Martin Armstrong Discussion

[olegrey]

Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.

Any info on Weekly Bearish?

The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected

[1714065128]

1714065128

[1714065128]

1714065128

[olegrey]

Went long near the low again, off by 8 points. Drawdown was brutal, but made 10 percent. Had I held, it could have been up double- but rules are rules. Had went all in on 0 days with just an hour till expiry. It was a triple hit though, far better than just a double hit. I did lose my whole account a long time ago doing that, but had little technical knowledge back then.

Any info on Weekly Bearish?

The last weekly bearish for the DOW was 26062.58 so it was not elected.  It is the same number this week as well

[s29]

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.

[DanB1]

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.

True, he was very wrong there. I made most my money in US Bonds and Bond proxies this year, longer and shorter duration. Works even better when you can get some leverage.
I expect to FED to lower their rates sharply in September (if economic numbers keep deteriorating).

But still I do think MA has a point that at some point money will leave bonds for stocks as it's higher yielding and gov. bonds might lose their safe haven status.
So with a lot of things, MA might have a very good point but is wrong on timing.

Just like July was a panic cycle in the DOW, that must have been August.
I probably keep on following MA, just like I follow many Macro guys but take his 'advice' with a tablespoon of salt. (and will definitely not spend a dime on it:)

[unwashed]

So Armstrong has been wrong on rates many years. But he now has a genius solution: just calling it fake when it doesn't go your way!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/real-world-v-fake-central-bank-interest-rates/

Real-World v Fake Central Bank Interest Rates
Blog/Interest Rates
Posted Aug 5, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

1) Marty always brags about how he's advicing all kind of central banks on policies. How did he not seen this coming?
2) But he's wrong again in his new analysis; because ECB and the Fed haven't been QE'ing for a while, and still bond yields are trending lower. At this moment the free market is pushing bond yields down.
3) He's wrong once again, because High Yield and European mortgage rates (what Marty calls "real rates") are trending lower in tandem with the "fake rates".

Marty, please stop BS'ing and say you were wrong on yields.

True, he was very wrong there. I made most my money in US Bonds and Bond proxies this year, longer and shorter duration. Works even better when you can get some leverage.
I expect to FED to lower their rates sharply in September (if economic numbers keep deteriorating).

But still I do think MA has a point that at some point money will leave bonds for stocks as it's higher yielding and gov. bonds might lose their safe haven status.
So with a lot of things, MA might have a very good point but is wrong on timing.

Just like July was a panic cycle in the DOW, that must have been August.
I probably keep on following MA, just like I follow many Macro guys but take his 'advice' with a tablespoon of salt. (and will definitely not spend a dime on it:)

MA has been saying this for 10 years, as far back as I could remember which is 2009. To be honest anyone looking at a chart could say the same thing. Gold bugs were saying this in 2009/10 and how gold would benefit from the capital moving to gold and stocks. So not very insightful.

Also the great economist and noble prize winner Milton Friedman says rates should actually be 0% based on real rates calculated by Govt deficit, something along those lines. Friedman actually advised other Govt, 3 of which were US, India and China. Yea, he actually went to China and I believe his influence put China on its coarse. Over the weekend I decided to give myself a refresher on Friedman and came across a video from May 2019 and it was a historian giving a lecture to Central bankers and Bankers and the subject was about Friedman and his life and economic research. So obviously Central Bankers are using Friedman advise. Have to say reviewing all this stuff has changed my views on many thing, 1 is the misinformation about Keynes being a big influence is incorrect since Friedman's views and advice has been around since the great depression. If anyone is interested spend a weekend on youtube and review his work, it's very concert info to know about markets and the economies.  

One last observation, He was interview in 2000 and debunked the Business cycle at the same time acknowledging there were people out there saying there was, hmmm. Should you listen to a noble prize winner who wrote 4 or 5 books, researched economies from history, advised gov't and his theories proven?  

[DanB1]

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

[MTL4]

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.

I finally got around to adding the overlays, work has been kicking my butt lately.

Here's the DOW long term overlays:
https://i.imgur.com/jLABV9J.png
https://i.imgur.com/JaRLuxJ.png

There was some correlation there on the first as you can see the array shows some indication of a rollover prior to the crash in 2007 but the second doesn't indicate much.

