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9641  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2020, 06:01:50 PM
Should have sold as 12k.

And now I should have sold at 10k and also this has passed :-/

Maybe I put in a sellorder at 10k and hope it gets fulfilled if we spike about 10k for a short period again.

sell all your BTC as soon as you can, and then wait for sub $6k... which surely needs to be tested again.

If you are nervous that sub $6k might not be reached, buy half or more of what you had sold at sub $8k.... Sub $8k is a sure thing. Thereafter, just wait out the rest of the testing down to sub $6k.. ... only change your plan if BTC prices go above $14k, then buy back because surely BTC prices will be going up if it is able to break above $14k, but if you are not sure, wait until $16k or so before you actually buy back to be sure that the BTC prices are really going to go up.

Some people play it really safe, and they are going to be waiting until $20k or maybe a wee bit above $20k to buy back because they want to make sure that BTC is going to be able to get past its previous ATH... so there is that strategic angle, too.  You are on the right track, mike4001_.   Wink




By the way, smart money does not sell after an 18% BTC dip (approximately, where we are at now in the lower $10ks upper $9.9ks), instead they are buying during dip prices (even lesser dips than our current one), and if the BTC price goes lower, smart money buys more.  The above suggestion is meant for dumb money like mike4001_ and his ilk to get out of BTC, and may as well get out now rather than their continuing to suffer in BTC, right?... and to facilitate their beliefs that BTC must conform to mature market analysis (in other words the belief that quite a few folks want to believe that BTC is currently in a bubble), so in that regard, they should just wait for BTC prices to drop to a sufficiently comfortable place that will show that BTC performs more like a mature asset class, and smarter money actually realizes that such BTC price drop may well not happen - especially recognizing that BTC is not a mature asset.. and there is an actual preference to almost always be preparing for UPpity.  Ultimately, dumb money, such as mike4001_ ends up buying BTC back in at $17k (right before BTC prices drop to $13k and they sell again for another loss), and they are never endingly selling BTC at the bottom and buying the top while complaining that BTC is too volatile, manipulated, and way too unpredictable.. because "in theory" it should be trending down.... blah blah blah.  At some point, such dumb money might learn, but maybe they need to be humbled a bit, and we might see them back and having had become educated and humbled in a few years, perhaps?
9642  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2020, 07:32:03 AM
You learned correctly. Language is plastic (ask JJG about that one). Rules change.

You are suggesting that I twist language to my advantage in some kinds of ways?  

Absolutely. You have absolutely misused words to mean something quite opposed to their actual meaning, and when called out on it, you have used the 'words mean exactly what I want them to mean whenever I want them to mean that' defense.

Does not come off as a bad thing.... especially in terms of interacting with you.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Although, truth be told, it was not "to your advantage", as it was an egregious transparent act of disingenuosity ( <- alas - probably not available in the dictionary) fooling nobody, and therefore gaining you no advantage whatsoever.

Most of the time I try to be genuine.. but if I am dealing with trolls, shills or misleading posters, then sometimes I might play a bit harder ball.  Sometimes.


Nothing egregious of late, this is true. But Pepperidge Farm remembers.

I am glad that someone is paying attention.

As, no doubt, do you. Dissemble no further!

No.  I do not remember any such supposed incidents that you are likely just making up.  In any event, I try NOT to ponder over our interactions too much (oh, I am not saying that every single one of our interactions is without meaning, because you have provided some good posts from time to time, rare as that may be - which would cause more likelihood that I would ponder over such posts longer - and remember them longer), but every once in a while, I feel that I need to respond to some of your nonsense, so there is that angle, too.

Have a good day sir bear.    Wink

right we need a day of the week when we are rude to nullius for his lengthy expostulations. the scrolling past is getting tiring

jjg has stfu jjg thursdays, sunday is sacred to the haiku

monday then? today in fact?

stfu nullius

less is more. small is beautiful. concision breeds precision

(you know I love you but)

That's not fair.   Angry Angry Angry

I worked quite a long time on cluttering this thread before I got my own day named after me.

nullius is a relative newbie to the thread, even though I will admit that he has demonstrated quite an ability to give me a great run for my money, even as a late and sporadic entrant...  Cry Cry Cry  sucks to be me, right now.

or just get a room you 2 idk Grin

Cannot rule that one out.

I am thinking that we would probably be too irl scared of each other, though.   Cry
9643  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Long-term thinking: Heirs in perpetuity on: September 07, 2020, 07:19:55 AM
As a matter of thinking differently about goals, I posit that, unless a major expenditure is desired, there should be no “liquidation” phase for any asset with the fundamentals to constitute a long-term investment (as opposed to a short-term speculation).  Given your apparent familiarity with estate planning, you can probably guess why:  A goal of parlaying personal success into the intergenerational accumulation of familial wealth.

Sure it is possible that you could suggest that one of your goals is to pass on all or some of your wealth, but seems to be somewhat unrealistic to suggest that to be any kind of reasonable goal that should motivate the vast majority of regular investors.

Cynical though I am, that is to me a shocking view of most investors.  Has the world really changed so much while I was sleeping?  “Back in the day”, I think, the goal that I stated was a significant motivating factor for most people who were striving to accrue wealth, and even a primary motive for not a few.


You could be correct - but I also attempted to frame my response in such a way that it may not matter so much what the motivation is to accumulate wealth.

On the other hand, I did presume that at some point some kind of withdrawal would start to take place, whether we are referring to a kind of perpetually sustainable withdrawal rate that does not necessitate the touching of the principle or some kind of withdrawal rate that is more aggressive and digs into the principle.

I think that you might be overreading the meaning of my use of the more broader liquidation term... and I will concede that maybe the term "liquidation" does imply depletion of the principle when I did not really mean to suggest liquidation to ONLY have that meaning, even though digging into the principle would not necessarily be a bad goal - especially if there might be some preferences to either live beyond the passive income capabilities of the fund or to realize that passing on too much of the investment value might not be a desired outcome, either.


“I want a better future for my children and grandchildren, and their grandchildren” is unrealistic to expect as a motive for most investors?


Might be a bit much to attempt to quantify that most BTC accumulators are accumulating their wealth for someone else rather than for themselves.

I might be repeating myself but there are a decent number of current wealth management approaches that do not necessarily aim towards passing on wealth as a central objective, even though it could be a side objective.

