Yes.

Your wish will come true..  "We" (royal that is) cannot guarantee "within a few hours," but it can be guaranteed as coming soon^tm.


I might be more bi-lingual than uie-pooie, since I know a longer expression in Spanish. 

It has five (or four) words.

s o c k s






Fuck uie pooie and ur lil doggie too, if you want fuck.. and also your dollars that you are proclaiming that you got for them, even though dollars are somewhat more related to the topic of this thread.. but the main hero of this thread is not dollars..


Guess who/what is the hero of this wee widdo thread?

Go on guess.




 


Well.  The last time that we were at $4k was right around the crashening of March 2020... .and then prior to that, we would have to go back to late 2018 and early 2019..  and the $4ks lasted for about 4 months in late 2018 and early 2019. 

I did a quickie look at the 2019 charts, and we did not hit $4k in late 2019 - absent the March 2020 dippening in which we were in the $4ks only lasted around 6 days and it was only part of those days and not really in the lower $4ks except on March 13, 2020.


Time flies when you are having fun.

The last 4 years have been pretty good, relatively speaking, especially for any of us who had been in bitcoin and/or mostly established our position prior to 4 years ago.

On the other hand, anyone who might have had established their position at the top of the 2017 market and did not buy more BTC, those guys might have had suffered a bit in 2022, but if they continued to buy the whole time since 2017, they would be sitting quite pretty right now.

Even if a person from 2017 ONLY invested $100 per week over the last 7 years, he would have had invested right around $36,600 and he would have had accumulated right around 4.4623 bitcoin (currently valued at $306k, so profits on paper currently nearly 8.5x in profits).  Who's going to be complaining about those kinds of numbers for the BTC accumulator/HODLer?

Sorry for your seemingly lack of insight.  You have been registered on the forum for 7 months, and you did not buy any bitcoin.

Just think if you would have put $100 per week into bitcoin since the time of your registration.  You would have had invested right around $3,600 and you would have accumulated 0.1584 BTC (currently valued at right around $10,816), so you would have had been in profits right around 2x.. You would have your original amount plus 2x more. also could be referred to having 3x more than the original amount.  There shouldn't be any complaint with that, and the main thing would be figuring out how to hold your coins so that you wouldn't feel vulnerable to losing them in one way or another.

It is agree that there is a bit of a learning curve, especially for anyone who might want to hold their own coin rather than keeping it with others..  and it will vary for each of us in regards to how much of our value that we might want to keep on an exchange versus transferring to our own custody and also maybe how to make sure that our UTXOs are manageable and reasonable sizes.  Yep.. a learning curve that not everyone ready, willing and able take the responsibilities of holding their own keys, even though holding your own keys can be quite empowering.


Those might be examples of people who had not figured out how to secure their coins and/or keeping their coins with questionable 3rd parties.. Yeah, there may well be some risks in terms of being able to get the profits, such as 3x in only 7 months... and surely at the same time, there is a tendency that the longer that people are in bitcoin, the greater their profits, but they still have to figure out how to balance the risks and to not lose their coins.


So you are more on the conservative side, and I consider myself also to be fairly conservative, but I found out about bitcoin a bit more than 10 years ago, and I also had been investing for 20 years prior to getting into bitcoin.. so there are ways to figure out your position size in order to account for the level of your desires to be conservative in your investment style.


You are not in a position to lecture any of us about what we should do or how we should do it, especially since you have not been doing it yourself.  You are so conservative, scared and maybe you have really good capital preservation practices, but it hardly does any good if you are talking to forum members who likely mostly have bitcoin, and you are lecturing us about what we should and/or should not do in order to exercise good and/or safe security practices in regards to our bitcoin, which you already stated that you don't have any..


No.  There is no way to get back coins if you lose your access, unless you happen to have parts of the private key (or seed) and there might be some ways to figure out the other parts.  So if you have part of the solution, then there could be ways to recover the seed, but if you totally lost everything or you don't have enough pieces, then you will be out of luck.

There could be some folks who might pass down their keys or leave instructions, but the instructions would need to be clear enough in order to figure out how to access the wallets, so there could be ways of figuring it out later with fewer pieces of the puzzle.. for example if someone might have had split up the key, there could be possibilities that if 1/2 is found or 1/3 or 2/3 is found then it could become more likely with the higher number of pieces.


The seed phrase is one of the most common methods of either backing up or saving a private key, but there are other ways that private keys are backed up, and I don't claim to be an expert on all the ways that private keys are backed up, so there are some aspects of bitcoin that change over time, while still being backward compatible, while at the same time some of the security practices are likely difficult and easy at the same time by design.. .. while at the same time, there are likely more and more user-friendliness in bitcoin, but sometimes there can be needs to learn more complicated things if you are changing your security practices, and there may well be safeguards that need to be taken, but some of them are not difficult under certain systems, such as the seed phrase system is not difficult, but it was not part of bitcoin when bitcoin was introduced, it came about later as a proposal in 2013 as a part of BIP39, and went live in 2014. So it is an example of bitcoin becoming more user-friendly with the passage of time.

A clip from this article says that:  >>>>>>BIP39 is part of the many BIPs (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals) that aim to improve the Bitcoin protocol. It was proposed in 2013 by Marek Palatinus, Pavol Rusnak, Aaron Voisine and Sean Bowe. It was implemented on Bitcoin in 2014 and has been adopted by many other cryptocurrency projects since then.<<<<<<<

I canont recall looking at bitbo.io.

I like this gold chart showing both ounces and grams so yeah it is getting close..

https://charts.bitbo.io/btc-gold/

We still have not quite met the ATH price of bitcoin against gold that was set in the two BTC price peaks in 2021, but it is getting very close - which also is a sign that gold is doing slightly better than it was in 2021 - but still gold's got nothing in terms of pumpamentals as compared with bitcoin.

