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Ive been wanting to take time off but I cant until my exit, bounce buy, bounce sell, and re-entry from the crash
You are assuming you will be able to exit at the top.... how? Trailing stop, or something like that. Right now I keep manually adjusting my stop to important levels I know would not be good to break like right now it is 18500. Even if I miss it it'll still create huge waves I'll be able to trade and waves in altcoins that I can margin trade regardless of my position. Lack of Tera2 in this thread is approaching distressing levels. Who will make the topcall within 5% ?? |
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Bumping my Tera2 reward to $300, anyone that sees him let me know.
He is the crash master, what would he say here? Game over??
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Still a bit soon for the triangle breakdown, but it won't be long now. There is NO-NEW-MONEY coming into the system, the current (14k top) supercycle will be the first one to create a lower high. One possibility is a super descending triangle (sloping from 20k, touching 14k, maybe 9k for the next lower high) with 3k as horizontal support. BTC does not pay a dividend, it has no actual human use utility > if you don't sell you may as well throw the private keys away, there is no difference.
Flip the chart to linear to realize the actual scale of new money that has to come in for a new ATH to be hit. Usage is lower. Search interest is 5% of the 20k peak. Institutions have regulated, secure methods to invest and of course don't care. The only possibility is a new army of retail suckers, tell me where they will come from (without the media hype of new ATH's to pull them in) and I would love to go long.
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Correct Tera calls:
Do you have a list of incorrect ones? He almost missed the 2014 bull trap, but, reversed as the bid filled up and caught it Called for support and multiple bounces at 5,500. Actual result of course was 6k Sold at 8k and thought the bubble was over. Jumped back in when indicators came back at 10k or so, missed that 20% Suggested a possible double top to 20k again, thought 16k at best was more likely though. It actually made it to 17k Thought the bounce from 6k could hit 13.5k, only made it to 12k Didn't expect Alts to blow up as high after the April BGC (Bcash to 1800, ETH to 800, lolz) as they did Suggested the mid 2018 bounce that stopped at 10k could stop at 10k, OR, possibly run up to 13k in a super bull trap Called for 20k by 2016 back in 2013, took until 2017 instead Didn't trust Tether, thought it might blow up. Tether now only partial-backed and bailed out by alt exchanges, still works A number of others like these |
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JJG always struck me as a perfect match for the standard 'voice' of BCT:
-Weak/Broken English
-Inability to control emotions
My guess has always been:
-Lower status younger Southern/Eastern European
-Missed out on BTC early days
-Sees no way out besides a belief in BTC hitting 100k+
Read the first 100 threads in speculation and it's as though they are all authored by the same poster.
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*forgot a prediction*
2017 JJG will hodl and have 1/5 the coins he could have had if he listened
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Correct Tera calls:
2013 Pump and top
2013 Crash and bull trap to 700
2013 Bleed out
Predicted wave to 20k back in 2013
Said that new US exchanges would fuel a new run before the 2017 parabola started
2017 Called multiple crashes as temporary corrections
2017 Called for longs on Bcash (before its wild pump, sold at .5 like me)
2017 Picked the ETH ratio bottom
2017 Played Doge coin perfect
2017 Called the top within a few % (sold at 18.8k)
Called the bounce to 17k as the worst time to buy, last chance suckers entry
Predicted a fall to 5-8k followed by a 100% bounce to 12k
Followed by a new fall to 5.5 and then a bounce to 10
Called for a supercycle low of probably 3k
The only area he was unsure about was the longer term: if a supercycle 4.0 would hit and push it to a new ATH. I am calling bubble 4.0 as topped out at 14k and a new bear market has now begun. Long term the odds have dramatically increased for 20k to remain as the forever ATH.
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Tera left because the post crash volatility was over (sold at 18.8, bought at 7, sold at 11, bought back in and left) and the value of trading went down. Market appears to be entering a new phase of crash volatility, the same patterns are going to play out again. The long run was the only uncertainty, as of right now it is clear no new emergent sources of fresh money have shown up.
I actually sent the Tera2 account the private keys to $1k USD of XMR as a thank you when he was still posting, coins never moved, hard to catch this guy.
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What we know about Tera
IQ > 140
Unmatched all time accuracy calling it up and down
Actual understanding of fundamental and technical aspects that move the market
Unknown
Gender
Time of return
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Hello Tera, how you doin'? You aren't forgotten here, see?
Nice to hear your contrarian voice again.
I'm not Tera ( Though I would like to summon him back- |
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::Pretend to be Tera Post:: $8000 would be a target for any drop in the short term. It might not reach $5500 til later. If it goes into a 2011/2014 style extended bear market it could even reach $3000 after a year or two. Yes it could go higher first too. The lows arent based on the highs, they're based on previous ATH.
