If you are not very used to this kind of exercise (or any exercise), I would suggest starting out with three sets per day, scattered through the day, and you should be able to do that every day as long as you don't do too many and even if you might be sore, just adjust how many you do per set, whether it is 5 per set or 10  or 15 or maybe 30 per set... and then later after several weeks, you might be able to increase to 4 sets per day or even 5 sets per day and that way you can increase your total number of pushups per day.

You seem to be writing a bit in a form of a riddle, so it is not very easy to understand the answer to the clear question regarding whether you are still accumulating BTC. 

My overall sense is that you are, but you are not very clear about it since you continue to talk about your BTC accumulation as something that you did in the past and that you have enough.. except you are not selling blah blah blah..

In other words, you are about as clear as mud..

Which means you probably don't have enough BTC, you likely need to continue to accumulate and then maybe in 4-6 years, let us know where you are at then... but in the meantime, keep accumulating in accordance with your abilities, even if it might seem that every small extra bit of BTC (satoshis) that you buy is only making a small extra bit of difference, over the next 4-6 years or maybe even if your timeline is 10 years or more, then you may well be glad that you continued to accumulate bitcoin rather than stopping after only a short amount of time. 

It is hard to imagine any successful investor who ONLY invested for 13 months and ended up being successful from that.. that seems more  like a fantasy than a reality, even though maybe once in a while there might be those kinds of stories... they are not reflective of the real ways that real people actually end up putting themselves in better financial situations in the real world.


Exactly.  Investing in shitcoins is stupid as fuck, especially when we have an opportunity in the best asset so far known to man, and available to everyone, and getting distracted into shitcoins amounts to retardedness or gullibility and/or distracted mindset...

So anyone who is not able to resist their temptations to gamble and want to invest into shitcoins should at least attempt to do  themselves a favor by limiting their investment into shitcoins to no more than 10% the size of their BTC investment, so at least, they would have put some kind of limit on the level of their dumbness and at the same time potentially satisfied their desires to explore with those gambling products that seems so irresistibly tempting (and that is how they are designed.. to lure in people who don't know any better - and even seemingly smart people get involved in them and involved in persuading you to either invest into their crap or to sell your BTC.. or fail to invest in BTC because you are distracted into seemingly shininess. .and when the shininess wears off, you see that you had been shining a turd).


You do not need to have a steady income to invest in bitcoin, but you do need to have income that exceeds your expenses, and likely if you have a lot of dry spells in your income you either have to stop investing in bitcoin during the dry spells or you could invest with reserves..  .. so merely because someone might have been gambling and doing well with bitcoin investing, all of us should still be striving to exercise good practices so that we never have to sell any of our bitcoin at at time that is anything but our own choosing, and surely we are likely going to be advantaged to be able to hold and invest into bitcoin 4-10 years or more before we even start to consider any practices that involve selling our BTC rather than strictly accumulating. 


I doubt that there is any need for a final goal, but sure I get your point that there are likely easier to reach goals and working up to a longer term goal that might seem difficult to achieve (or maybe even seem impossible to achieve)... .. and so yeah, it is good to keep the various goals in mind and also to readjust from time to time, too... since there could be several differences in your situation 4-6 years later versus when you first established the goals, besides the fact that maybe you had already reached several of the lower level BTC accumulation threshold points.

It is tomorrow as soon as the candle closes.. so yeah, these days we are using midnight UTC as our day differentiator - which I think has become somewhat standard with the closing of a lot of the daily candles.


Wow!!!  Great work sleuthing the interwebs in order to spot some kind of data that works to give us some other currencies in there.


Sure it appears that the numbers do not exactly match up because the latest was Kraken rather than Coingecko/Yahoo.. but that is o.k. if they don't match exactly, they still give something to compare rather than having nothing... Of course, if there is more than one choice in any currency pair, then there may need to be some thinking about which exchange or reporting entity might be best out of the available options.   Edit - after reading your further below descriptions of the data:  on the other hand if the prices are not based on  daily trade-weighted volume for any of the historical (or the current) data then that should be clearly pointed out.


I am pretty sure that it means what it says since if you take the total dollar value and you divide by the total number of BTC traded, then the results ends up being a dollar value.


That's correct.


If you are referring to the Euro and you able to show some results that fills in the full 100 slots for the Euro or any other currency, then I am not sure if there would be much of a significant difference between Coinbase and Bitcoinity.. or course on bitcoinity, you should be able to choose which exchange within those results.. so that could be better.. but I am not really sure off the top of my head without potentially comparing results.. or maybe how easy it might be for you to extract from whatever data set that you would end up drawing upon..


Despite your positive thinking, I am not sure whether it would be helpful to mix and match data that is not volume weighted with data that is volume weighted, unless you clearly make a note that it is the best data for the day, or maybe you take the opening price and the closing price and then you average them (or probably better yet to take the highest price for the day and the lowest price for the day and average them), yet none of those results are going to bring you even close to the accuracy of the daily weighted volume price... .. In the end, you are at least making it clear how the numbers are derived, then we could at least have a way to give some weight to the comparative value of the numbers that end up in the tables.

jbreher was pumping BSV too.. so that was the context of my making that above-quoted statement, and many of us considered him to not be a fraudster.. so yeah, it is a problematic part of his history.

He used to come into the thread quite regularly maybe daily or every few days, and just say that he was coming in to correct the record and blah blah blah.. which largely amounted to pumping BSV.

Of course, we have rights to have our own opinions and to express them in this thread, but surely many of us know that it is a slippery slope to be pumping shitcoins in a thread like this, and so if some of us might be bashing on various shitcoins, including BSV, but then if someone like jbreher came in to defend BSV. it just seems quite a problematic position for him to have had been taking, and of course, many of us know that he does not seem to be any kind of dummy.. which can make it even more dangerous when guys who are persuasive in their position support and/or promote seemingly obvious scams like BSV (and the scam level was even known then), and sometimes he would even try to suggest that there were ways to still support BSV but not necessarily think believe that CSW is satoshi and other nonsense like that.. (which is additional muddiness, at best), and so yeah, some of us find those historical attacks on bitcoin to have had been problematic. and we thought that they were problematic at that time too.. .. in 2016 and 2017 with all the bcash bullshit, and then in late 2018 with the distractions of one bcash (abc - or BCH) and the other bcash (sv or BSV) splitting up and causing more drama... and likely lured some innocent folks into supporting those shitcoins (at least until the gullible ones would some times end up learning better after they had been tricked and fleeced).

I thought that I already acknowledge that there are some third-party custodial wallets... .. so yeah, I don't know the details, and if I had a lightning wallet and I sent my transaction to someone with a chivo wallet, then wouldn't they be able to receive it.. That was the ONLY point that I was making in regards to some of the wallets in El Salvador may have had issues.


I had already heard that they had problems with the roll out of that wallet.. so I doubt that the Chivo wallet is the whole story about being able to transact with bitcoin (and/or lightning network) in el salvaldor.

Yes, I understand that part of the attraction of lightning network was to allow for smaller level transactions, and yeah, maybe that part is not working so well in El Salvador in terms of the feasiblity of smaller transactions and the other problems that you point out that they become less and less lighting network and seem to be like a inside service.. and so yeah, I don't know if I would be able to send from my lightning wallet in those cases... I doubt that the problems with those parts of the programs would be a total death knell for whatever is going on with lightning network in El Salvador, but yeah you could be correct that Mallers's reputation should be undermined based on some of the issues if his company and his systems might have been involved in some of the failures to deliver.. perhaps? perhaps?  I don't claim to have time to be studying into the matters, even if you ended up pointing out some of these matters.



Mallers is still popular, so yeah, maybe he is partly responsible for his product not being used in El Salvador as much as it had seemed to have had been originally outlined.   I don't mind to consider the facts on the ground if some of the matters might not be working out as well as anticipated and yeah there might be certain interfaces that are not working - even though like I originally mentioned there are still ways to use the lightning network in El Salvador or even to transact in bitcoin that might not be so easily accomplished in other areas, especially since El Salvador is promoting the abilities to transact in bitcoin and/or lightning network.


I did not say that I worship him, and it does seem that he has overpromised and underdelivered on several aspects of his product, so there are other people in the bitcoin space who are not very keen on some aspects of Jack Mallers.. .. while at the same time, he does hit on a lot of great bitcoin talking points when he is interviewed in various public media events. .and yeah, he remains pretty popular, but that does not mean that I idolize him.. but I am not completely negative about his motives either.. so you know the expression: "don't attribute to malice that which can be attributable to incompetence."  So in that regard, I am not going to jump to conclusions about malice things have been happening at the behest of Mallers  even if there could be various possible examples of his incompetencies in relation to aspects of the ways that the Chivo wallet as connected with his product was attempted to be rolled out.


Maybe Chivo wallet failed?  I am not sure if LN has failed, because LN is still going.


How do you know these things?  There could also be some disenchantment about bitcoin due to price drops and/or bitcoin's volatility.. especialloy downward in 2022.

I am not going to claim to be as smart as you in terms of the supposed death of LN, and it seems that Chivo wallet may well still be going.  It is just not the same as it was originally thought to be.


Why would I have time to research?  How do you know? I am not claiming to be any kind of El Salvador and/or lightning network expert. I am a participant in this forum with my own interests, and I don't need any fucking assignments from know-it-all patronizing dweebs like you.


I doubt that is even a realistic conclusion about my own response to the Mallers video.  I said that I watched it and I described what he said differently from you, and you seem to be so full of hate and wanting to be right all the time, that you might not be able to accept that lightning nework is still operating.. and Mallers seems to be involved with aspects of the lightning network.  I don't follow him around, yet I still interpreted the short video clip differently from you, which seems a BIG so what.. I already made my response to point out where I thought that you were exaggerating a bit much in terms of what you said about Mallers's interview.  and so I doubt that we need to even go further with the topic.  Each of us made our responses, but yeah, I know you like to pursue matters into the absurd, and that's fine.. I suppose..It just seems a bit much how you can get so carried away with some of the conclusions that you made.. and there is no need for me to reiterate your conclusions..  Maybe that's your point, to just distract with the level of your apparent outrageous responses.

I watched the video too, Franky.

Mallers seemed to say the exact opposite of what you are criticizing him for, or maybe to rephrase that Mallers said that if you can recognize and appreciate that the lightning network was able to transfer from some currency and then put that currency into bitcoin and then transfer to another part of the world into to transfer into another currency without any hardly any costs, then that is an achievement that seems quite powerful that had not previously been achieved...

So in that regard, you (Franky) seem to be a person who is putting your own expectations on the LN, and yeah we all know that LN is not the same as base layer bitcoin, but it also has abilities to peg in and out of bitcoin without creating new coins. and yeah there are seeming to be ongoing glitches, but the LN is still serving purposes for some people who are transacting in bitcoin (pegged to bitcoin) in ways that they might not be able to achieve on the base layer - depending on when the transactions are done.

I hate to even ask you any questions about your solutions, yet many of us can see that LN is complementing bitcoin in various transactional ways...and yeah maybe sometimes it would be better to send transactions on chain..

I am pretty sure that LN is still being used in a lot of places in El Salvador, yet at the same time, I understand that there are a lot of third-party custodial wallets there.  However, if I were to go to El Salvador with my Phoenix wallet and/or my Aqua Wallet (or perhaps my Breez wallet that currently is not charged with any balance), I am pretty sure that I would be able to transact with several El Salvador persons and/or vendors to provide goods and/or services with the lightning network, or even I forgot that I have cash app too, which uses lightning (although surely Cash App is way more third-party custodial than the other ones I mentioned that I have).   We might need to see some kind of source if you are proclaiming that LN doesn't work in El Salvador anymore... ..and some of what is being used in any particular location will not only have to do with the infrastructure that is at that location, but also what individuals, institutions and/or governments might choose to use, so if we go there, there may be some variance and also just individualized choices about whether some of them are using third-party custodial wallets or if they are using self-custodial wallets.

I was not suggesting that everything at Binance is on the "up and up" but instead that any kind of analysis of the various kinds of shenanigans that might be going on is going to be way more complicated than to say that they are just like FTX, which surely is a lame-ass talking point from previously, and even that earlier talking point was not true.. prior to Binance agreeing to the monitoring arrangement that they are in currently.


A living legend that we like to beat up upon in these here parts, especially when he was pumping some of that BIGblocker bullishit and also BSV.. don't forget so easily how retarded BSV had been the whole time.. what reasonable person could have had taken BSV seriously? even back in when it was first started in late 2018?.. ... .. which is one of the great things in regards to a quasi-anonymous forum in which the contents of your posts might also carry some weight.

Yes.  Exactly.  Cross one bridge at a time, yet I am thinking that the Mike Tyson pushups might be easier than the clapping (at least for me), but if I did the Mike Tyson pushups I might have to at least count them as 1.5 or some kind of a multiple in case they don't quite count for a 2x.


They are full pushups and generally about 30 pushups in 40 seconds. or maybe something like that... I am not pausing between pushups, so yeah, I am not at that kind of a level.. so yeah, I am continuing to push for quantity over quality.. and I am likely going to be able to continue to measure my improvement in terms of pain, strength or how many I can do in a set.. and maybe if I get up to 75 or 100 in a set or I am able to do 1 or 2 clapping pushups, then maybe I might consider working in some focuses on quality or begin to do them slower.  I am also considering my recovery time.. so yeah levels of soreness of various body parts and/or overall feelings of tiredness, and so if recovery times are improving then I would be able to measure progress with those kinds of things, too.

I am pretty sure that my form is getting better just by doing them. and I can tell if I try to push myself too much in a series my form might start to denigrate so if I get to 35 and then I do 36 and 37 and they really suck, then I will only count 35 and then NOT try to make it to 40.


Exactly.. the body is an amazing thing, but then at the same time, sometimes you might have to go back to a lower number just to allow your body to recover and maybe to make sure that you maintain some kind of decent form... I admit with my own form I  probably would ONLY be able to do right around 50% if I were to pause at the top and the bottom like the David Goggins pushups.. maybe it would even be less than 50% if I tried to do them that way, and I am not going to do it.  I don't want to despirit (demotivate) myself.  And, even though I am showing you guys my numbers, I am competing against myself in the long run I am doing them how I want to do them, yet I am using this challenge as a kind of excuse and inspiration to actually stick with some variation of a plan that other bitcoiners are also carrying out...and we have all kinds of levels.. and I really bet that some of the guys who might start out by doing 5 sets of 5, and then 5 sets of 6 and keep working their way up, they are also going to get benefits, as long as they don't over do it and stick with it, and sometimes it might not feel worth it, especially if we had not been exercising, but as long as we don't injure ourselves, it is probably going to be good for us to engage in this kind of activity, even if it is modified and even if our quantity might not be as high as others.  I know that there are guys here that could do 3 sets of 50 pushups in a matter of a couple of hours, or they are able to do clapping pushups or the Tyson pushups, yet I am at a level that I would be quite happy if I were able to do three sets and get to 100 pushups in a few hours, and when I started, I was not quite able to do 100 pushups in a whole day (without overly straining myself).. so I see progress, even though some sessions hurt more than other sessions... sometimes I get thrugh the first 10 and I want to quit because it hurts, but I have the strength to keep going, but in the first day when I first started doing the pushups, I did not know my limits, yet on reflection, I know I would not have been able to do nearly as many as I can do now.


Yeah, but you are narrowing your debt.  At first you were doing less than 50 per day, so the amount of your pushups was less than your debt, and now at least if you stay between 51 and 100, then your debt is shrinking in terms of not growing as fast... and then if you are over 100 per day, then you are going to actually be eating into your pushup debt...

For me, I like to have the cushion, but it is causing me to want my average to keep going up every day, so that means that I have to do at least 1 more pushup than the current average, and so far it has not been a problem, but I have created an extra psychological barrier upon myself that surely is self-imposed, so I don't have to keep thinking in that kind of a way.


Sometimes breathing really hard and heavy and even throwing in some grunts can help to improve motivations and energy to do them when they start to feel difficult to do.  


It is pretty well known that testosterone levels are improved by physical exercise and perhaps more from resistance training kinds of exercises rather than the more cardio exercises.  So it is good if you experience personal results to confirm that... no reason to doubt you about that.. especially if you had really been doing your pushups and you had not been doing anything like that previously.


I don't mean to be overly judgmental, but that quantity seems pretty low absent some reason that it needs to be that  low. .

In other words, you might want to consider doing three sets of push ups per day (or at least working up to being able to do 3 sets).., because one session per day seems to be pretty whimpy (especially with that quantity of pushups). and you might not experience improvements from that low of a level of pushups and if you are doing them all in one session and that scattered out of your sessions (which for you seems to be ONLY 1 session per day). ..

Of course, in the end, you can engage in this challenge in whatever way that you like...; or whatever fits your lifestyle and/or abilities.

Through more years, there are more possibilities of compounding value, when then can put a person in a place where they are able to either live off their bitcoin or to greatly supplement their income and they are ONLY selling small portions of their bitcoin on a monthly or perhaps some other kind of timeline in which they choose to withdraw some of the value from BTC and convert it into their currency and/or make purchases with it..   

So one thing is getting the stash to a large enough level that it starts to have meaning, and the other thing is being in profits and how much in profits, and even if a person might make it through more than a whole cycle, he might be able to consider continuing to mostly accumulate and maybe not having any desperate need to withdraw any value from his holdings until a bit of time has passed, maybe even a couple of cycles or more.

There are some guys willing to accept that they may well be into fairly heavy BTC accumulation for 10 years or more and then maybe to reassess their situation after going through that level of BTC accumulation, which also is likely to mean that their average cost per BTC is likely going to continue to go up, especially if the BTC prices are mostly going up and there is no real expectation of being able to buy on dips, if dips may or may not end up happening from any given price point...even though in retrospect we can see that the last couple of years had been a dip, and some folks did not realize that it was a dip, even though the presence of the dip should have had been fairly obvious.


It sounds as if you have stopped accumulating bitcoin FinePoine0.  So does that mean that you have enough bitcoin?

You are not free from the trading mentality if you believe that buying and just sitting on it is going to be enough, and it sounds like you are just considering the point in which you are going to sell.. which also is not a long term commitment...

So yeah if you stopped buying, then you have already likely been losing opportunities because maybe you are either presuming the price is going to come down or you are planning to sell when the BTC price goes up, and then where is that going to put you?  Are you going to be better off in the long term or just some short term pleasure that you were able to get from "buying low and selling high?" which is also known as trading.


There is no need to diversify into shitcoins. 

That is nonsense.

Now if you build up your BTC holdings, you might start out just by only building your BTC and your cash, and at some point you might want to consider whether it would be better for you to diversify your investment into other kinds of investments besides dollars and cash (perhaps property, stocks, bonds, commodities and/or cash equivalents), but that does not mean that you would need to get involved in shitcoins at all or that it would be helpful (rather than a waste of time, energy and money) to get involved in shitcoins..


You don't have to reach fuck you status prior to considering diversification, and so each person needs to try to consider for himself how comfortable he is with ONLY having exposure to bitcoin and cash, and there may be some advantage to having some of that cash that is potentially building up in other kinds of assets... .. so when does that trigger?  It will be different for different people.  Some people come to bitcoin and they already have other investments, and I am not even necessarily suggesting that any of the other investments into areas such as property, stocks, bonds, commodities and cash equivalents are going to be very helpful, but sometimes the more that any of us builds up our bitcoin holdings, then the more logical it will be to have some off-sets to that which could be cash, but we might feel that we are too vulnerable if we have 5 years of our salary in bitcoin and 1 or 2 years in cash..

And, so yeah if we are thinking about fuck you status as a possible goal, then that generally would be considered 20-30 years worth of income using something like the 200-WMA for valuation of your BTC holdings rather than using BTC's spot price since BTC's spot price tends to be all over the place.. so we would need to be making a reasonable assessment of the value of our BTC based on the bottom price rather than the current price or any potential top prices, even though if we sell any BTC we are going to be selling at spot price and maybe even trying to sell during points in which the spot price is relatively high based on expectations.. but that is once we get there, so we have to get there first in terms of figuring out how much BTC to accumulate and sometimes if we might want to make sure that we don't have all of our value in just one thing, especially once we might get to a point in which we have several years of our income in bitcoin.. and I cannot say exactly what each person might choose before they start to diversify, even though I know diversification is not needed in the beginning, but some level of diversification could even be started before reaching a whole year's accumulation of value in BTC.. and sometimes those diversified assets/currencies could be part of an emergency fund and/or reserves depending on how liquid they might be.. . but they would be things to sell prior to selling BTC since BTC would likely be considered the main thing to be wanting to accumulate the most so not wanting to prematurely selling any of it..


If you are brand new to bitcoin, you should consider all three options of accumulation: Lump sum , DCA and buy the dip.

If you are investing for several years, you might not want to consider some of the options, but even if you have been buying for 1-2 years, and if you all of a sudden have extra money. .Let's say you get a $3k pay out for something. .then all of a sudden you have $3k.  So how are you going to treat that extra money?  I would think that you would want to consider all three categories, even if you might choose not to employ all three categories.. but the default still might be to put 1/3 into each, but if you think that we are more inclined towards up, then you might want to put more into lump sum in order to better prepare for up, since we cannot know if there is going to be further down.. so maybe you end up deciding to put 60% or 70% into lump sum and then divide the remaining part into buying on dips and DCA.


You can also try to figure out ways to increase your income.


Waiting or even lowering your DCA amount may not be a great idea, especially if you already determined that you don't have enough BTC.  Yet, for sure, everyone has to make these decisions for themselves, and historically there are a lot of examples of guys reducing the amount of their DCA to wait for dips that never ended up happening, so they end up both screwing up their accumulation but they also screwed up their psychology...so sometimes it is better to just keep buying, even if your average costs per BTC is going up. 

Also like you seem to suggest, there are ways to keep buying, but ONLY to reserve part of what you would have otherwise used to buy for the possibility for dips.  No one can really say and each of us needs to decide how much to allocate to each  of these areas, especially if we are trying to figure out if we have enough BTC or not.. and how we think we might be able to get more BTC and is it worth it to wait with some of it.. because sometimes it does help to have some money for those dips that come at various points, and they might come rapidly and other times we end up getting stuck back down in a correction zone.. but the question never really goes away concerning how much to buy and when and whether we should preserve some of that (and how much) for the possibility of buying on dips.


Yep, exactly.  There are various levels of needs, and some are more basic and some can be deferred until later and some might be considered wants rather than needs, so we surely would need to know which category of the needs we have to satisfy and which ones might be deferred and which ones we might want to balance out in terms of whether to treat ourselves to some of our wants, and those can be personal choices, yet as you suggested, the more basic the need, the more we are going to get ourselves into trouble if we are using our basic needs money to invest and/or to buy bitcoin.. So in that regard, if we do not have enough income (or other resources) to satisfy our basic needs then we are going to have to satisfy those first. 

By the way, we could also look up Maslow's heirarchy of needs if we want to consider those kinds of ideas about levels of needs.

The main thing seems to be to get started, and yeah, newbies should be figuring out their particulars, but they still should get started sooner rather than waiting around.  The most important is their own particulars in terms of their discretionary income... and yeah they should be considering these 9 factors, yet even if they don't really know all of the answers the 9 factors, it does not mean that they should wait in terms of getting started right away..

They are ultimately responsible for getting started or not getting started.. both are choices, and people who don't get started in bitcoin are likely going to end up getting screwed worse than those who get started.. and also better to make your mistakes earlier rather than later, but they still have to figure out the main thing.. spending within their discretionary income... and probably having a 4-10 year investment timeline or longer.. but just because their investment timeline is would also not suggest that they shouldn't get started ASAP.


Well don't then.  Get left behind.  That's their choice, and sorry that they are dumb and/or unwilling to look into it..

Sure there are people who don't have disposable/discretionary income, and they won't be able to invest into bitcoin unless they increase their income or decrease their expenses.  Basic financial management ideas that are in the grasp of any person with a bit of practice and thought, and the fact that a lot of folks are inclined to gamble rather than invest, then that is a choice and they can have fun staying poor.  Bitcoin is available to anyone, but they have to act rather than just sitting and looking at it.  No one else can act for them.


Well, for their own good, they better figure it out.  There is a lot of information out there, and some information is better than others, and there is some need for critical thinking skills in order to differentiate between good information and bad information.  So maybe they start with something easy, and try to find something in their local area, and if they start out with some custodial solutions then they get used to that adn then move to self-custody later down the road.  Yeah, there are some areas of the world in which it is difficult to get bitcoin or to find someone to sell bitcoin.. so that is too bad for some folks, even though there are bitcoin enclaves all over the world... and maybe some of those people who are in the boonies have to look harder to find some ways to get bitcoin. 

I know that some areas of the world have more bitcoin networks and internet and people promoting bitcoin than others, and those are disadvantages to some people in parts of the world that have fewer options to get bitcoin... So some of those folks are going to end up starting and getting involved in bitcoin later.. and so there are advantages to folks who are well connected, but even folks in well-connected places are not taking actions to establish their stake in bitcoin.

I surely don't claim to know bitcoin availability in all locations, even though I know that there is geographical variations that could disadvantage folks.


Perhaps, but not as much as people likely think.  If you figure out a way to buy some bitcoin and you know that you have $100 per week that you could use, but you don't know about it, so then you start out with $10 per week while you are studying into the matter, and maybe it takes you a few weeks or even a few months to move up from $10 per week to $100 per week and so you can increase the level of your aggressiveness in investing in bitcoin with the level of your knowledge and even getting your shit together in terms of the already mentioned 9 factors.  Yeah, it could take years to get your budget together, including making sure that you have an emergency fund, but if you figure out how to source your bitcoin, it does not mean that you should not get started right away.


It depends on your goals, so if you want to try to achieve financial independence then you might think in terms of your yearly expenses/salary, and if you are able to achieve somewhere between 20 to 30 years of your annual income/expenses, then you likely have reached financial independence.  Of course, you could get into bitcoin with other goals, but I don't consider accumulating bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer to be a reason to then get out of bitcoin.. so usually there would be abilities to live off your bitcoin or to use your bitcoin as a supplement to your income.


If you save 10% of your salary per year and invest into bitcoin, it is going to take you 10 years to reach 1 year's worth of salary/expenses, and so it takes a while to build an investment portfolio, and you are never going to make any progress if you are spending from your investment portfolio.

You choose how you want to treat your investment portfolio, and it is my sense that investing into bitcoin is a 4-10 years or longer endeavor, and many folks if they want to get to fuck you status take 30-40 years or they never even make it to such status, but with bitcoin it could be possible to make it to such status a lot quicker, even cutting the time in half such as 15-20 years, but you still have to get your shit together and establish a sound but aggressive investment strategy that might also involve needs to increase your discretionary income by increasing your income and/or decreasing your expenses.


You seem to be thinking in short-term ways.. so yeah, you are trading.. not investing.. since Why would you need an exit plan if you still don't have enough BTC?  You already said that you don't have enough, which means keep stacking and don't stop.

Who gives any shits that your average cost is $28k?  If you don't have enough then you have to keep stacking, even if your cost per BTC is likely to continue to go up when the BTC price is continuing to go up.

Anyhow, you do what you like, but it sounds to me that you have hardly any clue about what you are attempting to achieve, including understanding the long term potential of bitcoin, including that you might need to consider bitcoin's long term potential so that you might better know why you are accumulating BTC and likely not needing to worry about exit until you have accumulated enough or more than enough, then after that you could consider following some kind of sustainable withdrawing plan and/or staking plan like I talk about in my sustainable withdrawal thread.


We are not at 2017 ATH comparison points.  We are more like at early 2017 when BTC first passed through the 2013 ATH (of $1,163) or maybe we are at late 2020 (when BTC first passed through the 2017 ATH of $19,666).


Fuck crypto currencies (ie shitcoins) they are not relevant to this discussion.


The 2013 high was $1,163 and so BTC passed back through it (and above it) in early 2017.. that was a bit more than 3 years between the ATH being reached again.  This time around with the $69k from November 2021, it was ONLY a bit more than 2 years... perhaps a little more than 27 months.

Since there is no link contained in your post, here's a 2015 article on the topic. My way of attempting to communicate something like: "link or it didn't happen"

You coming off as somewhat crazy... Binance is currently coopted by the US Govt, under strict surveillance.

yeah, sure shenanigans might still happen, but surely not based on the seemingly ill-informed framework that you seem to be coming at the issue.

Think about the matter. Binance was largely a renegade exchange that they US Govt (and probably some BIG players) were afraid that they could not control or manipulate, and now they have way more tools to accomplish such control and/or manipulation. .perhaps not total control, but a lot of it.

That is not even fucking close to what FTX was doing...so it is ongoingly silly to make such comparisons without at least attempting to put matters in to a more factually based framework...  or even using some attempts at logic too.. .


think about another matter that revolves around Tether FUD that ended up largely not being true, so yeah the dynamics are changing where tether seems to be playing along to get along a lot more and acting less like a renegade.. .. so it is good to attempt to update our talking points with some of the dynamics, and surely I don't claim to know all of the dynamics, but I know that there are a lot of attempts to corral some of these various bitcoin related entities (and yeah crypto too).. while at the same time, they (the powers that be, USA Govt, rich people/institutions / other governments) are ONLY able to so much in terms of trying to coordinate their various corralling efforts, especially since not everyone is cooperating.


Well that part is true.. there is desperation to pump various kinds of bullshit, distract and perpetuate disinformation and/or misinformation.. so yeah, I have to agree with you on those angles.... but your framing of Binance as the bad guys is likely ONLY a recent development that still has to do with the US Govt to do the bidding of Blackrock et al to try to keep Binance as controlled as they are able to accomplish under current circumstances.


"Free" will.  

And by using dee fingers.

And, thank you to the forum and theymos for allowing such open dialogue..

If you had not noticed, we (royal and otherwise) can say "almost" anything that we like in these here parts.. ."almost"


ooooo.. nice Iphone that you got there.

You must have "relations" with Tim Cook to be able to get your hands on one of those bad boys.


I get a bit muddled in my use of the 200WMA, but I still think it serves as good bottom indicator so you might modify the levels of your sales (if any) to cause them to be smaller if the BTC price is anywhere close to 25% from the 200-WMA or lower than that.. and you can feel more comfortable if you are making BTC sales when the BTC price is way higher than the 200-WMA... like right now, we are right around 118% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure there have been times in 2017 that we were 1,400% higher than the 200-WMA and times in 2021 only ranged between 200% and 500% above the 200-WMA (the earlier 2021 price rise achieved a higher percentage above the 200-WMA).

I think that my attempt at outlining a raking system works much better than the sustainable withdraw based on the 200-WMA (with fillippone's Google Spreadsheet to help with any guy wanting to manually input his own numbers into the raking system) because it is purely based on figuring out BTC price rises as trigger points for sales.. and sure you can account for how for you are from the 200-WMA, but the more important thing is just thinking about your comfort level in shedding off some cornz so you can get to the levels that you would like to have for fiat in reserves.  Of course, we know that bear markets could end up seeming like they last 2-3 years, and you never know if they could get longer in the future, but it seems that we are more likely to have up, up and more up before entering into any bear market - even though there  are likely going to be several fakeout "crashes" along the way... so yeah, sometimes it can be nice to have some fiat in reserves because we never really know when the actual crash (meaning the longer one that had been typical of prior cycles) is going to come for real (I am presuming that it will, just a matter of exhausting the exuberance first with some meaningful blow off tops and perhaps some rug pulling or other shenanigans that justify a decently long period of crashening).


I'm sure that your friend will find your message to have had been very helpful... It is almost like saying:  "I told you so," but in a more subliminal way.

For anyone interested in hearing some words from El Salvador's 2023 Miss Universe candidate (Alejandra Guajardo - the bitcoin contestant), she is in this episode of Simply Bitcoin.

She also had a full hour video interview at Bitcoin Beach in this YouTube video.

You are back to pumping Tbills and Ibonds?  Ibonds lock up your liquidity for a period of time, especially if you want to earn the interest that they proclaim that you are going to get at some point.  So, maybe UnDerDoG81 might be worried about such liquidity.  I am not sure how easy it is to get in and out of Tbills or how the interest works with that.

Of course, in most cases, USDT does not pay interest or yield, but as I suggested earlier AquaWallet seems to at least allow for the holding of USDT without exchange risk... and maybe guys have other options for holding USDT.   

I don't give that many shits about USDT in terms of pumping it, but just talking about it as a dollar pegged (stable coin), it is not just backed up by T-bills, and it seems to be over-collateralized, so it holds other assets besides T-bills.. (including bitcoin, dollars in banks and probably some other assets that you can look up with their attempts to try to be a bit somewhat disclosing with aspects of their collateralization efforts)..


A lot of that sounds gruelling, yet somehow we have to figure out ways to live with any negative things that might have had already happened to us without letting them break us into some kind of self-destructive mode - if possible.. and surely some people do end up falling into self-destructive mode.. so if you can see some ways forward that likely are not going to put you back where you were earlier, then at least there could be some way to salvage something out of the carnage, even if it might only be knowledge and further building of character.. if that can even be possible with elders.. since so many of us can become more and more disgruntled as we get older since there are a lot of challenges that come through the aging process, and some folks have more challenges than others in terms of health and/or various misfortunes.

Another thing is identifying bitcoin as a place to store some value and then staying with that conviction, and hopefully you at least have another 4 years or more in front of you, even though we never know, which can be one of the challenges if we put too much value into something like bitcoin if we are wanting to have some liquidity, too... so if we overinvest into bitcoin, we could end up needing some of that capital (liquidity) at a time that is not of our choosing.. especially if we are elderly.. including maybe not sure if we have more than 4 years as our new investment timeline... which from my perspective, if we do not know if we have 4 years as our investment timeline, then that would mean underinvesting rather than overinvesting as someone in their youth might more easily be able to justify doing.


There is the push-up challenge too, even if you are not able to do full push-ups or get up to 100 per day.  They seem to have helped me quite a bit, even though I have been sore for the last 35 days since I started.. but still getting stronger and no major injuries from it, so far.

I personally am thinking that resistance training is better than cardio for the elderly, even though there could be justification for both, there is a problem of loosing muscle mass, and so ever since I started this push-up challenge, I have realized that I had been doing too much cardio and probably not sufficiently preserving my muscle through resistance training (to be fair, I did increase my resistance training about 6 months prior to the push-up challenge, but the push ups were a great addition, since it is so easy to do them almost anywhere at any time, even though sure there could be some places where it might be a little embarrassing to see an elderly doing 10 pushups in the parking lot)


We know that money does not buy all the good things in life, but surely we likely realize that if we have any kind of fixed income, it is not keeping up with the increases in prices and/or the various debasements of fiat, so surely that remains part of the justification for keeping some value in bitcoin and being able to defer spending it while it is building up to a certain appreciable size.. or whatever you can, if your timeline might not be long enough to really build it in any grand way.


Seems that no one can really buy the solid relationship kinds of things.

That is one way of trying to hone in on the potentially interesting parts.  I am going to try to not respond to the non-controversial parts, even though I see that there are several areas that you seem to be provoking... let's see if I can refrain if it seems to be just getting repetitive.


You see?  I cannot help it to roll my eyes with your wannabe lecturing..


That does not really help for me, since I find it patronizing to be describing how others are supposedly feeling in those general ways, and I surely don't set any of my positions based on sentiment, especially since I set my orders both on the buy side and on the sell side based mostly on my expectation that I don't really have any clue which way the price is going to go, except for assuming that it overall it is going up, even though it will go up and down in the short term, so if I set my orders in that kind of way, then I can keep my own holdings mostly balanced betwen how much cash I have and how much bitcoin I have.


But who is ever going to be completely 100% long?  and maybe I am quibbling with you a bit over semantics...  especially when I look at my own situation, and it seems like I mostly gravitate around 96% to 99.5% in bitcoin in terms of the portion of my funds that are allocated to bitcoin.. and in mid-to-late 2022 when the cash that I had that was allocated to bitcoin was nearly empty, I added more cash in there from other supposedly non-bitcoin related funds, so I would not run out of cash allocated to bitcoin in order to keep buy orders open and then moving my buy orders down, and at that time, I had buy orders that sooner or later ended up going down to right around $12.5k... so some of that money had been previously not allocated to bitcoin, and probably it was drawn back out at some point after the BTC recovered mostly back into the upper $20ks and maybe into the $30ks - because it was ONLY recently that I removed all of my outstanding  BTC buy orders between $12.5k and $19k-ish

Like I mentioned before currently I have buy orders that go down to $20k, so that money would add up to whatever I have in cash that is allocated to bitcoin and I might have some other cash that I could throw into the mix if for some reason the BTC price corrects below the amount that I have cash available (like I did in mid-to-late 2022).. At the same time, sometimes if I might have some extra real life expenses, then I might draw from some of that money that is on the lower end of my buy orders, largely like I did in 2021 when I largely removed my buy orders between $8k and $19k, .. so then this time around, if I draw from the money in the account, then the buy orders between $20k and $21k disappear.  

I just did a quick look at my numbers, and it looks like within my bitcoin (crypto) allocated funds, I have right around 2% in cash (that would be those buy orders on the way down to $20k), and about 0.4% in various shitcoins, so that would leave me with about 97.6% in bitcoin, and yeah, I don't know why my bitcoin percentage seems to continue to stay so high because I am always selling on the way up, and so if the BTC price does not correct back down, then I don't end up buying back. .and part of what I am thinking is that I am probably selling way too little, but I still feel like I have way too much cash, so it is not really a bad problem to have and has been going on at least since 2021, but surely did not feel as pointed in 2022 and even most of the way through 2023 since the extra money had potential to be used for the outstanding buy orders that had chances of being filled... ..so probably I should not even be feeling that overly cash burdened because it already seems quite likely that my problem is ONLY going to get worse since the BTC price is going to continue to go up and I am going to continue to sell. and still the value of my BTC is going up around 95% more than than the amount of cash that I am pulling out (if we continue to go with the around 5% withdrawn for every doubling).

Anyhow, my point is that it is never 100% or zero, there is a kind of balancing that is going on that gives few shits about which way the BTC price is going, because another thing that is going on is that if I ever need any extra cash, and I don't want to draw from the cash that is already there, then I can easily sell some extra BTC at any time because if I also go with my proclamation that my average cost per BTC is around $1k, then what difference does it make if I end up selling some extra at 69x profits or 40x profits or 128x profits?  It does not make a lot of difference, probably because the same ongoing problem exists in regards to my ongoing not spending enough.  


Well I had been giving some further thoughts to your seemingly skepticism of the bullishness of the various ETF players, and surely I am not opposed to ideas about their shenanigans to potentially manipulate the market if they were able to get away with it without getting caught, and so those kinds of ideas make sense in terms of having some concerns about whether the UPward BTC price moves are organic rather than some kind of a potential trick.. yet on the other hand, if you are getting caught up in some kind of technical mumbo jumbo that the timing is not exactly correct, then it seems to me that you are getting overly technical, I mean if that could even be a genuine position and you are just not trying to be somewhat subtle bear troll... a bear troll wannabe... an aspiring bear troll sorcerer .. which ultimately then would boil down to some kind of a similar thing as a FUD spreader, since nobody could really believe that kind of nonsense of strict cycle conformity.. as if king daddy gives any shits about having to stay within the confines of some kind of a strict cycle...  


Stop it with the sentimental nonsense that adds up to bullshit.  Yeah, bitcoin has tended to follow a 4-year cycle, but there is also a decent amount of variation within the cycle including overshoots and undershoots, and sure after it all plays out then it all makes sense, but when  we are going through it, there can be deviations from some of the seemingly strict parameters.. and another thing bitcoin barely has 4 of these 4 cycles and we are in the middle of the fourth one. depending on any of us might suggest that they start and end, and that would also be a bit of a myth..

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, there were already folks proclaiming that bitcoin had already had like 4 previous Gartner hype cycles, but they just did not fall into a four year pattern, but guys were still swearing that there had been four earlier ones, and you could even see them on the charts.. and now, it is a BIG so fucking what, because now we are calling them 4 year cycles, and yeah, I agree that they are 4-year cycles until they are not, but you should not be getting your panties all in a nit because you are expecting some kind of conformity including the current dumb-ass shit proclamations that bitcoin had never previously gone above its previous ATH prior to the halvening, so therefore we either are over heated or we are going to have a left leaning cycle or a cycle that explodes earlier and blah blah blah... sounds like nonsense to me that is trying to either ruin the party or to be a party poop.. which is largely the same thing.  You party poop.
 

Oh gawd.. why would you even say that we are not still in it.

3 ups and 1 down.

we are in the second up.  So why are you making such a big deal out of some earlier price movements? and seeming to try to arrive at premature conclusions that probably don't mean anything.. and causing some difficulties believing that you are being genuine in continuing to try to back up your thinking on the matter.
 

 Ok.  Consolidation.   Good luck with that.

Yeah we are in 2020, but more like late 2020 as having past the ATH and therefore going UPpity from late 2020 until April-ish of 2021... and then at that point, perhaps we can reassess whether some kind of consolidation might be necessary or not... We are not going to get a whole year of sideways and/or only slightly up... that makes hardly any sense based on actual context of what seems to be happening with actual BTC.. and yeah it is not just about sentiment.  Fuck sentiment..You are trying to act as if everyone is overly excited and it is going to come tumbling back down.. yeah right.. good luck with that, too.

Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting that it is necessarily going to be without a lot of volatility with our seemingly good chance move of going from here into the $120k to $180k range.. so there will probably be quite a few periods of volatility and even fake-outs along the way, and there might even be some tragedies too, such as some scandal or crazy ass legislation and/or various bank failures, maybe even Coinbase or some other BIG exchange with drama and/or scandals. Maybe or maybe not we will have drying up of buy pressure, and surely even some of the ETF buyers right now, might want to panic sell once we start to get into the $120k region or if we correct a lot after reaching various higher levels.. and I have hardly any clue how it is going to end up playing out.. but I am sticking with my system and if it goes up I am continuing to sell within my already established increments and amounts and if it comes back down I will be buying back and let's wee what happens, my position is likely not going to change that much except I will have more cash and maybe a few less bitcoin or maybe I will just continue to have similar number of bitcoin.  I don't know.. I have some numbers already plotted out so I doubt that it is going to deviate very much from the numbers that I already have plotted out... even though I will have to update as we go and if it ends up that you are correct and we stay between $40k and $60k that is fine too, but it just seems like a pretty unlikely scenario.. maybe 20% to 40% odds depending on how your might describe the framing of such supposed consolidating prediction that you have.

By the way, you keep repeating that you have advanced out of your degenerate gambling phase, but you are still spouting out seemingly outlandish theories.


Because new kinds of buyers are continuing to come in and because bitcoin happens to be the greatest asset ever known to man, if you had not noticed, and it is far from mature.  You are trying to treat bitcoin as if it were a mature market, and it is not .. so whatever, good luck with your idea of a premature blow off top and a lack of a rebound and/or lack of a second pump coming later... .Of course, you could end up being right, but I have my doubts.... and you seem to be overly bearish and/or pessimistic and seeming to attribute too much validity to ideas of sentiment while ignoring various pieces of physical evidence.


The way that the 200-WMA is currently moving up, it may well be closer to $50k rather than $40k by the end of the year, and even if you recall our correction in the middle of 2021, the price got down to something like $28k, but the 200-WMA was then around $13.5k to $14k.. so even at that point, the BTC spot price corrected down to being at least 100% higher than the then 200-WMA.  You can look up some of the specifics, here:  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So my point is that the BTC price does not tend to correct all the way down to the 200-WMA, except for the most dire periods of the cycle, and so I am not just going to assume some dire period is going to come, including right now, it is not very likely that even if the BTC price corrects a lot that it will even get within 25% of the 200-WMA.. yeah, I know anything can happen, but there is no reason to presume outrageous outlier kinds of corrections merely because you have a feeling that something is not right.  Personally, I prefer to mostly attempt to stick with what is more likely rather than presuming outlandish, even though my actual buy orders are going to remain at least 10% or more below the 200-WMA.. because I hate getting caught without any cash when those outrageous price moves come at unexpected times, so even though financially and psychologically I am prepared for the outrageous to happen, I don't build some kind of base case about those ideas and go spouting off on the inter-webs how the sky might fall, even though it looks solidly blue and cheery.


Not as many miners will have to switch off as you are conjecturing if the BTC price doubles and/or triples again from here, especially since the BTC price already largely doubled since October anyhow...  So, yeah miners have their varying costs and they also have the contention of the ongoing and mostly increases in the difficulty levels, too.
 

Well the temporary crashening of the BTC price in 2020 took place nearly 2 months prior to the halvening, and so by the time the halvening arrived in May, the BTC price had mostly recovered to where it was at before the March 2020 crashening.
 

Fuck that dumbass theory.  Hashrate does not lead price.  Even though there is a bit of a symbiotic relationship, for the most part hashrate and/or mining follows price, so the price gives less than two shits whether the miners are profitable or not, and the miners on an individual level have to figure out if they are going to mine or not or cause their operations to be more efficient and/or various decisions based on their perception of their costs, their operational set up, current BTC prices, expectations of future BTC prices and perhaps some additional factors.. yet the price gives no shits about whether miners are profitable or not or if they are coming into the space and/or leaving the space. The difficulty will adjust downward if they leave and upward if they continue to pump out hash power.

Yeah, I know about the China bans mining situation in 2021 and the fall out history from that.  None of that supports a theory that mining hashpower leads price, even though there surely was a lot of drama in 2021 around that and even speculation about whether China might be attempting some kind of attack... so yeah, we love various kinds of drama in bitcoinlandia.  Every cycle has various examples of drama and some of the drama pulls the price in one direction or another and maybe these are aberrations or they can be expected to happen again, yet without knowing on what scale or in what direction.. such as if the USA were to attempt a wide-spread attack on miners. .which yes it could happen, but it might not, too. .so from my perspective, there is no reason to get all doomy and gloomy about the BTC future price based on something that may or may not happen and may or may not be enough to overwhelm (or off-set) other things that might be happening at the same time... and yes, frequently weak-handers are shaken from their coins by the various drama and even assertions that bitcoin is "really dead" this time that is not likely to stop.. we are still in a war through bitcoin's whole history, and the battles are different from what they were in 2017 and in 2021, yet those guys who got scared out of their coins may well have ended up screwing themselves during some of these contradictory, ambiguous and crazy times.. which yes are going to happen again, but just in some different form that may or may not resemble some of the past battles...


 This is your way of saying that we mostly agree on this point.  Fine.  Whatever. Makes me feel ting-el-leees.


No problem.. just keep moving upwards with your target. that seems like a good idea.  Sooner or later you will end up being correct.. probably by the time that you say that we are going to get $80k from $160k, then you will end up being correct.  


I consider that some of the things that you say are a bit outrageous, but yeah, if I cannot get you to put your money behind one of those assertions, we might not quite be in bettable territories... not that I am inclined to bet, either.  I only prefer to bet when I start to conclude what you are saying is a bit outrageous, which if you want to bet on my assertion that sub $40k will not be ever reached again, I might be willing to take that kind of a bet, but I know that a 50% correction could happen at any time, but usually it is more likely once we have had a bit of a run upwards, and I am not even thinking that it is too likely from $80k, $90k or $100k, but it might not be so unlikely that I would call it bettable.. I mean if I might consider it is ONLY 30% to 40%, but you might consider it to be 70% in the other direction, then we might be able to consider odds on it rather than a 1 to 1 bet... but we would need to have some numbers.... .. the first 50% correction that I see having greater than 50% odds would be $160k; however, on the other hand, sometimes if we go up too far too fast, then there could be a time in which a 50% correction could come prior to $160k.. but from my perspective we are still not in the territory of moving up too fast, and maybe if we go up to $100k within a week or two, then yeah, maybe it would be eligible for a 50% correction based on how quickly it were to go up, so I am not against your overall idea of a 50% correction being possible at some point, but I doubt that if we went to $80k in the next week or two that would be enough of a too much too soon kind of a price movement.

In other words, I am having trouble seeing anything bettable in these general propositions...even though you seem to already be assessing that a 50% could happen any time right now, which seems to suggest that you are already concluding that we are moving up too fast right now.

As I already mentioned, I might be willing to bet that any correction in the coming year will not go to a point that it is less than 20% from the 200-WMA... but that still might be a bit of a difficult one to measure exactly, but I would not be planning to bet very much anyhow.. maybe 0.001 BTC or something like that... and maybe using the lightning network for our escrow.. .if we were to need escrow..  I am not sure. .I probably would not necessarily need escrow with you, as compared to some other members who seem less trustworthy in terms of their seeming shiftiness. Even though I find you annoying sometimes, and I am even starting to suspect if you are genuine in some of your arguments, I am not necessarily committed to the idea of an escrow of a bet of that size.. even though an escrow could be a fairly straight-forward thing, except if something were to happen to the person escrowing..


I would rather work with specific numbers, and I kind of dislike the idea of two legs needing to play out.  So for example if you say that any high point in 2024, the BTC price will correct 50% from that and you will be able to set your orders, but also win a bet from me.  I don't really like it since I agree with the idea that 50%s can happen any time when the price moves up to quick, so I am having trouble really putting my finger on this.  But I would be willing to bet that sub $40k will never be reached again (at least not in 2024) or alternatively that the BTC price will not get below 20% of the 200-WMA in 2024.

I might be willing to bet you that the high BTC price in 2025 will be higher than the high BTC price of 2024.. that might be something that is bettable, but it would not resolve until January 1, 2025 at the earliest or December 31, 2025 at the latest.


You are making me do work.. let me see if I can find it..   Ok.. here it is.. I think I found it..


I am pretty sure that it was this above PS paragraph coupled with the rest of your post in which I was triggered by such seeming bearishness in these here seemingly bullish times, and in that regard, I thought that it was something like this paragraph, about the upside and the downside.. but now that I read it again, it is seeming that my paraphrasing you from memory was not quite what you seem too had been saying.. especially if this was the original phraseology that I had read.. ... and maybe I was reading into your PS based on the whole context of your post in terms of my thinking that you were being way too bullish and trying to convince us that we might need to sell some cornz to protect our lil selfies.. but now that I read it again (and maybe in light of our further discussion of your ideas) it appears that might not have been what you were saying exactly (except maybe through subliminal messages that I had felt from the whole negative nancy thing)..  so I am not sure what had triggered me, exactly. .Maybe I was just in a bad mood and I was thinking that you were trying to coax us (myself and the rest of the guys in these here parts) into selling our cornz in order to support your claim of an imminent 50% correction.


You might be correct.  I might have overstated the case.


It is possible.  Does anyone, including yours truly, welcome the prognostication of a 50% correction during times like this when we are having so much fun, and also I was thinking about your post in the context of your earlier comments that we were going down to the lower $30ks and we had already gotten a 21% correction down to $38.5k, which seems like it should have been good enough for you to claim victory, instead you were claiming more. . and so when you came back to the thread and you were continuing to call for a 50% correction, it just continues to seem nutso to me... so yeah, I might have read more into your assertion than what you had intended to communicate.

This could all be my way of saying sorry.


 If you want to go against the dominant opinion, then no problem, but still merely going against it might not lead to accurate results if you don't really have much basis for going against it.  You have largely given your basis, so no need to rehash all of that.


Yes, we can agree on the comment that you are great... except when not.  


I would not want to bet that far out, but I might be willing to bet that 2025 will have a higher high than 2024..which surely is speculation that is hard to really know, especially since 2024 still has about 8.5 months left in it.



I consider our current highs to be considerable.  We have two days of weighted volume that are higher than ever before in bitcoin's history.. two full days, so far.  From my perspective, that is nothing to sneeze at.

Look at this:


And the underlying data (the raw data), as I type this message is even higher ($69,115) than it was for March 9th, even though we are ONLY 6 hours into the data for March 10th as I type this post, so surely a price reversal could drag the number down out of the top place.

I find it kind of funny that guys do not want to recognize how bullish BTC's price performance of the last weeks have been, including several days of close to ATHs in weighted averages.


That is bullshit. Yes.. it could happen, but we do not argue our base case based on pie in the sky bullshit that "could" happen. So what?


It seems that I mostly talk about HODLing, and various ways that guys can (or should try to) accumulate BTC, and I also assert that they get to a point of over-accumulation prior to selling any BTC.  Of course, there is spend and replace, too.. and sure once anyone gets to a point of over accumulation, like I did in 2015, then they can change their strategy to maintenance which is not the same as trading since there is no price prediction involved, but it is a kind of raking.. which we have already beaten that horse to death, no?


You are trying to predict price moves.  I don't do that in terms of my portfolio maintenance.


Fuck shitcoins...and trading too.. I don't do either of those.  


Are they trying to steal my language?


I don't trade.  I already reached my accumulation level in 2014.. but then I over accumulated in 2015..and so I have been overaccumulated ever since, especially since I ONLY sell small amounts at various points on the way up.. that is called raking profits..and it could also be called buying back if the price falls, but I don't care if it falls or not. I prefer the price to just continue to go up since that is the better way to go for me..


You are quibbling, and probably whatever point you are trying to make is not even as important as you are trying to make it out to be.


Seems like we define things differently.


I don't see any need to get into this.  Do you have any question about what I am doing in terms of the way that I hold coins and how I do my accounting?  I am sure that I have touched upon some of this, to the extent that it might be relevant.  I am not a trader, but I have accounts on exchanges.. and sometimes I talk about my sell orders that have been continuous since $250... which may well be called raking, as I already provided the link so you would be able to get the idea if you might want to consider something like that.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921  It is optional whether you would want to use the buy back provisions and/or how to set them.. and you can also plug numbers into the Google spreadsheet that fillippone created in relation to it.  It is not a trading strategy, even though it seems similar to trading, there is little to no price prediction involved. .. but I don't recommend anyone does it until he is sure that he has already overaccumulated BTC.. It is not meant to accumulate more BTC, so you should already be in a position of over-accumulation before beginning to follow such a raking technique.


There is no reason to HODL more than you need, but if you haven't gotten enough, then you likely need to HODL while you are in the process of building up your stack until it reaches an overaccumulation status, then you have more options once you reach that overaccumulation status..


You are imposing your ideas of HODL and account management, which it just sounds like you have a different way of thinking about matters and framing it and account for what you are doing.


I already have a system that I have been using, and it is working quite well... even though I have been doing some experimenting with some other accounts that are falling in the sustainable withdrawal category, which you can look more into my ideas of sustainable withdrawal through this post.


You seem to be presuming.  i might have about 4%-ish of the total value of my stash on exchanges, but I have some BTC that are involved in some other ways too... that might be considered as part of the sustainable withdrawal categories. I am still working on various ideas related to the sustainable withdrawal concepts.


I don't even know what you are talking about.  If the price doubles I am authorized to sell up to 10% of my stash, but it seems that my own practice is closer to 5%, and yeah, maybe it is not even that since if I only have less than 4% of the value of my whole stash on all exchanges, but I have sell orders that currently go up to $150k and so that is more than doubling from here.. . so it appears that I am actually selling much less.. so yeah.. sucks to be me, I am selling less perhaps..even though I am authorized to sell more.. so maybe I have to up my selling game...


you are probably reading too much into my presumptive lack of security from your point of view.


I already do, but it is currently supplemented by a raking practice that I have been following since 2015, and it is working quite well..so I am not needing to change anything, except maybe to sell more..


Already done. Already implemented since 2015 -ish with little tweaks along the way.


Maybe you are starting to catch on?  If so, then great.  it might be called raking rather than playing swings.. so maybe I mis-named it, even though I do buy back if the price falls.. so there is that non-trading approach, too.

That one might be a good variation.

I remember trying to do the "Rocky one-arm pushup" when I was younger, and I couldn't really do them, but I remember trying.. and maybe I would have been able to do one or two.. maybe?  I cannot really remember too well, and of course the clapping pushup too. that was a bit easier... I remember being able to do that, but right now, I cannot even do the clapping pushup, but the clapping pushup could become possible to be able to progress into being able to do them - with a bit more training and working up to getting to that level.... .   

I did have my first set of 50 pushups today, but I had to revert back to 35 for my next set and 40 for my set after that and 30 for my set after that.. so that's o.k..  it was still a very good day to have a my first 50 set and  since 50 is ONLY something that I barely just was able to accomplish and I did 45 a couple of times in the last few days so it is getting better, even if I might have to do some future sets that are in the 30 to 40 range.... .. Maybe my next personal goal would to be able to do more and more and maybe get up to 75..  .. and so I am not sure if it realistic, but having various push-up goals with several guys in this thread does seem to help me to build my own tailored goals .. and still soreness... and seemingly little by little progress, and no injuries, yet.

Actually, I am not concerned about whether his sister-in-law adopts bitcoin or not, but I would be concerned about either getting involved in supporting her ideas to gamble with bitcoin or being roped into her way of framing the reasons for investing in bitcoin. So, in that regard, I think that it is best to stick to the real reasons to invest in bitcoin and to describe the preferred practice techniques for long term investing, and in the end the sister-in-law can do whatever she likes.  She can follow the long term, or she can follow her original ideas and/or she can follow some modified variation that is a hybrid combination of the preferred long-term approach  and the decision will be hers to make, and it might work out for her and it might not.  I think that it is not a good idea to compromise with folks and then potentially get sucked into their variation of a plan that you outlined, and also you may or may not know their situation, but you can still outline what you believe to be the better approach based on whatever information that you believe that you know, whether they agree to follow your recommended approach or not.. and even if they agree to follow your recommended approach, it is also good to make sure that they understand that they are completely responsible for their own investment choices, whether to invest or not and how to invest if they do choose to do it.



 I am not sure if I agree with that way of framing the matter.  I think that we can say that bitcoin is an assymetric bet to the upside, so if you do not leverage or otherwise gamble with your money, then the most that you could lose is 100%.  On the other hand, there are decent odds to be able to perform at least as well as any other investment option, including possibilities to outperform other assets. There is no guarantees which way bitcoin will perform, but it seems that with the passage of time, the strength of its investment thesis is getting stronger rather than weaker... .

while at the same time past performance is not a guarantee of future performance or even faction of future performance similar to the past, so if someone in the past was able to get 1,000x or 100x in the past that does not even mean that you are guaranteed to get 3x in the future, even though bitcoin continues to appear to be a strong investment, especially investing over the long term helps with the lesser guarantees that come from up and down short term volatility and the 200-WMA has historically moved up so that show the trend is up, but the 200-WMA remains a lagging indicator...even though it has always been trending up.. at least so far.


I agree with this part.. Ultimately, anything that she does is her responsibility, whether she follows your guidelines or not, yet I am not going to agree that it is a good idea to get involved with playing around with the creation and following of short-term plans, even though there should not be any problem to listen to her plan and then present your plan and see how she reacts and if she has any questions and at the same time figuring out how much detail to give her based on how interested that she is.. because if all that she wants to do is put $1k down and then just sit on it until it reaches a certain percentage of profitability and then to get out.. that's her choice. 

It might work, but it is not really meaningful and it seems to be something different from what a long term investor would do, but it still might end up working for her.. even if it might not be as advantageous as figuring out a longer term plan and then employing it.. but many people have short attention spans, and that is part of the reason why they like to gamble and not to commit to something long term, like bitcoin... especially since long term might cause them to have to think about it in a more detailed way, and they don't want to think and they don't really even want to take responsibility for thinking and that might be part of the reason why the sister-in-law was asking @danadc what to do.


Usually someone with an irregular income would need to keep more emergency funds, reserve and float - especially if they want to keep buying bitcoin during periods in which their income is low or non-existent, and yeah, they also might have thresholds  that if their income is not greater than a certain amount then they are not going to buy bitcoin at all.. so it would not be automatic that they would not be able to buy bitcoin, but they might have to hold money aside and try to tailor their bitcoin buys based on their cashflow situation and sometimes there could be known periods of low income in advance and even known periods that the income will go up in the future, so they can kind of plan around that, but still have some financial cushion to account for the uncertainties that might come from having such cashflow irregularities.


Even if they have a lot of expenses paid by parents, they still might need to try to anticipate their cashflows, because even if the parent's might also give them money, they may well have limits in how they are going to be able to get, and even if their parents serve as an emergency fund, there may be limitations with that, too.  so it is still likely a good idea to consider the various categories, even if the source of income might not be from regular work (salary).


I like the idea of weekly buys, but yeah, if the amounts are so small then there could be some value to making the time over a longer period of monthly and/or quarterly.. but I would still try to encourage the idea of more frequency, if and when possible, even though I agree there could be circumstances in which longer periods might be justifiable.   

That is still pretty specific, and of course a correction from $250k to $120k is barely over 50%, so in that sense $75k would be right around 70%, which seems more realistic.. so gosh, who knows?  We could have several 20% to 50%-ish corrections between here and $250k, but who even says that $250k would be the top, since that is not even quite half of gold's market cap.. ...so maybe more realistic to be thinking some where between $250k and $600k as a reasonable top for this cycle.. even though I still find it difficult to assign very high values to upside scenarios, since I would prefer to error on the side of conservatism.. even i am tentatively thinking that the upside for this cycle could be $2 million or more, with about a 0.5% likelihood... so the other 99.5% of other possibilities would have to be contained below that.... meaning between $70,184 and $1,999,999.99.  Nice if it would end up being a 1 and 8 9s.

I am not going to ask, but there are a lot of things in life that suck.  I had a BTC theft that was quite significant in size too, but luckily I was able to retain most of my then stash... so it did not go to a level of losing all of it.. and so I had a period in which I did not want to say anything about the matter, and I still tend to be a bit judicious in some of my revealing of any details - even though it is worth noting that for me, I had come to realize (and recalculate) that I did not need as many BTC as I had accumulated, so there was a path forward in order to reconsider matters, and also to fix a lot of the vulnerable areas.. and mine was largely related to a sims attack and it had several components that were kind of crazy in terms of how sophisticated the attack seemed to be and then even mistakes that I made too... and a few areas in which I just got lucky.. in terms of little quirks that caused the loss to be less than it could have had been.

Hopefully you either were able to retain some coins in order to have a base upon which to rebuild, even if it might not be as much.. or you are ready, willing and able to start to rebuild from scratch.. especially since you already know the value of having coinz.. yet I know that some folks could become disgruntled with some of these kinds of matters, especially if there is something like government involvement or some various kinds of injustices that were involved that might not make a whole hell of a lot of sense.

One time in around 2017 or 2018, I had a person file a small court claim against me that was truly trivial, stupid and the person was truly in the wrong - but feeling self-justified to file a claim for a good/service in the carrying out of a contract, yet in the end I ended up having to pay a judgement for that and it was a pretty small amount, but something that the person truly did not deserve... and so maybe that judgement plus other various complications in running a business and sometimes having various disputes with customers and also sometimes with government agencies wanting to sometimes get extra cuts that seem to be not warranted, and other kinds of problems of people trying to rob your business in various ways - including physical break-ins.. I decided that I was putting way too much time and efforts into something that was not worth the headache.. including that it was costing money and tying up capital.. ... so I guess I am just trying to point out various injustices.. that can sometimes contribute towards of web of considerations and reconsiderations in order to consider another possible road forward.. and yeah, hopefully, bitcoin remains part of your way forward and even resuming accumulation if that might be part of the current better way forward.


All of that about selling on the way up seems reasonable, but I don't know how you sell and then not end up with some kind of vulnerability in terms of how you are going to keep your money, unless you find someone who will give you physical cash or something similar for your BTC sales.


That is true.. USDT could be possible.. so then are you keeping it on exchanges or in some wallet.  You can store USDT on Aqua wallet, if you don't want to keep that value on exchanges.


That seems to be fighting with the hypothetical to go that extreme.  So for example, if someone is starting to feel like he can start shaving some off without putting much if any of a burden on his stash, then I don't see any problems with that.. even though you could be correct that getting over €150k is easy peasy... in other words, I don't see any reasons to let the perfect become the enemy of the good... in other words good enough to start selling, but surely the person who is doing the selling has to be able to live with the consequences that he might have had been able to get more if he had waited.. but I surely am not a waiting kind of guy since I think that we can set buy and/or sell orders in such way that the price is coming to us. and so we already planned what we were going to do once the price gets to the spot that we had already set.. which ends up being incrementalist and likely less gambling than if the numbers are set at such heights that may well not end up getting met.

@UnDerDoG81 can also play around with his numbers by plugging them into fillippone's Google spreadsheet that is based on a model that I had presented in this post.

Looking like a fool, and actually being a fool seem to be two different things. 

Another thing you mention is accumulating bitcoin for a few years so they can cash into profits, and sure I suppose that could be considered as investing, yet for bitcoin I have a hard time considering anyone who would be buying into bitcoin for periods that are less than a full cycle (which is 4 years) to be an investor rather than a short term trader.. which is not the same as investing, at least from my perspective.


Fuck crypto.  Who cares about shitcoins?  This thread is about bitcoin. .so if you are into shitcoins, I would agree you are probably a fool, especially if you had not figured out bitcoin first and maybe limiting your exposure to shitcoins to less than 10% of your bitcoin stash.


Having a stop loss also sounds like a trading mentality rather than an investing mentality.   An investor might have a plan to buy more BTC if the price drops below his initial investment point rather than selling, and a lot of time the idea of investing also comes with the concept of commitment, which is where the expression of not investing more than you can lose.. so there may well be a commitment that comes with investment to ride the investment down to zero, unless there might be some strong evidence that broke the investment thesis, beyond merely the price going down.. 


If someone gets overly emotional, they probably had invested more than they can afford to lose and/or they did not have a plan for down, which should have had been either to hold through it or to buy more.


How do you know that the BTC price is going to go down?


How do you know that the price is going to go up?


That's no answer to anything... you are largely just saying "it's your money, do what you like"