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881  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading is based on probability. on: July 25, 2020, 10:34:22 AM
A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.

As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.
It is not only trading that is based on probability but life itself. It has been proven that no person nor software that can accurately predict the market as our trading decision is based on the accumulated mind. It is decision we take base on faith and fear. However the patience traders always end up in profits.

Patience is also a double-edged sword

I've always been saying that patience is overrated (as well as confidence)

The point is, if you lack knowledge and understanding of the market and the situation, then no amount of patience is going to help you. On the other hand, armed with true knowledge and genuine understanding, you don't need patience at all for the simple reason you would know exactly when to trade and when to stay away from trading. Psychologically, impatience is a result of feeling lost, i.e. not knowing what to do and when to do it
882  Economy / Economics / Re: How long will it take banks to phase out physical cash completely? on: July 24, 2020, 11:38:38 PM
After all, CBDCs will provide virtually the same benefits of crypto (speed and low costs) while retaining the same properties of physical cash (especially price stability)

They will not offer the most important thing

Which is predictable and controlled supply (read, hard-capped). And this also happens to be the first part of Bitcoin's value proposition, the other part being its decentralized nature (which CBDCs also lack). All the advantages of CBDCs (whatever those might be) will become instantly irrelevant once central banks start printing these "new" currencies like there's no tomorrow. That's a doornail into the coffin of any CBDC out there. Put simply, a CBDC is just fiat on juice
883  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - $500 Daily Race! 30% Rakeback! DICE with the best autobet mode on: July 24, 2020, 11:01:27 PM
Let's say you are aware 18 hours a day, you want to spend all of that working, why spend even 1 minute of it on something that doesn't pay as well as the other one? You will give all the 18 hours to the one that pays well. You wouldn't go 9-9 , you wouldn't go 12-6, you wouldn't even go 17-1 because in the end the more you spend on bigger pay the better for your income

Despite all odds, it makes plenty of sense, however

Indeed, all things considered and equal, you wouldn't spend most of your time on something which pays less (that I certainly agree with). But it still does make sense to put at least some effort into something which pays less even if your total income will suffer. The point is, it is never "all things considered and equal" in real life, and you don't know how it is going to play out in the long run. It may turn out that spending (wasting in your speak) some time and effort on a seemingly less profitable activity will pay back manifold in due course. Especially when they finally ban you from WinDice
884  Local / Новички / Re: За вами уже выехали. on: July 24, 2020, 10:27:49 PM
увы, johhnyUA был прав. речь именно о регистрации права собственности. как уже писалось выше прописка ничего не решает. можно прописать и выписать по решению собственника или продать квартиру вместе с прописанными в ней людьми) А вот передача прав собственности на недвижимое имущество очень деликатная тема. и если неправильно передавать и неосмотрительно принимать, то может уйти недвижка в дальние дали. и как вы правильно написали - ищи свищи ее потом. прецедентов - уйма

Окей, можно подробности в студию?

Без указания имен, времен и так далее. Как записывал и, что самое главное, как потом выписывал из договора купли-продажи. Или по принципу "обещать - не значит жениться"? Ну то есть сначала думал оформить жену как покупателя, а потом вдруг передумал? Если так, тогда почему передумал - уже не вдаваясь в юридические подробности? Интересен сам ход мыслей, и, думаю, что не мне одному. Может жена увидела какой меркантильный муж попался ("обещал - и не женился") и решила сыграть в ящик (зачеркнуто) в ту же игру? Типа живи один в своей халупе
885  Local / Альтернативные криптовалюты / Re: Дно которое все ждали on: July 24, 2020, 08:37:14 PM
Дно вроде заканчивается, крипта вроде начала оживать с началом роста цены на биток. Но что то он на отметке 9-10к замер пока что, отката быть вроде не должно сильного.Хотя х.з. Grin
По графику видно что крипта как раз на реальном дне, и очень много проектов упали в десятки а некоторые и в сотни раз. Но я боюсь представить себе что будет если дед сейчас сходит на дно) к примеру на 3-4 тысячи, тогда вся альта свалится в ад.
Ну, для многих ваш прогноз в 3-4 тыс. - это не дно, это крах или апокалипсис. А если говорить о дне, то оно относительно и точку относительности ставите именно вы. Если считать с 2017 года, когда все было на хаях, то да, дно однозначно. Но если взглянуть на всю историю существования, то не все так и плохо. Тем более, мы видим, что после обитания на дне океана, крипта постоянно растет