I would rather focus on what I want rather than attempting to figure out what "most people" might want because I am not sure how far figuring out what most people want might get us in terms of deciding what to do.  Lot's of people end up NOT even managing their finances in such a way that even allows them to get close to what they want anyhow, just in terms of sufficiently satisfying their own needs rather than trying to figure out how much of an estate they are going to be able to pass on.


On the other hand, maybe that explains why the markets are so fucked up:  The types of speculators who seek to Get Rich Quick are not typically long-term thinkers!  Of course, they would not give a hoot about their descendants.  Perhaps they may be fanatical Christians:  They take no thought for the morrow (Matthew 6:34).

You may be correct in regards to the problematic nature of other kinds of long-term thinking and the perverse morality incentives that might come from get rich quick thinking. 


On the other hand, it seem to me that we can attempt to address matters that relate to our own finances without becoming morally perverse.

What is best left to one’s children?  Depreciating fiat currency?  Or a portfolio of gold, real estate, and nowadays, Bitcoin?  (I don’t consider stocks to be a “long-term” investment, unless either it is a large share of a privately held company under management personally known and trusted, or you have a Warren Buffet strategy with commensurate capital.)

Sure if you put the assets in a kind of trust, then the you have chosen the various allocations, but if you give the assets to the kids outright, then as soon as they get control of the asset, they can choose to reallocate into whatever kind of asset that they prefer, including if they want to convert such assets into hookers, lambos and blow.  Their choice.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Of course, such planning must assure insofar as practicable that one’s heirs are of a character to grow the wealth and pass it on, rather than irresponsibly dissipating it.  Now, there is a discussion which could delve deeply into the context of the rule against perpetuities—among many other topics:  The legal terms of devises cannot substitute for sound breeding and upraising.

So, yeah, generally speaking, the rule against perpetuities suggest that you can only create some kind of legal instrument to control your assets and the wealth determinations for the measurement of any life in being plus 21 years.. So you are not going to be able to control how those assets are held forever, and I am NOT even sure if that is a reasonable goal,
(Boldface is Jay’s.)

I know that this will shock the hyper-individualists in the peanut gallery:  As an ethical matter, heirs do not receive bequests as their individual property.  Ethically if not legally, it is collective property held in trust for the family—for posterity, for future generations.

To protest this would be shameful.  There is no such thing as a free lunch.  With every privilege comes a duty.  People who receive wealth from their parents must accept that duty; thus, enjoy it though they may within the spans of their own lives, they must tend it wisely, and ultimately pass down the gifts that they have received.  You can’t have your cake and eat it, too.


Sure there may be ways to pass down property in ways that have those kinds of attachments including inculcating those values into potential heirs, but this seems to be deviating from the original topic that includes considerations of when a person might consider themselves to be in an accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage in terms of their bitcoin.

So, if you personally never want to get to liquidation stage that is your choice.

It may also be your choice to figure out how to reallocate assets that you inherit.

Do you hang onto the gold or do you convert it to bitcoin?  Would converting from gold to bitcoin be unethical?  Perhaps.. likely depends on specifics..


No, heirs don’t have a right to spend their inheritances on “hookers, lambos and blow”.

If it is put directly in your name, then you would likely have that right individually, if it is a trust or if the property is passed as some kind of community property there might be fiduciary duties that disallow spending or consumption of "hookers, lambos and blow"

 If they do choose to do so, at least they should be subject to severe social shaming.  I think that used to be the case, when prodigal heirs were the exception rather than the rule.

I doubt that we can generalize in this regard without knowing more specifics.


Those who insist on having only absolute individual property rights should relieve themselves of this burden by having a solemn talk with their parents, and requesting to be disinherited.  That’s only fair.  Such individualists should earn their own wealth all by themselves, totally alone, and thus free up their parents to re-allocate bequests to their other children, or spend it all on their own pleasures, or bequeath it all to charity, or put it all into gold and then sink the gold to the bottom of the ocean.  It is their individual property right, yes?

I would think that the majority of people are already stuck with trying to figure out how to build their own wealth and also they frequently will either be unsure how much of their family estate is going to be left to them by the time they inherit such estate.

I am not feeling too encumbered by hypothesizing about the lives of the rich and famous because those do not tend to be problems of most individuals - even though some individuals will be more fortunate to have such estate inheritance problems.


That said, I don’t think that laws and legally enforceable terms in wills can help much here.  Perhaps a bit.  

Seems like a bit of a derailment of the original topic and kind of fringe cases to me, anyhow.  Rich people have problems that are good to have.  Many people do not have those particular problems as you seem to be framing them, even though perhaps some might.

For example, once upon a time,

You see.  How you are starting this framing seems to show that we are talking about fringe matters rather than more likely to be common matters.

in some European countries, there were laws that protected familial ownership of the family home.  If the inheritor of the family home tried to sell it outside the family, other potential heirs who were next in line could challenge and prohibit the sale; thus, the family home was effectually inalienable from the family, unless a unanimity of a whole generation should be in folly.

Bitcoin is more liquid than that, but there could be ways to tie down bitcoin, too.

This must be unimaginable to most Americans:

Some americans own property, and some times the property is passed down as community property... frequently those are messy situations.

 There were families who held the same home for centuries.  I do not speak only of the nobility with their familial castles and palaces:  In some parts of Europe, it was not even rare for a family of peasant freeholders or the petite bourgeoisie to hold the same home for ten or twenty generations.  

Fair enough.. but we are talking about bitcoin.  If you want to buy property with your bitcoin and encumber that property in various ways, there may well be instruments that allow you to achieve your objectives.  You may even be able to get an agreement from some life in being to attempt to perpetuate your wishes, perhaps?

I think that most of this broke down during the Twentieth Century, and most of the relevant laws are probably no longer on the books.  It’s a shame.  Those people had excellent social stability.  They were productive and happy.  Children did not rebel against their parents, as seems to be expected nowadays (!).

Does bitcoin play any role in this story, at all?

But such things depend on the living.  

Do you conjecture that bitcoin helps this kind of situation or makes it worse?

Such “hand from beyond the grave” long, complex chains of devises as prohibited by the Rule Against Perpetuities could not instill in prodigal heirs the character that they lacked; and if they did not lack such character, the terms of long-ago wills would only be an unnecessary burden.

