[∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining USA/DE 255 blocks solved!

[philipma1957]

not going to do this.

Ziploc  we have different methods of approaching mining.  I wish you goo luck bro.

why ? did I said that i didn't accept your numbers ?

You called my logic a ''magical thinking or gambler's fallacy"
I showed that yours is the same.....in essence.....and past luck doesn't guarantee the future

Can't accept a polite adult discussion...??


I'm not deciding anything alone...just trying to explain all aspects involved....
because I truly believe that there's a threshold which makes it all more appealing or pointless

the decision is everyone's....and for sure you would have a word because you were supposed to run this....

and as I said before the risk will be always there and if explained well everyone can make their own decision

we have a different belief on what is gambling and what is not gambling.

if you play a 3 digit number and get paid 975 to 1 that is gambling
if you play a 3 digit number and get paid 1025 to 1 that is not gambling.

you don't agree with that.
 you said both are gambling.
you said you are willing to overpay for rentals.

I am not in agreement with that.

I would like to think both of us agree that 1 + 1 = 2

or that 1+1+1+1+1+1 = 5

If we could not agree to that math spitting the winnings could be a big problem.

So far you and I have not been able to agree on overpayment of hash vs correct payment of hash.
this below is what I think is correct

right now in this round

.0074 or higher  is overpayment .-----  bad odds
.0073 or lower is under payment ------ good odds

do you agree to this statement?

[PrivacyBTC]

Want to join a group
1 btc available

[Ziploc]

Ok lets pursue:


total network speed:         518 Peta
Blocks/24hrs:                   148

That means:                     3.5peta / block / 24hrs            (518/148)

but each:                         3.5peta is about 0.0067 of the total speed (0.67%)          (3.5/518)
then each 3,5                   have 0.67% chances to hit a block within 24hrs that's less than 1%


are this right ?

can someone check if I'm not mistaking ?

[Ziploc]

.0074 or higher  is overpayment .-----  bad odds
.0073 or lower is under payment ------ good odds

do you agree to this statement?

Thx for reconsidering I appreciate that

FULLY AGREE and I would like that too....but at some point it will become impossible as you stated before ....more hash power you buy you pull the price up


at that price you might get 100TH within a week....but if we want 500TH (I say wee but this would have to be agreed by all) then what do we do ?
lower odds ?
Increase time ?
Increase cost ?
or abandon ?

we all know that 500TH have more odds than 100TH......
but there again at what price ?


what I want to do is try to find a compromise in all this in a logical manner....that's what I called the sweet spot

[ezeminer]

Ok lets pursue:


total network speed:         518 Peta
Blocks/24hrs:                   148

That means:                     3.5peta / block / 24hrs            (518/148)

but each:                         3.5peta is about 0.0067 of the total speed (0.67%)          (3.5/518)
then each 3,5                   have 0.67% chances to hit a block within 24hrs that's less than 1%


are this right ?

can someone check if I'm not mistaking ?

If you run it for 24hours, the numbers come out to 97%, just because you have 144 chances on average in that 24 hours.

Code:

(Your Hashrate / Network Hashrate) * 144 * ( X Hours Running Hash / 24 hours in a day ) = Probability of Hitting a Block Within X hours Based on Average Network Block Prooduction

[Ziploc]

If you run it for 24hours, the numbers come out to 97%, just because you have 144 chances on average in that 24 hours.

Code:

(Your Hashrate / Network Hashrate) * 144 * ( X Hours Running Hash / 24 hours in a day ) = Probability of Hitting a Block Within X hours Based on Average Network Block Prooduction

Ok that's what I was looking for

Thx for correcting me

[jacobmayes94]

If it happened to find more than 1 block it would still be shared around equally to every investor proportional to what they put in?

Jacob

[philipma1957]

.0074 or higher  is overpayment .-----  bad odds
.0073 or lower is under payment ------ good odds

do you agree to this statement?

Thx for reconsidering I appreciate that

FULLY AGREE and I would like that too....but at some point it will become impossible as you stated before ....more hash power you buy you pull the price up


at that price you might get 100TH within a week....but if we want 500TH (I say wee but this would have to be agreed by all) then what do we do ?
lower odds ?
Increase time ?
Increase cost ?
or abandon ?

we all know that 500TH have more odds than 100TH......
but there again at what price ?


what I want to do is try to find a compromise in all this in a logical manner....that's what I called the sweet spot

okay this is why the internet makes for fights. if you type too loong no one wants to read it all.

 So  we go short and no one understands each other


Sweet spot has many meanings but I also agree with that particular definition.

When I ran these in June  the winning run was 10 guys 1 btc each.

two 500th orders one on nicehash one on westhash.  went to sleep.  one order fully ran out over night and the order froze due to being out bid.

ck mentioned no one ever won with 1ph running  so we broke the remaining 4.7 coins into 5 100th orders two on nicehash and 3 on westhash

the nice hash was at correct price at the time say .0099  the west hash was at over price say .0101  we hit two blocks in three hours.



if we do this.  with  5 guys at 1 btc each I can run 10

50th orders 5 at nicehash and 5 at westhash

2 would be fixed  at .0076

the others would be looking to get good prices like .0070  to .0073

 i usually do all the work with pricing I send everyone  screen shot of the orders to show I spent the coins mining for us.

when we won the ten of us had all put up 1 btc we hit 2 blocks so we each got 5 coins or 1/10

after that I ran a few more and realized 5 guys at 1 coin each was better but I did get a bit tired doing it. as fighting for best prices is work. and just doing all fixed is costly.  right now fixed is .0076 and best price is .0072

[Ziploc]

If it happened to find more than 1 block it would still be shared around equally to every investor proportional to what they put in?

