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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 25, 2017, 05:13:26 AM
Anyone who speaks in terms of an "end" goal is ignorant of the fact that the Universe must be relativistic and without a definable end goal, lest we wouldn't exist in any sense other than a prescripted recording. I've explained why numerous times in my archives.

You have no grounds to conclude that the universe is not prescripted. Our existence as prescripted entities would in no way negate our validity or our intrinsic value.

There are definitely reasons to believe that the universe actually is prescripted

See:
The Illusion of Time : Past, Present and Future all exist Together
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vrqmMoI0wks

and

Time is NOT real: Physicists argue EVERYTHING happens at the same time
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/science/738387/Time-NOT-real-EVERYTHING-happens-same-time-einstein/amp

How much time has passed from the perspectives of a single photon travelling outward from the moment of the Big Bang?

Answer: None our moment and the moment of the Big Bang are identical from that perspective.

I don't have time to watch those videos. But what they theorize is a circular argument. Yes an omniscient being which has a total ordering perspective, could see the Universe as prescripted.

But never we will have nor measure a totally ordered perspective. Because if we could, then we could not be inside the prescripted world.

@CoinCube, I disagree with the claim that top-down morass is a requirement for, or even a provably more, long-term competitive strategy. Go ahead and tie all your shoelaces together with your brethren.

I believe I showed mathematically that top-down control is a requirement to be competitive.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg4897280#msg4897280

You showed that some partial top-down orders must exist. That doesn't prove that everything must be totally ordered.

I pointed out to you numerous times since then that a decentralized system can be composed of a plurality of top-down orders. Think fractals. The structure of top-down orders within partial orders is infinitely detailed zooming in and out of the fractal structure of containment.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BCH kill BTCSegWit while reinstating BTCSatoshi? on: December 25, 2017, 05:05:58 AM
Btw, I tried to send my son $100 for Xmas and I told him to give me a Bitcoin Cash address because I didn't have any BTC right now and because the transaction fees are too high. And I told him to be careful because BTC and BCH addresses are not distinguishable algorithmically. He said he had Coinbase and then I remembered Coinbase had recently suspended BCH because of some insider trading investigation (presuming that their acceptance of BCH is what lead to the recent pump to $4000). He opted for me to have a check mailed from my Wells Fargo bank even though it would be 5 days delayed.

Crypto is still not ready for prime time. It's too difficult to use, too many caveats and snafus, and too many centralized large players with too much dominance over the market. But probably these are just growing pains, not catastrophic, because some project will deliver on decentralization at sufficient scale.
3  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 25, 2017, 04:54:45 AM
Of course gold is fungible.  You're trying to apply externalities such as government that are irrelevant to the definition at hand.  Yes, the govt can make a law outlawing oxygen too. Does it mean oxygen is not fungible now?  No.  The periodic table does not recognize the authority of a man claiming to be god (govt).

Breathing is decentralized. Mediums-of-exchange and stores-of-value are not, as they depend on the consensus CONFIDENCE of even a significant minority of the population.

Gold is a highly inferior medium-of-exchange. It's store-of-value function is suffering from the changes in technology and surveillance which make it nearly impossible to transport it without suffering extreme risk. Used to be you could hop on a boat and take your gold with you (with sufficient hired security). Now you need permission from government to do it, else you're at extreme risk of being thrown in some sort of Guantanamo Bay prison.

Fungibility is really not the relevant FUD any more. The issue is that no currency nor store-of-value operates outside of government. And thus cryptocurrency at least offers the ability to do jurisdictional arbitrage. This will work until the NWO world goverment is formed (because the Zionists want us to subvert the nation-states!). I told all of you that the Zionists created Bitcoin in order to force the nation-states to demand a world government because Bitcoin subsumes the authority of any one grouping of nation-states.

Bitcoin is a bottom-up subterfuge of sovereignty (both nation-state and personal sovereignty are eventually destroyed at their end game).

By not investing in crypto, you're missing out on the massive transformation of world from nation-states to a NWO world government model. You can't stop this outcome with your silly precious metals fetish. The elite have been quoted as stating, "we will burn the fingertips of the goldbugs up to their armpits". You gonna learn the hard way @roach.
4  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 25, 2017, 04:13:38 AM
I have for example a way to make LN work in a more scalable way horizontal to userbase. Schnorr also helps with multisig and p2sh transactions. You seem to not have your engineering hat on again.

Show me the details (sufficiently summarized because I don't have time) and I will show you that you are incorrect. I find that you often make technological claims in this thread without sufficient peer review.

