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9541  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years on: September 18, 2020, 02:32:00 AM
I do not believe that this strategy works perfectly, but rather on the rise of btc, selling, awaiting retraction and price correction, after that return to invest!

Well, how are you really going to know how to do this exactly?  There are so many people who try to play around figuring out the BTC market and the price and they end up screwing things up.  Personally, I think that it is way better to just invest a small amount on an ongoing basis until you reach your BTC accumulation goal, and then maybe once you reach your BTC accumulation goal then you can start to fuck around trying to guess the price and maybe selling a bit with the hopes of buying back lower - otherwise, way better for normal people just to stack sats on an ongoing basis and to have a long time horizon.. such as 10 years or more.

On the other hand, if you want to provide a specific kind of scenario in which your plan to try to guess the BTC price and to figure out when to buy and when to sell and then when to buy again, then maybe you need to explain a bit more specifically, rather than just stating the overall unfleshed out idea that comes off as a bit like gambling rather than investing.


What makes Bitcoin so attractive is one of its volatile prices, so it's different from other investments. Bitcoin has the opportunity
to provide much greater profit. Although no one has ever known when events in 2017 could happen again. But many Bitcoin holders
don't really think about it, the most important thing is to collect as much Bitcoin as possible, and hold Bitcoin until the Bitcoin price
returns to the all time high price like what happened in 2017. So investing $ 1 in Bitcoin every day can be an option, so you don't feel
heavy when investing in Bitcoin. But small things like that can have a big impact later on.

If you are buying small amounts of BTC every day and building up your BTC stash, how are you going to know that you are entering into a situation like 2017 or some kind of fake out?  If you look back at the charts, the BTC price went up in two sessions rather than one long session in 2017.. and really it took the 2017 session about 2 years to play out.  Of course, the price was rising slowly, and then the price started going up faster and faster in the end, but still, how are you going to know... 

If you keep accumulating BTC for 5 to 10 years, and then maybe at a certain point, you are going to start to feel comfortable shaving off a little bit of profits along the way, but if you are buying something like $1 per day (and then maybe you just decide to increase that to $2 per day or $5 per day.. and then maybe after a while, you look at the size of your BTC stash, and you start to consider that you have accumulated a good sized amount and... but then I would also speculate that you would want to be careful about all of that value that took you so long to build up, little by little, and thanks to the price appreciation of BTC, too (which surely is not guaranteed, either).
9542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2020, 02:16:45 AM
My little fishy seems to have swum in to some cold water  Roll Eyes

Not good.  Angry

You better warm up such "lil fishy" or take some drugs at ur age (I mean get dee lil fishy to take some drugs).

Maybe you could get jbreher to help you out...? #nohomo.



We’re certainly having to be far more patient this time around, compared to previous bull runs. I’m not the most patient person IRL but when it comes to The Corn, I have developed over the years an unfathomably strong ability to patience-HODL.

If you can develop a similarly strength, it seems guaranteed that the rewards will be immense. It’s just a matter of time. More specifically, how long can you remain patient? That variable will determine the degree to which btc will reward you. How big a reward you need is up to you.

That was my thought for the day while out for a run and microdosing

Having personally lived through 2014/2015 and 2016, I feel way more relieved this time around as compared with that phase.

Sure, we had our lil Covid correction of March12 - but other than that, we have had some stupendous rebounds - including 3.5x price appreciation April to June 2019.. .Holy fucking shit.. never got anything like that in 2015.  On October 25, 2019, we also got a $3,000 price bump in 12 hours from $7,200 to $10,300.. which felt good man...   

I just don't feel that this particular situation has been as grueling, and for some reason, it seems as if the BTC price could have gone lower or stayed lower for longer, and it did not.

I just cannot consider this particular time around to have been grueling, so far, and sure, I would like some alt coins to get purged a bit more, but does not really seem to be happening, and I am not really sure if such purging is necessary.. I will be o.k. either way.. .
9543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2020, 01:51:00 AM
You would think an MIT grad and subsequent computer simulations modeler would've understood Bitcoin back in 2013.

I'm no MIT grad and I got it almost immediately back then.

Hell within a few days of research, I completely understood how groundbreaking a breakthrough it was, and how it would fundamentally change the financial world.

While that all makes sense, one must first actually stick their head in the rabbit hole before one can start to understand.

edit: 'tis one of my regrets that I did not give the rabbit hole more than a cursory glance at first sight. Oh well. C'est la guerre.

Huh, jbreher?

What's your rabbit hole story?  You may have said.  I cannot remember specifics.

You did not start buying BTC right away?  At least small amounts?  You may have sold too many too soon.  I think that i heard you reveal something like that, previously.

I have probably been interacting with you since mid-to-late 2014.. perhaps early 2015, and seems that you had accumulated some BTC in Bitcoin's pre-2013 era.

Sure, maybe a lot of us do not accumulate as many BTC as we retroactively conclude that we should have, and of course, June 2011 would have given you a whole year to accumulate single digit BTC and then a bit more than another 1/2 year to acquire BTC in the teens (below $20).

So, sure, there could have been some selling too much too soon (to the extent that you acquired very many).  

Another problem that seems to have been present in those early days would have been feeling comfortable with locations to buy, and by the time I got in late 2013, Coinbase had been decently established and in operation for a bit over a year from what I can see from my research..  So, Coinbase was pretty easy for me, even though they had buy limits, I don't recall running too heavily up against those limits, for some reason (although the first 30 days or so was the worst, while they were validating my account).
 Anyhow, the introduction of exchanges like Coinbase, and then Circle in 2014 and Gemini in 2015 (and sure some other exchanges, depending on location, too) did seem to help some peeps onboarding quite a bit easier in those early days of uncertainty regarding just how to safely to get a hold of some little fiends.

