This is good and bad news.
The good is that we will see an inflow of Trillion dollars into the cryptocurrency market which will lead to the parabolic of the major crypto, especially Bitcoin.
The bad news is that the global investment companies that filed for the spot ETF will treat BTC as a fungible token, they will want to be the market's major player and they will go to extra lengths to do that which includes high restrictions and KYC for crypto and there's going to be a lot of market manipulation unless the SEC provide a law that prevents companies from do it
Perhaps, yes. Eventually bitcoin will hit a price and stability where there is no need to get out of it and you can just remain in crypto. Then the statist authoritarians will have to display their true colors even more than now. |
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And the price dropped immediately. Although it seems to be recovering. Seems like a stupid move to sell when there are potentially a huge amount of new demand. But then again many of these traders aren't the sharpest.
The details are super sparse.
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It just was approved....per CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/09/-sec-approves-bitcoin-etfs-for-trading.html"The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved rule change applications to allow the first bitcoin ETFs in the United States, paving the way for the long-awaited funds to begin trading as soon as this week.
The decision will likely lead to the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which holds about $29 billion of the cryptocurrency, into an ETF, as well as the launch of competing funds from mainstream issuers like BlackRock’s iShares.
The approval could prove to be a landmark event in the adoption of cryptocurrency by mainstream finance, as the ETF structure gives institutions and financial advisors a familiar and regulated way to buy exposure to bitcoin."
... Update: Now the SEC says this: "SEC Twitter 'Compromised,' Chair Gensler Says After Account Said Bitcoin ETFs Approved" https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/01/09/sec-twitter-compromised-chair-gensler-says-after-account-said-bitcoin-etfs-approved/ |
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PS likes hard money like gold. He hasn't (yet) gotten the fact that bitcoin is even harder than gold. Eventually he may get it. Or not. That's fine, he is very set in his ways and has been right about some things in the past, and wrong about some things like most people. His opinion on BTC has been meaningless except to the people who listened and didn't take advantage of the benefits of bitcoin in the past.
As far as the "cautious trader" - how about not trading, and just buying some and letting it ride? Short term, the fiat price has certainly been volatile, long term the trend has been obvious.
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People have had 15 years to get involved in bitcoin. There is a difference between FOMO and "there is still time to get in before" <whatever event is coming> - ETF, halving etc
:-)
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I've been running a node since summer 2010 and bitcoin already has spam measures and it is called fees. Often I agree with Luke, but in this case it seems like he is off base.
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Cramer is right.
But Munger was right about it being rat poison and it outed a bunch of statist authoritarian rats like himself, Dimon etc. Rats don't like poison and they sure complain about bitcoin.
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Bitcoin has always had a spam filter, fees. As he says, as the fees go higher it prices out junk. Whatever "junk" is to people.
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I think one deadline is January 10 so maybe we'll hear this week, but they seem to wait until the last second to approve. Or perhaps after the market closes on a Friday?
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That is good to hear given the number of entities who are using them for custody. If they hadn't, I'd be worried. I guess we'll find out soon enough which, if any, are approved.
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It seems that happens a lot, people front-run it, then it sells off briefly and then resumes its trek upwards. It happened at one (or more?) of the halving where it went up in fiat terms beforehand and then when it didn't immediately pop higher, people said, "why not?" and sold. Then within a few weeks/months it kept going up. The best advice: buy (or mine) some bitcoin and put it away and come back in a few years. But people want get-rich-quick schemes.
Very true, and one can validate this on-chart. <50k DCA, >50k enjoy the ride is my opinion. I do have two qualms about this thread though: - Since when does mainstream crypto news talk about future corrections with a motive to cause people to sell, or miss the gain? - if the 15+ ETF applications are approved, wouldn't that create a race to accumulate Bitcoin between institutions? I would think that if they are approved, yes it would. In the short term afterwards, there could be a drop as the "sell the news" hits, but as people begin to invest using ETFs it should only increase demand. Assuming of course they really do purchase and hold bitcoins. These are big players though so one would think they'd be honest. Of course, if you don't have the keys you are just a creditor so.... |
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"‘Number go up’: bitcoin’s startling surge is inexplicable as ever"
The intelligence level of some of the people at FT is abysmally low. They do tend to be on the authoritarian statist side of the aisle, so it isn't surprising that they push an anti-bitcoin agenda at every turn. When you have to toe the line to support the people who want to have control over everyone and everything it is difficult to see the benefits of bitcoin. However it must be tiring having to submit to the whims of the statists and not to have a unapproved or independent thought.
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Honestly I think he is right if the US is not careful, I guess it'll all depend how the next election plays out and how the world economy is doing. It will probably also be largely affected by how all other countries percieve the USD at the time inflation occurs, most likely it will be accompanied by a devastating blow to the US economy or presidential adminiistration makes a collasel mistake etc. etc. I hope it doesn't happen anytime soon but it is very important to start preparing today!
I agree. If the US is not careful you can easily get hyper inflation. With the interest costs on the debt potentially ballooning, it can get out of handy quickly. The smart move over the last 14-15 years would've been to finance all the outstanding debt at the super low rates using 100 year bonds. But you can't expect the people in DC to be intelligent. |
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Perhaps a constitutional republic. Where the constitution is the code. A pure democracy is fiat where a majority of the people are free to enslave a portion (e.g. the democrats in the old US south), or to take a percentage of everyone's money via inflation.
You should fear an unlimited democracy.
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It seems that happens a lot, people front-run it, then it sells off briefly and then resumes its trek upwards. It happened at one (or more?) of the halving where it went up in fiat terms beforehand and then when it didn't immediately pop higher, people said, "why not?" and sold. Then within a few weeks/months it kept going up. The best advice: buy (or mine) some bitcoin and put it away and come back in a few years. But people want get-rich-quick schemes.
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I like the way people look out of the window and then see storm clouds on the horizon and then predict that it is going to rain.  This is what these so-called experts are doing now... and people gobble up these predictions ..as if it is guaranteed. So, what happens if the Spot ETF application are denied? What happens when the hype around the next Halving blows over.... will we still see those ATHs that are predicted?  Yeah, it is all guessing, no one knows for sure. To me the ETF is icing on the cake since it just opens up another avenue for people to get into the ecosystem. And as far as the halving, well, every other halving resulted in higher prices due to stable or increased demand and a cut in the new supply by half. By their nature forecasts, the fore implies it should be something in the future, not what they see out the window now. As you say, there forecast isn't much use. |
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With the various forks, e.g. bitcoin gold etc, many people may have "forgotten" holdings out there. It is difficult to know unless you are aware of every fork that has happened, so don't forget to look and see there too.
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For the larger providers a few millions dollars is a relative pittance. I think the "no first mover advantage" is why the SEC is likely to approve a bunch at once if they approve any now - they don't want to be seen playing favorites. This is good for everyone because competition will help keep costs low.
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Anyone can make predictions and will do so when there is no accountability to getting it wrong. The best prediction was made long ago: bitcoin is either going to be worth a whole lot, or very little. It certainly seems most likely to be on the "whole lot" side of things now vs when that was made in 2009-2011.
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