Btw, I tried to send my son $100 for Xmas and I told him to give me a Bitcoin Cash address because I didn't have any BTC right now and because the transaction fees are too high. And I told him to be careful because BTC and BCH addresses are not distinguishable algorithmically. He said he had Coinbase and then I remembered Coinbase had recently suspended BCH because of some insider trading investigation (presuming that their acceptance of BCH is what lead to the recent pump to $4000). He opted for me to have a check mailed from my Wells Fargo bank even though it would be 5 days delayed.

Crypto is still not ready for prime time. It's too difficult to use, too many caveats and snafus, and too many centralized large players with too much dominance over the market. But probably these are just growing pains, not catastrophic, because some project will deliver on decentralization at sufficient scale.

P.S. Finally got an MRI and I have numerous 0.5 - 1cm cysts on my liver, spleen, and left kidney. The Tuberculosis is entirely cleared from my lungs. So probably I need surgery to remove the cysts. Apparently the chronic fatigue and brain fog (which has so severely restricted my productivity) will abate immediately after surgery. Hopefully surgery in January if a quick change in diet, exercise intensity, and intravenous vitamin C is not able to cause the cysts to spontaneously burst or diminish. Apparently those cysts have been there since at least 2016 when the ultrasound revealing roughed gut organs, but the stupid doctors here never mentioned the possibility that the ultrasound could be indicating cysts. They should have ordered an MRI back then! I actually had to demand the MRI because the doctor here was wanting endoscopy instead! It's all about how they make the most money I think (the MRI is done by a radiologist, not them). I've been told that the politics of the hospitals here is more dysfunctional than the politics of the government! And boy have I suffered and lost a half-lifetime of productivity because of it! The gut effects started after the acute peptic ulcer ER hospitalization in May 2012. I have to find a surgeon I can trust (not some Asian doctor like the one who blinded my eye) and that I can afford (no health insurance, pre-existing condition)



Anonymint, good to see you're still around. Ethereum was a joint effort with many people involved from the beginning. I did my part as did Vitalik and the rest; apparently, the Ethereum org doesn't want to call me a founder thus I guess my role was minimal, but it was a lot of fun. It is true Mint and I had many discussions about finance both during my time at Invictus and after. My memory fails to recall all the things that were said, but I do like his outside of the box thinking and also love of Scala. Although I'm still a Haskell man Cool

What the fuck is this.. i dont understand these accounts popping up and saying the same thing over and over. And yes gold sucks. Dyor.

Somebody apparently is trying to pretend that Charles Hoskinson is writing anonymous messages. It's probably some parody on me of some sort, implying that I'm delusional or something of that sort. It's referring to the time before Charles started Ethereum and he and I had some brief interactions. But Charles (of IOHK, ADA, Cardero, etc) is big time now Mr. Haskell  (Edinburgh University, Philip Wadler, etc) of crypto. For those of you who understand programming language design (so then you understand Wadler is a significant person), could try to understand the significance of something I wrote this week. Haskell will not become the next mainstream programming language. Lucid might. Btw, click that link to Wadler is a significant person and you get a little surprise.
5  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 20, 2017, 05:10:31 PM
I'm a technologist.

Technology is just a tool like a hammer, though; a means to an end but not the end.  This makes the word technologist, transhumanist, and all derivatives like that kind of like saying you're a stapler.  It's not hard to make the argument humans have no purpose (nihilism), but if you think the opposite, there's definitely not going to be any purpose found in being a stapler.

Very well said. As you know I am a fan of the non stapler theory of life.

Anyone who speaks in terms of an "end" goal is ignorant of the fact that the Universe must be relativistic and without a definable end goal, lest we wouldn't exist in any sense other than a prescripted recording. I've explained why numerous times in my archives.

A technologist is always furthering the maximum division-of-labor which is entirely consistent with the fundamental law of thermodynamics which states that entropy (inexorably) trends to maximum.

There's no one goal. We're all working on slightly different goals. Some may share some like-mindedness.

@CoinCube, I disagree with the claim that top-down morass is a requirement for, or even a provably more, long-term competitive strategy. Go ahead and tie all your shoelaces together with your brethren.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BCH kill BTCSegWit while reinstating BTCSatoshi? on: December 20, 2017, 04:56:41 PM
I told you so. Exactly what I predicted yet again.
7  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 18, 2017, 02:52:18 PM
If one tried to live by the principle that we can never make judgments one could not live life. The concept is ultimately incoherent.