Some of us are well into the divestment phase.  

Probably one of the first times that you mentioned that mostly "divestment phase" perspective of yourself.   Shocked Shocked

Could be one of the reasons that you seem to have a decent amount of relative valuing of dollars rather than bitcoin?  Can't completely blame you for that without knowing many mOAR details.

On the other hand, such a purported status would not seem to justify your seeming tendency to have been spending many years gambling with long shot bcash nonsenses.

But, hey, many of us retain some amounts of internal contradictions in order to stay "interesting."  

Likely, I presuming that many of us are also familiar with that expression about consistency and hobgoblins.  Wink

The confirmed science and math that Satoshi didn't understand has to do with how poorly this system functions as a currency. We tried it for a few years. It doesn't work. It's only a bad speculative vehicle, which now people realize and have been dumping for 4 years. The project failed. Neat idea, but fractional reserve banking is clearly better based on all proven and confirmed science and math. I'm glad Satoshi tried this out, but now we know it doesn't work and we can go back to the way things are proven to work best.

Too bad Satoshi wasn't a smart guy like Craig Wright.

To be fair, for the entire interval of satoshi's public involvement, transaction volume never came anywhere near the (relatively very high level for the time) blocksize cap that he enacted under prodding from his most significant collaborator.

Plus, he explicitly explained exactly how trivial it would be to increase said blocksize cap such that transaction volume was never artificially throttled. Extending to exemplary code. To the eventual exasperation of those of us who would like the system to exceed such exceedingly tiny limits. As reliance on such economicallly braindead external exigencies is extreme folly.

Those appeal to authority (attempted) BIG block arguments should be recognized as long rejected in terms of the costs of BIG blocks outweigh much if any benefits that could be derived from such BIG blocks, even if there were supposed benefits to such seemingly nonsensical and ongoing persistent disingenuous claims.

In other words, pretty much long settled that BIG blocks are not the way to go, whether we are talking about propagation times or inclusiveness of "little people."

I think that BIG blockers continue to persist with such nonsense arguments is that they are trying to preserve value in their bcash bags and justify any further pumpenings of either of those crap coins, to the extent that there are anyone willing to pump them (or to get retail interested in unwittingly supporting such scams).
9544  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Nobody notices! on: September 18, 2020, 01:10:41 AM

So long as nullius pleases nullius, then who gives any shits?

Oh yeah, i forgots mi lil selfie about dee off-springenings.

Oops.  Embarrassed

If Apple and Microsoft announce a long term holding position in BTC

Along with Samsung ,AMD and Nvidia.

500k a coin could happen.

Something to dream about.

Grin you forgot to add Berkshire Hathaway
And I'm not sarcastic.
They've just stepped into gold at least indirectly: 560M$ or something like that ( https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-undergoes-a-conversion-on-gold-should-you-follow-him-2020-08-17 ).

A similarly sized position in BTC is not out of the question, and apart from mechanical market effects, it would certainly have huge "marketing" consequences when it gets disclosed at the end of the quarter.

Would be the smarter move, but who said that Warren Buffet is smart?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 09:23:55 PM
I know money does not buy happiness.  In fact it sort of seems like it might challenge it, lol.  But it *DOES* allow one to stop being a slave making someone else money.

money buys convenience and time (as in time to gauge the situation and plan accordingly..) and sometimes health. but happiness is where you find it and mainly a state of mind,. ive been poor and happy. well not poor as in starving to the point of deaths door but poor to the point where i did wonder what the next meal would consist of and when it would happen.. that is the suck im the 1st to admit.

anyway sorry to hear about that. i wont pull the "dont worry youll be fine" bit; thats an insult. but hang in there, we coiners have the advantage, we just need to ride it out a bit more.  doesnt mean its easy in the now though or that it will be guaranteed. just better odds than the nocoiners have.

Well, yes.

Sometimes we do just need to plod along in the here and now.   There was one point in my life that I had hung a goal on my bedpost, and my idea was to look at that goal every day and to make sure that every day I was doing something to make progress towards that goal.  The early stages of my engaging in that goal oriented behavior was to help me to go to university and to get through university - but surely, these days there are a lot of people who believe that university is not necessary - and surely for some people they might not need university, and other people may be helped by university... at least, helping them to be able to help themselves.  I am not proclaiming to have been the most productive in the world, but sometimes we can toil day by day and attempt to make progress little by little.. towards whatever goal(s) we make for ourselves (individually chosen, of course).
9546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 09:05:31 PM
Race to 12800 continues...



Really hope that 2020 top tops the 2019 top... still have 3.5 months for that.

Now Phil_S, if you had started each of those lines at the same place, on your nearly 2 year trajectory, you would likely see a bit of a different visual - not that I am suggesting that January of 2019 would be a good starting point (in terms of how representative, such starting point would be).

Here is an approximation of a chart that goes back 2 years and each starts at the same place.   

However, i do believe that anywhere between mid-2016 and September 2017 would, more or less, serve as a relatively fair starting point to start them each out at the same place and then to show percentage changes in each of them... from that point to present.  Correlated, or no?  I don't think so.

Here is an approximation of a chart that goes back 4 years and each starts at the same place.   

Another good starting point might be anywhere in 2012  - or even 2013 (though mid 2013 would probably be more representative than the March /April 2013 price peak.

