Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

It looked like there was quite a bit of buying interest around $15,700.  Looking back, it's possible that this may have been the best buying opportunity of this cycle.  I personally think that the ultimate low will be when the mtgox coins are distributed next year, but I think it's possible we've hit the yearly low.  We'll have to wait and see how things develop from here.  It seems to me though that the damage from FTX has been done and the fallout won't be so bad from here as far as the exchange rate is concerned.  If you have funds trapped on exchanges though, there is reason for concern.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

not in need of funds and not selling before roughly 3X from here, but will not wait for 150K.

It's positive that you aren't selling right at the bottom, unlike some who capitulate.

[UnDerDoG81]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

Just as he says, time is ticking. I bought when I was 32 and now I am 41. I still live the same life as with 32. No luxury, no gold digger chicks, nothing. And then I also wonder wtf is going on with those YouTube morons like “the moon” who got in in 2017 I believe and is a multi millionaire driving Bugattis and shit while I got in in 2013 and still driving an 2007 BMW. I must have done something very wrong lol. Ok I don’t have an eye on luxury. But a decent Porsche is something I earned after 9 years of holding through the wildest swings.

[xhomerx10]

Where the dude @

 Holbox Island, Quintaroo, Mexico.

 Pics of the bio-luminescent waters please!!

edit:
https://www.google.com/maps/@21.5246543,-87.3807082,2a,75y,273.42h,102.27t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sNRYUyDXeSRRipNyOfkzqtg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en-US

[wachtwoord]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

Just as he says, time is ticking. I bought when I was 32 and now I am 41. I still live the same life as with 32. No luxury, no gold digger chicks, nothing. And then I also wonder wtf is going on with those YouTube morons like “the moon” who got in in 2017 I believe and is a multi millionaire driving Bugattis and shit while I got in in 2013 and still driving an 2007 BMW. I must have done something very wrong lol. Ok I don’t have an eye on luxury. But a decent Porsche is something I earned after 9 years of holding through the wildest swings.

If you want to sell some because you want to spend the proceeds now or very soon that is different from selling 30-40% indiscriminately for no real reason (except "price swings are scary").

Again: do as you wish. Just gave my opinion on the matter.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Goodbye Mt Gox.

Goodbye Cryptsy.

Goodbye Bitcoin fork wannabes and scammers.

Goodbye Bitconnect.

Goodbye ICOs.

Goodbye NFTs.

Goodbye Terra Luna and UST.

Goodbye FTX.

Goodbye BlockFi.

... keep em' coming.

One by one, let's burn the whole shitcoin and DeFi scam markets to the fkn ground !

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

[HI-TEC99]

..
Goodbye FTX.

..

But FTX was different. SBF was a proponent of the “effective altruism” social movement.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Next time, I am not waiting even for a new ATH, will probably sell a large % portion earlier (if we ever get there-to my undisclosed current sell target).
It feels silly to sell at 16K, though, so I don't.

You're going to end up really disappointed if you do that.

Well, I already did not sell twice: at 20K in 2017 and 69K in 2021, there would NOT be a 3rd time.
Albeit, I also did not 'mindtrust' at $175 in 2015, $3100 in 2018 and $3800 in 2020.
Part of it is age...waiting for 10 years makes no sense to me.
However, I am not going to sell all...maybe 30-40% or so.

Same here and it might very well be a third. Why on Earth would you sell so much without even a new ATH?

Are you in desperate need of liquid funds or something?

Yes when reading your post I had Mindrust in mind. I almost added "be careful not to do a mindrust" to the end of my post.

Just sell what you need in immediate liquidity and keep the rest until we get anywhere close to final state valuation. We are not anywhere close to that. I mean Bitcoin market cap is only 2x ETH. Just that relative valuation should tell you enough already.

... those YouTube morons like “the moon” who got in in 2017 I believe and is a multi millionaire driving Bugattis and shit while I got in in 2013 and still driving an 2007 BMW. I must have done something very wrong ....

I wouldn't believe any stuff coming from these cRYptO channels.  Many of them are pretend rich.

And 99% of the few guys that became rich in reality did so because they promoted scams and high leverage trading websites to noobs.  So most likely sociopaths who happily help to fleece others for their own benefit...

will say... probably you haven't done anything wrong besides not buying enough BTC in the early days.  But that's a shortcoming most OGs have in common.  I think 2013 Bitcoiners could be called OG nowadays...

[HI-TEC99]

...

I wouldn't believe any stuff coming from these cRYptO channels.  Many of them are pretend rich.

...

[Biodom]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  .
BTW, it is not the fault of bitcoin itself, just human folly and greed (and infatuation with supposedly more 'advanced' shitcoins).

Plus, we need a mechanism that explicitly prevents fake bitcoin 'printing'. No entity should be able to say that they have bitcoin if they don't have a "physical one", and if not, then, as someone said here (sorry can't recall the name) it is "stonks 2.0".

EDIT: btw, here is an interesting article suggesting that we should increase our bitcoin usage and not only focus on hodling:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/for-bitcoin-to-be-true-digital-cash

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

His vision was everyone having the power to be their own bank with no-one else being involved, thereby being protected from the scum sucking bankers.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  .
BTW, it is not the fault of bitcoin itself, just human folly and greed (and infatuation with supposedly more 'advanced' shitcoins).

Plus, we need a mechanism that explicitly prevents fake bitcoin 'printing'. No entity should be able to say that they have bitcoin if they don't have a "physical one", and if not, then, as someone said here (sorry can't recall the name) it is "stonks 2.0".

EDIT: btw, here is an interesting article suggesting that we should increase our bitcoin usage and not only focus on hodling:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/for-bitcoin-to-be-true-digital-cash

Been saying the bolded since the first "institutional" involvement but always got shouted down because "thats ngu Br0".

But of course it isn't, it is exactly as I have been repeating for years and I will once again post the quote.





Diluting the 21 million is their ONLY real attack vector and people not keeping their own keys are playing into their hands.

[philipma1957]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  .
BTW, it is not the fault of bitcoin itself, just human folly and greed (and infatuation with supposedly more 'advanced' shitcoins).

Plus, we need a mechanism that explicitly prevents fake bitcoin 'printing'. No entity should be able to say that they have bitcoin if they don't have a "physical one", and if not, then, as someone said here (sorry can't recall the name) it is "stonks 2.0".

EDIT: btw, here is an interesting article suggesting that we should increase our bitcoin usage and not only focus on hodling:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/for-bitcoin-to-be-true-digital-cash

. The governments of the world do not want it yet.

 You would need a true internationally regulated set of exchanges to make it work.

And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

Could be

BTC = big bond 100000 dollar note

LTC/DOGE  = smaller money.

Doge has solved the what happens if rewards vanish
Doge has ever decreasing inflation rate.

100% year 1
  10% year 11
    1% year 101

Just saying that we have an issue with btc that makes fear. rewards are next to nothing in 2060

[Hueristic]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

13 years have passed, everyone got scars, but there is no "system", would you agree?
At this point, i am not sure if it would be possible as many were trying and so far nothing major had happened. Maybe soon  .
BTW, it is not the fault of bitcoin itself, just human folly and greed (and infatuation with supposedly more 'advanced' shitcoins).

Plus, we need a mechanism that explicitly prevents fake bitcoin 'printing'. No entity should be able to say that they have bitcoin if they don't have a "physical one", and if not, then, as someone said here (sorry can't recall the name) it is "stonks 2.0".

EDIT: btw, here is an interesting article suggesting that we should increase our bitcoin usage and not only focus on hodling:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/for-bitcoin-to-be-true-digital-cash

. The governments of the world do not want it yet.

 You would need a true internationally regulated set of exchanges to make it work.

And like it or not no one knows if LN network kills off mining or helps mining down the road.

Could be

BTC = big bond 100000 dollar note

LTC/DOGE  = smaller money.

Doge has solved the what happens if rewards vanish
Doge has ever decreasing inflation rate.

100% year 1
  10% year 11
    1% year 101

Just saying that we have an issue with btc that makes fear. rewards are next to nothing in 2060

JJG's correct, you make alot serious shitcoin bullshit arguments.

[JayJuanGee]

isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

Looks like we are now at the end of the road for bitcoin appreciation. Now fully capitalised and valuations will probably hover between 20k and 60k from here on in.

The price has now dipped well below the last market peak from the 4 year cycle instead of staying above it as in previous cycles and the logarithmic long term trend has now levelled off, so stock-to-flow worked for a while but we've even departed form that = projections on the future based on hopium of the past 

I remember you spouting out the same kind of nonsense in 2018 - and surely you were not even prepared for our two upward BTC price movements in 2021.. You were probably into a variety of shitcoins.. since you seem to love them so much and the in and out breathing bullshit..

Currently, I have little confidence in your negative nancy spoutings.

..and then weren't you saying similar things in 2015- --- how did that work out for you?  Have you made any money in bitcoin in the past 8-9 years...

Hopefully, you have been able to at least meet something like a $50 per week DCA strategy in the past 9 years, which would have caused you to invest about $23,500 during that time and put you at at least 23 BTC.. You are at least able to match that level of performance over your years on the forum right?

$BTC is poised for a short relief rally to test the resistance under the $18,000 level. 📈
What are your price targets?

https://twitter.com/TheMoonCarl/status/1592480072723828737?t=eU2xzil4R1l458-kMVgObg&s=19

Wow!!!! Not even one word of your post is coming from your own head (fingers - besides copy/paste) - unless your name might happen to be "Carl?"  Carl, is that you?

Speak Carl. Speak.


Ok.. back on topic and responding to your "very profound and insightful" original-thinking question: 

I am going to shoot BIG.

My price target is $18,001

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The King Daddy still remains, and is still thriving. 🕶

yes, true, but, be honest, where is the "alternative financial system" based on bitcoin?
It's possible that just sending coins from point A to point B would suffice (and being a putative 'store of value'), but Satoshi envisioned bitcoin banks, if I recall correctly.

...

Can you post a link to it?

All I could find was this post by hal.

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

You are right, Hal Finney said that, it was not directly attributed to Satoshi.
I sometimes rightly or wrongly think that he is "the one".