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1  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin Gains by Country (from Chainanalysis) on: June 11, 2021, 02:08:36 PM
This thread is written with information from two sourced articles.

2020 Estimated Realized Bitcoin Gains by Country
  • United States: $4.4 B
  • China: $1.1 B
  • Japan: $0.9 B
  • United Kingdom: $0.8 B
  • Russian Federation: $0.6 B
  • Germany: $0.6 B
  • France: $0.6 B
  • Spain: $0.5 B
  • Korea, Rep., Ukraine, Netherlands, Canada, Vietnam: ~$0.4 B
Impressive stats for the USA with $4.4 B gains and this figure is about 4 times of China. China is the leader in Asia continent on which a big surprise is from India. The serious and chaotic regulations from Indian governments make India falls to rank 18theven it is the second populous nations on Earth.

Over months in 2020, most of gains are in last months of 2020. Investors from the USA have dominant profits and most of them are made on Coinbase.

Dominant gains from the USA investors are understandable if we are aware of institutional investments in 2020. You can see it in the Bitcoin Treasuries as well. Most of institutional investors are USA companies.

2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin bull run, it's time to debunk Bitcoin FUD. on: May 26, 2021, 03:36:47 PM
Here. I am not arguing with you about where we are and where the market is temporarily as well as how it will move.

I share one website for you that I am sure will be helpful for you in long term. If you are a bitcoiner or a newbie in this market, spend your time to read documents on that website. You will not regret it.

When you read and prepare enough knowledge about Bitcoin FUD, you will be more confident when FUD pops-up.

The website is Endthefud.org that supplies
Quote
The best links to articles debunking Bitcoin FUD.

Let's get started and debunk Bitcoin FUD, and prepare for Bitcoin next top around $100k.
  • Slap yourself if you are unknowledgeable and only want to gamble.
  • Slap yourself if you sell your Bitcoin below $100k in this bull run.
  • Slap yourself if you are greed and get liquidated.

Also check Bitcoin Obituaries to see in the past, how Bitcoin moves after FUD finished its goals.
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Telegram moderator - Translation - Publication - Clean-up service [For Hire] on: May 22, 2021, 04:01:01 AM
        Telegram Community Management Service        
            Fast    -    Friendly    -    Flexible              


About me
  • Self-made Legendary member. All my 2230 merits so far are self-earned
  • I've been in crypto market since 2017



My contributions Effectively check post quality



Provided services
  • Translation: English -- Vietnamese
  • Telegram community management
  • Publication service


Translation service
  • For crypto exchanges, websites, whitepapers, light papers, documents but your projects need to be legit.
  • Gives you localized version from English to traditional Vietnamese
  • Typo-checking from raw version to final version on your website
  • High quality guarantee



Telegram community management service
  • Cost: $100 per week (base price). It can be changed (higher) if your community is too big as well as additional tasks.
  • I can manage it in English or Vietnamese.
  • If you want to localize your Telegram community to Vietnamese, I am available to work with you
  • Disclaimer:
    • I only manage your community for support-related inquiries
    • I do neither provide this service to advertise your exchange nor to bring new customers to yours
    • I am not responsible for unexpected activities from the service. I am not the operator of those services
    • If you need a team of Telegram moderators, I can provide it
    • If you need to localize your Telegram communities, this service is for you
Communities I manage so far:


Publication service
  • I can publish your Announcement topics, for your projects or for your bounties.
  • I will only accept yours if your project is legit.
  • Cost: $100 per Announcement
  • Disclaimer: with this service, I don't manage anything, the internal team do.


Clean-up service

If you have a legit project, are serious with it as well as the bounties you are running. Consequently, you don't want to pay stakes, money for shit posts, shit messages (on Telegram, Twitter, Facebook, etc.)

And if you need someone to get rid of lazy participants (with reused contents, plagiarized and non-sense posts, etc.) and weed out rubbish comments. Please contact me.

This service is available for
  • All days of week
  • Only in weekends


Payments
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Tether USD (USDT): on ERC-20 or TRC-20 chain
  • We can discuss for payment methods



Contacts
  • Feel free to shoot me with PMs or drop your reply in this thread.
  • I am here nearly 14/7.
  • My Telegram: @tranthidung1292764 Remember to get it in username, not in Bio area -- account uses it in Bio are is impersonator

***
I am sorry to you first.
  • Don't contact me if your projects are scam

Best regards,

Tran Dzung
4  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / [BGL] BitGeSell Buy Demand on: May 19, 2021, 04:36:45 AM
I would like to open my buy offers for Bitgesell (BGL)

  • My Tether USD (USDT) exchanges for your Bitgesell coin (BGL)
  • My trade will be done on TRC 20 chain.
  • Rate: at 0.038 USDT for 1 BGL
  • 10000 BGL for this round

If you are interested in, leave your post here. Details will be sent in PM.