I agree that the law is an ass, sometimes, but if you can get some folks to carry on a tradition and even to perpetuate such traditions, then that surely could work for a decently long time.  I don't think anyone is denying that, including yours truly.   Tongue


The point of my post was that the human element is much more important than the legalities.  If you have good kids, you don’t need fancy wills or trusts; but if your kids are

snot-nosed non-appreciative brats

...then no legal instruments can make them behave themselves after you are gone.

Of course, it is up to you to instill those kinds of values.

but hey, I understand that people sometimes want to contribute to some kind of lasting legacy that extends beyond their lives and perhaps touches the lives of many others.

Not just any others:  Their own descendants.  I hope that it is not politically incorrect nowadays to point out that people do and should prefer to benefit their own descendants over arbitrary “others”.  If so, then surely, mankind will go extinct.  I think that Darwin would agree with me:  What creature could long survive, if it did not prefer its own offspring?

You are surely taking this beyond the points that I was making in terms of trying to figure out what the fuck are you going to do in terms of accumulating BTC or to maintain or to liquidate - but seems that you never want to liquidate... and that is your choice, I suppose, if you can get your snot-nosed little descendants to go along with you.

(Of course, people often make bequests to charity, etc.—just as they often give such gifts in their lifetimes.  It is a different motive.  My point is that a bequest to one’s own posterity is very specific, and not just based on a vague notion of touching someone’s life out there.)

My point is that you can attempt to design as much as you want, and I surely cannot answer the extent to which you can get anyone to follow your preferences after you be die.

I suppose that this ran far afield of the original discussion about investments.  

You got that right.  Shocked

Re-reading the above before posting, I hope that it doesn’t come off as too negative; it’s certainly not intended to be argumentative.

I mean we were mostly talking about liquidation as one of the possible stages that any of us might enter into, and your scenario just comes off as personally specific in terms of how you might want to set up situations in which you are not really striving towards any kind of meaningful liquidation... but still my assertion about ways to have passive income, should still potentially apply in those situations, which would be more of a withdrawal aspect rather than depleting the principle value of whatever bitcoin value you had accumulated, hypothetically.

It seems that whenever I start to think that I am too cynical, I find that to the contrary, I am naïve; and that idea that most investors don’t even include intergenerational wealth in their explicit goals is really shocking to me.  

Of course, people do that.  I usually suggest that they aim to spend it all.  People vary in these regards, and none of the answers are wrong.

Lots of people also end up unintentionally leaving too much wealth to heirs because they die way before they expect or they become too decrepit to actually enjoy their wealth because they defer gratification more than they probably should.

Ultimately each person needs decide how they are going to do this and to structure their own plan around how they are going to do it.

We also seem to lean more towards the accumulation stage and also towards the holding onto your wealth stage rather than seriously getting into aspects of the liquidation phase, even though surely any of those topics can be relevant and good to try to make plans in advance.


Perhaps, to some degree, that may be the “ethnic” in me speaking; in some parts of the world, much of what I have said would be commonplace.  But then, as noted above, such thinking used to be commonplace amongst Europeans, too.

I don't think it matters. It is one of the values that you can choose to attempt to put on bitcoin or you can put some other value on bitcoin.  If you think that bitcoin hinders you in that regard, then you can buy property and PMs in order to attempt to create material sentimental values and traditions.

No wonder the world is doomed.  

Seems to me that bitcoin brings some hope because it allows some possible ways that value is not as easily manipulated by the printing of fiat.  Property and gold and other maters have gotten perverted by the printing of money, so maybe bitcoin can help to balance out some of these material value matters more clearly that may also lead to some better abilities to carry out traditional values, too.


Life is cheap, and people have lost all sense of purpose.  They are all short-term thinkers:  

Not everyone has lost sense of purpose, even if we sometimes like to refer to hookers, lambos and blow.


Life is short!

Of course it is.

Well, it’s an important insight, in and of itself...  I’m glad to have this discussion.

Yes.. hopefully .. it does not come out as only pessimism regarding how to potentially fit bitcoin into some of this, even if we might have some differing perspectives regarding whether or how to engage in the various stages of having or liquidating bitcoin.
9644  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] ESV is the Real English on: September 07, 2020, 05:18:01 AM
Language is plastic (ask JJG about that one). Rules change.

[...]

Anyhow, more broadly, for some reason, you seem to be using me as "language is plastic" example ... but I am not sure about why you are using me for such an example, except maybe you are mad at me for calling you misleading, disingenuous and ridiculous, too many times, perhaps?  poor wee lil picnic bear.   Cry Cry Cry


 Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

jbrehrer is shilling a contentious hardfork of the English language, and accusing you of using “ANYONECANSPEND” words.  Is my witnessing of this transaction valid?

Dr. Craig S. Wright created the English language.  Maybe we should ask him.

That could be one way of interpreting the picnic bear.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

He does have a little love fest going on with Craig,  even though I am quite confident that he will deny that angle, too.    Lips sealed
9645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 07, 2020, 04:04:04 AM

I still hate you, but,

eh join the club. I hate me too for what I did to you. I did defend it for a few minutes before you departed, but soon came to some sense, and have not and will not defend it since, because obviously cannot. Grossly stupid of me, I am truly sorry.

Bad boy, V8.

You deserve a spanking.



Seems that the rod may well  be spared, in this case.  

Looks to me like the $1,000/btc and below price levels need more testing. I'm just telling ya'll the truth. I could see maybe bitcoin long term stable in the $200-$500 range after a lot of faffing about.

If we do go down there, $975 looks like some good support

If we reach $5, I'm intended to buy some more. So there's certainly some support at $5, modest but you've got to start somewhere.

Add three zeros, and you are going to have troubles finding any situation in which you would be able to buy below $5k - even in a hypothetical fire sale... but we can all have some kinds of fantasies, I suppose.
9646  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2020, 09:00:57 PM
Whenever I refer to a random poster on this forum I use the the pronoun "they" rather than he or she.
(And yes "they" is grammatically correct for referring to the singular, or so I've heard.)
And not because of all this politically correct gender pronoun nonsense, but simply because  I dont automatically assume
the gender as being a "he" (albeit on this forum, that's usually the case).
I only mention this because in all this swaystar hullabaloo, (apparently triggered by a post of mine)
I was actually suspecting this sway character could be a she. (or not)

back in the day, as in way back in the day, when i learned english (in two different english speaking countries) i thought i learned that when a singular person of unknown sex was referred to "he" could refer to either sex.

however *main memory checksum error* so..