Here is an approximation of a chart that goes back 8 years and each starts at the same place.   

Do you notice a pattern?

The further that you go back with the data, the more it appears that they lines are diverging from one another... even though they might look like they line up on shorter time horizons.

Sure, some peeps are going to want to argue that any of the starting points for measuring would be unfair, and part of the point is that bitcoin remains a fucking unfair investment.  Bitcoin remains an asymmetric bet that, so far, has been paying off quite stupendously for those who have been adventurous enough to create a plan, start to execute such plan and to stick with it, and in that regard, king daddy shows little to no signs that such asymmetric bet is going to stop or to slow down in its tendency to pay off for those with patience, willingness to act and to stick to a plan while maybe at the same time able to look at how the longer terms play out.   

In fact, to me, there seems to be a bit of a coiling going on currently in bitcoinlandia... Can you see it?  Can you see it?
 
I understand that maybe there can be some frustrations in showing BTC comparative data for longer periods of time because there seems to be a tendency that the price movements on the BTC part of the chart shows a lot of movements, and the equities and the gold portions have tendencies to remain relatively flat and to get dwarfed by BTC with the passage of time.

Sure those other assets, such as gold and equities are tending to trend upwards, but still... dwarfed,** right?

**Dwarfed means that you can barely see the equities and gold portions of the chart relative to the BTC portion.


What does all of this mean?  hm?



Coiling?  Correlated?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9547  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Investing 1$ every day in bitcoin over the last five years on: September 17, 2020, 08:08:09 PM
Personally, I believe that attempting to invest $10 per week into bitcoin would be much more of a practical idea than investing $1 per day in terms of fees, attempting to be a bit more pragmatic about the whole situation of managing your time and perhaps trying to strategize, learn and frontload the BTC investment by going above and beyond the minimum $1 per day psychological goal that initially gets set.   I am not poo pooing the idea of making sure to achieve an average of $1 per day, but a wee bit of a supplement to that idea.

Let me attempt to explain.

Of course, part of the ease of the suggestion of investing $1 per day is that it allows a bit of a speculation that a large number of people (even poor people) are going to be able to handle $1 per day, and likely would be able to invest $1 per day without even missing that $1 per day, even if s/he comes from a relatively poor location. 

Therefore, I completely agree with the concept that almost anyone should be able to get to a point to be able get their finances in order to such a degree that they are able to average invest $1 per day into bitcoin and to maintain his/her standard of living (I recognize that there are exceptions to this idea too, in terms of really impoverished people who are NOT able to save anything and also who are considerably in debt or they have not figured out ways that they can assure that their income is greater than their expenses - that would allow to be able to save).

Part of the problem continues to be that a dollar is hardly even worth anything (even though it does add up on a daily basis).  The dollar has been going down in value forever.
 Sure, going down in value is a kind of philosophical way that money had been created (or at least used in modern times) (although relatively speaking the dollar has held its value quite a bit better than a considerable number of other fiat currencies), the dollar continues to go down in value and it is almost inevitably going to continue to go down in value. 

In my thinking, it seems much better to attempt to manage a bit of a higher amount (not just $7 per week, but $10 per week - a nice round number that gives some extra learning cushion to both make sure to invest an average of a dollar per day and to learn along the way how to attempt to satisfy gambling desires and/or self constraint with the extra budget). 

Of course, many of us likely recognize some practicality difficulties with unbanked or quasi-unbanked people is that they might have some difficulties finding ways to actually accomplish small daily or weekly investment amounts.  They have to find a way to do it.  Some kind of an exchange, so it could be quite possible that they might need to establish some kind of an account and then deposit some kind of higher amount, such as $100 and then to just draw from that amount on a daily or preferably weekly basis in order to achieve their investment goals and then replenish the account from time to time (and maybe even withdrawing some of the value from time to time, too in order to learn how to manage their private keys rather than keeping their coins on an exchange that might exit scam them).

Of course, I personally like the idea of a minimum investment timeline that is at least 4 years, which is the time of the halvening periods in bitcoin, and of course, a bit of a longer of an investment timeline that is anywhere between 5-10 years or even longer would be even better - while, of course, attempting to preserve a vast amount of discretionary aspects and control for the individual to override his/her prior decision to invest by choosing to liquidate at any time that s/he wants to; however, part of the discipline of investing is to make sure and to ensure that the investor gets his/her financial house in order before s/he is even able to invest. 

For anyone investing, such investing goals should create an incentive to organize ones finances, and such organizing of ones own finances is likely empowering in and of itself.  Once your finances are in order and you are able to assure yourself that you are able to invest $1 per day or $10 per week or whatever happens to be your chosen amount, then if any emergency comes about, you should have already made a plan to ensure that you have funds and resources that you can draw from somewhere else, and you should not have to draw from your bitcoin investment, even if you run into an emergency.  The only time that you should draw from your bitcoin investment would be at a time that is completely of your own choosing - rather than NOT being adequately prepared for an emergency.

By the way, many of us should appreciate that emergencies are almost inevitable, and emergencies become even more inevitable if your finances are not adequately in order before investing in anything, whether bitcoin or other investments.  So, making sure that your cash flow and finances are in order remains a very important thing to accomplish before investing in bitcoin or anything else.

So, we can see from the DCAbtc website that a $1 per day DCA for the past 5 years did not look very different from a $10 per week DCA for the past 5 years.

You can see from the graphs, that both of those approaches would have completely outperformed gold and the stock market during that period. 

