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9281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip, and HODL! on: November 07, 2020, 03:12:09 AM
With bitcoin it is quite hard to calculate the dip, because the price will change every minute. When we predict the market to fall to $13000 and make a buy order. It gets executed by $13000, and soon after when we try to sell for $13200 the market drops even low. This is what it is must to have better understanding and make buying and selling else we need the ability to bear the loss.
I think it is not about ability to bear the losses, it is about the ability to understand the price action and market structure. Buying at the dips are not always the good strategy, it is really depends on what kind of trader are you. I'm more on momentum trades so I only buying when the prices are breaking out and exiting if there will be a weakness. Buying at the dips are most likely for the swing traders who have guts to buy when the market is fear. It can be called as good strategy but the thing is it should be done with proper risk management. Your ability to bear huge losses will lose its value if you do not habe good eisk management skills. HOLD is not for everyone, trading is not also for everyone. Choose a strategy that is fitted with your skills and characteristics.

Strategy of buying all the time on a regular basis works really well, so long as you have had a long investment time horizon of 4 or more years...

So, just continue buying, and then you do not have to worry about the many things that you list, TitanGEL... The only thing to worry about is merely getting your financial situation in order so that you are not buying more than you can afford to lose.. so that you do not get worried if the BTC price goes up or down. and surely if there happens to be some kind of BTC price dip, then just having a bit of extra cash on the side to buy more... and HODL through the matter, if you run out of cash.. which can take a while to get into profitability, and so far in bitcoin's history, no one has lost any money as long as they have been able to hold at least 4 years (which should also include some amounts of continued and prudent buying along the way, too).... but if you keep buying, then whatever you buy has at least a 4 year time frame before getting worried about whether that purchase was profitable or not.

With bitcoin it is quite hard to calculate the dip, because the price will change every minute. When we predict the market to fall to $13000 and make a buy order. It gets executed by $13000, and soon after when we try to sell for $13200 the market drops even low. This is what it is must to have better understanding and make buying and selling else we need the ability to bear the loss.

So for 13k there was a good resistance level so any fall below could be a good buy as it will bounce back and you can make some good profits if you are a day trader. Many would be making some short-term profits now with the daily some swing in the markets, and this market is more good for speculators if get the right direction.

Huh?  You seem to be lost... eg. in the wrong thread, reliable.  No one, here, is suggesting to fuck around with trying to stack more sats by selling.. but instead focusing on buying and HODLing.. as the title of the thread says..  Go figure.
9282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2020, 02:55:50 AM
I should've known better than to chime in to that discussion. Politics is too divisive.
I'll try to keep it to bitcoin as much as I can help it.  Smiley

Surely, you are not the ONLY one devolving into politics.. been a long time divergence here, even though I would also prefer to stick to talking about bitcoin.. sometimes, though, just cannot help it, when other members are presenting such issues and some of them even reasonably believe that there is some kind of connection with bitcoin...

I am thinking:  "This too shall pass."   In other words, we just seem to be going through a kind of moment in which a lot of people are thinking and talking about such political topic... Hot topic, and hopefully soon NOT to be so hot, amiNOTrite?   Probably there is going to be some other HOT ..... political topic in the near future.. cannot completely avoid it.

If the time is not right for trains and rockets, one must post something.  Or so it seems.

Fair enough...

And better than pumping some nonsense shitcoin... how about HEX?Huh... I have been getting a lot of spam e-mails about that nonsense, recently... for some strange reason...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2020, 02:44:18 AM
I should've known better than to chime in to that discussion. Politics is too divisive.
I'll try to keep it to bitcoin as much as I can help it.  Smiley

Surely, you are not the ONLY one devolving into politics..

It's been a long time divergence practice here (you know as well as me), even though I would also prefer to stick to talking about bitcoin..

Sometimes, though, peeps just cannot help but to bring up the topic and other peeps cannot help but to respond when other members are presenting such topic of the day issues and some of those members even reasonably believe that there is some kind of connection with bitcoin... sometimes there is...

I am thinking:  "This too shall pass."  

In other words, we just seem to be going through a kind of moment in which a lot of people are thinking and talking about such red headed political topic... Hot topic, yes, and hopefully soon NOT to be so hot, amiNOTrite?  