You learned correctly. Language is plastic (ask JJG about that one). Rules change.

You are suggesting that I twist language to my advantage in some kinds of ways?  

Regarding this particular topic, I already chimed in against the use of they to refer to a singular, but I understand peeps are going to do what peeps are going to do, so I think that I am making less of a BIG deal out of the whole phenomenon, even though I had already chimed in a wee bit about that particular topic.

Anyhow, more broadly, for some reason, you seem to be using me as "language is plastic" example ... but I am not sure about why you are using me for such an example, except maybe you are mad at me for calling you misleading, disingenuous and ridiculous, too many times, perhaps?  poor wee lil picnic bear.   Cry Cry Cry


 Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Price side, I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app, that's enough of a good morning. Need to pick a day to buy some corn in September for my DCA long term strategy. I welcome suggestions.

Divide your DCA allowance into 4 parts. Buy 1/4 right away. Thereafter, buy 1/4 each of the next three weeks. Does that not help?
Thank Jay, sounds good to me. I am about to try this strategy during September.  Cool

Good luck, and don't blame me if it does not feel as if it worked out well for you, financially, psychologically, or otherwise.

 Tongue Tongue

JJG I've come to attain cosmic harmony with completely ignoring anything he produces. My brain has evolved to the point where it's developed a JJG-blocker for quoted text.

Now that is some real humor.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I will believe it when I see it.

 Wink

I was merely trying to make a joke.   Wink

Joke does not work no more if having to explain it.     Tongue Tongue Tongue

It worked JJ, it worked. Grin



Well, I am thrilled that we seem to be having such a seemingly subliminal positive effect upon each other. #nohomo
9647  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 06, 2020, 08:48:27 PM
Perhaps your right, perhaps not, but in the end i dont really care if you believe me or not, its your choice

In these here parts we often have it as "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry".


hahahahaha

Good one, d_eddie.... .Problem was that SwayStar123 was not in any kind of position to make such a strong statement (like the one that satoshi had made) because SwayStar123 was not really putting out any kind of convincing argument that was based on sound facts, tight logic and/or reasonable conclusions.

I knew satoshi, and SwayStar123 was no satoshi.     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9648  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Long-term thinking: Heirs in perpetuity on: September 06, 2020, 08:37:10 PM
Jay,

That veritable mini-book you wrote to me is much appreciated.  I spent a long time drafting a reply thereto—then, a longer time contemplating whether or not it reveals too much potentially identifying information.  Not in the way you may think—but it’s nevertheless a concern, and I am still thinking about that.  With apologies, for now, I’ll need to cut the main part, and leave only the tangent at the end:

Fair enough.

Sometimes there are OPsec risks in oversharing personal details or even some of the strategies can sometimes be too personally revealing.

I have had sometimes where I drafted a response, and then I decide to change some of the details to either make them percentages or to change it into a hypothetical or even to take out or add some information to remove it a bit more from myself (whether we are talking about what I have done, what I am doing or what I might do).

For me, I have batted this topic around so much that I have found several ways in which I can feel comfortable putting out the information, and maybe some guys might proclaim:  "hey your detail 1, detail 2 and detail 3 do not match up with what you said 3 months ago"....  Do I give any shits?  likely not.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Accordingly, I understand that sometimes you may want to reconsider your phraseology or even some of the details that you are providing or to suggest that you are asking (or responding) for a friend...  Wink  Not that any of us internet personalities have any real world friends.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


I understand that even forum members who have been around a long time might not have completely left their BTC accumulation stage, so the three stages of long term investing are accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation, [...]

As a matter of thinking differently about goals, I posit that, unless a major expenditure is desired, there should be no “liquidation” phase for any asset with the fundamentals to constitute a long-term investment (as opposed to a short-term speculation).  Given your apparent familiarity with estate planning, you can probably guess why:  A goal of parlaying personal success into the intergenerational accumulation of familial wealth.

Sure it is possible that you could suggest that one of your goals is to pass on all or some of your wealth, but seems to be somewhat unrealistic to suggest that to be any kind of reasonable goal that should motivate the vast majority of regular investors.

Let's say that your goal is to reach the accumulation of $2million in value because you believe that once you reach that level, then you can have a passive income of $6,666 per month, and that is more than sufficient for yourself to live in perpetuity on that amount of passive income per month.  So by the time you pass from this here earth, you still have not dug into your principle, but you have just lived off of the passive income for however much time you end up living.

i would proclaim that you have both achieved a kind of fuck you status and you have also been able to pass on value to your heirs, to the extent that those snot-nosed non-appreciative brats deserve any of your wealth to be passed on to them.

On the other hand, you might decide (purely discretionary) that your goal is to reach as close to zero as you can by the time that you die, without necessarily becoming a burden on anyone else... So you reach your $2million goal, but at some point, you decide to not only draw from the passive income, but that you are going to create a schedule in which you are withdrawing from the principle...  You may need to create a timeline for this, such as 10 years or 20 years, so if you have $2million dollars, it could well take you more than 20 years to deplete the whole value of your principle in BTC and asset value appreciation, even if you were to double your withdrawal rate from $6,666 to $13,332 per month.. partly depends upon how well the asset appreciates, so if you are trying to withdraw both principle and value, then the goal would be to make sure that you are withdrawing at some kind of rate that sufficiently exceeds its average appreciation rate in order to ongoingly dig into the value of the principle and to deplete the value down to zero over a timeline that may well be within your discretion to choose.


What is best left to one’s children?  Depreciating fiat currency?  Or a portfolio of gold, real estate, and nowadays, Bitcoin?  (I don’t consider stocks to be a “long-term” investment, unless either it is a large share of a privately held company under management personally known and trusted, or you have a Warren Buffet strategy with commensurate capital.)

Sure if you put the assets in a kind of trust, then the you have chosen the various allocations, but if you give the assets to the kids outright, then as soon as they get control of the asset, they can choose to reallocate into whatever kind of asset that they prefer, including if they want to convert such assets into hookers, lambos and blow.  Their choice.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Of course, such planning must assure insofar as practicable that one’s heirs are of a character to grow the wealth and pass it on, rather than irresponsibly dissipating it.  Now, there is a discussion which could delve deeply into the context of the rule against perpetuities—among many other topics:  The legal terms of devises cannot substitute for sound breeding and upraising.

