I like it.  It is interesting, and it helps to inform some potential suggestions.  The format also looks nice.

In order to test it out, I entered in the fuck you status number of coins for June 2019, and even if we were to employ the most aggressive withdrawal rate (of 30%), our dollar value of our coins continued to grow throughout the period, which goes to show that historically using any withdrawal rate within the tool would have resulted in both conservatism in regards to withdrawal and also an ongoing growth of the dollar value of the BTC, even if the BTC stash may have had ended up shrinking stupendously.

The fact that even the most maximum of withdrawal rates had not historically ended up with depletion of the BTC stash, it may well be better if the withdrawal percentage would increase to higher rates, maybe even all the way up to 100%, and for those higher rates we might want to call them intentional depletion rates, even though it could be possible that they still do not end up depleting the BTC stash in terms of ongoing increase in value.. depending on future BTC price movements and also depending on how much the 200-WMA continues to go up.  On the other hand, I do expect that BTC is going to experience a lot lower future BTC price (and 200-WMA) appreciation values (you can see that I have already accounted for much lower values in my Entry-level fuck you status chart - even though currently, it is looking too conservative), because there are most likely ceilings in BTC's addressable market.

Since past results do not translate into future results, I remain comfortable to keep with the seemingly conservative recommendations of the tool in regards to how the withdrawal rates are labeled... even though it seems that any withdrawal rate under 10% may well likely end up being considered ways to continue to grow your BTC investment holdings (in terms of dollar value of your holdings) in spite of engaging in ongoing withdrawal within the bounds of the tool.    

Maybe another punchline could be that historically in bitcoin, as long as we are using the 200-WMA as our BTC valuation, there may be no need to reach full fuck you status in order to pull the fuck you lever, and we might well be able to start to use BTC portfolio stash amounts far less than expected in order to get started with our living a fuck you status lifestyle.. but we still need to reach a certain number of BTC in order to make it practical to get started with such withdrawals, since it is likely that dollar debasement is going to continue and we are going to want to continue to ensure that we have a sufficient cushion - which is supposed to be part of the justification of the tool in terms of not depleting the principle of our BTC stash and being able to live off of BTC's ongoing price appreciation, without over doing it..  

Once we get to a status of being able to withdraw from our BTC stash, it should not matter in the negative that we end up having some extra cushion in the dollar value of our BTC holdings.  Of course, I am only referring to strict withdrawal rather than the extra steps that would be required for any guys who might be engaging in advance withdrawals that presume selling the BTC and potentially buying back months if the BTC spot price drops at least a couple of levels below the range in which they had ended up employing the advance withdrawals.

Suggestions:

For some reason I am a little discombobulated by the lack of separation in regards to the entrance of the current stash size versus the historically projected stack size.  So for example, when I enter 540 BTC which would have had been the fuck you status level for June 1, 2019, and if I indicate an annual withdrawal rate of 30%, the tool shows that currently, I still would have 174 BTC (which is more than 3x current fuck you status - see my entry-level fuck you status chart), and in such a scenario I would have had withdrawn $11.5 million over the past nearly 5 years.  Of course, right now if I only have 174 BTC remaining, then that would be my current amount in which I would consider how much do I want to (or that I am authorizing myself to) withdraw and I choose if I want to stick with the same rate of withdrawal or to employ a different rate.. of course in this case, I cannot go any higher since the tool maxes out at 30%.

It's almost like I would prefer to have the current period for projecting forward and the simulated past period to have their own input and output areas, even though that would lead to a certain level of redundancy - and maybe it would have to be on a separate page if the two concepts (or two calculators might potentially interfere with each other?).  It seems to me that the simulator portion of the tool is not engaging in withdrawals of months in advance or buying back months, so the simulation does not need to have the advance withdrawal portion of the tool when it is calculating how the numbers would have had played out historically.  

In other words, for the current portion, I know what is my current BTC stash size (which I might actually have that number of BTC or I might be imagining an amount of BTC that I want to put into the tool or I might want to use of fraction of the amount of BTC that I already have and put that amount of BTC into the tool).

For historical portion (and/or the simulation), if I was using the tool and engaging in historical withdrawal, if I want to end up with the same amount of BTC that I have now, then by definition, I would have had to have started with more BTC than now in order to still have the number of BTC that I have right now.  

It is not practical for me to apply my present stash to past withdrawals, even though sure I might want to see what the historical numbers look like for my present stash size, yet at the same time, if I hypothesize using my present BTC stash size for past withdrawals I know that with the use of this tool, I currently would not have as many BTC as I have right now, which seems to justify having redundant input areas and redundant output areas for the current projection forward and for the projection of past performance (or the simulation) based on how many BTC I might have had in the past or how many BTC I speculate myself to have had in the past.  

I am interested to hear what other guys have to say.  Does anyone understand it? or find it useful for anything in the ball park for what we might be trying to achieve here?  I know that there were a few guys who mentioned their desires to see how the tool would perform historically, so here is the chance for some of those guys to chime in.  Do "we" (royal that is) need to name any names or to ask directly to certain members in regards to the guys who said that they wanted some kind of historical rendition of the tool?

In late 2013, when I got into bitcoin MTGox was having freezes of withdrawals but it was still operating and people were sending money over there even after it had frozen withdrawals, yet I did not want to get involved in that craziness, but I did get involved with Localbitcoins, which made it easier to connect with individuals for peer to peer trades.

There was also Bitinstant, but it seems that Bitinstant was a bit before my time too.. but I recall the surprise of Charlie Shrem's arrest in January 2014.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Shrem

I am sensing that part of the difficulty comes from an inability to prove a negative, which contributes to the logic that non-ones coins are going to be replaced once they lose access to their private keys and/or are otherwise unable to figure out how to access their coins.

So ownership of BTC revolves around whether you have the private keys, and if you say that you don't have the private keys, there is no way to really verify that; however, we can verify that you have the private keys when you enter them and you access your BTC wallet.

In the end, it seems that the main solution would be making bitcoin more divisible, in the event that one satoshi starts to become too expensive and too impractical as the smallest unit, and so if a decent amount of private keys are lost and continue to get lost (which seems almost inevitable that keys are going to continue to get lost), then whichever coins are left might need to be subdivided further in the event that there are not enough coins to go around or their are not able to be used in the transaction of goods, services and/or other reasons for transacting value.

From what you are describing, you might need to lighten up the level of your physical exertion in some kind of way.