Jacob

That's the plan...but before talking reward we should figure out the risk and odds....as much as we can

[Ziploc]

okay this is why the internet makes for fights. if you type too loong no one wants to read it all.

 So  we go short and no one understands each other

that look like a great plan...but before I still would like to make more calcs for all to be clear....and maybe choose 600 or 700 or 300 for longer period...

I like to have these options....if you don't mind and I believe others too


and how for the run ?

[Ziploc]

my hash Peta   network hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
      
3.5                           518                1            4.054054054
                                                  2                8.108108108
                                                  4                16.21621622
                                                  8                32.43243243
                                                 12                48.64864865
                                                 18                72.97297297
                                                 24                97.2972973
                                                 36                145.9459459
                                                 48                194.5945946


*************************************


hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
         
1      1   1.158301158
      2   2.316602317
      4   4.633204633
      8   9.266409266
      12   13.8996139
      18   20.84942085
      24   27.7992278
      36   41.6988417
      48   55.5984556

************************************************


0.5  1   0.579150579
      2   1.158301158
      4   2.316602317
      8   4.633204633
      12   6.94980695
      18   10.42471042
      24   13.8996139
      36   20.84942085
      48   27.7992278
                60   34.74903475

[philipma1957]

If it happened to find more than 1 block it would still be shared around equally to every investor proportional to what they put in?

Jacob

That's the plan...but before talking reward we should figure out the risk and odds....as much as we can

the odds are pretty easy if we get close to .0073   just divide 25btc by 5 btc    our  chance  is really close to 5 to 1 for 1 block  for 2 blocks 5 to 1 x 5 to 1 is 25 to 1 for 3 blocks x 5 is 625 to one.

that 5 to 1 is based on that fact that at .0073 we are really close to actual odds

if you pay 10% more then .0073  say .0080  your 5 to 1 drifts to 5.5 to one a 10% increase  and the pay off is 25 to 5 or 5 to one thus 'bad' odds

if you pay .0066 (not going to happen) the odds are 4.5 to one and you get paid  25 to 5  thus 'good odd'

by sitting on nicehash a lot I can get close to the correct odds or wait.  this kind of why I finally stopped  doing it as many others were renting and prices sometimes got high. so waiting for hash got longer.

[Ziploc]

That would be more than 60Hrs of hash ?

I added the odds i as I see them..it's easier for me to understand that way....about 34,75% chances to hit a block..a bit more because I think it would actually be 63hrs..then 36%

my hash Peta   network hash Peta   hrs run   Odds hit Block %
      
0.5                           518                60   34.74903475
                                                     63     36.48648649


and the cost

500TH @ 0.0076
        HRS   BTC
        72    11.4
        60    9.5
        48   7.6
        36   5.7
        24   3.8
        12   1.9

[PrivacyBTC]

Hi philipma1957
Can you run 2 groups if you got more than 5 persons ?
also It's better to start now or we wait until new race after current block was resolved ?

Im ready to join if there's a slot for me

[Ziploc]

Hi philipma1957
Can you run 2 groups if you got more than 5 persons ?
also It's better to start now or we wait until new race after current block was resolved ?

Im ready to join if there's a slot for me

it's not started yet...and we have to send him funds before.....

[jacobmayes94]

how many people are in currently?

I am in with 0.29BTC which is all I have in my wallet atm.

Jacob

[Ziploc]

I think we have to do it as simple as possible for Phil to manage...

that's also why I had a tendency to get fixed rate and not shopping around and waiting because then it becomes hard to follow



I suggest

1- we fix the speed and time Phil seem to want 500TH and time according to price/GH
2- we figure out CK and Phil fee (or as he said tips might be discretionary) but I would rather count this upfront and deduct right away from reward if we hit a block/blocks
3- we get the people (share) in (1 may get 2 shares or more, etc. for example if we decide 1BTC and someone wants more he can pay 2 and get twice participation but it can only be a multiple of 1 share)
4- we might adjust then the length and or time , or lower share cost for those who can't contribute as much
5- we divide the cost equally and send money to Phil
6- if we hit, Phil divides the reward equally per person

[Ziploc]

As for the odds I would rather be above 50% either way by increasing the speed or hash time...but it's just me....

If I have to ditch 1BTC...I'm as much add 0.3-0.4 and get 13-15%....




but here again I can't do this alone and need your input, thoughts.....


also Phil what's the max number of participants you can manage (without too much headache)....
10 it's an easy number...

but maybe we can't get that much and/or we might get more if the shares are cheaper......?

[Ziploc]

At this moment


1- Philipma1957=====>1BTC
2- Ziploc=========> 1BTC
3- jacobmayes94 ===> 0.29BTC
4- Solare
5- wmtomlinso
6-jxz===========>1BTC
7-dtmcnamara
8-PrivacyBTC======>1BTC

[philipma1957]

if we do fixed rate it is a lot less work for me.

I can accept 10 players.

jacobmayes94

has .29 max so lets go .255 a player

10 x .255 = 2.55 btc's

I would spend  1.25btc on each westhash and nicehash

not looking for odd ball numbers  but 10 shares at .255 work.

fee is upfront say .05

I get that win or lose.

prize is 25 coins minus ck fee of .125 that is 24.75   so 1 share for .255 gets 2.475 coins  

  what is not mentioned is  block fees we get them but no one knows the size they will be.  

 so whatever they are devide into 12 shares 10 for the players 1 for me 1 for ck.  example if fee is  .6 that is .05 each