So, yeah, generally speaking, the rule against perpetuities suggest that you can only create some kind of legal instrument to control your assets and the wealth determinations for the measurement of any life in being plus 21 years.. So you are not going to be able to control how those assets are held forever, and I am NOT even sure if that is a reasonable goal, but hey, I understand that people sometimes want to contribute to some kind of lasting legacy that extends beyond their lives and perhaps touches the lives of many others.

A small anecdote:  Many years ago, I had an affair with a woman whose late father had devised significant assets to a trust with her as a beneficiary.  The trust was made to convey its assets to her when she was thirty-five years of age, on condition that she was married.  Obviously, the late gentleman must have desired some assurance that he would have grandchildren who would naturally benefit from their mother’s enrichment.  Well—she was past age thirty-five, married, independently wealthy thanks to papa, and—she didn’t want any children, ever!  In a sumptuous hotel bed that she paid for, she told me that she had never before cheated on her husband; take that for what it’s worth.

I would suggest that for having heirs worthy of the estate, the human element is much more important than legal concerns over the rule against perpetuities, etc.

I think that you are making my point for me, or maybe it is that we just agree about this point.

The further out the limitations, if those limitations can even be sustained through such legal instrument as a trust, the more difficult it is to attempt to incentivize or to control behavior or to get your wishes fulfilled, so might be a lot easier to pass those assets and values onto someone that had been much more influenced by your values, but even that could be a very difficult goal to achieve because sometimes kids engage in rebellious behavior (as your anecdote kind of suggests), they pre-decease their parents or their values change along the way.  Difficult objectives to achieve, but there are likely some people who are successful in both being that kind of influential and having some heirs that end up ready, willing and able to carry out such wishes - even generations down the road.


[edited out]

Exactly... and we would need to have some way of using our assets (btc) in the future without selling them.
I predict that there will be a huge industry helping those with btc achieve just that.
Additionally, very rich today rarely sell their assets as there are many ways to profit without selling.
BTW, aren't South Dakota trusts able to overcome 'no perpetuity' clause?
Personally, I am not really into it.

Surely, I do not proclaim to be any kind of expert, yet property rights tend to be a combination of state law and common law, so there could be some jurisdictions that allow for some deviation beyond the general rule against perpetuities that I stated in my above post.

Namely:
>>>>>generally speaking, the rule against perpetuities suggest that you can only create some kind of legal instrument to control your assets and the wealth determinations for the measurement of any life in being plus 21 years.<<<<<
9649  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip! on: September 06, 2020, 07:44:34 PM
Learning to day-trade, or some kind of pro-active trading style is OK, but as a non-professional trader, don't put yourself under the illusion that will beat the top 10% of traders who do this professionally for a living.



We are plebs, accept that we are plebs, and we buy to HODL. There will only be 21,000,000 Bitcoins.

I just made a post that is somewhat related to buying the dip considerations, and suggesting that buying on a 10% dip is good, and buying on 18% dip is even better... don't get too greedy.. because hey you never know if the dip is done, or not.


That's why I always recommend newbies to use dollar-cost-averaging. Buy some Dipcoins now, buy more later during more dips. Although, I'm not a trader, and it's not a strategy for "traders. I'm just a pleb-saver. Cool

Yep... and I bet you do much better than the vast majority of folks who attempting to be more strategic about how much is enough of a dip, but an ongoing plan of buying regularly and taking advantage of some degree of dip (even though we can never really know how far the dip is going to go and how long the dip is going to last).


For a me as a pleb-newbie, compared to other newbies who like to day-trade, maybe.

Quote

Part of my reason for making my above post, is that frequently peeps ask "how much of a dip is enough?"  Usually the answer in bitcoin would be that any dip should be better than no dip, when it comes to buying, and in the long term, much of this is going to just iron itself out, and if you end up acquiring 10 BTC over the next 10 years, maybe you end up acquiring .5BTC extra merely because you were buying on dips rather than NOT paying attention.  perhaps?  Hard to know, for sure... but you can know if you are regularly buying BTC and overall your BTC stash is growing rather than either staying the same or shrinking... and you can measure and monitor such growth with the passage of time, too.


What does it matter if Bitcoin is on its price-discovery to 6 digits? If they want a definite reply, then buy any dip under $10,000.

Of course, there are potential trade offs to DCA and buying every dip, including not really knowing whether the dip is BIG enough.  I am suggesting (I think that you Wind_FURY are saying the same thing) that BTC accumulators will be much better off, just buying on a regular basis, DCAing and attempting to be reasonable in terms of their attempts to buy on the dips, so maybe at best employing these kinds of buying on dips practices might get BTC accumulators 5% or 10% more bitcoin, perhaps, perhaps?

Posters like exstasie seem to be suggesting that attempting to time the market and really holding back on regular DCA'ing and perhaps saving up all that money to buy on the BIGGER dips, then those guys are going to be able to perform even better than the regular DCA'ers and the folks who are buying on every single dip....

I am thinking  that probably in the end, those guys who are trying to  time the market in order to BUY BIG on  BIG dips are largely NOT outperforming the regular DCA'ers and the ones who are just buying on  even small dips.

Sure, scenarios can be painted in to show me that there are situations where guys could have waited until BTC prices got down into the $3ks or even sub $6ks in 2018, 2019 and 2020 rather than buying so many coins in the supra $7ks, supra $10ks and even the supra $14ks, and I am thinking that it is a BIG SO WHAT because the regular buyer is going to get those low prices (sure maybe run out of money at points when the prices are in the sub $6ks), but he will still end up accumulating way more BTC and becoming more profitable than the one who tries to time the maximum bottom points.

So, of course, guys like exstasie are going to be able to point out examples of BTC accumulators who were able to accumulate more BTC at lower BTC prices because they waited, and I am going to suggest too, that especially in BTClandia, there are a large number of instances where those same kinds of waiting for the price guys are going to wait themselves into having to buy higher and so in the end there are a large number of them who end up doing considerably worse than the more committed DCAer and the more committed buying on dips (even small dips) kinds of investors - especially when it comes to bitcoin.