Ultimately unless he can conquer, enslave me, and force me to submit to his morality, then it's all hot air from my perspective. I will not attempt to pretend I know anything about his power over others, probably because I don't care to know.

Basically they're just all babbling idiots which I should ignore.

I'm generally more approachable when people don't speak down to me (and others). Dispensing with his absolute conviction about morality would be a start of someone I might be willing to absorb and contemplate. If he could recognize that what he is doing is analogous in some way to the very left he despises, might indicate to me that he is a smart and observant person with sufficient humility about the futility of absolutes.

I think generally most people just ignore and don't even bother to give such feedback. I should probably adopt that more invisible reaction.

In short, politics and religion is a battle over top-down control. Rather I just accept the world is diverse and I'm not going to be able to form a society of like-minded people. Ultimately economic arguments are what matters. I would probably be more interested if these dudes were telling me how I can be more competitive (and obviously gaming the collective will incentivize me to become less competitive).

I would be more interested perhaps if he was able to argue that conservatives are going to dominate the earth and so I better join them or else. I doubt such a convincing argument could be made successfully. Thus it's all rhetoric to play in the propaganda game of politics. The leftists tell me that I must adopt their morality or else they'll have the government destroy me. The conservatives tell me I have to adopt their morality else I will go to Hell. Basically they're both trying to intimidate me into joining their dysfunctional cults.

The don't throw your pearls at swine scripture comes to mind. Politicking is throwing feces at swine. If they had pearls, they'd be more circumspect.

I realized while writing this that I am not right, left, Libertarian, nor even min-anarchist. I'm apolitical. I'm a technologist. And I'm a man.
8  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 18, 2017, 05:17:13 AM
@realroach of course commodization of mining is nonsense. And Bitcoin will be entirely centralized at the Zionist end game, exactly how they planned it when they created Bitcoin. Where is that link to Szabo's federation theory of mining? I think it's somewhat true that the game theory of proof-of-work prevents a rogue whale/miner from taking 51% control to do abhorrent actions which destroy the system. Yet at the end game (which is perhaps decades from now) of the death of stored, fungible monetary value, all those whales are locked into a "one for all, all for one" top-down, totalitarian control system to try to sustain the value of their useless stored value units.

Now understand my prior post (the quote of my discussion with CoinHoarder) and my theme about the knowledge age is about where blockchains are going that the creators of Bitcoin may not have realized:

Quote
The industrial laborer was just a new kind of slave

Yes because he was fungible (replaceable). That was the key theme of an essay I wrote circa 2012 or 2013, about why technology has the potential to move us beyond fungible investments and finance. It's difficult to own or finance creativity, because it's not fungible and thus can't be aggregated in economies-of-scale.

The "Zionists" (kings of finance and capture of the government with their economies-of-scale) may be at the end of their rope and taking all the collectivism morass down with them. Socialism was necessary for the fungible slave to have a bargaining position. Voting was superior to constant civil war.

[...] hence the S based adoption curve we are seeing and an amazing price discovery with the likes of which we have never and will never see again in any asset in our or our childrens lifetimes.

Thus, another 10,000X gain may still be coming for the project which fulfills my knowledge age theme. Bitcoin may not be the last one we will see in our lifetime. The train may not have left the station yet.
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 18, 2017, 04:59:17 AM
Here is a very short little video clip that describes the fundamental difference between the right and the left. I highly recommend watching it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPVDfhXQfw8

Bruce Charlton once again is making up dogmatic bullshit. I don't feel any brotherhood with that overbearing Jew who thinks he knows what is right and wrong as if he appointed himself to be God.

The left and right are both trying to dictate morality. They both reach for top-down control, with the religious conservatives obfuscating their power trip in guise of religion being the absolute truth that everyone must follow lest we incorrigibles go to Hell and be disrespected in the Jewish or Christian circles.

None of them are following Jesus' wisdom in Matthew 6:5 to STFU and pray in their closet and leaving the judging about morality to God at the gate to heaven.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BCH kill BTCSegWit while reinstating BTCSatoshi? on: December 18, 2017, 02:27:40 AM
If you really want to talk about the HERE and NOW....

Who cares about making transactions via cryptocurrencies, really? They are a speculation vehicle based on their future utility once major adoption occurs. No one wants to buy their coffee in a neutral-inflation (or deflationary) cryptocurrency when they can buy it with the inflationary capital they have.

Agreed. Which is why this entire scaling nonsense from Core has just been a power grab.

As I wrote upthread, I’m very grateful for the drama and trading opportunities.

