Crypto winter is coming again …

[Hyperme.sh]

Bitcoin is going much higher over the long-term, but there will likely be another Mt. Gox severity crash (perhaps not in November though, maybe early 2018), and I already provided a link to my thread which explains what that crisis could possibly be:

"corrections" are never big or epic or anything, they are always logical and properly sized.

Mt. Gox.

Will it happen again?

Mt. Gox had 75% of trading volume I think.

So if it happens again it can’t be an exchange. Has to be something else which is centralized.

Discussion continued.

Also this from James A. Donald, the first person who communicated with Satoshi on the mailing list where Bitcoin was announced:

A bad time to invest in Bitcoin
October 8th, 2017

Back in 2013 I urged people to invest in Bitcoin.

Yesterday someone asked my cleaning lady to invest in Bitcoin.

Now if someone had asked her to accept payment in Bitcoin, or send payment in Bitcoin, then this would be compelling evidence that one should invest in Bitcoin.

But when cleaning ladies are asked to invest in Bitcoin, not a good investment.

When Bitcoin began, everyone was a miner, and everyone was a peer, everyone stored the entire blockchain. Which was great, but did not scale. And now people are struggling with half assed ideas about how to get it to scale.  Bitcoin can no longer deliver on its original promises, has not figured out what new promises to make, and many of the new promises are unworkable, or are scams, or are likely to turn into scams.

Note I also advised others to invest in BTC back in 2013.

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[spazzdla]

Winter will come.. It will be very cold.. but is summer even over or is it the end of fall?

[Hyperme.sh]

Winter will come.. It will be very cold.. but is summer even over or is it the end of fall?

Difficult questions…

To be or not to be, that is the question.

Just take a Fukitol pill and forget about what I wrote.

[pooya87]

i wonder when will you start sharing "all" your bullshit i mean discussions
i still remember how you were struggling to make money around here by spamming all around the forum hyping up ETH and bashing BTC and having a love hate relationship with LTC...

you were saying "winter is coming" when price went to $1200 back in April and was calling all kinds of doomsday theories (just like now) and saying it will go back to $800.
suffice it to say that not only there has been no "winter" but also price went up to $1800 and the rest is history

i wonder how long will this account of yours last before you are banned again! maybe try spamming less this time, maybe you can last longer...

[Hyperme.sh]

Seems I have a psychotic cyberstalker following me around again…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberstalking

I suppose he will employ underhanded, sleazy tactics to try to shut up the messenger (maybe he is affiliated with Blockstream?), but this only increases the Streisand Effect thus defeating him.

i wonder when will you start sharing "all" your bullshit

I see no immediate winter predicted in the OP:

Bitcoin is going much higher over the long-term, but there will likely be another Mt. Gox severity crash (perhaps not in November though, maybe early 2018)

Once again, it’s possible I’m Chicken Little. So every reader should decide for himself the threat level he/she perceives to be reality. I’m not trying to sway anyone to do anything. I’m just sharing my thoughts and discussing.

@CoinCube noted about this threat that if it came true, then users who inadvertently double-spent BTC could be sued by exchanges and others and funds clawed back making everybody in the lineage chain responsible for the double-spent funds. A huge mess! That is why he thinks miners will never do it. He thinks there would be outrage in the community. But the whales, most of which who presumably know about this risk, have I think prepared. It’s the n00bs who are likely to be harmed and they’re not economically relevant anyway, their UAHF/community “vote” is not superior in the context of an economic majority. So being that I view myself as a defender of the honest underdog, I feel obligated to share this information.

As predicted:

it is pretty interesting that you became extra active as soon as bitcoin price broke the $5000 resistance and all your previous comments and topics have been with the same doom subject about bitcoin. it is as if you have missed the train

Aliasing error != information. You’re sampling below the Nyquist limit which means your perspective amounts to randomized noise.

Jealousan, there’s 100s of real BTC (not that insecure trash polluted with SegWit lineage) where I am.

Hope you find a useful activity or learn how to have civilized discussion. Or if you prefer flailing about chasing noise, then please find someone else’s time to waste.

I’ll be quoting this every time, if you ever address me in public again. Or ignoring you. Which ever seems more appropriate in the context.

Why would anything I write be interesting to you. Is it a fetish of some sort?


EDIT: do not lie. I have not stated doom about Bitcoin. I stated doom about SegWit (with no certain timeline), which is not Bitcoin. Can you even use accurate terminology? I have asked questions about what others think might be the future price action with questions containing very bullish potential prices such as $8000 or $10000. How did you equate that with bearishness at $5000     I guess you see whatever you want to see huh, even ghosts and moire patterns.