From this kind of physical exercise it seems that if we are doing the exercise vigorous enough to cause physical effects (and improvement on our bodies) we will experience some pain and discomfort, but not so much pain and discomfort that we are not able to continue to function in our usual ways.

You can lighten up your level of exertion by doing fewer pushups per set, by doing fewer sets, by spacing out your sets with a bit more time between them and/or maybe by modifying your pushups to do easier push-ups in order to build up to the more difficult forms.

I think it would be better if you can keep up some kind of daily routine that involves some kind of push-up or push-up substitute, rather than giving up..

I understand that it can be very painful to do pushups, and it has continue to be painful for me too, even though I keep improving.. but even I am sometimes making some modifications in order to account for the level of my tiredness, soreness and/or if I believe that my pushups are interfering with my abilities to do other things in my daily routine... Overall we should be becoming more physically powerful through our doing these pushups (which should also help our power in other ways, too - whether physical or even our appetite or our psychological well-being), even if during some of the short-term periods, we might be experiencing some pains and inconveniences.

Since you are talking about taking profits, you are likely not really engaging in long term investing, unless we are just quibbling over semantics.

So in your case, you are less than 2 years registered on the forum, so we might presume that you have around less than 2 years investing into bitcoin.  It could be possible that you are at a state that you have accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin to take risks to take profits at various price points that may well end up not being tops... so if we are still in the stage of our bitcoin investment journey, we have to be careful regarding selling too much too soon with expectations to buy back cheaper.. and unless you have over accumulated, it would be difficult to describe that as long-term investing rather than either trading and/or gambling. 

In the end, it is up to you to assess the extent to which you might have had overaccumulated BTC in such a way that you are justified to sell some, especially if you might still be trying to get more, which would seem to be harder to reach the conclusion that you have overaccumulated if you feel that you still do not have enough coin.


You don't have to be in bitcoin for more than 10 years to be able to reach a conclusion that you are able to shave off some profits without any expectation of buying back.

If you have reached a conclusion that you have enough BTC, then you could shave off some BTC at various points in time as the BTC price is going up and you can figure that you would have fewer and fewer BTC if the BTC price were to keep going up.. but part of the BIG question would be determining that you largely have enough (or more than enough) BTC in order to start to employ such a raking strategy, which I outline in this post.

Thanks for working on this, and figuring out a way to resume an orderly listing of these weighted top days for our lillie fiend, aka bitcoin.

Of course, my posts from the last couple of days show the raw data from the bitcoincharts.com website, yet I wonder why there is a discrepancy between your script-run data and the data that I had copy pasted from the raw data, namely the dates seem to be off-by-one day for the $62,116.68 and the $62,096.79?  Your script-run data shows 2/28 and 2/29 respectively, while the raw data shows 2/29 and 3/1 for those two weighted price results.


Of course, you can choose that a charity receive any donations rather than you (and talkim.com is doing a great service for the forum).  That's your choice.

If you were to choose to directly receive some donations, you could also communicate any BTC or lightning address privately through DMs and that would likely be acceptable in the case that you are preferring to maintain some privacy..

We know that sometimes there can be problems with reusing bitcoin addresses, too, which brings some additional value in terms of receiving bitcoin or something related in private and/or individualized ways rather than publicizing a bitcoin receiving address.... saving fees with lighting network too, and some of us guys like to experiment with sending BTC too, so I would not even consider it greedy to receive several hundreds of thousands of satoshis and even into the millions of satoshis that are up to the members to choose how much to send or to otherwise interact with you about ways of receiving.

On a few occasions, I have refused to receive payments from other members, and there were also times that funds were sent to my forum BTC addresses that seemed like dust payments.. so in that sense I can see why you might have some reluctancies in wanting to receive payments from other members, even if some of them may want to legitimately pay you because we feel benefits from the work that you might end up doing that benefits all of us and perhaps future generations in some way.. not to be too grandiose in my attempt to state the potential impact.

I don't have any problem with the idea in regards to talking about the advantages and disadvantages of holding and/or ways to potentially game the profitability of up and down BTC price moves - especially since the topic does have potential for exploring those kinds of angles.  Accordingly, I had not criticized your post for being off topic, but instead attempted to criticize your seeming presumption that trading in and out of positions would automatically be advantageous even if dollar profits might be assessed to have had taken place. 


Of course, if you do not have any other income and you are striving to get income from trading, then you might be in a bit of a pickle in terms of how to invest and/or set aside value in such a way that you are able to profit from the investment (in this case bitcoin) as an investment and also to be able to get the compounding value out of it that tends to come from abilities to hold it in the longer term rather than short term scalping of dollar value.



Of course, if someone does not have any other source of income, they have to generate income in some kind of way, and if their most profitable way to get income is by trading BTC and/or other kinds of trading, then that would be their circumstances and they still might need to assess the extent to which they are advantaging trading bitcoin as compared with other less pristine assets that they might trade.

I am not even proclaiming that anyone is able to invest into bitcoin or anything else unless they have some level of discretionary/disposable income.  So if someone does not have discretionary/disposable income, then they are not in a position to invest.  By the way, discretionary/disposable income is the extra income that is available after expenses are paid, so in other words, people who do not have discretionary/disposable income are not in a position to invest, and if those people are buying and selling bitcoin then they are gambling, trading and/or generating income and they are not investing... so investing still could come if they ended up generating more income than their expenses, so then if they have extra income that would be discretionary/disposable income that they could invest and/or use for extra consumption purposes

It would be their choice whether to invest with their extra income.. and part of the dilemma for the trader/gambler/someone generating income from trading is that they will frequently be tempted to use their extra income for trading purposes rather than investing with that extra income.. which could come back to bite them in the ass several years down the road when they might end up not having shit to show for all of the income that they generated through the years, but did not invest any of it but instead just traded with any extra income that passed through their hands.


I did not say anything is wrong for me.  I was attempting to describe the historical power of bitcoin as an investment and the likely continued ongoing power of bitcoin as an investment, and in the end, guys can do whatever they like, even though they might end up shooting themselves in the foot if they presume that there is value to take profits in dollars. 

Of course, as you mentioned, profits could also be taken in bitcoin, but if they put that bitcoin capital back to work and they are trading with it rather than setting it aside, then it would be much more difficult to consider any aspect of their bitcoin approach as an investment, unless they were to have some kind of system in which they are building their bitcoin in a way that does not unnecessarily put it at the extra risks of trading with it.   