On the other hand, probably there is going to be some other HOT/political topic in the near future.. cannot completely write it off, seems to me.
9284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2020, 01:19:10 AM
For some strange reason, Bossian has not been very active in recent times.

He owes me 0.05BTC if (when really) we reach a new ATH before 1st January 2022.
He probably won’t return!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205829.msg53223585#msg53223585

Lauda already gave him red trust, before she exited, herself.

Personally, LFC, I would not be giving him (Bossian) any kind of out...

His feet need to be held to the fire... that fucktwat.
9285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2020, 12:45:40 AM
The fun part: if the Trump camp is indeed able to uncover a load of mail voting fraud  Roll Eyes

Not gonna happen... You cannot uncover some thing that is a fantasy, unless you plant such evidence.. or just make the shit up out of pie in the sky wishful thinking, which seems to be a lot of what has been happening in Trump's framing of such non-existing issue...

It's like the Ethereum folks making believe that they have an actual decentralized coin... Sounds good in theory.. but really there is hardly any evidence for such a phenomena in the wild.

Fraud in voting in the USA does not take place on the micro-level, it is more of a macro-problema... to the extent that such macro-level problems are investigated... or have tools in place to investigate... take voting machines for example, they have been designed in such a way that they cannot be audited.. get real.. They have a similar design as an ATM, but would any half-way intelligent ATM owner/operator choose to run an ATM that could not be audited?  We should be considering the extent to which fraud is taking place, and it is not regular Joes committing fraud... as much as fantasy thinkers would wish such to be the case.
9286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 09:21:29 PM

This is one of those pinch me if I'm awake moments. After so much suffering throughout the last 3 years, the price hit $16K during the night. Currently it is stabilizing around $15.6K, which is better than going straight to $17K. On a more personal layer, I've contemplated for a year about a similar scenario. Don't judge me, but I've sold 1.6% of my stash for the first time after the 2017 crash.

The reasons are multiple. First, I'd drained both my credit cards to buy in $3K area in 2018. Second, I'd taken a loan to buy in March increasing my stash by 5%. I was too confident that $7K was a good price and the covid pandemic wouldn't affect the price. Hours later the price fell below $4K. So I basically was in mindrust's situation. But I decided to wait to see what will happen in 1 year. Now I have >3x profit from my loans.

I look upon this more like a variation of a long position with borrowed funds from the bank, but a hodler style. I'm not a trader, and never will be. In the mean time several devices went almost out of order and wait in line for a replacement - my phone, tablet, washing machine and tv. There are always expenses for the car as well. So my decision is completely justified and I am feeling good about it. This is a small reward for all the nerves and stress for both me and my father. Now he is shocked in a good way that all my predictions for the price shooting upward were correct. And he is congratulating me for the nerves and cold blooded hodling.

And finally, currently the fiat equivalent is more than enough for the main goal which I set for myself in 2017. In terms of fiat the difference is more than 5x. What will happen in 2021 is another story. I expect some remarkable highs which will tempt me to cash out and quit my job. Hopefully, I will keep most of my stash and sell only what I really need. I really love my job, but sometimes it is ridiculous to dress up, drive to work, check the price and see that during the drive I've earned the equivalent of my salary for many years of work. Not a great stimulus for work, but I don't complain Smiley

I will quibble with your assertion of your own entering a mindrust moment - even though I can appreciate what you are suggesting about being in a similar "overleveraged" position and playing it in a non-cracking way, as opposed to mindrust's now emblematic cracking way.

In other words, well played sir! 

Sounds like you were in a bit of a tense situation, and that you had gambled a bit much in a way that ended up paying off decently well - use of leverage, which is usually NOT recommended (but if so, to attempt to accomplish, sparingly), and better to lock those gains (in order to pay off the debt that you incurred instead of gambling on UP that might end up petering out.. NOT saying that such UPpity is going to peter out, but many of us recognize that it is NOT good to risk your luck too much and don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

We aren’t due to hit $20k in 2020.  If we do, we are ahead of schedule.  Next year more likely.



Welcome back, Hairy dee party poop wannabe.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Sure, even though we are not scheduled to hit $20k for this here calendar year, surely any of us can appreciate that such ATH vicinity numero is surely within fair strikening distancia, given some of the macro dynamics of the current times....