Here's the oil long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/oHmMGj1.png

There is a directional change near the bottom in 1999 but not much of an indication on the run up you would have seen between 1999-2008

Here's the UK pound long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/JockfTy.png

Here's the EU Euro long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/pTHY4Qs.png

Here's the Gold/Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/q2Vji7N.png

Here's the Gold long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/MhPgq7i.png

Here's the Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/SZQ4AqF.png

Here's the Copper long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/h1gx0Nc.png

I have more but this should give folks enough to chat about for a bit anyway.  Some arrays clearly appear to have some correlation to major tops/bottoms but they are extremely hard to read with any consistency.  Best you could say would be it might give you some time periods to look at but I would definitely want to be using TA to actually pinpoint where I was in the market price action.

[MTL4]

I notice this just came out but it would be interesting to see how that correlates to what I have in my system.

There is something much bigger going on behind the curtain. I gave the targets and the channel objective on the Pro version of the Private Blog.

Does anyone have access to this right now?  Can you post it up?

[AnonymousCoder]

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

If that is what it is then we need to short Gold now. Let's manipulate the market to make it happen!

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

[Alex-11]

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time,

not on the monthly arrays. THey are stable as to when to expect a turning point or directional change. I've checked the Gold arrays for the last 6 month.

Up around 150% on the account ...... Missed some really good trades though

up 150% and complaining? 

[olegrey]

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.

[bleachberu]

Well done bikefront!

Good that you took advantage of this market volatility, presumably using your own set of TA rules and tools.

A shame, socrates couldn't do the same the past 3 days although there were some private blogs published on the matter,  but the usual macro views and support lines. Not tradeable as usual...

One will always be a student of the market (no matter how good you think you are or your system is) and that's why the market is the market. Even Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio made mistakes to put things into context.

[DanB1]

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.

Olegrey, I think you took Friday the 28th as month close? Gold opened again on Sunday June 30, that was still within the month of June.
Spot gold is traded 23 hours a day, from Sunday 10pm GMT through Friday 9pm GMT.

[DanB1]

Any luck on getting these posted.  Have you used Imgur.com like Alex11 suggested? I would very much like to see these overlays.

I finally got around to adding the overlays, work has been kicking my butt lately.

Here's the DOW long term overlays:



There was some correlation there on the first as you can see the array shows some indication of a rollover prior to the crash in 2007 but the second doesn't indicate much.

Here's the oil long term overlay:


There is a directional change near the bottom in 1999 but not much of an indication on the run up you would have seen between 1999-2008

Here's the UK pound long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/JockfTy.png

Here's the EU Euro long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/pTHY4Qs.png

Here's the Gold/Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/q2Vji7N.png

Here's the Gold long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/MhPgq7i.png

Here's the Silver long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/SZQ4AqF.png

Here's the Copper long term overlay:
https://i.imgur.com/h1gx0Nc.png

I have more but this should give folks enough to chat about for a bit anyway.  Some arrays clearly appear to have some correlation to major tops/bottoms but they are extremely hard to read with any consistency.  Best you could say would be it might give you some time periods to look at but I would definitely want to be using TA to actually pinpoint where I was in the market price action.

Thanks MTL4! very interesting to see the overlays!
Yes, I do think it's difficult to see consistency. In some charts the array's work very well and in others it doesn't. And in hindsight it's easier of course to see the patterns and see how Socrates was right/wrong.
But going forward from here is a bit more difficult...

[olegrey]

Gold elected the "important" monthly reversal in June. We closed 1,392.08. The Bullish monthly was 1,362.50. (~2,2% above the reversal).
So according to the 1% rule we need to test the 1,362.5 reversal within 3 time frames (3 months, so July, August or September).

At the moment gold is testing 1,500 so it would need to come down ~9%.
I'm hoping it will test 1,362.5 as I would like to buy more but I think it's not reachable.

Where are you getting your closing number for gold? I'm getting 1409.51 as the closing for June.

The 1% rule is odd in my experience.  In my "trading rules" I put that if a over 1% rule elected reversal is true during its first time unit, then treat it as a less than 1% rule reversal.

Olegrey, I think you took Friday the 28th as month close? Gold opened again on Sunday June 30, that was still within the month of June.
Spot gold is traded 23 hours a day, from Sunday 10pm GMT through Friday 9pm GMT.

you're right, thank you

[MTL4]

I wonder how much of the overlays are hindsight. They change as one moves forward in time, not just relatively, but it also adds cycle types and peaks as you go. Plus, those are going back into the 90s so yeah. All this Armstrong stuff is just a waste of time. Better to study up and put into practice what you know, or at least subscribe to someone who can actually be coherent.

My understanding is that the arrays are supposed to be the number of "hits" each column has for the given time frame.  There is supposedly also some learning involved (debatable what MA considers AI) but by in large if the cycles work as MA suggests then it should be relatively fixed as you can see below.  Some points will grow or shrink in importance since the number of "hits" under each column varies over time but overall the market itself should have far more to do with the reversals than it should with the arrays (at least in theory).

