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June 14, 2021, 08:27:18 AM *
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1  Economy / Economics / El Salvador plan to make BTC legal tender on: June 06, 2021, 01:18:30 PM
A credible outlet and others have given credit to this news. El Salvador is one of the Central America countries that could be considered a failed state. Little rule of law, an immense number of gangs with thousands of members... The president is probably not the best economist out there, but he may be right in choosing bitcoin as legal tender and even right on the reasons to choose it. After all, having a currency only works if you can print a lot of it and preserves its value and nowadays those are only the USD, EUR, RNM and perhaps the sterling pound to a point.

The current legal tender, USD, is managed by the FED and ultimately by the US government and perhaps is justified to change that to a decentralised network that has less political motivations under certain perspective.
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Would you bet on climbing challenges on: June 02, 2021, 09:02:24 AM
One of the most spectacular yet little known sports is climbing. One of the specialties is indoor competition where the athletes will compete on completing diabolical routes and doing so the fastest. If you have never seen a video, you really should.

There are many other options for betting, such a certain climbing finishing a certain route or climbing a certain mountain. The stars of this sport, both male and female, frequently declare their intentions of climbing routes and it is a open ground for bets. Is there already any place to bet on climbing competitions or challenges that you know of?

3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do you gamble with stocks? on: May 25, 2021, 11:58:04 PM
There is a trend that has increased with COVID and that is using the stock markets as if they were gambling platforms. The interaction, unpredictability, low fees and perceived "fairness" have led many people to place bets instead of considering stocks an investment. Not to mention playing with derivatives that multiply the value of the bet greatly.

Some signs of these are the people who follow Musk and "bet" on whatever he says or those who go to traders that have gamified platforms. Have you ever used a trading platform to gamble?
4  Economy / Economics / The Central Digital currencies will make monetary policy more difficult on: May 25, 2021, 03:47:34 PM
When a crisis arrives, central banks usually say that they will do whatever it takes to solve it, which usually means ridiculous amounts of money being printed a large amount of debt being bought. The traditional banking system "multiplies" the effect as a result of the fiduciary system (you can lend more than you have).

With the new digital central currencies such as yuan, euro, dollar,... anyone could potentially hold an account on a central bank skipping the intermediaries. I think that this will have a negative effect on the ability to cope with further crisis by monetary policies. The risk should not be ignored.
5  Economy / Economics / A bubble is when price is not justified on: May 21, 2021, 08:38:13 AM
A bubble is not about how high is the price of something (tulip bulbs, diamonds, dot-com stocks...), it is when the price is not justified. It is a bit for everyone to decide if the price of an asset is justified really, there is not a magic formula that will tell you if it is. In stocks or investments you can make a "discounted cash-flow" apply a rate of return and make some hypothesis about economy, growth and "moat" and at least you will get a number from it. On other assets, the price will be fixed by supply and demand (and that is the case for bitcoin) since they do not produce a regular cash flow.

When it comes to decide if there is a bubble, you have to think about how much is worth to you. How much would you pay to get, e.g. a 4% in dividend instead of spending the money today in a car or a TV? How much would you pay for a diamond or even a soccer ticket? (my personal for those two is quite low)? Or, How much would you pay for 1 in 21 million bitcoins?

Getting to the point, bubbles happen when you start buying something just because you think someone will pay more for it, instead of looking at how useful is it for you or for a community of people. Buying something is actually telling the market that they are wrong, and what you are buying is worth more than what the consensus means. This is being contrarian, anything else is speculating and creating bubbles.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Do you Howey your investment? on: May 13, 2021, 09:42:56 AM
I recently read a post on the Economy section about the legal status of the tokens and alt-coins in the USA. As many of you know or should know, there are strict regulations for the commercialisation of securities in the USA and the SEC is know to reach overseas as they deem fit if any US resident buys or sells or somewhat participates in these transactions.

Thus, my question: Do you Howey your investments in tokens? Are you aware of the consequences for a project if they are not compliant?
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Sumo betting seems rigged - can you make profit with it? on: May 11, 2021, 10:33:35 PM
It has been said that Sumo, the Japanese fighting sport is not as clean as it should be. Apparently, in the maximum cathegory - short of a premier league - there is tendency to let win those who need to win in order to remain in that cathegory. This was studied and mentioned later on a book called Freakconomics.

An article here-

Do you feel that knowing that a sport may be rigged you could actually turn it in your favour?

8  Economy / Economics / Could the digital Euro, Dollar or Yuan bank the unbanked? on: May 05, 2021, 01:19:55 PM
May time we forget that there are millions of people out there that do not have access to any type of banking. I am speaking of millions that do not geenrate a recurrent income, do not have access to credit and have their lives quite limited for that fact.