Пора немного освежить память

Напомню, что не так давно, а именно в марте месяце этого года (этого, Карл) биток одномоментно сходил к 4к (а на Bitmex ушел и того ниже). И это был никакой не крах и не апокалипсис, а всего лонг-сквиз. Но самое главное не это, а то, что такие прострелы могут и, скорее всего, будут происходит и дальше -- как только наберется достаточно длинных маржинальных позиций
886  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading is based on probability. on: July 24, 2020, 07:33:22 PM
Tossing a coin was an extreme example

But it served a purpose. While tossing a coin, you can be more or less certain that your chances are fifty-fifty. However, this is not the case with trading. The point is, you may think that your odds are good, say, 90%, but the real odds (at least as far as probabilities are concerned) can be quite different, and sometimes entirely different. Put simply, you may not know the real odds, and that seems to be the case with the majority of traders most of the time
Actually tossing a coin does not require any knowledge and trading is all about knowledge and the ability to read the market so we can't compare the tossing of a coin or a dice with trading. Yes, maybe people who randomly buy bitcoins and sell at higher price can be compared or those who buy any altcoin without prior research and due diligence

That's not so for two major reasons. First, tossing a coin does require a lot of knowledge, i.e. if you have enough knowledge, tossing a coin stops being, well, tossing a coin in the sense of a random event. In this way, it is more than applicable to trading. Further, and this is second, your prior research is no guarantee of successful trading at all. Indeed, if you do know the market exceptionally well, have years of valuable trading experience, and enjoy powerful insights into the assets you trade it becomes a kind of informed coin tossing for you

But you will be in minority, like one in a million
887  Economy / Economics / Re: Business / private sector is dead on: July 24, 2020, 05:14:14 PM
If you were referring to big businesses, they were actually not dead and it is somehow impossible to just happen that instant because owners of big businesses are really that rich people already. 

If you were referring to small businesses, well I think possibly some or most of them are dead due to the reason that owners did not come up on earning anything during quarantine and they were the ones that is directly affected on the temporary closing that turns out to be permanent because of the quarantine.

small and big business are in the same situation now so why call small business dead ? just because they earn small   ?  but they also know how to save and for sure they have a savings now that help them sustain thier livin

Small and big businesses are in the same situation, as we all are

However, it would be a mistake to equal them. Big businesses are big because they have many product lines, and their production capacities are often located in different places, sometimes in different countries or even parts of the world. If something goes wrong with one product or one place, they can always relocate and close that product. For small business, it is more often than not the end of the game. I'm actually curious why people would ever say that big businesses are as vulnerable as small ones
888  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank Digital Currencies: a Threat or a Blessing? on: July 24, 2020, 04:02:53 PM
If the money supply increase were published on a blockchain, I can't imagine it would make any difference. "We're trying to prevent a depression" would probably suffice as a good enough rationale in either case

And since monetary aggregates still get published on the Web, it doesn't change much. On the other hand, we only see the stats, not the process itself as it develops and unfolds in real time, i.e. after the damage has already been mostly done, and we are left to face the smoking ruins, so to speak. In this manner, seeing with your own eyes how the central bank starts to pump money into the economy, and steals your purchasing power from you would be tremendously interesting and probably disturbing (unless you hold bitcoins, of course)