Yet there’s one group that does care about making transactions with cryptocurrencies. Specifically those who are using tokens for something they want to participate in. They’re not in it for investment; yet maybe the investors also want in it.

And that’s why we’ll not quickly get significant adoption (other than speculation on the future) without onboarding to the masses onto some activity (which requires cryptocurrency) other than just speculation. Steem has been a very illuminating experiment and now a Top 1000 website, but the details are mucked up a bit.

Try to live off of cryptocurrency only for a while and tell me how that works out. Hint: using a debit card or other service that converts crypto to FIAT is not living off of only cryptocurrency.

The most significant potential use cases of tokenization aren’t to pay for things I normally pay for with fiat. Rather for new paradigms that fiat can’t be used to pay for. The ChangeTip Must Die argument is incorrect, because who wants to maintain 100s of subscriptions!

[...]

Only Bcash FUDsters want to buy their coffee with cryptocurrency.

Sorry incorrect. Many reasons needed to send crypto transactions. I need fast and reliable crypto transactions. When BTC transactions slow down to an hour or more for the first confirmation, there will be a mad rush into BCH. We’ll see the price spike, and so goes the life of taking candy from babies.

...

[...]

Bitcoin is a PRIVATIZED reserve currency, store-of-value asset, not a medium-of-exchange! As faith in PUBLIC institutions collapses, Bitcoin is the new gold, precisely as was written in the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Which correlates with Martin Armstrong's 51.6 year oscillating shift between PRIVATE assets (e.g. gold and now Bitcoin) and PUBLIC institution assets (e.g. sovereign bonds). Real estate isn't entirely a private asset, because taxes have to be paid to the government, no one has an allodial title, and the government can seize the land for emminent domain.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 18, 2017, 02:26:21 AM
If you really want to talk about the HERE and NOW....

Who cares about making transactions via cryptocurrencies, really? They are a speculation vehicle based on their future utility once major adoption occurs. No one wants to buy their coffee in a neutral-inflation (or deflationary) cryptocurrency when they can buy it with the inflationary capital they have.

Agreed. Which is why this entire scaling nonsense from Core has just been a power grab.

As I wrote upthread, I’m very grateful for the drama and trading opportunities.

Yet there’s one group that does care about making transactions with cryptocurrencies. Specifically those who are using tokens for something they want to participate in. They’re not in it for investment; yet maybe the investors also want in it.

And that’s why we’ll not quickly get significant adoption (other than speculation on the future) without onboarding to the masses onto some activity (which requires cryptocurrency) other than just speculation. Steem has been a very illuminating experiment and now a Top 1000 website, but the details are mucked up a bit.

Try to live off of cryptocurrency only for a while and tell me how that works out. Hint: using a debit card or other service that converts crypto to FIAT is not living off of only cryptocurrency.

The most significant use cases of tokenization aren’t to pay for things I normally pay for with fiat. Rather for new paradigms that fiat can’t be used to pay for. The ChangeTip Must Die argument is incorrect, because who wants to maintain 100s of subscriptions!

[...]

Only Bcash FUDsters want to buy their coffee with cryptocurrency.

Sorry incorrect. Many reasons needed to send crypto transactions. I need fast and reliable crypto transactions. When BTC transactions slow down to an hour or more for the first confirmation, there will be a mad rush into BCH. We’ll see the price spike, and so goes the life of taking candy from babies.

...

[...]

Bitcoin is a PRIVATIZED reserve currency, store-of-value asset, not a medium-of-exchange! As faith in PUBLIC institutions collapses, Bitcoin is the new gold, precisely as was written in the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Which correlates with Martin Armstrong's 51.6 year oscillating shift between PRIVATE assets (e.g. gold and now Bitcoin) and PUBLIC institution assets (e.g. sovereign bonds). Real estate isn't entirely a private asset, because taxes have to be paid to the government, no one has an allodial title, and the government can seize the land for emminent domain.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto winter is coming again … on: December 17, 2017, 07:59:32 AM
Also this from James A. Donald, the first person who communicated with Satoshi on the mailing list where Bitcoin was announced:

A bad time to invest in Bitcoin
October 8th, 2017

Back in 2013 I urged people to invest in Bitcoin.

Yesterday someone asked my cleaning lady to invest in Bitcoin.

Now if someone had asked her to accept payment in Bitcoin, or send payment in Bitcoin, then this would be compelling evidence that one should invest in Bitcoin.

But when cleaning ladies are asked to invest in Bitcoin, not a good investment.