One of the errors that people sometimes make, even with bitcoin, is that they wrongly conclude that there is some kind of need to earn yield or to generate profits on their BTC, which surely could end up being problematic if the bitcoin have to be stored or held by others in order to generate such yield, and if we assess bitcoin as an investment, it is already designed to pump forever in terms of its sound money attributes, and so there is no need to put your bitcoin at extra risk in order to be able to be advantaged from its sound money attributes that are more and more likely to pay off the longer that the bitcoin is held...   

In recent years, I have become increasingly bothered by attempts to evaluate bitcoin value based on spot price, even though spot price is relevant for any time that a person is going to buy or sell bitcoin - so I have tended to gravitate towards the 200-WMA as a great tool for evaluating bitcoin value - and especially becomes more and more useful for guys holding their coins for more than 4 years, and maybe even better if they are using such valuation mechanism when they are holding their BTC 4-10 years or longer.

Don't get me wrong.  I am not trying to totally poo-poo the idea of earning income from trading, because there surely may be places in which a person is able to earn more from trading rather than from doing regular work that is available in the area or available based on the persons skills and/or job experiences - even though skills and job experiences can be built up in order to increase income.  So there are trade-offs to any profession and/or how one chooses to spend time to generate income.  At the same time, I can appreciate that there can be difficulties for anyone to engage in investment practices, whether he has a separate job from trading or if his primary (or only) source of income is from trading. 

So there can be a lot of discretion regarding how much to set aside from income for investing, and through most of my life I had been saving and/or investing 10% of my income, and in my earliest years, the 10% was not very much, and there were quite a few struggles with that including figuring out where to put it, but it still can add up over the years.  I also know from my own experiences, that an overwhelming number of people are not ready, willing and/or able to even set aside 10% of their income for savings/investing.  You are not necessarily free from those kinds of considerations merely because your income source comes from trading, but I can see how a trader might have difficulties setting aside separate "don't touch" funds because there can be some value in terms of generating enough working capital in order to increase the size of his trades with the passage of time, but he still may well need to be setting some of his generated funds aside into some kind of classification of "don't touch" funds which would be considered long term investment/savings, even if he might have other funds that are his "working capital."



In the case of bitcoin, it is not really compound interest, but instead compounding value, but it is a similar idea. One of the problems with compound interest is that someone would need to pay you for that, and bitcoin is already designed in such a way that there is no need to take the extra risk for any kind of interest that you might gain from turning your bitcoin over to a third party.  ON the other hand, if there are ways to earn interest on BTC without extra counter-party risk (or only minimal counter-party risk) then that might be acceptable in some circumstances, but in bitcoin's base investing case, it is not necessary to earn interest and/or yield from it, since bitcoin is already designed to pump forever (or increase in value forever if you prefer a more neutral way of saying it).


Of course if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then it may well be problematic to call that investing.  Of course, as an individual you can do whatever you like in terms of assessing risk and market price movements in shorter time periods, but that may well be considered as trading or gambling rather than investing, and likely in need of position size reduction in order to account for the additional risk that comes from shorter term plays.   In then end people can do whatever they like, but from my perspective it is problematic to call less than 4 year stents in bitcoin as investments, so there could be some quibbling going on here in terms of what to call it.. or how to play such short-term stents in bitcoin, if any one chooses to allocate value into bitcoin for shorter than 4-year timelines.


This is sounding a bit like a quibble over semantics, if you want to proclaim that some forms of trading still should be considered as "investments," which might not be totally wrong, even though for me it seems to mish-mash the concepts if you cannot attempt to figure out some kind of way to differentiate trading/gambling from investing... and don't get me wrong, I do agree that there are some guys who are able to structure their trades in such a way that they are never going to lose, but that is not the case for typical normal people.  Learning how to make trades profitable under all conditions is a learned skill, and some guys are better at it than others.  Investing tends to take a lot fewer skills, especially in the realm of mostly honing personal financial management skills in order to accurately calculate discretionary/disposable income and to invest within the parameters of such discretionary/disposable income which likely also includes figuring out ways to maintain and/or manage emergency funds, reserve funds and monthly cash floats. 

So yeah, I mentioned that I consider bitcoin to have a 4-10 year or more investment timeline, which is also supported by the information contained in the OP of this thread.  Of course there are other places to hold money that might have shorter-timelines and/or more guarantees not to lose money, so yeah people do need to account for their timelines in terms of where to keep their value or even how aggressive they might be in their employment of various investment approaches.


That sounds correct, yet maybe I would probably phrase it a bit differently, which might be something like the deferral of gratification today in order to have the potential of having more options in the future, whether that is for oneself or for passing to heirs.  At the same time, there are going to be balances between how much to spend/consume today versus how much to save/invest, and of course, there likely would be preferences that the savings/investments at least hold current purchasing power and potentially increase in purchasing power, while at the same time there is continuous uncertainties in terms of how to save/invest in order to not lose future purchasing power... which get's us back to the idea regarding why bitcoin is likely to serve a large role in terms of the allocation of savings/investments,

and perhaps part of the reason why between 2014 and 2020 I moved from recommending to newbies (no coiners and/or low coiners) 1% to 10% in bitcoin (and during that period I would frequently suggest to just get off zero), and then from 2020 to 2023, I started to recommend 1% to 25% in bitcoin , and in 2024 I started recommending 5% to 25% in bitcoin.   Of course, people are responsible for their own choices, and they are free to allocate however, they like, and it is their choice whether to follow any suggestion from some lame rando on the interwebs, because in the end, I am not taking any responsibility for their choices to invest in bitcoin or not to invest in bitcoin or whether to trade or gamble with their bitcoin, that is on each of us to figure out what we are going to do and how we are going to spend our time, energies and value.


I still suggest that it could take 15 to 20 years for any newbie bitcoin investor to get to the point in which he is able to live off of his bitcoin without having to do outside work.  Of course, if someone comes to bitcoin after already invested in other areas, then it could be possible to cut the timeline down, including if he is close to fuck you status with whatever funds that he is reallocating into bitcoin.

If you think about it, even if a person invests 10% of his income into bitcoin, it is going to take 10 years just to have 1 year of income invested into bitcoin, and so then if his income is able to grow to entry-level fuck you status (which tends to be 20 to 30 years of income), then the ONLY ways to grow faster is that the investment must grow a lot or maybe the amount invested would have to be greater than 10%, and guys can figure out these kinds of allocation matters and also how aggressive that they are able to be in terms of investing into bitcoin and getting their bitcoin portfolio to a sufficiently large enough size in order to start to either live off of it or to have their bitcoin supplement their current income. See my post on sustainable withdrawal and perhaps other parts of that thread for the discussion of such sustainable withdrawal ideas.

