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901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 09, 2013, 11:02:42 PM
Averaging $3M in gains daily over the past week. Bitcoin is officially my #1 investment.

Nice, you can afford your own congressmen now.

Only senators cost a million or two

Congressmen only go for a few grand, 10k max...
902  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Encrypted Paper Backups on: November 08, 2013, 01:35:18 AM
It just takes two seconds to encrypt your recovery key, there's no need for this in armory.  Just do it yourself if you want that.

Agreed, this is very easy to do.

The issue is it is error prone when done manually. For every 100 times I've done the above manually there is 1 time where something went wrong. If I have a cold wallet that I come back to in 2020 and BTC is priced to the moon, I don't want that to be the time my manual encryption effort screwed up somehow.

The advantage of automation is it eliminates manual mistakes.
903  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price down to 3.09 - How low will it go? on: November 07, 2013, 05:52:37 PM
The US cent is now down to under 3200 satoshis, and I think it might go under 3000 this week. A big question, when will we see tripple digits for the first time?

They are talking more and more about getting rid of the US penny because a cent is nothing now.

We are talking more and more about shifting to using pennies and micro pennies.

What does this tell you?
904  Economy / Speculation / Re: What price for btc will start to affect the value of the dollar? on: November 07, 2013, 05:41:06 PM
This is a great question, thanks for posting.

IMHO Bitcoin will start to impact the value of the dollar when it decreases the demand for dollars. Everything comes down to supply and demand. The Fed controls the dollar supply but they can not control demand for them.

Demand for dollars is lowered every time:
- Someone decides to purchase BTC instead of depositing that money in a bank
- A merchant makes a sales in BTC instead of dollars
- A non-US based entity decides to save in BTC instead of petrodollar
- An investor invests in BIT or something similar instead of a bond fund.
The list goes on and on.

You are right that the value has to come from somewhere, but I don't think BTC going up necessarily causes the value of dollars/fiat to go down. In theory both can have a high value.

I think the full process is more like: BTC goes up, which causes interest in BTC to expand, which in turn lowers demand for dollars, which is what lowers the dollar's value.

905  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-11-06 Yahoo Finance : Video commentary on current rally ($15m into BIT) on: November 07, 2013, 05:29:46 PM
For some reason I suspect the steady 1btc per 8 seconds buying bot might be connected to this. It might be how the trust maintains parity as investment comes in.

I can tell you with some confidence that the traders for Secondmarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust don't buy on the exchanges.  That isn't to say they don't impact the price on the exchanges.

I am very interested to know what other mechanisms exist to purchase bitcoins, the only ones I know of are:

- Exchanges
- Coinbase
- BTC ATMs
- In-person cash sales

In person cash sales & ATMs are not going to provide the $millions in volume needed and coinbase has daily limits and uses exchanges in the back end anyway.

So... Where else can BIT purchase?
906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price down to 3.8 - How low will it go? on: November 07, 2013, 05:20:03 PM
Price has dropped down to 3.09, it has gone down fast the past day! Anybody want to guess at a bottom before the price comes back up?

A discussion over on the Wall Observer BTC/USD thread is when to start to discuss BTC/USD prices in terms of mBTC.

So a similar question here is when to switch to using USD / µBTC.  Cheesy
907  Economy / Speculation / Re: $15,000,000 invested in BTC. These coins now are not for sale for many years on: November 07, 2013, 05:14:00 PM
34,700 under management as of Nov 5th. Started with 17,800

It's facinating that a Wall street investment effort only has 34K coins so far, it shows how much harder it is at each stage to acquire a significant number of coins. The more they buy, the higher the price goes which limits how much they can buy.

Imagine a new BIT being started in 2016, 10K coins by then might be out of reach even for wall street money. Coins will be too spread out and widely held.

What's also facinating is this amount of BTC is nothing to the original adoptors and strong hands. To those that got in in 2011 I'm sure 10K coins is no big deal.
908  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will Bitcoin hit $500? on: November 07, 2013, 05:05:53 PM

two weekstm means sometime maybe later next year, just ask Josh.

14 days means .... 14 days

These are very different metrics  Wink
909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling it: Peak of $1,600 by the end of the year on: November 07, 2013, 04:36:49 PM
$1600 would be surprising, but only mildly. The key thing here, in addition to China, is that the BIT took off. That was the x-factor: are people actually buying the BIT or is it just languishing? People are buying, bigtime ($15 million invested in 6 weeks so far). Now that it has a track record of big gains, more will pile in. This is going to be huge, as a severe coin shortage happens due to them all being vacuumed up by Second Market, and it will manifest as a sort of organic series of little panic buys as we have been seeing.