In udder wooords, should not be a total slave to the 4-year fractal, smacktal!!!!   Angry Angry  #nohomo.
9287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 07:31:41 PM
Trump’s strategy to avoid voting by mail may have cost him enough Republican votes to lose this one.

Who knows exactly the balance of whether taking such extreme stances cost Republican votes or inspire democrat votes.. and in the end, the same results in which the democrat votes outnumber the republican votes in the key battle states that cause the tipping of the electoral college towards the democrats and against the republicans.  

In other words, overall, Trump did seem to receive a large number of votes.  Lots of muricans don't seem to mind sabotaging of the postal service and some other strange actions, including publicly proclaiming that votes should not be counted and other unappealing kinds of ideas..

He also said a lot of stupid stuff in regards to the virus not existing and failing to take responsibility for the inadequacy of his herd immunity strategy, but lots of muricans did not seem to mind that either.. I mean, he still got a lot of votes despite such seemingly retarded ideas.
9288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 06:51:01 PM
Need to remind myself, I do not need a Lambo.




Just remember...there is a 'mysterious' never much mentioned 'magic' to Bitcoin...the more you have in HODL mode..the more 'lucky'  you are to the oppisite sex and any

friends or relations there of. I mean, why could that be?

As a further example of such 'wierdness' say you have 1,000 BTC and you went home with your 19 year old girlfriend (like everyone has at my age of 65 years) and meet

her father and asked for marriage. For some reason, when the 'retired in BTC/Crypto comes up' and also the 'topic' of marriage comes up...even the Father..seems to

regard you in more favor..then you would expect. All due to the 'mystery' of the 'obvious' and 'magical properties' of Bitcoin. It is a mystery indeed! Likely, never

to be solved in my lifetime, but on the other hand, my fiance seems to be trying to F*ck me to death, but I'm sure I'm imagining things. Smiley

Brad


WTF do you need a 19 year old for?
I am 63 I will be 64 in 2-3 months.

You could give me every coin back I ever handled in my profile wallet.

I think it is about 400 btc which is now over six million.

I would not be looking for a 19 year old.

You have to live.  I mean you have expenses.  You cannot measure the mere fact that BTC has passed through your wallet as if you had any kind of reasonable and/or prudent ability to hold onto such BTC and to have been able to have lived a reasonable and respectful life.

Let's say that I could have been a multi-millionaire by the time that I was in my early 30s because I had millions of dollars pass through me.. but I happened to have spent the vast majority of such monies, just to live and some of the money passing through me had been to pay expenses in order to have been able to have earned such gross income.

What would have I done?  Lived with other peeps and had them pay for all my expenses.. How long could that work?  Not very long for normies who are not born with any kind of silver spoon in their mouths.  

Anyhow, my point about BTC passing through your wallet does not mean shit, and it even means less than shit if you have a business that involves earning in BTC.. Now if you have a business that earns dollars and you purchase BTC with those dollars, then it might be a bit more meaningful to expect that a higher percentage of the BTC that pass through your wallet would be within your reasonable and prudent ability to retain for the longer term.

Hey oh, WO!  Grin
Let me avoid to comment on what's happening price-wise. I will speak only after 20K

Do you promise no speaking?    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Anyway, here's who's making money, tons of money thanks to the yellow friend
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/83748/square-earnings-q3-cash-app-bitcoin

I have heard of "orange" friend and I feel as if I know "orange" friend decently well, but as far as I know, I never have known a "yellow" friend, so far.

What is such mysterious, "yellow friend"?

Would it be to my advantage to be introduced or to become acquainted?

Hey oh, WO!  Grin
Let me avoid to comment on what's happening price-wise. I will speak only after 20K

Anyway, here's who's making money, tons of money thanks to the yellow friend
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/83748/square-earnings-q3-cash-app-bitcoin

It's like as if PayPal, square, robinhood, gemini, gbtc, bakkt, China, Russia, Europe, coinbase are all competing  for some kind of limited supply of an asset that's already 12% into the next halfening, after which the whole world will compete for BTC450 mined daily. Huh who could've predicted such price swings

Yep... exactamente!!!!  Go figure.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 06:35:25 PM
Classic WO moment of Bear Ownership in 2020:

By using the Elliott Waves theory



For some strange reason, Bossian has not been very active in recent times.

