You had me nodding all the way WastedLTC, until you mentioned the basket of digital assets bullshit.  We should be trying to stay focused on bitcoin here rather than entertaining shitcoin talking points... ..

O.k. Maybe I am overreacting a bit, but fuck the shitcoins and the " basket of digital assets" bullshit.. that's a distraction to what bitcoin is actually offering.... sound money... helrow??

Seems like you are making a tall order upon ur lil selfie (and ur wife) hairybairy.

You should be able to figure out your joint maintenance (and perhaps improvement) of lifestyle considerations and then put a number upon that to even figure out inflation that is likely to occur.  Sure you can also build in a cushion to attempt to account for various extreme scenarios.. and still the number should not necessarily be "out of reach" especially considering how bitcoin has historically performed, the fact that you seem to know quite well about bitcoin and that bitcoin is likely to continue to be a decently great performing asset class (that you happen to know about before more than 90% of the rest of the world)...

Surely, I do not know your specific situation.. but I do know that in normie circles, there are a decent number (likely the vast majority since we have fiat money practices that dilute any kind of savings that people might make) of people who work 30-50 years and they still do not reach any kind of financial security status that we have been frequently referring to as "fuck you" status....   So, sure, bitcoin might not get you to fuck you status in 10 years or less, but surely it seems to facilitate a situation in which fuck you status can actually be reached by normie peeps who have both identified BTC as an investment and have taken reasonable and prudent practices, and sure an even better situation would be to reduce the number of years (the 30-50 years that I mentioned) to be able to actually reach fuck you status in half the time or even less.. that would be a second bonus of both knowing about bitcoin and taking prudent investment steps (which, based on some of your thread comments, you seem to have done).

Even if BTC prices end up at the same place they were a week or two earlier, or a few days earlier or even a month or two later, does not mean that bitcoin is going sideways during times like these.

TLDR (just for uie, hueristic): Bitcoin no does not do sideways very well, especially during times like these.



Are you and proudhon the same peeps?

You fucktwat, proudhon.

This must be said.

#nohomo


Those better be gay cats, homer.  Otherwise you are off-topic.  

They look, kind of, gay.

Hahahahahaha

I appreciate that you are attempting to front run (or should that be referred to as pre-emptively striking me?) me, Biodom.

Personally, I believe that if you use my formula of the 208 week moving average, then you do not necessarily consider how many years salary of principle that you have because the withdrawal rate of 4% (that I personally UPped to 10-12%) generates an income from that principle that has been built up with the passage of time.

So the considerations would not be the number of years, but instead the ability of the "passive" income from the principle to be enough income to sustain your life style and of course you need to account for inflation and matters like that..... but at some point in the future (not necessarily part of the initial calculations), you would also have the option to start depleting the principle,. but I, personally, consider the depletion of the principle idea to be a kind of afterthought consideration that might only come if you are able to kind of see that your death (or a great need for the principle like a life-ending health condition if it is not treated) is imminent (like within 5 years or something)- but part of the problem of trying to figure out when death might be nigh, is that prediction might be wrong and maybe even the BIGGER problem (elephant in the room) would be that death or an extreme deterioration in health would come without really having had been able to anticipate it and therefore the ability to spend all of the accumulated wealth would NOT necessarily be possible (or enjoyable) and then some undeserving snot-nosed relatives end up getting the wealth (which may still be acceptable to some people - if they have not planned to give their remaining wealth to a third-party - such as a charity).

I am largely responding to the ideas that you presented, 600W.. not really intended to suggest that you would be fucking around with gambling (well don't put it past any of us to have relapses from time to time)... but anyhow, its more of a public, rather than a personal response, even though I quoted you and even named you as if I was suggesting some of the accusations against you... hahahahahaha.. .#nohomo_was_intended

Note: Observing new ATH of $23,950 $24,217 as I type.. soon to be demolished I would presume.

Yeah... what the fuck?

I am not sure if I should be citing trolls, but some of you fucktwats seem to be totally delusional. 

We get a bit of a correction from $23,777, and the BTC price does not even reach $22k in the correction, and you are celebrating some kind of smartness in trading these kinds of dynamics?  Does not seem very trader friendly - and you gotta be really lucky to eek out a bit of profits by selling and expecting to buy cheaper or even worse playing with margins in these kinds of BTC price conditions (which largely feel as if they are in a kind of punish the bitcoin naysayers kind of phase). 


This too.


Probably you need to grow the fuck up, GbitG.  Read a few more posts, and try to contribute to the thread with a bit more humility until you get to know the place.  Few of us would expect you to know everything from the start, but starting out as an arrogant newbie and even begging for merits does not seem a great approach towards winning over WO peeps to want to give some credence to your posts.

I would not assign too much weight to the folks who are ridiculing John McAfee.

He definitely deserves to be ridiculed rather than worshiped, as some people do seem to worship him, or at least think that he can cause a pump - which is part of the reason that he is currently locked up for engaging in outrageous pumping (and presumably dumping).

In regards to the $500k prediction by the end of 2020.. about a week after he made that overlyexuberant prediction, he upped it to $1million.

Many longer term HODLers likely did not really disagree with his prediction... instead it was seeming to be a bit too much, too fast.

With any prediction we have to look at both time and substantive amount... So, at the time when he made his prediction, during the late 2017 bullrun, such time and amount were seeming more reasonable - but then once we got the 85% correction and then a kind of dragging out of our regrouping period for 3 years, it appears that McAfee may have been a year too early in his prediction or even a cycle or two, too early in his prediction.  He was not exactly being original in making such a prediction, only carrying out such prediction in his bombastic attention-whore seeking kind of way.

I took this quote from another thread, but I though that it was an interesting point for you, 600W to have such high confidence levels regarding UPpity.

I am probably too conservative, and as you may recall, I tend to stay around 50/50 in my various short term assertions, but at the same time, I will concede that I am becoming a wee bit inclined towards something approaching 60% for $30k in 3 months - which you had assigned a 90% value... and that is quite bullish for me.

Personally, I have a hard time justifying higher than 60%.. so maybe I can kind of relate to something like 70%, but 90%... Whoaza!!!!!!!!  Hopefully, no one is leveraging or engaging in too risky of behaviors based on having such high confidence levels that could end up causing a world of hurt in terms of actually acting upon such high confidence levels that are really difficult to real world justify (even if such scenario may well end up playing out and even if such scenario is the most probable of all scenarios, thus the assignment of something like 60% to such a scenario. which is still maybe too high, when you really consider all of the possible scenarios that could play out in 3 months - a long time in bitcoinlandia).

By the way, As I type, the BTC price is toying around with the reaching of ATHs, again while observing $23,680 within about the past 15 minutes of this post.   I am thinking that the failure/refusal to correct significantly in the past 2 days after reaching $23,777,  which has meant a bouncing around (some say coiling) in this upper end of the range, seems to cause reasonable expectations that this run may well have legs to bring us into a kind of $26k-ish region... which would surely be out of noman's zone.. but still within a kind "greater than expected" kind of overshooting - but yeah, overshooting to $30k or even $40k could be in the cards too, which might ONLY be a smaller level chance before getting some kind of correction that might help to allow buying support to catch up and keep up.  I am starting to ramble.. so I am going to stop.... for now... 

Of course, he is alive.

He is posting on a daily basis (nearly).  He is just NOT so bold to post in this thread, but he has made some nonsense posts in other parts of the forum - kind of showing that there can be ways that guys sell near the bottom and still are able to figure out some kind of way to accept their decision.  I am pretty sure that he has at least 1 bitcoin.. but I am not 100% positive because it is NOT like I want to read his post - especially since we have likely grown quite separate in the past 9 or 10 months... I am not going to say that we grew separate because of me... NOT going to say that.  



That is way the fuck NOT true OOM.  We are not even close to late 2017 levels of bitcoin rise.   We may be somewhere in the territory of early 2017 or even May and June 2017 kinds of rises...  Perhaps?

You should know better than that OOM, especially for being active in this thread for a couple of years... (even though your date of registration shows less than 1 year).

Fuck the daily candles.. who gives any shits about them?   I guess they are better than the hourly...

But anyhoo... look at the weekly candles.

Starting early October, we got 7 weekly greenies in a row, and then the next candle after that was barely red.. then another green and then another barely red one before getting to our current candle, which is a BIG ASS spike up starting from $19,152.  This continues to be a pretty BIG candle relatively speaking - and even in terms of percentages and zooming out, too.  So personally, I don't really know what to think but the candle does cover a lot of no man's land.. so it might just be an ongoing symbol of our passage through noman's land, even though there are no real guarantees that noman's land will become support at any time soon... or that we might not pass back below it.. even if it is going to continue to have to be noman's land until some other facts come about to prove it to be something else.. so far not.

By the way, for the past two days, we have been gravitating (consolidating) (perhaps coiling?) towards the top of the weekly candle.. whatever that means?


Something to look forward to on Sunday.  Are we entertained, yet?  Thanks in advance, friends1980 for committing** to entertaining us with a haiku of your spoiling the moo punnening.

**I will note that you, friends1980, are not exactly the best at following through with your oral commitments - eg reading the whole WO thread and reporting back to us.. that did not seem to happen or is NOT seeming to be happening.


It's just that sometimes our schedules just do not align... so surely, I cannot always keep up with you crazy-asses when you are posting like mad men (and girl).  I have been shown know actual and real way to clone my lil selfie (so far).

I am thinking that we are going to be seeing postings within the top 100 for a decent amount of time into the future... and sure we may well bounce out of the top 100 for a while too, at some point...    8 more days above $13k, and we will knock all of the values that are within the $12ks out.   We need 30 days above $14k to knock all of the $13ks out.

He not only took a loss, but he publicly proclaimed (at least implied) how smart he was for getting out.  Sucks to be him... failing/refusing to understand foundational concepts of bitcoin, including the currently relevant BTC price prediction models that just happened to show bitcoin on the cusp of a pumpening (which is exactly what ended up happening).  Who woulda thunk?


Oh?  I guess Wekkel already largely said what I meant to say.

In the USD/BTC column, there is nearly a $2,400 gap between 2nd and 3rd place.

I am NOT suggesting that such gap has to be filled in order to have higher numbers pushing those whimpy $20ks and $21ks down the chart... but it remains a pretty interesting phenomenon to see.

Down is not a necessary condition in order for more up to happen, so hopefully you, Shasha80, and any other predictors of down before up are actually prepared for up in case down does not happen first.

You may well thank me later.

 

In other words, the whole metric is pretty stupid.. because there are a lot of ways to make other coins appear to be equal to bitcoin or to have some kind of importance, when they hardly do have any importance except for being experimentation avenues and perhaps places for dumb money to get fucked over because they do not understand what differentiates bitcoin from the various shitcoins.

Because your are likely seeing what you want to see from a likely perspective of a bitcoin denier..  or perhaps a shitcoin bagholder or perhaps a no coiner, or perhaps a fence-sitter (precoiner - better perspective).  

One or more of those are the more likely of explanations for why you came up with such nonsense superficial assessment, and seemingly not even trying to understand anything beyond some kind of superficial idea that you likely made up in your vacuous noggen.  

You sound as if you do not believe in long term HODLing.. and sure there are a lot of short term thinkers, but they might end up getting screwed if they try to pull out value too soon and are not able to get back in.. but anyhow this thread is supposed to be more about "what is" rather than "what might be."

Surely, I would not consider cashing out small amounts of BTC (or maybe even large amounts -relatively speaking) along the way to be bad judgement, necessarily.  A lot of the considerations of whether a BTC HODLer is being prudent or practical will depend on a lot of individual factors including when s/he got into bitcoin and whether or not s/he feels that s/he is over-allocated in bitcoin. 

I find it a wee bit ironic that there are long term bitcoiners who are supposedly still stacking sats rather than either just waiting it out or cashing out small amounts on the way UPpity.. but hey, to each their own in terms of how to manage their monies.

Maybe an example might do, here?

Let's say for example someone got into bitcoin several years ago - like somewhere in the time-frame of 2013 to early 2017, so in essence his/her cost basis is in the three digit realm - and maybe even in the sub $500-ish realm for some HODLers of that era...

Anyhow such hypothetical person(s) accumulated BTC in the neighborhood of 10% of his/her total investment portfolio in BTC, and it was not as if the remaining 90% was any kind of small investment, it was a sufficiently large amount of an investment to sustain such person in the event that BTC were to go to zero... which surely has not happened, yet but seems to have been a BIGGER possible risk that should have been part of the considerations regarding allocations in that 2013 to early 2017 time-frame.

As we largely can appreciate is that what happened in late 2017 is that BTC prices appreciated more than 20x (considering a 3 digit cost basis for this hypothetical person(s)), so if such person had not cashed out very many of his/her coins during such 20x price increase, that 10%-ish allocation would have gone into the 90%-ish area of that persons allocation of total value in his/her investment portfolio....

So yeah, sure it corrected back down 85%-ish but still is largely 3x-4x up from the cost basis, so it ends up being perhaps less than 50% of the allocation in late 2018 and even may have sunk to such petri values (of less than 50%-ish) during the March 2020 crashening of BTC prices...

However, now after all of this UP and down and even the going through the 2018 to 2020 correction period, the BTC price is largely back to late 2017 levels (and beyond), so assuming that such hypothetical person did not sell any meaningful amounts of his/her BTC between late 2017 and now, then such BTC allocation has returned to supra 90% allocation levels in his/her total portfolio...

So in that regard, I don't really understand why it is not o.k. or prudent for such person to shave off some BTC at any point.. I mean what is the point of NOT having any value invested in anything else except BTC when the 90% that such person already has has made him/her richie as fuck (relatively speaking when looking at his/her prior allocations of wealth (investments) that continues to just stagnate in comparison to the BTC component of the investment portfolio)? 

In other words, I don't even see any kind of meaningful reason to keep buying BTC or completely HODLing onto every single BTC under such circumstances.. except maybe just symbolically wanting to support the cause or buying some BTC on dips..   but really, what's the point?  How many BTC is enough? 

The reality of the matter is that if the BTC price keeps going up to $50k, $100k and beyond $100k as you suggest WastedLTC.. then that BTC value has already become a great amount of value of such hypothetical person that just becomes more (and maybe even too much) of the portfolio value of the BTC HODLer.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.   

It seems that the gaps will need to be filled in at some point, but at the same time, filling in the gaps would not be a condition precedent, so for sure we know that as BTC's price goes UP, it is way less of a percentage move for it to just skip $1k increments, just like it started to skip $100 increments as the price got into the 4 digits.  Probably at some point, maybe a few years into the future, we might be skipping increments up to $10k  (if things go "well" for us HODLers)