 Show Posts
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 »
|
|
Hi all, been really busy again so I have a few updates. On 8/30 I didn't notice that the Dow actually elected a bullish reversal. I bought a position on Monday, but will calculate the percentage as if I had bought on Friday. The Dow also elected a bullish reversal on 09/05 and 09/06. I bought DIA for all these elections. The sell date was today 9/9 because the Dow closed lower than it opened and was still true (I made sure to check that it didn't elect any reversals this time 😋).
Total successful reversal: 8
Total failed reversals: 3
Total gain: 14.10%
Total loss: 5.58%
Total profit: 8.52%
|
|
|
|
Alex, the whole point about using live data from calls is because Armstrong has been known to take credit for calls from things that already happened. https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-think-of-Martin-Armstrong-and-the-documentary-The-Forecaster Anyone can say they called a market move after it already happened. That's why the chart analysis doesn't count. Let us call it what it is: fraud. If you want to continue saying it works, please prove it. If you want to say that it works without proving it, then I can show you a goose that will lay golden eggs for you for a low cost of just $5,000 (please send by WU or money order thanks). Good work Anon. I managed ~30% this week but I suspect my risk adjusted returns would be worse than yours. Last week was huge though. Unfortunately, I am missing some really good trades being away from the computer at times. That's the issue with pure daytrading, alas. olegrey, I think using linear P/L percentages as far as posted results go would be more accurate, as leveraged ETFs can skew things. Also, you might want to clarify rules, as there is the doji rule; I am not sure if there are more, but using pure Socrates rules may change things. So I would say that you are adding your own trading skills to avoid some losses and increase gains in this case. Not that its a bad thing  beware that leveraged ETFs suffer from volatility decay, so you may want to use alternatives, eg 3 times the amount in a normal instead of a 3x, etc (beware black swans) Someone mentioned that the Reversals were about exceeding previous highs and lows, with the exits beyond the opposite peak and the 1% rule being support/resistance from the previous peak. If that is so, that is pretty much the 'engulf' pattern in supply and demand trading except with worse entries. It is extremely simple to learn and follow. The theory is that price moves in peaks and valleys due to previous demand or supply. So if price engulfs (goes beyond) the previous high, it means that the sellers at that level were consumed by the buys and price must move up to the next price level. That is simply Armstrong's re-named Reversal. And the 1% rule is that if it exceeds, it will go back to that previous point. Anyone with a beginner's level of TA will be able to recognize this pattern in the charts of 'resistance becomes support' which is the 1% rule. Just look up 'supply demand engulf', 'supply demand FTR', 'decision point trading' and so on, there will be charts and concepts you can see. Armstrong brilliantly repackaged trading techniques that have existed thousands of years ago. Those same techniques can be learned on the internet for free. Of course, the cycles are unique- but they lose money uniquely quicker than any other strategy I've seen. I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by "linear p/l percentages". As for the reversals, Armstrong says that bullish reversals are calculated from lows and bearish reversals are calculated from highs. Could he be lying and just renaming the engulf pattern, I don't know. I meant that you're using leveraged and nonleveraged ETFs, so the directional movement as expressed in percentages are not the actual more as predicted by Socrates but rather increased by the leverage inconsistently. It isn't as consistent as an unleveraged position- this is where personal knowledge/experience comes in Gotcha, so you want me to express the percentages in terms of the DOW, not the ETFs I'm using? Yes that would be more accurate Succesful Reversals: 5 Failed Reversals: 3 Total gain: 12.00% Total loss: 5.58% Total profit: 6.42% |
|
|
|
Alex, the whole point about using live data from calls is because Armstrong has been known to take credit for calls from things that already happened. https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-think-of-Martin-Armstrong-and-the-documentary-The-Forecaster Anyone can say they called a market move after it already happened. That's why the chart analysis doesn't count. Let us call it what it is: fraud. If you want to continue saying it works, please prove it. If you want to say that it works without proving it, then I can show you a goose that will lay golden eggs for you for a low cost of just $5,000 (please send by WU or money order thanks). Good work Anon. I managed ~30% this week but I suspect my risk adjusted returns would be worse than yours. Last week was huge though. Unfortunately, I am missing some really good trades being away from the computer at times. That's the issue with pure daytrading, alas. olegrey, I think using linear P/L percentages as far as posted results go would be more accurate, as leveraged ETFs can skew things. Also, you might want to clarify rules, as there is the doji rule; I am not sure if there are more, but using pure Socrates rules may change things. So I would say that you are adding your own trading skills to avoid some losses and increase gains in this case. Not that its a bad thing beware that leveraged ETFs suffer from volatility decay, so you may want to use alternatives, eg 3 times the amount in a normal instead of a 3x, etc (beware black swans) Someone mentioned that the Reversals were about exceeding previous highs and lows, with the exits beyond the opposite peak and the 