Maybe he is not feeling so confident about his previous nonsense theories?  Not that he likely had believed such crap that he had been posting, previously, even though he placed bets (or was it just one bet?) that he is most likely NOT to pay.. but hey.. place a one-way bet, and collect upon such longshot bet if you win on the longshot, otherwise disaparecerse.
9290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 06:24:33 PM
Does he not realize that counting ballots actually takes time?

... I've always wondered why in all the democratic world it is only Democrat inner-city US counties that take forever to count their vote?

... they have more people so should be able to count faster ... or? are they stupider? why do they always delay their vote count? do you not find that strange?

Nope.  I don't find that strange. 

Inner cities tend to have more people who lean democratic because they tend to be of traditionally underrepresented groups - and accordingly conclude that there could be a purpose for government in their interest to protect them from some of the extremes of rich-person focused politics that tend to be the direction of republican representatives.

Furthermore, republicans tend to target these kinds of inner-city areas in a variety of ways to cause more encumbrances on them - not only in terms of attempting to suppress the vote, but also in terms of causing more and more difficult to actually count votes that had actually been cast. 

The myth of corruption in counting votes tends to be overplayed, and there have been a lot of evidence that corruption in vote counting tends to come from black box voting dynamics from the various inauditable machines and things like that, and maybe in recent times there has been some more attempts to cause more audit-ability, by causing those counts to be more accountable to actual votes.

Greg Palast (and sure, there are others, too) has been investing the various forms of black box cheating dynamics since at least around the 2000 election time-frame.


the question asked now is the vote result gonna effect bitcoin price or not , we all see that the price moved up due the vote but what if trump lost ? hmm

Chances are that the Democrats will be printing out much more dollars during a Biden presidency than a Trump one. From that perspective, it could just make things even more attractive for cryptos as an alternative store of value...

If you had not noticed a pattern that has gone on since about the time that Clinton (Bill) got into office.  There had been gross overspending and sending of moneys to republican buddies (kind of trickle down aspirations) then when the democrat gets into office, there are pushes towards tightening up the belt.. so then by the time the next republican gets back in, then they can go crazy again... that happened for clinton and for obama and likely to happen for biden, too..  Sure, democrats have tended to get beat up by republicans so many times because they tend to try to play nice.. and republicans tend to take advantage of such niceness and engage in ruthlessness irresponsibility when they are in power...  and surely how does all the craziness end with more and more craziness in the money printing arena.. and perhaps this time, the democrats will try to continue with printing of money --- which seems irresponsible at this time, but the available solutions do not look good - especially when there is a likely a need to bring back production to the USA in a variety of ways, which could be helpful if it could actually happen.. but I have my doubts, too..

Bitcoin seems to be responding well to Trump losing. Probably bc Trump openly stated he wasnt a fan and it was backed by nothing and that he told his Treasury Secretary to "go after Bitcoin."

Also his top economic advisor Larry Kudlow dislikes Bitcoin. I believe the market is signaling that Biden will be friendlier to our Lord and Savior King Bitcoin.

Also it seems to be bullish for assets when the media is too preoccupied with Trump being a sore loser to promote their coronasniffles hype and try to scare everyone non stop about a disease not much deadlier than the flu.

Actually, it is likely that the potential policies of Trump (to the extent that you could refer to them as policies) would be more friendly to bitcoin, but the fact of the matter seems to be that bitcoin does not give any shits about the president, including whether a Biden administration (to the extent that he is lucid at all) might be more hostile to bitcoin than the red headed self-absorbed twat... by the way, Lambie.. you would likely get along better with Trump, no?   Both of you seem to have strong exaggeration inclinations, no?
9291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 05:36:56 PM
$15.5k USD/BTC breached. Yeah, riding this fucking wave, yo.
Will reconsider depending on how quickly we hit $16k.
YOLO.
$15.551 achieved! Grin
snip
Watching on BBC news and they mentioned about the release of silk road bitcoin. Lips sealed
Yet no movement from Trumpster from the white house yet but the tweets are in all caps so you know he is mad. Cheesy
snip
snip

It all depends on Georgia now to find out when he goes dark for the next 3 months left of his term.
Thought it would be Arizona and Nevada to do it for Ol' man Biden. Grin

If only he could step away from himself and see just how stupidly childish he is behaving. Does he not realize that counting ballots actually takes time? Seriously, how does this guy even tie his shoes?