This is what I think most in the financial community still do not fully understand.

They are used to working with investment instruments like the GLD ETF, where if there is a temporary short of the underlying asset they just fractionalize it and create paper promises (example GLD holding little physical gold and mostly paper).

Bitcoin is not fractionalizable, this is a massive difference. Wall street of course will try to fractionalize it, but will get badly burned because there is  no central entity to bail out bad/risky decisions.
910  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Encrypted Paper Backups on: November 07, 2013, 02:39:55 AM
I just want to reiterate my position on this -- I have outlined in the past why I don't want to support directly-encrypted backups.  Not everyone agrees with the reasoning, but I'm sticking to it because the ability to recover your wallet is higher priority than having the extra physical security.

Instead, this is being addressed with the fragmented backups.  It is a perfect mix of redundancy and security, and can be used very similarly to an encrypted backup without the same risks.  Fragmented backups have already been merged into my development branch, and will be part of the next release along with the the RAM reduction.


This stance is the one thing keeping me from using (and recommending) Armory predominantly. I do understand your reasoning and position, but for my personal use-case, I want encrypted backups. I simply am not comfortable with paper wallets due to potential theft, loss, destruction. I very specifically *want* my coins to be unlockable by my brain only. And the last thing I want to worry about is keeping some slip (or M slips) of paper physically secure.

But obviously Armory has lots of great features, so that essentially leaves me to implement my own encrypted Armory backup process which will be MUCH more error-prone than if the feature existed natively in the client.

I really hope you change your mind.

Agreed,

The option already exists to make encrypted digital backups. So I don't really understand the logic behind not supporting the feature. Many users only create digital backups and brainwallet those, so they are already in the exact situation etotheipi says he want to avoid.

All that is being asked for is to provide the same functionality for paper backups as for digital backups.
911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin notice/alarm on: November 07, 2013, 02:13:41 AM
bitcoinium has alarms and it syncs pretty good, I haven't used the alarms in a while, but I'm sure they're even better than I remember.

(The alarms got annoying during the last spike and I turned them off and haven't turned them on since.)

I think there's a thread on here somewhere about bitcoinium. Buy the ad-free version and support the author because it's awesome.

Second vote for Bitcoinium.

I just started to use it a couple weeks ago and like just about everything about it.

Can't report on the alarm function though, I've tried to use it but my low alarm never gets hit since it keeps going up...
912  Economy / Speculation / Re: 20 articles on 'Bitcoin is broken', researchers warn' doesn;t move price? why? on: November 07, 2013, 12:54:51 AM
Researchers are claiming a fundamental flaw in bitcoin which leaves this 2 billion dollar currency vulnerable to take over, yet we're still going up,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-24818975

some one make sense to me?

As this doesn;t make sense?

SUrely panic selling should happen, unless theirs market manipulation

Simple, people who easily buy into such articles without understanding them and the same type of people who casually glance at bitcoin and say it is a scam. People who know bitcoin well are the ones who trade/purchase at these pricees and they easily see through the FUD.

What this means is the Bitcoin market is mostly comprised of people who have investigated the concept enough to understand it well and not be scared off random to FUD. It is a very healthy sign that the price did not even blink in response to 100 MSM FUD articles.

Also, as usual I found it most informative to skip the articles and go to the comment sections. Great explaintions there on what the issue was, what was discussed about it in 2010, and why that attack avenue does not matter. MSM journalists are a joke
913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silk Road on: November 06, 2013, 11:53:54 PM
Silk "Honeypot" Road

This, the FBI is going to be visiting the address of every single person who purchased from SR. Anyone who uses these sites is a fool.
914  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the bubble pop? on: November 06, 2013, 11:15:17 PM
what bubble?

the 100 dollar rise in bitcoin value in ten days - generally known as a bubble -

 looks at a two year chart or bitcoin and see the other two instances this occurred, and no this time isn;t different. THe price is irrational, however i do believe in longterm value appreciation for bitcoin


The only "bubbles" with bitcoin have been rapid > 10x price movements. The first in 2011 from 0.01 to ~30 and the second in 2013 from ~10 to 266.

Going from ~130ish to 266 is not a bubble by this metric.

We will be in bubble land if the price rapidly moves to >1,500. Until then this is a stable rise.
915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coinbase is higher than MtGox on: November 06, 2013, 10:32:48 PM
Yeah I noticed this. Is there any exchange with higher prices than Mt.Gox?

