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781  Economy / Economics / Re: Nobel economist Krugman on bitcoin and crypto-currencies. on: May 28, 2011, 05:17:49 AM
Come on. Everyone must have realized the Nobel Prizes have become worthless when they gave the Nobel Peace Prize to a warmonger.

The Nobel Prize for Economics is not granted by the Nobel Prize Committee.  It's not really even related to the Nobel Prize.  It's given out by the Central Bank Board in honor of the Nobel Prize.  Basicly, if your economic theories are favorable to the central banks of the world, you're in the running.  Otherwise, you will never win.

Perhaps it has changed, but I found this humorous:

Quote
Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal (who was a recipient of the prize himself) and former Swedish minister of finance Kjell-Olof Feldt have also advocated that the Prize in Economics should be abolished. Myrdal's position of wanting the prize abolished was based in the fact that it had been given to such "reactionaries" as Friedrich Hayek (whom Myrdal shared the 1974 Prize in Economics with) and afterwards to Milton Friedman in 1976.
782  Economy / Economics / Re: Nobel economist Krugman on bitcoin and crypto-currencies. on: May 28, 2011, 01:00:30 AM
Inflation is actually low if one considers M3 (known monetary base + credit issued, etc) as opposed to simply M1 (monetary base).  The reason here would be because of the large amount of debt that was destroyed due to the real estate crash.  Even with the doubling of M1 since 2007, the paper value destroyed by the forclosures and general drop in home values exceeds the rise in M1.

Using price increases as your measurement for inflation, whether you include food and energy or not, is a fundamentally flawed method.

My impression of the situation is this...

From 2008, the monetary base (M0, I thought) has tripled. The reason we haven't seen increased prices due to this inflation is because banks have increased their reserves, which means they are not lending. In fact, I have heard (though have not found sources) that the Fed is paying banks interest on their excess reserves as an incentive.

This seems strange to me, as the stated point of the bank bailout was to increase the availability of credit. But as soon as the banks start loaning again, that tripled monetary base is going to be multiplied by the effect of fractional reserve lending, and... prices increase?

What do you think?
783  Economy / Economics / Re: Nobel economist Krugman on bitcoin and crypto-currencies. on: May 27, 2011, 09:07:15 PM
I, for one, am very much curious about what Krugman would say about the economic aspects of Bitcoin.

And by the way, why all the disdain for Krugman expressed in this thread?  As far as mainstream economists go, I have the utmost respect for him.  He has been consistently been correct on his predictions and he has always been coherent with his arguments.

LOL!  What nonsense!  There has been numerous articles from real economists pointing out Krugman's poor prediction record!  One I've seen actually demonstrated how Krugman is only slightly better than throwing darts at a dartboard blindfolded.  If you want to see an economist with a real track record for accuracy, try Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/)  Peter Schiff (http://www.europac.net/) or Rich Maybury (http://chaostan.com/).  All of these guys actually make money, real fortunes, based upon their predictions.  Krugman makes money selling advice to readers of the NYT.  He's the economic version of "ask Nancy".

If you are taking your advice from someone who doesn't make a living from his own advice, you are an idiot.

I've been trying to find the article where someone points out all of the times that Krugman has been wrong about the financial crisis and changed his position afterward. Unfortunately I cannot find it. Sad

Here's one: http://mises.org/daily/3530
784  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin without mining on: May 27, 2011, 07:53:53 PM
So Big-Up-Yo-Self to jed and to all who wish to fundamentally improve on the wastefulness of the Bitcoin system!

It is not wasteful, it is maybe less efficient than other solutions.

Do you consider gold or diamond mining (above that necessary for industrial use) wasteful?

785  Other / Archival / Re: Silk Road: anonymous marketplace. Feedback requested :) on: May 27, 2011, 06:37:57 PM
He's spamming his site all over the forum.

In other news...

Has anyone considered that Silk Road (and other similar sites) actually makes the drug trade less, in spite of prohibition? Consider the combination anonymity, escrow/arbitration, and a reputation system.

Reputation allows buyers to make informed decisions, escrow gives both buyer and seller added protection against fraud, arbitration gives both parties a non-violent recourse to disputes, and anonymity protects against any violent recourse outside the system. Notably, anonymity not only protects from violent recourse from other traders, but also from law enforcement.

