I'm bored stiff with the current price action. Not hanging out here or looking at charts at all lately.
I won't have anything significant to invest until Jan and I have no interest in selling what I'm hodling for under $4k/BTC, so there's nothing to do.
If you mine, then you can discuss equipment, how to make it more efficient, etc. Just buying bitcoin is incredibly boring, I agree. |
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You need to post your projection on how many bitcoins you need to have to be a millionaire (in bitcoin $ value) by 2017 and 2020. My prediction (based on the best fitting model I've seen is): End of 2017- ~$362,000/BTC END of 2020 in this case theoretically produces $3,300,000/BTC, which is a bit too much, therefore even the best model is unlikely to be exactly correct, but these are the numbers. model: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0If this crazy ass prediction is anywhere close to being right, even in 2025 my wife will be so glad she married a nerd. She can't stand it when I talk about bitcoin now... lol she will nag you to sell it at 10K, sorry pal  |
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If home mining isn't completely dead yet, it will soon be time to pull the plug and let it slide into darkness.
Casual home miners have 2 advantages over mining farms: 1. They might not care about electricity cost Some of the miners run their rig as heating devices, some of them are living in a apartment that electricity is included in the rent. Once the electricity cost is gone, they are forever profitable 2. They can run in underwater Even the electricity cost is higher than the coins, miners just regard this as a hobby and using those costs to get some mining pleasure, like paying money to play a game: Operating your little gold mine is fun On the contrary, large mining farms are business oriented, if they could not sell the mined coins at profit, they will take a loss. No business can run too long with a negative profit, the larger the scale the less likely they can hold on As a result, those mining farms will be shutdown by a sustained high difficulty and low bitcoin price, and mining rigs will be sold to those fans who does not care about the electricity cost To prevent such scenario from happening, large mining farms might seek ways to lower the electricity cost, team up with large power supplier or build their own power grid. Another way is to sell the heat as a service, for example providing warm water for apartments. so that they never run underwater. But both are long processes, without a firm believe in bitcoin, normal farms will just shutdown Because of the exponentially higher cost of lower chip nm process, high efficiency miners will be very expensive thus incur a larger risk even before running, just like few people purchased FPGA miners in GPU era Maybe in future, majority of the mining chips will be built into heating devices, and sold into high latitude area or heat providing companiesI agree. Re mining/heating. It is somewhat true, but the most benefit is when the cost of heating by electricity is lower that the cost of heating by natural gas. Right now (in US at least), natural gas is cheaper, so although you get heating benefit, I calculated that is it is at most 30% of miners' electricity cost. |
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You need to post your projection on how many bitcoins you need to have to be a millionaire (in bitcoin $ value) by 2017 and 2020. My prediction (based on the best fitting model I've seen is): End of 2017- ~$362,000/BTC END of 2020 in this case theoretically produces $3,300,000/BTC, which is a bit too much, therefore even the best model is unlikely to be exactly correct, but these are the numbers. model: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0 |
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Issue for SP20... noisy?
Just the 212 CFM 61db fan  Otherwise quiet as a mouse  Most homes in Houston do not have a basement (shifting ground is apparently to blame). I cannot host mining equipment that produces excessive noise at home, otherwise new SP20 looks good. I am surprised that mining manufacturers are not trying to accommodate such customers as myself. Multiple S1 noise was as much as I could handle. S3 is better. Sptech promised initially that Sp20 will be quiet, but it is not, apparently. |
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I have had 39 SP30s running 2.5.12 so far for about 12 hours 16 minutes with no apparent issues. If I see no problems with 2.5.12 by next morning, I will probably move the rest of our machines over to it. Otherwise, I will probably move everything back to 2.4.23.
I've had a plethora of "disabled (bist cant start, stuck X)" errors on the remaining 100 or so SP30s we have running 2.5.6 in the mean time. It seems every few hours, I have to restart cgminer on 5% or 10% of our machines to get them back to full hashrate. Very annoying, but so far the issue has always been resolved by restarting minergate.
I've also had several reports of machines on 2.5.6 showing half hashrate at the pool even though I see full hashrate. These issues have always been restarted by a minergate restart.
I saw some much more serious problems on 2.5.7 during the 36 hours we had machines using that version. We saw about 10 machines get "Loop serial failed x" error messages (where x is a loop number, between 0 and 9 inclusive) and fail to start until one or sometimes two ASICs on that loop were disabled. After a few hours, many of these ASICs could be enabled again, but about 25% of the ones that failed are still non-operational. Currently, I think there are 9 ASICs which we lost on 2.5.7 which have not recovered.
It's possible that the potential ASIC-damaging bug in 2.5.7 might still be present in 2.5.12. I haven't seen any indications of it yet, but I also haven't had enough machines running on it for long enough to be certain. On 2.5.7, I saw the loop serial failed ASIC damage thing with about 5% of our machines per day. At that rate, there's only about a 63% chance that I would have seen it if it were present at the same rate in 2.5.12 with 39 machines running half a day.