$1 per day produced the accumulation of 1.35 BTC and achieved a 661% (about 6.6x returns)

$10 per week produced the accumulation of 1.95 BTC and achieved a 669% (about 6.7x returns)

I am suggesting that the $10 per week provides more cushion - because there could be ways to just invest $7 per week no matter what, and then to attempt to be strategic with the remaining $3 by choosing either to invest that $3 right way or to carry over the $3 to subsequent weeks - and in that regard, developing a bit of an extra cash reserve that could be used for buying on dips. 

So, for example, maybe every week you would decide that you are going to buy your BTC on a certain day of the week (some services will allow you to accomplish that automatically, or you can manually perform such BTC buy every week, if you were to choose), and you want to kind of watch the BTC price in order to strategically buy some more with the extra $3 per week that is in your budget, and maybe after 4-6 weeks you have not used the extra $3 per week to buy BTC, and you end up having an extra $12 to $18 that you can strategically attempt to buy BTC with at a later date, if a BTC price dip were to come.. or for some other reason that you had used that money as a kind of way to attempt to monitor the BTC price movements and attempt to learn about such movements and to learn about yourself, which could take several years to get some ideas about how to feel more comfortable managing the base portion that is invested every week no matter what and the other portion of your value that is attempted to buy BTC on dips - or some other strategic approach to use with the extra amount that you had determined is in your budget.
9548  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Ranking up is possible! 2900 Merits earned in less than 12 months!My 11 Hints! on: September 17, 2020, 05:07:41 PM
Everything is possible if you can change your way, every member wants to get lot of merit in the same time to get a higher chance accepted in good campaign. But, before do that you can try in another way to bring something. When I just have 10 merit i think its hard for me to get 1000 merit, but it's wrong.
How long did you spend to crawl from 10 merit to 1133 merit? From which rank did you start?

Mostly I get merit from my post when I'm not joining in the campaign, focus to become an active member and join in several discussion and creating a thread. It will better for me to spent time to search a new topic when I don't think about posts count. I remember, Fillipone is one of member who also not using a signature before, he just doing about bringing some good content and educate member here. And see what happen now, he is become one of limited member who accepted in Chipmixer campaign. Good luck for you, and be your self, let merit come to you without asking/thinking  member giving you a merit.
It blows my mind!
This info changes my mind and I will try to erase my bone with merit in my mind. My mind should be free to have better brain when I type my post.

Of course, I cheated because I had already reached my current rank before the merit system was implemented on January 24, 2018.

Nonetheless, I recall beginning my participation in the forum, and for a very long time, several months, members did not really respond to my posts or even acknowledge them, but after a while other members get to know you and they start to respond to your posts, as long as you are posting about areas that are of interest to you and to them. 

So, if you participate in threads that are interesting to you (and you do not have to start your own thread because there are plenty of threads out there), then the passion or interest that you have is likely to come out through your posts (of course, I am not Italian, so I could possibly be lacking a little bit in levels of passion... .Actually I know that I am, relatively speaking....   Wink #nohomo to all of the passionate italians out there). Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

By the way, I know that fillippone starts a lot of threads, so I am not really bashing the idea of starting threads, because sometimes if you are really putting a topic together in a way that had not seemed to have been done in other threads, then there surely can be some forum value to that, so the overwhelming majority of fillippone's threads do seem to be contributing value rather than merely seeking merits (not that there is anything wrong with attempting to both contribute and seek merits).

So largely what I am trying to say is that I agree with the concept of posting about what you love and without really any greed except for the greed of learning and sharing information, and likely the merits will follow - even though there are going to be times that you might feel that you are posting quality posts, but no one really appreciates the contents of your posts.  Don't take it personally, because sometime it just takes time for the recognition of your contributions, and if you are making those contributions out of your own passion to contribute, then you should not really be personally bothered if sometimes you are not receiving very many merits in spite of the efforts that you feel that you are putting into authoring your posts.
9549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 02:54:31 AM

What is your fuck you level that you would need?  $6million, like Biodom?


er, it is what you calculated/implied from the $150k/year to "live OK in my area" that I provided.
It is just a matter of living in our city, not that i spend too much on nonsense.
I am sure that I know of a few places where I can live very well on a quarter of this, but why fantasizing about "fu status" and only talking about "fu" in some cheaper country and/or smaller cities and or rural areas?

I'll up the ante and say that, actually, 250K/year is more like it (for "fu") or $7.5mil if it is realistic or even possible to live 30 years more.
If 40 years, then it is $10mil, lol.

You are all over the place, Biodom.

It's like you are talking ur lil selfie out of attempting to make a potentially realistic plan.  It's not like you cannot tweak the plan later or even change some of you parameters like you suggested, and I would think that by the time you get to fuck you status, you have pretty decent ideas regarding how much you need and areas in which you feel comfortable tweaking, as needed.

hehe..@JJG is playing it like Marsellius Wallace:
Quote
You see, this profession [btc hodlers, I guess] is filled to the brim with unrealistic motherfuckers.

I am definitely one of them... UMF.

Hahahaha

At some point, you may get your seemingly intentional whishy-washiness slapped into reality. #nohomo.  


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Of course, in the WO, a variety of options continue to exist, too.