Now, if we are looking at some other kind of investment, then of course, the results will likely end up being different, but we are talking about BTC here, so seems to me that preparing for up is rarely a BAD thing - except for those folks who sometimes may end up overinvesting - but that is a bit of a different kind of issue in terms of NOT investing more than you can afford to lose... which some people do end up getting too much into any investment in terms of NOT having their cashflow sufficiently managed, so with any long term investment it is good to have your cashflow in order and to be investing into the longer term investment in such a way that you are neither thinking about the investment nor tempted to withdraw from it on a regular basis... and so if you are investing for at least 4-year timeline but even better a 10 year or longer time line, then you should not be tempted to be cashing out any of your BTC stash during that time, just adding to it on a regular basis... and then realize where you are at in terms of withdrawal considerations 4 years (or better yet 10 years or more) down the road.
9650  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 08:14:53 PM
Well I have written several times that anything above 10k is not sustainable. I know that I will get Negative reactions again but I will probably still be writing this the next few years.

When you are right, you are right...

What can you do about it?

Hopefully, you have not failed/refused to prepare yourself in the event that you might happen to be wrong... which seems quite likely..  at least if we zoom out for a while into the future, let's say 6 to 18 months.. could drag out for a bit over 2 years, but I doubt that it will take that long for the next UPpity cycle to play out.

I am pretty sure that proudhon is largely and sufficiently prepared for UP, even though he tries to act like a dumbass dipshit nocoiner.. we know better than that, proudhon.   Tongue

9651  Other / Meta / Re: DT1-strength of 194 users in 68 weeks (weekly updates) on: September 05, 2020, 08:06:42 PM
Mine took a real beating over that Side Chain nonsense. I do have to admit it upset me a little getting distrusted by some senior members. I am still a little butt hurt about that whole saga.

hahaahahaha

I must have missed that particular drama...

Not sure whether I am asking for a friend, or if I would end up participating in any of that when I prefer NOT to get sucked into too much drama, if possible.... even though some amount of drama can be difficult to extract from, once sucked in.    Wink
9652  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 07:58:52 PM
Surely if all that Defi crap is falling to pieces the money would go into bitcoin (if investors are crypto literate people).

Why on earth are people selling the king?

I agree with your overall idea that quite a bit of that divested defi capital would have decent chances to flow into BTC, but I doubt that there are too many circumstances in which we are going to get direct trade-offs like that in terms of being able to directly see the money flowing straight into bitcoin.. even though that is likely where a decent amount of it will end up going.

We also have liquidation confusion, too, in which all assets crash simultaneously, which would include bitcoin, too.. We have seen those short-term correlations on a number of occasions in bitcoin, and of course, us longer term BTC holders advantage by the bunch of dumb fucks in the market who don't really know where to put their value, they are deluded into thinking that bitcoin is the same as the other crap that they were buying, and it takes them a while to actually recognize the value proposition for bitcoin, even very smart people suffer from these kinds of asymmetry of information problems.

Even we had a difficult time realizing how much a variety of shitcoins (including but not limited to ethereum) had devalued against bitcoin in the past 3 years because many charts show 2 years or 5 years and sometimes we miss the chart that shows where that shitcoin ethereum was really at, and for some reason we start to wrongly conclude that it is appreciating in value as compared with BTC, when it had actually gone down 90% in comparison to BTC, so it's relative performance to BTC had looked better than it actually deserved on those shorter time horizons.   Normies get confused about that kind of nonsense, so it takes them a while to actually recognize that they had failed/refused (or were mislead) in their understanding of bitcoin.

We are not over the nonsense, yet, and of course, if there is some momentum, then of course, whales like to take advantage of momentum.  Don't be surprised if we do not get some spectacular and perhaps convincing FUD spreading announcement in the coming days.. but in the end, we just should be appreciating (to the extent that we can) that we are in a better position in terms of our information about bitcoin, and we can either buy some more lil fiends (aka king daddies) or just HODL through the craziness that remains part of this space - surely being able to recognize some of the ongoing nonsensical claims that we are likely to be seeing around much of this.
9653  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 07:36:56 PM


You don't like or appreciate what seems to be an ongoing purging of the snot-nosed 14-year olds out of various shitcoins, defi and yield farming.. gotta be related to our current BTC price performance, no, and seems kind of healthy to purge some of that crappola, no?...

Sure, I don't like BTC prices going down, either, but sometimes it is not easy to have a short-term bitcoin bullrun (like that in early 2019) in which ethereum and other shitcoins lagged behind while bitcoin did a 3.5x in about three months... those were the days, and those are rare opportunities and lovely to witness, but seemed hard to accomplish within a kind of bullshit defi, yield-farming phenomenon that had been taking place in recent times..

What the hell do I know regarding what is sustainable, though?
9654  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Pesky pronouns in the anonymity of cypherspace on: September 05, 2020, 06:54:08 PM
[edited out]

and everything to do with not wanting to possibly incorrectly refer to a she as a he...nothing more, nothing less.
And yes I should have appended my post to clarify that if indeed the poster is female, it doesn’t make a shit bit of difference.

You did the fatal error of mentioning me in your post, sirazimuth.

I am going to chime in that I agree with nullius and the various other antiplurality references to singulars.

If she cannot handle getting referred to as he, then fuck her.

Same thing is true, if he cannot handle getting referred to as she, then he is acting like a whiny bitch....

especially on the interwebs, we can be he or she.  I do find the term "it" to be a bit dehumanizing, and NOT to many of us are it... at least I hope not.


Please, no more pompous long winded lectures, that's jays job.

nullius can definitely out "long wind" me and surely in many more seemingly erudited ways, but I have noticed that he tends to be much more sporadic than me, so he does not seem to have any kind of marathon-like endurance, to the extent that marathon-like endurance might be a positive, rather than a negative.  

I am thinking that he must have to go away for 3-6 months just to draft up his multiple possible responses, and then when he comes back, he tweaks and slams those various pre-drafted ideas upon various parts of the forum's populace.  That's my tentative theory, and I am sticking with such tentative theory until there is meaningful evidence to the contrary.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9655  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 06:35:57 PM
I sense a storm coming our way, moving from north to south.
Should we name it ?

Hurricane Bearolina

Good one.

Is it really a hurrycane or just a dropical storm?

EDIT:
my take:

dropical storm Bigbart

I am thinking that the severity of our current storm is somehow related in a kind of exacerbated way to some purging of froth that seems to be taking place in the ethereum (and perhaps related) space.  It may be too early to call that dynamic, and surely there are likely a decent number of 14 year old snot-nosed investors in ethereum, defi, yield farming et al that deserved to be purged to zero or somewhere in the vicinity of zero and to verify if they are still committed to such projects after a wee bit of froth purging.  Hard to know, exactly.

