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7961  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: On the Clothing of Emperors: A Rant about 21.co and the Future of Bitcoin Mining on: May 08, 2015, 06:24:48 PM
Bottom line is nobody questions if their router, heater, TV box, cable box, etc is PROFITABLE, because they are clearly looked at as home-related expenses, nothing else.
The ad would simply mention the fact that you would get MONTHLY cash (or bitcoin, preferably) when you use this device vs regular device while downplaying an increased power consumption, price of which could be mitigated or completely eliminated by per kw discounts applied (as previous poster amply noted).
7962  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Decentralization of mining is returning ... thoughts on 21 inc secret plans? on: May 08, 2015, 06:18:06 PM
The electricity meter is a much better candidate than any of these.

theoretically, maybe, but electricity meter that is using 0.5-1kw?
7963  Economy / Speculation / Re: The $GBTC Wall Observer on: May 08, 2015, 06:14:12 PM
From company information:
Quote
Each BIT share represented ownership of 0.1 bitcoins initially. The trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.

BTC/USD = $243
BIT/USD = $530

Nice markup! They say it's easier to move money once it's in the system. I'm curious if that's the case and people don't care the 110% premium or they are just un-informed investors?

I can give you a use case - in retirement accounts most people can only buy official stocks. So if you expect BTC to go to $50,000, you don't care if you get it at $250 or $500, if your retirement account is such that profits are not taxed, you are still better off paying double in the long run.


this is not so.
$500 buys you 2.03BTC, and same $$ buy 10 GBTC= ~1BTC.
You to have tax rates in excess of 50% in order to make buying GBTC justified mathematically.
However, two prices seem to move to converge. When GBTC was $65 and bitcoin 234, it made more sense to sell GBTC and buy bitcoin.
I think that GBTC and bitcoin prices will converge at some point.
7964  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin be around in 5 years? If so, what's its price? on: May 08, 2015, 06:02:36 PM
i think it will be still around in 2020.and the price will be 50k at least.

it would be nice, but the questions would then be:
1. should I cover my mortgage with a few coins or continue to hold for 100K, 200K, etc.?
2. should I exchange a few more coins on another or better RE piece?
7965  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Decentralization of mining is returning ... thoughts on 21 inc secret plans? on: May 08, 2015, 02:37:10 PM
i think the main candidates for double use devices are:

1. electrical heaters (as philip had posted) with a limitation of seasonality
2. routers
3. cable boxes
4. TV streaming devices (such as Roku or Apple TV)

most people I know don't unplug their TV cable boxes even when they are not in use and obviously use some electricity.
same for routers, so clear choices for a dual use hashing device will be routers and cable/TV streaming boxes.
This way (routers and cable boxes) 21 would really only need to make deals with large cable companies (comcast, TW, cablevision), and not even bother with individuals.
They could kick 25% to consumers, 15-20% to large distributors and keep 55-60% to themselves.
7966  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin be around in 5 years? If so, what's its price? on: May 08, 2015, 02:20:27 PM
Despite its peak at nearly at $140,000 in 2018 by the time 5 years is passed people will be proclaiming the death of bitcoin after its price plummets down to about $23,000. However there will still be diehards saying that the all time high can be broken and bitcoin will go to the moon. Hardly anyone will own whole bitcoins by then.

>image snip<

You are probably right in optimistic scenario, but i would so much preferred it just hugging a dark red trendline Wink
It would save so much angst.
I could not even fathom the emotions of a person if and when it goes to 140K only to "collapse" to 23K.
Knowing myself-I wouldn't be able to handle such volatility.
Almost nobody could-you basically would have to be removed from markets all together to not sell.
In any case, i don't think that we have two more "bubbles" left in bitcoin-perhaps just one, but it could be the biggest.
7967  Economy / Speculation / Re: The $GBTC Wall Observer on: May 07, 2015, 08:29:27 PM
will be interesting to watch on what sort of premium above the underlying BTC price the shares settle.

Let's make a poll and guess?

it should settle similarly to GLD at ~1-2% discount, NOT premium
7968  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some good action brewing in the GBTC again! on: May 07, 2015, 06:44:46 PM
Lol pretty sure its illegal for a broker to purchase bitcoins off some unregulated exchange with client IRA funds.

who needs a broker to buy bitcoin on coinbase or itbit?


Pretty much anybody that wants a portion of there 401k or IRA invested in bitcoin.  That's what shares like gbtc are for.  

Nobody with at least reasonable knowledge of finance pays more for any assets in IRA than on non-retirement accounts.
Maximum tax is no more than 45-50% in the top bracket at most taxing US jurisdictions.
You can buy 2.77 bitcoins for the price of one "GBTC" bitcoin
50% of 2.77 BTC is 1.385 BTC, so even in a worse case of taxation, it is still 40% more profitable (MATHEMATICALLY) to buy BTC on exchange than GBTC in most favored retirement account.