We (the royal we of course) are all about options in these here parts.   Tongue

Instead of a slap, for example, king daddy could propel a steel rod by a train or a rocket into nether region parts that are usually only in the vicinity of titanium plates.  Wink  again, #nohomo - emphasized.
9550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 01:34:25 AM
WO Recap without any bias...
[...]
-Lambie bambie is alive.
[...]
-JJG going off topic - keywords; Dip, Stack, DCA, Buy order, But, If, likely-


- Good to see we still got some good old fashion FUD bimbo hanging around. Maybe she bought some coin now she feeling confident. Smiley

- I often wonder if JiJiGi ... is some iLLuminati bullsh!t cryptic singer of encrypted text in his long tedious messages. And when he actually writes short stuff he actually goes off-topic from his personal agenda of speaking to the masses of his lodge. Smiley Cheesy Cheesy

Seems that you are thinking too much, savetherainforest.

Must suck to be you, no?


What is your fuck you level that you would need?  $6million, like Biodom?


er, it is what you calculated/implied from the $150k/year to "live OK in my area" that I provided.
It is just a matter of living in our city, not that i spend too much on nonsense.
I am sure that I know of a few places where I can live very well on a quarter of this, but why fantasizing about "fu status" and only talking about "fu" in some cheaper country and/or smaller cities and or rural areas?

I'll up the ante and say that, actually, 250K/year is more like it (for "fu") or $7.5mil if it is realistic or even possible to live 30 years more.
If 40 years, then it is $10mil, lol.

You are all over the place, Biodom.

It's like you are talking ur lil selfie out of attempting to make a potentially realistic plan.  It's not like you cannot tweak the plan later or even change some of you parameters like you suggested, and I would think that by the time you get to fuck you status, you have pretty decent ideas regarding how much you need and areas in which you feel comfortable tweaking, as needed.
9551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 01:12:48 AM
Yeah I also heard about it (or rather read something on the internet) early on but I didn't open that link, or maybe I opened the tab but saved it for later... When I finally got to it it was about 350$, still cheap, however I was poor back then, on benefits in fact, so not ideal to buy a bag.

Depending on where the price is going in the next decade or two, I could still have a life changing amount.

Of course for Saylor it's not life changing either way.

edit : the worst part is that from my teen years end of the 1990s up to 2013 I was running a couple of CPUs and GPUs on SETI@home, and when at school I installed that on dozens of computers... Not that I regret doing SETI, it's still what led me to mining, but what I was doing was so close to mining already !

One thing about bitcoin continues to be its asymmetric bet angle, and even when people know about bitcoin, frequently, they do not appreciate the asymmetric bet angle.. .

Which largely means that there is no need to break the bank, or to gamble, or to place enormous amounts of value into bitcoin in order to potentially experience life changing amounts - given  a long enough investment time horizon.

So even investing $1,000 in 2015 could have gotten 4 BTC which could be a whole heck of a lot of value to just hang onto and let it play out however it will.

Remember how excited mindrust purportedly was to have had purportedly achieved a 10 BTC balance on the same day that he sold all of them?  10 BTC could be a life changing amount of value, and could have been achieved for a mere $2,500 for a large part of the year in 2015.

My point is not about looking back at could have, would have, should have, but instead to merely get started now, and just invest whatever you can on a regular basis, even if it is a mere $10 per week, or some variation of that.

By the way, $10 per week invested into BTC over the past 6 years would have gotten close to 4 BTC by now.. See this link
9552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 17, 2020, 12:07:55 AM
Humpback Whale = 5000 BTC or more
Whale = 1000 - 5000 BTC
Shark = 500 - 1000 BTC
Dolphin = 100 - 500 BTC
Fish = 50 - 100 BTC
Octopus = 10 - 50 BTC
Crab = 1 - 10 BTC
Shrimp = less then 1 BTC
seems to me that we need new categories.. I am not sure how far down, maybe down to 1 satoshi?

Shrimp = 0.1 < BTC <= 1 BTC
Krill = 0.01 < BTC <= 0.1 BTC
Bacterioplankton = 0 < BTC <= 0.01
Brain eating amoeba = 0 BTC

For now that seems to be adequate, but surely, I am thinking that soon we might need more specificity in the sub .01 BTC arena.

At the moment, .01BTC is still approaching $110, and even now, there are folks with lower BTC balances, and sure in the future, if we do another 10x (to $100k per BTC) or even 100x (to $1 million per BTC), there are likely going to be emerging hierarchies with the sub .01 BTC territory. 

I will concede that we could probably cross that scalability list when getting there, even while considering that at some point in the future, soontm, maybe the whole list will need to be re-thunk?
9553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 11:06:11 PM
Wow... The price seems to have held up really well over 11k even through some pretty heavy selling over the previous hour.  The buyers are definitely there at 11.  Interesting.

Very interesting indeed.



Must be more buyers than sellers.  



I don't know.

Most people think a government ban is the biggest risk to bitcoin. But with MicroStrategy now having a third of it's market cap in bitcoin, do you really think governments will tank stock markets? Risk of ban will get smaller and smaller when more listed companies follow MSTR.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1306119800255639559?s=21

If Apple and Microsoft announce a long term holding position in BTC

Along with Samsung ,AMD and Nvidia.

500k a coin could happen.

Something to dream about.

I am sorry to be such a miserable pleb.  But I really need that to happen.  My job is killing me today.  It is sucking the soul out of me through my ass and grinding it into a fine pulp.  And I have never been a trader, and am probably almost as good at the titanium plates exercise as Bob, and have lived through all the booms and busts, and have very rarely complained.

But I might not be able to make it to the moon.  I can't take much more than this.  I think I am going to either go insane and end up on the news, and in jail or dead, or just in the water under some tall bridge.

I know money does not buy happiness.  In fact it sort of seems like it might challenge it, lol.  But it *DOES* allow one to stop being a slave making someone else money.


What is your fuck you level that you would need?  $6million, like Biodom?