I think this is because Coinbase will "lend" you money during the transfer gap.

For example I can go to Coinbase and lock in a price immediately even though it takes several days for the USD to go through the system. Alternatively I can wire money to bitstamp or mtgox, wait a day or two and then accept whatever the price has moved to.

I made a Coinbase purchase a couple days ago and originially was annoyed by the ~2% premium over bitstamp, but in the end I received a better price than if I had wired money to bitstamp and puchased after the delay.

It's interesting to note that when the price was stable Coinbase better reflected bitstamp prices. IMHO I think Coinbase will tend be priced higher than exchanges during rising periods due to the ability to immediately execute prior to funds clearing.
916  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: DRILLBIT SYSTEM Miners - Thumbs 0.5 BTC (58 left), 8 Boards 1.6 BTC (16 left) on: November 06, 2013, 08:04:46 PM
When the masses start pouring in, this is going over 1000, no doubt about it.
...and difficulty is going to plateau at or around 2 billion, or so a line of popular wisdom goes...

The problem is, that sort of speculation is just that, speculation. There are no clear, solid facts to back up the assumptions people are making, but a lot of people are happy to grab onto them because they want them to be true.

I agree that BTC price is pure speculation as it depends so much on the demand side of the equation (supply is known) and we just can not predict how demand will evolve.

However difficulty I believe we can predict. My expectation is simply that ASIC demand and thus difficulty will plateau when mining revenue equals electricity costs, and this can be modeled with some accuracy.

If you make the following assumptions:
1) Efficient ASIC hashing is roughly 0.8W/Gh which seems to be most efficient point so far
2) BTC equals $200
3) Electricity costs $0.15/kW

With these assumptions, I calculated that difficulty should plateau around 50 billion. (please check)

You can adjust the final difficulty number by changing your assumptions. If ASIC efficiency doubles to 0.4W/Gh then difficulty doubles, if BTC rises to $400 then difficulty doubles, if electricity costs $0.075/kW then difficulty doubles.

In the end I think both ASIC efficiency and electricity costs will be stable assumptions, in that case then difficulty will rise and fall linearly with BTC price. (Of course that assumes miners will turn off ASIC which may not be the case)
917  Economy / Exchanges / Re: ***CEX.IO Cloud mining official page*** on: November 05, 2013, 08:27:13 PM
I agree with all the above. I have had a decent experience with cex.io so far, but my endgame will be if I can sell my GH/s at the same price as that at which I bought.

As long as you trade every 4-8 days...i think you can get in and out...with some BTC...and maybe even make a profit.  Difficulty change coming up soon and fees are kicking in on the 8th... watch out for both.

The higher datacenter fees are guarenteed to make CEX mining break even at some point. When this happens people will be trading an asset with zero future payments expected and thus zero value. This event is less than a year away.

Once people better realize this, the price will come down to better match the realistic life-time earning potential of a Gh, which is significantly below the current price.

Right now everyone's primary focus is trading, with the daily revenue as a nice side bonus. This is the greater fool theory and hoping that you are not the fool.
918  Economy / Speculation / Re: RIAA is now going after Bitcoin on: November 05, 2013, 08:05:22 PM
Quote:
"RIAA executive vice president Neil Turkewitz released a statement last week detailing web businesses that are either directly infringing copyright or "profit from facilitating such theft." Bitcoin, the trade group contends, falls into the latter category".

Well then if bitcoin is a "web business" profiting from copyright infringement, why don't they go and sue bitcoin?

They might... they might... Roll Eyes

Just wait till someone tells Neil Turkewitz that bitcoin is a peer-to-peer decentralized protocol. I bet his first question will be to ask how they can Subpoena a protocol...
919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why I think Bitcoin will be over $5000 a coin on: November 05, 2013, 06:52:50 PM
the only thing that I don't like about the idea of BTC going to 5000 is that the FBI and some other bad guys have big accounts now too.

Even if BTC goes to $5000 the FBI's holdings are still massively smaller than just one month of FED printing. Remember the FED prints $85B each and every month to hold the world together.

$5k per BTC is nothing.
920  Economy / Speculation / Re: US Dollar Value - 0.00389105 BTC on: November 05, 2013, 06:38:21 PM
When the dollar hits absolute zero, will the phrase "sell bitcoin" have any meaning?  If so, how?  Will bitcoin be priced in gold at that point?

Maybe gold will be priced in bitcoin?
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