One of the possible advantages of having digital currencies that are recognised by strong central banks and can be moved digitally is the possible access of all this people to a system of storage, exchange and maybe even credit through the digital official coins. I can only begin to imagine how huge can be the economy enabled by these initiatives if bitcoin alone has already taken a preeminent place in a few countries such as Nigeria, Myanmar, Venezuela, ...
9  Economy / Economics / COVID advanced the world into the future on: May 05, 2021, 01:01:30 PM
I think most of us would rather not have had COVID. It has been devastating for many economies and it took a bad toll on people. However it has had some side benefits (some may argue that having Trump removed for now may be one of them, LOL).

I am talking about the digital revolution that was already taking place, yet still had some bumps along the road to occur, and has been forcefully implemented by many companies that required their people to keep on working. I am also talking about the immense number of new influencers and subscription services that had increased their adept several times-fold. All this would have taken ages otherwise.

demand for services that can be performed remotely or provide solutions to the challenges of reduced personal interactions, such as information and communications technology (ICT), and deliveries, has increased significantly. In a span of three months, the pandemic has resulted in a 63 percent reduction in demand for hotels, while increasing demand for ICT by a comparable rate

A source on the matter.

10  Local / Español (Spanish) / El EURO digital - q cabe esperar on: April 29, 2021, 09:47:27 AM
Voy a poner aqui una traduccion (aproximada) de mi post en la sección de Economia pq creo q es interesante para la sección hispana:

He leído sobre las conversaciones en relacion con el Euro digital aquí  y lo q piensan las instituciones europeas por ahora.

La consulta ciudadana manifiesta que a los ciudadanos les preocupa:
- La privacidad -  el 43% de la gente esta preocupada por esto!
- La utilidad y seguridad de uso.
- La integracion en los sistemas existentes.
- La efficiencia económica y gratiudad de uso.

Aunque el BCE reconoce la necesidad de privacidad también dicen que:
Los pagos con el euro digital podrían implementar distintos grados de privacidad, involucrando distintos equilibrios con otros objetivos politicos y regulatorios tales como combatir las actividades ilícitas
En teoría, los pagos con euros digitales podrían ser anónimos si la identidad de los usuarios no se verifica cuando accedan a los servicios del euro digital. Pero este anonimato proveería de un "suelo fértil" a las actividades ilegales y podría impedir el cumplimiento de regulaciones relativas a blanqueo de capitales y la lucha contra la financiación del terrorismo.

Asique, si, el BCE reconoce que la privacidad es una preocupación y si, las instituciones no harán el euro digital de por si por lo cual cabe esperar q no va a parecerse al dinero en efectivo y que la puerta a una vigilancia intrusiva de las transacciones particulares está completamente abierta.

Una pregunta q también me planteo es como puede afectar la implementación del euro digital frenta a la posible del dolar digital o el yuan digital a los tipos de cambio de las divisas, esto es, si va a ser un factor adicional de apetencia por cierta divisa unido a los tradicionales de tipos de interés, inflación,  etc..
11  Economy / Economics / How a digital EURO may look like on: April 29, 2021, 09:34:33 AM
I have read about the digital euro talks here and I think it is worth sharing with the forum what is the current thinking or the European Institutions:

Citizen´s consultation yield concerns about:

- Privacy - 43% of people are worried about this!!
- Usefulness and safety
- Integration in the current systems
- Efficient and cost-less

While the ECB acknowledges the need for privacy, they also say:

Digital euro payments could guarantee different degrees of privacy[7], involving different trade-offs with other policy and regulatory objectives such as the need to combat illicit activities

In theory, digital euro payments could be anonymous if users’ identities were not verified when they access digital euro services. But this anonymity would provide fertile ground for unlawful activities and could prevent compliance with regulations on anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism.

So, yes, privacy is going to be a concern, yes the institutions will not make digital euro anonymous per-se so I my view we should expect it to be very unlike cash and yes it does open the door to making cash restricted for very small payments and thus having a massive control over people.

My self-question is, up to what point a successful launch of a digital Euro, versus a Digital Yuan and a Digital USD may increase the attractive of these currencies and thus could impact the exchange rate beyond the usual interest rates / inflation / import-export components of the demand for currencies.
12  Economy / Economics / Facebook coin will now be DIEM on: April 20, 2021, 01:55:00 PM
This is not just a re-branding, the new global crypto backed by Facebook will not look at all like LIBRA was intended, but more like a digital dollar stablecoin. Facebook is known for trying many things and succeeding only in a few, so it will be something to follow closely. Regulations are probably a major obstacle.

The Diem Association is aiming to launch a pilot with a single stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar in 2021, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Formerly known as Libra, the Facebook-backed digital currency project faced strong opposition from regulators and lost several key backers and executives.
At the same time, Diem has gone through a complete makeover and is now in talks with Swiss financial regulators to secure a payment license.
13  Other / Off-topic / SUPERLEAGUE discussion thread on: April 20, 2021, 01:00:31 PM
Referred to...

there's no need for another super league thread.

⚠️NEW YOUR TIMES: Top European Soccer Teams Agree to Join Breakaway League⚠️

⚽ The European Super League ( ESL)

European Super League?