At $500k per coin, you would need 12 coins bare minimum, but recently, I had been suggesting that it is better to use the 200 Week moving average as the calculator for whether you have reached fuck you status.. assuming that you can project what level you need.

The 200 week moving average is moving up pretty quick, it is like $100 to $200 per week, and currently it is at about $6,700.. so that would be good for some peeps with at least 298.5 coins.  I have been using $2 million as a good approximation of fuck you status.. perhaps 10 years ago, $1 million could have been sufficient, but times have changed a bit.

Of course, if we were to go up to $500k quickly, there is no way in hell that the 200 week moving average would catch up very quickly... especially since the 200 week moving average represents approximately a  4 year average (on the weekly candle).

Even if it took 4 years to go from here to $500k, probably the moving average would still be somewhere in the middle, if NOT a bit on the lower side of the middle, so anyhow, I am still currently thinking that giving bitcoin's ongoing volatility and ongoing likelihood to continue to be volatile, we need to use something like the 200 week moving average to figure our bottom - of course, unless we are completely cashing out of BTC, and personally, I do not recommend that kind of nonsense.

I am sorry to be such a miserable pleb.  But I really need that to happen.  My job is killing me today.  It is sucking the soul out of me through my ass and grinding it into a fine pulp.  And I have never been a trader, and am probably almost as good at the titanium plates exercise as Bob, and have lived through all the booms and busts, and have very rarely complained.

But I might not be able to make it to the moon.  I can't take much more than this.  I think I am going to either go insane and end up on the news, and in jail or dead, or just in the water under some tall bridge.

I know money does not buy happiness.  In fact it sort of seems like it might challenge it, lol.  But it *DOES* allow one to stop being a slave making someone else money.

How much fiat do you need to take out during the expected parabolic stage next year?

$2,000,000 - $3,000,000?

Money doesn’t buy happiness but it gives you options. Being broke doesn’t make you happy either.

That is a decently BIG question.  Personally, I would expect that the amount that any of us might take out should not exceed what we would need within the next 3-4 years, and that would be extreme... Of course, if there is some kind of BIG expense item, then that would end up skewing the amount with a lump sum amount too.. and I suppose that is precalculated to be a reasonable amount of withdrawal.   

Personally, I would be willing to keep more in bitcoin and maybe if nervous take out 2-3 years worth of living expenses rather than a BIGGER chunk.

I have not completely thought about these kinds of withdrawals because my expected strategy was going to continue to be to merely take out between 1-3 months at a time, as needed... but I can see why it might be practical to take out up to two years at a time..

I will have to give some further thoughts to these ideas a bit more when I start to think about withdrawing more.. and sure there is some potential need to think about cashflow considerations for 2-4 years in advance and perhaps longer.. but I am thinking that if the cashflow horizon is 4 years or more, then why not just keep that portion in BTC and let BTC do its thingie-ma-jiggie, whatever that might be, but I am personally thinking that i don't even really feel any need to take out great quantities in this particular upcoming 4-year cycle. 

Will I regret it?  Not sure.  Might be worth some potential tweakening thoughts.
9554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 08:26:32 PM

moonshot 14k by oct 1

and ath soon after.


I thought about this a lot. And i am pretty sure that is going to happen.

Don't tell me that your thoughts are able to predict the future.  I am not going to believe it.    Tongue

[ edited out]

I trust this prediction, @philipma1957
..so that segwit wasn't the end of btc, after all Wink

My take: short term traders will push btc up 40-50% pretty soon with a plan to then switch over to 'another coin' and ride the up wave another 50%. I don't particularly care about this strategy...staying put, but the outlined scenario would likely to happen (either fully or to a degree).

You have a similar outline in your thinkenings.  Shocked

Must be dee true, den.
9555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 07:59:31 PM
Bakkt Tuesday's numbers: Volume: 17 745 BTC ($192.84 million, +61%)  (New ATH)

https://twitter.com/BakktBot/status/1306115788995260424

Remember the dissapointment of the first day with volume of several bitcoins? Well, this escalated quite fast to the levels of the biggest exchanges! And this is still unnoticed among the other 'hot' news about defi and microshares. Defi is having currently around 100 000BTC locked into smart contracts and rising of course. More and more serious investors and companies are accumulating bitcoins causing a shortage on the spot exchanges. Good times are coming and the bears know it! Of course they will fight desperately between 10K and 20K to be able to buy cheap coins as long as possible. But when the ATH is breached, the real FOMO will start. Then the SEC morons like Jay Clayton will realise that invetstors do not need their approval to invest in Bitcoin. The obstacles they've built are not applied for Bitcoin. Peeps like Clayton and Mnuchin are bastards of the fiat adultery, while we are the true heirs of the only asset that will survive and get stronger with time.

So, are there any knife catchers left trying to gain from 5 min 1-2% drops? They must be completely blinded and not being able to see the big picture. It is funny how such plankton is coming here to boast with a leverage short profit. It is like a child boasting with his 2+2=4 calculation to a professor who invented a new branch in math. I don't know to laugh or to pity such n00bs. Especially, considering that 90% of the Binance trades are of sums below 0.01 BTC. And even if they make a profit on the first trade, the second will  be a loss to devour both their profit and their investment. Patetik and Haaalerius!

Best post I’ve seen in days, love it. The bold bit really made me genuinely laugh, it reminds me of this -

Humpback Whale = 5000 BTC or more
Whale = 1000 - 5000 BTC
Shark = 500 - 1000 BTC
Dolphin = 100 - 500 BTC
Fish = 50 - 100 BTC
Octopus = 10 - 50 BTC
Crab = 1 - 10 BTC
Shrimp = less then 1 BTC
https://www.deeponion.org/community/threads/what-kind-of-bitcoin-holder-are-you.9129/%3famp=1510623395




Where my shrimps at?