Best regards,

Tran Dzung
5  Economy / Lending / I need a non collateral loan. Amount 0.05 BTC. 2 to 4 weeks. on: April 07, 2021, 11:32:01 AM
I need a non-collateral loan. Details
  • Amount: 0.05 BTC
  • Interest rate (in BTC): 5% / month.
  • I would like the period from 2 weeks to 4 weeks
  • I will sign a message for this loan.

Thank you.  Smiley
6  Other / Beginners & Help / Make sure you get legit bitcoin and its wallets, resources on: March 20, 2021, 10:50:42 AM
Bitcoin is moving to the Moon and you won't be able to have enough fund (if you are not millionaire/ billionaire) to buy 1 BTC. Scammers will appear more and scam you. They can scam you with fake deals to sell Test net bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash (a most famous shit fork from bitcoin) and remember there are many other clone coins with Bitcoin as prefix in their coin names.


Most famous scam website
Code:
https://www.bitcoin.com/

  • Trying to scam people that Bitcoin Cash is a real Bitcoin (in ticker, color (initially they used Orange color, not Green)
  • Example with one archive from Wayback Machine: Wallet for the scam site

Screenshost (the second screen shot is taken from @pooya87's topic, it's my unofficial thanks to him.

Notes
  • Visit official pages of bitcoin community and bitcoin developers
  • Don't visit and use
    • bitcoin[dot]com
    • It is a scam website from Roger Ver to shill Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Don't trust that site when you buy Bitcoin, download bitcoin wallet, whatever things relate to bitcoin.
  • It is not enough, if you don't verify your wallets
  • Verify your wallets with PGP key (always)
  • Carefully check (double-/ tripple-check) coin name and coin ticker when you make your bitcoin transactions in and out exchanges/ wallets.

Other resources
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Rich List on: March 19, 2021, 07:56:00 AM
Rich List definition
  • Rich means address that stores 1000+ BTC inside
  • It is for addresses, not person or entity. You can not define it with available free tool.
  • Even with advanced and paid tools, you can not find/ track all of them

2264 bitcoin addresses that have 1000+ BTC as of writing. You can check it instantly with [5] (you don't have to wait for any publications. Check it by yourself with that link anytime)

Given articles and charts can tell you the story. I don't try to paraphrase the opinions that are already discussed in those articles.

Here, I only want to emphasize one point:
  • Whales are the game-makers.
  • You can follow them up, observe their activities, movements but if you strongly believe in their responses, you will always join the party later than them or you exit the game too late or stucked at peaks/ all time highs.

8  Other / Beginners & Help / [Guide] Use CPFP if your stucked transactions from blockchain.com wallet on: March 16, 2021, 12:06:41 PM
  • This thread is for newbies, not experts so please ignore it if you are experts.
  • If you are experts and have information to help me, I much appreciate it.
  • For details of CPFP, read the guide of @mocacinno. My thread is to help you a hint to resolve your stucked transactions on blockchain.com wallet by using Electrum wallet


Blockchain.com (formerly is blockchain.info) wallet is one of the first wallet people use as their first bitcoin wallet. I don't discuss reasons in this thread.

That wallet give you a seed of 12 words (Secret Private Key Recovery Phrase, according to how the wallet describe it in Security settings) that you need to write down and back it up safely. If you lose them, you lose your wallet (skip the opinion of wallet recovery, etc. It works but it is beyond my thread).

If you have a backup, you can recover it on blockchain.com or with another non-custodial wallet such as Electrum.
  • Download: https://electrum.org/#download
  • Verify your Electrum wallet: DireWolfM14's guide
  • See and practice the recovery step as follows
    • After you copy and paste (or manually type your 12 words),  click on Options and choose BIP39 seed
    • If your 12 words are correct, you will see BIP39 (checksum: ok)
    • Choose types of address in your wallet: legacy (p2pkh) -- it is the address on blockchain.com wallet. With a same seed (12 words), you can import it into Electrum and get 3 types of wallets
    • Set up a password to encrypt your wallet file and Finish
    • Check your addresses (last image) to make sure you recover the same wallet with seed from blockchain.com
Ok, it is for wallet recovery and import your blockchain.com wallet into Electrum wallet.