Valid option, imho.
VitalikCoin is dumping even harder, like many other Alts. Don't know how much the defi crap is dumping at the time.

Surely, we do not watch those shitcoins too much in this thread, but does not seem to be off-topic to denigrate them from time to time, including the fact that fees have been so damned high on ethereum in recent times that it makes it much more disincentivized to be moving value around, so it would seem reasonable to conclude that a decent number of retail (and smaller potato investors) are getting screwed by ending up locked in various arrangements that they are not easily able to move out of, in part based on the cloggness of their sham purported to be network...many 14 snot-nosed must be crying about losing their allowance, as we type, no?

EDIT:
I have to do some cleaning now, pasteurize some raw milk, transform some of it into a caffè latte and try fresh baked cookies with weed.
So in case they're too intensive and i won't show no more today  Grin have a nice evening, do yourself something good  Cool

Edit:
Protip:  I heard that raw milk is better for you anyhow, so skip the pasteurizing and just stick with raw dogging your milk.  You will thank me later, you dog.  Wink
9656  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 06:27:26 PM
I sense a storm coming our way, moving from north to south.
Should we name it ?

Hurricane Bearolina

Good one.

Is it really a hurrycane or just a dropical storm?

EDIT:
my take:

dropical storm Bigbart

I am thinking that the severity of our current storm is somehow related in a kind of exacerbated way to some purging of froth that seems to be taking place in the ethereum (and perhaps related) space.  It may be too early to call that dynamic, and surely there are likely a decent number of 14 year old snot-nosed investors in ethereum, defi, yield farming et al that deserved to be purged to zero or somewhere in the vicinity of zero and to verify if they are still committed to such projects after a wee bit of froth purging.  Hard to know, exactly.

Soooo...  Any insights on if/when/how we are getting decoupled from stocks, and (I hope) coupled to precious metals?

1337 traders are treating BTC like a speculative leveraged stock. Meaning in order to derisk, at the first sign of market going south it's the first asset they drop. I don't see that changing short term. The way we decouple is on a big correction, when speculators exit/take leveraged short position thinking BTC is dead once again, hodlers seeing value start buying up and burn those short. It can happen now when we'll go to around $6k, or can happen when we'll go from $40k to $20k that depends on the global markets. The cycle will continue for some time, but should be diminishing with time and higher market caps.

I have my doubts about going below $8k, but gosh going below $6,600 would likely be very short-lived and a spike, if it were to occur... never say never in bitcoinlandia.. and of course, UP is preferred to DOWn - especially for those of us who would prefer that beartwats are not allowed to refill their having had already sold too much too soon...  Hate to see those guys getting corn, but hey?  What you gonna do?  Cannot really stop corn from doing whatever it's going to do.
9657  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 06:15:59 PM
proclaiming that you lost interest.. blah blah blah.. nonsense..
its not that i had lost interest but that i stopped updating due to unrelated circumstances in life
Due to personal and unrelated reasons i stopped this, maybe in a year or so when I have more free time I will restart it
We seem to be repeating ourselves here, and your whole way of handling the closing of the thread (and project) still seems disingenuous to me... but of course, you are free to conduct your self in whatever way that you believe is suitable to the circumstances (including your own circumstances), and if you realize that your actions can sometimes cause other members to negatively judge you for such choices that you make.. and even to publicly proclaim such negative judgements, which seems to have been what I had done on several occasions in your thread, in this thread several months ago, and just recently.  Call me a judgmental twat, if you must.    Tongue

Perhaps your right, perhaps not, but in the end i dont really care if you believe me or not, its your choice

I am right about having a personal opinion, and there is a possibility that absolutely no one agrees with my opinion, and even possible that absolutely no one agrees with my having had expressed my opinion.

One of the good things about this forum is that we can share facts, logic and opinions, amongst other variations of those things, and for the most part, our posts are allowed to stand in this particular thread, so long as they do not go beyond rules of the forum or the discretionary censorship inclinations of this thread owner (which is infofront), and infofront seem to have a pretty high tolerance for allowing the batting around of ideas in this thread (and a largely low tolerance for censorship, even when he is doing it.. hahahahaha), even if some ideas that are expressed might be minority ideas.. and the forum largely does not seem to be interfering with infofront's discretion, since he took over the thread in 2017-ish, we have heard a lot fewer complaints from some of the forum admins and mods in regards to the general allowance of topics on this thread and what is going on in this thread, overall.

So, perhaps we have beat this topic (of me judging your actions) to death a bit, and we can agree to disagree on some parts of where we might stand, and I will just wait and see whether you continue with the same patterns of behavior or if you make any improvements from my perspective, to the extent that my perspective matters at all beyond me (as you have already suggested that my perspective might not have any impact on you.. and surely, you have discretion in regards to whether you tweak your ways or you continue to maintain your ways, too).
9658  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 05:43:58 PM
trader that he could turn .05 BTC into 1 BTC[/url]

0.005 btc*

It was some dust I had on a spare account, i decided to make it a challenge because why not

Ok. Fair enough correction -  even more unrealistic.

True, it was unrealistic as fuck, but thats what made the challenge fun

causing him to get a considerable amount of backlash in this thread and in his other thread, because he was overpromising, underdelivering and not even coming close to achieving his BTC price prediction goals or acknowledging the various fallacies of his ways that had considerably good chances to mislead others..
Risk management allows me to be right only 33% of the time and still breakeven, in the post which you linked i had a more than 33% success rate,
Many of us more experience peeps realize that if you are playing a kind of martingale style, then it may not even matter if you have 90% success rate, if you end up losing everything in one shot somewhere down the road...   The system that you were describing in that thread, and even when you talk about your system here is far from transparent and even far from any kind of assured way to make sure that you are making money..  