Of course, bitcoin has a bit of an unfair advantage because is it is a new asset and with still quite low adoption that includes an unfulfilled addressable market that does not realize that they still need to be matched up with bitcoin, and so sure there is nothing wrong with gold, since it is quite sound money, as compared with other forms of money - but it had been getting beaten up by various dollar systems - and bitcoin happens to be right around 1,000x better than gold, but bitcoin is still priced ONLY around 1/10th or 1/11th of gold in terms of market caps... with bitcoin's market cap currently being just over $1.34 trillion and gold's being right around $14.1 trillion.

Bitcoin reaching gold parity this cycle seems quite reasonable, even though it might not be sustainable, even though bitcoin's reaching 10x gold parity within the next 2-3 cycles is also a reasonable factor even though it could take another cycle or two to become sustainable over that.

Speaking of sustainability, maybe I should take back a lot of what I had just said above, since I had been slipping into the common-man's error of analyzing these matters in terms of BTC spot prices, which many of us should already appreciate and recognize BTC's spot price to be far from reliable in terms of its sustainability - even though we can feel price cushions from BTC spot prices.. so I committed the error of failing/refusing to analyze this in terms of BTC's 200-WMA, which happens to currently be about half of BTC's spot price... but spot price is surely the part that is getting a lot of us excited right now, including but not limited to yours truly.

Yeah, I am not that excited about shitcoin's pumping, but they pumped pretty much all through the 2017 market.. and perhaps through the 2021 market too.. I did not pay as much attention in 2021, but I still remember that they were pumping in 2021 similar to bitcoin and seemingly frothy or overly frothy, but it did not seem to completely stop bitcoin from pumping too, sometimes the shitcoin's pumped more than bitcoin, but also fairly randomly regarding which ones were pumping and when.

Yeah, in 2021 you can blame them for the short-lived pump and also some of the scams upon the space with the fractional reserve bitcoin -- but  I am not going to go there completely in terms of trying to pinpoint exact causal relations for the lesser of a pump in 2021... even though by the time the correction came in 2022, there were some abilities for cascading contagion of the various gamblers and the fractional reservists.

Actually that sounds like fun.

I remember sometimes setting some really dumb orders, just to have the numerology on my books... both on the selling and the buying side.. mostly on the selling side though, because every few years when we are entering into new ATHs, we are moving into previously uncharted territory, so there is some kind of funzies in that... even though several months worth of ATHs (such as 2021) can sometimes start to cause us to take them for granted a bit when they are happening.


Sometimes we can also create a symbolic sale and then a symbolic buy back.., and sometimes if the price moves through the symbolic sale so quickly, there might not end up being a chance for the symbolic buy back to execute until several months later.. to the extent we might have had preserved the symbolic buy back.

I still have buy orders down to $20k, and they are surely feeling like symbolic in these here times.. I can hardly even imagine a fat thumb mistake being able to puncture those kinds of levels.. except maybe on some unknown exchange without any liquidity... .


You must be new here.

Dee cornz no doesn't work like that.


Patience young padawan.




We close the day at 12 midnight or 00:00 hours UTC..

So there is another 2.5 hours in the day.. as I type this post.

Look at the top 100 days in bitcoin thread.. which is the weighted traded volume/ BTC price.  

We are on track to have the top 3 or 4 days in bitcoin's history... yet there is still another 3.5 more hours remaining before the total calculation for today closes.. so it is going to be a close one. and based on so far numbers, I would imagine in the top 4 at minimum.  I don't think that it is very likely to get into the top 1 or 2.. even though it is not impossible.



Your aspirations are low, Philip.  Since we are here.. we are in hot butter zone..

We are not going to be hanging out in these here parts for very long..

I would imagine $70k to $74k are part of hot butter zone.

Don't u no nuttin'?


Neither is priced in, even though they are superficially known about.

They are not guttorially known (or physically/materially known).

You gotta be a true newb to be talking about selling in no man's land.


Good luck with that kind of thinking.


You are right in theory, but seems a bit problematic to be waiting for down in order to potentially prepare for up.


In other words, the ONLY way to prepare for UP is by buying BTC, and if you had not already bought some in the last 6 months between the prices of $25k and $57k.. and yeah, the earlier the better.. , then maybe the main way of preparing for more up is to buy some from here.

If you are a low coiner or no coiner, that might be the only choice.

Sure it might correct at some point, but it seems that we are too damned close to the ATH.. so it is quite difficult to expect any correction prior to $75k to $80k is and perhaps you r odds for getting a correction might get stronger once we get in the supra $82k territory.. especially if you are expecting more than a 8% correction, and lookie-uie pooie wanting to get more than an 18% correction.

Yeah sure those kinds things happen, especially when the market is moving quickly, but it is difficult to predict and/or anticipate, especially when so many folks are waiting for them.. they are more likely not going to get their way.

Good luck, and sorry for your loss.  

Fuck shitcoins.  There is no reason to engage in any compare/contrast.


It is hard to know.

There was a feeling that we got into no man's land kind of rapidly with our going pretty much straight from $52k to $64k in 50 hours, but then the pause back down and the correction only lasted 4-ish days with at most $5.5k .. but then coming back into the AYH and so far within only about 2% of the ATH.. with our current most recent bounce to $67,621 from a couple of hours ago.

but getting all the way through no man's land is one thing. and then questioning if we go beyond that and where there could be a correction or a pause.


Your numbers for gold seem way off.  In the last 6 months, maybe we could argue a price change from $1,900 to $2,116.  Perhaps, and that would be right around a 11.5% change.  Fuck gold.  