Stucked transactions
  • This guide is not on how to make a transaction from Blockchain.com wallet. Search and do it on your side.
  • Notes: blockchain.com wallet suggest you to use a high transaction fees that what you should use with two default options (Regular and Priority: 11 sat/byte and 98 sat/byte, respectively.
  • If you don't agree with two default fee rates, you can Customize it, but you can not set a too low fee rate.
  • Even your customized fee rate is allowed to use, your transaction can be stucked.
  • More importantly, you can bump the fee with Replace by fee or Child Pay for Parent with Blockchain.com wallet

If you customize with a too low fee rate, 1 sat/byte, ie. you will get the warning.
Low fee is not recommended. Use the minimum.
The minimum fee rate is allowed by blockchain.com wallet is 5 sat/byte as of the time I made that transaction. I decided to use 8 sat/byte but I know it will be stucked.

Example transaction (to be stucked)

Pop up messages (Green: when your customized fee rate is >= minimum. Red: when your customized fee rate < minimum and you can not use it).

Make your CPFP transaction to unstuck your stucked transactions Read the full guide of @mocacinno for details

Make sure after you make your first Child-Pay-For-Parent transaction, check setting in your Electrum wallet, and tick the option Relace-by-Fee. With an opt-in Replace-by-Fee transaction, you can bump the fee later.


Check fee rates for your transaction
9  Economy / Trading Discussion / Reminder for crypto newbies, traders. Be cautious with new exchanges on: March 09, 2021, 07:29:05 AM
I am not sure Beginners & Help or Trading discussion is a best board for this topic. I leave it here. If it belongs to Beginners & Help, please move it.


In bull market, projects are created daily and exchanges are created to list new coins or tokens. You never know which teams are behind exchangers. Are they scammers and own some scam projects? What are purposes of those people when they create exchangers?

Years ago, in 2018, I lost my money with my stupid ignorance on advice from senior members. "Never store your cryptocurrency on exchanges. Store them in your non-custodial wallets."

Story
  • Altex [1] is the exchanger that very friendly to list Cryptonight coins.
  • Cryptonight coins were created abundantly in that year. Easy to mine with GPUs.
  • The exchanger listed new coins without listing fees (as I recalled).
  • They quickly accept any listing request -- that I believe you will see more in this current bullish market.
  • Early signal of scam exit [2]
  • Less than one month later, they made that annoucement [3] and exit.

Advice
  • Don't blindly accept new exchangers because you are greed and want to get rich fastly
  • Don't blindly make big deposit just to claim deposit bonus
  • Pay your attention on early signals of scam exit
  • and more. Generally, be cautious with new exchangers in the bull market

Resources
10  Economy / Service Discussion / jochen-hoenicke.de and blockchair.com charts. What's wrong with them yesterday? on: February 23, 2021, 05:24:23 AM

I check jochen-hoenicke.de website [1] every day and yesterday, it did not display the visual chart (all in plain white background). Today it works again but those charts have some dips to zero at one point. I thought it is technical problems from the website or its related full node.

I double checked with blockchair.com [2] and found a sudden drop of transaction count.

What happened with them?

[1] https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),24h
[2] https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/charts/transaction-count
11  Economy / Trading Discussion / Do crypto enthusiasts truly believe in bitcoin, cryptocurrency? on: January 17, 2021, 01:42:29 PM
I am working with some data for Total value lock in USD of top 10 Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platforms and I noticed this interesting fact from available charts.
Source: https://defipulse.com/

  • Total value locked (USD) in DeFi has been rising a lot and you can call it as exponential growth.
  • Total BTC or ETH locked in DeFi is decreasing.
My naive interpretation
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum has risen around 3 times from their price in August of 2020. Total value locked (USD) in DeFi rose about 2 times. Those amount of bitcoin or Ethereum are currently locked in DeFi fall about half of theirs in August 2020
  • It discloses a fact that most of people who are participating in crypto market care about their fiat, not Bitcoin, not Ethereum, not DeFi.
  • It seems people are more readily to lock a planned or fixed amount of USD in DeFi. They are not planning to lock a fix amount of bitcoin or Ethereum in DeFi.
12  Other / Beginners & Help / Guide to check fees: Taker, maker, deposit, withdrawal, transaction fees on: January 15, 2021, 01:00:24 AM
It is for people who need it. I truly believe that most of us are not over-paranoid about such things.