1% rule being support/resistance from the previous peak. If that is so, that is pretty much the 'engulf' pattern in supply and demand trading except with worse entries. It is extremely simple to learn and follow. The theory is that price moves in peaks and valleys due to previous demand or supply. So if price engulfs (goes beyond) the previous high, it means that the sellers at that level were consumed by the buys and price must move up to the next price level. That is simply Armstrong's re-named Reversal. And the 1% rule is that if it exceeds, it will go back to that previous point. Anyone with a beginner's level of TA will be able to recognize this pattern in the charts of 'resistance becomes support' which is the 1% rule. Just look up 'supply demand engulf', 'supply demand FTR', 'decision point trading' and so on, there will be charts and concepts you can see. Armstrong brilliantly repackaged trading techniques that have existed thousands of years ago. Those same techniques can be learned on the internet for free. Of course, the cycles are unique- but they lose money uniquely quicker than any other strategy I've seen. I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by "linear p/l percentages". As for the reversals, Armstrong says that bullish reversals are calculated from lows and bearish reversals are calculated from highs. Could he be lying and just renaming the engulf pattern, I don't know. I meant that you're using leveraged and nonleveraged ETFs, so the directional movement as expressed in percentages are not the actual more as predicted by Socrates but rather increased by the leverage inconsistently. It isn't as consistent as an unleveraged position- this is where personal knowledge/experience comes in Gotcha, so you want me to express the percentages in terms of the DOW, not the ETFs I'm using? |
|
|
|
Alex, the whole point about using live data from calls is because Armstrong has been known to take credit for calls from things that already happened. https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-think-of-Martin-Armstrong-and-the-documentary-The-Forecaster Anyone can say they called a market move after it already happened. That's why the chart analysis doesn't count. Let us call it what it is: fraud. If you want to continue saying it works, please prove it. If you want to say that it works without proving it, then I can show you a goose that will lay golden eggs for you for a low cost of just $5,000 (please send by WU or money order thanks). Good work Anon. I managed ~30% this week but I suspect my risk adjusted returns would be worse than yours. Last week was huge though. Unfortunately, I am missing some really good trades being away from the computer at times. That's the issue with pure daytrading, alas. olegrey, I think using linear P/L percentages as far as posted results go would be more accurate, as leveraged ETFs can skew things. Also, you might want to clarify rules, as there is the doji rule; I am not sure if there are more, but using pure Socrates rules may change things. So I would say that you are adding your own trading skills to avoid some losses and increase gains in this case. Not that its a bad thing beware that leveraged ETFs suffer from volatility decay, so you may want to use alternatives, eg 3 times the amount in a normal instead of a 3x, etc (beware black swans) Someone mentioned that the Reversals were about exceeding previous highs and lows, with the exits beyond the opposite peak and the 1% rule being support/resistance from the previous peak. If that is so, that is pretty much the 'engulf' pattern in supply and demand trading except with worse entries. It is extremely simple to learn and follow. The theory is that price moves in peaks and valleys due to previous demand or supply. So if price engulfs (goes beyond) the previous high, it means that the sellers at that level were consumed by the buys and price must move up to the next price level. That is simply Armstrong's re-named Reversal. And the 1% rule is that if it exceeds, it will go back to that previous point. Anyone with a beginner's level of TA will be able to recognize this pattern in the charts of 'resistance becomes support' which is the 1% rule. Just look up 'supply demand engulf', 'supply demand FTR', 'decision point trading' and so on, there will be charts and concepts you can see. Armstrong brilliantly repackaged trading techniques that have existed thousands of years ago. Those same techniques can be learned on the internet for free. Of course, the cycles are unique- but they lose money uniquely quicker than any other strategy I've seen. I'm sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by "linear p/l percentages". As for the reversals, Armstrong says that bullish reversals are calculated from lows and bearish reversals are calculated from highs. Could he be lying and just renaming the engulf pattern, I don't know. |
|
|
|
|
Hi all, work has been pretty crazy this week, so I have some updates from the past week.
I sold my DOG position because the DOW elected a bullish reversal on 8/28 for a 1.41% loss. I should have sold it on 8/26 because it showed the exact same situation as the 8/15 doji on the etf, but I missed it because like I said, work was crazy. Anyway since the DOW elected a bullish reversal on 8/28 I bought a position in UDOW (3x dow etf) because I was feeling aggressive. The DOW then elected another bullish reversal on 8/29 so I bought another position in UDOW. On 8/30 the market closed lower then it opened but was still TRUE so, as per my rules, I sold both positions making 3.76% and 0.05% respectively
Succesful Reversals: 5
Failed Reversals: 3
Total gain: 14.24%
Total loss: 5.58%
Total profit: 8.66%
|
|
|
|
|
On Friday the DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26020.05 with a closing of 25628.90 a 1.5% difference. I have bought a position in DOG
|
|
|
|
Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.