You may be saying something similar as me, and largely if a person has a handle on what is his discretionary/disposable income, then there should be no reason to spend beyond that and use money that is actually needed for expenses and/or desires.  

So it might be tough to be aggressive (and even extremely aggressive) without ending up using money that you actually need which is another way of describing gambling because if you need the money - even if it is further down the road, and you don't have a replacement for it, then you are likely gambling rather than investing and you are less able to withstand the volatility, especially when the volatility might run considerably against you.

Another thing.  I am not even against someone maxing out their discretionary income for investing into bitcoin as long that they have emergency funds, reserves and a float, but surely there could be times when people might not recognize the difference between money they have and money that might be part of a float that it actually going to end up being needed for an expenses that is not quite known, so then when the expense comes in, then it is higher than expected, even though it should have had been expected, but if a guy has several back up sources of funds, he can make up for some of the mistakes that he might make in terms of becoming overly aggressive, but sometimes several things will happen at once, and so in that regard, many times it would be safer to maintain a bit larger of emergency funds, reserves and float in order to be able to adapt to such mistakes without losing your investment.  

Another thing could be that a person has a friend who he knows will give him work if he needs the work, but he does not want to do that work; however, if he has some mistakes that he makes, then the extra  work could be part of his emergency fund.. even though it might only be a part of it, and not serving as his whole emergency fund/backup plan.

But sometimes if guys over do it, and then they get themselves into a pickle and they might not have a choice - because they failed to adequately plan - which planning does not even need to take place in advance, but can happen along side of investing into bitcoin, as long as matters are being accounted, and preparations for prices to go in any direction as well as various aspects of cashflow to potentially have variabilities that are not always known in advance.


We do not just consider our transaction fees at this time, but we try to prepare ourselves for the future, and that is part of the reason that I suggest larger UTXOs.. but you can do whatever you like.. if you have a bunch of $10 to $100 UTXOs, you may well end up regretting that in the future if you are not able to consolidate them for a reasonable fee or if they end up getting stuck because they are not economical to spend.. so sometimes there can be reasons to allow the CEX funds to build to a larger size, and if you choose to have lower sized UTXOs you also should consider that there is a certain amount of preventable risk (and cost) in that too... and some times we might be forced to do some things that we don't like also, so that is understandable, and one of the dilemmas in terms of dealing with smaller transaction sizes in bitcoin.


You surely would have to reassess from time to time.

So if you plan to invest for at least 10 years in bitcoin and then you consider that you might be able to invest 1-2 years salary into bitcoin during the next 10 years, but you are also expecting some possible bitcoin price appreciation, so you might have some ball park ideas about where you expect to go, and then when you get further down the line, you can try to reassess if you are where you expected to be, and maybe even some of your goals might end up changing, or you have some other factors that you need to take into account. 

So even though you are probably looking at your investment as it goes and maybe you are doing deeper analysis once or twice a year, and then maybe you are expecting that you have to get over certain boundaries before you might convert away from accumulation and in to maintenance, or maybe you will start to rake some of you profits at some point based on your reassessments and your projection of how it might play out.

It seems that if you have ONLY bought $40 of BTC since you started then you are far away from getting to a stage of reaching a point that you can start selling any BTC.  Yet of course, that is your choice.

In the end, it is probably better to think in terms of what are your current income and your expenses in order to figure out how many months (or years) worth of expenses/income do you want to have in your holdings before you might start to consider the employment of various raking strategies... and like I said, from my own point of view the raking strategies are not necessarily intended for the purpose of buying back lower, but surely you could end up in that position once you start to employ such raking strategies... but the main thing is to reach a level of sufficient accumulation and/or even over accumulation in such a way that the raking strategies make sense.  it is up to you to figure out if the raking strategies make sense.

I personally did not even consider the $1k invested (reaching a size of 0.04 BTC to be practical, and it really seemed short-sighted to me to be considering selling half of it merely based on the BTC price doubling.  So that was part of the motivation for plugging those numbers into the raking formula. ... so largely the formula that I was using was to authorize selling 10% every time the price doubled, and again that ONLY makes sense to start to employ that strategy after you have reached a high enough level, and if you have already decided that you have more than a 10-year timeline, then you would be buying right now rather than selling.  and if you have ONLY bought $40 since August, it is not easy to consider that you are taking serious the idea of buying BTC, especially if you are talking about selling rather than buying.


Well that is too bad if people might have some of their money (BTC) locked up.  Sometimes poor people might take a while before they build up enough of an investment in BTC before it make sense for them to withdraw, and especially in recent times, I have been frequently suggesting to get up to $500 or $1k worth of BTC, which might be 1 million to 3 million satoshis before withdrawing to a private wallet.. based on transaction fees....

but some people might take many months of their savings and even years before they get up to $500 to $1k worth of BTC built up, and I suppose some exchanges are more risky than others, too...so we are not always going to know how much balance to keep on exchanges prior to withdrawing to private wallet, but it makes little sense to me to have a bunch of $10 to $100 transactions that might have their periods of difficulty to have those kinds of relatively small UTXOs.


Fair enough about knowing the basics, but I would describe the basics as having your financial (and perhaps psychological) house in order sufficiently enough to know how much discretionary/disposable income that you have, and so those are kinds of basic financial management, and you can get started in bitcoin by just knowing if you have extra money that you are able to invest, and the more that you invest into bitcoin, the more that you are going to make sure that you are spending within your discretionary income and not money that you need for expenses.  So then if you project your income versus expenses out into the future, you would likely realize that there may well be some potential short-falls and/or uncertainties, so in that regard you have to figure out ways to have cushions in your finances such as emergency funds, reserve funds and floats to make sure that you don't run out of money or need to sell any of your investment (into BTC) at a time that is other than your own complete choosing. 