It is quite surprising that so many people vote for such a narcissistic self-absorbed dweeb, especially when his main duties would be to represent people and the public interest, which he seems totally incapable of carrying out such duties.  I suspect that there has been a decent amount of regular peeps who believe that it is in the public interest to diminish or destroy government, and for some reason, they believe that trump's self absorption actually ends up accomplishing their objectives.. Seems like a lack of actual introspection from a lot of normies to actually believe such a corrupt (and unwilling (more likely unable) to focus on anything beyond his own interests) person (referring to trump) actually is good for either the country or for the serving of their own interests.

the question asked now is the vote result gonna effect bitcoin price or not , we all see that the price moved up due the vote but what if trump lost ? hmm

Edit:  whoops, I got ahead of myself, and responding to your post below this one

Price goes up.  Price goes down.

Sure, we could continue going up.. Has happened many times; however, any of us should not be surprised by some kind of significant correction at some point, and the mere fact that such correction happens to coincide with some worldly events, so fucking what... does not mean that they are related exactly, even though they are happening at the same time.

We have not had any kind of meaningful correction since around early September and that was when we were dipping into the four digits.

I personally had been expecting some resistance after $13,880 (our previous local high) and then additional resistance in the sub $17,250 arena.. which would have been one of our bounce highs from December 2017.. but also significantly sub $17,250 would be within a certain reasonable percentage of our ATH --- 15% or so... which would represent entering into no man's zone.. or whatever proper name for such price area around previous ATH...
9292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 04:32:56 PM

@Toxic: what's in the box?

pain...for fiat hodlers

#dyor


Volume is not the as in the past but i think we dont need lot of volume as longs as there is FOMO  Shocked Wink

I have been kind of wonder too, if there may have been some movement of BTC price discovery from exchanges to OTC type avenues, especially if we have BIG institutions such as Square and Grayscale sucking up a lot of the coin supply.  From where are they getting their coins.  

I believe that Saylor had admitted getting a decent amount of his coins from various exchanges, but he did not really detail with any precision his sources of his BTC and/or exactly his methodology - even though he disclosed that he (likely involving some agents) had made 10s of thousands of BTC buying transactions over a relatively short period of time prior to October of this year..

Actually not even sure about when he started acquiring coins, exactly, but based on his purchase price disclosures and some other of the details that he disclosed, it seems to be that he likely had some somewhat clustered purchasing activities of BTC at least three times in the months of July (his own stash) August (his first acquisition of MSTR coins), September (his second acquisition of MSTR coins).

In any event, changes in on-exchange trade volume might not always give great indications regarding ongoing measure of sentiment, which seems to be part of what you are suggesting, hossamdz.

Almost 2k up in one day, did we ever had that?

Yes, 2019  26 June

October 25, 2019 we had nearly $3k in less than 24 hours from $7,400 to $10,300.  I used to remember (seemingly incorrectly) that we had accomplished that BTC price move in a bit over 12 hours, but when go back and look at the one minute charts it seems that my memory is not what the historical charts are showing.

See this link to play around with the timeline:

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig1-minzczsg2019-10-25zeg2019-10-26ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv



By the way, as many of you more astute Wall Observers may recall, we shot up from $7,400 to $10,300 in less than 24 hours  on October 25, but then we trickled back down to $7,400 and even below $7,400 in the next month.. and then had a kind of mini-bear (feeling at the time) BTC consolidation in the upper $6ks/lower $7ks for a bit more than a month before entering into a beginning of 2020 mini-rally for a bit over a month.. to peak above $10k again before experiencing our movement into our March 12 rapid crash.  

Almost 2k up in one day, did we ever had that?

Yes, 2019  26 June

Once almost 3K not?

Yes... see above.
9293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 04:13:39 PM
Expect military trucks to drive into the justice department shortly before Trump leaves office.

Expect Trump to walk away a very rich man.

The strangest prediction.

I have a better one:
1. with Senate ostensibly remaining republican (most likely) and Supreme court decidedly conservative, republican "masses" won't care too much and WS is ecstatic (no new taxes, etc.).
2. Trump might try a comeback in 2024. It worked out for Grover Cleveland, so there is a precedent.