Combined - Total hits under each column (this is why MA says to look at this for turning points)

Composite II -  Longitudinal timing model, which expand and contract through time. (supposedly where the AI comes in)

Empirical - Transverse timing model, which is comprised of fixed frequencies.

Long-Term - Long-term transverse timing mode, which has a fixed frequency that is generally three-times that of the Empirical model.

Trading Cycle - Trading Timing Model offers a union of time and direction that enables the end-user determine when a high or low is likely to occur.

Alpha Cycle - Alpha Cycle model represents the analysis of transverse frequencies, which are generated from highs-to-highs.  (would have market reference)

Beta Cycle - Beta Cycle model represents the analysis of transverse frequencies, which are generated from lows-to-lows.  (would have market reference)

Directional Change - Directional Change model represents when a market will begin to make a decisive move.

Panic Cycle - Panic Cycle model represents whether an abrupt move is about to occur within the market.

Volatility - Volatility Models provides an indication as to when a change in the current volatility trend will take place.

You guys can see for yourself in the overlays but if there were any conclusions to be drawn on this I would say that the empirical, long-term, directional, panic and volatility seem to have the most correlation to what actually happened in the market. I tried using the arrays to draw where the market would go in the future but honestly I would have done better flipping a coin so that's why I'm not giving up my TA anytime soon.

[MTL4]

Thanks MTL4! very interesting to see the overlays!
Yes, I do think it's difficult to see consistency. In some charts the array's work very well and in others it doesn't. And in hindsight it's easier of course to see the patterns and see how Socrates was right/wrong.
But going forward from here is a bit more difficult...

No prob.  I have a theory I've developed (you can see from the overlays that MA's arrays seem to work much better prior to 2008 than they do after that period). I do subscribe to the idea that overall world markets are very, very deep so it may be possible to influence (distort) them temporarily but control is impossible (Hunt Bros were a classic example of this).  At a smaller level this influence would be considered noise but at a larger scale it would be considered distortion.  This may also be why MA talks about moving out to larger time frames tends to show market trends more accurately.  So if you now have CBs (and by default governments) involved in the game then the potential for distortion would be substantial (and it certainly appears to be true).  Therefore at some point you would have a return to the mean type event proportional to the size of the distortion.  I guess time will tell if the theory is correct but seems to me if you prevent a forest fire for too long eventually when it gets going you need to let nature take it's course and only the rain is capable of reversing it's course.

Thanks. Went long on this early morning dip for another 10%. A really rare 4 hit support occurrence. Holding would have given so much more but its still a bit scary...need to work on it. The mind automatically comes up with nonsense thoughts in the middle of a trade, thus the importance of having a plan for any situation beforehand.

You must be trading options or leveraged ETFs to get 10% from this morning's move on the DOW? Are you just buying/selling volatility alone or did I miss something?

I could see from yesterday when volatility was declining (second peak was less than the initial) that this was another dip buy.......we are definitely not ready to roll over the stock market yet.  My recession indicators show we still haven't crossed the Rubicon to date so until then it's still BTFD.

[olegrey]

So I ended up selling my DOG and DXD positions yesterday for 2 reasons.  First, it was a possible sell day that I didn't think would reach the next reversal.  Second, the energy model has gone negative which means the energy on the daily level is bullish.  There are two things I have learned from these latest trades which are don't buy after market if the price goes too high from the closing, just wait until the next day opening, which I should of done for DXD.  Second, pay attention to the energy models (I didn't have access to these when creating my rules).  My sell price for DOG was 55.31 and DXD was 28.49. Today I bought a position of DIA at 261.77 because the energy is negative.  No reversals were elected for this trade.

Successful elected reversals: 3
Failed elected reversal: 1
Total Gain: 10.43%
Total Loss: 1.38%
Total profit: 9.05%

[olegrey]

Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think.  I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.

Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades.  I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss.  Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?

[olegrey]

Ended up selling my DIA at 262.91 because I got nervous, which was the right call I think.  I'm gonna wait until a reversal is elected for my next trade.

Bikefront I do have a spreadsheet for these trades.  I have a field for instrument used, date bought, date sold, bought price, sold price, and percentage gain/loss.  Do you have any suggestions for categories I should add?

Yes, a column for the type of Reversal (eg Daily, Weekly, etc.), max drawdown, (maybe also max drawdown per time unit) and % the Reversal was elected by. Might be possible to find some correlations within them.

Sounds good, I have a few other spreadsheets where I am collecting weekly and monthly reversals for markets I'm not trading.  I'll make them public when I feel they are populated enough