[∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining USA/DE 255 blocks solved!

[Ziploc]

Maybe.

Let me get off my tablet and go to a pc.

okay I am on a pc.

what do the 4 of you want to lose? 

.25btc each

.5btc each   

.75btc  each

1 btc each

I will join  so there will be 5 of us.

The goal I do is try to rent at the correct low price using some from nicehash and some from westhash.

Most of the time I do not do fixed.   As fixed is always a little too high.

If we can do .0073 or less  the odds are in our favor.

for me it depends....how many people, how much hash/time...

but I can safely say 0.5 maybe more if I consider the group worthwile


I think we should make calculations and different scenarios.... then post it here and give a deadline to pay..

like

1-
10 poople
cost: 0.35 each
hash: xxx TH
time: xxx Hours

2-
5 people
etc
etc
etc


I think we can get 10 or more if give it some time and spread the word....

[philipma1957]

Simple calc to work out blocks/day etc.
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php
Fill it out as though 'you' are the pool (since you are the pool when mining solo)
Edit: well I better fix that - it's showing the wrong difficulty
Edit2: fixed

for some reason it still doesn't work for me....

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if we spend 5 btc total which is 1 btc  each we get below

600 th for .0072 = 27.78 hours
600 th for .0073 = 27.40 hours
600 th for .0074 = 27.03 hours
600 th for .0075 = 26.67 hours
600 th for .0076 = 26.32 hours

I cap the max I pay at .0076  this means long waits if nice and west hash prices are high

You would need to give me emails in case bitcointalk crashes.
I work for tips.
i.e.  If we miss I do it for free.

If we hit I trust your judgement.

@ziploc

5 max  is far easier to do then 10 or more.

Take a look at the  compac solo pool it is a lot of work for me.

This 5 man group is a lot of work if I try to get good prices like .0073 or so.

[Ziploc]

Simple calc to work out blocks/day etc.
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php
Fill it out as though 'you' are the pool (since you are the pool when mining solo)
Edit: well I better fix that - it's showing the wrong difficulty
Edit2: fixed

for some reason it still doesn't work for me....

The connection was reset

The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading.

    The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments.
    If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer's network connection.
    If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.

if we spend 5 btc total which is 1 btc  each we get below

600 th for .0072 = 27.78 hours
600 th for .0073 = 27.40 hours
600 th for .0074 = 27.03 hours
600 th for .0075 = 26.67 hours
600 th for .0076 = 26.32 hours

I cap the max I pay at .0076  this means long waits if nice and west hash prices are high

You would need to give me emails in case bitcointalk crashes.
I work for tips.
i.e.  If we miss I do it for free.

If we hit I trust your judgement.

I think that we have to take into consideration the difficulty that is rising by 5% every time now....
and BTC price...higher it goes more expensive is the hash...


also why 600TH ?
did you choose by hash power or you wanted a specific duration 27hrs ?

at 600TH it should take on avg 5,5 days to hit a block....
and 27hrs is about 1/5.....which give us avg odds of 20%....

[Ziploc]

if I could make Kano calc work I might try to do a graphic to try to find the sweet spot...

[philipma1957]

if I could make Kano calc work I might try to do a graphic to try to find the sweet spot...

what sweet spot are you talking about?
I think you don't fully understand the math you are dealing with.

here is an order I put in .1 btc at.0070 btc a th I purchased 100th hash

  if you look at the .1000 btc paid in the first shot.

then see the 0.09693  you see the fees paid to nice hash are about 3%

so that .0070 paid per th is pre fee  after fee is 0.00722  the money paid to ck is .125 btc if you hit  so after all is said and done  like I mentioned before we need to rent at

.0073 or less  to be getting 1000+ to one on a 3 digit number.     which means the odds are in your favor.

[o_solo_miner]

  4P on Pool Status....
I cross my fingers for the investors!

[Ziploc]

sweet spot:


hashrate vs time and probabilities of finding a block vs investment

[Ziploc]

I'm not just talking btc/GH....and not contesting your calc...

but at your target price it would be very difficult to find such amount of hash....



I'm talking:

is it better to have:

100TH for 3 days or
500TH for 0.75 day or
1peta for a day and so on



and


it's better to spend 1BTC even if it's above 0.0073 and get what you want from above..or
1 BTC lower than 0073 and get it in chunks of smaller hash....


In essence I would try to make a graph of
1 line ( probability of finding a block vs hash power )
2nd line (time vs cost)

Those would have to cross somewhere.....then you have your sweet spot....

and you start planning from there......how much BTC you need, How many participants, etc. and which odds are acceptable...


Like I rented 1,7Peta for 10min....but it was pure gambling and waste of BTC.....however I wanted to learn how it works and if it was possible to get that kind of hash and if it would be sustainable...



anyone follows me here ?

[kano]

sweet spot:


hashrate vs time and probabilities of finding a block vs investment

It's all linear. No curve to better or worsen your chances.

[Ziploc]

sweet spot:


hashrate vs time and probabilities of finding a block vs investment

It's all linear. No curve to better or worsen your chances.

same for
rented hash rate and time VS cost of the rental.....

and if you plot these 2 together I thing they will cross.....but maybe i'm wrong...

let me work on a that a bit I will check it out with bitcoinwisdom

[jacobmayes94]

0.3BTC is about my limit cause of cash atm

Jacob

[philipma1957]

I'm not just talking btc/GH....and not contesting your calc...

but at your target price it would be very difficult to find such amount of hash....



I'm talking:

is it better to have:

100TH for 3 days or
500TH for 0.75 day or
1peta for a day and so on



and


it's better to spend 1BTC even if it's above 0.0073 and get what you want from above..or
1 BTC lower than 0073 and get it in chunks of smaller hash....


In essence I would try to make a graph of
1 line ( probability of finding a block vs hash power )
2nd line (time vs cost)

Those would have to cross somewhere.....then you have your sweet spot....

and you start planning from there......how much BTC you need, How many participants, etc. and which odds are acceptable...


Like I rented 1,7Peta for 10min....but it was pure gambling and waste of BTC.....however I wanted to learn how it works and if it was possible to get that kind of hash and if it would be sustainable...



anyone follows me here ?

yes I do and you are indulging in what is called magical thinking or gambler's fallacy.

look left  the order i showed you has yet to activate even though I bumped it to the max number .0073 that still keeps the odds in my favor.    someone is  just above me with an all no limit order so he gets filled ahead of me.

At this point I can bump to .0074 and win 3 blocks in a row  with magical thinking like you are doing  you would think something like oh pay just over the right price and just over a no limit order and thats why I won.

That thinking would be magical.  my think would be I never play at wrong odds and .0073 is good odds I will wait until the order above me clears.

better yet if .0073 is math in my favor .0072 is more in my favor I will lower my rental price.
see second screen shot.

in the long run I make money and you go broke.

in  the short run your way could be better.

the long run in my example my take 5 year or more to be correct.

but I invest you gamble.

my definitions:

 invest =  odds in your favor
gamble = odd against you

your ideas state you are willing to over pay and that is gambling.




so my sample order is now at .0072  which is odds in my favor.  and it also involve magical thinking of a different kind.

 ie I will hit the block while teaching you the correct way to play it. --- magical thinking may not work.

I paid .0072 a th sound rational investment thinking as the math is in my favor as I underpaid for the hash.

best of both worlds even if I lose.

[jxz]

If you guys are looking for more participants in the group, I'll join up to 1BTC.

[Ziploc]

Philli


don't want to argue but if you take the things literally, you're gambling to.....because of the nature of mining itself....you might never hit a block...or 1 in 5 years which isn't possible neither because in the mean time with the difficulty and halving your INVESTING ODDS will fall.....or you might hit 5 blocks...


that being said I think if you increase the amount of hash and the time your odds are increasing....the point is at what cost....and what cost would be acceptable...

like I said renting 150Th for a day doesn't even make mathematical sense because on avg it takes at least 3,3Peta to find a block within 24hrs....


there's always a gambling aspect if you want to call it that way....but with a possibility to grab an important part of the network hash rate the odds are indeed increasing...


you're simply thinking ROI...but with solo mining it doesn't apply..in a pool that pays for every share yes...but not solo...




there always be some risk involved the question is how much is acceptable for all

[Ziploc]

I'm still thinking about it but it's hard to figure it out..

so far I have this variables:


1- hash speed
2- time
3- cost
4- probabilities of hashspeed to hit block within a certain fixed period of time (now it takes on avg 3,3peta for 1 block every 24hrs)

they work together and

we want
-4 to be as high as possible
-3 as low as possible


but
if you increase 1 and 2, 4 goes up as well (like 3,3peta for 24hrs)
but if not enough 4 will go down (like 3,3peta for 12hrs) or (1peta for 24hrs) or (10peta for 10min)


then you might increase 1 and lower 2 and/or vice versa to keep 3 fixed.....and this also will have a negative or positive influence on 4


does this make sense ?
So far I have hard time to put on a graph

[madmartyk]

Hard to figure in luck!! 

[philipma1957]

not going to do this.

Ziploc  we have different methods of approaching mining.  I wish you good luck bro.

[Ziploc]

Hard to figure in luck!!  

sure

but here again i came from assumption that many people here, including me, are renting some hash: 150,300,or so TH and try their luck even if the adds are against them...

but if you combine....the odds might increase...but the reward if hit would be lower too because spread among participants...

[Ziploc]

not going to do this.

Ziploc  we have different methods of approaching mining.  I wish you goo luck bro.

why ? did I said that i didn't accept your numbers ?

You called my logic a ''magical thinking or gambler's fallacy"
I showed that yours is the same.....in essence.....and past luck doesn't guarantee the future

Can't accept a polite adult discussion...??


I'm not deciding anything alone...just trying to explain all aspects involved....
because I truly believe that there's a threshold which makes it all more appealing or pointless

the decision is everyone's....and for sure you would have a word because you were supposed to run this....

and as I said before the risk will be always there and if explained well everyone can make their own decision



anw I will try to simplify my thoughts and I hope you will reconsider....

[dtmcnamara]

Im in if this does happen. Let me know