What I was doing was originally risking 1% per trade, then if that trade was profitable (say made 2% profit), i would then risk 2% (which would say make 4%), and then risk 4% and so on, assuring i dont lose my starting money, but giving me a more realistic (albeit still hard) way to achieve my 20,000% goal

Well, maybe i forgot some of the details because I had recalled that you were using margin, and sure, if you use margin smartly, then you would be able to potentially figure out ways to be right more frequently than you are wrong and thereby increase the size of your trading portfolio, so something like what you are describing actually makes sense, if you are NOT risking large portions of your portfolio with each trade, but surely on the other hand, the amount of time to achieve your objective can take a considerable amount of time, too, especially if you are making sure that you are NOT over-betting then you are NOT likely to make as much profits on each trade, either.




even if i told you every single trade i was gonna take theres obviously going to be nuances to every different persons trading strategies, which i wouldnt be able to explain to you, such as deciding not to take a trade due to change of context
Of course, explaining your trades is difficult as fuck, but does not mean that you cannot try to do that.  I don't have any problem with guys either explaining their trades are attempting to be helpful in terms of explaining the good, bad and the ugly of actual trading... and surely other members could benefit from a trader who attempts to be straight forward about his trades.
True I guess I should have attempted it, I will try to keep that in mind.

only your unrealistic expectations of yourself (to the extent that you were actually being genuine), were not realistic
My unrealistic goals werent realistic? well yeah... they werent trying to be either tho  Undecided

Maybe I just have personal antipathies when the goals are neither realistic nor attempting to be realistic.

Many of us already have a undesireable tendency to gamble too much or to lean towards gambling too much, so I hardly find any appeal or valor towards members promoting the gambling side of things as either ways to get rich or ways to carry themselves in life in terms of wanting to make progress in life.

There are all kinds of vultures out there who thrive off of the greed and gambling natures that each of us have within us, and I tend to consider anyone who is trying to play on those themes or to bring out those negative attributes as a kind of vulture or a vulture wannabe.  It's not a good look or a good practice.

and your timeline of expecting to achieve your goal was unrealistic

IIRC there was no time limit or set timeline for achieving the goal, i gave myself as much time as i would have needed

Perhaps the time line was more implicit rather than explicit, but if there were no time limit, then there should be no reason that the thread should not still be open.. if it were to take 1 year or 50 years to reach your goal of converting .005BTC to 1BTC.  Makes little to no sense to begin such a project, and then close it after a few months, without at least wrapping up the thread and proclaiming that your goals were unrealistic or something like that.

Can you imagine working on the goal for 50 years, and posting on a regular basis, and finally announcing that you had achieved your goal?  That would be respectable commitment.  Not that I am trying to set high bars of achievement for you, but instead merely attempting to figure out ways that your whole project might not have come off as so damned repulsive the way that you ended up doing it.  


proclaiming that you lost interest.. blah blah blah.. nonsense..
its not that i had lost interest but that i stopped updating due to unrelated circumstances in life

Due to personal and unrelated reasons i stopped this, maybe in a year or so when I have more free time I will restart it

We seem to be repeating ourselves here, and your whole way of handling the closing of the thread (and project) still seems disingenuous to me... but of course, you are free to conduct yourself in whatever way that you believe is suitable to the circumstances (including your own circumstances), and if you realize that your actions can sometimes cause other members to negatively judge you for such choices that you make.. and even to publicly proclaim such negative judgements, which seems to have been what I had done on several occasions in your thread, in this thread several months ago, and just recently.  Call me a judgmental twat, if you must.    Tongue
9659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 04:34:01 PM
September 3, 2020
12:03 pm

I bought bitcoin with the amount of $150 with the market price of the coin 11.3k market price and I'm trying to take investment because there is a chance that the price goes up into 15k.

Right now I'm seeing the price drops over 10k and continuously going down and this is not a good shot for me right now. The only choice is holding and wait again for another pump.

Just want to share my cruel mistake lol.

You did not make any mistake, you fucking diptwat.

If you bought at $11,300, then just keep on buying, and don't be such a dweeb.

Do not invest more than you can lose, and have a vision for the longer term with any of the money that you put in - 4 years or longer (longer is better, something like 10 years or more).

You are lucky as fuck to even know about BTC before other normies and you are lucky as fuck if you have identified ways to buy BTC on a regular basis.

Your enemy, is going to likely be your lack of conviction and lack of having a plan to continue to buy and to plan out your future for longer term.


What is the hold up?  Are you the one holding yourself back or do you have another kind of explanation for your seemingly dweeb and whiner-like appearance?
9660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 04:18:38 PM
trader that he could turn .05 BTC into 1 BTC[/url]

0.005 btc*

It was some dust I had on a spare account, i decided to make it a challenge because why not

Ok. Fair enough correction -  even more unrealistic.

causing him to get a considerable amount of backlash in this thread and in his other thread, because he was overpromising, underdelivering and not even coming close to achieving his BTC price prediction goals or acknowledging the various fallacies of his ways that had considerably good chances to mislead others..
Risk management allows me to be right only 33% of the time and still breakeven, in the post which you linked i had a more than 33% success rate,

Many of us more experience peeps realize that if you are playing a kind of martingale style, then it may not even matter if you have 90% success rate, if you end up losing everything in one shot somewhere down the road...   The system that you were describing in that thread, and even when you talk about your system here is far from transparent and even far from any kind of assured way to make sure that you are making money.. 



even if i told you every single trade i was gonna take theres obviously going to be nuances to every different persons trading strategies, which i wouldnt be able to explain to you, such as deciding not to take a trade due to change of context

Of course, explaining your trades is difficult as fuck, but does not mean that you cannot try to do that.  I don't have any problem with guys either explaining their trades are attempting to be helpful in terms of explaining the good, bad and the ugly of actual trading... and surely other members could benefit from a trader who attempts to be straight forward about his trades.

The overall theme of your thread to convert .005 BTC to 1BTC and to show your trades along the way was not a bad one, only your unrealistic expectations of yourself (to the extent that you were actually being genuine), were not realistic, and your timeline of expecting to achieve your goal was unrealistic and your lack of carrying out the whole project was disingenuous and even failing to really disclose that you lost all your BTC and proclaiming that you lost interest.. blah blah blah.. nonsense..


furthermore not even acknowledging that he had pretty much lost all of his money in a pretty short time.
I dont know where this is coming from,before the end of the challenge I was only trading with 100 contracts per trade, which is not alot at all, and then as i said before locking the thread, i was busy with personal reasons so i stopped updating the thread and trading with the challenge account

Even assuming you did not lose all of your BTC, there was both lame follow through and lame transparency.

Sure there might be ways that you can attempt to redeem yourself, but you have already engaged in quite a bit of baloney and misleading conduct in my humble bumble opinion, but sure, you can try some kind of attention seeking project, and hopefully you can figure out some methodology in order to have some sustainability in your approach rather than making bold and unrealistic claims and then NOT following through, which seems to be your ongoing modus operandi.
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