Here's a working thread:
https://deeponion.org/community/threads/what-kind-of-bitcoin-holder-are-you.9129/

That's a November 2017 thread - and seems to me that we need new categories.. I am not sure how far down, maybe down to 1 satoshi?

And, crabs, octopussies and fishes are likely to be quite a BIG category and with decent difficulties to acquire for normies in the coming years (if NOT already difficult to acquire in current times, as I type for those who are just hearing about king daddy)
9556  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: September 16, 2020, 07:27:05 PM
<snip>

Bitcoin is at its infancy stage and anyone who gets in now still counts as an early adopter, and that is great timing.

Going back a couple of months from before the halving, they would have got a good deal, and a couple of more months back a better deal (maybe, my recollection of the chart is a bit rusty) - In a couple months time they could yet get a better deal. While everyone would want to profit more and timing is very important in investing, the price variation was not quite much and they could have been tired of hesitating on hitting the buy switch - Get In when you get It

And you are right, it is quite impressive and great promotion. Bitcoin has been trending on Twitter intermittently in my location for a while now.

I just heard Michael Saylor interviewed on Pompliano's podcast  (episode just released today and interview seems to be just done), and Saylor really describes his recent contemplations and calculations in regards to bitcoin (including some of his past business practices that led him up to being receptive to bitcoin), and really he had disclosed that he had only really been looking into BTC for about 1 year (since July 2019) after his company had sold the Voice domain name, and I am not sure whether Saylor personally invested in BTC or just got his company "onboard" the BTC train.

Saylor does describe a bit of a process of his own personal learning, his efforts at teaching his board members (and regularly discussing the matter with board members) and then to get the systems in place for their company in order that his company could pull the "buy bitcoin" trigger that seems to take a number of months to get those systems in place.

Saylor suggests that it could take maybe 6 months for a streamlined company to be able to get these kinds of systems in place in order to be able to buy bitcoin, as compared with an individual that could act in 1 month or so ... and presumably some companies likely have more bureaucratic obstacles too, but he expects more companies to follow down the Buy / (hedge in BTC) path.
9557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip! on: September 16, 2020, 07:12:51 PM
Buying every dip is easy to say, but difficult to identify the dip (for me at least!)

Every time the price of bitcoin drops I am afraid of the point that it is going to stop or it will be ongoing for a long time. Looking at charts and trying to make my TA sometimes prove me wrong!

Same problem mate. I already knew the idea of buying in dip however, I can't decide when to do it because I have some thought that what if it goes down a bit more that would really make me regret my decision. I am no expert in this field that is why sometimes I doubt my analysis. But I do always monitor how the market chart behave and fortunately, I am making a good job I think.


Because we plebs are thinking in the short term. Buying the dip also requires HODLing, dollar-cost-averaging, AND a very low time preference.

Plus would it truly matter if you bought Bitcoin at $3,000, $5,000, or $10,000 when it's done with its path to a 6-digit price discovery?



Largely when the price rise works out, the exact purchase price is not going to matter too much, and sometimes fence sitters are toiling over whether BTC prices might drop a few hundred or even $1,000 in terms of their buying threshold.

I recall sharing similar kinds of posts in 2014/2015/2016 when the BTC price had fluctuations that were all over in the triple digits - spending a lot of time bouncing largely between $250 and $700 during that timeframe - and surely, when we zoom out a bit, any of those BTC prices for that whole period seem like a god-damned bargain - whether buying at the high, the low or the middle.. just like you suggest, Wind_FURY.

By the way, on the short term, it may have felt really stressful to have bought a shitload of BTC in early 2014 for around $700 (let's say that you transferred a large portion of your investment portfolio into BTC that amounted to $35k or so, and so you acquired 50 BTC with that money) and then to sit on your hands for those whole three years while BTC prices were mostly below $700.

At the same time, costs per BTC could have been brought down somewhat by continuing to dollar cost average through the subsequent three years of 2014-2015, and perhaps even a modest $100 per month ($3,600) could have fairly easily added another 10 BTC onto the stash, so instead of crying that you bought too high, you actively stuck with your investment with a reasonable amount and brought down your cost per BTC from $700 each to $643 each ($35k + $3,600 = $38,600/60 BTC)..


Of course, a more aggressive DCA practice would have brought down the cost per BTC more, so for example if you had the inclination to lump sum $35k, and that was only intended to use half of your overall budget (on lump sum investing), but then you also planned to spread out the other 50%  of the amount that you intended to invest $36k over the next 36 months (which would be $1,000 per month), and you were able to increase your BTC stash by 100 BTC (rather than 10 BTC) then your average per BTC at the end of that period would have been ($35k + $36,000 = $71,000/150 BTC) = $473 per BTC. 

Sure currently at $11k per BTC, it may not make a real BIG difference if your cost per BTC was $700 each or $473 each, but still there are ways to have ongoing BTC accumulation practices that will not necessarily break you during the process of accumulating BTC but they will add up during time - even if you do not have any lump sum amount that you can start out investing, you can merely start with investing what you can and letting the value add up over time - even if the amount that you have to work with is only $10 per week.  Still adds up over time, and 5 to 10 years later, the amount of BTC (or sats) that you would have stashed away will likely seem like BIG numbers, even if the amounts did not seem like a lot at the time that you were stacking sats.