It is now looking like the issues we've been seeing in our datacenter with the potential ASIC-damaging bug was not related to version 2.5.7 per se, but is instead temperature-related, and we only noticed it now because the temperatures in our DC only recently started getting really close to 0°C. Version 2.5.13 does not appear to fix these issues. Zvi is looking into it further. The other two bugs were definitely firmware related, so you should still avoid 2.5.6 and 2.5.7. Findings are still tentative and provisional, and investigation is ongoing. Interesting. Did you try NOT to evacuate the heat that miners produce, but instead direct large fans on a stack of miners, so heat is distributed in the warehouse? This might be a naive question because you certainly have a large density of miners. I am curious because one of my miners is hosted in WA. |
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 It's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. Thanks for the update. It looks so similar to last time, when it was double bottom. https://i.imgur.com/n2tEMYf.pngIt does. If we bounce with the same long term ferocity as in 2011, BTC might reach $13,000 in 12 mo by just matching the trend. A bubble could make it 50K (~1.34 on the graph in 12mo) or 60K (~1.5 on the graph in 12mo), but I don't expect a bubble in 2015, maybe in 2016. If we will go just to -0.75 of a trend in 12 mo (matching 2012), then it will be at $6200 in Nov 2015 with a possible bubble in 2016. In other words, IF you believe that we finally bouncing in a long term trend, then this IS the time to make money. The alternative scenario is that: a. we are OFF the trend permanently or b. we will reach a despair hour at -2.25 of the trend. |
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As title says. I'm doing some calculations before I buy some mining hardware, any help would be great thanks. Approx 5 mo IF difficulty rise is limited to 20%/mo average, which is realistic, in my opinion. it aint realistic at all ... others, including myself, seem to agree on 5-6 mo, maybe 4 if BTC price skyrockets upwards or >6 if it plunges. What is your number? |
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https://i.imgur.com/NSooYC5.pngIt's bouncing at -1.5 again. Last time was the dip to $275 on 5 Oct, when vwap=305.8. The line never goes below -1.5 since Dec 2011. Interesting. Do you dynamically adjust the formula? When I link to the latest, trend prediction is $1439, but when I connect to several days earlier link, then it is $1654. In any case it is around -1.50, but I am curious why two different links result in a variable outcome (1439 vs 1654). |
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da fuck are ya?! nostradamus?
all big player are expanding, new more eficient miners are coming, that means higher diff jums!
this is my last "discussion" post here, if you want to discuss, open a thread in mining speculation. Here is the trend: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.pngIt is going down, efficiency be damned. SP-30 is worth at least $3100. |
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Conservative estimate
With an average of an 8% difficulty rise over the next 365 days will return 23.7 coins
Price as of now is 33.11 coins
This doesn't include power costs after the 1/3/2015 either
Easy to show just how bad a deal this is
your 8% will become 4-5%...recalculate... |
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is it reliable? Would it be of S1, S3 family (small, standalone, no PSU) devices or one of S2 and S4 family? My bet is on it being a hybrid between S3 and Prisma (AM). Maybe 1.2-1.3 TH for 1-1.1 BTC, hopefully. |
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As title says. I'm doing some calculations before I buy some mining hardware, any help would be great thanks. Approx 5 mo IF difficulty rise is limited to 20%/mo average, which is realistic, in my opinion. |
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So you're calling a bottom at 230?
My crystal ball isn't good enough to make definite calls.  I see conflicting signals. This chart  seems to predicts 6-week drop to 230 with following steep rise. From the other hand, weekly MACD histogram seems to predicts 8-week rise starting next week. (Sorry, can't show it, bitcoiwisdom is down). Choose either call or make your own. Where are we at on this prediction, Wary? Either 275 was THE bottom and we are already on upcurve or there is one more dip to go. So, basically price will go up or down  I'm in. It would be interesting to see updated graph from jl2012. If he uses ln (I think that he does), then current point is ~-1.52=ln(360/1654) We can either reverse from here or lose another 30% on a final technical plunge or some negative news. In any case, I agree that it is 50:50 between these two scenarios (current low vs low at -2.25). I bought some BTC today, though. |
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Agreed amazing opportunity for someone. Biodom help me with the math though...how many days you seeing until a positive ROI is achieved?
I don't know what you do with them: do you know difficulty 3-4 mo in advance (of course, NOT!), do you calculate the residual value, savings on heating bill, value for tinkerers and enthusiasts? |
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I can offer 1.5 BTC shipped to Germany.
Will ship to US only, sorry. See new price in the first post 0.56 BTC (on average), including shipping to US. Compare with todays Bitmain for ~0.71 BTC (including shipping to US) I can also give you four S3 coupons (0.035 BTC value, expiring on 11/3) for each miner that you buy from me. |
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First non-hashing benefit (noticed today):
Temperature outside is 64F (~18C), temperature in the house: 74-75F (23-24C) WITHOUT heater turned on.
Thanks to my small S3 "collection"...
Will see later in the week when night temps drop to 50-55F (10-12C)
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this is not only the machine
hosting on these 3 : 300 a month/machine X 4 months
3600 usd in hosting
so 12000 usd - 3600 usd = 8400 usd
divided by 3 = 2800 usd a machine
cheap i would say for a machine you can own tommorow
Actually, it IS a good offer at ~10% less than the current ebay bid at $3100 PLUS they are hosted, so can hash immediately. |
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So at current prices...you are seriously asking 33.62BTC for only 13.5TH? If you cut your price in half it is a "decent" deal.
Don't pay if you cannot afford it. Buy from Spond for 10.9 BTC. They will deliver in about three weeks. |
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