Friday doesn't have any activity?

If there is Friday activity, then when does such friday activity get reported?  Never?

2024-02-27 00:00:00   54534   57615   54500   57068   4197.17   238044743   56715.53  - 86th  position
2024-02-28 00:00:00   57065   64000   56724   62512   5991.01   361873461.3   60402.75  - 40th position
2024-02-29 00:00:00   62512   63684   60365   61161   4398.26   273205327.3   62116.68  - 19th position
2024-03-01 00:00:00   61161   63265   60801   62444   2116.11   131403450.42   62096.79  - 20th position
2024-03-02 00:00:00   62433   62488   61645   62042   856.26   53110985.29   62026.61  - 22nd position

Of course, any member who figures a way to take charge of updating these here tables, that would be appreciated.

The raw data comes from the "load raw data" from the bitcoincharts website.  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Yeah.. maybe if we are consolidating between $58.5 and $64k, then there might be slightly greater odds to break down rather than breaking up - even though part of the problem is the ongoing shortage of coins that seem to exist for the weekly ETF buys, which don't tend to be trading vehicles .. they are more like longer term HODL vehicles that will reallocate once in a while.

But, hey, potentially similar to you, I am not exactly strongly convicted in regards to which way a break will come, because I can recognize and appreciate how frothy the last couple of weeks have seemed, which would justify a correction, but at the same time, if there is a correction, then that means someone is selling coins.. so I am not sure if there are enough of the weak hands wanting to sell right now... but still not going to be surprised either way... while at the same time, I would be surprised to hang out in this exact same range for more than a week or two if we measure from the beginning (which maybe we could measure from last Wednesday when we arrived here).


That is another one of the benefits of asymmetric information, including if we might conclude that the halvening is not priced in.. even though right now, there might be some additional force upon the BTC prices through the ETFs and with knowledge that the halvening is going to make the supply of BTC worse (harder to come by), yet the halvening is still likely not priced in because people do not exactly realize it and act upon it until after it has already happened....

and it takes a while with the suffering of fewer and fewer coins available to really affect the price, but then we already have fewer and fewer coins available because they are getting sucked up by the ETFs. and at the same time the halvening is coming and so.. ultimately, asymmetric information results in this is gentlemen.


Protip: You are premature in proclaiming the stock to flow model as dead. #justsaying


You really think so?  and if so, why stop there?  #asking for my lil selfie

Yes.. Day 27 for me, and it still hurts.  It hurts less than it did in the beginning, and I have increased my daily quantity of push ups, the quality of my pushups and also the frequency.. I am regularly doing 5 sessions per day, and in the beginning I was ONLY able to do 2-3 sessions per day with way fewer pushups.  So it is getting better, even though it still hurts and maybe the last 7 days (week), I have been kind of stuck at a very similar number of push ups per day and mostly doing either 4 or 5
sessions of pushups per day, and they are currently tending to be between  25-35 pushups for each session.

I am thinking that if you can only do 15 pushups, then are you doing them 5 at a time? or are you doing 15 all at once?

if you are able to do 15 push-ups all at once, then you could increase your daily pushups by doing 2, 3 or 4 sets of 10 at various points through the day.. but yeah, don't over do it.. and it might take a while to build up.. but you have to measure your own level of increases or ways to increase the quantity of push ups that you are able to do each day.


It is still something.  so if you are feeling pain and tired, then maybe you are not ready to move up to more.. but splitting into 3 sessions seems pretty reasonable, especially if you spread it through the whole day.. and maybe at some point you can increase the number of pushups per session or increase the number of sessions.


Gosh.  How do we know?  It could be this month that we reach $100k, or it could take several months or even it could take more than a year to reach $100k.  I am not going to proclaim to know, but I can feel both a lot of BTC price momentum and UPPity price pressures... as well as the seemingly ongoing pressures on the supply of bitcoin that gets gobbled up by the ETFs, and so it can be questionable regarding from where are they getting their coins.. because even though some guys are willing to sell their coins as the BTC price goes up, some guys are less willing to sell their coins without a bit more price appreciation... so it could be possible that we get to $100k a lot more quickly than we would under more regular and normal circumstances, but we don't seem to be living in regular and normal times right now.

That is not true.  If you consider that the meaning of taking profits is that you have gotten more dollars, and then you take profits in dollars, your dollars might not be holding value as well as you believe that they are, and so you are being mislead about the benefits of taking profits and/or even when it might be prudent to "take profits."   Another thing is that if you look at bitcoin over the long term, then even if there is a lot of up and down volatility, the ultimate direction of volatility has been in the upwards direction, so taking profits from the most sound (pristine) asset that has ever existed may well end up putting you on the wrong side of the greatest wealth transfer of our time (and perhaps in history).


It is a dangerous game to be fucking around with trading the best asset... but hey do what you like and hopefully you don't get caught on the wrong side of a trade... and another problem might be playing with leverage to make it even worse if you are on the wrong side of an asset that is generally already has been winning quite a bit and likely to continue to win and you don't even have to play with leverage, which makes it available to everyone so long as they mostly buy and hold and don't be fucking around with getting in and out and taking chances.

By the way the guys who might have bought at the top of the 2021 periods are likely now back in profits, and even more so if they had been buying all along rather than fucking around with getting in and out, which might not work out very well... so in that sense, ongoing buying becomes almost a sure bet (even though nothing is guaranteed), and so even if their costs might have ended up relatively high because of their buying at relatively high price times, there were a lot of opportunities over the last couple of years to bring down their cost per BTC and to be sitting in a very good position right now, and they would not even be needing to sell, merely because if they are in profits and have the option to sell, there likely will be a lot of opportunities and additional options if they continue to hold and perhaps even continue to buy and especially if their investment timeline might be for longer terms such as for the next 4-10 years or longer.


4-10 years or longer from any additional purchase, and surely if a guy might start as a brand new investor, he might consider regular investments might take 30-40 years to play out and to start to draw from them, but it well could be the case that the time before starting to draw from bitcoin might even be reasonable to cut in half, such as 15-20 years, even though nothing is guaranteed. 

For people who are not brand new investors, they might have to consider how much of an investment portfolio that they had already built up prior to coming into bitcoin, but I would still consider that any new purchases should be considered with a 4-10 year time horizon.. and if your time horizon is less than 4 years, for every new purchase of BTC, then you may well not be a longer term investor... and you may still have your reasons for getting bitcoin exposure for shorter time periods, but I would not necessarily consider new investments of less than 4 years to be long term, but more like gambles that may or may not pay off, so there might need to be some care in regards to position size, especially when devolving into gambling rather than investing.


