These several posts about potential harm to our dearest AlcoHoDL remind me of my going on a walk with my 14 kg doggie in mid-December 2020.  

We were walking along as usual (nearly a daily activity for us, rain, snow, shine or whatever), and I was probably distracted by looking at the bitcoin price on my phone, and pretty soon I looked up and I saw that my dog was about 20 feet in front of me and she was chewing on something brown/black/dark green (about the size of a fist), and I could not really determine what it was from that distance.. I tend to give a certain amount of scrounging latitude to doggie, and I was thinking that it was not completely unusual because sometimes we might come across ham bones or some other equally-sized objects that get the doggie's attention and don't really cause me to stop her from grabbing it or chewing it or even carrying it on our walk.  Keeps her occupied and seemingly content (excited to say the truth).

I picked up my pace a wee bit so that I could attempt to confirm what it was but I did not say anything to her, and then when I got within about 5 feet, I noticed that it was some kind of quasi-thick liquid within a clear plastic bag.. and more like a sock rather than a fist because the shape was maleable, but as I was getting ready to yell at her to drop it, she had already began the motions of a kind of gulp-swallow process, so by the time that I yelled at her and started to reach for her head and got close enough to attempt to grab it, she had already swallowed the whole thing in one successful gulp.

I thought: "oh shit. This situation cannot be good for a 14 kg doggie to eat a whole plastic bag that was decently large.. maleable but seemingly close to the size of a fist - at least the bag portion,"

About an hour later, when I arrived back at my computer, I looked upon the interwebs for what should be done in such circumstances.  The interwebs told me that this was potentially a quite urgent situation that could lead to many digestive doggie issues, potentially vomiting, lack of appetite and frequently doggie-death can come from plastic bag ingestion if such plastic bag were to not pass timely and could get caught inside the doggie.  

There were advisements to take doggie to vet in a timely manner.. and back up suggestions to watch the doggie for symptoms and see if the plastic bag might pass.  

I chose the later.  I continued to watch for negative digestive symptoms, changes in behaviors and even if the bag were to pass or come close to passing and then I could manually assist (if such thing were to occur).  5 months later still no baggie and really no problems with doggie, except a couple of months ago she had the runs for a few days - but I had the runs at around that same time, so I figured we may have encountered similar kinds of food?  even though she eats way more raunchie things than I would ever even dare to attempt to eat... dead birds and other animals on the street with maggots, dog shit and other seemingly repulsive and half eaten stuff..   the other day, I caught her eating almost a full bottle of mayonnaise that was on the street, so hard to imagine that being very good and of course, I am not even close to as digestively brave as she tends to be.

Anyhow, my moral of the story is that sometimes the worse case digestive scenarios do not end up playing out, which may be the case when eating a "do not eat" gel packettes which I have not done, nor have I given such packettes to my innocent lil doggie (nor caught her eating those) - but thinking that she may well eat it, especially if such little gels were mixed with jerky and if we were watching 101 Dalmatians on the big screen or if there were any other kind of savory meat (or fat for that matter) included in the mix.  

Maybe the gels could even force the lil plastic bag to get pushed out of her system (butt)?.. hahahahaha

Cartel surely does not seem to be a correct word to describe bitcoin mining.. even though there seemed to have been some common interest (resistance) in the 2017 forkening drama.. but even then the factual play out of those events do not really seem to rise to the level of cartel then, and maybe even less so now.

cartel just seems like a misleading term that exaggerates and hardly describes with very much accuracy.

I have heard that kind of nonsense previously - attempting to put limitations on how far that a dip can reasonably go before taking us out of a bull run.

Sounds like selectively choosing information bullshit to me, including the fact that we likely started this particular bullrun in April 2019, and we already had at least a couple of greater than 50% pullbacks.. seems to me that even a 60% pullback would not necessarily pull us out of this bull run.. so 60%--ish is surely within reason... to really purge some froth and shake some whiners... which would put us at around $26k.

Of course, for me, it seems that 60% would be a bit of a stretch - meaning NOT too likely, but there has been plenty of other NOT too likely price movements in bitcoin landia... through the years, and the mere fact that we have not had any real and meaningful shake out successes since August/September (around that last test of $10k), seems that there is potential fore quite a few purgenings of froth and shakening of whiners.


We are not going to necessarily know what others are doing - even though we will hear a lot of bullshit, yet a more important question would be what we are going to do?  If we already ran out of money to buy, then do we sell to get more money or do we just HODL.  Peeps going to come to differing conclusions regarding that because buying on the dip sounds all great in theory, but if you thought that 30% was going to be the max dip (and I heard a lot of that nonsense), then you are left with a wee bit of a dilemma whether to HODL or to take some other kinds of actions.. such as crying like a little girl.    


Sure it is possible, but seems to me, way too early to proclaim that, even if we were to get down to 60% correction.


Well at least you got that part right.


Or buy.


That sounds topical to current happenings...not that public opinion is going to really tell you what is going to happen beyond what peeps believe is going to happen.. which has a decent amount of history of being wwwwwrrrrroooooonnnnnnnggggg.



When I log into the forum newly or from a new location, there is a anti-bot captcha, but once I get passed the captcha, I tend to be able to stay logged in for a pretty damned long periods of time without being reprompted with the anti-bot captcha.. even on my phone... In other words, doesn't getting past the anti-bot captcha manually resolve the issue and chartbuddy just would stay online and post once an hour or so.. or if you believe that posting every hour (like it did previously) is too frequently, then it could post at another more comfortable interval (every 3 hours, reasonable?). but might end up missing some happenings.. and not really sure how much members would appreciate having that data embedded around their posts..

Again, do not recall coming across any meaningful objections to chartbuddy except from one member.



That may well be a justification for keeping chartbuddy hourly..

And fuck twitter...    but of course, you do what you like anyhow.   

I remember Dave Portnoy being the smartest guy in the room too, for about a minute, even though Portnoy sold at a loss, but even so, Musk could have potentially sold at a 10% or 20% profit or maybe even a wee bit greater numbers, and we have seen time and time again that those kinds of profits are for ants in bitcoinlandia.. even some folks who shave large portions after several x of UPpity end up looking bad when they are subsequently shown (by BTC price movements) to have sold too much too soon..., and then failing and refusing, for a long ass time, to buy back in because the price is way higher than their sell price(s).

Thanks... helpful that any of us can verify it or maybe even be better able to point something out to you if there might be something deficient about the information. 

I remember a year or maybe longer ago, there was some kinds of issues regarding the block times and even the mining hash that was shared by BCH and/or BSV.. and I remember that there were a few sources that I was looking at but they were not very consistent, and then after a while I realized that one source was better at one thing and another source was better at another thing, so I got some better ideas about which source I would cite for certain purposes...even though for sure, any of us can end up getting confused about the data that we might be looking at and then come to less than good conclusions (sometimes erroneous conclusions).


Hahahaha

Agreed.

That is part of the reason we should try not to get so much bothered by short term dynamics because shit always seem to happen, and if there is no ability to make it seem new and innovative or to have a certain decent level of believability, no one is going to panic, and surely many of us can recognize the lack logic and lack of facts to support Elon, and surely he may have bit off more than he can chew, but he seems to appear as if he has a lot of this under control, but even narcissists likely have some difficulties dealing with the level of their popularity when many of the interaction matters might not play out very close to what he had been anticipating.  I suppose time will tell.


Probably better stated than me.  Even though I am supposed to be mad at you, somac.  #nohomo.

We should recognize what Raoul Pal needs to be rammed with.

Bob?


Of course, this Raoul Pal guy comes off with the impression:  "I'm new to bitcoin, and I am here to fix it."

yeah right.  

He can fuck off.  That would be great.... and come back later when he is not trying to dictate who is who..,. bitcoin gives no shits whether peeps are nice or not nice... or whether peeps believe that there is a problem with the community or no.



I think that it is a good thing that bitcoin supporters (at least the more knowledgeable ones) will call out the vast majority of other projects as shit.. and part of the reason that they are shit is because there tend to be centralized entities and individuals printing tokens so they can benefit rather than pegging to bitcoin -- because bitcoin no is broken, in spite many claims of such.


Well..   from what I understand, Raoul Pal is coming around to bitcoin more and more, so at least he is starting to get the message that even if he does not believe in bitcoin, he better be hedging his bets otherwise bitcoin is going to eat his lunch.  No problem attempting to keep a foot in both camps.. because transition to more and more bitcoin is likely to take a long ass time anyway.. .. although maybe when we look back we will say "that escalated quickly" even though while we are going through the ups and downs of escalation, it is frequently not seeming so damned quickly... especially during correction periods (our current place).