These kinds of matters can be sorted out as you go and as you invest into BTC, yet you would not want to be overly aggressive with your investment into BTC until you have solid grounds in terms of your personal financial management, but you can get started within basic ideas about whether or not you have some extra discretionary income to get started and then work out the details regarding how to continue to invest as you make sure that your finances and psychology is in order, which could take a bit of time, if you had not previously been an investor.


For sure, I was attempting to show a more modest version of selling on the way up, rather than selling 50% after a doubling, but yeah, it does not make a lot of sense to me either to be selling based on a mere accumulation of $1k worth of BTC that was 0.04 BTC, and with ONLY a short amount of time in BTC.

I know that it is not advisable to keep your bitcoin in an exchange, but I don't see how an investor from Nigeria who has his bitcoin currently in an exchange, because he is buying with little amount for as low as $50-$100 a week so that it can be saved till it gets up to $500 and above before sending it to your private wallet, so that in future, when transaction fee is high it will not affect your output, will be affected by Naira being removed from Binance and no more p2p for Nigerians.

The reason why I said that it is not a problem is because, you are not selling but you are piling it up, and Binance did not restrict anyone from Nigeria from transferring their coins to other wallet. So the person that has his coins in Binance will simply transfer his coins to his self custody wallet, without a problem. You cannot make use of p2p in Binance does not mean that if you are having your bitcoin there, it is stuck. However, the investor from Nigeria can still use other exchanges like Kucoin, and OKX to buy bitcoin because the law on Binance did not affect them. I bought bitcoin recently from Kucoin, is just that their transaction fee for transfer is 10% of the amount that you want to transfer.
[/quote]

Your explanation sounds correct, Ruttoshi... sometimes options close, but that would not necessarily mean that the Binance users in Nigeria had been rug pulled, even if one of their on/off ramps might have been closed.. but surely sometimes one thing happens that leads to another thing, and sometimes we might need to recognize signs of our coins potentially being more at risk when there are greater levels of hostility that might take place within any particular jurisdiction.  People can sometimes get nervous and panic because they might not know which options are available to them.

I thought that we discussed this previously and largely rejected it because there are so many variabilities in both tax treatments, but also how tax treatments could be offset by the individual too (including if they might have some of their funds in tax privileged accounts).  I would not be opposed to any kind of an additional general slider that might incorporate anticipated extra "fees or taxes" that a person could self-select a percentage expectation.


I would not want to add any presumed extra advanced monthly withdrawal to the simulator - because the extra monthly withdrawal is complicated and very discretionary.  I largely mentioned the advance monthly withdrawal not being in the simulator because I anticipated that it would not have been in there and should not have had been in there.  The tool is already complicated enough, just the idea of it, since so many folks gravitate towards calculating their strategies towards spot price, and this tool is attempting to ground calculations based on the 200-WMA, even though in the real world, the price that we get for making sales is going to be spot price at the time of any of our sales.

Sure, you could put something like monthly withdrawals into the simulator for the middle of the range as an automatic, but then once it gets executed then the clock would start to run in regards to if the middle of the next range is hit in order to calculate potential additional months of withdrawal, and so if the BTC price continues to move up an then it hits the middle of the next range, then further advance months could be withdrawn automatically but how much could be withdrawn may well depend upon how much time has passed between the earlier withdrawal and the next withdrawal, but then if the price moves down a couple of levels, then some of the months could be bought back (perhaps starting at the middle of the range of at least 2 levels down, but we would have to invent a formula for that (or an input fields that say how many levels down is going to be the buy back and then what percentage will be bought back at each level and then how much time passed between the sale and the buying back).  It is way too complicated and discretionary and without any formulas that would likely be needed to be customizable.

I think that it almost defeats the whole purpose of the tool to be getting too caught up and distracted into seemingly trading dynamics rather than the intended sustainable withdrawal ideas that would not revolve so much around the potential trading aspects of the advance withdrawal ideas.  

The reason that I put advance withdrawal within the framework in the first place is to have some discretionary options in place to be able to get some guidelines regarding the extent to which the BTC price as compared to the 200-WMA is at any point in time is becoming frothy and/or overly-frothy, and there are surely degrees of frothiness in the BTC price, so the more frothiness the greater the ability to withdraw more months in advance, yet it may not even make sense to withdraw months in advance at certain levels of BTC's price performance.

For example, right now when we are going through the middle of noman's land (from $55k to $82k-ish), and it might not make sense to be withdrawing month's in advance in places like this, even though the tool allows for it.. and a person might even get nervous about withdrawing 23, 35, 47 or 59 months in advance for some of the higher ends (the 200-400% range or the 400-650% range or the 650 to 900% range or the 900% to 1,400% range or the 1,400% range), even though the tool allows those specific levels of advance withdrawals at each of those levels.

The 2021 price run ONLY got into the lower end of the 400-650% range, and only during the early peak.  The second 2021 peak, even though the BTC spot price ended up higher, it was only in the lower end of the 200-400% range.  The 2013 and the 2017 price runs surely ran into the supra 1,400% range, the highest for the tool, which I am not sure if those kind of discrepancies are going to to happen again (especially the level of the one in 2013 in which BTC spot price reached more than 2,600% higher than the 200WMA), yet we later saw that they would have been good times to sell extra to make it through the subsequent bear market (but we did not know that at the time or in advance).

So maybe I should be bothered by the tool even recommending the consideration of advance withdraw, which causes me to consider that maybe I should attempt to explain within the tool a bit better what I am wanting to say about my recommendation to consider and to employ advance withdrawal - which I probably don't even know what I mean, exactly.. . because I am probably trying to say that it should be seriously considered to use the advance withdrawal.. but at the same time to have some kind of idea within your own thinking about when you might employ such idea, and in the mean time a place to put the withdrawn money and realize that it could later be used to live off the money if the BTC price drops or to be used to buy back months in order to go back to using using the tool for sustainable monthly withdrawals.. because if you sell months in advance then you cannot sell further months if the price drops below that range until the months have passed.. and all of this would be self-directed and potentially complicated to keep track of.


If trying to employ for the simulator, we would have to figure out formulas for when the withdrawals would be exercised that would thereby account for the date that it was executed, and if further advance withdrawals are authorized and thereby executed by the tool because the BTC price reached the next authorization threshold, then it would need to account for how much time passed since the previous advance withdrawal execution in order to calculate the balance of how many months would be remaining for the next advance withdrawal.


The buying back could be some kind of formula like is used in my raking tool, but it would also have to consider passage of time in terms of how many months could still be bought back.  We would also have to consider that when the BTC price drops that the sold months could be bought back at lower amounts, so there likely would be some discretion in terms of calculating if a month is fully bought back.


We have not gotten into discussion of adapting these tools for future withdrawals, which like you said would have to have a prediction element.  My entry-level fuck you status chart has a prediction element that seems to be changing all the time, but it attempts to predict the 200-WMA, in a 4-year cycle fashion that may or may not end up playing out, and while my fuck you status chart does not try to predict BTC spot price, a range of possible BTC spot prices could be implied from the attempts to predict the 200-WMA.. which again is all amorphous.

I think with any kinds of sustainable withdrawal tool, there is are presumptions about the growth likelihood of the underlying assets, and in the traditional financial world, 4% is considered to be sustainable withdrawal based on expectations that the underlying assets in the investment portfolio will perform at least 4% on average... So in bitcoin, we likely can presume higher than 4%, more like 6-10% seems more than reasonable and even conservative, since I backed tested the tool and even 30% seems to work for BTC, even though I would not want to rely on 30% continuing to be sustainable.. so I personally believe it remains more than conservative enough to continue to stay with 6% to 10% as our defined "moderate" sustainable withdrawal rate.

By the way, I consider my raking tool to be way more practical (and straight-forward) for the basic ideas of managing your BTC holdings since there are not as many variables to play with, especially if you are not sure if you have enough BTC yet... so using this sustainable withdrawal tool way too prematurely (before you have enough BTC or able to establish using it with a certain quantity of your BTC), then you may well end up with way less BTC than you should have because you may well end up selling way too many BTC too soon, rather than erroring on the side of HODLing - even though the sustainable withdrawal tool gives a lot of guidelines for establishing a potential monthly budget with a certain quantity of BTC as the base... and yeah it does not hurt to provide guys more and more tools, even if they might end up using them differently from their original design intentions.  

Looks good, and it seems like your second day.. or would it be day and a half.. since the first table that you posted was a lot shorter than the current one. ..

In any event, you seem to be laying out the information pretty well (readable), getting a hang for it, and there is probably a lot more work getting used to it.., which several of us (including but not limited to yours truly) don't know how to do it... so thanks for jumping into the void...

Your wish has increasingly decent chances to be granted, so in that regard, $84k seems quite likely to play out on or before the halvening (which is right around April 19-21-ish), or at least in the $78k to $82k or more, which might include $84k.

Now, if we were to attempt to assign odds.. maybe I might be so bold as to proclaim $78k to $83k on or before the halvening to have odds of 57/43 and getting up to $84k or greater I would guess to be perhaps 55.555555/44.444444.. so looking good, but surely no promises from this here cat. .not that I know much of anything beyond having "feelings.tinglilings"


I am not sure if we disagree or not.. My memory is fading, even though I am not much of a fan of those who poo-poo stock to flow - even though PlanB likely needs to be poo-pooed a bit more for the level of some of his proclamations of certainty, but that might be more of a problem of delivery rather than faultiness of the underlying ideas. 

Overall I continue to consider stock to flow to be a great model, even if it has been wrong with specifics and likely continue to be wrong with specifics, but still it seems that BTC prices mostly stay within normal ranges - even though maybe dragging down the mean and/or dragging down what would be considered normal ranges even accounting for some times going within 1 or 2 standard deviations outside of the range.

Part of the reason that I appreciate stock to flow so much is that it largely relies on the ongoing upward movement of the 200-WMA as it's bottom, yet of course, it is going to not necessarily be correct about the spot price, and I don't give as many shits about spot price since many of us recognize and appreciate that spot price is going to continue to be all over the place, while at the same time likely mostly be inclining upwardly and continuing to move the 200-WMA upwardly, which seems to be the main punchline that the stock-to-flow model has historically shown and continues to show.   


Huh?

What selling pressure?^**  (even if my response would have had been more timely.. it should be considered quite amazing that we are hardly getting any BTC price corrections after going up $12k within 50 hours and then merely correcting around $5k-ish.. and then dabbling around in mostly a $2k to $3k correction zone for a few days..

You must be new around these here parts..





Wait........





 


**no one is going to be dumb enough to take profits in noman's land.. especially not the longer term investors.. that's part of the reason that it can be labeled as no man's land since the only peeps selling in these here parts are newbies who think that everyone else is selling (or would be or should be selling) and they are too caught up in watching 1-minute candles.


Those people do not count for much of anything.. .. they cannot move the market, and perhaps even the ones just coming into bitcoin since October 2023 are not early enough to move the market...  there is too much buying pressure and momentum and all that good stuff that makes no man's land a place to not be selling.. yet at the same time we did move into noman's land quite quickly.. but we are still retaining it.. so it is hard to even say it was too quickly..