I picked 3K because it was the last significant horizontal support - the crash likes to end at previous horizontal supports (after wiping out 90% of gains). The support at $5K was too short and not low enough. I really wanted to pick the $2K support but because of how much Bitcoin has changed and matured yada yada and mainly because of how slow the rally has been, I'm ultra-generously giving it 3K. Its going to be phenomenal when we end ONLY at 3K at preserve an entire 200% gain like never before. Theres a small chance of 5K too, I guess, since there WAS a support there. I'd say it's dropping to AT LEAST 5K, PROBABLY 3K, and possibly 2K.
Correct We're stalled because nobody is pumping the books with fat stacks of fiat.These are the same books that have been here for 2 or 3 weeks. Theyre actually smaller.
Bid has fully stalled out again and is now falling: Kraken lower now than at 4k, Bitfinex bid cloe to all time low, Bitstamp in decline since 8k What if this the actually the end of a 9-year 3-bubble elliot wave and now a super bear market is coming? First it would go down $3K as usual (wave A), then it would start rallying again and LOOK like this was the next big bubble (wave B), but around 8K it would fizzle out and proceed into wave C which could go back into low-mid triple digits
This appears to be happening, event sequence: Price crashes to support at 3k Whales frontrun the 'standard' 22 month pump cycle and expected halvening run Everyone else piles in Alts rotate into BTC to get it up even higher Price fails below the ATH because this time, unlike all the other supercycles, something is missing >> there is no new money this time, no new countries, exchanges, groups of suckers to buy in. Price now has to follow the standard crash model, the current descending triangle will break down to support at 7.x (soft) or 5.x (stronger), plenty of bull traps along the way down to grinding on solid support (3k) |
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3k has arrived.
Looks like an overall panic, but the market is primed for a big bounce here. I expect multiple bounces off of 3k, and then a likely fall to attempt the support at $1800.
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Does anyone have a link to the post about the original Winklevos ETF rejection and how some traders opened big positions on Mex while simultaneously pushing the Finex market? They only had to trade a relatively small amount to lock in a lot of profit from the expected volatility event.
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What is going on with these HitBTC books? They are as deep as Bitfinex now. Is all this legit?
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I havent seen any rockets or upward graphs in a while. The poll is bearish. Is it time for a reversal?
Anyone can get lucky once. Next stage:?  |
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You should plot 2011 on there too  Theory: As the market grows in absolute value the time needed for the bear market process increases. This is due to the much larger number of players and money in each subsequent cycle. As an easy thought experiment, BTC can crash and blow up in just weeks if only a few hundred people are speculating in it. On the other extreme, if BTC is owned by everyone, the cycles would match economic ones with major changes taking decades or more to work through. Application: 2018 crash will take longer than the prior 2 cycles and (excepting total BTC failure) will not be as severe in total loss percentage. This would predict a bottom around late 2019 in the 3k range. Current Trade: To match the predicted timescale and magnitude it is likely we need another glade (3.0) to take it back to 8k+. This will take up another 2+ months, setting up the stage for a fall to fake bottom #2 (4.5k area). A few bounces off this area and then a final fall into the 3ks. From here it can bounce and slowly bleedout out as pessimism reaches a peak. External Events: ICO failure and enforcement, continued regulation and exchange failure, and most of all the coming next business cycle global recession would set up things for several years in the early 20's of bottomed out prices. This would be the time to find promising alts using new technology. |
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Latest developments in the bid sum / ask sum on major exchanges support a bullish development, at least short term.
Also there is a possibility to form bullish double bottoms in 12h, 24h and 3D MACD, with respect to the April lows.
However, even if these bullish developments become real, the following rally could turn out to be a wave B.
What are you looking at in bid/ask sum developments? I see the ask having bottomed out in fiat relative to post crash levels. This is probably the most bullish signal. Bid has been steadily increasing since the start of the fall from 8xk. Bid depth tends to inch up during glades. |
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 Totally cool and plausible reasons traders will jump on that could allow Glade 3.0: -The bottom was proven to be in around 6k, triple bounce -Bear market has been going forever, 6 months is a reasonable amount of time for a turnaround to begin -2013 style dip double top incoming -It was never a bear market, just a dip along the way up, clearly now is the time to buy -Whales hoping to pump it up but totally not for the purpose of selling higher and creating pockets of liquidity to sell into if it did come back down -FOMO army that rides the trend back up |
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 Garph of most all legit exchanges combined. WHy? Does: The bid [in fiat, red] increases during the bubble (easy), and then stay about the same during the pop? The ask [in fiat, blue] slowly falls? |
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