This probably provides some evidence to the doubters that we are NOT quite ready for a supercycle.. but hey.. maybe some peeps are thinking that there will be, and I doubt that the world works like that and I doubt that status quo institutions are just going to roll over without at least a certain amount of fight both with financial tools if they can do that and with information wars too, if they can maintain some amount of credibility in propagating ideas that put bitcoin into doubt, at least to those who are less familiar with what really causes bitcoin to tick, and even some of us longer term bitcoiners will sometimes have our doubts, too... but hopefully we neither panic nor sell too much of our stash too soon because of our sometimes over receptivities to whatever new talking points are getting put out into the social media or wherever else such information is being propagated.

Oh my!!!!!!!!

This is getting REAL... peeps.

 

I agree with everything you said, dude.. except, it seems to me that there is no reason for bitcoiners to turn our backs to the current system.. or to teach newbies that is what bitcoin is about. 

Accordingly, it seems that sooner or later the vast majority of the current system are going to become coiners... they are just having some difficulties currently, in figuring out where the real value props are  (hint hint.. first name king.. second name daddy... hahahahaha).

FTFY... .

hahahahaha

But who's counting?


Surely when we are in the middle of a dump it is difficult to know when it is over.. sometimes an outrageously BIG wick will be an indicator, but it does not guarantee that it is over unless the recovery brings us a decent percentage out of striking distance of another test of support at the local bottom.

I hate making any proclamations, but there does seem to be ongoing momentum and dumping... bringing numbers back into view that quite a few HODLers might not had thought were possible - so they may have to rethink their level of conviction, etc. etc.  It would not be easy for some of them, especially if they were saying that they were "all in" at $59k or at $51k or at other locations such as $47k.  So, one of the tests of actual conviction does end up being the playing out of the BIG ASS correction and see what HODLers do.. And, if the price can be kept down long enough, sometimes additional sellers will come out of the woodwork and allow for additional eroding of support that previously considered as solid (or "no way in hell") territory.

Where's your source link, Sayeds56?


Wow.  in response to your post, Paashaas, I just looked up the current taproot signaling, and it kind of surprises me because it seems that the last time that I looked it up, maybe a day ago or so, it was in the lower 60s%

As I type, taproot watch is currently showing 84.06%.. .which is still getting real close to 90% which may be reachable this difficulty period.  

By the way, before looking up the matter, I had not realized that this difficulty period ONLY started a few days ago, and if 90% is not achieved this difficulty period, we seem to be better setting ourselves up for taproot to be signaling in the 90% plus arena in the next difficulty period which currently is projected to start around May 27/May 28 according to cryptothis.com.

I did not really have any problem with the ideas that you presented in that earlier post in terms of being composed of the various kinds of incentives that are being imposed and propagandized in various mainstream systems.  I do not claim to be any kind of expert on the topic, either, so maybe both of us are working out our ideas in terms of what could play out.  

Yet, in any event, I am still struggling with any kind of assumption that bitcoin miners would want to play that game when they likely do not have to.    Yeah, sure we have seen some virtual signaling from some miners from time to time including the one recently that asserted that it was OFAC compliant - to the extent that it is even possible to make such assertion and not to suffer some repercussions in bitcoinlandia...

But sure, there are all kinds of things that governments like and will likely attempt to push onto bitcoin, but they still might have a lot of challenges to get them into bitcoin's practices, procedures and decentralized incentives systems, and I am not even claiming that we can detach ourselves from various traditional banking rules  (not yet anyhow) so yeah, there might even be BIGGER battles in the future - and even though the environmental battle seems to currently working, it does not seem to be one that is going to play out well in terms of the truth of the matter asserted or even any kind of meaningful abilities to impose such bullshit on bitcoin because like I already said, bitcoin seems way the fuck more energy efficient than other systems, and sure some shitcoins like ethereum may want to proclaim that they are more energy friendly, but who fucking cares.. ethereum is just made up shit, anyhow, even assuming that they move to an even more made up system that they proclaim to be better than proof of work (referring to the proof of stake pump and dump shenanigans scam of course).


I don't see anything wrong or out of place by such a statement... and maybe part of the key of your point is that some of these matters take a while.. and I would also like to say that bitcoin is successful as fuck, like you seem to suggest, even if its price is quite low (such as $1), but I really doubt that it's price is going to be going to such low levels, even if all of the governments were to make it illegal (which is hardly a game theory that anyone with even half a brain should expect to even be within reasonable possibilities - even long shot possibilities).

