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1  Economy / Speculation / Potential running flat pattern (very bullish) similar to 2017: 100k+ very likely on: January 23, 2022, 06:11:57 AM
Hi folks,




Current price (35k) is potentially C on the above picture.

Now check early 2017, this pattern happened:



And the big picture of current price:




Not a financial advice but this pattern happens quite often in cryptocurrencies. Best of luck all  Kiss



2  Economy / Speculation / Why I am confident Bitcoin price will still rise A LOT before the next big crash on: March 02, 2021, 11:13:27 AM
Pi cycle top indicator has predicted the previous tops with good accuracy. April 2013 was a bit messed up but December 2013 and December 2017 looked crazy accurate. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/





Orange line is 111 day moving average (111DMA), green line is a multiple of 350 day moving average (350DMA x 2).

When both lines crossed in the past, it showed we reached the top or close to it.

Look where we are in March 2021 Smiley both lines look close, but let's zoom in Smiley




Both lines are still quite far from crossing, I find it very interesting to compare with September - December 2017:




You can see both lines were getting close in that period but this is the moment Bitcoin skyrocketted. Also be very careful, this is when it's time to sell, or at least do not buy when this happens. If we follow the same patterns as 2017 we are 2 or 3 months away from the top of the bubble.


This indicator is also available on TradingView.  Tongue
3  Economy / Speculation / Next target 40-42k area before new ATH? See 2 year moving average on: February 24, 2021, 08:04:39 AM



Green line is 2 year moving average, red line is 2 year moving average x 5.

This pattern is very interesting if we compare it to 2017 bull run, it would mean right now we could be in July-September 2017 repeat, meaning huge move on the upside in the next few months?

Also, this chart is very interesting because it indicates once we overtake the red line, the rise in price is very sudden and very sharp and a big crash follows after that. And bear in mind that those 2 lines always go up so the red line could very well be around 80k once we go above it. So, 150k-200k looks very achievable but then a big dump is likely.
4  Other / Serious discussion / Interesting article about money printing and consequences on: November 26, 2020, 02:34:37 PM
Original article that I got from my brother in PDF version.
Language is in French, this is a quick automatic translation. Very interesting content!  Smiley Sorry for posting so late, it was published in May.


The different stages of the escape from money: the worst is yet to come


The monetization of public debts will lead to a huge increase (about 70%) in the money supply by central banks (in the monetary base).
Such strong monetary creation will lead to mistrust of economic agents towards the quality and value of money, and will therefore lead to “escape” from money. What are the different stages?

If a single country were to conduct a very expansionary monetary policy, the residents of that country would sell that country's currency (currency) and buy other currencies; there would be a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate and high inflation in this country; But all the OECD countries are conducting this very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no switch from one currency to another and, moreover, the exchange rates are very stable between the OECD countries in the recent period;

The first step in the escape from money is then a escape from money to the investment of assets: savers-investors try to get rid of the money and buy other assets (stocks, real estate, gold, etc.). There are therefore bubbles everywhere in asset prices; this is already the case since the subprime crisis and will worsen after the Covid crisis;

This settles the question of money as an investment, but not the question of transaction money. The feeling that the currency is losing value will lead economic agents to look for a transaction currency other than the devalued official currencies; this certainly opens the door to the development of private currencies (various crypto-currencies) provided they are well managed, that is to say that the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively;

It is finally only if the reflex of mistrust towards the currency led, to "get rid of the currency" to purchases of goods and services and not to purchases of assets that there would be inflation prices of goods and services. At the moment, this is not being observed.
The violently expansionary monetary policy carried out in OECD countries will therefore first lead to generalized asset price bubbles; in a second stage, there could be an explosion of the International Monetary System with the rejection of public currencies.

Escape from the currency

The central banks of the OECD countries have embarked on a policy of massive monetization of fiscal deficits put in place in 2020, in order to avoid rising long-term interest rates and a public debt crisis.

This will result in considerable money creation: we believe that the central bank's money supply, the monetary base, will increase by 70% during the year 2020.
This enormous monetary creation will lead to a loss of confidence in the currency, to a distrust of private economic agents towards the value of the currency, and to “run away” from the currency: economic agents try to get rid of currency by purchasing more secure goods or assets.

A note: all OECD countries have the same policy. If only one OECD country were to conduct this very expansionary monetary policy, the holders of that country's currency would sell it to buy other OECD currencies; the currency of this country would depreciate sharply and there would therefore appear high inflation. This is what we see today, for example, in Argentina.

