Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  

mempool is over 120mb for the last two days!.. my node is showing 250MB with 20,500 unconfirmed transaction... not getting confirmed for a while.. i have 2 pending transaction (1sat/vbyte)!..

and average confirm time today is about 70mins....

Use LN!

Damn, so much traffic on the bitcoin highway this week.
I am transferring from Ledger to Ledger, not sure how LN works.

EDIT: Just realized, I am now a legendary member 

 Congratulations!

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  .
BTW, it is not the fault of bitcoin itself, just human folly and greed (and infatuation with supposedly more 'advanced' shitcoins).

Plus, we need a mechanism that explicitly prevents fake bitcoin 'printing'. No entity should be able to say that they have bitcoin if they don't have a "physical one", and if not, then, as someone said here (sorry can't recall the name) it is "stonks 2.0".

EDIT: btw, here is an interesting article suggesting that we should increase our bitcoin usage and not only focus on hodling:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/for-bitcoin-to-be-true-digital-cash

"We" do not need to do anything other than what we are already doing.

Bitcoin is not broken.

There are peeps doing all kinds of shit in bitcoin.  Had you not noticed? 

Oh you want peeps to do more?

Why don't you fund it out of your 20 BTC.. starting today.. you can start drawing 4% per year from your 20 BTC and build upon bitcoin.. if you think that something needs to be done that is not currently happening as rapidly as you would prefer.

LTC/DOGE  = smaller money.

Fuck Shitcoins.

Just practicing, for reals.

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay.  

mempool is over 120mb for the last two days!.. my node is showing 250MB with 20,500 unconfirmed transaction... not getting confirmed for a while.. i have 2 pending transaction (1sat/vbyte)!..
and average confirm time today is about 70mins....
Use LN!

Damn, so much traffic on the bitcoin highway this week.
I am transferring from Ledger to Ledger, not sure how LN works.
EDIT: Just realized, I am now a legendary member  

congrats on new status!... "Use LN" was a sly joke
EDIT: at times like this.. avoid sending on layer 1... i sent those pending transaction (Opened new LN Channels) 1 hours before the mempool started climbing.... last 3 days have been very slow on block confirmation.. could be miners shutting down rigs?...

Loyce also posted on the topic yesterday in the "consolidate your UTXOs thread"

[LDL]

My bitcoin transaction on SEGWIT taking more than 20 minutes to complete with 60% fees overpay. 

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/mempool-size

[cAPSLOCK]

And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

I promise I will stop making this point over and over, but  I am going to try one last time.

Lightning (or ANY OTHER scaling layer/solution) cannot 'kill off mining'.  It's sort of a catch 22 but positive.

You only need lightning if blocks are full (and for instant settlement).  If blocks are not full people will not need to use lightning.

Lightning will KEEP blocks full.  Lightning service providers are going to compete on the base layer to write settlement transactions.  For the entire world!

Individual users are not going to want to pay the sort of fees necessary to keep miners supported as the subsidy wanes, but layer 2 service provider certainly will.

I honestly cannot figure out how you are scared by this.

_edit_ as a matter of fact we are seeing this play out right now.  Blocks are super full with a mucilaginous backlog (thanks to Binance and people pulling stuff off exchanges?)  If I need to make a transaction I am definitely going to want to do it over lightning if I can.  So lightning is NOT killing the miners.  It is saving the individual.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[strawbs]

Damn, so much traffic on the bitcoin highway this week.
I am transferring from Ledger to Ledger, not sure how LN works.

EDIT: Just realized, I am now a legendary member 

Hey, congrats! Two of us in the same week 

[JayJuanGee]

So ...

Just flow with me here for a sec... What if this whole FTX thing was really a set-up.  Powers that be come in... got SB-F hooked on SOMETHING.  Have you seen the videos of him vibrating like a diesel engine?  Then nudge him further and further into the red 'till they set up the collapse.  Have legislation ready in the countries they control to try to bring the whole thing down over a few weeks...

Nah.  Just a ponzi prolly.

I'm just going to quote this from time to time until I either come out dead wrong, or...

Well let's hope for dead wrong.

Occam's razor says that greed and stupidity of hoi polloi is far more powerful than any lizard conspiracy could hope to be.

Not this time.

  I just read an article about this "Effective Altruism" movement and I don't think you can even dissect this particular event with Occam's razor without cutting yourself in the process.  The "hoi palloi" got nothing on these fuckin' unstable freaks-on-crank trying to maximize "good" without even knowing what "good" looks like.   Not only did they belong to an elitist organization (who, for the most part, look specifically like turtles with bad teeth rather than the more general "reptilian" description) but they were also able to garner a membership into a global cabal of other "reptilians" who consider themselves "elite" in order to pull this off (referring to the "invite only" WEF here).  They were able to gain credibility and influence by linking themselves with other well-known members of that organization publicly to gain the trust of the "hoi palloi", steal their money and use it to buy themselves even more influence and a private jet so they could do "good" at a frenetic pace.  

