I'm not just talking btc/GH....and not contesting your calc...
but at your target price it would be very difficult to find such amount of hash....
I'm talking:
is it better to have:
100TH for 3 days or
500TH for 0.75 day or
1peta for a day and so on
and
it's better to spend 1BTC even if it's above 0.0073 and get what you want from above..or
1 BTC lower than 0073 and get it in chunks of smaller hash....
In essence I would try to make a graph of
1 line ( probability of finding a block vs hash power )
2nd line (time vs cost)
Those would have to cross somewhere.....then you have your sweet spot....
and you start planning from there......how much BTC you need, How many participants, etc. and which odds are acceptable...
Like I rented 1,7Peta for 10min....but it was pure gambling and waste of BTC.....however I wanted to learn how it works and if it was possible to get that kind of hash and if it would be sustainable...
anyone follows me here ?
yes I do and you are indulging in what is called magical thinking or gambler's fallacy.
look left the order i showed you has yet to activate even though I bumped it to the max number .0073 that still keeps the odds in my favor. someone is just above me with an all no limit order so he gets filled ahead of me.
At this point I can bump to .0074 and win 3 blocks in a row with magical thinking like you are doing you would think something like oh pay just over the right price and just over a no limit order and thats why I won.
That thinking would be magical. my think would be I never play at wrong odds and .0073 is good odds I will wait until the order above me clears.
better yet if .0073 is math in my favor .0072 is more in my favor I will lower my rental price.
see second screen shot.
in the long run I make money and you go broke.
in the short run your way could be better.
the long run in my example my take 5 year or more to be correct.
but I invest you gamble.
my definitions:
invest = odds in your favor
gamble = odd against you
your ideas state you are willing to over pay and that is gambling.
so my sample order is now at .0072 which is odds in my favor. and it also involve magical thinking of a different kind.
ie I will hit the block while teaching you the correct way to play it. --- magical thinking may not work.
I paid .0072 a th sound rational investment thinking as the math is in my favor as I underpaid for the hash.
best of both worlds even if I lose.