Trump is no whipper snapper, so he may well be dead, or near dead in 2024... but would not put it past him to attempt some drama, even in his more elderly years... absent the various criminal charges that he is likely going to have to battle in the coming years because I doubt that democrats - or even regular peeps are going to be tolerant of the various ways that he abused his power in terms of financials and other eccentricities that go beyond the pale of the regular corrupt politicians in the USA.  There may be some allowance to sweep his extremes under the rug - but really would likely not be in the best interest of the country to allow him to get away with his various narcisistic and likely non-productive self-dealings and reckless with the public finances interminglings.
9294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 05:28:47 AM
Sir, yes sir.

I like to believe the same and don't want to see 4 digits ever again but you never know.  Roll Eyes

Huh?  You must have learned your lesson from your March 2019 call that the "bottom was in?"  Or more accurately your assertion that we might not see sub $3,900 BTC ever again.

Hey, you were almost correct about that one.. very close.. that's for sure.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Ah sorry I'm late. Bit of turbulence. Hitting my car. Roll Eyes

https://www.motor1.com/news/452128/flying-car-video-real/


Call me a pussy.

I would be scared as fuck to fly in that thing.
9295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 05:21:15 AM


Why am I feeling it coming?  Cry


Because you are a negative nancy... that's why.    Tongue Tongue

Chill.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I haven't made a huge research about the price. I just don't want to happen what happened back in 2017. Try convincing people to believe in bitcoin after that.

2017 was a good year.

Actually if you look from about October 2015 to December 2017... it was a good period of time in which BTC prices appreciated in the 28x to 78x arena.. depending upon how you count it.... NOT bad.. that's for sure.
9296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2020, 04:30:55 AM
Happy Thursday JJG... #nohomo

Thanks for the well wishes, JSRAW... It's been a lovely day.. including in corn activities.

Did have to go back through my order books a bit today, a couple of times... so much UPpity action, and so many sales without buys.... My last buys were around September 3, when we dipped to the four digits.  Remember that?

It may start to be safe to proclaim that the bottom is in, right?  also we might even go so far as to proclaim that four digits are never to be experienced again... perhaps?  Perhaps?

In any event going up from $3,850 in mid-March has been a lot less stressful than going down... whichever DOWNity that we might have chosen to consider during the past nearly 3 years.  Was filled with opportunities to get more coins along the way... for sure..
9297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2020, 06:04:46 AM
If price of btc was to be based on 2017 dec profit levels for a miner we would be at 78k

We are not in 2017.. we are still in late 2016...   What would the numbers be for late 2016... not sure, which month, but let's say about December 2016...

We reach 2017 when we breach the old ATH. that is $19,666...

We have not even come close to that, yet... but we did breach the June 2019 high.. so there is something in that.

Regarding mining.. seems like a death spiral going on... we got a 16% reduction a few days ago, and mining hashrate is still dropping and targeting another 14% drop, or so?  Go figure.
9298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 05, 2020, 04:59:40 AM
technology adoption always follows a s-curve. the beginning is flat, then it becomes exponential (looks like a hockey stick) and when mass adoption occurs it shoots straight up and only starts flattening when saturated (widely adopted).


when the new tech is money the graph not only shows the adoption of users but also the value of the money.

when rockets are fired up to reach space they need to carry enough energy to overcome earths gravity. they need to acquire escape velocity.  if they don't get over this threshold they could not leave earth.

bitcoin expands in short violent run-ups followed by years of loss of value and consolidation. this circular pattern conditions bitcoin hodlers to feel bad about "not selling at the top" in order to own a lot of cash and furthermore to later buy back more bitcoin, when price reached the bottom of the cycle.

especially when reaching "life changing" or "fuck you" amounts of money. especially when the hodler realizes that he/she could have escaped the rat race with that amount of fiat. since the bear markets are usually multi year, the hodler has plenty of time to develop this regret.

it feels bad to look back to previous all-time highs and punching the numbers in a calculator and figuring out how many btc one could have bought if and only if...      but be aware that there is another feeling that is even worse: having sold to early. remember all the posts in this forum where folks argued about how rational it was to take profits and sell btc for $20. or $200 or $2000

during one of the next giant run-ups bitcoin will reach escape velocity. which means the old game of multiyear bears will not occur anymore. bitcoin will enter the steep upward phase of the s-curve.

