Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[OgNasty]

If I were a day trader I’d be a little concerned that the ETF volumes seemed to have peaked. If we see lower volumes again tomorrow it could be a warning sign. Something to watch for. With the halving right around the corner though I think you’re better off sitting through any short term pain.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[SamReomo]

Not even 100% sure if the camera was pointed on the seed or not. But yes I agree, maybe if I get too much Kopfkino I will create a new wallet. But if they were really watching it would have been gone already I think.

You should stop thinking about it buddy too much, it will cause huge spikes of stress time after time. If you think that they might have seen your wallet's seed phrase then try to check out your wallet address in a block explorer, and if you see no new transactions then I'm pretty sure you're 100% safe. But, still if you fear then just go for the new wallet. It's far better to take a step then worrying.

[WatChe]

If I were a day trader I’d be a little concerned that the ETF volumes seemed to have peaked. If we see lower volumes again tomorrow it could be a warning sign. Something to watch for. With the halving right around the corner though I think you’re better off sitting through any short term pain.

I am the one who hasn't checked ETF's till date because of my concerns about it. But it looks like one has to keep that under consideration for Bitcoin price. There is wide speculation that current bull run is mainly because of ETF's.

[OROBTC]

...

JJG at #661629

That was about as comprehensive a reply I have ever received for anything I have ever written in my life (inc. the Spanish 4 paper I wrote in high school that Miss Breiner raked me over the coals on...).

*   *   *

I have nothing against spreadsheets, but they're not my style re BTC buying and selling.  Sure, they can provide plausible number scenarios, but I just use a calculator and notes on paper.  Just as a by-the-by, most of my formal planning is done re the big things (heirs).

Yes, nicely perceived that my plan is basically in my head, leaving open the possibilities of course corrections.  One thing I have learned: we are all different!  Also very perceptive of you to offer up the observation that it, my buying and selling tactics, might be (at least in part) in my subconscious...  What are you, some kinda combat psychologist?

When it comes to selling, both in 2017 and 2021 I sold some past the ATHs. I would attribute A LOT of luck to this process of selling roughly the same amounts before and after the peaks.  I was very lucky to have sold off a sliver on the very day of THE ATH, but not at the tippy-top peak of that day.  


Re the whole topic of "not having made enough (exact optimal amount perhaps better expressed???) money" in BTC and/or retained enough to have better "alpha", well, yeah, had I had more perfect vision of the future, sure I would have bought more here, sold less there...  [I noted you explicitly made the same point]  But who can do that optimally all the time?  Pas de moi.  I made enough to really have made me very happy re 2021, that was a nice amount, even if it really didn't change anything fundamental re my family finances.  So, no condo in Dubai, at least yet...


You made some interesting other points that I have not run into before:

-- Optionality, a concept I have run into before, but very valid re BTC gains, even for small amounts invested (1% - 2%).  Right now, I/we (I gave my grandsons some) we are running at some 3% of net wealth in BTC.  I'd have to check my numbers, but something on the order of 3%, maybe a bit more, was what I held just before my selling in 2021.  I want to think more about your comments on this.

-- That was an interesting observation as well re increasing our %-share as the BTC network strengthens, and we see more new & bigger entrants.  This promises to be fascinating, I guess in the months and years to come.  5% - 25% is more than I want to devote, though, as I am not 100% convinced that BTC is going to work out as most (inc. me) think.

-- I also like your idea (new to me) of studying and using the 200 day moving average in your thinking.  Even if it's just for perspective.  I would like to see how the pretty clear patterns of BTC 4-year cycle daily pricing (to date anyway) fit in with the moving average...  

-- I also remember from 2021 that I started off my selling-by-slice by selling slices that, at first, were perhaps too large...  Which of course meant that my smaller, later slices were less lucrative at the higher prices.  This relates to your comment about running out too soon of BTC to sell should the price run up to VERY HIGH LEVELS (say, over $150,000).  I will certainly keep that in mind not to sell off much of my BTC for too low.


Excellent thought provoking comments, thank you!



EDIT: Yep, 10-4 rgr that about NO "yield producing products", NO sh*tcoins, NO leverage.  Big mistakes are costly and demoralizing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

If I were a day trader I’d be a little concerned that the ETF volumes seemed to have peaked, yet. If we see lower volumes again tomorrow it could be a warning sign. Something to watch for. With the halving right around the corner though I think you’re better off sitting through any short term pain.