Just something I was thinking about...
786  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Tea store wanting to accept bit coins on: May 27, 2011, 06:25:20 PM
I think you are going to annoy people and maybe get yourself banned if you keep this up.

I'm reporting every additional instance of this post that I see.
787  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Introducing SquareWear.biz, a bitcoin only apparel store on: May 27, 2011, 06:23:56 PM
What do you think?

I think you should stop spamming this on unrelated threads.

In other news, I received my "Money doesn't grow on trees..." Bitcoin shirt in the mail and it is very nice! I'll be wearing it this weekend, while engaging in other Bitcoin related activities.  Cheesy
788  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: USA Banking Giants announce new bitcoin like money transfer service clearXchange on: May 27, 2011, 04:19:32 PM
Here's a factor that we may not have considered.

Perhaps they'll all sue each other to death, while Bitcoin climbs upon their bloody corpses.  Grin
789  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin without mining on: May 27, 2011, 04:14:29 PM
I would argue that it will be even more consolidated. There will just be a few large mining operations and some big pools. This makes the issue of trust even worse.

That's conjecture. Maybe in the future every person has a solar powered Bitcoin Box with a hardware encrypted key storage mechanism and an energy efficient ASIC doing hashes. We'll only know when that time comes. Also, as creighto has mentioned many times, merchants will have a stake in securing the network as well.

BitterTea: It also doesn't mater how energy efficient the card is. They will just use more cards to mine then.

The amount of economical mining activity is a function of the generation subsidy size, purchasing power of a bitcoin, and energy costs. Anyway, security against double spending isn't the only function of mining, it also serves to distribute the currency initially. Unless you have another method to do so, mining is still a reality until all 21 million coins are distributed.
790  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitcoin without mining on: May 27, 2011, 03:58:43 PM
One thing to keep in mind, I think, is that mining is in its infancy. The majority of network computing power comes from giant power sucking video cards, because that's what happens to be useful and on hand. ArtForz's ASICs are (IIRC) 6x more power efficient than 5970s, and that's just the work of one man.

Additionally, in the future miners might be mining against any number of block chains simultaneously, distributing the energy and monetary cost of mining across multiple systems, Bitcoin being just one of them.

I'm not saying there's no place for a trust network, either in place of mining or in addition to it (maybe "I trust these nodes would never engage in an attack on the network"), but I think it's important to keep in mind that the future will most likely look nothing like the present.
791  Other / Off-topic / Encrypted Jabber Communication on: May 27, 2011, 06:52:59 AM
After a discussion with a friend, I wanted to find an encrypted chat solution. I came across Psi, an open source Jabber client that supports OpenPGP encryption.

I have to say, I love it. The user interface is very minimal, I find it much more pleasing than Pidgin. It's easy to set up but there appear to be lots of advanced settings. It was trivial to get it running over Tor with polipo, and OpenPGP integration is very nice.

You can use the UI to register a new account on any Jabber server, or use an existing account. Here's how to set it up for Google chat.

Mods: if there's a more appropriate place for this, please move it. I didn't think it fit in technical support or bitcoin discussion. (lol, I meant to put it in Other > Off-topic, not Local > Other)
792  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Bounty: development of efficient open-source FPGA/ASIC mining solution on: May 27, 2011, 05:56:55 AM
I'll move my 20 BTC bounty to the $2.00 price point. I think an open source approximation of ArtForz's capability is a good starting point.  Cheesy
793  Economy / Economics / Re: Speculators on: May 27, 2011, 05:27:56 AM
Everyone is a criminal. There are 10k+ laws and you don't know them and can't follow them. Criminal has been synonymous with person for a long while now.

Unless you mean something else by crinials. I don't know what it could be, but I also don't know how you can misspell a word you put in all caps.

Somebody needs to place an order on Silk Road. Wink

This is a very, very good thing. Markets want to be free.
794  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Political Orientation on: May 27, 2011, 12:28:23 AM
if mr rebutter had been elected or appointed to some position with the power to purchase vehicles on behalf of the residents of that area, then his argument would make some sense. 

as it is, his argument is a complete non sequitur as there was no act granting him the powers he's assuming himself to have.

Only a tiny fraction of the population voted to authorize the collection of income taxes per the 16th amendment. In what way is it different?

If taking property without the consent of the owner is immoral for an individual, how is it moral for a group to authorize that same act? How big of a group is necessary before such an act is moral?

