Any info on the current network situation ? Khashier showing old data. Transactions not getting through.

If the ID and the theft is confirmed, Jeremy Hise (Chappaqua, New York), I'd loooooove to learn more about what will become of him.

I'm not in the US. If it were to happen in my country, I'd TOTALLY go ahead and do what's legally possible : at least let the employers know what he's accused of and investigate, let the family and their employers know (also include school directors if he has kids). If they're wise, they'd investigate... and take proper actions. No matter my situation, no matter how much I'm involved in the story, that's everyone's right.

Nothing would please me more -again if that's him- than to know he's going down, deep down, bite the dust, possibly killing himself. We will live in an unfair world and it may no be so nice. There's a chance -again if that's him- that he will do even more damage and go on a killing spree.

<off topic> Justice in so-called developed countries is way too gentle with repeat offenders (thieves) : nothing will be more fair than to have at least one of his hand cut off.  </off topic>

Woof YAS (yet another scam).

People die for unimaginable reasons. Even that ice bucket challenge! (was an accident though)

How long until one of those scammer gets killed?

Buttcoin magic beans is a failure as a currency, had it been created for that purpose.

Buttoinc is pathological gamblers' worst nightmare

Buttoinc is scamers' and hackers' dream.

Buttoinc had the potential to be a international money transfer alternative for individuals and tiny amounts (< $ 10k/month, ie salary transfer without taxes, resulting in m/b-illions of $ losses for the countries involved).

With more regulations (=limiting its use), with less (honest!) exchanges and with more and more scams, and also thanks to price dropping, buttcoin will fade away : market cap $ 100M (2% of current) one year from now. But number of transaction etc will remain more or less the same for indefinite period of time.

Eventually if not already it will be used only for gambling and scamming.

So yeah, bitcoin is a failure except for a few hundred people:
- early hoarders / miners
- scammers/hackers

Very good analysis bodgybrothers.
Time to find the man(L)Gerr and their families, and offer them a one way ticket to ISIS-recreation park.

Let me give you the answer you're waiting for, because I can read ManLoL's mind.

"I'm sorry I tried to steal 650 BTC. I just wanted to leave my mom's basement (and buy some hookers)".

I was just joking.

It looks ok and legit. I am investing 1'000 BTC.

I have read the title of this thread, nothing more. I just hope few will read my signature.

Epic


edit: ManLoL, you'll get my FULL trust when 1000btc land here. You've set a new standard for assuming how people can be stupid. So I'm not ashamed at all to beg ;P

AHAHAHAHHA MaNteoL was LEGIT !!!

Can't wait to see BR go poof tomorrow! Only this time someone will finally have the guts of tracking your sorry ass down in a shithole, say like Israel, Ukraine or Russia. (no offense to the nice people of these countries).

MantL I am just begging to be bashed by you, nothing would please me more than you wasting time for me =)

My post is in my signature. Nuff' said.

Since the bat shit about signatures campaign is at least as useless as the shitstorm of math in thread, I allow myself to reply to dooglus' post here. Again, pure technicalities.

I made an obvious mistake. I had another piece of code in mind (if nicolaennio allows me, I'll publish it).
Indeed there's no stopping condition on the number of bet in this model. If the random number generator was biased (evenly distributed around 0.495) or if the criterion was "< 0.5", the betting maybe could go forever (Nerds: with what probability?). It would be indeed be interesting do modify the code to capture the number of bets until bust either side (a.k.a. survival time). With max bet size, I expect it to be very short. (Nerds: what is the distribution of that number?   )

That's right ! And all the rest of the discussion rely on the definition of event and all the IF's rely on the available information or the information we decide to include to our model(s). In mathematical terms, it translates to conditions.

P( Event ¦ Information )       (conditional probability)

In my previous analysis, I mentioned three(+doog's) of such expressions. For me (I seem to be alone), the probability I) is the first that came into my mind, seemed the most natural to me. Others might have different opinion. Nobody's right or wrong, we just have different views on how to approach a problem with an open question, a non mathematical question.

Nahh, I was childish.. after all
</sarcasm>. Back to "topic"

And you, your signature greedy fuck ! (sorry for language)

Aaaa'right, here I come again. As someone said, all that mathshit obfuscates the reality of what happened.

It will be slightly over too much, certainly off-topic, but I am only writing this partial analysis for entertainment, for personal interest and for educational purposes May contain errors.

 
The event

Mateonl robbed the bank.

The question (?)

How lucky was he ? Very. That's a non mathematical question, so that's a non mathematical answer.

To push the analysis a little bit further, one needs to consider two (ideally mutually exclusive) answers
a) he was just lucky,
b) he was way too lucky, game was rigged.

"Methodology"

To decide between a) and b), we need to
- ask a mathematical question "What is the probability P that... "
- fix a limit number P0 such that if P>P0, well conclude that it was luck, if P<=P0, we'll conclude that  it was rigged
- compute P, decide.
Ain'no Joe Got' Time fo Dat!

Before formulating zee questions and the before zee Germans arrive, I spy with my little eye
Three Approaches to answer a "what is the probability..." question
1) statistical study based on observations
2) choosing a model and making a statistical study based on simulations
3) choosing a model and perform a mathematical analysis (purely theoretical approach)

Depending on the problem and the amount of information and knowledge available, each approach has its own benefits and drawbacks. In a perfect world, if we do a good job, 1) and 2) and 3) should be all consistent.