Those are all possible, but I have a hard time giving very great odds to something like $24,472 playing out by June 21.. so sure we could have some ups and downs along the way and gosh grinding down to $24,472 in a bit over a month would be painful and likely shake a lot of weak hands. 

Just assuming that something like that could happen, I am not even sure if we would be out of the bullrun, and it could well set us up for a 2013 like scenario of a double top.  Not saying that the top of $64,895 might not already be in, but surely, there seem to be quite a few different scenarios of getting to new ATHs of supra $64,895 even if it were to take a few months to get back to that point.. even 5-6 months or so which would kind of mimic the 2013 price dynamics situation in terms of severity of dump and getting stuck lower and getting the reversal back up...   

But, yeah, we have a lot of this time is different, but still no one should really be able to deny that there remains a lot of froth to be shaken out - even though the shaking out can happen in a variety of ways, one of the easier ways might be to shake out by dumping everything "crypto" related rather than attempting to figure out which coin or project might have more froth than another.. and surely we could get some potential attacks on some of the chains too in order to exacerbate where ever we might be at this time. .but then also.. the bottom of $45,127 (as I type) could be in.. so there are a lot of scenarios, and I would not proclaim to know much of anything beyond 50/50 and even appreciating that there currently may well be down momentum, but we know that even existing states of down momentum can end up stopping at any time, whether there is a final wick or not.


Yeah.. but we are not in 2018 right now... where did you get that?

Your using a 3 year fractal or whatever the fuck you are doing is out of touch with dominant and credible BTC price prediction models..

So, if you can explain ur lil selfie, why you are using 3 years as your reference then maybe whatever you are suggesting might play out more convincingly.. but I am having a hard time with it, as you have framed our currently seeming price predicament.

I am not even saying that 40% plus of a correction is not off the table because we are already at 30%, but still that needs to be considered within the right framework, no?

I was cheering you on Farmer Bill, until you got to the point that Bitcoin miners are going to have any kind of meaningful incentive to playing  ball with carbon credit bullshit.  Sure there might be some bad faith miners that play that game, but I really doubt the vast majority of miners are going to give two shits or even less than that about bullshit ideas of carbon credit.

yeah, sure many of us realize that if BTC prices are at a premium, BTC miners probably give less than two shits about how much energy they are using, the kind of energy or how much it costs - as long as they are profitable - which seems to me that in recent times, there has been a lot of surplus in the profits of bitcoin miners.

Another thing that many of us recognize is that if (more likely when) profit margins in BTC mining turn more competitive, there are likely more incentives to search out cheaper energy sources, and BTC miners can be (and even have been) quite portable in that respect, which causes them to frequently seek out energy sources that might not otherwise be usable because of their distance from consumption sources or other inefficiencies that exist in regular markets and causing bitcoin mining to be amongst the most energy efficient of use cases, so the energy misinformation spreaders can fuck off with their opposite of true talking points that are attempting to mislead folks into nonsense theories like the one that you outlined above (no homo .. hahahahaha).


hahahaha

good luck with that.

Of course, he is not alone.. there are plenty of other anti-bitcoin dweebs out there who spout out nonsense or otherwise engage in bitcoin naysaying, nocoiner, shitcoin pumpening and fence sitting behaviors..,. Let's see how it plays out.  The next 6 hours (for those of you who don't know how to zoom out a wee bit (not including you in this, LFC) are critical^tm.


Exactamente!!!


That would be interesting, if it were to happen.

I doubt bitcoin gives any shits.. even if there may well be a short-term negative impact on BTC prices and even weak-handed peeps who decide to part their lil selfies from their bitcoin based on such manipulations and FUD... and so anyone who has fewer bitcoin when we return to $64,895 (assuming that we do at some point) based on this kind of crap deserves staying poor.

What if it goes down to $30k or even $15k?  Are you prepared for that?  Not saying that it is going to happen, but I really am serious in saying that peeps need to prepare for scenarios in both directions, even extreme and unlikely scenarios.. I am not saying to put a lot of preparation in the more extreme scenarios, but suggesting that the bottom is in or even that BTC prices could not quickly get cut in half seems like a wee bit of betting too much on one side - even if the odds remain that we remain in a bullmarket and also the odds remain that there are limitations of amount and length of time in terms of corrections, ... anyhow... maybe I am repeating myself a bit.. and I am not disagreeing to buying at this point, I just get a bit triggered when peeps are talking about "all" and then even relying on an authority like theymos (nothing against theymos or his recent decent short-term price analysis).