Notes
  • With any coin, I believe you can have cheaper transaction fees on weekends.
  • It is already proven with Bitcoin or Ethereum transactions.
  • Make your weekly / hourly plans to save transaction fees


Table of contents



1. Withdrawalfees.com Back to table of contents
Link

Pros
  • It provides a huge list of exchanges (60) and coins (2301)
  • It is likely real-time updated (not sure)
  • You can choose to get list for specific coin or specific exchange

Cons
  • There is no option to filter the fee ascendingly or descendingly. Frankly, I don't know why website does not include this basic feature.


2. Cointracker.io Back to table of contents
Link

Pros
  • The table is neatly visually.
  • There are few stats: Deposit, Withdrawal, Taker, maker, spread.

Cons
  • It is not a real-time database. The last update is on January 11, 2021./li]
3. Blockchair.com Back to table of contents
Visit their Compare crypto page

Pros
  • real time updates from blockchain operational status
  • You can compare transaction fees of some crypto currencies: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin ABC, Ethereum, Litecoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, DASH, Groestlcoin, Stellar, Monero, Cardano, and Zcash.

Cons
  • Stats are for networks, and does not have information for exchanges (Deposit, Withdrawal, Taker, Maker fees)
  • The table shows 5 coins at the same time (even you add more than 5 coins into the filter). Therefore, you have to do it for each 5 coins, copy & paste results to your sheet and repeat it again a few times if you want to get full sheet for all available coins.
  • You can not customize which statistics you want to see


4. Bitinforcharts.com Back to table of contents
Link. It is a link (with chart, stats) for bitcoin.

Pros
  • You can add other coins by clicking on their ticker labels.
  • There is option to customize which statistics you want to see & compare. Click on the left corner drop-down box as shown in the sreenshot (Average transaction fee, USD -- change it to what you want)
  • You can narrow down the period you want. As I do in the screenshot, hover the mouse on the period (in grey), right click, and get a chart for that period.

Cons
  • It simply provides you stats for networks, not exchanges


5. Crypto51.app Back to table of contents
Link
Read their attack cost formula with their explantion: How is the attack cost calculated?

Pros
  • Details on theoretical attack cost for many cryptocurrency networks.
  • It is helpful to warn you risks of replay attacks if you want to move your fund with alternative cryptocurrency, that tends to have lower hashrates on the network and more vulnerable to attacks

Cons
  • Stats can be inaccurate.
  • It simply provides you stats for networks, not exchanges


6. Cryptowisser.com Back to table of contents
Link
You can get the taker, maker fee and there are some options for you to customize the filter.


7. Threads/ articles on effects of hour-frames or weekend-days Back to table of contents

Sneak peak from my analyses
Bitcoin transaction fee
Weekend effects

Working-hour effects

ETH and ERC20 transaction fee (gas used and gas limit)
Click to see details
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Total value locked in USD of top 10 Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platforms on: January 13, 2021, 06:53:28 AM
  • This thread is planned to update monthly
  • I will expand it to rest DeFi platforms (beyond top 10)
  • It is purely statistics but from these you can get a picture, then connects it with Bitcoin price as well as the developments, promotions, drama of each platform



Top 10 DeFi platforms, in terms of total value locked in USD with the snapshot on 12 Jan 2021 are:

Notes

Time series plots

In this part, I split them into 2 categories: top 1-5 and top 6-10. Reason: Combine all ten tokens in 1 chart makes it bad visually.
From 2 plots, you can see:
  • During around 3 months, Uniswap, Sushiswap and Curve Finance are the most volatile DeFi platforms.
  • Uniswap that has a big drop in middle of November 2020. Within almost the same period, capital switched to Sushiswap that is reflected by a take-off of total value locked in Sushiswap. The platform after that has maintained its upward trend but it is still far from Uniswap.
  • Curve Finance has almost same hiccup as of Uniswap and same pattern of rally.
  • The rest 7 platforms don't have much volatile changes