In long term investing, besides being narrowly focused on profits, you can also think in terms of potentially having more options, especially with an investment like bitcoin that is likely better able to hold its value as compared with the dollar or any other asset that might be held.. so if you hold long enough then your investment likely compounds upon itself, so then you have way more options if you are 3x to 5x to 10x to 50x up in profits as compared to taking simple profits that are less than 100%, which a lot of folks tend to be taking profits way too soon and then they end up interferring with bitcoin's compounding process.  Look at the power of compounding in my post that includes some examples.


To simplify some of the calculations, if you hold your BTC long enough then you likely will have more options in terms of how much profits you are already in, so let's say that your cost per BTC is around $1k per BTC.   And, so if the price of BTC is below $10k per BTC in 2020 (so you are around 10x in profits), and then if the BTC price goes up to where you are 70x in profits and then comes back down to where you are 16x.. does it make big differences if you might just cash some out at various points in time?   It is not like you necessarily have to cash out large portions at a time in order to enjoy having BTC in your holdings.

Yeah, sure you can cash out some extra when the price is 40x, 50x 60x or more, but you are not totally screwed either, even if you might have ended up having to cash out some at lower multiples of profits... and should you worry right now that the BTC price is going to go back to $20k (only 20x in profits)? 

I would think with the passage of time, you see that the 200-WMA continues to move up (which tends to mostly be a bottom indicator).  In 2020, the 200-WMA was ONLY right around $6k, and BTC's price action of 2021 brought it up to $20k, and then currently it is around $31,600.. which mean the bottom is moving up, and the bottom is now 31.6x for the guy with an average cost per BTC of $1k.  You can look at the historical 200-WMA values here.

If you are getting in and out of BTC, are you able to bring down your average cost per BTC? and/or are you able to increase your BTC stash (and your options?)  I think that you are in a much less certain place if you are getting in and out.. rather than engaging in more simple ongoing and consistent BTC building.

Yes.  I agree that it is more challenging to enter into an investment after the price has risen a lot, including if you consider that bitcoin has risen right around 4x since November 2022  or even more than 2x since October 2023.

Nonetheless, as an investor, especially a newbie who might be considering establishing a BTC position, you may well want to make sure that you are prepared for either UP or down, and the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some bitcoin.  If you do not have any bitcoin, then you are not prepared for UP, and waiting does not constitute being prepared for up.

Now as a newbie if you think that you are some kind of expert or you have some kind of superior knowledge (or hunch) that the BTC price is going to drop, then maybe you would risk waiting, but that seems to be just gambling rather than really being serious about investing.

One of the best strategies for anyone, including newbies, would be to perform some kind of a lump sum investment right away, but then to make sure that he has additional funds (whether from cashflow or just holding back some of the invested amount) to either keep buying no matter what and to also potentially hold back some funds in order to prepare to buy on dips.

One of the problems with lump sum investing and also the situation of a lot of normies is that normies (meaning most normal people) do not have have abilities to lump sum, and that is why DCA tends to be so effective and/or practical. So if there is some cash just coming in on a regular basis and some of that is considered disposable/discretionary income, then you determine how much of that you want to dedicate to investing into bitcoin, and then the question would be whether to invest right away or to hold some of it back for buying on dips.

Another thing is that if someone is new to investing, it well could take 10 years (at 10% invested/saved) to be able to invest up to a year's salary, so it take a whole fucking long time to really build any kind of meaningful portfolio, so if you happen to be someone who is fairly new to investing and you have been investing way less than 10 years, you are probably better off just DCAing most of the amount that you allocate, and perhaps considering whether there might be some value to holding some of that back for buying on dips.

Now if you are someone who has other funds that you can allocate, then that puts you into a situation of someone who can lump sum part of that, and if you are someone who has been investing into bitcoin for several years, then you also might have the luxury of letting off on your DCA in these price territories, but it still may not necessarily make sense to let off on your BTC accumulation unless you have figured out some strategies in which you have already assessed that you have accumulated enough BTC or that you have over accumulated.  If you are not able to make those kinds of determinations, then it probably would be better to just continue buying BTC regularly until you reach such status. .and that is surely and truly under your own criteria that you would reach such an assessment about your own situation.

If you are merely looking at the current BTC price move, that is only one of the factors, and surely, you might consider that there are better places to put your money - even though personally, it seems like a problematic determination, especially if you have already assessed that you have neither reached sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation or overaccumulation.


Of course, if you have  spent a considerable amount of time accumulating BTC, then you may well have reached a status of either accumulating enough BTC or even having had over accumulated BTC, so you have more options once you reach those kinds of assessments.. and since you have been registered on this forum for nearly 9 years, since April 2015, you have had a lot of opportunities to accumulate bitcoin throughout the last 9 years, yet at the same time, you likely realize that bitcoin currently is not really in a position of being overly valued - especially considering what happened in the last couple of years and the significant amount of ongoing existent and persistent buying pressures coming from a lot of new categories of buyers, and also including that BIG financial institutions are now starting to market their products that would require that they are backed by actual bitcoin rather than paper bitcoin.

So you should be attempting to account for actual factors that involve assessments of BTC price and whether you might consider that bitcoin has higher price potential from here. You are responsible for coming to your own assessments that would involve how many BTC you believe is sufficient and adequate preparation for up.. and yeah always trying to be prepared financially and psychologically for the BTC price to move in either direction in the short to medium term, while at the same time keeping your eye on the prize, in the event that you actually are able to understand what makes bitcoin valuable and likely more valuable than any other asset currently in existence... and you don't even have to believe all of those kinds of bullish ideas in order to figure out your own allocations and how much you need to assure that you are prepared for either and both possible BTC price directions at the same time based on your assessing the particulars and viewpoints of each of your own assessments of the 9 factors.

Another thing is that it can take a lot of practice to really  get some kind of balance in your own life in terms of assessing the 9 factors so that you end up being comfortable with your own allocation choices, including the extent to which you might feel that you want to approach bitcoin with a whimpy approach or a more aggressive approach, and maybe also assessing if you want to allocate somewhere between 5% to 25% of your investment into bitcoin and so 5% would be on the more whimpy side and 25% would be on the more aggressive side, but you can ONLY afford to be aggressive if you have done some of the necessary studying of your own circumstances.  Of course you are free to go outside of that range, but the 5% to 25% is an initial starting point to figure out where you might fall within that recommended starting range.

2024-02-27 00:00:00   54534   57615   54500   57068   4197.17   238044743   56715.53  - 82nd  position
2024-02-28 00:00:00   57065   64000   56724   62512   5991.01   361873461.3   60402.75  - 37th position
2024-02-29 00:00:00   62512   63684   60365   61161   4398.26   273205327.3   62116.68  - 19th position
2024-03-01 00:00:00   61161   63265   60801   62444   2116.11   131403450.42   62096.79  - 20th position
 

Of course, any member who figures a way to take charge of updating these here tables, that would be appreciated.

The raw data comes from the "load raw data" from the bitcoincharts website.  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Ok.  I have worn you out.  no problema.

I don't really get that reliant on BTC UPpity.. even though I already have enough so I can pretty much spend it whenever, even though I have systems in place to spend fiat first, and then so yeah sometimes there can be questions about what to spend it on..and maybe even having too much fiat that needs to be spent first.. but still there can be balancing and also some stresses that come from outrageous downity periods. so there could be reluctance to spend any BTC during down periods and then running out of cash.. so any of us might still need to figure out ways to manage these kinds of balances.. and there could be ways to spend more money in order to run out more quickly too..

In terms of price, I think that it is quite difficult to know, because many of us (not sure if you fit in this camp) likely realize that BTC has a value that is right around at least 1,000x of gold, and BTC is currently about 1/10th to 1/12th lower in price than gold (referring to market cap).

So I kind of sense that getting to gold parity and even 10x higher than gold might not be very difficult, either this cycle or maybe 1-2 extra cycles,, but then getting from 10x gold until 1,000x gold, that could take 50 to 200 years... and in terms of the article, yes bitcoin is likely to be a 100x in the coming 1-3 cycles, but it also could end up in 1,000x from here in another couple cycles after that.. but who knows.. including that its upward potential is still more than 10,000x from here, and there could be some expansion of bitcoin's addressable market too in order to expand the addressable market.. but that is still also quite a bit further out into the future.

and yeah, most  of us are looking in the next 1-4 cycles and maybe we might not even be living another 50 years, even some of the younger wipper snappers in these here parts might find it difficult to be attempting to plan 50 years down the road, even though some of them will likely still be alive.. and some of us will be gone prematurely too and perhaps believe that we might be able to make it another 50 years, and not be able to do it.. .. but does it really matter so much if we can make it 50 years because even if some of us might have a longer investment timeline, there might not be too many guys that want to plan to be investing 30 years or more.  The guys are going to want to be transitioning to spending their coins rather than accumulating them, even the newest of coiners...and yeah some guys are already in the spending rather than holding stage.. so even a brand new bitcoin investor would like to short cut some of the time in order to be able to start to spend,.. so maybe in 15-20 years rather than 30-40 years.

DCA calculators do not tell you how much you will make in the future.  They ONLY show past performance, which that does not mean that you would profit in the future. 

I think that it is it better to figure out your own formula in terms of investing as much as you feel comfortable, while realizing that you might not gain any money and you also might lose all of it.

For beginners going into bitcoin, you should at least consider the below 9 factors:. .and DCA with small amounts while you are learning is also o.k. in order that you can determine if you would like to become more aggressive, and at the same time it is important to get started sooner rather than later in order that you can get some kind of a start and even getting set up with how you are going to source your buys can take a bit of time to figure out and maybe to adapt along the way, too.

I would not assume that spreading it out the whole day is not causing pain.  I have been doing pushups for 26 days, and I have had pain every day, and I have been spreading them out through the day and even sometimes trying to consider a few hours between sets, but usually I will have between 1.5 hours and 3.5 hours between sets, but then sometimes if I am busy, I might have some sets that linger and 6-8 hours between sets.

I personally believe that it is better to try to keep doing at least some pushups every day rather than taking days off, and if some guys over do it, then they are going to need to take days off... so it would be better to avoid that, if possible.

There might be some  guys that are very vulnerable in terms of their joints and/or their lack of muscle tone (or maybe their level of obesity), and with these guys it might be better to do modified push-ups rather than regular full pushups.  

They are still likely to be going to feel a lot of pain, even if they are doing the moderated forms of pushups and even if they spread out their pushups through the whole day, until they build up to it, which could take 6 months or more for some guys. and they are more likely to make progress if they don't over do it and end up either getting physically or psychologically injured.


This part sounds right.


Yeah.. they can be hard.  Every once in a while I can do a couple of sets in short periods of time, but after so many sets and so many days of doing them, I find it better to spread them out a bit.

Now if I was in my 20s, I might have been able to push myself more.

Many guys likely know that one of the additional problem of aging can be that recovery time is a lot longer, and some of the recovery time reduction does get supplemented by testosterone treatments and/or steroids, but some of us do not want to take those kinds of drugs .. or at least to avoid them or to put them off until later in life.  Exercise can naturally build up testosterone levels and improve recovery times, but it still can seem like a very slow progress to see the improvements.. and yeah, if some guys get too whimpy on their pushups and maybe skip days, then that could be problematic if they engage in the skipping too much or if they don't try to push themselves enoug, but maybe if they skip one day a week that might be acceptable and even improve their performance and recovery time...especialy for older guys or more out of shape guys.


You might find some days where you are able to add in more, but probably the main thing is that you have a baseline that you are building upon.. and one of the things that I have found helpful is to do some heavy breathing^** and even stretching out before and after the push ups... oh and the heavy breathing during the pushups sometimes can help to make them seem easier and maybe some loud grunting or release of noises as long as you aren't annoying the neighbors or the other members of the household too much.

**By heavy breathing I mean deep breaths and intentionally trying to get a lot of oxygen flowing into your system

It is short term if you decide to sell.  Bitcoin can be whatever you like, and if you sell too much too soon, you might have wished that you had treated your investment into bitcoin as long term instead of short term.

Let's take a longer term example.  Let's say that someone came into bitcoin in 2014 and spent a couple of years accumulating bitcoin, so maybe he accumulated around 50 BTC at around $500 each. So his total investment is $25k.  So when the BTC price shot up to $2,000, he could not resist, and he sold all of his BTC, and so he ended up selling them for $100k, and so he has around $75k in profits... that is pretty good, right?  He is still not doing as good as the longer term investor who still has the 50 BTC, and maybe the longer term investor has more BTC and his average cost per BTC is more than $500 per BTC.. we can imagine a lot of scenarios, and bitcoin has tended to be a good investment to hold onto for the long term, even if you might get enough BTC and you might want to shave off some profits along the way, you can still consider your investment as something that you mostly hold onto rather than converting into dollars and then ending up with dollars or some other inferior investment or maybe consumption good that you would be better off to have more BTC at a later price, even if your cost per BTC might end up being much higher.


