One problem with having only a few producers is monopolies and cartels. What if they decide collectively to block transactions from certain services they deem to be competition? If a few entities cover 90% of block generation and you issue a transaction from a service they don't like, it could take a couple hours to get first confirmation. Or they could start screwing with the protocol, or any number of other devious things.
I agree with all of the above. 3 to 5 companies doing 90% of the mining will cause death to btc for the above reasons. BTC is a money substitute for investors. Once a few companies do all the mining they control all the new transactions. How would you want to hold 100,000 coins and not be able to move them because BITFURY held up the block they are in. If we get to: KNC BITFURY SP-TECH AVALON BITMAINTECH ASICMINER all self miners and the rest of the world shut out the system dies. SP-Tech does have the idea for 5 or 6 people to share a few dozen 16kwatt units in low power areas. At least it is something. I would want a piece of it maybe. Killing off the home miner is a moron move. Making the home miner have heater/bitcoin device is viable. All across the world people use this item.  I posted response to something similar in SPT thread and repost here; I totally agree. Who would invest in bitcoin knowing that 3-4 monopolists can move the price tenfold down just trying to crush each other. Or, how about making transaction cost moving from 2c to $2? Apple is doing pretty good with mass produced $200-500 devices. We just need to find either second use (heat, of course) or other application (in dual use device). |
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Just as important as the electricity rates is the access to technology.
With the big boys investing millions into chips at .3 to .1 efficiency to mine for themselves they have no incentive to sell to retail or other competitors.
actually they may believe what you just wrote. but they will crash the price of btc if they don't keep small guys in the game. why invest in holding btc if only 3 to 4 places control the supply? unlike diamonds which have real use other then bling, drill bits come to mind btc is purely a cash substitute. I can't see an investor wanting to hold 100,000 coins in the way an investor holds shares of APPLE (any company) if the mining is centralized to 3-5 companies. I also still see miners in the home as space heaters. I am not sure why DeLonghi has not merged or started a joint venture with btc in mind http://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-EW7707CM-Safeheat-ComforTemp-Oil-Filled/dp/B000TGDGLU/ref=sr_1_1?I totally agree. If you just buy BTC and then Bitfury would want to crush KnC or vice versa by dropping the price, thereby crushing the value of my BTC 'investment', then it would be stupid to have such investment in the first place. For mass consumption, space heaters is one possibility, second is, perhaps, routers. Everyone uses a router. Why not add low power hashing chip(s) to it? Third-refrigerator. It releases a bit of heat already, so why not a bit more while hashing. |
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0.00% lets see .
my understanding is that 0.00 is is actually an interval between >-0.01; <+0.01, and even for this interval the award should have been roughly 10-12X from a statistical point of view. The probability of it being exactly +/-0.00X with X being less than 5, rounded to 0.00 IS smaller still (about 1/25 of each other interval). |
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For anyone that doesn't know yet: The UMISOO market on Hashnest is based on Antminer S2 miners, you could get 1TH for a cheap 0.2 BTC there and redeem the hardware as soon as the upgrade kit comes out  Maybe Bitmain will even offer the option to upgrade those hosted miners at an extra cost, that would be an extremely profitable investment I guess  Getting a S2 for 0.2 BTC and buying the upgrade kit (propably not that expensive) which Bitmain stated to perform under 0.4W/Ghash would result in a 2-2.5Thash miner using about 800-1000W for a very good price. Where have you seen S2 for 0.2BTC? It is selling for $250-300 on Ebay. |
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At the current BTC value selling miners is probably more profitable than mining. They are selling to someone. Just not us.
Could be a very astute observation. If any of the state actors would suddenly want to mine bitcoin, they will sweep the slate clean and there will be almost no miners for sale. |
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Just a spot of info...
I received the box of Delta's 1212HHE and they are of no use.
These are Apple Case fans and come with 4 pin connector (and ALL black wires), but the S5 will not drive it.
I possibly could figure out how to make them go at a fixed speed, but at 55 I'm too old to fiddle around with things I don't WANT to understand.
I tried to liberate that 'pig' in the wall 50 years ago with a 'match', holding the match head between my fingers, just to be 'lucky' and hit that
HOT wire on the first try, finding myself 4m away upside down the opposite wall with the the burning match between my fingers.
(the ass whopping from dad 'cured' me indefinably from 'messing' with wires and electricity to this day)
I admire people that whip out these fancy measuring devices and know how to splice wires etc to make something go.
I am going to shop for something that works out of the box ... (not having Navi in the name though)
Let me know if you come across some viable solution to this noise pollution besides building a new shack in the back yard and run wire to it.
Just to help-want my noctua and scythe fans? i sold my s5 without them, so i have them lying around now (two noctua and two Scythe's). Noctua 3000 for push+Scythe for pull work at setting 350 producing 1150GH with much less noise (as long as ambient is below 30C). I have hashing records. Hi Biodom, what you're asking for them? Shipping in the US? I am near Kansas City, zip code 66062. Paypal would be my preference to pay for them and it would give you the verified shipping address ... don't think this needs to be escrow'd Ordered a Delta AFB1212SHE-PWM yesterday which is supposed to be sufficient with only one fan, but I have 2 other S5's that could use a fix. paypal is OK, i PM'ed you re price. |
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This is a short term offer as we are doing a bulk purchase! One CryptoKube 200 Launch with 17 Spondoolies SP31 $55,500 USD. This is a plug and play system that will include all electrical and cooling components as well as the mining hardware. Just plug it in and you have 80 TH of power that is secure and cooled! Check it out at www.cryptokube.comThese will be built in Western Canada and can be easily shipped to the cheap power in Washington State. people would be very interested at BTC=$500 and would tear it from your hands with BTC at >=$600 Good timing, perhaps, if BTC will surge on some news. |
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Just a spot of info...
I received the box of Delta's 1212HHE and they are of no use.
These are Apple Case fans and come with 4 pin connector (and ALL black wires), but the S5 will not drive it.
I possibly could figure out how to make them go at a fixed speed, but at 55 I'm too old to fiddle around with things I don't WANT to understand.
I tried to liberate that 'pig' in the wall 50 years ago with a 'match', holding the match head between my fingers, just to be 'lucky' and hit that
HOT wire on the first try, finding myself 4m away upside down the opposite wall with the the burning match between my fingers.
(the ass whopping from dad 'cured' me indefinably from 'messing' with wires and electricity to this day)
I admire people that whip out these fancy measuring devices and know how to splice wires etc to make something go.
I am going to shop for something that works out of the box ... (not having Navi in the name though)
Let me know if you come across some viable solution to this noise pollution besides building a new shack in the back yard and run wire to it.
Just to help-want my noctua and scythe fans? i sold my s5 without them, so i have them lying around now (two noctua and two Scythe's). Noctua 3000 for push+Scythe for pull work at setting 350 producing 1150GH with much less noise (as long as ambient is below 30C). I have hashing records. |
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In October 2014 a non-peer-reviewed paper by the same authors as the May 2013 report describes results from evaluations in March 2014 of an upgraded version of the E-Cat which runs at higher temperatures. Unlike previous demonstrations, the test was carried out with monitoring equipment and in a laboratory not supplied by Rossi, and was run over an extended duration (32 days).[66] However, as with the previous report, the authors were not in full control of the process yep, not a truly independent testing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer |
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...
Their saying the definetly WILL NOT produce consumer models for their next gen...
What I said was that our initial form factor for the 3rd gen will be suitable for bulk buyers. Please read my last messages. This is fine, as long as that grade is not required at a truck load to buy. I could buy a single 16kw unit. no issue, would like to buy from you and not from a third party, unless you plan to have authorized resellers? We'll probably sell single units as well. It's not a promise though. I believe that a much better model for a small buyers will be to buy some small percentage of a shared mine. From the marketing perspective-most people in US will not go for it (sharing small %). It's just not in our DNA (although i am not a native, but as they say in Texas-I was born elsewhere, but got here as soon as i could). Besides, i seriously doubt that the big iron is the way to go. We went through this in computers, and it is clearly not the most efficient way. I don't know what will be a winning combo: maybe heaters that could mine; maybe miners that could do other things, like trading stuff between each other; maybe 3D printers that could mine when not in use or internet/wireless routers that could mine. Dual purpose with low energy chips. A couple of things that SPT did not address: 1. Is this miner based on 28nm or 16nm (I assume 28nm)? 2. What real life energy efficiency it will have? 3. Although it is probably FUD as far as speed of actual machines being produced is concerned, competitors are claiming the tapeout of 16nm 0.07w/Gh chip. Even assuming that it will result in 0.1Gh/w, it is still 10Th/1000w. I fail to see the urgent need for a 16kw machine that would be difficult to deploy. |
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SP20e sold, EVGA is sold as well accept bids for EVGA 1300
: the last ONE of two that were initially for sale two great SP20E machines that were for most time downclocked, but tested at regular speed.
New price: 1.71 BTC (currently $499), shipped to US (at a discount to the prevalent ebay price of $600-715). Can ship to Canada with everything over $20 in shipment cost added (as extra). Machines were stationed in an air conditioned environment.
Since SP20 is now discontinued, I consider it a collection product with the price STILL similar to the final SPT price ($479+shipping) when bitcoin was 35% lower.
S5 is $416 $466 shipped, available only on March 30, two weeks away.
As a result, todays fair value of S5 is ~$450 and SP20E fair value is at least 20-30% higher due to its higher speed (at least 1.5TH is easily achievable, maybe up to 1.6-1.65TH), ease of customization, unavailability, etc. I am selling at a discount to that.
1.71BTC/$499
Sold as well EVGA 1300 in perfect shape (used for a few months), $135 (now 0.47BTC), shipped to US.
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OT: Hey, is Eligius off? I don't see the web site and miners switched over.
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KnC 20nm machine was grossly overpriced, 6 mo preorder and than 1-2 mo late. By the time it finally came out, it did not matter that much because there were comparable and much less expensive machines from Spond and Bitmain.
I expect pretty much the same story-a lot of hype and than mediocre implementation or none as far as consumer side is concerned.
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Anyone think Sondoolies Tech will even make other miners?
Yes and it will likely be the last one you can purchase from moving forward. Given the KnC, Bitfury, Asicminer model of their own farms the market demand will probably disappear completely. Build & self-mining farms will be the only thing left before an even larger collapse of the BTC price. I like to think you are wrong. But I am losing my bullish beliefs in BTC 1 day at a time. I thought that BTC could be a good addition to other assets 10-20 years later, but right now I think about it as a hobby. Honestly, we look more and more like stamp collectors or gamers than nouveau riche, but I am fine with this, to a degree. |
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Probably both. Sales of S5 will likely resume, and they'll also likely release S2 upgrades, possibly with a full S6 not too far behind it.
I expect sales to start back today or tomorrow. S-5 and a S-2 upgrade. Not sure if they will sell an s-6. Apparently they could not made their mind today or were not ready as everybody was expecting. Maybe tomorrow. |
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Probably both. Sales of S5 will likely resume, and they'll also likely release S2 upgrades, possibly with a full S6 not too far behind it.
I expect sales to start back today or tomorrow. S-5 and a S-2 upgrade. Not sure if they will sell an s-6. I looked at the numbers and S2 upgrade makes sense only if it is very cheap, like $600-700. If S6 is a 4U machine, shipping from China would be prohibitively expensive for what is probably a 2750-2894Th machine at <1100w (S2 limit). |
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Bumping with decreased price $1625, free shipping to US.
Miner was checked by jeffcolo to produce the following efficiency (major relevant points):
1584 watts @ 3010 ghash = 0.526W/ghash
1856 watts @ 3329 ghash = 0.557W/ghash
1968 watts @ 3481 ghash = 0.565W/ghash
2415 watts @ 3989 ghash = 0.605W/ghash
2992 watts @ 4483 ghash = 0.667W/ghash
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Honestly, I fail to see why the cost of production of 10% of bitcoin should have a dominant effect on ~65% that are already produced.
Well that is quite simple. Why would someone pay you more for a bitcoin you acquired last week than what it would cost to produce a new one today ? How about this: bitcoin is produced in countries all over the world, but is exchanged in a narrow value band. I assume that the cost of production in china is maybe 1/4 of cost of production in New Jersey, yet the price is the basically same, hence the cost of production price argument is false. I apologize for this distraction, we should take this argument to speculation. |
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I think the price of bitcoin is determined by the market, not by the cost of producing it.
When bitcoin hit $1200 it wasn't because the cost of producing it increased, it was market forces.
The cost of producing bitcoin is raised or lowered to meet the market price, not the other way around. If bitcoin goes up to $1000, miners will see a profit incentive and more rigs will come online... driving up the mining difficulty and hence the cost of producing each bitcoin. If bitcoin goes down, some miners will switch off unprofitable rigs, reducing the cost of producing bitcoin (for the remaining miners). Mining expands or contracts to maintain an equilibrium where the profit from mining is marginal, whatever the market price is.
Miners are reacting to the market price, not the other way around. Very few people buying bitcoin would perform a calculation to see how much it would cost to mine bitcoin (i.e. what the production cost is), instead they look at the current market price.
Of course there are all sorts of economic forces in play that influence bitcoin pricing on a short term basis. But in a free market competition will ensure that the price of bitcoin trends towards the cost of producing it over the long term. All bets are off, of course, if monopolies are able to establish themselves, non-free-market forces like the gox manipulation occur, etc. The more interesting question is how can we model bitcoin prices once the supply asymptotically approaches 21 million and the cost of production asymptotically approaches infinity. following your logic, the price of bitcoin will then approach the infinity as well...which is a clearly not going to happen. For practical purposes, though, the price of bitcoin will not be influenced much by the cost of its production as it approaches year 2140, because by then the cost will move to transactions. Honestly, I fail to see why the cost of production of 10% of bitcoin should have a dominant effect on ~65% that are already produced. |
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In a free market the price of bitcoin trends towards the cost of producing it.
That is only true (to an extent) if bitcoin is a true commodity, but it is clearly not ONLY a commodity. Bitcoin is a programmable token, and you can attach services to it. Taking your example to extreme, dollar is only worth its production cost of a few cents, but it is clearly not. |
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