You should be thinking about investors who are 4 years or longer and figure out what they are doing.. if that is even a potentially important way to be thinking about these kinds of short-term BTC price movement matters (aka noise)..


Still sounds dumb to be selling in the middle of no man's zone.. especially a whole half of a coin.  Maybe sell 0.1 or 0.2 at the most... but still seems pretty short-sighted, absent some other facts to explain.. and another thing, short term players/traders who bought at the bottom like that likely already sold..


There is no problem selling small amounts at various points, but you should be considering based on your own situation rather than thinking about what others are doing.

If you are nervous about it, then sell some.. but you might be regretting selling too much too soon, so you have to be careful with how you manage these matters, especially if you are still trying to accumulate coins.. so there should be no rush to sell them, merely because you can get some profits... but you gotta make those kinds of calculations for yourself. including do you have enough and when you might feel comfortable to start shaving some profits. 

Looking at your forum registration date, sure it is possible that you might have had been able to accumulate and to over accumulate in the last couple of years, but you probably still should consider how careful you might need to be in terms of overly shaving off profits.. unless maybe you worked something out in terms my raking tool.. as I mentioned in a post that I just made a few hours ago.

That sounds like a lot for the first time, especially if you are not used to pushups.  You might be feeling sore for a few days, but hopefully you are able to keep doing it, and maybe keep a journal so that "we" (at least those of us participating in this supposed "fun") might reach $100k with confidence and strength.


I probably could not have done 30 or 40 in a row when we started, yet I am regularly doing between 25 and 35 - and once in a while 40, so my 40s are still feeling a lot of pain, and yeah it will be interesting if I am going to be able to get more than 40 in a set, which most likely will be stages of 45 and 50 and 55 etc etc.. I am not sure if I am going to be able to add more than 5 at a time, absent some kind of sudden spurt in strength and endurance... one more set for today, and that will be 28 days... oh my... still hurting.

It would be cool if some member were to put together a chart to keep track of everyone willing to report our number of pushups or whatever other activities we might want to use as a substitute and maybe update the chart weekly or in whatever frequency is convenient.  That might cause some peer pressures... hahahahaha.. even though I am doubting if there would be a category for qualty of pushups rather than self-reports of quantity.  #justsaying.

You are referring to my post that relates to my raking tool that is based on rpietla's SSS plan.  And, rpietla has a thread on that too that is linked within that post.

The foundation of the raking tool is that there is a presumption that you have already accumulated more than enough BTC, so there is a certain presumption that whenever you sell any BTC, you are selling with an expectation that you might never be able to buy back, so in that regard you would not sell for small profits, even though you may well only sell a small portion of your BTC holdings.  For example, no more than 10% of your BTC stash for every time that it doubles in price.

The tool that I created does have a section in which you can calculate a probability that you would be able to buy back the BTC that you sold in up to three possible levels, so it is not exactly intended to be used for trading, even though you could sell some small parts of your BTC holdings and then just keep the money (proceeds available) in case the BTC price drops to a certain percentage amount and then you would buy back using some or all of your proceeds from what  you had sold earlier.  I tend to describe these kinds of tactics in terms of insurance for downside rather than trading or necessarily wanting to get more BTC buy buying back lower, but if the BTC price happens to go down to a great enough extent to trigger the buy back of some or all of the BTC, then that would be a kind of side benefit.. even though the overall presumption from my perspective is to sell such a small amount that you are not intending to buy back.. but if the BTC price goes down you would end up buying back.

You can set those buy back levels wherever you like and you can also attempt to use all proceeds to try to buy back lower or you can remove the proceeds so that you are not using proceeds from whatever you sell to buy back in the event that the BTC price goes lower.

There is also a link within that post in which you can go to fillippone's Google spreadsheet and you can input your own numbers in order to play around with the various possibilities to see how the numbers might vary.

Of course, in your example, if you bought $1k worth of bitcoin at $25k and you ended up getting 0.04 BTC, then you could sell half of that amount at $50k to get your $1k back, and potentially try to buy back cheaper.  I surely don't play around with my BTC in those kinds of BIG ways (you would be gambling rather than investing), but instead if you might start to withdraw some BTC starting at $50k and you ONLY have 0.04 BTC, then maybe I might consider potentially selling up to 10% of the BTC stash the first time that the BTC doubles, and then if I wanted to stay consistent, but I did not want to wait for the BTC to double each time, then instead I might sell up to 2.5% of the BTC stash every time that the BTC price went up an additional 25%.  So if we did not calculate buying back, and we strictly consider selling without buying back, then formula for the selling rakes that I described would look like this: 



You see that the total value of the BTC holdings in terms of dollars keeps going up and you are not raking off more than just a portion of the profits, so that you still are able to enjoy compounding effects, which you run the risk of not enjoying compounding effects if you sell off too much of your principle.  Of course you can play around with the numbers, and you may well prefer to shave off higher portions, but I think that you are nutso if you shave off half the profits merely because the BTC price doubled, then you have absolutely no compounding effect and you end up losing a lot of bitcoin's potential Upward price power. 

For sure, in the end, you can do what you want.

Now let's say that you want to use 100% of the proceeds to try to buy back lower, so you try to figure out your chances of buying back upon certain price drops, which surely is going to have lower probabilities the lower that you expect to be able to buy back, so you can plug those into your expectations and it might look something like this.





You set three buy back orders with a 10% drop, a 20% drop and a 30% drop, and you assign probabilities of 30%, 15% and 8% respectively.  With the buy back you end up with more BTC with the passage of time and you also end up having had raked more BTC into dollars (meaning a higher dollar value raked). 

So there can be advantages to buying back, as long as you attempt to set some realistic expectations and don't overly expect to be able to buy back, which would include not selling a lot on the way up so that you can profit on the upside. 

Now if your goal is to accumulate BTC and you feel that you have not accumulated enough BTC, yet, then you probably should not be employing any kind of tools to sell BTC with expectations of being able to buy back, since it seems that you need to first get to a certain high enough level of BTC so that you generally have the sense that you have accumulated enough BTC to be able to feel comfortable shaving some BTC off along the way as the BTC price likely goes up with the passage of time.  I hardly would consider 0.04  BTC to be even close to enough BTC to start such a selling on the way up technique since you are likely still accumulating BTC.. so you would be selling with one hand and buying with the other, yet at the same time, I am not opposed to those who might continue to buy BTC with a DCA method and then try to supplement with some kind of raking strategy, even though it seems a bit contradictory and you may well end up either confusing yourself and/or realizing that instead of buying and selling, maybe you should just focus on buying until you have enough (or more than enough) first before prematurely fucking around with selling.

Hardly anyone listened in the real world.  There were a couple of examples of people partly listening, but then they end up screwing up in various ways of selling too much too soon or getting involved in shitcoins and other things like that, and sometimes they just say, I should have listened to you, and then I will say, "well get started now, it is not too late."  But they still do not tend to get started, and some of them who listen the second, third or forth time around, they still make similar mistakes of getting shaken out of their position one way or another or having "bills to pay" and blah blah blah.


Well I also suggested to people to just start with $10 per week and just get used to it, even though since 2020, I have been saying $100 per week is preferable, but still if they are whimpy about it, they can do whatever, they like and they should be able to manage $10 per week to get used to it..

I do recognize that people from poorer countries might struggle with $10 per week, so they have to figure out an amount that works for their budget, such as $10 per month, and then try to figure if there might be a way that they can increase their investment later by either increasing their income or cutting their expenses.


I am not going to deny that it is does take time to add anything to our lives, whether it is buying $10 of bitcoin per week or anything else that we might want to add.. or if we need to learn how to use a new hardware wallet. That might take time to study up on it.  So, there is a need to prioritize, and to make time for something like investing, even if it might be a relatively small amount of someones salary.. and if they don't want to think about it, then they can get involved in some of the exchanges that allow for automatic DCA on a certain day of the week or there are various ways to set it up.  I personally prefer manual DCA, but I understand that if someone does not want to think about it, then they might set up an automatic DCA and look at it every few months or whatever suits the other things going on in their lives.


Waiting is not a good strategy when it comes to bitcoin, even though buying on dips can be a decently good supplemental strategy... yet the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy some... so if they are waiting for a dip and they don't have any BTC then they are preparing for ONLY one direction, which seems quite dumb, unless they happen to be some kind market (or bitcoin) expert, but if they were either a bitcoin or a market expert, they would have had already bought BTC, so still what good does it do to wait, unless you really are not serious about actually investing for the long term, such as for 4-10 years or longer.

Shitcoins are a distraction, but yeah, we cannot stop people from getting distracted and/or wanting to show that they are smarter, even though they may well end up being dumber if they get sucked into that nonsense - even though many of the shitcoin's spend quite a bit of time marketing to attract money into them.


Right away tends to be the right time to start, so we cannot know if the BTC price is going to go up or down from here, yet there are ways to try to prepare for either direction, including DCA amongst the better of the tactics, but sometimes, if someone has a lump sum that they could invest they might start out with putting in a lump sum and then having some plan regarding supplementing with DCA and/or buying on dips... until they get to an accumulation position that they would like to reach.


There could be a variety of situations including mistakes along the way too.  But there also could be just general ongoing accumulation up until a point in which they might start to feel that they have enough..  but yeah over the years, some people will screw up their accumulation  and/or their holding through various periods or they might start to cash out too much too soon.  So there can be quite a few ways that guys can make mistakes, especially over a period of 11 years or so.

Sometimes they can make up for mistakes that they made by starting to employ more prudent tactics, and other times they keep making the same or similar mistakes over and over and over, even if they might be asserting that they are learning and/or improving their strategies, which may or may not end up outperforming a more straight-forward and/or modest DCA approach. 

In other words, many times a relatively modest DCA approach will outperform a lot of other methods that try to time the market, and sure I have no problem with front loading of a DCA approach or even supplementing DCA with buying on dips and/or lump sum investing, but many folks will do better with starting out with DCA because they might not have any extra cash that they can hold aside for buying on dips or extra cash that they are able to front-load their investment with lump sum investing.

I am not sure what would have caused such an error, but what you are describing in regards to the difference in our time zones does not seem to identify the problem.

 Because once the day closes (which is midnight UTC), then the weighted price amount of BTC traded for that day for that previous date is no longer changing (it is locked into the final amount), so then the date is locked in within the raw data of the weighted price for the day.  

So for example as I am typing this post, it is 21:35 UTC (or 9:35 PM UTC)- which means that today's date (March 3, 2024) will close in the next 2 hours and 25 minutes, so then as long as you run your script sometime into the next day or after March 3, 2024, then your script should gather up the closing data for March 3, 2024 and for the previous days.

I like it.  It is interesting, and it helps to inform some potential suggestions.  The format also looks nice.

In order to test it out, I entered in the fuck you status number of coins for June 2019, and even if we were to employ the most aggressive withdrawal rate (of 30%), our dollar value of our coins continued to grow throughout the period, which goes to show that historically using any withdrawal rate within the tool would have resulted in both conservatism in regards to withdrawal and also an ongoing growth of the dollar value of the BTC, even if the BTC stash may have had ended up shrinking stupendously.