That is not true.  With DCA you might end up spending way more on your bitcoin and even paying way more per coin, but with DCA you are likely able to accumulate way more BTC over a longer period of time than you would have been able to if you had tried to lump sum or even to try to strategize by waiting to buy.  So DCA helps you to potentially invest into BTC more aggressively over a longer period of time, and even if it might cost you more, you still may end up with more options, especially if you might front load your investment or you might be able to allow for the passage of several cycles.


The person has discretion how to do it, and surely could divide it into 3 parts of DCA, lump sum and buying on dip, and of course, he might allocate more to the lump sum portion.  Most people do not have lump sums available like that, but if they do, then they should at least consider the three categories, and they may well end up front loading their investment in times like this, but they still might want to hold some back for DCA and buying on dip, in the event that they do not have other cashflow in order to buy in case the BTC price turns against them after buying at these current prices.

I am not any kind of expert, but I understand that if the end user is wanting exposure to bitcoin and they buy one of the spot BTC ETF products, then the ETF provider has an obligation to buy the underlying within a relatively short period of time that could be anywhere around 24 hours, and my understanding is that they might even require notice from the client (the end user), so that they buy exposure prior to selling the ETF share to the client.

So pretty much the ETF providers match the quantity of shares (or BTC exposure) that their various clients want to have, and if a client sells, then the ETF provider sells within a short time, too.


That is going to depend on the client.. the client could be individuals, institutions and/or governments, and they might be going through tax privileged vehicles or they might have tax consequences for their buying/selling.  I think it is presumed that ETFs are not as likely to be trading as much, and they are more likely to be longer term holders, but they are not prevented from trading so they may well buy and sell frequently and/or reallocate from time to time.


That's up to the client.


Yes.


There are going to be some clients that are institutions and/or fund managers and/or in charge of other people's money who are buying BTC spot ETFs and they might be buying the BTC spot ETFs as an individualized product, or they might be re-packaging the BTC spot ETFs as part of another product.  Within a couple weeks of the launch of the ETFs Fidelity already came out with a product that had a few percentages of the allocation dedicated to BTC spot ETF exposure.


They can trade, but they are not the same as trading BTC on an exchange, so maybe they might be considered to be more as swing traders rather than day traders.


 


I thought that I read somewhere that Satoshi had stated to someone that the number was somewhat arbitrary, and of course, he (satoshi) had to go through the way that whole system works with the issuance and the halvenings and how long it would play out in order to consider a variety of possible numbers to use.


I see no reason to proclaim that S2F is not valid, merely because there was some underperformance.  Yeah, maybe the specifics did not come true, but so what?.. there could be questions about if the actual price moves are one or two standard deviations above or below what the model suggests, but those deviations would not likely last long, and then the BTC price returns into the parameters of the model, but just happen to be on the low end rather than being in the middle.


That's why bottoms are better to track rather than tops.  Yeah, sure sell some BTC at various top points, yet in the end who knows where they are going to land..

I might have to update my percentage/probabilities assignment for this cycle.. of course starting for the odds for topping anywhere between $64,001 and perhaps $5 million.. and sure we might need a category for $5 million plus... or should I just call the last category $2.5 million plus?  I used $1.5 million plus for my last one (which I had put at ONLY about 0.5% odds of happening for that cycle), and still that number has not been used, but it would seem lame to use the same top number as previously.. as if we had not advanced (or made progress) in the last couple of years since my last probabilities assignments that I did in December 2021?

Another thing is that the 200-WMA has come up quite a lot since then too.. so that probably helps to move the possibility for higher tops up too.. just tentatively thinking... it is getting tempting to plug in the numbers, but I hate to get too far ahead of myself and to plug the numbers in what seems to be our earlier stages of uppity rather than what ended up being the end of our UPpity from the last cycle.


Even though he could be correct, he is too much of a bitcoin newbie, but I did watch the video, and he makes quite a bit of sense, but he does still sound a bit like a newbie in terms of his having quite a bit of reliance on pumpamentals.. which yeah could still end up being true..   He also seems to think that $1 million is a kind of stable price for bitcoin.. and that seems to really underappreciate his thoughts of governments taking bitcoin into their treasuries.

I have said that 2x to 3x from here in the short term might give us some place to reassess and maybe put some more bitcoin on the market to help give some relief to the flows and the pressures of the ETFs. and other related current UPpity price pressures.

That is not true.

A compromised key could end up with stolen funds 20 years later.


That is not true.

Even if the ETF volumes go down, they are still a lot (at magnanimous levels), and likely to continue to be a lot even if they go down from here (which is a questionable presumption, at best).

Another thing is that we can experience a BTC price correction at any time, so good thing that some of us don't fuck around with trying to figure out short-term BTC price moves, which can go up or down in the opposite direction than expected at any time, even if all of the sentiment and momentum seem to be going in an expected way.. and yeah, whether the sudden reversal lasts is another thing.. which surely you mentioned the squeezing of leveraged positions as part of the motivation to make a large price push in the short term, that does not usually end up sticking.. but sometimes after a sudden move in one direction or another the BTC price will end up getting stuck in the range that it moved to.. but sustainability frequently is difficult to sustain when the BTC price movement is in the upward direction - but never say never.

In other words, fuck supposed ETF volume decreases. .the overall information is that the BTC spot ETFs are an overwhelming success beyond imagination and are likely going to continue in that direction, even if the volumes might perhaps maybe could come down some.. There is no meaningful and important substantive evidence to say otherwise, even if you might be able to see some temporary supposed losses of volume momentum in your minute candles.


I am glad that I am doing my part to bring back good memories.  


That surely works.  I used to do that in the 90s.

One thing I find so helpful about spreadsheets, once you put the information in, is that you can manipulate one or two variables and then see how the numbers play out quite differently and it might take a lot more time to create those various sheets of paper with alternative scenarios.


We all do those kinds of things.  It is just a matter of degree, and surely there are people who can keep a lot of that kind of stuff in their head, and some people do it better than others, while at the same time, there are likely ONLY so many scenarios that you can keep in your head at the same time... part of the benefits of plotting it out.

