At this moment


1- Philipma1957=====>1BTC
2- Ziploc=========> 1BTC
3- jacobmayes94 ===> 0.29BTC
4- Solare
5- wmtomlinso
6-jxz===========>1BTC
7-dtmcnamara
8-PrivacyBTC======>1BTC

As for the odds I would rather be above 50% either way by increasing the speed or hash time...but it's just me....

If I have to ditch 1BTC...I'm as much add 0.3-0.4 and get 13-15%....




but here again I can't do this alone and need your input, thoughts.....


also Phil what's the max number of participants you can manage (without too much headache)....
10 it's an easy number...

but maybe we can't get that much and/or we might get more if the shares are cheaper......?

I think we have to do it as simple as possible for Phil to manage...

that's also why I had a tendency to get fixed rate and not shopping around and waiting because then it becomes hard to follow



I suggest

1- we fix the speed and time Phil seem to want 500TH and time according to price/GH
2- we figure out CK and Phil fee (or as he said tips might be discretionary) but I would rather count this upfront and deduct right away from reward if we hit a block/blocks
3- we get the people (share) in (1 may get 2 shares or more, etc. for example if we decide 1BTC and someone wants more he can pay 2 and get twice participation but it can only be a multiple of 1 share)
4- we might adjust then the length and or time , or lower share cost for those who can't contribute as much
5- we divide the cost equally and send money to Phil
6- if we hit, Phil divides the reward equally per person

it's not started yet...and we have to send him funds before.....

That would be more than 60Hrs of hash ?

I added the odds i as I see them..it's easier for me to understand that way....about 34,75% chances to hit a block..a bit more because I think it would actually be 63hrs..then 36%

my hash Peta   network hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
      
0.5                           518                60   34.74903475
                                                     63     36.48648649


and the cost

500TH @ 0.0076
        HRS   BTC
        72    11.4
        60    9.5
        48   7.6
        36   5.7
        24   3.8
        12   1.9

my hash Peta   network hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
      
3.5                           518                1            4.054054054
                                                  2                8.108108108
                                                  4                16.21621622
                                                  8                32.43243243
                                                 12                48.64864865
                                                 18                72.97297297
                                                 24                97.2972973
                                                 36                145.9459459
                                                 48                194.5945946


*************************************


hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
         
1      1   1.158301158
      2   2.316602317
      4   4.633204633
      8   9.266409266
      12   13.8996139
      18   20.84942085
      24   27.7992278
      36   41.6988417
      48   55.5984556

************************************************


0.5  1   0.579150579
      2   1.158301158
      4   2.316602317
      8   4.633204633
      12   6.94980695
      18   10.42471042
      24   13.8996139
      36   20.84942085
      48   27.7992278
                60   34.74903475

that look like a great plan...but before I still would like to make more calcs for all to be clear....and maybe choose 600 or 700 or 300 for longer period...

I like to have these options....if you don't mind and I believe others too


and how for the run ?

That's the plan...but before talking reward we should figure out the risk and odds....as much as we can

Ok that's what I was looking for

Thx for correcting me

Thx for reconsidering I appreciate that

FULLY AGREE and I would like that too....but at some point it will become impossible as you stated before ....more hash power you buy you pull the price up


at that price you might get 100TH within a week....but if we want 500TH (I say wee but this would have to be agreed by all) then what do we do ?
lower odds ?
Increase time ?
Increase cost ?
or abandon ?

we all know that 500TH have more odds than 100TH......
but there again at what price ?


what I want to do is try to find a compromise in all this in a logical manner....that's what I called the sweet spot

Ok lets pursue:


total network speed:         518 Peta
Blocks/24hrs:                   148

That means:                     3.5peta / block / 24hrs            (518/148)

but each:                         3.5peta is about 0.0067 of the total speed (0.67%)          (3.5/518)
then each 3,5                   have 0.67% chances to hit a block within 24hrs that's less than 1%


are this right ?

can someone check if I'm not mistaking ?

why ? did I said that i didn't accept your numbers ?