When Bitcoin began, everyone was a miner, and everyone was a peer, everyone stored the entire blockchain. Which was great, but did not scale. And now people are struggling with half assed ideas about how to get it to scale.  Bitcoin can no longer deliver on its original promises, has not figured out what new promises to make, and many of the new promises are unworkable, or are scams, or are likely to turn into scams.


Note I also advised others to invest in BTC back in 2013.

Note James A. Donald flipped his stance:

A good time to invest in bitcoin

In 2013 I recommended investing in bitcoin.

Quite recently I recommended not investing in bitcoin, because my cleaning lady who has no idea what to do when her computer freezes up, is investing in bitcoin. When the widows and orphans start buying stocks, it is time to sell.

Lately I have heard tell of thought criminals opening bitcoin accounts, because they noticed “Nazis” getting their accounts blocked, and figured that come the terror, they would need some money that could not be blocked.

That, people getting bitcoin accounts for actual monetary use, is a mighty good reason to invest in bitcoin. Time was when these people would have purchased gold or uncut diamonds.

Total value of Bitcoin it is currently around two hundred billion. People hold gold for roughly the same purpose as they hold cryptocurrency. It is reasonable that the total value of all crypto currencies should be comparable to the total value of gold, which is at present ten trillion.

Some other crypto currency may, and quite likely will, replace bitcoin.

But at the present moment, Bitcoin is where it is at. The aggregate value of all the various cryptocurrencies out there is dominated by aggregate value of bitcoin.

Which gives room for Bitcoin to rise by a factor of fifty.

Bitcoin was originated by an international traveler with many identities and many passports (not me, alas). Bitcoin governance is now primarily located in mainland China, which is to say, located in the place most inaccessible to American power. A crypto currency is a crypto state, and the bitcoin crypto state is substantially influenced by white people who are not all the time located in white countries, or are located much of the time in white countries rather distant from the centers of US Government power. Location in China does not imply as much actual Chinese control as one might expect.

Bitcoin is a speculation on the continued functioning of the economy outside the state, and to which the state is hostile. Its major monetary (non speculative) use is evading Chinese currency controls and evading present and likely future US government controls.

Quote
If the Federal Reserve issues its own cryptocurrency, will Bitcoin retain its luster?

Every single person that I know of who is an actual end user, who is using bitcoin for monetary rather than speculative purposes, has good reason to believe that the Federal Reserve is hostile to him, and that if it had full knowledge of his doings would be murderously hostile.

Gold is a tulip mania bubble that has not popped in three thousand years.

Money is a bubble that does not pop.

Lightning network is a very bad idea, but something rather like lightning network can be made to work.

Yes, Bitcoin is broken. It has hit its scalability limits.

But these problems are fixable, and with this much wealth looking for a safe place to hide, someone is going to fix them.

Not necessarily in Bitcoin though. Possibly with an altcoin.

Quote
And either way, the security of bitcoin is ensured by the miners

This is a very bad design flaw. We need a crypto currency where control is by weight of money, rather than by weight of computing power.

But how can one implement weight of money when the biggest accounts are likely deliberately disconnected from the internet for long periods, and often located in places where the internet is extremely bad, so that even when intentionally connected, are connected by a low bandwidth and highly unreliable connection?

Easy: We have client/peer arrangement. The client, seldom connected to the internet, and connected by a low bandwidth connection when it is connected, logs in to a peer from time to time. The peer is always on, and always connected to all the other peers by a very high bandwidth connection. A peer has influence over the currency according to the weight of the money controlled by its clients. Its clients can easily move from one peer to the next, taking influence over the currency and over the governance of the crypto currency from the previous peer and granting it to the new peer.

You have a lot of catching up to do on the flaws of DPoS. Find his blog post on consortium blockchains for more refutation of the stake voting paradigm.

You're correct that "other guys" are far ahead of you on the scaling issue and maintaining decentralization.

Contrast the above comments on what gives Bitcoin value to the misunderstanding in the mass media:

Nearly a decade after its introduction, and with nearly $100bn in market capitalisation, a list of all legitimate merchants willing to accept Bitcoin fits comfortably on a single web page.

[...]

Like most financial bubbles, Bitcoin begins with a claim to have invented a new way of doing business. If people lose faith in that claim, the entire edifice is merely a record of some pointless calculations. At the moment, there’s little evidence to support the idea that Bitcoin will ever become a usable currency.