The fact that even the most maximum of withdrawal rates had not historically ended up with depletion of the BTC stash, it may well be better if the withdrawal percentage would increase to higher rates, maybe even all the way up to 100%, and for those higher rates we might want to call them intentional depletion rates, even though it could be possible that they still do not end up depleting the BTC stash in terms of ongoing increase in value.. depending on future BTC price movements and also depending on how much the 200-WMA continues to go up.  On the other hand, I do expect that BTC is going to experience a lot lower future BTC price (and 200-WMA) appreciation values (you can see that I have already accounted for much lower values in my Entry-level fuck you status chart - even though currently, it is looking too conservative), because there are most likely ceilings in BTC's addressable market.

Since past results do not translate into future results, I remain comfortable to keep with the seemingly conservative recommendations of the tool in regards to how the withdrawal rates are labeled... even though it seems that any withdrawal rate under 10% may well likely end up being considered ways to continue to grow your BTC investment holdings (in terms of dollar value of your holdings) in spite of engaging in ongoing withdrawal within the bounds of the tool.    

Maybe another punchline could be that historically in bitcoin, as long as we are using the 200-WMA as our BTC valuation, there may be no need to reach full fuck you status in order to pull the fuck you lever, and we might well be able to start to use BTC portfolio stash amounts far less than expected in order to get started with our living a fuck you status lifestyle.. but we still need to reach a certain number of BTC in order to make it practical to get started with such withdrawals, since it is likely that dollar debasement is going to continue and we are going to want to continue to ensure that we have a sufficient cushion - which is supposed to be part of the justification of the tool in terms of not depleting the principle of our BTC stash and being able to live off of BTC's ongoing price appreciation, without over doing it..  

Once we get to a status of being able to withdraw from our BTC stash, it should not matter in the negative that we end up having some extra cushion in the dollar value of our BTC holdings.  Of course, I am only referring to strict withdrawal rather than the extra steps that would be required for any guys who might be engaging in advance withdrawals that presume selling the BTC and potentially buying back months if the BTC spot price drops at least a couple of levels below the range in which they had ended up employing the advance withdrawals.

Suggestions:

For some reason I am a little discombobulated by the lack of separation in regards to the entrance of the current stash size versus the historically projected stack size.  So for example, when I enter 540 BTC which would have had been the fuck you status level for June 1, 2019, and if I indicate an annual withdrawal rate of 30%, the tool shows that currently, I still would have 174 BTC (which is more than 3x current fuck you status - see my entry-level fuck you status chart), and in such a scenario I would have had withdrawn $11.5 million over the past nearly 5 years.  Of course, right now if I only have 174 BTC remaining, then that would be my current amount in which I would consider how much do I want to (or that I am authorizing myself to) withdraw and I choose if I want to stick with the same rate of withdrawal or to employ a different rate.. of course in this case, I cannot go any higher since the tool maxes out at 30%.

It's almost like I would prefer to have the current period for projecting forward and the simulated past period to have their own input and output areas, even though that would lead to a certain level of redundancy - and maybe it would have to be on a separate page if the two concepts (or two calculators might potentially interfere with each other?).  It seems to me that the simulator portion of the tool is not engaging in withdrawals of months in advance or buying back months, so the simulation does not need to have the advance withdrawal portion of the tool when it is calculating how the numbers would have had played out historically.  

In other words, for the current portion, I know what is my current BTC stash size (which I might actually have that number of BTC or I might be imagining an amount of BTC that I want to put into the tool or I might want to use of fraction of the amount of BTC that I already have and put that amount of BTC into the tool).

For historical portion (and/or the simulation), if I was using the tool and engaging in historical withdrawal, if I want to end up with the same amount of BTC that I have now, then by definition, I would have had to have started with more BTC than now in order to still have the number of BTC that I have right now.  

It is not practical for me to apply my present stash to past withdrawals, even though sure I might want to see what the historical numbers look like for my present stash size, yet at the same time, if I hypothesize using my present BTC stash size for past withdrawals I know that with the use of this tool, I currently would not have as many BTC as I have right now, which seems to justify having redundant input areas and redundant output areas for the current projection forward and for the projection of past performance (or the simulation) based on how many BTC I might have had in the past or how many BTC I speculate myself to have had in the past.  

I am interested to hear what other guys have to say.  Does anyone understand it? or find it useful for anything in the ball park for what we might be trying to achieve here?  I know that there were a few guys who mentioned their desires to see how the tool would perform historically, so here is the chance for some of those guys to chime in.  Do "we" (royal that is) need to name any names or to ask directly to certain members in regards to the guys who said that they wanted some kind of historical rendition of the tool?

In late 2013, when I got into bitcoin MTGox was having freezes of withdrawals but it was still operating and people were sending money over there even after it had frozen withdrawals, yet I did not want to get involved in that craziness, but I did get involved with Localbitcoins, which made it easier to connect with individuals for peer to peer trades.

There was also Bitinstant, but it seems that Bitinstant was a bit before my time too.. but I recall the surprise of Charlie Shrem's arrest in January 2014.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Shrem

I am sensing that part of the difficulty comes from an inability to prove a negative, which contributes to the logic that non-ones coins are going to be replaced once they lose access to their private keys and/or are otherwise unable to figure out how to access their coins.

So ownership of BTC revolves around whether you have the private keys, and if you say that you don't have the private keys, there is no way to really verify that; however, we can verify that you have the private keys when you enter them and you access your BTC wallet.

In the end, it seems that the main solution would be making bitcoin more divisible, in the event that one satoshi starts to become too expensive and too impractical as the smallest unit, and so if a decent amount of private keys are lost and continue to get lost (which seems almost inevitable that keys are going to continue to get lost), then whichever coins are left might need to be subdivided further in the event that there are not enough coins to go around or their are not able to be used in the transaction of goods, services and/or other reasons for transacting value.