You called my logic a ''magical thinking or gambler's fallacy"
I showed that yours is the same.....in essence.....and past luck doesn't guarantee the future

Can't accept a polite adult discussion...??


I'm not deciding anything alone...just trying to explain all aspects involved....
because I truly believe that there's a threshold which makes it all more appealing or pointless

the decision is everyone's....and for sure you would have a word because you were supposed to run this....

and as I said before the risk will be always there and if explained well everyone can make their own decision



anw I will try to simplify my thoughts and I hope you will reconsider....

sure

but here again i came from assumption that many people here, including me, are renting some hash: 150,300,or so TH and try their luck even if the adds are against them...

but if you combine....the odds might increase...but the reward if hit would be lower too because spread among participants...

I'm still thinking about it but it's hard to figure it out..

so far I have this variables:


1- hash speed
2- time
3- cost
4- probabilities of hashspeed to hit block within a certain fixed period of time (now it takes on avg 3,3peta for 1 block every 24hrs)

they work together and

we want
-4 to be as high as possible
-3 as low as possible


but
if you increase 1 and 2, 4 goes up as well (like 3,3peta for 24hrs)
but if not enough 4 will go down (like 3,3peta for 12hrs) or (1peta for 24hrs) or (10peta for 10min)


then you might increase 1 and lower 2 and/or vice versa to keep 3 fixed.....and this also will have a negative or positive influence on 4


does this make sense ?
So far I have hard time to put on a graph

Philli


don't want to argue but if you take the things literally, you're gambling to.....because of the nature of mining itself....you might never hit a block...or 1 in 5 years which isn't possible neither because in the mean time with the difficulty and halving your INVESTING ODDS will fall.....or you might hit 5 blocks...


that being said I think if you increase the amount of hash and the time your odds are increasing....the point is at what cost....and what cost would be acceptable...

like I said renting 150Th for a day doesn't even make mathematical sense because on avg it takes at least 3,3Peta to find a block within 24hrs....


there's always a gambling aspect if you want to call it that way....but with a possibility to grab an important part of the network hash rate the odds are indeed increasing...


you're simply thinking ROI...but with solo mining it doesn't apply..in a pool that pays for every share yes...but not solo...




there always be some risk involved the question is how much is acceptable for all

same for
rented hash rate and time VS cost of the rental.....

and if you plot these 2 together I thing they will cross.....but maybe i'm wrong...

let me work on a that a bit I will check it out with bitcoinwisdom

I'm not just talking btc/GH....and not contesting your calc...

but at your target price it would be very difficult to find such amount of hash....



I'm talking:

is it better to have:

100TH for 3 days or
500TH for 0.75 day or
1peta for a day and so on



and


it's better to spend 1BTC even if it's above 0.0073 and get what you want from above..or
1 BTC lower than 0073 and get it in chunks of smaller hash....


In essence I would try to make a graph of
1 line ( probability of finding a block vs hash power )
2nd line (time vs cost)

Those would have to cross somewhere.....then you have your sweet spot....

and you start planning from there......how much BTC you need, How many participants, etc. and which odds are acceptable...


Like I rented 1,7Peta for 10min....but it was pure gambling and waste of BTC.....however I wanted to learn how it works and if it was possible to get that kind of hash and if it would be sustainable...



anyone follows me here ?

sweet spot:


hashrate vs time and probabilities of finding a block vs investment

if I could make Kano calc work I might try to do a graphic to try to find the sweet spot...

I think that we have to take into consideration the difficulty that is rising by 5% every time now....
and BTC price...higher it goes more expensive is the hash...


also why 600TH ?
did you choose by hash power or you wanted a specific duration 27hrs ?

at 600TH it should take on avg 5,5 days to hit a block....
and 27hrs is about 1/5.....which give us avg odds of 20%....