Bitcoin is a PRIVATIZED reserve currency, store-of-value asset, not a medium-of-exchange! As faith in PUBLIC institutions collapses, Bitcoin is the new gold, precisely as was written in the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Which correlates with Martin Armstrong's 51.6 year oscillating shift between PRIVATE assets (e.g. gold and now Bitcoin) and PUBLIC institution assets (e.g. sovereign bonds). Real estate isn't entirely a private asset, because taxes have to be paid to the government, no one has an allodial title, and the government can seize the land for emminent domain.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 16, 2017, 01:43:26 AM
Need to travel? Got gold? You're fucked. Trade gold for cryptocurrency is required.

The revision of the First Cash Control Regulation from 2005, which stipulated that EU citizens should register cash in excess of € 10,000 when leaving the EU or when returning to the customs authorities have to, is what is under review. They want to lower the number and include gold, gemstones, and cash debit cards.

Interestingly, cryptocurrencies are not to be regarded as cash. Why? They are not sure how to detect them. The EU explanation reads: “Despite the high risk emanating from cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, these are not added to the cash. The reason for this is that the customs authorities lack the technical means to discover cryptocurrencies. “
14  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Dark Enlightenment on: December 12, 2017, 05:13:08 AM
Probably a genuine female hacker:

https://medium.com/@shelby_78386/enjoying-the-work-because-its-a-passion-and-not-just-because-of-the-workplace-environment-50c8f58d8de4
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto winter is coming again … on: December 11, 2017, 11:38:48 PM
Honestly, everyone knows there are bearish and bullish phases in any markets.
The problem is WHEN.

If you keep saying "I think the market is going to burst" when BTC is $10K, then eventually it bursts at $50K, you then say "I told you so."

IMHO, no, you haven't

Note the author of the OP followed up and made his prediction/expectation of when the crypto winter will come more concrete:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2550946.0
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto winter is coming again … on: December 11, 2017, 07:04:25 PM
So maybe new predictions from OP?

He is permanently banned, so he is not allowed to post ever again. If he posts again, he will be banned again.

Notice upthread he did mention the possibility of $10,000+ and even $50,000.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto winter is coming again … on: December 11, 2017, 01:44:33 AM
Crypto winter if it ever comes could be due to any one of the following reasons:

The 3rd one has the highest probability after we hit the $40k peak. But the bottom would be > $10k.

The last (4th) one [the Tether/Bitfinex collapse] may occur during the 3rd one, and may also include:

18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will BCH kill BTCSegWit while reinstating BTCSatoshi? on: December 11, 2017, 01:04:31 AM
Roger Ver is a scam artist that stole the Bitcoin brand name to springboard his Bcash altcoin. That is why he gets so offended when people take the word Bitcoin out of the name because it takes the power away from the "bait and switch" scam. My criticisms of Roger Ver have nothing to do with the non-"superiority" of BCH.

It’s always a power struggle nearer to the top. He obtained the Bitcoin.com domain by some means (seems there was drama about that also). He is monetizing his assets, including his stature of being a BTC whale and a very early adopter.

Why are y’all not criticizing Adam Back for coming into the scene much, much later than Ver and doing the same bait-and-switch fooling everyone into thinking that they must have insecure SegWit instead of larger blocks, so that Blockstream/Core could remain relevant? (who needs Core if we only need to increase the block size!)

Ver takes the stance that Bitcoin is partially his baby and he is pursuing the more straightforward design which is closest to Satoshi’s protocol. Why do those arrogant jerks such as Gregory Maxwell get a free pass? Is it because you can’t see who are the million BTC opportunists who are behind Core, i.e. Maxwell makes you less jealous because he does not have that much BTC?

There’s actually a psychological reason that most of the fools would prefer Core. Jealously. Monkeys eat cucumbers without problem until another monkey gets grapes, then they go fucking crazy due to jealousy. So having Jihan Wu (the evil China man with ASICBoost hiding on every Bitmain miner), Craig Wright (the Satoshi imposter), and technological neophyte Roger Ver(ifried) as the Mt. Rushmore Three Stooges figureheads on BCH makes everyone feel about the same as they feel about Trump leading the USA. They’re jealous socialists who want the pie to be shared with everyone as Marxist, and obfuscate it as they are embarrassed or offended. Don’t you realize your emotions are being played like a fiddle. Push all the greater fools onto Core by inciting the jealousy and Marxist tendencies of the most people, then fleece those sheep. It’s always the same outcome for humanity.

I’m not arguing the opportunists behind BCH are any more noble than those behind BTC(Core/SegWit). I’m against your emphasis about personalities/motivations as a justification for speculation, investing, and such. We know that everything in crypto is corruption and opportunism.

