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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2023, 05:19:32 PM
Regarding ColdKey, the project may look cool and satisfy some coiners' egos or whatever, but from the very beginning it was an idea based on trusting the creator, which is an instant no-no when it comes to Bitcoin. I personally would not trust my keys to anyone (not even my parents or siblings or GF/wife or whoever else). Not because I don't love them or trust them in the general sense. But it is a fact that all of us are human beings and are thus prone to mistakes and weaknesses, which can lead to compromising the security of whatever it is we want to protect.

When it comes to Bitcoin, you keep a low profile, NEVER reveal your keys to ANYONE, never advertise specific amounts or even ownership of any coins, never brag about how rich you are, and never compromise your OPSEC.

There's no need for ColdKeys. The best ColdKey is stored in our neurons, and should stay in there, and stay immaterial. Just like Bitcoin.
I agree with everything you've wrote, but I disagree if you wouldn't trust anyone with your keys because we're humans, we're not eternal in this world and we don't know when we left this world.

I don't think you would abandon all of your money you've make until right now, there's must be someone need to take over your Bitcoin and continue your journey to hold it.

At least your child need to know your keys, of course after they're matured, know about Bitcoin and already understand about money management.

If you die without giving the keys to anyone, the value of your stash will be distributed among all existing Bitcoiners...

I suspect frozen stale addresses with no outgoing withdrawals will one day be forfeited and add to mining rewards. Maybe starting in 2064 as the 2009 transaction would be 55 years old.

So never having a death plan for your coins means they will likely go back to miners one day.

Why? There's no benefit to that as the exact number of outstanding Bitcoin is irrelevant and in fact it would be a form of central planning is they would be sssigned to a particular group (miners in your example).

In fact, Satoshi said all lost bitcoin should be seen as a donation to everyone else.

If someone does this it will just create another BSV shitcoin 😅
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2023, 06:21:36 PM
@DU09BTC
🚨  This is the first bear market where #Bitcoin  was scooped up no matter the price.

Look at the green line. It's at ATH!  🚀

15 mil #BTC  is being stored in cold wallets. That is 78% of all #BTC 

Only 4 mil left for the rest + 2 mil to be mined. Not much.

The future is bright.
https://twitter.com/du09btc/status/1613161469369286656



That's because there was no blow off peak this time. No clear overvaluation means no reason to sell for accumulators.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2022, 06:48:05 PM
The rumors are they holding 635,000 BTC

It is not a rumor that Grayscale has over 600k BTC in its possession, as well as a bunch of altcoins that have allegedly already been dumped or are doing so recently. Anyway, who still believes in some irrelevant Twitter account specializing in FUD, who invites his followers to his Telegram channel where he is obviously trying to sell them some super cool projects?

Some how you are absolutely right about this Twitter account, full of bs!


https://twitter.com/WhaleChart/status/1607633485719633920

Nonsense, of course it's Nick Szabo.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2022, 01:45:47 PM
sry couldn't find the article that I read anymore...

but here is an older one from summer:
https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/texas-bitcoin-miners-paid-shut-down-power-grid-electricity-blackout-heat/

Sorry, it’s behind a paywall.

That's what 12ft.io is for.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2022, 05:03:06 PM

It's not strange if we take into account that the penalty kick was not checked with VAR, and neither was the one I think was in the match against Poland. It is also not strange if we take into account which referees FIFA assigned for that match, and these are the same ones who sat in the VAR room during the final between Croatia and France 4 years ago, with the help of the corrupt chief referee of course - the whole world saw it.

There is no doubt that Argentina was better in last night's game, but as a nation you didn't really show that you know how to behave appropriately neither when you win nor when you lose - the Croatian jerseys that your players received ended up in the trash can, just like the Mexican ones before that - it is shameful behavior.

It was a clear penalty. No need to check VAR. It's called Obstruction. The keeper prevented Alvarez from doing a follow-up, hitting him without even touching the ball.
Check the video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1602758084157329410, and look how the keeper opens his right leg, even when Alvarez already passed by.


You are talking nonsense. Jerseys are cherished and valued.

And when a team ("nation") shows respect before and during the match, it's respected after it.







A direct free kick in the penalty box is a penalty.
An indirect free kick in the penalty box is not a penalty but simply an indirect free kick in the penalty box where the foul was made.

The penalty for obstruction is an indirect free kick. Hence this WASNT a penalty.

Btw the same is true for kicking too high.

Refereer seem to have forgotten the indirect free kick in the box measure fox anything except when the keeper pick up a bankpassen, erronously choosing between giving a penalty or giving nothing.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2022, 06:15:28 PM

And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.


I promise I will stop making this point over and over, but  I am going to try one last time.

Lightning (or ANY OTHER scaling layer/solution) cannot 'kill off mining'.  It's sort of a catch 22 but positive.

You only need lightning if blocks are full (and for instant settlement).  If blocks are not full people will not need to use lightning.

Lightning will KEEP blocks full.  Lightning service providers are going to compete on the base layer to write settlement transactions.  For the entire world!

Individual users are not going to want to pay the sort of fees necessary to keep miners supported as the subsidy wanes, but layer 2 service provider certainly will.

I honestly cannot figure out how you are scared by this.

_edit_ as a matter of fact we are seeing this play out right now.  Blocks are super full with a mucilaginous backlog (thanks to Binance and people pulling stuff off exchanges?)  If I need to make a transaction I am definitely going to want to do it over lightning if I can.  So lightning is NOT killing the miners.  It is saving the individual.

Indeed. The free market will simply find an equilibrium and gravitate to it.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 16, 2022, 12:31:09 AM


Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

Just as he says, time is ticking. I bought when I was 32 and now I am 41. I still live the same life as with 32. No luxury, no gold digger chicks, nothing. And then I also wonder wtf is going on with those YouTube morons like “the moon” who got in in 2017 I believe and is a multi millionaire driving Bugattis and shit while I got in in 2013 and still driving an 2007 BMW. I must have done something very wrong lol. Ok I don’t have an eye on luxury. But a decent Porsche is something I earned after 9 years of holding through the wildest swings.

If you want to sell some because you want to spend the proceeds now or very soon that is different from selling 30-40% indiscriminately for no real reason (except "price swings are scary").

Again: do as you wish. Just gave my opinion on the matter.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2022, 11:58:05 PM


Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

not in need of funds and not selling before roughly 3X from here, but will not wait for 150K.

30-40% under 50k? That's quite a waste if you're not in need of liquidity (imo, of course up to you).

At least make sure not to sell early and then later FOMO back in (right below the top).
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2022, 10:53:51 PM


Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 15, 2022, 10:17:34 PM


Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.


You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 11, 2022, 05:29:11 PM
SBF

I still don't know why we need to care about this shitcoining douchenozzle and why it's taking up pages of WO... can anyone please ELI5 the relevance to Bitcoin?

Because it affects price (short term).

Dumb people losing their money because they deposited it with this shady exchange have lost liquidity which is subsequently removed from supporting the Btc price. On top of that speculators saw this coming and are front running like crazy. Next up momentum speculators.

Sit on your hands and you'll be fine but this topic is about price (and the buy and sell walls) so the content is OT.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 10, 2022, 05:11:20 PM


Take the 105,000 block moving geometric mean, multiply it by the blue sinusoid which has a period of 210,000 blocks (one halving).  You get the red trace.
Vertical lines mark halvings.


How did you construct the sinusoidal? (It's decreasing)
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2022, 03:20:53 PM
Your closest mate who have a good so called career, working 9 to 5 and very happy with everything. He never had interest with crypto even watching you addicted with bitcoin.

How would you react
When suddenly he calls you and ask how to buy dogecoin?
When you ask the reason of why dogecoin? He reply, "Elon mask bought Twitter and he can use dogegoin" 😂

Observing @ $20,550

And you think your friend is stupid.

As I have said time and time again there is a place for LTC/Doge

but maybe  not here in this thread.
No, he is not!
He has a PhD in IT LOL

If he wants to buy dogecoin he's definitely stupid. I also have a PhD in CS. As any credentials no guarentee you're not stupid Wink

Just send him https://medium.com/lux-initiative/bitcoin-the-libertarian-introduction-c616edd8496c from 2012 (mirror link, original is down). At that point he either gets it or he doesn't.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2022, 12:48:54 AM


99.99% Uptime?

Where’s 0.01%? Why not 100%?

 Yeah I remember there was an unexpected fork that happened in 2013 right around the time I was trying to figure out bitcoin.  It caused some downtime.



March 11th orphan blocks were slow.
Doubters panicked and let their Bitcoins go.
I took my chances
Took out all the loan advances
Now I'm holding for the longest time 😉

you got your fair reward for not being a doubter at that time


Sorry was just referencing a song from the time about the event you described: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w

Apparently it was "scooping all the loan advances" I misremembered 😅
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2022, 09:13:14 PM


99.99% Uptime?

Where’s 0.01%? Why not 100%?

 Yeah I remember there was an unexpected fork that happened in 2013 right around the time I was trying to figure out bitcoin.  It caused some downtime.



March 11th orphan blocks were slow.
Doubters panicked and let their Bitcoins go.
I took my chances
Took out all the loan advances
Now I'm holding for the longest time 😉
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 19, 2022, 05:51:03 PM
Not sure when this is from but gas price comparison across Europe.



Can't help but notice those governments who complain about Russia the most are also forcing its citizens to pay the most.

The Netherlands sits on the largest natural gas field in Europe but that also doesn't help gas prices there. Much of it closed after light earthquakes but Germany is still getting some.


-----

Over the last 25 years The Netherlands spent 600 billion Euros on immigration & over the last 70 years the government made around 420 billion Euros from this largest gas field in Europe.
It is estimated between 2020-2040 The Netherlands will spend another 600 billion Euros on immigration.

Understand why governments are broke now, why citizens are starting to go broke and why BTC isn't rising at the moment?

The left want more hotels to be converted to immigration centres and the greens want you to go cold. People keep voting conservative but the greens and left wingers under direction of the WEF constantly get their way.

 Roll Eyes

And yet...

Quote
The Netherlands as the world's fifth happiest country

 This year sees the country achieve a score of 7,415 out of 10. Interestingly, researchers found that 97,6 percent of respondents from the Netherlands felt at peace with their life, while 86,9 percent felt the various aspects of their lives were in balance.

https://www.iamexpat.nl/expat-info/dutch-expat-news/netherlands-once-again-one-happiest-countries-world


Quote
Why is the Netherlands a happy country?
This is due to the citizen's employment satisfaction, social support, mental health and well-being. The Netherlands has performed well in the generosity index, GDP per capita, social support, and the corruption index, making it one of the least corrupt European countries next to Finland and Denmark.

https://allaboutexpats.nl/top-10-happiest-countries-netherlands/

Ask yourself who did that study and how they measure it. Societies where the social norm is to be more positive about your happiness always come out on top. It says nothing.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2022, 11:04:34 PM
Thanks for the link. While I dont see the problem with this particular piece of information not being archived I'm still not happy about the precedent this set. Especially since these sort of things typically tend to encroach more and more. I'd wish they'd just backup everything (especially text) and reside in a jurisdiction where they can.

Precisely. It's not about the data itself (though one wonders what they are hiding*), more whether you're comfortable with the line that has been crossed. It's very damaging to trust, especially having seen how things play out in the current climate.

*From what I understand, she has a familial connection (niece) with the person who runs archive.org.

It's worth noting that there are alternatives but one should always be vigilant.

I'm not aware of alternatives on (or near) par with archive.org. Would you please share them?
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2022, 06:54:55 PM
archive.org has been caught removing archives recently so you may want to pick another.

Do you happen to have a link to that news? Otherwise I'll have to go look.

Would be sad. Only big charity worldwide worthy of respect for. Hope that number's not reduced to zero.

https://search.brave.com/search?q=archive.org+removes+tweets+taylor+lorenz&source=web

Thanks for the link. While I dont see the problem with this particular piece of information not being archived I'm still not happy about the precedent this set. Especially since these sort of things typically tend to encroach more and more. I'd wish they'd just backup everything (especially text) and reside in a jurisdiction where they can.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2022, 02:38:57 PM
If you want to give to charity consider archive.org . It preserves history making it harder to rewrite history as one desires.

archive.org has been caught removing archives recently so you may want to pick another.

Do you happen to have a link to that news? Otherwise I'll have to go look.

Would be sad. Only big charity worldwide worthy of respect for. Hope that number's not reduced to zero.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 13, 2022, 01:31:33 PM

Untrue. What is written is controlled by gatekeepers with a very obvious political affiliation.

If you want to give to charity consider archive.org . It preserves history making it harder to rewrite history as one desires.
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