That's why it is never gonna happen in real life
889  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Las Vegas Casinos are open - end of the Pandemic era. on: July 24, 2020, 11:11:58 AM
From the looks of it, as I understand this article that I have just read, looks like the local government of Nevada is not addressing a simple question many in the media are asking - Would there be a shutdown of Casino's in Nevada. Looks like they are dodging the question and even the Governor is not giving straight forward answers. The casino owners say that the question is not theirs to decide and they just left their casinos open for tourists who supposedly wants to escape it all - Covid or otherwise. For me, that is a sign of inaction and incompetency

It could be interpreted in a different vein, though

This may be a sign of inaction, of course, but it is not necessarily a proof of incompetence. The government officials have probably come to realizing that they can't do much, and doing nothing is the best course of action under given circumstances. Basically, they let everyone decide for themselves what to do and not to do, to stay at home or go outside, perhaps, to visit a couple casinos
890  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank Digital Currencies: a Threat or a Blessing? on: July 24, 2020, 10:05:58 AM
Even if the supply model of a blockchain-based project like Ethereum can be changed, what about a centralized currency run by a single entity, that is to say, a central bank? So no matter what kind of Bretton Woods they suggest or come up with again, without something that would actually stop them in their pursuit to work around the hard cap or peg they set forth in an agreement, this agreement won't be worth the paper it's written on
Well, if they were serious about such a hard supply cap, they could include it into the Constitution, if they find the political majorities for that. A change of this rule would be possible, but very difficult. However I don't see that occurring at least for the short to medium term because monetary policy is still renowned enough in most political and economic ideologies

They could just peg it to gold or whatever, and get done with that

Indeed, they would most certainly discard this peg eventually (as it happened after Bretton Woods with the US dollar redeemable for gold), but they could just as easily ignore what is written in their constitution. Not even speaking of countries like Russia where the constitution has lost all of its meaning as the legal basis of a nation. And economically, hard-capping fiat doesn't make a lot of sense. It is not the lack of a cap vigorously followed through that turns fiat into a weapon of mass impoverishment, but its misuse by central bankers
891  Local / Новички / Re: За вами уже выехали. on: July 24, 2020, 09:03:18 AM
Если нет детей, то прописка ничего не решает

Собственник может как прописать кого угодно (в разумных пределах, конечно), так и выписать в любой момент. Другое дело, что если квартира была приобретена в супружестве, то тут уже возможны разные варианты. Вполне можно попасть и под иск о разделе "совместно нажитого имущества" (о разделе имущества супругов), а если есть родные дети, то это будет практически дохлый номер выселить -- "прекратить право пользования жилым помещением" (если мамаша, конечно, не алкоголичка или наркоманка)

Ты наверное не правильно понял - он записал на супругу. Тоесть собственником по сути была она

Я думаю, что я все правильно понял

Нельзя квартиру взять и "записать" на супругу в качестве собственника. Собственникам она может стать либо выкупив ее, либо получив в дар или в наследство (по завещанию, например, или по факту состояния в браке). Во всех этих случаях шансов успешно оспорить сделку очень и очень немного, и только через суд (например, восстать из могилы, найти другого собственника, предъявить справку из дурки). Поэтому речь на 99% идет о регистрации супружницы на своей жилплощади -- временной или постоянной. Это обычная практика на тот случай, если с тобой что-то случится нехорошее. В этом случае у супруги больше шансов стать наследницей в последующей грызне между родственниками и свойственниками
892  Local / Новички / Re: За вами уже выехали. on: July 23, 2020, 10:06:05 PM
Другой пример - жена. Если не брать в расчёт посиделки "под шафе" с подругами то ещё действо и "договорняк" с левым Васей, то первое, что приходит на ум - бракоразводные войны. Кто не понял - статистика в помощь... Любой более менее толковый юрист в этой теме скажет, что женщина, к разводу, готовится сильно заранее и незаметно

Подтверждаю слова данного постера

У меня подруга (зачеркнуто) соседка постоянно строит коварные бракоразводные планы, даже пару раз заявление в суд подавала (правда, потом забирала). Я даже больше скажу, женщина не только к разводу готовится заранее и незаметно, но и к замужеству, и даже к знакомству. Как говорится, Петя еще только сказал привет, а Маша уже вышла замуж и родила троих детей
чтож и я внесу свои пять копеек: по глупости так чуть не лишился жилища. по наивной вере(любовь до гроба все дела) записал на супругу свежекупленную квартиру, благо отделался легким испугом и вовремя все переписал

Если нет детей, то прописка ничего не решает

Собственник может как прописать кого угодно (в разумных пределах, конечно), так и выписать в любой момент. Другое дело, что если квартира была приобретена в супружестве, то тут уже возможны разные варианты. Вполне можно попасть и под иск о разделе "совместно нажитого имущества" (о разделе имущества супругов), а если есть родные дети, то это будет практически дохлый номер выселить -- "прекратить право пользования жилым помещением" (если мамаша, конечно, не алкоголичка или наркоманка)
893  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank Digital Currencies: a Threat or a Blessing? on: July 23, 2020, 09:20:48 PM
The threat from Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are not that it would be faster and cheaper than Bitcoin, but rather that it would get the full support of the governments. We currently have some freedom to use Bitcoin as a Commodity in many countries, because the governments allow it and commodities are regulated. What happens if the Banks collude with governments to ban Bitcoin and to support their fiat based token

If they could, they would have done so long ago

Besides, I've heard it a few times that CBDCs would not so much hurt Bitcoin and its brethren but regular banks and financial institutions. The tech that exists today can potentially make many banking jobs redundant. Starting from this reasoning, it can be concluded that bankers should collude or lobby against CBDCs, not cryptocurrencies. Crypto is still a tiny speck in the global financial space, not worth the effort of obliterating it
894  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Pun & Fun Thread on: July 23, 2020, 08:42:53 PM


When I was a child, I had trouble memorizing multiplication tables. Times were difficult
895  Local / Новички / Re: За вами уже выехали. on: July 23, 2020, 07:04:59 PM
Другой пример - жена. Если не брать в расчёт посиделки "под шафе" с подругами то ещё действо и "договорняк" с левым Васей, то первое, что приходит на ум - бракоразводные войны. Кто не понял - статистика в помощь... Любой более менее толковый юрист в этой теме скажет, что женщина, к разводу, готовится сильно заранее и незаметно

Подтверждаю слова данного постера

У меня подруга (зачеркнуто) соседка постоянно строит коварные бракоразводные планы, даже пару раз заявление в суд подавала (правда, потом забирала). Я даже больше скажу, женщина не только к разводу готовится заранее и незаметно, но и к замужеству, и даже к знакомству. Как говорится, Петя еще только сказал привет, а Маша уже вышла замуж и родила троих детей
896  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank Digital Currencies: a Threat or a Blessing? on: July 23, 2020, 06:36:53 PM
Central Bank currencies are nothing but a hilarious joke for cryptocurrencies, they are not cryptocurrencies!! With a non volatile nature and something backing them up , they might as well be fiat2.0

Things I can think of:

Pros:
-The government will be able to track the users
-Good option for traditional people who do not trust the cryptocurrencies and such
-Secure and hassle free transactions
-can stop Corruption
-won't charge excessive fee for transferring

I can't actually picture how the government being able to track their citizens is a pro (unless as in professional)

Maybe, it is a good thing for the government but definitely not for the simple folks. I don't think they will be happy about the Big Brother looking over their shoulder into every shekel they spend and every nickel they earn

Cons:
-Zero Privacy
-Same as fiat , only online
-Kills the whole concept of cryptocurrencies
-Would try and dominate the market by banning cryptocurrencies first
-Would be very volatile and stable which won't be good for short term trading much

I don't see either how CBDCs are killing the idea of cryptocurrencies. As explained in the article and further in the thread, CBDCs are not a new form money, it is the same good, or not so good, fiat but in a different package. And if fiat didn't kill crypto, there is no reason to think that CBDCs will. It could be argued that they can somewhat hurt cryptocurrencies but not in the sense of killing their entire concept. They don't offer anything fundamentally new
897  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - $500 Daily Race! 30% Rakeback! DICE with the best autobet mode on: July 23, 2020, 05:14:12 PM
So at the end of the day, sure if you abuse a+b+c+d places all together, that means small amount for a lot of work in place C wouldn't really be a problem, but when we are talking 500 more accounts, why not put it in the place that gives more? Windice 500 times plus 500 wolf.bet is better than windice 500 times, but worse than windice 1000 times

That was probably meant as a reply to my post

The problem with your reasoning is that you, the abuser, would go for as much as technically possible in every possible place out there. So if you can squeeze 1000 from WinDice, you would go for that. If you can squeeze 1000 from WinDice and extra 500 from Wolf.bet, you would try to do that. And while we are at it, it is not a job for you but your bot. It doesn't really care how many times it has to ask for free coins and in how many places unless there is a 2FA in place, of course, and you can't teach the bot to get around it or through it somehow
898  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank Digital Currencies: a Threat or a Blessing? on: July 23, 2020, 11:23:31 AM
But you're right, that infinite supply is a problem, but that's also not necessarily fixed by blockchain anyway... you can still hardcode finite supply without blockchain, or, as Bretton Woods did, ensure that you only create new supply when you could back it up

But there's a crucial difference, one of a kind

You can't change the supply of a cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin other than by consensus. But even in that case, it would seriously undermine its value proposition. Put simply, Bitcoin will no longer be Bitcoin. On the other hand, Nixon ended the dollar convertibility to gold single-handedly, and it didn't kill the dollar. In a nutshell, just declaring that some CBDC will be hard-capped won't suffice unless there is a working mechanism in place to enforce and ensure this cap, the one which can't be removed on arbitrary pretext

Tether's a crypto that can and has changed its supply if/when it wants to. Buterin's also proposed a max supply at some point, and I'm not sure Ethereum's really been too concerned about consensus (that's how Ethereum happened right? Classic argued as you did, that it would undermine value proposition but weholders all went and proved them wrong). So yeah, if a CBDC has crypto or not, it can determine supply (fixed or not), and it can change it if it wants

See? You just voiced what I had in mind

Even if the supply model of a blockchain-based project like Ethereum can be changed, what about a centralized currency run by a single entity, that is to say, a central bank? So no matter what kind of Bretton Woods they suggest or come up with again, without something that would actually stop them in their pursuit to work around the hard cap or peg they set forth in an agreement, this agreement won't be worth the paper it's written on
899  Economy / Gambling / Re: WOLF.BET - $500 Daily Race! 30% Rakeback! DICE with the best autobet mode on: July 22, 2020, 09:38:50 PM
I would say it is not even about if they could do it or not but when the return is so small and so difficult, why wouldn't they pick some places that is quicker?

The returns are not small

Anyway, if people still claim the faucet every day with their only account, with 500 accounts you can claim x500 that much. It is between 3 and 9 doges daily which makes it 6 doges daily on average, and with 500 accounts you would be able to bag 3k doges every day. I'm not sure if it is a small amount at all considering that 3k doges is around 10 dollars, or 300 dollars a month these days. It kinda makes sense if you live in some really backward place

I feel like windice for example just straight up gives money on faucet and can claim between few hours and that is quite easier, why would people pick here to scam when windice is easier to scam? So, at the end I am not even sure if it is about "being able to" but it is I more about "does it worth it" because even for a hacker it doesn't look like it worths it

With WinDice and Wolf.bet you will be able to bag more than with WinDice alone. Simple math
900  Other / Off-topic / Re: The Pun & Fun Thread on: July 22, 2020, 08:20:38 PM


People learn from history... Which is why you should always delete it
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