I guess, it simply shows that most people don't have cash, but have IRA balances.
i don't think that bitcoin per se was ever a "tulip", but GBTC certainly is one.
7969  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some good action brewing in the GBTC again! on: May 07, 2015, 06:08:49 PM
Lol pretty sure its illegal for a broker to purchase bitcoins off some unregulated exchange with client IRA funds.

who needs a broker to buy bitcoin on coinbase or itbit?
7970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some good action brewing in the GBTC again! on: May 07, 2015, 05:56:54 PM
It doesn't do much for the fund owner's reputation that they are allowing this overvalued trading to happen.  They should dump every share they can at above market price and use the excess funds to increase the holdings of the fund.  The fact they are instead slowly leaking shares on the market at a huge inflated price makes it seem like they're taking advantage of ignorant investors to make a few bucks.  I'll wait for COIN before throwing my $ down the rabbit hole.  GBTC is clearly not a good investment option.

Maybe they have given themselves rules to not trade against customers in their own shop.

Sure, I can see them making rules to sell their shares at >400% markup instead of fair market price.  Whatever justifies ripping people off I guess.

I think choosing to let shares float at such overinflated prices as opposed to selling more shares to bring the price back in line means that insiders are cashing out before the great fall to fair value.  It also shows they lack faith in their ability to grow the fund honestly and make their $ from management fees, and instead are using the low volume and lack of able sellers to manipulate prices in order to cash out more than their shares are worth.  

GBTC has turned out into some stupidity.
Whoever the current buyers are, they are among the most easily fooled people on this planet.
I would like to hear what is their justification for paying $650 for the asset that could be easily had (on the fully regulated FDIC insured US based exchange-see todays news) for $234

I would avoid this fund at all costs, and if COIN is operated in a similar manner, I would recommend avoiding that as well.

^^^^Definitely, but most likely COIN will be similar to GLD or SLV and trade at some small discount to the underlying
7971  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Is BTC price sustainable with mining & electricity costs leaving the ecosystem? on: May 07, 2015, 05:51:15 PM
I could be missing the bigger picture, or other factors, which make this not something to worry about. And that is what I am seeking by the purpose of this thread.


At the current price, there are about $25 million worth of bitcoins "leaving the ecosystem" (if you go with the horrible assumption that bitcoin miners have no interest in bitcoin whatsoever) monthly.

That is peanuts in the world of finance. That amount of VC money flows into Bitcoin companies regularly. I know they are not buying bitcoins but they are investing in the technology which then makes Bitcoin better and encourages even larger amounts of funds to flow into Bitcoin.



I agree. People are talking about at most $25 mil (in reality, i don't think that miners sell more than 50% of mined bitcoin) per month in negative flow, maybe less.
For a planet with 7 bil people this is not just miniscule, but microscopic or, to be specific, less than 0.4 cents per mo per each earth inhabitant.
7972  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Unofficial Spondoolies SP20 thread on: May 06, 2015, 06:42:54 PM
What you guys try to do when one particular ASIC in SP20 is close to overheating?
I hate to change my settings since it works great for the other seven.
in fact, the second ASIC in the same loop shows 85C, but the one in question sometimes bumps to 120C. I tried to limit power to that loop, but it has a limited effect.
Did anyone tried to lower the upper voltage (this would affect all ASICS, so i am kind of hesitant) or lower voltage for one loop successfully to cool down hot outlier ASIC?
Of course, i can just disable this one and boost power to the other seven to get close on hashing, but it would be more drastic.
did anyone also try to clean the machine inside? does this help?
7973  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does great wealth equal great responsibility? on: May 06, 2015, 06:21:36 PM
Facebook's IPO alone created a thousand millionaires.
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebooks-ipo-will-create-1000-millionaires-2011-12

If bitcoin becomes even a small global currency, it will make Facebook's IPO look like small potatoes. But you'll likely need to own 100-300+ bitcoin to really change your life. If you have 5 bitcoin and bitcoin goes to 20,000, that's good, but it's not going to change your life. You can get a new kitchen or you pay off your student loans early. Great.

Despite the famous stories, I don't think bitcoin has created more than 1000 millionaires in its entire lifetime. People are just too tempted to cash out after 1 or 2 doublings OR they held on for  far too long.

The problem is getting 100 BTC before the rally happens. If it stays at this low price for a couple years then it's doable, but imagine it goes up while you are trying to stack up... it basically becomes mission impossible if it goes higher, so I hope we have a low price for a couple years so we can make decent amounts of BTC meanwhile.

Check my signature. Now is the time to accumulate. I think we have 5-6 years of volatility before bitcoin starts making much smaller moves. From now until then, I think we will have some opportunities to accumulate. If it goes down to $100 or $75, then it becomes attainable for lots of people to get to 100 BTC. Even now, most adults can do it in a couple of years with hard work.

IF it will go to $75-100, not many will even bother buying. Most will consider it dead after a 94% decline. I know that it would be roughly equivalent to 2011 decline, but that one was when there were a tiny number of participants. Going from $1200 to $75 would mean that everyone invested in 2014 will be losing large %%.