Box plots
In this part, I draw 2 plots with 2 different time frames:
  • Time windows
    • Whole: 14 Oct 2020 to 12 Jan 2021
    • Censored: 01 Dec 2020 to 12 Jan 2021
  • The first box plot shows bigger boxes (widths of boxes), especially boxes for Uniswap, Sushiswap, and Curve Finance. It is logical as the aforementioned explanations. 3 platforms have some big changes in the whole period.
  • The second box plot show narrower boxes for 3 platforms as they present for a period that don't include those big volatile changes. This plot reflect absolutely right the positions of top 10 platforms on DefiPulse.com
  • Maker is the biggest and one of most stable platforms (see the Dark-orange box -- it is narrow) and compares it with time series plot above). Moreover, Maker stays very stably above others in interquartile range (the box), median (the vertical line inside box) and the range from lower to upper whiskers. It is right for whole or censored time window.
14  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / GDLC real-time observation with Trade block DLCX index on: January 12, 2021, 03:22:32 AM
Grayscale is a big guy in crypto and they are the one who triggered the wave of institutional investment in 2020. Some people also call this wave as institutional bubble. Ignore what they want to seed or imply with such news. I will introduce you to a website that allows you to observe the real-time, chronological changes of Grayscale investments (via compositions and performance of their GDLC index).

Here is the introduction on the FAQ page [1] of Grayscale:
Quote
*TradeBlock also publishes the TradeBlock DLCX Index, which allows investors and other market participants to obtain enhanced real-time transparency into the composition and performance of GDLC. While GDLC’s portfolio construction methodology was developed and is managed by Grayscale, an intra-day index price is calculated, verified, and published in real-time by TradeBlock, an independent pricing source. For more information, please visit: https://tradeblock.com/markets/dlcx.

What is GDLC?
  • It is the abbreviation for: Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC
  • Definition: "Grayscale’s diversified Product, Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, provides exposure to the top liquid digital assets by market capitalization and currently holds BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC, and BCH." I took it from top of the FAQ page. [1]
[1] https://grayscale.co/faq/

Where to get data or chart for GDLC?
  • GDLC index on OTCmarkets.com (You can get data, chart and are allowed to download data tables)
  • Tradeblock.com (this website gives you more details on compositions of GDLC and their changes. Customize the chart with 1h, 2h, 6h, 1d, 1w time-frame)

Ripple is disappeared on the table data after the lawsuit from SEC.


Coindesk purchased Trade block recently: CoinDesk Acquires TradeBlock, Adding Indexes and Pricing to News, Events Offerings
15  Economy / Economics / Stable coins - Price, volume history and changes with bitcoin fluctuations on: January 09, 2021, 01:45:36 PM
Stable coins have their impacts on crypto market. Usually, when more Tether USD is minted (from the air or from any asset used to back it, it is not an objective for this topic discussion), the crypto market has a big wave.

To start, I give you some documents to read:

In this thread, I will present 2 parts:
  • Part 1: The price and volume history of some stable coins.
  • Part 2: Changes of stable coin price with fluctuations (rises/ falls) of bitcoin
  • Data sources: https://coinmarketcap.com/

Part 1
In this thread, I collected data and analysis for stable coins as follow:
  • USDT
  • USDC
  • BUSD
  • DAI
  • TUSD
  • GUSD
  • PAX
  • EOSDT

The era of stable coins probably began in 2017 (this statement is based on the data, and I've not yet digged deeply to their histories).
Let's jump to their daily volumes and summary stats for the period from Jan 2020 to 8 Jan 2021. This step is to classify them into high and low daily volume categories.
  • USDT (Tether USD) is outperforms others in daily volume. You can see this fact with median (p50), minimum (min) and maximum (max) values.
  • The next two stable coins are: USDC and BUSD.
  • Hence, I will run analysis for 2 categories: High volume (USDT, BUSD, and USDC -- it is unfair for USDT to be classified in the same category with BUSD and USDC but let it be); and Low volume (DAI, TUSD, GUSD, PAX, and EOSDT)
  • In this analysis, I convert original figures from coinmarketcap.com to $billion

Raw result
Code:
   variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     USDTbil |     374.0      45.6      19.2      43.3      33.1      54.3      15.4     131.6
      DAIbil |     374.0       0.1       0.1       0.0       0.0       0.1       0.0       1.2
     TUSDbil |     374.0       0.3       0.3       0.1       0.1       0.5       0.0       1.8
     GUSDbil |     374.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.1
      PAXbil |     374.0       0.3       0.3       0.2       0.2       0.4       0.1       1.5
     USDCbil |     374.0       0.6       0.4       0.5       0.4       0.7       0.2       3.3
     BUSDbil |     374.0       0.3       0.5       0.1       0.1       0.4       0.0       3.4
    EOSDTbil |     374.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Box plots
  • I exclude USDT from box plots for other stable coins and run a special one for it, stratifying over months (from Jan 2020 to 8 Jan 2021).
  • With the box plot, you can with non-USDT stable coins, the best three ones are: USDC, PAX and BUSD. Best here means the highest vertical lines inside box plots for each stable coin. The line represents for median value.
  • If you notice in the raw result table, with the p75 value, BUSD and PAX have same value at 0.4 bil. that is almost half of USDC at 0.7 bil. I did not look deeper but I guess BUSD only grown well in later of 2020. I will run further analysis later for BUSD.
  • USDT: Its volume increases since Jan 2020, and remains almost stable from Feb 2020 to May 2020 before having drops within 2 months (Jun - July 2020). After that, it rises a lot till Jan 2021. The box plot reflects this fact very well.
  • Note: In all box plots, outliers are excluded to make it visual readable