About approach 1, since we've seen only one mateonl guy rob the bank only one time, our sample size is two or at best two (Nakowa's case, should they be comparable). From a purely observational point of view, no conclusions can be made with only one observation other than "the observations show that if you bet like manlteo and have the same initial fund, you WILL rob the bank". Well, good luck with that!

Do we all appreciate the elegant Simplicity of simulations and the strange Beauty of statistical theory.  Yes ? No ?!   Doesn't matter, I'll do none of'em anymore.


Assumptions, available information and the probability questions


Ok we're choosing a model. Ideally, it should be as close as possible to the reality. All bets are @49.5%.  That's our model, but also the reality. Lucky us.

Mateonl has a finite initial fund. So he can bust. And our probability will depend on that  parameter which is.... tuduuu unknown. At all time, bankroll cannot go in the negative. So bank can bust too. Recall that, obviously, mateo didn't bust. Indeed, if he did, he would have stopped on a loss, which is  not what happened. From a probabilistic point of view, these two statements must be taken into account, I don't repeat them below.

For the sake of simplicity, many approximations are to be made, among which : now new  investments in the bankroll and no withdrawals were made during the bets, no other whale neither etc etc. I also wrote numbers out my memory, just for illustration.

The questions

I will formulate two seemingly similar questions.

I) Given this list of bets which are all realized (in this order)
5k bets at 7
5k bets at 3
25k bets at 1
25k bets at 0.5
what is the probability to end up wining 85% or more* of the initial bankroll ?
*(if we are in the mindset of thinking "what is the probability to be at least as lucky as mantoel")

II) Given this list of bets which are realized (in this order) so long as the bankroll contains more or just 15%  of the initial bankroll:
at most 5k bets at 7
then at most 5k bets at 3
then at most 25k bets at 1
then at most 25k bets at 0.5
what is the probability to end up wining 85% of the initial bankroll ?

One can arguably say for question I) that it allows the bankroll to go under 15% of its initial state, which is not exactly what we saw happening. But again, if we think of the probability "betting like maeto did, to be luckier than him" as "to win more than 85% of iBR " it is a reasonnable assumption.

Similarly for question II) it allows the betting to finish before 60k bets, which is not exactly what we saw happening. But again, if we think of the probability "betting like maeto did, to be luckier than him" as "to win .xx. btc quicker than him " it is a reasonnable assumption.

Mmh strange.. none of those replicates what we saw!!! Let's take the two conditions into account: what is the probability to make exactly 60k bets like he did, win exactly 85% BR, BR never go under 15% before the end. Given the large number of bets, I think that modelling this would involve a massive shitload of combinatorial arguments (partitioning of numbers). Approximation would probably be the way to go... but let's stick with I) and/or II) and... ?

Now about dooglus' simulation, the probability he finds is the answer (I think) to this question :

III) Given that
- all bets are continuously updated at the maximum bet size (which is 0.5% of bankroll) all the time at most 60k times,
- betting stops if bankroll reaches 15% of initial BR,
what is the probability to win 85% of the initial bankroll ?

This formulation does not make use of the available information about matnl bets. So it'd be of interest to answer this question: betting at max bet at most 60k times, what is the prob to be as lucky as him (in other words, to win exactly what he won).

This last question is of interest essentialy for the casino only as it will help determine the probability of ruin or survival time to a whale (who'd bet only @49.5% .. mmh).

This is just three out of a quazillion choices. But they each help to answer slightly different questions.

You might wonder "what is the probability to end up wining 85% (or 100%) of the initial bankroll ?" without any restriction on the betting strategy. Well it's a Gogol-fucking-infinitely complex question as it involves all allowed betting strategies. Remember your math course ?
P(win 85%) = P(win 85%|Strategy1)P(Strategy1) + ... +P(win 85%|Strategy-BIG)P(StrategyBIG).

I'm done here...

I did some biiiig simplifications on my previous posts and estimates, where I choose the analytical approach. Its power is limited with more complex models..

aaaaaand .... again. No way to verify all bets as the data will come from the author itself.

About these off blockchain casinos, nothing will prevent site ops of making up magical bankroll or running away with investors fund.

Gamblers: you need (to develop) a browser plug in to check bets in a automated process.  Any rational gambler would check the code himself.

"Alleged" scammers (=casinos) count on the fact that you can't (manually) check tons of data (you're not even able to collect).

He(or they) is laughing reading us, he's getting high on C and H and weed. He's fucking (underaged) boys and girls right now...

If you're planing to waste the guy(s), better go torchat directly ;P

edit: but be cautious... GUYS... he could as well come here (with a new account ) and present himself as a (fake) victim and ... fuck you over again :/

That Kelly troll shit has to end! .. it does NOT apply to a gambler gambling in a casino with a positive house edge!

To pull out that graph for manteol, one needs to know each of his bets...not likely to be available in this eon. Yea we could suppose
all at 49.5%
1k at 7btc
12.5k at 2btc
33k at 1btc etc etc you get the idea... but to put into perspective with my previous analysis... here's what world's luckiest gambler managed to do (Attention: profit/loss is reversed with PeterR's graph) :