However, many ALT coins have the same "superior" properties that are being argued in support of BCH (big enough blocks so that are empty enough hich results in cheaper transaction fees). Yet here you are championing Bitcoin Cash. Why are you not championing any alt coins too?

BCH is the only one I know of which has the support of major miners and which is basically Satoshi’s protocol with an increased block size (and a faster difficulty readjustment to compete in the mining profitability war versus BTC’s slower adjustment).

I don’t champion BCH as a long-term or the best solution. I just think it is 3 - 5X better speculation at this time than BTC (especially now below 0.1 and at 0.07 recently, although it could possibly decline to $850 and 0.05 as the bottom which would increase the upside to 6 - 10X more than BTC).

I don’t champion any altcoin at this time. Everything has too many technological and game theory flaws. All I do is try to pick good speculations.

He said Bitcoin no longer has transactions "basically for free", but such transactions are unsustainable. There is no such thing as free transactions.

I think transaction fees on my project will decline to near 0, i.e. the cost of actually validating them! (But the game theory of this design needs to be peer reviewed)

It’s ridiculous the transaction fees of proof-of-work. I had to pay $30 to get my BTC transaction today to be confirmed within an hour. And the fees will be much higher before this BTC bubble is done. The issue of high fees is going to be another of the reasons the BTC bubble will collapse into a crypto winter.

And anyways... on-chain Bitcoin transactions are still really cheap. I sent a transaction the other day with a $0.50 transaction fee. The only thing that isn't cheap is if you want your transaction confirmed really quickly. But Bitcoin is not ideal for such transactions anyways (IE. buying coffee). See below...

Your $0.50 fee transaction would delay a day or more to confirm and this will get much worse soon.

You’re misleading the readers using the same sort of obfuscating deception that Core employs.

There are many reasons that we need our transaction to confirm within the 10 minute per confirmation period, such as doing a trade that the counter party has hedged and thus demands timely payment.

0-confirmations for coffee is not the only type of transaction that is hindered by an overloaded block capacity.

[…] and killing Bitcoin would be financial suicide by the miners. Thinking everyone will just cut their losses and switch to BCH after such an attack is wishful thinking on your part.

Nobody is going to successfully attack Bitcoin. Only SegWit donations would be taken (which are not Satoshi’s Bitcoin protocol) with a smile and thank you to all the retarded mofos who idolized Core.

Bitcoin will just keep humming along fine. No one that did not use an exchange nor SegWit, will ever have their BTC stolen by the miners. Only the willfully vulnerable mofos who use exchanges and allow SegWit lineage in their BTC are at risk, as they should be. They’ve been warned in this thread. No excuses any more.

Thinking everyone will just cut their losses and switch to BCH after such an attack is wishful thinking on your part.

I already told you upthread to read the thread title correctly. I never predicted that the SegWit attack would anoint BCH as Bitcoin.

The speculation on BCH is about its relative price rising as a consequence of for example BTC’s transaction fees skyrocketing and block period slowing to an hour.

Bcash is just an ALT coin, and whose to say another ALT coin will not be the main benefactor?

BTC(ore) is also an altcoin. The benefactor will be Bitcoin(Satoshi), which can be downloaded at The Real Bitcoin Foundation. (No it’s not a joke, remember what Google’s website looked like at its inception, it’s designed to deceive viewers so they’ll remain willfully ignorant sheep they prefer to be)

If you really want to talk about the HERE and NOW....

Who cares about making transactions via cryptocurrencies, really? They are a speculation vehicle based on their future utility once major adoption occurs. No one wants to buy their coffee in a neutral-inflation (or deflationary) cryptocurrency when they can buy it with the inflationary capital they have.

Agreed. Which is why this entire scaling nonsense from Core has just been a power grab.

As I wrote upthread, I’m very grateful for the drama and trading opportunities.

Yet there’s one group that does care about making transactions with cryptocurrencies. Specifically those who are using tokens for something they want to participate in. They’re not in it for investment; yet maybe the investors also want in it.

And that’s why we’ll not quickly get significant adoption (other than speculation on the future) without onboarding to the masses onto some activity (which requires cryptocurrency) other than just speculation. Steem has been a very illuminating experiment and now a Top 1000 website, but the details are mucked up a bit.

Try to live off of cryptocurrency only for a while and tell me how that works out. Hint: using a debit card or other service that converts crypto to FIAT is not living off of only cryptocurrency.

The most significant potential use cases of tokenization aren’t to pay for things I normally pay for with fiat. Rather for new paradigms that fiat can’t be used to pay for. The ChangeTip Must Die argument is incorrect, because who wants to maintain 100s of subscriptions!

But tipping is stupid. Steem tried to workaround the problem by making tipping free, but of course it is impossible to make free what is not free. So users need to get something of great value they need, when they tip. Ah I’m tell you too much about my project design.

Only Bcash FUDsters want to buy their coffee with cryptocurrency.

Sorry incorrect. Many reasons needed to send crypto transactions. I need fast and reliable crypto transactions. When BTC transactions slow down to an hour or more for the first confirmation, there will be a mad rush into BCH. We’ll see the price spike, and so goes the life of taking candy from babies.

Bitcoin's Network Effect will reign supreme in the short term.

Satoshi’s Bitcoin yes. SegWit I highly doubt it. It will die stillborn or die in a massive fiery donation festival.

The Bcash "idealists" have effectively already spent their war chest pumping Bcash from $300 to $1500. Notice it has been effectively stagnant since...

Wishful emotions, not rational analysis. They of course are earning more REAL Bitcoin all the time on the game. Account for all that BTC they’re spending on the exchanges, which they will take back in the chain reorganization and bankrupt the exchanges they wish to. Do you think the Zionists don’t have a plan on how they will crater the exchanges which refuse to delist ICO tokens when they go for the collapse of BTC with coordinated SEC+G20 securities regulators to collect their CME shorts and take millions of BTC. The new EU securities laws go into effect Jan 1, 2018. The massive contagion is being prepared.

Lol. Observe the next months.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin.com CEO Says Futures Will Drive Up Bitcoin Price on: December 10, 2017, 10:47:23 PM
LOL, futures will get raped by pure Bitcoin markets. While they are closed for the night/weekend/giftmas... Bitcoin exchanges truck on, and when it moves 10 or 20% during that time, futures will open with gaps and those on the wrong side will be ruined with losses and possibly owing above their account values. This will be great Smiley

CME futures only closed for 60 minutes per day, except closed weekends.

Don't you think traders will close positions before the weekend or appropriately hedge across that gap every weekend?

Also don’t you think the margin requirements will be appropriately computed on the high history of volatility of BTC?

You seem to presume these folks can’t do math.

But maybe you’re correct, that the margin requirements for safety are too high for most to play. However, if margin is provided in BTC that would be less onerous, e.g. miners hedging.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin.com CEO Says Futures Will Drive Up Bitcoin Price on: December 10, 2017, 08:47:40 PM
I don't believe that Roger Ver has converted the major part of his 'core coin' stash into his own crappy shitcoin. The only thing he did is dump his BCH's at peak levels, and bought back at significantly lower levels, ending up significantly increasing his BCH holdings. All in an attempt to alongside his fellow poisonous friends, be the few entities holding the far majority of the circulating BCH supply. It quite well explains how easily that market got bought up to +0.4 BTC levels, and then dumped down again. He is also desperately trying to convince noobs that his shitcoin is the real Bitcoin, but thus far without much success.

Rebuttal:

Okay then you were attacking Roger Ver in your comments, but in the following video he articulates a very compelling and simple reason why BCH is superior:

https://youtu.be/cJAAMtqXc5I?t=181

It’s a fact which I have stated many times. LN payer can’t send to everyone who has a BTC address. First the recipient must open+maintain a channel (which doesn’t scale well and will essentially end up as fractional reserve Mt. Box hubs). BCH payer can send to anyone who has an address and it has MUCH lower fees right now.

Pontificate about future scaling as much as you want (neither scale decentralized!) but here and now, Ver is factually correct.

P.S. given the potential gain for BTC from the current level is ~3X (or maybe 5X at an extreme to $100+k), the altcoins are likely to moon soon and gain on BTC, because most of them have 10+ X gains potential before the next crypto winter.

As for the extreme volatility of BCH, it’s likely because of all the n00bs who dump it for BTC because they want to donate their BTC to SegWit’s “pay to anymore” (but they don’t realize this yet like most sheep they will fall over the cliff together because they’re only aware of what they’ve been told which is to stay focused on what the other sheep are doing).

BCH spikes because the BTC mining difficulty resets too high (and won’t reset for at least 2 weeks or even longer as the hashrate leaves and block period slows down), then as BTC declines in price, it is more profit to mine BCH and this can lead to a spiral over a multi-week timeframe because the block periods on BTC can become much longer than 10 minutes if most of the hashrate moves over to BCH.

They care just about bitcoin cash anyway...

That’s not analysis. That is sheep behavior.
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