don't be a multiyear hardened btc hodler that finally learned how to sell at an anticipated local top only to see the price never coming back. develop a strategy to avoid this worst possible outcome: a bitcoin hodler with zero bitcoin in that moment of history when bitcoin is winning. with strategy I don't mean some weird trading strategy. trading btc is a losing game for 99% of players.


the only way to make sure you always have some bitcoin is to always keep some/most bitcoin.


my own strategy is very simple: when bitcoin reaches escape velocity I want to still own at least 50% of my stash. in my mind half my stash is reserved for my descendants. they are in Uber-cold storage. I will never touch them. I will never punch them in any calculator to figure out momentary fiat value.

with the other half I may or may not try to play the "sell at top" game. not convinced yet since all I would get for my precious btc is lots of melting dirty fiat. problem is that this is the only way ever for me to acquire more btc.  maybe I should only play that game with a quarter of my stash.

what is your plan?


edited

Of course, I don't know your situation with any kind of precision, but you could still be quite well off without even selling close to 50 % of your BTC stash... Just cash out BTC from time to time whenever you might need it, and I suppose it is better if you do not have highfalutin tastes.    

I maintain a spreadsheet that I adjust from time to time based on price movements and changes to the actual quantities of my BTC stash.  Sure of course, I had to make some BIGGER adjustments to the projections based on some incidental and unintended losing of BTC along the way... but still, even my projection out to nearly 1.5 million still shows that under my current tentative plan, I would still retain nearly 82% of the quantity of BTC that I hold today... and that is kind of presuming that the BTC price shoots straight up.. which, it likely will not.  

Sure, it also presumes that I won't lose anymore which is not exactly a sure thing or that I won't shave some extra BTC off the top along the way - but even from the numbers that I am showing, I don't really see any need to be shaving extra off the top... but maybe I just have to learn to live richer and blow some BTC on higher level luxury goods.  

I think that the point that I am making is that there does not seem to be needs to sell high quantity of BTC in order to live quite well and that should be especially true with BTC HODLers that have been in the game longer and especially true if BTC does anything close to its earlier escape velocity performances.. ONLY needs to be a fraction and still cause a lot of longer term HODLers to become quite richie without any major needs to cash out large portions of their BTC stashes... my thinkening..


what is your plan?
I have little btc so I allocate a monthly amount to increase my stash no matter how high or low the price is

Of course, if you have not been into BTC for very long, then it takes longer to build the stash... So you have to keep building your stash, and then at some point you will likely realize that your stash has been built enough.
9299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 03, 2020, 03:09:51 AM
Let me share a curios and a little unpleasant story. In my country, a large part of the population ID's expires this year. The government has decided to extend this period by another year due to the covid crisis and to avoid crowds. So far so good. But I started receiving letters from all crypto exchanges that my ID has expired. And now I have to write letters to the support, to explain myself to them to give me access to my accounts. I do not currently have access to any exchange and I have to wait days, probably weeks for this issue to be resovled. This sucks.

I was denied a credit card because my DL was expired, even though my passport was valid. What does driving have to do with credit??? My bitcoin wallet never expires.

I was denied entry to a bar once because my DL had expired. I was 29 at the time.

My ID application was (almost) denied once, because the medical certificate to confirm my blood type was older than 6 months. I asked the lady if she thought my blood type could have changed since the test was done. She stared at me for 15 seconds. Then she accepted my documents.

I speculate that she was looking at your eye colors (maybe getting tinglies too.. if she could see that you had a lil fiend secret contained therein), and then looking at your ID... and since your eye color had not changed, therefore, probably your blood type had not changed, either... Go figure.



Missing 2016 - which is the four-year fractal comparison year...

Go figure?
9300  Other / Meta / Re: How many hours are you in the forum daily? on: November 03, 2020, 02:57:25 AM
Total time logged in: 64 days, 5 hours and 42 minutes.

Date Registered:   May 06, 2013, 11:53:16 PM

Not very active over the last ~2 years.

You better get ur lil selfie MOAR active!!!!!!!


 Angry Angry Angry Angry
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