You are trying to say that you were right?

I suppose that might well be good if you played some kind of strategy that ended  up working for you.  I have no problem with my strategy that I have been playing since late 2013 and that has been revised from time to time along the way according to my various further thoughts or accounting for any changes in circumstances that might be relevant along the way.

At this point, I cannot see any reasons for me to reconsider any of my previous comments to the extent that they matter at this point in time or that I might feel that I would change them now?  Are there any specific comments that you would like to redirect me, and maybe I will double down..?   

As far as I am concerned soothsayer wanna bees can fuck off to the extent that they are posturing their lil selfies in such direction, and I hardly even remember any exact context of what we had been discussing.. so did you have more that you wanted to point out to the extent that subsequent events makes it more relevant now than it did during our earlier back and forths.

By the way, if you have never gotten any kind of real sense for my position on a variety of topics related to bitcoin or portfolio management or whatever, I frequently assert that guys need to figure out ways to prepare their lil selfies for price movements in either direction, even extreme price movements.  At this point (with an approaching of a 30% correction from the April 17 $64,895 top), we are still no fucking where close to extreme circumstances.. at least from my current perspective.. and as I type this post, it appears that support in the 30% correction range at $45,501 is currently being tested.. and I even said in a recent post that we could get another 50% or more correction from here (oh.. it's my above post responding to shahzadafzal that is above this one.. so far a BIG whatevers from what I see so far)...

Wow..

$210 per week and about $11k per year.  I like it.  Maybe not necessarily for a person like you, but it does show what peeps might reasonably be able to do and even in a kind of aggressive way to accumulate BTC..and gosh there are likely peeps who could well afford $11k per year, even though a bit too spendy for others... but still I would say that peeps in the $50k to $100k per income level may well be able to consider something approaching $11k per year .. and juggling around some of their priorities.

How far should we look back to consider past performance?  For some strange reason, I kind of have a inclination for 7 years, and if we look at it, we see that $30 per day would have resulted in nearly $77k invested and nearly 88BTC valued at about $5.16 million. 

Of course the magnitude of past performance cannot be guaranteed into the future, but there should be no reason to doubt that bitcoin still remains as amongst the best (if not the actual best) of choices of current investment options, so in that regard $11k per year and at $30 per day should still have decent odds in 7 years... who the fuck knows if it will look good in 1 year or even less than 4 years.. and even that is not guaranteed in terms of shorter time horizons, so yeah, it can be a bit degenerate to either be psychologically or financially depending on such money in less than 4 years.. and surely a longer timeline does tend to be better.. so yeah, probably beyond some other various degenerate aspects that might be read into your (Bob's) situation from some of the facts that we know, I would suggest that if anyone is either psychologically or financially expecting positive returns in a year or anything less than 4 years for any new money that is being injected into bitcoin, then surely they are being a wee bit degenerate in their current thinking.. but surely I am also not suggesting that anyone investing into bitcoin on a 4-10year minimum horizon would necessarily be locked into HODL or whatever, especially if their holdings are in profits on a shorter time frame and they want to shave off some profits or even sell the whole thing for whatever discretionary considerations that they likely have, including accounting for the totality of their own personal financial and psychological circumstances.


Even though that website uses the word crypto, I don't really agree with your parroting such crypto reference.. but otherwise I agree with the overall point that you seem to be making....  and thanks for the link..... that is currently showing fear of 20 which is a pretty BIG ASS and sharp decline from last week's greed of 73....  (of course pointed out by AlcoHoDL as my slow pokie lil selfie was typing this).... interesante...   hahahahaha

I did mean BNB in terms of asking you where it fit in your categorizations.

You might be correct that it becomes a bit too complicated in terms of creating justifications for separating out Ethereum but not separating out some other shitcoins.  I would think that there have been 4 years or more that ethereum has been referred to as the ONLY shitcoin worthy of investment because of its networking effects of having a multitude of scams built upon it, but even that might be a bit of a moving target too.. so, personally, I do not really care too much if you were to separate ethereum out or just leave your references as is...

In recent times, ethereum has gotten up to .08-ish of a bitcoin.. and as I type it is around .076, and even with that, we have largely seen ethereum grow in price (relative to bitcoin) in the past year or more but with very steep uptrend in the past month or less, so surely we have been hearing nonsense about the impending flippening which would increase, in the event that ethereum continues to increase in price relative to bitcoin (if that is even feasible?).  Of course, in the 2017 flippening hysteria, we ended up witnessing around a .115 peak of the etherum to  BTC price and it was getting close to flippening bitcoin, at least temporarily, so whether or not flippening actually ends up happening - and we know anything remains possible in these here parts, there are probably a decent number of peeps (especially ethheads) who are concerned about that metric that I largely consider to be lacking in relevance, even though I expect that it could become a talking point in the near future if either ethereum is able to sustain its current price relative to bitcoin or if it were to continue to rise in price relative to bitcoin.

So, maybe I am sorry to have raised the topic, even though that is kind of the rationale behind my having had brought it up.

What a fucking gooftard.  

Bitcoin seems to be going down.. but at the same time, it may not.. at the same time the bottom may well have been reached.  What are the odds one direction or another in the short term?  perhaps 50/50?  You think that in the short term that the odds that bitcoin going down more in the future is greater than 50/50.. of course, you do that is why you posted your panicking nonsense... but whatever, do what you gonna do and hope for the best.

By the way, even though usually I do not go too far beyond 5% deviation from 50/50 in the short term, I can appreciate that guys might even go 10% or even as seemingly crazy ass as 15% beyond 50/50 for the short term, but that still would not seem to be any kind of reason to be fucking around with various shitcoins.. but whatsevers.. peeps gonna do what they are gonna do.. and maybe they will get lucky and maybe not.


Here's how I would improve your post.


#justsaying



The reaction that peeps want to get out of you is the creation of some kind of a long term plan.  Of course, if you are really fucked up in terms of your finances and you cannot even afford to put $10 week in bitcoin to start out, then you should get that shit in order first.  You should not be putting anything into bitcoin, if you might end up having to dip into the bitcoin in the next 4 to 10 years.. so in that regard, you may well not be able to start $10 per week right away because times are that dire and desperate for you.

Of course, it is quite difficult to evaluate the specifics of a dweeb like you because you are not really giving any specifics beyond asserting that times are dire for you, yet in a large number of circumstances in real life, I have found that even peeps in the most dire of circumstances are failing and refusing to take certain actions to either cut their costs or increase their income in order to get their finances in order.  

I am not even suggesting that all debt should be paid before getting into bitcoin, but sometimes that guarantee of paying some high interest debt (if such exists) might end up being a better investment than bitcoin.. at least in the short term until you get some of your shit together.

You are really difficult to believe, eXPHorizon, but if you were to provide some more specifics about your situation, we might be able to figure out some ways for you to help yourself.  I doubt anyone is going to want to send you any bitcoin, but there are surely peeps way more generous on the interwebs than me (and you are seeming to want to play that), and I am not really trying to advise you how to be a better freeloader/scammer, but giving some details about your specifics might end up helping your cause to some extent.. and hopefully, you would not be making shit up.. but I would NOT put it past you, including your stupid-ass previous claim that you lost all your BTC at gox.. blah blah blah.  trying to imply that you are a long time bitcoiner when you probably are just bouncing from one scam attempt to the next.. so you are likely just a big so what potato  (nothing against potatos).  


Today's $10 does not go very far.. so maybe asking for $50 in real life could help to make ends meet?  Some people might want to get paid back.  But if you (referring to eXPHorizon) seem that you are busting your butt in a variety of ways, some folks might be willing to pay you $50 for helping them on a project that would otherwise only be worth $20... and it ends up as a kind of giving more than you deserve because you are creating a good impression that you are working to get ur lil selfie out of the bad situation.  

It's not easy.. that's for sure... and sometimes when in a bad situation, just a lot of getting yourself out there is probably a good thing.. sending resumes and things like that.. I have not been there for a while (probably a bit over 20 years), so I am not so sure about the asking side of things on a personal level.... but I know that sometimes if I am seeking the help of other persons, I will pass the word around to friends and then try to look for various ways that they might be advertising themselves.  

I recall hiring a Uber driver for a 3-4 day project that started out from one ride and led to a later meeting and considerations of compatibility and then hiring him for further work... and those kinds of interactions seem to happen..sometimes in the real world, but sometimes the match might start online, too.. so not saying that online interactions are a waste of time because there might be situations (probably not a thread like this, so much) in which online interactions might lead to a meeting and might lead to income too... people go to conferences too.. (yes might be costly), but could result in decent amounts of networking too that leads to income.. perhaps?

To me, it seems a better descriptor to use the word "shit" rather than altcoin.. otherwise some potentially innocent peeps might be mislead into believing that there might be some value in those various non-bitcoin projects.

By the way @bryant.coleman, quite frequently I am getting into battles with various other members who become quite adamant in their beliefs that CMC has some kind of considerable meaning - and I really downplay the importance of it (I am not the only person with this idea), so I probably should not be the one bringing this up.  I am wondering if Ethereum (kind of the shitcoins) were to be separated out of the altcoin category of your list.  I know that it becomes more complicated, so maybe I would regret even answering. Of course, these last couple of weeks Doge has gotten a lot of appreciation, so maybe it can be a bit complicated to separate out any particular coin, such as ETH.  There was also a lot of appreciation of BNB in recent times, and is BNB in the Alt category rather than the stable coin category, right?

It surely seems to be a bit of a dilemma fillippone, especially for someone who either does not have an outside cashflow already established to be able to attempt to spend a lot of time on bitcoin related matters and other stuff and not be wanting to attempt to monetize their time spent to some extent.  I tend to recommend a variety of self-help mechanisms, and I also tend to be weary about purported experts - even when I am forced to consult with them - and not even saying that they are not necessarily very knowledgeable in their field if they do it full time, but there might also be a variety of vehicles that they employ to keep their clients dependent upon them rather than providing self-help kinds of knowledge.

I understand also that there are some clients that might just say fuck it.  The fee is cheap enough (whether it is .5% per annum or up to 2%) that they might feel that it is well worth the fee - even though the higher the fee, the more difficult it will be to justify continuing with the use of such services, in the event that the advisor is custodying or the consulting is for one-shot time frames and perhaps flat fees?

Financial managers likely need to employ a variety of complicated financial instruments to establish to their clients that they are "doing something" even if some clients might realize that in the whole scheme of thing (including after the fees) their portfolio may well not be doing better than if they self directed into an index fund, and surely bitcoin should be providing further justifications that such complicated instruments are not necessary because on average bitcoin even outperforms the best of the prior investments (index funds), and so whether I personally am correct or not, I do not give too many shits, but many times when peeps are talking about a variety of sophisticated instruments, I still continue to assert one of the best places to start (especially in bitcoin) is to get your basics down, and in the longer term - (such as 4 years or longer - might take 10 years perhaps), your financial portfolio will quite likely outperform your having had employed a variety of other financial instruments into such investments.  

So for me, getting the basics straight is a starting point, but it is NOT necessarily exclusive, especially if some peeps might feel that they have more time, then they might experiment with other financial instruments to attempt to complement their approach once they have assured that they got their basics straight, whether that is the use of futures, options, leverage, margin, shorts, etc.. some of them are easier to learn about and to figure out how to use than others...

And, yeah it seems to me that each financial instrument that is employed, there is a possibility that the investor is magnifying the risk, even though the instrument is meant to allow for the lessening of risk, if it is used properly... and another trade off could be that the employment of some of the financial instruments ends up taking away some of the upside profit potential because it ends up betting in both directions - which may or may not be needed in my thinking, so for example, when I got into bitcoin, I already had a significant amount of investment already into a variety of traditional investments that were largely dollar based.  So, I had already figured that my bitcoin investment was already a hedge against that, and so even if I ended up accumulating a relatively decent amount of value in bitcoin, it still was not as large as my various dollar based investments - even though through the years - because of bitcoin's value appreciation relative to the dollar became so much larger and larger portions of my overall value and even outgrew the dollar-related appropriated investments, which at that point justified that I should attempt to take some measures within my BTC holdings to attempt to ameliorate some of the downside risk within the BTC portion (because its value became so great).  

Of course, if someone is coming into investment, and they have no other investments besides bitcoin, then it could be prudent to actually consider hedging mechanisms right from the start... I doubt that I am really good at speaking to that.. but I do understand that the various mechanisms that I already discussed, including considerations of futures, might thereby become more relevant to a person in such a financial/psychological circumstance.

Hopefully I am not derailing your thread too much when it comes to attempting to consider basics before even considering whether futures might be a good thing for normies to attempt to employ...which seems to be part of the point that I am trying to make .. in a kind of long-winded way.