Would you like to make a cogent argument for the $10,000 is the new normal question I asked? Since it seems you’re offended by any ideas about taking profits? Are you scared to put your ass on the line?

[let me ridicule his screaming to everyone to buy LTC at $6 and invent aliasing error arguments to detract focus from his prediction which went to $85]

And your prediction was Bitcoin from $1250 to $5700? Are you arguing for $10,000 and thus 8X gain compared to the 16X gain in LTC. And LTC probably has another moon leg up also.

[Juggy777]

There nothing that really convinces that bitcoin is going down, or we will actually see winter coming, all you have used a got slogan to draw people attention, don't really think that it makes sense that just cause you said invest in 2013 now investing in Bitcoin is bad, I feel you have not really justified your claims, people are yet investing and people will continue to invest, you really need to add something substantial to your post for people to be convinced, currently I am not even one bit convinced, as I feel there is no imminent threat.

[Hyperme.sh]

I feel you have not really justified your claims

Which claim? The claim that SegWit is a donation to miners and can be stolen is not justified? Did you even read the technological analysis?

The crypto winter is coming (in no certain timeframe) claim hinges on the claims about SegWit. Or did you not even read and understand that?

[pooya87]

Keep fucking with me:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2268216.msg22985376#msg22985376

And you’re going to learn a lesson that you will never be able to forget.

LOL, why?
just because you keep spreading FUD and i pointed out one of many?

have fun though.

[KLONE]

I feel you have not really justified your claims

Which claim? The claim that SegWit is a donation to miners and can be stolen is not justified? Did you even read the technological analysis?

The crypto winter is coming (in no certain timeframe) claim hinges on the claims about SegWit. Or did you not even read and understand that?

@Hyperme.sh, how can regular BTC users protect themselves from SegWit coins? I use Electrum, and most of my bitcoins are older than the start of SegWit, but how can I check the status of bitcoins transferred into my Electrum wallet since SegWit started?

Is there a way to 'de-SegWit' bitcoins, maybe by sending to myself in an old wallet? I take your advice seriously, and want to avoid having my stash SegWitled away by miners.

[Hyperme.sh]

@Hyperme.sh, how can regular BTC users protect themselves from SegWit coins? I use Electrum, and most of my bitcoins are older than the start of SegWit, but how can I check the status of bitcoins transferred into my Electrum wallet since SegWit started?

Is there a way to 'de-SegWit' bitcoins, maybe by sending to myself in an old wallet? I take your advice seriously, and want to avoid having my stash SegWitled away by miners.

This is all I know, and I don’t know much about Bitcoin wallets. Hopefully someone else can offer better insights.

The point of discussing is to crowd source information.

[KLONE]

@Hyperme.sh, how can regular BTC users protect themselves from SegWit coins? I use Electrum, and most of my bitcoins are older than the start of SegWit, but how can I check the status of bitcoins transferred into my Electrum wallet since SegWit started?

Is there a way to 'de-SegWit' bitcoins, maybe by sending to myself in an old wallet? I take your advice seriously, and want to avoid having my stash SegWitled away by miners.

This is all I know, and I don’t know much about Bitcoin wallets. Hopefully someone else can offer better insights.

The point of discussing is to crowd source information.

I'm sort of freaking about this possibility now, and dble freaking at the lack of freaking out by most other crypto users.

Thanks for explaining the risks at play!!

[Hyperme.sh]

I'm sort of freaking about this possibility now, and dble freaking at the lack of freaking out by most other crypto users.

That’s exactly what I felt. I couldn’t understand why everyone was ignoring this.

But then we have obstructionists like @poorya87, who (entirely not in the spirit of the censorship-resistance and meritocracy-not-democracy of crypto and blockchains) feel it is their duty to alert mods to ban anyone who tries to inject this sort information into the public discourse. I guess he failed to noticed that @Theymos probably realized I’m valuable (<--- my first post as Hyperme.sh). Who can prove who I am? Circumstantial evidence is not proof. Besides you can’t ban a hacker, lol. Any one can claim to be anybody. Who am I any way? I haven’t cryptographically signed anything on any BCT account. (Lol, they once asked me to sign and I laughed)

Even if I am wrong in the end, I think it is still important to have open dialogue.

Thanks for explaining the risks at play!!

I feel good when my effort is appreciated.


I would really feel crummy for noble Bitcoin supporters (who form the backbone of our diversified ecosystem, but I would enjoy seeing intransigent fools) to lose any BTC because they were not given access to this threat data, no matter how large or small the actual threat may be.