14  Economy / Economics / World risk - global on: April 20, 2021, 11:58:42 AM
For those unfamiliarised, this is a risk quadrant depicting the world level risks. How important the risk is is based on how likely is to materialise (likelyhood or frequency) and how bad is it (impact or severity).

For example something that is likely to happen and is disastrous will be on the top right corner. Risks that are unusual but terrible would be top left. In the inforgraphics you can see how climate change is quite likely and has severe consequences whereas weapons of mass destruction are less likely and even just equally as bad.

Now, where would you place the risk of a bitcoin hack o network problem in your finances and in the world finances?

15  Economy / Economics / Markets taking profit on: April 20, 2021, 11:03:59 AM
A few people may be wondering about the step drop of bitcoin price these last days. It is quite usual for it to move up and down, although lately it seems that movements are faster than usual.

Just take a wider look to understand:

NASDAQ 100, last month + 8%, last year +60%
S&P 500, last month +6.4%, last year +47%
Bitcoin, last month -4%, last year +639%

Since the start of the COVID (in practice) to now, most indexed have exceeded their average returns, not to mention bitcoin. A movement such as this is a consequence and it may still be followed by more falls without meaning anything other than a profit taking and some caution around the ATHs.
16  Economy / Economics / Bernard Madoff dies in prison. A 20 year long Ponzi on: April 14, 2021, 06:06:12 PM
80 years old, kidney failure, the judge did not allow him to go home to die there.

Madoff run what is considered one of the longer lasting Ponzi schemes. It lasted decades and it took with it the saving of many notable citizens, particularly those of the Jew community with whom he had close links. For example the Nobel price laureate Elie Wiesel, whose charity managed to lose in excess of 15M. And all these institutions...

 It is amazing how long a Ponzi may last.

Exceptional returns
Mr Madoff,the son of European immigrants who grew up in New York,set up his eponymous firm Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities in 1960.

The company became one of the largest market-makers - matching buyers and sellers of stocks - and Mr Madoff served as chairman of the Nasdaq stock exchange.

The firm was investigated eight times by the US Securities and Exchange Commission because it made exceptional returns.

But it was the global recession which effectively prompted Mr Madoff's demise as investors, hit by the downturn, tried to withdraw about $7bn from his funds and he could not find the money to cover it.

17  Economy / Economics / Coinbase has started trading in NASDAQ minutes ago on: April 14, 2021, 05:46:23 PM
Starting price of nearly 400USD well above the expectations, values Coinbase above 100B. This is nearly double the indicative price of 250 setout just a week ago. It is obviously not a coincidence that bitcoin has an ATH just a day ago is it?

The listing took place a bit later than expected and at a much higher price. Ticker COIN.

Edited: 100B not 100M. At close it was around 85B.
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Do you limit your gambling time? on: April 13, 2021, 10:33:12 AM
This is about how do you make sure that you are gambling in full control. There are many people who are easily brought into gambling beyond fun and that is a problem for them and also for the gambling industry, because it is for them that there are limitations in many countries.

Do you actually...
- Have a weekly budget to play and do not ever go over it?
- Not ever get in debt for gambling?
- Have an allocated time for gambling and never exceed it?
- Gamble only socially with friends of relatives?
- Have someone helping you control your gambling?
19  Economy / Economics / Biden infrastructure investment - got it right? on: April 11, 2021, 01:24:01 AM
The overall context here about China catching up in GDP with the US and the US being each day more limited in the resources to answer this threat. And yes, it is a threat to have a large rival exerting strong soft and hard diplomacy that is not aligned with your interests.

This race, that China seems to be on its way to win despite the imbalances and government methods used, cannot be won by the US doing the same things. As someone said "it is stupid to expect different results doing the same things". I think that Biden´s plan is long overdue for the US. A clear bet on growth to really "make America (the US at least) great again" and so on. However, the effectiveness will be very dependant on how this is really spent and if it is channelled to productive investment and not helicopter money.

More taxes, more government spending, more debt,... Does anyone doubt of the effect this is having and will have on bitcoin price?
20  Economy / Economics / Diversifying with REITs - buy a prison :) on: April 11, 2021, 01:15:25 AM
Again, a post about an alternative investment, for those who want to have something apart from their bag of bitcoin. If you have considered investing outside the cryptosphere, you probably thought about buying real state and, unless you have quite a bit of assets or you live in a country that is cheap, you probably figured out that it requires significant investment (technically this is called "barrier to entry").

Well, there is a simple way to invest in real state and this is called a REIT, basically funds that invest in real state and usually give a large share of any rent profit as dividends (by law). The amazing thing about these is that you are not limited to one region or country and you can invest in a variety of real state assets, for example:
- Houses
- Care homes
- Prisons (yes, you read it right).
- Office space.
- Retail space.
- other...

Also the barriers to entry are really minimal is most of these. So, there you go, another option.
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