Spoiler alert:  The final paragraph of the article below and they don't even say he's a sociopathic fraudster (on meth)...  it's as if they're making excuses for his behaviour and the author implies that Sam will be back.  

Bankman-Fried once said that he’d got into cryptocurrency only to make money as quickly as possible and help finance the main goals of the effective-altruism movement. He was a proponent of the longtermist ethos, in which prediction and speculation are often indistinguishable and obligations to a probabilistic future outweigh those to the material present. Effective altruism is ultimately a gamble. Bankman-Fried placed his bet. For now, he has lost.
 archived full version:
https://archive.ph/8gTiJ

Even though there seem to be political connections to this FTX scammening story, I doubt that this scammening is only political aspirations to change the world, even though I believe that they were greedy, sloppy and thinking that they could keep the Ponzi going long enough in order to be able to escape unscathed.. and yeah, what exactly would have been the escape route?  

Maybe the various FTX leader dweebs (who are they besides that chubby fruit-tard, SBF?) had not thought that far out?.. but I suppose the FTX leaders should have known that it would unwind at a certain point, even though they likely had enough hubris and delusions to believe that they could keep the ponzi going... and of course, we will continue to find out more in regards to the various ways that the scheme should have been more obvious than it seems to have appeared in terms of being able to run something like this for more than 3 years and to be largely stealing from client funds the whole time..

..... including that they did not own any actual BTC.., which should really tell a lot about their concerns for making sure that they were sustainable..

.. just think of the many trading platform clients (to the extent that their volume was actually real) who thought that they were buying BTC exposure on FTX, and sure they were buying BTC exposure, but that BTC exposure did not seem to be backed up by any actual BTC that FTX was actually holding.  

How could not holding any BTC while selling BTC exposure be either sustainable or even having any kind of good faith attempt to make sure that they were backed up by actual assets that could go up in value... and they needed to be able to pay BTC if clients withdrew BTC to cold wallets, no?

Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis's spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”

The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:

I tried logging into my Gemini account, and it is "temporarily grounded" at the moment...  Looks like it has been down for about an hour so far, so it is not anything to get overly worried about, yet...  Hopefully, Gemini has NOT overly gambled with their client's funds too.....even if they may well have lost a lot of funds that were in such "earn" product.  So many folks believe that they need to "earn yield" on their coins.. which seems to be a slippery slope into shenanigans.. even tough we likely know that there should also be legitimate ways to "earn" so long as the "earning" is actually put into some product that is actually something other than a ponzi scheme and has actual collateral backing it up.

[cAPSLOCK]

I tried logging into my Gemini account, and it is "temporarily grounded" at the moment...  Looks like it has been down for about an hour so far, so it is not anything to get overly worried about, yet...  Hopefully, Gemini has NOT overly gambled with their client's funds too.....even if they may well have lost a lot of funds that were in such "earn" product.  So many folks believe that they need to "earn yield" on their coins.. which seems to be a slippery slope into shenanigans.. even tough we likely know that there should also be legitimate ways to "earn" so long as the "earning" is actually put into some product that is actually something other than a ponzi scheme and has actual collateral backing it up.

I think this is where a LOT of the "space" has underestimated the fallout from this thing.  It is going to hurt every exchange that was stupid enough to send money over to FTX for some reason.

I read even Coinbase is stuck double digit millions (can't currently find the source) because of this.  Now Coinbase can probably actually absorb that shock.  But depending on the exposure and the size of the victim?  There is no doubt we will see fallout?

Was Gemini dumb enough to have funds over there.  Honestly, probably.  Lots?  Hopefully not.  Or is it just that they are having the unfreeze some cold storage?  Well for several reasons I hope that is the case.

No matter what, we are really only dipping under the surface of the water to BEGIN to get an idea of the size of this iceberg. I think we should see much more fallout.

Honestly i HOPE we do.  I do not want people to get hurt... but i DO want to see the exodus of coins off exchanges not only continue, but accelerate. 

[CageMabok]

There are those who suddenly became rich amid the recent crash of the FTX stock exchange. I read in the news that there are Hackers exploiting a now bankrupt exchange last week making a lot of money which propelled them to Ether whale status. This is very frustrating because hackers who have no compassion also take advantage of the difficult situation that the FTX exchange is currently in. Source: https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/1592917963077722114

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I love how, at the very bottom of every single downturn, the collective Bitcoin community has a pause and a moment of self-reflection where they wonder if Bitcoin is making any real-world progress at all. And if it is even worth it to still be investing in it...

...A sentiment only to be completely forgotten and smuggly snickered at a mere 12 months later.  