By the way.. in my response above, I fixed the quotes in fillippone's post to clarify which comments were from icopress - otherwise it may well appear that fillippone is merely talking to himself.. which might happen from time to time, but not in this particular case.. hahahahaha

The vast majority of us in this thread are not participating herein in order to give away bitcoins to losers.. especially losers who failed and refused to engage in reasonable and prudent behavior.. or even the mere basics, like a small amount invested on a regular ongoing basis.

Maybe you can describe your efforts into investing into bitcoin in the past 7 years, and sure, maybe you did not start 7 years ago, but instead you started 3 years ago because it took you a few years to figure it out .. maybe even seeing the 2017 BTC price performance situation..

So sure, maybe we could assume that you did not have very much money, so you started your $10 per week investment into bitcoin 3 years ago, rather than 7 years ago.

Sure you would not be rich, but you would be on your way to .2BTC, and you would have about a 6x return on your investment... surely not bad and not a bad place to be in order to build the base of your financial future.  Getting rich or comfortable tends to take a long ass time, especially if you are starting from being poor and it could take 30-40 years, and sure with bitcoin you could well get a bit more lucky and cut that in half, but getting rich and/or comfortable does not come easily to anyone who might be starting with lower levels of cash flow or maybe some other bad financial/personal situations.. but bitcoin surely gives way more of a fighting chance than traditional investments... but you gotta get your shit together and get started.. rather than failing and refusing to act (beyond mere begging).

What I am saying is get the fuck started.. and yeah, if you have been fucking around, then maybe you need to attempt to be more aggressive with your investment plan and strategy and practices...  without devolving into gambling or begging... you dweeb.




The odds of us being in 2018 rather than in some kind of mid-ish area of 2017 seems quite a stretch of logic, so I am not even sure why you are mentioning 2018 in this context unless you are unable to focus.

Snap out of it... somac.

 




Sure, we could have a 2013 like scenario.. so maybe you are making up for your dumbass / ill-thought-out (granted that you were thinking) comment above.    Still something is a bit wrong about the assertion of a 2013 scenario because in 2013, we had a quicky up and a quicky down.. and we do not have any kind of quickie down here so far.. and even if we were to get some kind of quickie short term down from here.. like we had in the last of the late 2018 downturn in November that then stayed down for a few months, then perhaps a scenario like that could bring us into something that kind of resembles a 2013 double top kind of scenario.

Even though I may well be attempting to bust your balls a bit somac (to the extent that you might have balls), I could surely appreciate a possibility of a few differing kinds of scenarios in which the bitcoin peak of this particular cycle ends up playing out over a longer time that stretches past the 2021 calendar year and even as far as 3rd quarter 2022.. which would seem like a stretch.. but possible.

In any event, I doubt that your analysis regarding what the head might do is assisted by talking about the tail.. so there is that as well that seems to be foggifying your analytical (if we venture so far as to label it as that) approach to bitcoins current price dynamics or its future possible price trajectory(ies).


Get the fuck out of here, Phillip - with your making up shit that does not fit any kind of reasonableness beyond what you would like to see in terms of your also failing and refusing to account for actual currently valid BTC price prediction models.... except that your end number of $400k is reasonable.. way more reasonable than the low ball number (wasn't it sub $100k) that you were providing earlier (about a year ago or less you were saying that) for this particular cycle.

Anyhow, late 2016 and early 2017, BTC was just barely crossing over the previous ATH of $1,163... In this particular case, we crossed over the previous ATH in December 2020.. so you need a bit more discussion regarding how we are supposedly in late 2016 or early 2017 -even if your final number ended up seeming to be a reasonable target and maybe even a wee bit on the overly optimistic side.. and I am not complaining about that number.. that's for sure.


What did you say?

You suggested that the bottom for this correction might have been in?  

Likely you need to stop watching short term candles because they hardly mean shit... or as I type I realize that maybe you were talking about your earlier reference to shitcoins.. which is fucking irrelevant here anyhow... and probably even irrelevant in all aspects of life, except that you feel some kind of connection to that nonsense, yet in the end, why the fuck you want to stubbornly make references to that nonsense here?  .. .it is difficult enough already to try to figure out what bitcoin might do in the short term and even makes matters worse if you want to continue to try to bring (or make vague-ass references to) illiquid and irrelevant crap into the discussion.