FTFY

It's not easy for institutions to shift huge investment sums around like that. Those already invested in spot ETF decided to do so before the SEC gave their thumbs-up, so they had their volumes ready. A part of the money just flew off GBTC to be embraced by Greyscale's (or Grayscale's?) new competitors.
All the other (unlucky) institutional investors have to first get significant investment changes nicked off by directors, shareholders etc. first, while some even still wait if ETFs might be a thing and observe before they decide to get in. So if you were a day trader, you might also be heading for losses by selling too early. But that's what daytraders do. They win, they lose, they win...
As we know here in WO, most are better of by trading market cycles. But if one is the type that is mainly driven by Adrenaline and Dopamine rushes, this would probably bore him/her to death.  
To each it's own, they say...

…and avoid the Kopfkino by getting a new wallet.

Bet I’m not the only one that googled that very cool term.

Didn't hear/read that term in quite some time...

Reason why I had to eat less than ramen. 

Where in the world can i get such recent stats?
Everything i found (so far) is dated back by about two working days.

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All Credit to ChartBuddy

Monthly on hold for a minute, imgur giving problems.

EDIT: Look at me, so quick to blame others.  I fubared something, and can't fix it right now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1763438615198142822

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[greensheep]

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,

[strawbs]

I was just having a read through some of the recently released email history between Satoshi and Martii 'Sirius' Malmi. I only just became aware of these, so thought I'd share in case others had missed/are interested:

https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040089075888292

One question I've always had is why he picked 21 million? Why not a round number, like 50m or 100m? And why is a Satoshi 100 millionth of a BTC and not a 10 millionth or a 1,000 millionth? Did he make assumptions about future value and therefore the minimum required 'value' of a satoshi relative to fiat?

Curious.

[ivomm]

Blacrock neutralized Greyscale record outflows yesterday. With this pace by the end of the year Greyscale will be no more on the ETF market. I doubt that all ETF companies will survive Blackrock's competition.

https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1763474314609766412

[strawbs]

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work-1032961880?op=1

[BitcoinBunny]

I was just having a read through some of the recently released email history between Satoshi and Martii 'Sirius' Malmi. I only just became aware of these, so thought I'd share in case others had missed/are interested:

https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040089075888292

One question I've always had is why he picked 21 million? Why not a round number, like 50m or 100m? And why is a Satoshi 100 millionth of a BTC and not a 10 millionth or a 1,000 millionth? Did he make assumptions about future value and therefore the minimum required 'value' of a satoshi relative to fiat?

Curious.

You've probably done a Google but this Quora (such an awful awful site...) answer seems plausible.

There has been a lot of speculation why the number 21 was chosen.

It could be symbolic. In 2008 the global M1 money supply was estimated at $21 trillion.

An interesting explanation was suggested by Christian Seberino in 2018.

21 million was chosen in order to involve floating-point arithmetic. The maximum integer that can be represented with 51 bits is just slightly over 2100 trillion.

[P_Shep]

https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1763438615198142822

Yes please.

[BitcoinBunny]

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work-1032961880?op=1

Your mommy and daddy gave you 10 dollars to buy Bitcoin.
But you don't quite understand how Bitcoin works or think it's dangerous to hold the Bitcoin yourself.
You get annoyed because you can see Bitcoin's value go up and up and you still have not bought any.
You smash your He-Man action figure against the wall in rage.

Now Johnny comes along and has a Bitcoin ETF, he says:
"Don't do that to your He-Man action figure, instead buy Bitcoin via myself and you will have all the He-Man action figures in the world."

ETFs have been approved by the government investment daddy.
You give Johnny the 10 dollars to invest in Bitcoin and he takes care of the rest, taking a small percentage of your 10 dollars.
That's how Johnny makes his money but Johnny HAS TO BUY enough Bitcoin to cover the rest of your initial 10 dollars.
Your investment still tracks the current price.
Johnny will take care of hodling the Bitcoin, the access keys, wallet management etc.
Johnny is pretty reputable usually as he has created other approved ETFs in the past for gold for example and other people bought that too.

When you ask Johnny for your investment, he will give it to you and sell the Bitcoin also.
The Bitcoin amount will be the same as when you bought in, but your investment can have gone up or down.

As always, it is probably still safer to buy the Bitcoin yourself and hold direct access.
But if you're five, maybe Johnny is the better option.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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