Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

Kraken is ruled by bears. It doesn't accept offers higher than 19525 euro. Two times it broke each time the price of other exchanges passed that point. When the price went below that it started working again. The price went up and it stopped. The price fell and then it worked again. Let's see the third time is a charm. What a joke of an exchange. Like in 2017 their only 286 server is toasted again. Not that the coinbase server is better - 386 at best. I suggest that we gather donations for these poor owners to buy at least a pentium.  

[True Myth]

Observing new ATH with relatively low volume.

Also, observing not many large sell walls before $25k

Also... running out of champagne.
#2020BitcoinProblems

*Edit Also, observing JJG in full keyboard warrior mode.

[JayJuanGee]

that said...if you work for a paycheck and your current work is not necessarily a dream job, when to retire?
options:
1. your btc is worth 10 year salary
2. your btc is worth 30 year salary
3. your btc is worth 100 year salary
4. (just for JJG) your btc is worth X year salary, but you consider btc price at a 200wk average, where X is 20-30 years.

I think the often quoted number is close to or above 25. So your BTC is worth 25 years of your salary.

The more accurate number is actually 25 times your annual expenses. If you spend all of your salary, then it is your salary. If you spend less and save, this number can be lower. If you have debts, then you have to get rid of those first or include it in your calculations.

30 is a good fudge number to round up to. If you have that, you can retire.

Edit: This assumes your retirement money is invested in traditional markets and you are withdrawing a maximum of 4% annually.

For me, it is more money than my wife and I can earn in our remaining working lives.  In our relationship I couldn’t possibly retire without her retiring as well.  

And then I would want that fiat amount to be half or less of my current stack of Bitcoin.

So in all, this is quite a tall order.  

Seems like you are making a tall order upon ur lil selfie (and ur wife) hairybairy.

You should be able to figure out your joint maintenance (and perhaps improvement) of lifestyle considerations and then put a number upon that to even figure out inflation that is likely to occur.  Sure you can also build in a cushion to attempt to account for various extreme scenarios.. and still the number should not necessarily be "out of reach" especially considering how bitcoin has historically performed, the fact that you seem to know quite well about bitcoin and that bitcoin is likely to continue to be a decently great performing asset class (that you happen to know about before more than 90% of the rest of the world)...

Surely, I do not know your specific situation.. but I do know that in normie circles, there are a decent number (likely the vast majority since we have fiat money practices that dilute any kind of savings that people might make) of people who work 30-50 years and they still do not reach any kind of financial security status that we have been frequently referring to as "fuck you" status....   So, sure, bitcoin might not get you to fuck you status in 10 years or less, but surely it seems to facilitate a situation in which fuck you status can actually be reached by normie peeps who have both identified BTC as an investment and have taken reasonable and prudent practices, and sure an even better situation would be to reduce the number of years (the 30-50 years that I mentioned) to be able to actually reach fuck you status in half the time or even less.. that would be a second bonus of both knowing about bitcoin and taking prudent investment steps (which, based on some of your thread comments, you seem to have done).

[hossamdz]

Most people say 2020 was shit..  I beg to differ

So far bitcoin is the best thing that happened in 2020 , im sure everyone here agree !

[Biodom]

A lovely good morning Bitcoinland.

Another day another ATH... currently $24080USD/$30795CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Go Bitcoin go.
___

Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices.



Thank you Bitcoin.

Do it!
Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future).

Most people say 2020 was shit..  I beg to differ

So far bitcoin is the best thing that happened in 2020 , im sure everyone here agree !

it certainly is the best, but i would have taken bitcoin at 18K, heck even 14K at the end of 2020 WITHOUT all the other shite.
Right now, cannot even go anywhere-checked my antibodies-negative at the moment, RNA-based vaccines give me jeepers-creepers, protein-based vaccines are behind, unless you fly to central EU to get it and even then, it is a russian vaccine with no history yet.

[JayJuanGee]

I guess this feels similar to when we busted our 1k ATH...    Feels nothing like when we hit 20k last time.    ........
#HODL' good times!

....

I agree with you -- For the most part I was referring to the current sentiment.   I feel like this 20k is closer to when we broke 1k ATH and we have much more room to grow.   Let's say we remove the need to sell for living expenses and the original goal was to one day exchange corn to fiat.   I feel that as BTC continues to grow, people's urge to swap to fiat will drop.    

Years ago or just asking a nocoiner what they think they need to retire, the typical answer is in fiat terms.   I see this changing over time as BTC grows.   Still far from that at the moment but that is the direction I see things moving.   I assume it won't be in BTC terms either...   maybe a basket of digital assets that return a predictable rate.  

tdlr;   hodl.

You had me nodding all the way WastedLTC, until you mentioned the basket of digital assets bullshit.  We should be trying to stay focused on bitcoin here rather than entertaining shitcoin talking points... ..

O.k. Maybe I am overreacting a bit, but fuck the shitcoins and the " basket of digital assets" bullshit.. that's a distraction to what bitcoin is actually offering.... sound money... helrow??

[cAPSLOCK]

Now you have to be very careful in a very strange way many friends and many girls will suddenly appear around you

I have a house full of girls.  Don't need any more.  

[Biro Bob]

one day the dumpers will have no btc left to dump. one day the just stop burning their cash because they burned it all on completely useless stupid forgotten dumps for ants. 

There will always be dumpers!

[Biodom]

I guess this feels similar to when we busted our 1k ATH...    Feels nothing like when we hit 20k last time.    ........
#HODL' good times!

....

I agree with you -- For the most part I was referring to the current sentiment.   I feel like this 20k is closer to when we broke 1k ATH and we have much more room to grow.   Let's say we remove the need to sell for living expenses and the original goal was to one day exchange corn to fiat.   I feel that as BTC continues to grow, people's urge to swap to fiat will drop.    

Years ago or just asking a nocoiner what they think they need to retire, the typical answer is in fiat terms.   I see this changing over time as BTC grows.   Still far from that at the moment but that is the direction I see things moving.   I assume it won't be in BTC terms either...   maybe a basket of digital assets that return a predictable rate.  

tdlr;   hodl.

You had me nodding all the way WastedLTC, until you mentioned the basket of digital assets bullshit.  We should be trying to stay focused on bitcoin here rather than entertaining shitcoin talking points... ..

O.k. Maybe I am overreacting a bit, but fuck the shitcoins and the " basket of digital assets" bullshit.. that's a distraction to what bitcoin is actually offering.... sound money... helrow??

you are simplifying it too much. You are selling btc for cash, he might be selling for USDC or USDT, then getting 10-11% in interest. USDC is certainly a digital asset. Not sure why would someone call USDC a shitcoin, although it might be proven to be just that in eventuality. How much yield do you get on USD? A minuscule amount, no doubt.

[HI-TEC99]

i could not see any gay xmas cards today, but hey... here we go again 

Perhaps stingy xmas cards work too.

We have got a pump going. 23383.

It must be the stingy Christmas cards. I'll try another one.

[True Myth]

There are an awful lot of consecutive green daily candles lately. Total of 8 to be precise.

Last time we had 8 in a row was back in June 2019.

[JayJuanGee]

I guess this feels similar to when we busted our 1k ATH...    Feels nothing like when we hit 20k last time.     I remember looking at 1k and thinking,  OK finally we can just put that behind us and really didn't think much about it again until we hit 3k and went through some serious 1k chops.      I think we will be feeling the pressure around 50k with 10k chops and it will be tough to not unload some.          At 100k,  I'll be in awe and feel like we did it..      Once we pass that,  I don't see why you would cash out at all,  BTC will be the store of value and you would then just borrow against it or loan and live off interest from it...    

#HODL' good times!

Surely, I would not consider cashing out small amounts of BTC (or maybe even large amounts -relatively speaking) along the way to be bad judgement, necessarily.  A lot of the considerations of whether a BTC HODLer is being prudent or practical will depend on a lot of individual factors including when s/he got into bitcoin and whether or not s/he feels that s/he is over-allocated in bitcoin.  

I find it a wee bit ironic that there are long term bitcoiners who are supposedly still stacking sats rather than either just waiting it out or cashing out small amounts on the way UPpity.. but hey, to each their own in terms of how to manage their monies.

Maybe an example might do, here?

Let's say for example someone got into bitcoin several years ago - like somewhere in the time-frame of 2013 to early 2017, so in essence his/her cost basis is in the three digit realm - and maybe even in the sub $500-ish realm for some HODLers of that era...

Anyhow such hypothetical person(s) accumulated BTC in the neighborhood of 10% of his/her total investment portfolio in BTC, and it was not as if the remaining 90% was any kind of small investment, it was a sufficiently large amount of an investment to sustain such person in the event that BTC were to go to zero... which surely has not happened, yet but seems to have been a BIGGER possible risk that should have been part of the considerations regarding allocations in that 2013 to early 2017 time-frame.

As we largely can appreciate is that what happened in late 2017 is that BTC prices appreciated more than 20x (considering a 3 digit cost basis for this hypothetical person(s)), so if such person had not cashed out very many of his/her coins during such 20x price increase, that 10%-ish allocation would have gone into the 90%-ish area of that persons allocation of total value in his/her investment portfolio....

So yeah, sure it corrected back down 85%-ish but still is largely 3x-4x up from the cost basis, so it ends up being perhaps less than 50% of the allocation in late 2018 and even may have sunk to such petri values (of less than 50%-ish) during the March 2020 crashening of BTC prices...

However, now after all of this UP and down and even the going through the 2018 to 2020 correction period, the BTC price is largely back to late 2017 levels (and beyond), so assuming that such hypothetical person did not sell any meaningful amounts of his/her BTC between late 2017 and now, then such BTC allocation has returned to supra 90% allocation levels in his/her total portfolio...

So in that regard, I don't really understand why it is not o.k. or prudent for such person to shave off some BTC at any point.. I mean what is the point of NOT having any value invested in anything else except BTC when the 90% that such person already has has made him/her richie as fuck (relatively speaking when looking at his/her prior allocations of wealth (investments) that continues to just stagnate in comparison to the BTC component of the investment portfolio)?  

In other words, I don't even see any kind of meaningful reason to keep buying BTC or completely HODLing onto every single BTC under such circumstances.. except maybe just symbolically wanting to support the cause or buying some BTC on dips..   but really, what's the point?  How many BTC is enough?  

The reality of the matter is that if the BTC price keeps going up to $50k, $100k and beyond $100k as you suggest WastedLTC.. then that BTC value has already become a great amount of value of such hypothetical person that just becomes more (and maybe even too much) of the portfolio value of the BTC HODLer.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.  

But what if a hodlr simply believes in BTC JJG?

What if.. I believe in the future of BTC, and it’s ability to withstand future events, more than any fiat currency of any country, any government, or any companies in anY of these countries?

And, on top of that, maybe I don’t trust any government not to steal any of my assets within the reach of their grubbby fingers?
What else can I invest in that a government can’t just snatch from me at any moment they desire? And would easily be able to skip town on any such oppressive country/government without leaving my assets behind?

Well, you can do what you like, eddie13, but it still seems to me that each of us should be attempting to find some kind of balance - and if you are putting all of your eggs into bitcoin without attempting to balance BTC and fiat, then it seems that you are engaging in gambling rather than prudently attempting to tailor your own specific situation to the world around you and in order to attempt to be in one of the best positions that you can put yourself into in terms of having some balance in the real world.

Largely, I was attempting to describe a hypothetical person who already has a very large allocation in BTC in the above 90% arena (and who is already rich as fuck from his/her investment into BTC and overall with all of his assets including the up to 10% that is in other kinds of assets), so in some sense, there does not seem to be a lot of potential pay off to allocate more into BTC when already a lot is allocated there.

I think that it could be a bit difficult to speculate too much on specifics of these situations and these feelings without already kind of being in such a situation, and of course, frequently guys/gals are going to come to differing balances regarding whether they conclude that they are sufficiently balanced.  

Remember one aspect of my 90/10 scenario is that the 10% is already a quantity of wealth that allows the person to sustain themselves at their current lifestyle in perpetuity... so the 90% that is in bitcoin and continuing to appreciate in value (at least so far) just becomes extravagance (or a possible lifestyle upgrade) in some sense.

...
What else can I invest in that a government can’t just snatch from me at any moment they desire? .....

The power to think rationally.
Trust in real science...etc.
I know that's intangible and not monetary, but the government cannot steal it anyway.

Well, yeah... there is even a balancing that is needed in this.

Some guys seem to get so fucking obsessed over taxes and some of that bullshit that they fail/refuse to appreciate that they can live rich as fuck, and still pay taxes... and sometimes being overly focused on how to avoid taxes might put them into a category that the govt believes that they are evading taxes, and then being in that situation does not seem to be worth it, in my humble bumble thinking.

[JimboToronto]

Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices.



Thank you Bitcoin.

Do it!
Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future).

Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house, although in the spring I could still drop a trailer on the land for weekend use.

The big problem is converting my coins into dollars and paying capital gains taxes. I don't have (nor want) a bank account. Luckily I have one paper wallet (my largest) which can be traced to my identity, containing about 30 coins. Hopefully that will cover it.

[Biodom]

Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices.



Thank you Bitcoin.

Do it!
Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future).

Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house, although in the spring I could still drop a trailer on the land for weekend use.

The big problem is converting my coins into dollars and paying capital gains taxes. I don't have (nor want) a bank account. Luckily I have one paper wallet (my largest) which can be traced to my identity, containing about 30 coins. Hopefully that will cover it.

Great...a race between the Canadian RE appreciation and btc.
My money is on btc, but we already know that  
That said, I am envious as canadian weather, especially in the summer, is closer to my liking than 100F in Houston.
Most likely I would go for WA or OR, though, as I can stay in Canada only for 6mo straight (although it is probably enough).
pine or spruce>palm (in my book)

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good evening WO!
Observing @ $23,890

[OutOfMemory]

Rofl, insane day !

But remember:

What goes up...

...might not stop.

HB, lightfoot!

EDIT: GOING AGAIN!
Really crazy. Even more than 2017 right before the dump.

That is way the fuck NOT true OOM.  We are not even close to late 2017 levels of bitcoin rise.   We may be somewhere in the territory of early 2017 or even May and June 2017 kinds of rises...  Perhaps?

You should know better than that OOM, especially for being active in this thread for a couple of years... (even though your date of registration shows less than 1 year).

Brrrr... please hold it, pal.
First, i did apologize a few posts later (exact memory is my main problem). You might have read it after you commented my answer to Wekkel Wexlike (EDITED: see? memory).
Second, i just looked up Bitstamp on cryptowatch. At the end of 2017 pump and we had $1k to $2k daily green candles, while in the last few days we had $1k to $1.5k (roughly) green daily candles. That's the kind of rise i was talking about, not the steepness of the parabola. I know the difference, i just didn't express it in a clear way.
But i remembered, or thought to remember, were around $1k daily rises at the end of 2017 before the bears took over. (EDIT: At the time of the original post) I know, in terms of parabola, we're nowhere near the end of 2017, but the $1k+ (EDIT: daily) rises reminded me a lot of that time.

EDIT: Sorry for editing this thing to near death.

Observing new ATH with relatively low volume.

Also, observing not many large sell walls before $25k

Also... running out of champagne.
#2020BitcoinProblems

*Edit Also, observing JJG in full keyboard warrior mode.

These sell walls are adjusted by bots faster than you can say "bot".

This isn't even close to JJG's full keyboard warrior mode 
#respect

[JayJuanGee]

.. so it seems to me that shaving off some lil corns along the way or just consuming goods and services here and there does not really seem like a bad thing.. including the considerations of consuming some other kinds of investments if anything strikes the fancy of the HODLER who happens to have way more than 90%+ in bitcoin, largely due to BTC price appreciation rather than being irresponsible in any kind of way related to how such BTC HODLer had acquired such BTC in the earlier years.  

Yes, but it is just strategic thinking 101.
For a more advanced course consider that rich rarely sell their assets and btc is precisely that-an asset.
When you sell an asset, you get hit with the cap gains tax (at least in US), I think that at least Germany and Portugal (maybe Denmark as well-not sure) don't have cap gains on btc sells. What do rich (like Musk) do? They borrow against the asset in $$.

Of course, there are a variety of tactics that any of us can deploy, and you seem to almost be arguing my point in terms of the passive income aspect of living off of the appreciation of value rather than the principle, and when you reach a large ass fucking amount of principle, you do not necessarily need to be comparing your strategies to the rich and famous, but instead figuring out what works for you in terms of being able to live comfortably.

Like I said several times already, there comes a point in which shaving off some BTC makes sense - especially when you already have a fuck ton of them.  Ask Bob.... or maybe you do not want to ask him... but sometimes there is some practicality in shaving off some value and just paying the taxes and enjoying the proceeds whether it is a simple ranch or a more elaborate ranch with a helipad and/or runway.

Let's say that instead of selling 20% of btc at 20K (for easier calc) you borrow 20% of the net current value at yearly 5% (realistic numbers).

You can do both.  You can sell some BTC and you can also employ those leveraging (not selling) tactics too.  I am not suggesting that other tactics cannot supplement the shaving off along the way approach..

So, essentially, you got cash equal to 20% of your stash without selling anything.
If btc goes down, you keep paying the loan from your fiat cash flow (it has to be significant and positive, of course).
If btc goes up, for example 100%(to 40k, quite realistic), you sell 10% to buy back your loan (note that you only need to sell 10%, not 20).
The end result-you have 90% of the original stash, was able to do something with 20% of the original value (invest, buy a house, etc), paid only less than half tax (comparing to the original tax) with less than half because you can possibly deduct something of the loan interest, not 100% sure about that.

I don't disagree with any of this... and in some sense you seem to be arguing against yourself because in one post you seem to be suggesting a strategy that depletes your principle, and in this second way of framing, you are suggesting a strategy that does not deplete your principle.  My strategy does not contradict any of this, and you seem to be getting in the weeds a bit in terms of presenting contradicting strategies (and sure I am not opposed to a basket of strategies that the person tailors to his/her situation), and I have not even suggested ONLY one approach, even though I tend to focus on ways to just use your BTC without overly complicating all of the supplemental ways that some of the BTC or assets might be put to work - without, hopefully, getting too distracted into various shitcoin products or shitcoin talking points that you gotta do this, that or another thing to put your btc to work when such complicated strategies might not be necessary in order still ensure that you are rich as fuck from the BTC stash that you have and are able to shave off simply.. and even pay uncle sam along the way and still be rich as fuck in perpetuity (or until death, whichever comes first).

Ok I’m calling the top for 2020 at $23,777.  

Let’s see how well this comment ages.  I am not trading this (hodl only) but just calling the top for fun.  YMMV.  

Our mileage did vary, hairybairy.  

 

You have another opportunity to call the 2020 top at $24,217, and if you keep calling it (as it is going up), sooner or later you are going to be correct.. as long as you stay online until midnight on 12/31.  

Ok I’m calling the top for 2020 at $23,777.  

Let’s see how well this comment ages.  I am not trading this (hodl only) but just calling the top for fun.  YMMV.  

Me = JJG

.....

Hairybeary.... 

Only shorter text

The dude said it first.  I must admit.

[JimboToronto]

At the end of 2017 pump and we had $1k to $2k daily green candles, while in the last few days we had $1k to $1.5k (roughly) green daily candles.

By the end of 2021 we should have $10k-$20k daily green candles.

[HI-TEC99]

Getting close to thinking of taking a little profit in the form of 100 acres of prime forested property with 1500 feet of lake frontage, ten minutes from a major hospital and about an hour and a half from downtown Toronto. Under 23 bitcoins at current prices.



Thank you Bitcoin.

Do it!
Peace and serenity now is more important than pie in the sky, especially when we are not there (in the future).

Now is actually months away. This is just the land. I'd still have to build a house,

Personally I wouldn't trust any builder that's not approaching retirement age. Brick layer training used to take 7 years. Now it's three months. I've seen too many people suffering from badly built new build houses to trust anyone young.

[600watt]

At the end of 2017 pump and we had $1k to $2k daily green candles, while in the last few days we had $1k to $1.5k (roughly) green daily candles.

By the end of 2021 we should have $10k-$20k daily green candles.

this.