Time series plots
In the plot for top 3 stable coins, I used the multiplier at 10 for BUSD and USDC to make plots more visually comparative.
  • Even with the multiplier, volume of BUSD and USDC are still very smaller than volume of USDT.
  • From these plots, you can see the business launch periods or at least the appearance on coinmarketcap of 3 stable coins: USDT (early of 2017), USDC (in late of second half of 2018), BUSD (in late of the second half of 2019)
  • Interesting point is both USDC and BUSD have later appearance dates on coinmarketcap than a few other stable coins. Impressively, they have been growing faster. It is not a surprise if you know they are backed by Binance and Coinbase.



Part 2 (will be updated later, but it will be something like that and maybe with some upgraded ideas)
From the raw result table, the box plot (with width of boxes and ranges between whiskers), and the bar chart, I can draw some conclusions
  • Stable coins are not truly stable in their prices (as many people believe in or as those companies try to seed their products). What are stable coins if they indeed have changes more than 10 percent between 2 consecutive days.
  • It is the rates for global market and I expect for bigger % in local markets.
  • USDT is the best stable coin in stability (interquartile range from p25 to p75 values, min and max values)
  • The 2 worst stable coins in stability are EOSDT and PAX.

Raw results
Code:
   variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   pclowUSDT |     373.0       0.0       0.8       0.0      -0.1       0.1      -7.1      10.1
   pclowBUSD |     373.0       0.0       0.9       0.0      -0.1       0.1      -7.2      11.6
    pclowDAI |     373.0       0.0       1.0       0.0      -0.2       0.3      -5.9       5.3
  pclowEOSDT |     373.0       0.0       2.0      -0.0      -0.5       0.4     -18.3      25.3
   pclowGUSD |     373.0       0.0       1.5       0.0      -0.4       0.4     -12.2       7.4
    pclowPAX |     373.0       0.0       1.0       0.0      -0.1       0.2      -9.6      12.7
   pclowTUSD |     373.0       0.0       0.6       0.0      -0.1       0.1      -4.6       4.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
16  Economy / Trading Discussion / Google Trend and Bitcoin price. Do retailers rejoin the party? on: January 06, 2021, 03:27:46 AM
From the visual chart, it seems that retailers (old, new) rejoin or join the party again. The time-series line for Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.

The thread is to announce the potential of a new wave from retailers. A reminder is you do know what sort of retailers' effects and their longevitty, then what will happen after that.

It is a very simplified view. Sometimes, we need to be as simplest as possible.  Cheesy

From the data points around 15k (Bitcoin Google trend) to 20k, it is ~ 33% increase for Bitcoin Google trend. Within the same period, the price of bitcoin rose from $15455 to $19140. It is about 23.85% rise.

If history repeats itself, the price of bitcoin from current all time high at $34778 will rise up to $43072. That price is still lower than some other speculation.

Again, it is not my financial advice, just my opinion and another different way to view the market.  Wink



Data sources
17  Other / Beginners & Help / Old story. Exchanges get profits from users' withdrawal fees. on: January 05, 2021, 05:38:28 AM
It is not a new story, a new theory.

Exchanges always do batch payments for their customers' withdrawal requests. They do only one batch payment in a single transaction for 10, 20, 50 withdrawals from 10, 20, 50 customers. For each customer, they charge a fix amount of withdrawal fee.

Hey. Let's see how they earn profits from the type of fee.
This transaction has:
  • 1 input (from the exchange)
  • 74 outputs (to 74 customers)
  • Each withdrawal will be charged with 0.0005 BTC as fee.
  • Net withdrawal fee: 74 x 0.005 = 0.037 BTC
  • The fee the exchange paid to miner is: 0.002554 BTC
  • Profit = 0.037 - 0.002554 =.034446 BTC
  • Profit in USD: 0.034446 *31000 = $1067.826

You can check this fact whenever you make your withdrawal on any exchange.