I am not intending to raise FUD. How else can I get the attention of readers and get the information to them? Readers have short attention spans and there is so much information competing for their attention. And typically the issues I write about require reading walls of text that explain the details. Although I do try to summarize, the summaries tend to cause readers to miss some facets which then cause them to not fully appreciate the issues.

It is not like I just suddenly, intransigently, and impetuously dropped a bomb. I wrote two Steemit blogs about this issue in August. Then I set it aside and allowed more time to collect more information, reflect, and collect more discussion with others. Then after starting one thread on it this week on BCT, to see if anyone could blow in any large holes in it, it was only after all that then I made a thread like this.

[Denker]

Oh yeah crypto winter is coming. Sooner or later.
And you know what? I don't think it will last that long it won'tl be "so cold".
And after that? You wanna guess again? Right, summer will come again.
So what exactly is your point??

[hase0278]

Oh yeah crypto winter is coming. Sooner or later.
And you know what? I don't think it will last that long it won'tl be "so cold".
And after that? You wanna guess again? Right, summer will come again.
So what exactly is your point??

You are right so there is nothing to worry about even if the winter is coming soon. If it really did come then there's only one thing needed to do in order to profit when summer comes again, and that is to hard bitcoin again. That being said, it is a nice time to unload little by little this time before this expected crypto winter. The question though is when will it happen? For now my guess is that it might come before December ends.

[fabiorem]

Another day, another high, and another bitcoin hater spreading FUD to stop it.

[Lancusters]

Another day, another high, and another bitcoin hater spreading FUD to stop it.

I don't understand the meaning of such predictions. Who listens to them. Even FUD to ban cryptocurrency in China had no effect. The price of bitcoin has dipped but I think that it was only at the expense of the whales. Ordinary users holding their coins. We don't have a lot of free money to buy up all the coins from whales. Therefore bitcoin so long kept down. Now there is no sense to sell because bitcoin is only the beginning of its rise.

[monkeymustache]

What you call winter here would still be a beautiful summer. Even if the price drops down to 2000$, I would be satisfied with the money I made investing in bitcoin in 2017. Sure a lot of people would have lose money, but that is on them for selling. If bitcoin would have only reached 2000$ now, everyone would still say that they made huge gains, that its a bubble, and that were going to the moon.

So crypto winter or not, I am holding tight and we'll be patiently waiting for next summer with new all time highs. My spaceship is going to the sun baby.

[1Referee]

Another day, another high, and another bitcoin hater spreading FUD to stop it.

It's not even fud, it's just empty speculation, and that's really it. If we look at one entity here spreading fud, and is quite a senior shill at the same time, then the honorable mention goes out to kwukduck. He probably hopes that a few newbies here add value to his legendary account status, in combination with his register date, and thus take everything he is writing here for granted. That delusional troll has started with spreading fud at the time the price was just a few hundred bucks, and look where we are today. It doesn't work. I however don't believe he is actually against Bitcoin, he just acts like a complete imbecile to troll everyone here.

[hatshepsut93]

A bad time to invest in Bitcoin
October 8th, 2017

Back in 2013 I urged people to invest in Bitcoin.

Yesterday someone asked my cleaning lady to invest in Bitcoin.

Now if someone had asked her to accept payment in Bitcoin, or send payment in Bitcoin, then this would be compelling evidence that one should invest in Bitcoin.

But when cleaning ladies are asked to invest in Bitcoin, not a good investment.

When Bitcoin began, everyone was a miner, and everyone was a peer, everyone stored the entire blockchain. Which was great, but did not scale. And now people are struggling with half assed ideas about how to get it to scale.  Bitcoin can no longer deliver on its original promises, has not figured out what new promises to make, and many of the new promises are unworkable, or are scams, or are likely to turn into scams.

Right, basing investment decisions on personal anecdotes, sounds very intelligent and professional. If you look at the current bull run that last for close to two years now, you'll notice that a lot of growth was happening in a very quick spikes, which means that it was caused by small groups of investors deciding to make big buys - if it was "cleaning ladies" who were behind this rally, the chart would be more smooth. And it's a lie that Bitcoin can't deliver on its promises, it has promised decentralized permissionless payment system and that's exactly what we have for 8 years already - Satoshi didn't say that transactions will be instant and free and that it will process million transactions per second.

[dothebeats]

No signs of what you are stating. Also, the markets are decentralized and distributed more than ever given that many players are now in the game and it's not China vs the West anymore, so I don't see where you get your 'something centralized' that's gonna crash. Tbh with you none of your statements seem compelling in any way unless you have some reliable data for your claims.