7974  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. OPEN for picks NOW! on: May 05, 2015, 10:45:32 PM
hi
-2.76 to -3.00

Thanks
7975  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ANTMINER S5: 1155GH(+OverClock Potential), In Stock $0.319/GH & 0.51W/GH on: May 05, 2015, 10:37:21 PM
Any news why the bitmaintech.com is down?

Not sure appears to be down for me  as well.  I also can't get to antpool either.  So likely all of their main sites down.

this was discussed here some time ago.
Apparently, bitmain made a coding error or omission whereas when you simply type bitmain.com in the browser window, it does not re-direct to secure https://bitmaintech.com
The solution is to type the whole https thingie, which is way too much for a regular lazy browser like myself.
I think that quite a few people are annoyed by this.

In short: redirect from bitmaintech.com to https://bitmaintech.com does not work, but https site works
7976  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 05, 2015, 10:21:41 PM
Winklevii are probably foaming at the mouth after seeing these shares go for over double market value.  Probably on the phone with the SEC right now lol.

Well the twins should get off the pot and make this happen. They've been talking about it for what 2 years? If GBTC has been able to find an approval path, what is the holdup for COIN? Worse, it seems that other potential funds have taken a wait and see approach with COIN and decided to let them pave the way and follow. But if COIN does not execute that just stalls the market.

The price action on GBTC is demonstrating the real investment potential that OTC markets could unlock. This needs to happen and faster.

BTW, which brokers have people had success at least putting orders in? I have schwab and they are providing quotes, but are not offering trades yet.

Actually GBTC has taken a path that doesn't require approval. They're claiming an exemption from securities regulation under Reg D which means they're only allowed to take funds directly from accredited investors and the reason the shares are subject to a restricted period.

The holdup for COIN is entirely on SEC's part. The commission has the authority to simply not grant approval for as long as it wants to.

Thanks for the explanation, if this is the case then the SEC policy doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

After accredited investors purchase shares and hold for 1-year, they are now selling those shares to non-accredited investors on the OTC market. Which means that non-accredited investors are buying the fund in the end. The only difference for GBTC is that only accredited investors can initiate the creation of shares, but anyone can trade them.

If I'm understanding this correctly is seems absurd.

GBTC price does not demonstrate any investment potential, it is just a perversion of free markets.
GBTC has no value beside bitcoin and as such, it should be worth $23.5, NOT $55, OR bitcoin should be worth ~$550.
Conclusion: GBTC at $55 (with bitcoin at $235) is an abomination.
At least GLD ETF generally follows the the underlying commodity price (even with some discount due to fees)
7977  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 04, 2015, 08:34:42 PM
My favorite ask of the day, $2.5MM per BTC Smiley

>snip url<
lol SEWN!!!

Everything is just a game.
How a stock that suppose to simply indicate 1/10 of bitcoin is trading at a 42% premium to the underlying?
7978  Economy / Speculation / Re: How SOON will the BTC rally begin? on: May 01, 2015, 01:50:29 AM
How about that it started yesterday or today (4/30/15) or, maybe in January 2015 at ~$170 bottom.
7979  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: May 01, 2015, 01:45:53 AM
I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices.
If that was the way they made investment decisions, then they would probably never have become accredited investors in the first place.

As a rule, poor people tend to make investment decisions based on a comparison of the current price versus the price at some point in the past, the date when they bought in.  If the price has gone down since they bought something, they tend to hold and wait for the price to go back up.  If it does finally start going up, they tend to sell, and feel happy if they managed to break even.

Most rich people do the exact opposite.  They make investment decisions based on what they predict the price will do in the future.  If an investment has done poorly, and they see no reason to believe that it is likely to turn around, they tend to "trim the dogs."  But when an investment starts rising, if they believe it will continue to rise, they will hold.

As a result, poor people tend to hold bad investments and sell good ones, while rich do the exact opposite, which explains why they are rich.  

So the question is not whether they are up or down, but whether they still believe the potential upside is greater than the potential downside.


how about when investment going up, then going down or going down, then going up? this happens all the time.
Based on this logic, all Apple investors in 1990-1996 should have sold, only to witness a tremendous run to 750 bil valuation in the next 18-19 years.
Most of biotechs start their life as absolute dogs: check out BIIB and PCYC (this one was $0.6 six years ago, sold in 2015 for >$250)

The first rule of Investment Club is that there are NO rules (that stand for a long time).
7980  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [ANN] Spondoolies-Tech - carrier grade, data center ready mining rigs on: April 29, 2015, 06:00:51 PM
Bitcoin's fatal flaw was that it employed a POW algorithm that was ASIC friendly. Its entire history has been described by, and its future predicted by this single fact.

Isn't it time we all moved on ?

Why is that a flaw? Have we encountered any problem because of it?

I think that within 2 years, the only people who will be able to get their hands on hardware to mine will be people who can actually manufacture the hardware themselves in China. I'd call that a developing problem.

I believe that without few thousands of miners, bitcoin will wither and die as majors (Bitfury, KnC, Bitmain and Spond/BTCS) will be starved of transactions to process.
Seriously, is there a coin that cannot be ASIC-mined AT ALL?
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