I'll suggest that it's not a matter of morality at all, it's always immoral to take property without the consent of the owner. It's merely a matter of who has the most guns. In which case, how is that any different from organized crime?
795  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: USA Banking Giants announce new bitcoin like money transfer service clearXchange on: May 26, 2011, 11:41:47 PM
see the funny thing is I agree with all of you
...
I am done arguing, I love you all.

Shut up, I agree with you!

No, you shut up, I agree with you!

Grin

Guy's, he's just saying that at first glance, the average schmuck isn't going to see any benefit to bitcoin when the bank they've been doing business with offers clearXchange. They're completely wrong of course, we all know that those banks are fucking them over in any number of ways, but you can't cure stupid.
796  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: What's your magic number? (or, Should I keep mining?) on: May 26, 2011, 10:26:40 PM
Bitter Tea: Thanks for writing the script, but something seems backwards, when I put 15mhash it says profitable, when I put 1500Mhash its says not profitable.

Oops, I messed up the comparison. It should be
Code:
if(magicNumber > baseline) alert('Mining is profitable!'); ...
797  Economy / Economics / Re: Fundamental Analysis of BTC, is BTC overvalued? on: May 26, 2011, 09:45:09 PM
One thing I'm not sure is taken into account in these calculations... Miner's aren't necessarily selling all the coins they generate. Does that significantly change the scenario at all?
798  Economy / Economics / Re: Speculators on: May 26, 2011, 09:29:23 PM
You should read about him.  I'm sure he could come up with a way where the opposite was true.

You're right, he's a super villain with super currency manipulation powers. The laws of supply and demand do not apply to him.

From the Wikipedia article you linked...

Quote
The financial crisis that originated in Thailand in 1997 was particularly unnerving because of its scope and severity.... By the beginning of 1997, it was clear to Soros Fund Management that the discrepancy between the trade account and the capital account was becoming untenable. We sold short the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit early in 1997 with maturities ranging from six months to a year. (That is, we entered into contracts to deliver at future dates Thai Baht and Malaysian ringgit that we did not currently hold.) Subsequently Prime Minister Mahathir of Malaysia accused me of causing the crisis, a wholly unfounded accusation. We were not sellers of the currency during or several months before the crisis; on the contrary, we were buyers when the currencies began to decline – we were purchasing ringgits to realize the profits on our earlier speculation. (Much too soon, as it turned out. We left most of the potential gain on the table because we were afraid that Mahathir would impose capital controls. He did so, but much later.)

Also, perhaps your bias prevented you from noticing this part of the article.
799  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The next difficulty level will make mining unprofitable. on: May 26, 2011, 09:22:55 PM
Alright, so I'm a relative noob to the BTC world, but I keep seeing these doom and gloom predictions that mining will become unprofitable and I don't get it.  Yes, the network will increase in difficulty and yes, your rig may not be making as many bitcoins as it once used to, but considering bitcoins will become scarcer, their value should go up and keep it profitable.

I could be completely off base, but you can see the same thing happening in the real world.  Oil, gold, etc., as it get's harder to 'mine' something and you need ever more expensive equipment to do it, the item will be worth more when you do get it.

I know this is an overly simplistic view of things, but at some point, you will need to buy more expensive equipment to mine bitcoins.  I'm sure there's a lot of folks that used to CPU mine that had to move to GPU's, and at some point GPU's will be surpassed by the next big jump in mining power, but theoretically, the coins should be worth more, so it should be a wash.

Some people believe that mining will not be profitable, others believe it will. Only time will tell.

For the record, I agree with you.
800  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The next difficulty level will make mining unprofitable. on: May 26, 2011, 09:20:20 PM
mining will ALWAYS be profitable, in the long term. once it becomes unprofitable, people will drop out, causing the difficultly to decrease, which will make it profitable again.
Even assuming that miners behave in a purely rational profit-seeking way, this statement is only true in a weak sense. What you should write is, "Mining will always be profitable, given that you possess hardware near the current top of the line in terms of mining efficiency." It's certainly not obvious that mining with a GPU will always be profitable, and even less obvious that buying a GPU to mine will always be profitable.

If you're trying to imply that current hobbyist miners have nothing to worry about, you're off the mark.

In the future, hobbyists will have more powerful computers, so I think it will be true for a long time that hobbyist mining is profitable, just not as profitable as professional mining.
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