I do appreciate that sometimes it makes more sense to either work it out in your head or to talk it through with "a friend" or maybe even do an interpretive dance, and yeah, I recall that when I was learning dance moves, I would have to write them out, and others just do them over and over  and others would learn by watching videos and even making videos of themselves doing the dance moves... so we learn in differing ways.


That is all fine and dandy if you don't run out of coins.  If we say that 2017 might have  been more difficult if we might consider that maybe a lot of folks might have considered the likely top to be in the $3k to $5k range, so there were a lot of sellers who ran out of coins way before the $19,666 top.

So maybe part of the reason for your better success in 2021 might have had to do with the price not being as toppie in 2021 as it had been in 2017.. or maybe you just had some other ways of measuring what you perceive to be success  - which I am kind of gathering success for you would be an ability to sell mostly at the top so that you could buy back, versus I might consider success differently, such as selling a reasonable amount of coins and having more coins to sell in case the price continued to go up.. but yeah, I can see how some folks (like me) might have some regrets when the price ends up correcting and relatively speaking we had not really ended up selling very many coins.


There are a lot of expressions to cover these kinds of ideas in terms of the futility of trying to time tops and bottoms, and even acknowledging luck in some of it.

There are also a lot of expressions about trying to be directionally correct, and not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Many of the profits in bitcoin come from mostly holding onto it, but surely once any of us have established a position then we can end up playing the waves and even being in front of them to some extent, as long as we do not get too greedy.. so never run out of bitcoin to be able to sell on the way up and never run out of cash to be able to buy on the way down.  The way that each of us does this can vary, and some guys will have better results than others in terms of performance, and there could also be variances of success that are still successful, but might not be as successful as another guy.

Some of the measures are somewhat personal and subjective too, so we cannot necessarily measure in terms of who has more money, but maybe instead in terms of various financial goals that might have had been set and then how well that any of our strategies had been tailored to our individual circumstances... so for example, some of us might prefer to run the risk of not making as much money as long as we have protection for the upside and the downside, and so hedging in both directions tends to not be as profitable, but it may well give way more peace of mind, which also may well lead us to being able to sleep better, which has its own benefits.


Nice.


You may or may not have had been in a position to allocate higher amounts or even to just let your BTC holdings run over a couple of cycles.

I consider my own trading levels to be so low that I have about 2.5 cycles of mostly just HODLing, even though yeah, I fuck around with selling on the way up and buying on the way down, but when you really think about what I am doing, I am largely ONLY playing around with only a few percentages of my holdings... so yeah, what I do might change in the future, especially since my holdings are around 61x in profits rather than being 3x to 20x in 2017, and yeah I fluctuated between 16x and 70x in profits in 2021, 2022 and 2023, but we seem to be moving back to higher levels, and who needs those levels of profits?  I mean even if I am not completely cashing out, I could cash out several times my investment several times and still have a lot left over... so there seems to be way more compounding effects that come from mostly allowing the BTC to ride through a couple of cycles before selling large amounts.. .. Yeah, maybe I ended up selling around 10% of my stash in 2017 during that wave.. I am not exactly sure, but I think in 2021, I probably sold less than 5%,  but then in both cases most of that was bought back in stages as the BTC price corrected back down in 2018 and 2022 respectively.


The smaller numbers end up bringing optionality, but also they can really have magnifying effects when they are BIGGER.  I mean, I claim that my own input into BTC was 10% of my investment portfolio by the end of 2014 but then I ended up with 13.5% by the end of 2015 through my own additional investment into bitcoin, but it went up to right around 80% in late 2017, came back down to 42% in late 2018, went back up to 89% in late 2021 and came back down to 63% in mid 2022.. You can see the numbers in my chart at the bottom of the post, I have not updated since mid-2022, but it is likely back in the upper 80%s or maybe even lower 90%s .. and the post 2015 changes are mostly due to changes in the appreciation of the asset (namely bitcoin) rather than very much dealing with my own actions.

And the point that I am trying to relate is that the BTC holdings have outperformed everything else and that comes from mostly holding and not taking profits.. but I suppose if there are profits and they are mostly reinvested, those kinds of things happened with my own BTC maintenance and management too... there has been some money that I have taken out and I did not return into the BTC pool, but then in late 2022, I was injecting some new money too since I was mostly running out of BTC allocated money, especially once the BTC price got below $20k... so I had injected some new money.. but then I might have taken some of that out too.. so, I am still trying to figure out where I am at in regards to whether on balance more went in or more came out in 2022 and then into 2023.  


For sure part of the idea of asymmetric bet is that you don't need to be 100% convinced.  You just invest in accordance to some senses that you have, and if you are more wimpy, then you invest on the lower and and if you are more aggressive you invest on the more aggressive end, and neither should require 100% conviction... but you know that you would be losing more the more that you invest, while at the same time having greater possible upside.. while at the same time, knowing that time in the market is frequently better than trying to time the market.

Everyone has to consider their 9 factors, too.. and so if you are getting more elderly or in your liquidation phase rather than in your accumulation phase, then you may well not be as incline to increase your allocations in anything or to change around your current allocations very much.


You can plug any date into the tool that bitmover and I created and you can see the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-wma on any particular date.  You can also see that so far, the most that the BTC price has ever been below the 200-wma was in November 2022 when it had a couple of days that were right around 34% below the 200WMA.. look at November 10th and November 22nd.

You can also quickly see the numbers for tops such as December 17, 2017 when BTC prices were more than 1,400% above the 200-WMA or other tops in 2013 and or 2021.


 Of course if you are either striving to use your proceeds for consumptions or even to try to buy back some, then you are aiming towards selling most of it.. ..

but if you are mostly holding through the cycles and merely using your sales as a kind of insurance, then you sell lower amounts and you never run out of BTC... but then your networth goes down quite a bit during the correction.


 The purpose of this thread/forum .. sharing ideas.. and it goes both ways... for sure.  There are various ways to play your holdings.


Tempting for people to do those things.. especially when they might be trying to rush the process.  I frequently suggest to anyone that if they are investing 10% of their salary, then it is going to take them 10 years to reach a whole year's salary invested.  So people get impatient, and sure you can invest more an there are smart ways to be more aggressive, but then when the error is on the side of taking unnecessary risks, then there are chances of losing everything and then having to start over, which surely can be costly.. but so many will be tempted into gambling rather than investing, and it might even seem to pay off, until it doesn't .. so that can be a problem to lose all of your principle and then to assume that you can just get it back.. but surely there are people who really love gambling and they might even call what they are doing as investing.