PCG was a great short when it broke support at 21, nice trade to ride it down to the low. That had some pretty violent drops so look for it to likely bounce back towards 17 (support/resistance) before possibly falling further. Olegrey, thanks for trying at least. The doji would be a matter of hindsight bias and also a matter of introducing something that was not part of the system. If we go back and try to find things that would have prevented a loss or made a gain, it would be called 'optimization' in systems talk. It basically means you change the system from past performance to have it 'fit' to have good results. Optimization doesn't work, unfortunately. This is the #1 method that the online snake oil sellers use to sell their 'system that returned X% in the past Y years! Verified!' Now, if you had some technical basis and a set of rules to go by that work to tell you when it works and when it won't, that would be different. There have been tried and tested methods that work, and the best one is, 'follow the trend'.
This ^^^^^ If your rules don't allow you to make a good trade at the time without the benefit of hindsight then it's not a valid trading system (ie time to go back to the drawing board) It's in the rules to sell on the first day of it's a doji, it was kinda of one on the DOW but definitely a doji on the etf. So I think it's valid to add that |
|
|
|
|
Didn't work out so great this time. Sold DOG today at 54.13 for a 2.7% loss. I did notice that there may have been a doji candle on the 15th on the DOW but on DOG there was definitely a doji, so I've learned that I have to pay attention to if there is a doji on the ETF as well as the underlying
Total successful elected reversals: 3
Total failed elected reversals: 2
Total gain: 10.43%
Total loss: 4.17%
Total Profit: 6.26%
|
|
|
|
The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%. I have bought a position in DOG
That ETF barely moves (vs something like UWPIX), how the heck are you making money on that? (unless you are playing options) Also my hourly volatility chart is showing an overall decline so I'll be curious again to see how this trade works out. I'm not convinced if Socrates has a use, so I am doing this as a feasibility study of Socrates using a small account. I plan to use DIA and DOG until I am comfortable with my trading system. If successful, I plan to start using DDM (2x DOW), UDOW (3x DOW), DXD (-2x DOW), SDOW (-3x DOW) and DIA call and put options. If you look at my recent post you can see that I did make around 9% using DOG in about week. Yes, I could have made more, but I don't trust the system yet. |
|
|
|
|
The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 25518.04 with a closing of 25479.4, a difference of .15%. I have bought a position in DOG
|
|
|
|
Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think. I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.
Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades. I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss. Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?
Yes, a column for the type of Reversal (eg Daily, Weekly, etc.), max drawdown, (maybe also max drawdown per time unit) and % the Reversal was elected by. Might be possible to find some correlations within them. Sounds good, I have a few other spreadsheets where I am collecting weekly and monthly reversals for markets I'm not trading. I'll make them public when I feel they are populated enough |
|
|
|
|
Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think. I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.
Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades. I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss. Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?
|
|
|
|
|
So I ended up selling my DOG and DXD positions yesterday for 2 reasons. First, it was a possible sell day that I didn't think would reach the next reversal. Second, the energy model has gone negative which means the energy on the daily level is bullish. There are two things I have learned from these latest trades which are don't buy after market if the price goes too high from the closing, just wait until the next day opening, which I should of done for DXD. Second, pay attention to the energy models (I didn't have access to these when creating my rules). My sell price for DOG was 55.31 and DXD was 28.49. Today I bought a position of DIA at 261.77 because the energy is negative. No reversals were elected for this trade.
Successful elected reversals: 3
Failed elected reversal: 1
Total Gain: 10.43%
Total Loss: 1.38%
Total profit: 9.05%
|
|
|
|
Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).
At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June. The 1% rule is odd in my experience. In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal. Olegrey, I think you took Friday the 28th as month close? Gold opened again on Sunday June 30, that was still within the month of June. Spot gold is traded 23 hours a day, from Sunday 10pm GMT through Friday 9pm GMT. you're right, thank you |
|
|
|
Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).
At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.
Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June. The 1% rule is odd in my experience. In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal. |
|
|
|
Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.
Any info on Weekly Bearish?
The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected. It is the same number this week as well |
|
|
|
Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.
Any info on Weekly Bearish?
The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected |
|
|
|
|
The DOW elected the bearish reversal at 25768.7 with a closing of 25717.7 a .1% difference. I placed a position of DXD, a 2x inverse etf, because my DOG trade wasn't going through. All previously elected sell rules are reset to this latest elected reversal
|
|
|
|
Bought the low with all in 0 days, upped my account by 40%. Scored the double hit on high volume, excellent setup. It may go higher but had to beware of theta and gamma risk.
The Reversals are ok it seems so far, but the real test comes at market turns. Sample size still too small to tell with reliability yet.
Agreed, nice trade btw |
|
|
|
Please post your overlays
I don't see any way to attach photos on here, what are folks using for that? Happy to post them if someone can provide an easy way to do it. Any luck on getting these posted. Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays. |
|
|
|
|