#thistooshallpass #buybtc

[wachtwoord]

And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

I promise I will stop making this point over and over, but  I am going to try one last time.

Lightning (or ANY OTHER scaling layer/solution) cannot 'kill off mining'.  It's sort of a catch 22 but positive.

You only need lightning if blocks are full (and for instant settlement).  If blocks are not full people will not need to use lightning.

Lightning will KEEP blocks full.  Lightning service providers are going to compete on the base layer to write settlement transactions.  For the entire world!

Individual users are not going to want to pay the sort of fees necessary to keep miners supported as the subsidy wanes, but layer 2 service provider certainly will.

I honestly cannot figure out how you are scared by this.

_edit_ as a matter of fact we are seeing this play out right now.  Blocks are super full with a mucilaginous backlog (thanks to Binance and people pulling stuff off exchanges?)  If I need to make a transaction I am definitely going to want to do it over lightning if I can.  So lightning is NOT killing the miners.  It is saving the individual.

Indeed. The free market will simply find an equilibrium and gravitate to it.

[OgNasty]

I love how, at the very bottom of every single downturn, the collective Bitcoin community has a pause and a moment of self-reflection where they wonder if Bitcoin is making any real-world progress at all. And if it is even worth it to still be investing in it...

...A sentiment only to be completely forgotten and smuggly snickered at a mere 12 months later.  

#thistooshallpass #buybtc

I don’t really trade BTC but it is amazing how your emotions try to coerce you to do the worst things possible. I do wonder what would happen if BNB crashed and Binance went bankrupt. What if Tesla sells, mtgox and the US gov crash the price back below $2K. What if Saylor gets liquidated and GBTC dissolves? This whole thing could melt down or it could boom. It’s still an experiment. Personally though, I think people are better off selling at multi year highs as opposed to multi year lows.

[shahzadafzal]

He was dubbed to be "most generous billionaire" by Nas Daily, that video was posted on 26 Jan 2022.

Although the already updated the video title "(FRAUD) The Most Generous Billionaire" and promise to delete the video



https://twitter.com/nasdaily/status/1590021329084108800

This reminds me of Ruja Ignatova and her glamours marketing concerts   

Nas Daily clarifying his mistake

https://youtu.be/zgoLpOTUeCE

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis's spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”

The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:

Nice word selection there.

Doesn't say anything about being solvent.

[dragonvslinux]

I tried logging into my Gemini account, and it is "temporarily grounded" at the moment...  Looks like it has been down for about an hour so far, so it is not anything to get overly worried about, yet...  Hopefully, Gemini has NOT overly gambled with their client's funds too.....even if they may well have lost a lot of funds that were in such "earn" product.  So many folks believe that they need to "earn yield" on their coins.. which seems to be a slippery slope into shenanigans.. even tough we likely know that there should also be legitimate ways to "earn" so long as the "earning" is actually put into some product that is actually something other than a ponzi scheme and has actual collateral backing it up.

On paper, Gemini Earn appears to be a relatively simplistic lending program:

Gemini Earn is a lending program through which you may choose to lend your crypto to certain institutional borrowers and earn interest on your crypto.

At least based on the APYs (for example BTC 2.5%), it's not screaming ponzi, but ultimately how it actually functions under the hood is a different story... This probably isn't the real issue right now though.

The real question will be whether Gemini itself can deal with the withdrawal demand that comes it's way, this is what I'd trust a lot less right now. Given Gemini considered Genesis "trustworthy" and "audited" when they filed a claim against 3AC for $1.2B for loan defaulting months ago, should have screamed red flags. The fact they had $175 million effectively lost in FTX becomes much less relevant given that since July it looks like they had a big hole in their balance sheet - at least that's how it looks at a glance. Gemini not considering this an issue to terminate their partnership with them shows real poor oversight. So while there's apparently going to be 5 day delay for the Earn-based withdrawals - which I can actually believe as you can't just liquidate institutional borrowers overnight, but otherwise the loans could well be collateralised  - the real question remains whether Gemini itself has the liquidity to deal with the bank run coming it's way. While everyone was looking at Kucoin and Crypto.com, it seems obvious now why Gemini could soon fall.

PS - Bare in mind FTX.US was also "completely unaffected" by FTX Int. going bankrupt, for about 24 hours at least 

[xhomerx10]

Chief Executive Officer Derar Islim admitted that withdrawal requests exceeded current liquidity at Genesis Global Capital, the lending arm; but made it clear that Genesis's spot and derivatives trading and custody businesses “remain fully operational.”

The contagion of Genesis lending issues has already hit one large firm, as Gemini Trust Co., the cryptocurrency platform run by the Winklevoss brothers, has halted withdrawals from its Earn program:

Nice word selection there.

Doesn't say anything about being solvent.

 If you don't let customers make withdrawals you can't be insolvent.gif

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation