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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26369627 times)
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JayJuanGee
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March 13, 2024, 04:32:30 AM

A new Tuesday ATH would be enjoyable
we did it 73 k on coinbase and bitmex


Fuck coinbase

and

fuck bitmex.

How much bitcoin (in percent) do you guys have of bitcoin in your overall portfolio?

I have nearly 30%, which i always thought to be quiet large.. however, I have the feelings it should be more now. at least 50%  Cheesy

I have no shitcoins, just traditional investments.

There is no need to reallocate for the mere sake of reallocation, just because traditional investment advisors make such recommendations (and some of the traditional investment advisors are forced to reallocate on a regular basis - including that some of them are forced to hold 70% government bonds, which truly has been a stupid and/or losing practice in the past several years. but they still make advisements that normies should do the same thing that they are required to do.

there is a great practice of allowing your winners to ride.

For my own investment history, I largely invested 10% into bitcoin by the end of 2014, but then I ended up overinvesting in 2015 to nearly 13.5% because the BTC price was down throughout 2015, and I still continued to buy...so that is how I got up to 13.5% invested into bitcoin, however, now my allocation is close to 90% and that is not because of my investing new value from bitcoin but instead because of it's appreciation relative to all my other investments.

So largely my other investments doubled in the last 10 years, but my bitcoin outpaced them all and so my bitcoin went up around 70x or more.. and so sure I had been shaving off some profits here and there over the last 10 years, but the investment largely was allowed to continue to ride.. and so the total amount that I have in cash is worth about 1.5x the total amount that I invested into BTC... although I still use that cash as working capital, but I can also spend it whenever I like too.. or I can just cash out a bit of bitcoin with a 70x profit at any time, too.. so to me it seems to not be a big deal to just let that the winner (BTC in this case) ride.. mostly.

Of course, since I was overinvested since late 2015, I have been using my rake system (represented in this post), and that is part of the reason that I have a lot of cash on hand, too.. but the cash is still less than 2.5% the size (value) of my BTC holdings.. but it is plenty if I need to draw upon it or to perhaps cash out a bit extra if I need it here and there along the way..

By the way, I recommend ONLY around a 5% to 25% allocation to bitcoin for newbies who are just entering into bitcoin, and surely they have to figure out their allocation, and so yeah, 25% would be on the side of more bullish and aggressive in regards to the bitcoin allocation, and 5% would be towards the side of whimpy... yet at the same time, I personally consider that reallocation is not really necessary, even though people have to figure out their allocation levels based on all of their own individual financial and psychological factors.

How much bitcoin (in percent) do you guys have of bitcoin in your overall portfolio?

I have nearly 30%, which i always thought to be quiet large.. however, I have the feelings it should be more now. at least 50%  Cheesy
Why would I have anything in anything else?
 Huh
Bonds, ETF, not talking about shitcoins lol

Other allocations would traditionally be considered as stocks, bonds, properties, commodities, cash and/or cash equivalents.

You can see how my allocations changed through the years at the bottom of this post.. starting from late 2013 until mid-2022.. I have not yet updated, but probably will update at or near the height of this current cycle rather than when we are largely seeming to be in the middle of this particular cycle (or maybe even early-middle of this cycle).

How much bitcoin (in percent) do you guys have of bitcoin in your overall portfolio?
I have nearly 30%, which i always thought to be quiet large.. however, I have the feelings it should be more now. at least 50%  Cheesy
Why would I have anything in anything else?
 Huh
For once, because it is difficult and expensive to trade btc in IRAs (individual retirement accounts, which most Americans have).
My btc is currently about 66-70%, with % rising fast  Grin.
I went 0 to 20% during the first 12 mo of accumulation; after that: one largish sell, then only small buys and sells.

Re s-tcoins: it could be fun if you only invest/gamble a small sum. To me, it beats gambling in Vegas. You can put a few bucks on some stupid coin and win 1000% in a few days/months or lose everything. I don't pretend to make a "portfolio" out of this. It's just a game, just like Gamestop and AMC was a "game" for some people to take the sorry state of affairs (quarantines, etc) off of their minds in 2021.

It is funny that you criticize me for my ongoing selling of BTC ever since $250.. but my allocation went from 13.5% to nearly 90% based merely on BTC price appreciation and inspite of my ongoing and various sells along the way.

I think that my allocation into bitcoin would be even higher if I had not exercised my ongoing sales along the way... and yeah, maybe we are just making all of this shit up.. but it's gotta somehow make sense..

I can hardly imagine in your own scenario how you would ONLY be at 66% to 70% if you had ONLY made 1 big sell and you supposedly allocated 20%, which is 6.5% more than me.

By the way, I am not completely aloof to the idea of buying various things, so there have been some changes in my investments over the last 10 years, but still a lot of whatever had been taken out of bitcoin - including that I probably already taken out quite a bit more than I invested (but who's counting.. not even counting the losses. .those don't really count, right?) .. .. anyhow. .I was kind of not wanting to go up to 90% so early in the cycle.. but what am I supposed to do? sell more and then what? what will I buy with it?  buy some headache?  Yeah, there might be some investment(s) that are not headaches.
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March 13, 2024, 04:51:13 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)

How much bitcoin (in percent) do you guys have of bitcoin in your overall portfolio?
I have nearly 30%, which i always thought to be quiet large.. however, I have the feelings it should be more now. at least 50%  Cheesy
Why would I have anything in anything else?
 Huh
For once, because it is difficult and expensive to trade btc in IRAs (individual retirement accounts, which most Americans have).
My btc is currently about 66-70%, with % rising fast  Grin.
I went 0 to 20% during the first 12 mo of accumulation; after that: one largish sell, then only small buys and sells.

Re s-tcoins: it could be fun if you only invest/gamble a small sum. To me, it beats gambling in Vegas. You can put a few bucks on some stupid coin and win 1000% in a few days/months or lose everything. I don't pretend to make a "portfolio" out of this. It's just a game, just like Gamestop and AMC was a "game" for some people to take the sorry state of affairs (quarantines, etc) off of their minds in 2021.

It is funny that you criticize me for my ongoing selling of BTC ever since $250.. but my allocation went from 13.5% to nearly 90% based merely on BTC price appreciation and inspite of my ongoing and various sells along the way.

I think that my allocation into bitcoin would be even higher if I had not exercised my ongoing sales along the way... and yeah, maybe we are just making all of this shit up.. but it's gotta somehow make sense..

I can hardly imagine in your own scenario how you would ONLY be at 66% to 70% if you had ONLY made 1 big sell and you supposedly allocated 20%, which is 6.5% more than me.

By the way, I am not completely aloof to the idea of buying various things, so there have been some changes in my investments over the last 10 years, but still a lot of whatever had been taken out of bitcoin - including that I probably already taken out quite a bit more than I invested (but who's counting.. not even counting the losses. .those don't really count, right?) .. .. anyhow. .I was kind of not wanting to go up to 90% so early in the cycle.. but what am I supposed to do? sell more and then what? what will I buy with it?  buy some headache?  Yeah, there might be some investment(s) that are not headaches.

Don't over-analyze it. The numbers I posted are correct, but I didn't say before what I did with the other 80%.
In short, I made two "lucky" and largish equity investments sequentially. This amplified the rest of the portfolio quite a bit.
After that, I split my equity portfolio 50:50 with 50% money market fund (it is my "anchor" so I don't have to worry much about volatility) and 50% continued to be in speculative names, some of which were tech stocks. As you know, tech stocks did quite well in the last decade....so...here we are.

TL;DR Bitcoin did not reach 90% yet because equities did well (so far).
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March 13, 2024, 05:01:14 AM


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March 13, 2024, 05:31:47 AM

It also looks like this charge downward is being led by bitfinex, which makes me think that it's a lot of people putting in shorts in an attempt to profit from a falling price...  This might end up being dangerous for them as another move up and more liquidations near the all time high can cause a short squeeze pretty easily.  Ultimately, it's squeezing the shorts that will make this market go parabolic now.  The ETFs make it so easy for anyone to short BTC, the market building up a lot of shorts is inevitable.  I think their timing is off though and it could sting them...  Imagine going short right before supply is cut in half.  That can't be a winning bet.

hahahahaha

And some of these guys who are shorting might not realize that we are still in no man's land, so the odds are not exactly in their favor to be shorting.. including that when we go through no man's land, yeah maybe we could get various corrections, but they are likely not going to be meaningful, and even if we make it through no man's land, there are limitations to the corrections that are available, and sure they might happen, but it is better to probably go with the trend rather than against it and perhaps start to think more seriously about shorts once we get into the $140k to $180k territory.. whether that is within a few weeks or a few months.. .. but yeah, they get anxious and they don't want to wait that long... and they want to gamble.. and so yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't.. I am leaning towards the won't side.. at least until we get a bit above $120k.

Even the dumps/dips are short lived and quite pathetic at the moment. Halving getting close, these Spot ETFs are really doing wonders for the price. Just wait for the supply shock post halving.

Maybe this time really is different and we are going to go seriously parabolic.

Maybe?

I am still thinking that it is pretty much the same.. 3 ups and a down, and so we will just look at how high it goes as we go and at some point it is likely to become unsustainable and we will need a lengthy correction.. but this time with BIGGER players engaged in some of the shenanigans and/or rug pulls or whatever other dramatic news ends up playing out.. when the longer term correction finally comes, and yeah, maybe the longer term correction does not end up going below $120k-ish.. who knows?  It partly depends upon where the top ends up being and how long it might take to get there.. whether it is a medium top in the $240 to $540 range.. or maybe it ends up slightly more bullish in the $540k to $1 million territory or maybe if it gets into the most extreme of the scenarios into the $1 million or more territories, then you know we gotta get some crashing back down from those kinds of price points... especially if it goes up too quickly at some point.. maybe even crashing back down 70% or more from the top to sub $500ks. to sub $300ks or even lower.. which also partially depends on where the top ends up being and how we ended up getting to such top.. in terms of both time and if there might have been some shenanigans on the way up. as well as shenanigans on the way down.. and if we are dealing with money, there are always going to be shenanigans.

I am starting to think $120k to $180k for 2024 - based on currently known dynamics and trends from ongoing ETF demand coupled with the halvening. (which is 2x to 3x) from $60k

Thus perhaps another 2x to 3x from the 2024 numbers for 2025 based on sheer momentum that has historically tended to go along with the cycles - which gives us $240k to $540k for 2025



Am I going too far?

I know my personal finances don't really rely on such or even give too many shits, but it is kind of difficult to ignore the outrageously limitations in supply in light of our current happenings.

Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... .. so I hate to pin myself down too much, even in what I had been describing what seems to be a kind of base case based on current circumstances and knowns... and I am not buying more BTC.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too... and who knows how many coins we are going to be releasing along the way. .some of us are gong to be releasing our coins, and I already pretty much have my release schedule already outlined . which does not even end up being very many coins sold.. but still lots of ongoing improvement in the needs to spend more..

~snip
Oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Now we are talking about which shitcoin happens to be less shitty.

Give me a break.   Roll Eyes

https://twitter.com/WholesomeMeme/status/1767748675550220597

Ok.   Hint taken.  I will have to go look for my duck suit equivalent.
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March 13, 2024, 06:01:15 AM


Explanation
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March 13, 2024, 06:04:02 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

[...]
Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... ..

It is already very visually happening on the blockchain:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/

I am not buying more BTC

HFSP

.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too

You got multiple? Damn. Withdrawing the above comment, congrats.
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March 13, 2024, 06:51:44 AM
Last edit: March 13, 2024, 07:03:28 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by bitebits (1)

[...]
Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... ..
It is already very visually happening on the blockchain:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/
I am not buying more BTC
HFSP
.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too
You got multiple? Damn. Withdrawing the above comment, congrats.

I probably was overstating my position, and to attempt to explain, since 2015, I largely had assessed myself to have had been in a state of over-accumulation, which allowed me to feel comfortable selling coins without worrying about whether I had enough, yet part of my ongoing problem had been that much of the time I kept the money available for rebuying coins, so largely I had been of the position that I had no treally been injecting new money into bitcoin since 2015 - even though the records are not really clear about whether new money had been coming in, and many times, it is my impression that I have not been injecting new money into my investment, but then in late 2022, my cash reserves had gotten so low that I did end up injecting more money into my cash reserves that were authorized for bitcoin sales.. - especially during that period in which the BTC price was below $20k for several months, yet at the same time when the BTC price returned in to the upper $20k and then even more assurance after October 2023 that our November 2022 bottom of $15,479 was in.. There was going to be no more bottom, so there could be some assurance to pull out the extra money that had gotten inserted into the system on a seemingly temporary emergency basis.

So technically there is still buying with money that is already in the system. .and that would be how it should be preferred, and my net selling of BTC should be greater than my net buying of BTC - even though several run throughs of my sustainable withdrawal system, as shown through bitmover's rendition of it, shows a kind of back testing through the simulation tool that even really aggressive levels of BTC withdrawal is likely going to end up with the dollar values continuing to grow, especially if we measure BTC's value from the 200-WMA.. and that even works through back testing of more recent periods especially something spanning over the last 5 years and a 30% per year withdrawal rate. I could not even come close to those levels of withdrawal which is largely showing that my withdrawal rate that is much smaller than even the more conservative levels... and I have been more into following the rake tool instead of the above linked monthly sustainable withdrawal tool.

Oh, and yeah, thanks for pointing out the glassnode data, and surely we have ideas how people act in theory and maybe sometimes we can see what they are doing in terms of the data that is available, so surely if a lot of guys start to release their coins between $73k and $120k I would be very surprised if enough coins were to be released in order to keep up with the seemingly increased demand that is coming through current BTC spot ETF inflows and the additional ETF inflows that are expected to continue to increase through 2024 and 2025  - and yeah, we could end up being surprised if such BTC spot ETF inflows do not continue to increase and put demand on BTC, so in some sense, we cannot necessarily take the inflows for granted... or even take for granted regarding how many current BTC HODLers are going to be willing to take some or all of their coins out of cold storage in order to sell to Blackrock, et al.
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March 13, 2024, 07:03:20 AM


Explanation
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March 13, 2024, 07:13:40 AM

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy
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March 13, 2024, 07:19:20 AM
Last edit: March 13, 2024, 07:42:22 AM by fillippone
Merited by El duderino_ (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), lightfoot (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Observing 73,127@Stamp




New ATH

Wen is chopper?
Wen  grim reaper?

CCMF




Old image with close enough number.

Not exact number, sorry
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March 13, 2024, 07:42:03 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

$73,185 observed    Cool   

another record day of inflows....14.7k

there seems to be some demand
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March 13, 2024, 08:01:13 AM


Explanation
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March 13, 2024, 08:11:03 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

So the heavenly hodlsleep did stamp an ATH on the boards
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March 13, 2024, 08:12:44 AM

Goodmorning to another ATH! Kiss
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March 13, 2024, 08:25:44 AM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)

Goodmorning to another ATH! Kiss

Getting ready for the morning WOD
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March 13, 2024, 08:55:11 AM

Well that really was a fine sleep hodl. And a fine waking hodl. Bitcoin - the gift that keeps on giving (even if it was a gift to myself).

I'm also really loving seeing what Saylor is doing with MSTR and surely it's only a matter of time before others start to follow his playbook. Pioneering the route towards de-dollarization.
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March 13, 2024, 09:03:23 AM


Explanation
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March 13, 2024, 09:37:39 AM

Woke up to pee. New high  maybe we do another as I am going back to bed.

El duderino_


you got your wish bro nice
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March 13, 2024, 09:57:11 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

401k is worth around $750k.. so then that would generate about $3k per income per month in terms of a 4% withdrawal rate.
More like $2.5k/mo, actually.



Fixing the numbers
There's no party going on
I'm no party poop





#haiku
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March 13, 2024, 10:01:13 AM

So the heavenly hodlsleep did stamp an ATH on the boards

The Bitcoin Genie never lies.

The Dude would enjoy.
An overnight ATH…

Increasing while sleeping.
Sounds heavenly.


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