700 usd just arrived.

It does 400 mh or 15 a day. It burns 800 watts or 20 kwatts a day.

at 20 cent power that is 4 bucks .

So 15-4= 11 a day which is a profit even for a person with 20 cent power why dump?

Now I overpaid for these but my power cost is 2.60 in my garage. I net 12.40 a day

I would need 2 years to break even but the gear is three year warranty. So why sell?

What will happen is the 2600 price for a 3090 will get closer to 2200.

But eth profits are still much better per watt than btc gear.

It may be I return the 9700 in gear that is over priced I have 21 or 22 days to decide.

But I may keep it. My in house price is cheap and my farm deal is good.

If eth fades more like 1700 or 1600 maybe more good ebay prices.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@EricRWade
BTC traders need to be correct 501 out of 1,000 times.

#HODLers only have to be right once.
https://twitter.com/ericrwade/status/1485027057037811713?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets.

Such a catch 22.  There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be.

And they might be right.

Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy.

Yes but the second torching of the economy you mention is very drawn out, and also gives time to reform the system (lol, never happen due to corruption). The first is not an option, as it will trigger the system into a deflationary spiral that it will not be able to get out of (by itself) without serious destruction to society.

Exactly. 

And some people, if they were able to gain power, might actually purposely pull exactly that lever.

[philipma1957]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

I don't think we'll get that till the Fed meeting. This meeting is the most important one in a long time, it will make or break the markets.

Such a catch 22.  There are a significant number of Americans that now will believe the economy is being torched on purpose by the powers that be.

And they might be right.

Or on the other hand they can also keep going the way they have been... and torch the economy.

Yes but the second torching of the economy you mention is very drawn out, and also gives time to reform the system (lol, never happen due to corruption). The first is not an option, as it will trigger the system into a deflationary spiral that it will not be able to get out of (by itself) without serious destruction to society.

Exactly. 

And some people, if they were able to gain power, might actually purposely pull exactly that lever.

There is no question the USD is being disabled via deficits.

We got off gold under prez nixon around 1971 and the next 51 budgets we are 5 black 46 red

last 20 budgets all red.

[shahzadafzal]

“I only eat ramen noodles”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation