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841  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2013, 09:08:37 PM
Bitcoin is by design encouraging saving and thus attracts people who would like to save. (But have only shitty ways of doing so thanks to the inflationary monetary system  Grin)

The is the argument against a gold (or bitcoin) standard by the FED and banking status quo.

Under today's credit fiat system, it makes no sense to "save" money in currency since it continuously inflates. Instead savers are suppose to invest the money into businesses, capital spending, stocks, etc.

The problem is today no one saves this way, instead savers (those with disposable income over expenses) spend money frivolously on vacations/restaurants/crap instead of saving for the long term, and many of those who do invest do so in bubble type assets (i.e. large houses).

The fiat credit system is suppose to work in theory, but in practice it obviously does not. Hence bitcoin. It provides a real escape for true savers.
842  Economy / Speculation / Re: Balls of Steel on: December 06, 2013, 09:38:38 PM
I personally think it takes balls of steel to sell at any time.

The chances of just never getting to buy back are too great.
843  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Pools (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] profit switching auto-exchanging pool - middlecoin.com on: December 06, 2013, 08:37:14 PM
Holy cow!

It seems every decent AMD card is sold out EVERYWHERE. I could not find a 7950, 290, 290x or anything else remotely similar anywhere. Prices on ebay are absurd.

After mining for a little bit with my measily 5870 in a desktop, I decided today it was time to build a proper 4-5 GPU rig. Looks like that is not happening. It looks that I could also sell the 5870 on ebay for more than I paid 2 years ago, but it's too profitable to let go.
844  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: India = massive potential on: December 05, 2013, 07:19:08 PM
can we just expand this to "any country that has a fucked up economic/financial system, which is basically the entire world."

Well.... In democracy, the ruling political parties are forced to take up more and more "populist" measures. This is the case everywhere, be it the US or India.

As a rule, in a welfare state less than 10% of the population will engage themselves with productive activity. The remaining 90% will be dependent on this 10% to give them means for living.

Take India's case for example. Out of a population of some 1,250 million there are only around 33,739,124 (33.7 million) income tax payers. A very large part of the population is dependent on subsidies and handouts.

The challenge for the Indian government is to feed the remaining 1,216 million with tax extracted from the 34 million. Now there is a delicate balance here. You can't squeeze the 34 million too much (Atlas Shrugged like situation will emerge). And you can't lower the tax beyond a certain point (you'll lose votes from the 1,216 million).

When the balance is altered in favor of the productive population (by reducing subsidies, benefits.etc), the government will collapse.

When this balance is altered in favor of the unproductive population (when government punishes the productive population with heavier taxes), the financial system will collapse (as it is currently happening all over the world).

This is why a constitutional republic that limits government has been proven to be so successful in the past. Government is limited in how far it can take and finance populist measures. But that ship has sailed and we're on the long downward path again now.
845  Economy / Speculation / Re: China just made Bitcoin pretty useless within China on: December 05, 2013, 05:38:43 PM
The Notice clarify the status of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not issued by a monetary authority, it does not have the status of legal tender and obliged payment status of money, it is not money in the true sense. Bitcoin is a specified virtual commodity, it does not have equal legal status with money, and it cannot and should not be used as money on the market. But, the general public have the freedom to participate in Bitcoin trading as a commodity trading on the internet on the condition they carry their own risk.

The Notice requires, at this stage, all financial institutions and payment institutions must not use Bitcoin to set price for product or services, not buy or sell Bitcoins, not act as a market maker for Bitcoins, not underwrite insurance related to Bitcoin or cover Bitcoin in insurance, not directly or indirectly supply other Bitcoin related services, including registering,trading, clearing, settlement; not accept Bitcoin or use Bitcoin as payment tool; not start a Bitcoin and RMB or foreign currency exchange; not start a Bitcoin saving, trust or mortgage service; not issue Bitcoin related financial services; not use Bitcoin as the investment in trusts or funds.

Thanks for the link, very helpful.

My read of the above is actually very possitive. All China is saying is BTC is not an official currency and so banks can not offer services around it, set markets, offer BTC accounts, etc. However individuals are free to use it as a commodity provided they are willing to accept the risks.

This places Bitcoin in the exact same situation as Gold. Banks do not offer gold "accounts" or act as gold market makers or list prices in oz of Gold. Instead gold is treated as a commodity.
846  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2013, 10:55:01 PM
This board has done exactly 900 pages in less than 1 month.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.38840

How do we rank that? Is this a posting bubble?
847  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2013, 09:55:52 PM
I have no problem paying for taxes if the government uses them well. Frankly the libertarian utopia doesn't convince me, Bioshock is a testament to that Tongue. But you should try it to see if it works although I wouldn't hold my breath.

Libertarians do not believe in zero government, that is liberal scare tactics. What libertarians do believe in is limited government covering essential common good services (roads, courts, education (not union education), etc), which today comprises a fraction of the bloated US government.
848  Economy / Speculation / Re: If this was taught in middle school or below. Bitcoin would have started 1973. on: December 04, 2013, 04:47:18 AM
So people say that Jefferson never said that, is there any sort of source or anything? Not that I disagree with him if he did, but still.

Good quotes summarize an obvious truth well.

Who cares whether or not Jefferson said it, is the quote any less relevant or truthful if Jefferson stated it or if someone else came up with it? Jefferson is known to have been very distrustful of a banking establishment, so its not misrepresenting him.

The quote apparently first appeared in congressional records in the 1930s which still shows significant foresight.
849  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why Bitcoin may now level off... on: December 04, 2013, 02:13:34 AM
It's interesting, most people are only interested in "making dough" and completely miss the real benefits and implications of bitcoin across the board of human life on earth. That said, it's not about the value of bitcoin, it's about the non value of FIAT. What a high price in USD means for bitcoin, is not that bitcoin is great, but that FIAT sucks.

The people interested in "making dough" keep selling for short-term profits and miss out on multiple stages of exponential ramp ups. Yes they are making really good money, but it is the people who see the real benefits and who hold long term who are making the real money.
850  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 04, 2013, 01:57:26 AM
Idk, the more I think of it, the more ways I find to launder it. And even so, he could and probably will opt not to do it now and just take little more handle-able chunks for the rest of his lifetime.

His real problem imho are the drug and mob lords probably chasing him for the rest of his life as well. I'm just guessing but there's probably some cartel money in there..

There's no chance he'd sell them for fiat anytime soon. He'd be busted in no time. That's why I am saying he would do it with alts, he won't be able to hide it with bitcoins only, specially not on the way he is doing it at the moment. He needs to mix the heck out of them with alts and save 20% of them, it will still make him rich and he'll be able to sell them off the exchanges more easily.

There is no reason for him to even bother moving them at all for awhile. Since the coins/address is known, he can just lie low and not touch the address for years until something comes along that allows for complete history removal (such as zerocoin).

I personally think this is a fasinating situation. Bitcoin only provides pseudo anomyity, and there is a public ledger stored forever for people to analyze. Whenever he does finally try to access the coins there will research papers written on how to trace and track them, either through the ledger, IP tracking, etc. It will be fasinating to see if he is able to find a free and clear exit somehow, or if the coins become stuck. If they become stuck then it proves bitcoin is not anonymous. At the same time it shows how secure Bitcoin is, here is an address that is known to contain $100M in stolen funds, yet no one even governments can touch it.
851  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2013, 09:00:36 PM
The growth in power of multinational corporations is already signaling change. If Bitcoin becomes the medium of international exchange, nations will become increasingly irrelevant in the coming decades. Eventually it will be all about the sphere of influence of the largest multinationals, with many smaller client corporations operating in that space.

If I am paying income income tax to Google instead of Uncle Sam in 40-50 years, I will not be surprised.

This already happened at a more national scale in the late 1800's, ever heard of standard oil? The people finally woke up and voted to tame the largest corporations back down in influence. As long as governments provide the people at least a pretense of a democracy then it is possible to bring the corprations in check.

Whether people will wake up in reality is debatable, the red team blue team pretense has fooled many for a long time....
852  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com on: December 03, 2013, 07:46:20 PM
I can not understand this either and KnC makes no sense in not offering Saturn/Mercury miners "in mass".

Any ASIC business usually develops a chip and then runs it for at least 1 year. Now that their first design is proven, bugs are worked out and NRE costs recouped, KnC could do large volume runs of the older line and price these things at levels that blow the competition away. Everyone will flock to them since they are proven. Or they could just offer the ASICs and let the 3rd party board developers run with it.

In the ASIC business the high-volume player always wins in the long run, it makes sense for any successful bitcoin ASIC vendor to take this route early to establish themselves. IMHO KnC is opening the door for Black Arrow or other similar ASICs to take a higher volume route with 3rd party board developers.


Doing that may kill the goose that lays the golden egg. I think the reason Knc is doing limiting batches is to avoid driving up the difficulty to the point where it is no longer cost effective for them to manufacture new ASIC devices.

Every machine Knc delivers effectively pushes down the value of their future devices, which is one of the great paradoxes of the zero sum bitcoin mining game.

Agreed that for a given BTC price, there is a hash rate limit that in the long-run limits sales. However, if KnC does not do this someone else will (and are).

You can think of it this way, if the total market for Hashrate is X, KnC could either: 1) fill a large percentage of that total market hashrate or 2) let others sell that hash rate. I'd argue all they are doing by delaying the inevitable is allowing other firms to supply a larger percentage of the market.
853  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com on: December 03, 2013, 07:26:54 PM
A reasonably priced batch of Saturn/Mercury type units would sell out no problem at this point since KNC is 'proven', but all their store shows is the Neptune.  

I can not understand this either and KnC makes no sense in not offering Saturn/Mercury miners "in mass".

Any ASIC business usually develops a chip and then runs it for at least 1 year. Now that their first design is proven, bugs are worked out and NRE costs recouped, KnC could do large volume runs of the older line and price these things at levels that blow the competition away. Everyone will flock to them since they are proven. Or they could just offer the ASICs and let the 3rd party board developers run with it.

In the ASIC business the high-volume player always wins in the long run, it makes sense for any successful bitcoin ASIC vendor to take this route early to establish themselves. IMHO KnC is opening the door for Black Arrow or other similar ASICs to take a higher volume route with 3rd party board developers.
854  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] Black Arrow Minion 28nm DIY Chip Distribution on: December 03, 2013, 01:29:53 AM
Can you confirm that the minimum order is 20?


No minimum order, feel free to order 1 if you like Smiley

Went to the link in your signature, says I have to order 16

Where do we order from where we can just order a few?

I encountered the same thing. Also, if we order just the ASIC for now, but later decide to use the board assembly service, how will that be handled.

Thanks for running this, looks interesting.
855  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: DRILLBIT SYSTEM Miners - Thumbs (Temp NA), 8 Boards (0 left) on: November 30, 2013, 05:44:45 PM
Just so I know what I am looking at, who has 8boards with NO issues?

My one drillbit 8 board hashed away stable all night at 18.5Gh/s with int:52:2:850 settings, board has one high speed fan on the heatsink side and is cool to the touch.

Given that a few people are reporting power issues, my inclination is to keep using the lower power 850 settings until we know more.
856  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: DRILLBIT SYSTEM Miners - Thumbs (Temp NA), 8 Boards (0 left) on: November 30, 2013, 06:36:33 AM
I've got one board that hashes at full speed, but puts out about 75% hardware errors.  I tried another board with the same power/usb cable and it works just fine.  I've got three boards up and running on three different computers at the moment.  They all seem to be averaging about 21.8 gigahashes at the recommended start settings.

Chad

What are your "starter" settings?

My current settings are --drillbit-options int:53:2:850  This produces slightly higher results than 'stock' (int:40:1:850).

had some issues with 950, but will continue exploring
Trying --drillbit-options int:52:2:950 I am getting
'timing out unresponsive AsicX', the Drillbit 8 board doesn't start.  went back to int:53:2:850 and all is fine.

Cheers

I am seeing the exact same behavior with 1 dillbit 8 board and a raspberry pi, 52:2:850 works fine but [anything]:2:950 causes the ASICs to timeout and then the board becomes unresponsive.

With 52:2:850 there are no HW errors, but the hashrate is ~18Gh/s. Could this be a heating issue? If there was a heating issue I'd assume the HW error count would go up, but maybe there is some hidden throttling happening?

I'm going to leave it running overnight to see where the speed averages out to by the morning.
857  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do you see Bitcoin in 5 years? on: November 28, 2013, 05:06:08 AM
Heads - BTC passes the $100K mark and replaces gold in our financial system. Everyone on this site spends the rest of their lives congratulating themselves on being so smart.

Tails - Bitcoin crashes and goes back to obscurity.  Everyone on this site kicks themselves for the rest of their lives for not cashing out and taking very reasonable gains while possible.
858  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is the BTC/LTC price changing so much on: November 28, 2013, 02:08:33 AM
Atl coins that provide no new value over bitcoin, but are simple copies, IMHO are the biggest threat to bitcoin in general. I have a ready response to all the doubters questions except for the proliferation of alt coins...
859  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's Current Market Cap vs. Liquidity on: November 27, 2013, 09:01:35 PM
Is currently greater than nearly 40% of the S&P 500...

yet has a minute fraction of the liquidity of any of those...

and isn't traded on any major exchange (although hopefully the ETF will help out a bit with that).

I think I speak for a lot of people when I ask what the fuck is going on here.

A huge portion of that "market cap" is not on the market at all. Add up the inventor's 1M BTC, the FBI's ~150K, many of the large individual strong hands who have several 10K each in cold storage, lost BTC and investment funds such as BIT, and I think an easy 8-9M of the current 12M are not even in the market for trading. These are BTC that are waiting for Bitcoin to take over and are holding out for that. So if you adjust for that, the current market cap of "trading" BTC is actually much smaller and more in line with liquidity.

Think of the physical gold market (not the paper gold market). The physical gold market is very very tiny compared to the amount of gold out in the world. This is the nature of reserve assets held as a store of value, I think we will see similar liquidity for BTC as for physical gold.
860  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 27, 2013, 05:32:53 AM
And are the current fiat currencies going back to zero before or after bitcoin ?

I will bid my 1BTC to your 0.5BTC that the US dollar ceases to be an international reserve currency before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).
I will bid my 0.5BTC to your 1BTC that the US treasury defaults on debt before BTC trades with a daily VWAP under 1 dollar (US2013 PP).

That is sort of like heads I win tails you lose. In the cases here where you win the btc recieved is worth a lot while in the cases you lose the btc given is worthless. ..
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