In early 2015 and even into 2016, I had entered into some cashflow issues that caused me inabilities to buy BTC during quite a bit of that time, even when the BTC price was lower than the amounts that i had paid in 2014 - but I recall some times in 2015, that I would come across an extra $100 or $200, and I would put half of that into my cash reserves and the other half would go into buying BTC.  So if the BTC price was around $250 during a lot of the time in 2015, I would either purchase $50 (.2 BTC) or $100 (.4 BTC) in BTC (that's half of my extra cashflow0.  I even made those kinds of purchases (of stashing away part of the cash and buying BTC with the other part of the cash) with smaller amounts of extra cashflow value when I had extra cashflow that would come in of $10/$5 (.02 BTC) or $20/$10 (.04 BTC).  Seems like a lot of BTC to accumulate now, but at the time, it just seemed like I was just adding piddly amounts of BTC to my BTC stash that might not even go anywhere (that is taking the chance that the ongoing incremental investment might go down rather than up).  Also, a lot of people like to think in terms of Satoshis, too, so if you are stacking away thousands or even hundreds of thousands of satoshis, it can start to feel like a lot after a while to have accumulated multiple millions of satoshis, and even reaching in the billions for some (which would be 10 more than BTC).
9558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 05:45:58 AM
MicroStrategy did it again. they bought another 14k btc for $175mil.

they own 38250 btc now.

Michael Saylor is savage.

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1305850568531947520?s=21

My only question is why did they wait this long? Why weren't they buying this amount of bitcoin at a fraction of today's price back in 2013? Surely they knew about it then, they are an IT company.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly.

At one time you could have those coins for the price of 8 pizzas, and have a piece left for next morning...

Better late than never, though. Also applies to many of us, unfortunately.

It does seem a bit much, and perhaps sudden, but Saylor did seem  to have a change of heart (and thinking) over the years, and probably the money printer go bbbbbrrrrrr response to the virus had a pretty BIG impact on his thinking - but yeah, you would have thought that he would have figured it out sooner.

Also, even if Saylor may have been investing some of his personal assets in bitcoin on a more moderate and earlier basis, there may have been some reservations in terms of getting the company on board and making sure that the major investors were on board with such a bold approach, including a bold accompanying statement that went along with the first purchase in August.
9559  Economy / Reputation / Re: [Interviews] with Bitcointalk members - peloso on: September 16, 2020, 03:09:16 AM
Feel free to write your questions and suggestions, for all the interviews I will add links in this post.
When will the interview be with suchmoon? Let him dispel rumors that he is a Chinese communist
It's better to ask suchmoon Smiley

Just to make it clear - zasad@ asked me (and I appreciate that) but I refused, one of the reasons being assholes like korner and Quickseller who will dip anything I say into Grade A bullshit and smear it all over the forum. Besides I'm utterly boring and don't really have anything of any public interest to share.

Fuck those diptwat wannabe fans of yours, korner (whoever that is?) and Quickseller.

Why let trolls, stalkers or fans control your forum involvement - or even assert that lametwats have any kind of substantive and meaningful effect upon you?  - even quickseller participated herein... It's a thing...

I don't believe it... must be a different reason... real reason.. you are a party poop!!!!!!    Tongue

By the way, you need not tell the truth in these responses.  You could make shit up that is somewhat loosely connected to reality, since we are all avatars on the interwebs, anyhow.  AmiNOTrite?

In essence, this is my lame-ass way (#nohomo) of attempting to cajole you into some kind of participation, herein.. it is good for the community, and of course, we know that you know how to write and it's not like we are suggesting that you perform an interpretive dance, that might not be your skillset, perhaps? and sure, be brief like peloso if you like, but ultimately even brevity (which of course does not tend to be one of my skillsets) can be a form of creativity.




all you could come up with

To be fair to my dear friend ("/s" - for humourless pricks) peloso, it's probably more than you could write in Russian.

Got your little jab in there, though.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 16, 2020, 02:33:23 AM
Chaum did go way off the rails with his previous shitcoin, elixir or something. This would need to be whole rafts better, and it's low on my todo list.

I did listen to that Laura Shin interview between Chaum and Back (that you linked in your earlier post, V8) about a month ago when it first came out, and surely Chaum comes off as a bit disgruntled, self-absorbed and just emotionally unstable - maybe in spite of some of his prior contributions to cryptography, he just seems to want to get way the fuck more credit than he likely deserves (not saying that I even understand half the shit, but still - lack of graciousness can sometimes be a bit irritating and draining).

I recall even parts of the interview that Chaum was going to get off the interview because he did not feel that he was being treated fairly... blah blah blah.. and then he stayed on because both shin and back stayed sufficiently non confrontational and even giving chaum credit from time to time..

And, yeah, Chaum has turned into a bit of a shitcoiner, fails and refuses to give bitcoin proper credit, and I don't even know if Chaum is merely biased by his other projects or he just fails and refuses to even attempt to be a team player, unless he is getting the amount of credit that he feels that he needs (which is likely more than he deserves - surely not a humble bumble.. even though, granted, he likely continues to be pretty smart about a lot of the technical underpinnings to the extent that he attempts to listen to anyone else).

Based on my parental settings, my router blocked it as porn. 

unusual behavior, my security setting send all porn to my 1,700 tb raid 10 array and then AI tries to sort them into redheads, blonds, number of persons, how many are upside down and other such important parameters.

purely for convince convenience its so hard to search that stuff nowadays.

FTFY

Surely, vapourminer, you are my kind of they.tm   Wink
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