A simple message
  • Choose a non-custodial wallet and use it to store your bitcoin and to broadcast your bitcoin transactions if you are not trading on exchanges.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Bitcoin, altcoin season index on: December 31, 2020, 12:49:52 PM
Bitcoin has it big impacts on altcoins but the truth is many crypto investors allocate main of their capital for altcoins. Experienced and successful investors do oppositely, invest in bitcoin for most of their capital.

There is a website that gives quick views (with chart and some details) on bitcoin and altcoin season.

  • Where? Blockchaincenter.net
  • Information
    • Altcoin season
    • Altcoin month
    • Altcoin year
    • List (in grid) of altcoins perform better or worse than bitcoin

It is for reference and only give you quick overview. It is funny for the part 'Altcoin year'. I have never thought there is a year in which bitcoin performs worse than altcoins. It would be especially true if the index is calculated from top 100 altcoins, not a single altcoin.


Ideas for developers?
  • It can be expanded to a few sub-categories in crypto market. More expanded seasons as DeFi season (LOL, I did not think there will be many DeFi shit tokens can last long)
19  Other / Meta / News area. Is it a bug when I click on quote on: December 26, 2020, 05:18:39 AM
Normally, the News area will be displayed like this:

But if I click on the Quote button, it is broken and hyperlink will be shown in the brackets like the following screenshot. Is it a bug or only a broken display from SMF then can not be fixed?
20  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin Streaks (Rise/ Fall) - 2013 to 2020 on: December 20, 2020, 12:57:24 PM
Before jump into the content, I hope you are doing well and enjoying the crazy bull run of bitcoin.


Bitcoin is volatile and it rises or falls in small or big changes over time. This thread is published to give information about Bitcoin streaks. The term of streak is familiar with gamblers but for non-gamblers and non-native English speakers, you might confuse about it. Let's me explain a bit.

Streak means something happen in-a-row, continuously. It can be win / loss, rise/ fall. The alternative term can be spell. It is a language term and you can choose one that fits you, just understand the meaning of streak I use here.

Definitions
  • Rise streaks: a streak when % change between close price and open price is Positive (>0) for at least 5 days in-a-row.
  • Fall streaks: a streak when % change between close price and open price is Negative (<0) for at least 5 days in-a-row.
  • Generally, streaks here are 5+-days streaks (positive or negative).

We are enjoying the crazy bull run so let's get started with Rise streaks.
Rise Streaks
Color codes


Summary
Bitcoin broke the record in 2017 and increased a lot after that but in some indicators (below), the current bull run and this year are not the longest and biggest run of bitcoin. It is true in indicators for total rise streaks, total days of all streaks within a year, maximum of longevity of streaks within a year, average value of % changes of price for all streaks within a year.

Details
2017 is the year is highest total rise streaks (10), second is 2019 (9), 2013 ( 8 ).
Code:
   +----------------------------+
     | rank   year   YearlyStreak |
     |----------------------------|
  1. |    1   2017             10 |
  2. |    2   2019              9 |
  3. |    3   2013              8 |
  4. |    4   2016              7 |
  5. |    5   2020              7 |
  6. |    6   2015              6 |
  7. |    7   2018              4 |
  8. |    8   2014              3 |
     +----------------------------+

Top 3 years in mean of poc_s of all streaks in each year are: 2013 (31.47%), 2017 (28.51%), 2014 (22.52%)
Code:
    +------------------------+
     | rank   year      poc_s |
     |------------------------|
  1. |    1   2013   31.46625 |
  2. |    2   2017     28.507 |
  3. |    3   2014      22.52 |
  4. |    4   2018    21.8975 |
  5. |    5   2020   18.19571 |
  6. |    6   2019   18.19333 |
  7. |    7   2015   14.46667 |
  8. |    8   2016   11.60429 |
     +------------------------+

Ranks for all Rise streaks according to poc_s values
Code:
    +------------------------------+
     | rank   year   _spell   poc_s |
     |------------------------------|
  1. |    1   2017       34   80.68 |
  2. |    2   2013        7    69.7 |
  3. |    3   2013        6      50 |
  4. |    4   2013        8   46.11 |
  5. |    5   2019       45   43.37 |
  6. |    6   2013        1   43.26 |
  7. |    7   2017       29   40.27 |
  8. |    8   2017       31   37.87 |
  9. |    9   2020       54   32.23 |
 10. |   10   2017       30   29.42 |
 11. |   11   2017       32   28.73 |
 12. |   12   2018       35   28.64 |
 13. |   13   2020       50   27.93 |
 14. |   14   2018       38   27.75 |
 15. |   15   2014        9   26.27 |
 16. |   16   2019       42    25.4 |
 17. |   17   2017       33   24.58 |
 18. |   18   2019       46   23.98 |
 19. |   19   2014       11   23.79 |
 20. |   20   2015       16   23.08 |
 21. |   21   2016       19   20.64 |
 22. |   22   2016       24   20.21 |
 23. |   23   2018       37   19.76 |
 24. |   24   2015       12   19.14 |
 25. |   25   2015       17   17.89 |
 26. |   26   2019       44    17.6 |
 27. |   27   2014       10    17.5 |
 28. |   28   2020       48   16.88 |
 29. |   29   2020       53   16.84 |
 30. |   30   2016       23    16.6 |
 31. |   31   2019       43    14.7 |
 32. |   32   2020       52   14.52 |
 33. |   33   2017       25   13.34 |
 34. |   34   2013        3   13.13 |
 35. |   35   2017       28   11.94 |
 36. |   36   2017       27   11.92 |
 37. |   37   2019       47   11.65 |
 38. |   38   2018       36   11.44 |
 39. |   39   2019       41   11.12 |
 40. |   40   2013        5   11.08 |
 41. |   41   2019       39   10.57 |
 42. |   42   2015       15   10.38 |
 43. |   43   2016       20   10.25 |
 44. |   44   2020       49   10.16 |
 45. |   45   2015       13    9.64 |
 46. |   46   2013        2    9.49 |
 47. |   47   2016       21    9.25 |
 48. |   48   2013        4    8.96 |
 49. |   49   2020       51    8.81 |
 50. |   50   2015       14    6.67 |
 51. |   51   2017       26    6.32 |
 52. |   52   2019       40    5.35 |
 53. |   53   2016       18    2.18 |
 54. |   54   2016       22     2.1 |
     +------------------------------+

Fall Streaks

2014 is the most terrible years according to total fall streaks (9). For rest years, there is no significant difference when the values range from 3 to 1. If you notice, total fall streaks each year (in bull or bear market, tend to be less than total Rise streaks). Amazing right?
Code:
    +----------------------------+
     | rank   year   YearlyStreak |
     |----------------------------|
  1. |    1   2014              9 |
  2. |    2   2018              3 |
  3. |    3   2016              3 |
  4. |    4   2020              2 |
  5. |    5   2019              2 |
  6. |    6   2013              1 |
  7. |    7   2015              1 |
     +----------------------------+

2018 is the year with most terrible mean of poc_s value for all streak in that year (-16.92%), next years are 2014 (-12.07%), 2016 (-11.03%).
Code:
    +-------------------------+
     | rank   year       poc_s |
     |-------------------------|
  1. |    1   2018   -16.92333 |
  2. |    2   2014   -12.07111 |
  3. |    3   2016   -11.03333 |
  4. |    4   2019     -10.745 |
  5. |    5   2020      -9.955 |
  6. |    6   2015       -9.45 |
  7. |    7   2013       -8.71 |
     +-------------------------+

Ranks for all Fall streaks according to poc_s values
Code:
    +-------------------------------+
     | rank   year   _spell    poc_s |
     |-------------------------------|
  1. |    1   2018       15   -22.91 |
  2. |    2   2016       12   -20.37 |
  3. |    3   2014        8    -17.6 |
  4. |    4   2014       10   -17.27 |
  5. |    5   2014        7   -15.94 |
  6. |    6   2019       18    -14.9 |
  7. |    7   2018       16   -14.46 |
  8. |    8   2014        9   -13.83 |
  9. |    9   2020       20    -13.7 |
 10. |   10   2018       17    -13.4 |
 11. |   11   2014        4   -11.82 |
 12. |   12   2014        6    -9.84 |
 13. |   13   2015       11    -9.45 |
 14. |   14   2013        1    -8.71 |
 15. |   15   2014        2    -8.53 |
 16. |   16   2016       13    -8.53 |
 17. |   17   2014        3     -7.6 |
 18. |   18   2019       19    -6.59 |
 19. |   19   2020       21    -6.21 |
 20. |   20   2014        5    -6.21 |
 21. |   21   2016       14     -4.2 |
     +-------------------------------+




My life is not done yet. I will write an abstract soon!

Anyway, enjoy for now  Wink
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