But all the OECD countries are pursuing the same very expansionary monetary policy: there is therefore no reason to switch from one OECD currency to another, and moreover the exchange rates between these currencies are very stable in recent times.

The escape from money could take the form of purchases of goods and services, with each economic agent trying to "get rid" of money by purchasing goods and services. There would then be inflation (of the prices of goods and services), but this does not happen as shown by the lack of correlation between the central bank money supply (the monetary base) and prices.

Asset price inflation


What we are seeing today is the portfolio rebalancing mechanism. Economic agents try to get rid of the excess money they hold by buying financial assets (stocks, bonds, gold, etc.) or real estate. At equilibrium, the currency created by central banks is obviously always the same, but the increase in demand for financial and real estate assets leads to an increase in the prices of these assets, which we have already seen from 2002 to 2008 then after the subprime crisis and what will be even more violent after the Covid crisis.
Since the start of the coronavirus crisis, we have seen the start of the rise in the price of gold.

The first effect of excess money creation and the flight from money is therefore to cause asset price bubbles to appear.

The question of transaction currency

The above therefore corresponds to the role of money as an investment: excess monetary creation leads savers to carry over from money to other financial and real estate assets, hence the bubbles in the prices of these assets.
But what about money as transaction currency?

Economic agents also keep money to finance their spending, and if they lose confidence in the value of money they will try to use currencies other than official state currencies as transaction currency.
This could give an increasing role to private currencies (for example cryptocurrencies) if they are well managed, that is to say if the supply of these currencies does not increase excessively.
This phenomenon has not yet been triggered by the coronavirus crisis, as the evolution of cryptocurrency prices shows (reminder: this article is from May 2020).

Conclusion: two stages in the escape from money

The excess monetary creation by central banks leads to loss of confidence in money, and therefore to run away from money. This has two stages:

1/ The escape from investment money, already present for 10 years, and leading to asset price bubbles;

2/ The escape from transaction currency, not yet present, which can lead to inflation (in the prices of goods and services) if there are massive purchases of goods and services, but also to the replacement of the official public currencies of States by private currencies.


Let's see what's going on in 2021.

Feel free to discuss respectfully  Smiley
5  Economy / Speculation / This is most likely the reason why Bitcoin has been less volatile lately on: July 06, 2020, 09:00:56 AM
Bitcoin since 2017:





I have not spent time yet to check with the different Fibonacci levels, but we could very well be in a ABCDE Elliott wave (of this kind):





It means we will slowly correct to 6k area. I am still holding my short position. I can't be sure this is a ABCDE pattern, I still see 3k as possible, anyway 2022-2023 should be very good for the bulls  Kiss I might even lose my bet in 2021  Undecided


Some reading:
https://www.24elliottwaves.com/abcde-correction
6  Economy / Speculation / A move (almost) no one is expecting: gap at $11795 on: June 08, 2020, 07:01:22 AM
What if the whales decide to wreck both bears and bulls in the next coming weeks?


At the time of this post, Bitcoin is trading a bit above $9700.





Now we are well aware of the big resistance at $10500, placing a short with a stop loss at $10600 sounds too easy, too obvious?

Whales could destroy all those bears and liquidate all these stop losses.


Then everyone would turn bullish because the resistance has been officially broken. Whales now can destroy these bulls, go to $11795 area to fill the gap on the future exchange.


Coincidentally, our Fibonacci gives us $11765 (Fib 100) since the last $8600ish bottom  Smiley Would be amazing if this happens. This way, the whales ruin both bears and bulls. Our lovely downtrend is back from $11.7k to go below $7000 for a first take profit target (that would be around $6700).






The move from $11.7k to below $9.5k needs to be quick, similar to June 2019 when we touched $13.8k then dropped very fast from there (gravestone doji).





A quick drop is necessary so the monthly candle of June 2020 doesn't close above $9.7k, this is necessary to stay in the bearish triangle that started since December 2017.

Best way to benefit from such possible move is to wait for $11600 and short the market from there, with a tight stop loss above $11.8k.


Wait and see  Tongue





tl;dr

Whales troll the market, pump to $11.7k then dump with a possible crash to $3.1k area.

A more boring version is we reached our top for 2020 already and Bitcoin will not break the $10.5k resistance. More boring but also more expected at this stage.
7  Economy / Speculation / Bulls are no longer fresh and will run out of gas on: June 05, 2020, 04:46:49 AM
It's one thing to take a set out of Rafael Nadal on clay, but as the match goes the distance, you know you are screwed unless maybe you are Novak Djokovic (the 2009 loss to Robin Soderling doesn't count due to injury and parents divorcing).

Connor McGregor thought he was fooling anyone when firing all cylinders during 5 rounds but Floyd Mayweather winning was never in doubt.

A triple top (October 2019, February 2020, June 2020) isn't good for the bulls. Now maybe there is a slight chance we see 12k as there is a CME gap at 11.9k but once this is done, no reason to be bullish. We know 10.5k resistance is strong, breaking above and yet returning back to 6k would be a big troll job and it wouldn't surprise me at all. No one is expecting it.

Time will play in favor of the bears.

Rafael Nadal in 4 sets (max). As usual  Kiss


8  Economy / Speculation / Starting to lose patience with my short to 5.5k! What's going on? on: June 01, 2020, 07:37:24 AM
Imagine Bitcoin price floating between 9k to 9.8k for the whole month?

That would be the biggest troll job of the history.

But there is hope, there is a gap around 9.8k to be filled, once the CME fills this, perhaps the fall can begin for good?  Tongue
9  Economy / Speculation / Double bottom @ 3.1k or lower low @ 2k? on: May 25, 2020, 06:58:07 AM
Hi,

Both scenarios look possible. I would prefer to see a double bottom at 3.1k area (same low an January 2019). That would be very good for a trend reversal in the long term (2022 and beyond). I would finally become a bull!

I saw famous analyst masterluc predicted a lower low around 2k if the downtrend continues  Embarrassed unfortunately looks possible as well.

What is the most likely scenario, and why?



 
10  Economy / Trading Discussion / Short & Long on Bitcoin/USD market: Bossian's trading tips on: May 24, 2020, 08:32:07 AM
Hi folks,

Been posting for a while now. I am usually a swing trader, never do daily trading (too tricky). My typical timeframe for a trade is 1 week to 2/3 months.

I posted the following thread recently: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5250255.msg54477235#msg54477235
As you can read, I have a target at 5.5k for Bitcoin, with an estimate date of July-August.


I will update this thread whenever I can and will post charts when I have more time.


The analysis behind my short to 5.5k is mainly backed by Elliott Waves theory (see link posted above). I am confident we see 5.5k soon, however in between I usually secure some profits, and my first securing profit price will be 7.9k because I see a possible bounce back from there.





To sum up:
Target by August: 5.5k
Secure profit at 7.9k, and will try to short again if bounce back at 8.3k.


This thread is not financial advice, do your own research  Kiss best of luck everybody!  Cheesy
11  Other / Beginners & Help / Dear newbies, this is how you get merits on: May 24, 2020, 07:33:49 AM
Dear newbies,

You were told you need to work hard to rank up? You were told you need to write constructive essays about the origin of the blockchain technology? You were told you will need to post the most convincing technical analysis (as long as they are bullish)?

Well, it's time to think outside the box!

Or better: it's time to stop overthinking  Kiss Sometimes, a simple approach is much more effective.

This is how you get merits: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54481322#msg54481322



You are welcome.
12  Economy / Speculation / A shorting paradise: next target is 5.5k on: May 22, 2020, 04:00:58 AM
Analysis made with traditional Elliott wave theory, we failed again to break 10.5k, worst news (for bulls) is we didn't even get close and this time got rejected at 10.1k which creates another lower high compared to February 2020.

Now the downtrend is still intact, despite the recent attempt to break a big resistance (descending triangle). We can safely say the bulls are now either selling or placed in the recovery position, praying it is just a bad dream...





Therefore 5.5k looks obvious, with a safe estimate date to be achieved around July-August this year.

5.5k is a quite conservative target I believe. The most ambitious traders will aim at 3.5k (lower low compared to March 2020). And because it needs to be done, Stop Loss set @ 10.8k  Tongue


At the time of this topic, Bitcoin is trading around 8.95k, it is very possible we see a bounce back to 9.4k, it shouldn't bounce higher than that, in any case a bounce shorter than 9.8k will confirm the downtrend.


Best of luck everyone  Kiss
13  Other / Off-topic / Question on: May 20, 2020, 07:21:56 AM
If you flip a coin, and it lands on heads. Then you flip it again, and it's heads again.

Do you say: you don't need to flip it a third time, for sure it's heads?
14  Economy / Trading Discussion / No one spotting this dragonfly doji candlestick? on: May 03, 2020, 05:13:25 AM
Time frame: 1 month
Time frame: 2 months

Did anyone see it?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dragonfly-doji.asp

One of the most noticeable gravestone doji was spotted in June 2019 which indicated imminent downtrend, that turned out to be very accurate. Now regarding this dragonfly doji the wisest traders will wait for a confirmation, would be cool if May could close out above 9.2k.

Important to note that Bitcoin will still be bearish if we can't break above 10.5k.




Best of luck!
15  Economy / Trading Discussion / I could not care less if Bitcoin is worth $100,000 or $100 on: May 02, 2020, 02:37:04 AM
We traders care about the variations and the volatility. Plain and simple.

That's how we make money.

No emotion. I am not emotionally attached to Bitcoin in any way.

Emotion is a money killer (and money is an emotion killer  Tongue )

Now, some interesting times ahead, May-June will turn out to be crucial. There is an obvious dragonfly doji candle (2 months). This is usually the sign of a trend reversal.

video: https://bit.ly/3aQCSMJ

It depends how price reacts if it gets close again to the 10.5k resistance. Bitcoin price got rejected twice at this crucial price. If Bitcoin breaks above, we will probably see a new ATH.

Now if we are rejected again at 10.5k, we will see 3k soon or even below that. The dragonfly doji is a good sign but we need a confirmation at the resistance mentioned above.

2020 will be epic one way or another! plenty of money to make either way  Kiss




Bitcoin could be worth $100,000 or $100 in five years from now, and I give zero fuck.
16  Economy / Speculation / Crucial month ahead: Bitcoin goes to 20k or 3k range on: April 30, 2020, 08:11:40 AM


Downtrend still intact until Bitcoin price breaks above 9.5kish and most importantly 10.5k to create a higher high compared to previous high (10.5k in October 2019 and February 2020).

Simple strategy here: short the market and set a stop loss at 10.7k, take profit at 3.5k. That's a nice "risk vs. reward" strategy.  

Or... wait until end of May to see if Bitcoin price breaks the downtrend above 9.5k, then 10.5k and decide accordingly. My opinion is if we see a price above 10.5k this year, 20k will be very quickly reached. However, if we are rejected again, we might see a lower low compared to previous low (3.7k), which means 3k area, maybe even below.

Buying right now at 9.2k is gambling. Again my opinion. And by the way this week's rally is very similar to what we saw in February when Bitcoin price rallied from 9k to 10.5k. Hmmm...

Best of luck!  Kiss
17  Economy / Speculation / Bulls should stop being so arrogant when market is going through a nice rally on: March 13, 2020, 07:19:51 AM
A "conversation" (if we can call that) with a guy on Twitter just 40 days ago.
Being so emotionally involved and so disrespectful to opposite opinions will get you burned many times.

Bright side: seek for these kinds of folks on Twitter and other social networks, see what they say and just do the opposite. You will make money, guaranteed.
18  Economy / Trading Discussion / Long term investment vs. Swing trading vs. Daily trading on: March 12, 2020, 01:00:12 PM
Most people on this forum are long term holders (correct me if I am wrong). I wouldn't recommend anyone intro long term investing to try to place trades, or if you do learn how to do it, study the vocabulary, learn how to understand charts.

Choose one of the three and become good at it.

Daily trading is extremely difficult. Basically you buy at 6k and hope to sell at 6.1k with a 25X leverage. You need a stop loss, it is very dangerous.

Swing trading is buying near supports and selling near resistance, you can hold for 1 month, or 3 months, sometimes 6 months (my personal favorite).

Long term investment is what most people do here, buy Bitcoin and hope to make a profit in 2 or 3 years from now (or further than that). For this you need a very clear and deep look at the fundamentals to make a smart decision. Not as easy as it seems.  Kiss
19  Economy / Exchanges / Exchanges offering leverage X 5 (or more) and allowing European customers? on: March 12, 2020, 12:20:40 PM
Hi folks,

Simple question here, I heard Kraken allows a 2.5 leverage, but not more than that. Any exchange that is European friendly and allowing 5 X leverage?

If possible with rates similar to Bitstamp?

Thanks for your help.
20  Economy / Trading Discussion / Another Bossian prediction: buy at 6.6k, sell at 8k on: March 12, 2020, 08:50:01 AM
Dear folks

My last prediction was to sell at 8.4k and wait for a buy opportunity.

This call played out well, selling at 8.4k was definitely a good move. Now the next move is to wait for 6.5k area (strong support), buy and and wait for the bounce towards 8k area (conservative target).

(Stop loss: 5.9k).

Two main reasons for this:
- Fear index right now is very clear (remember, buying when people are panicking often generates profits)
- A lower high is expected after seeing 10.5k and 9.5k lately, that is if the downtrend continues.

Remember: just listen to the herd, and do the opposite. Right now, the herd is selling, some think it is correlated to the virus (which I don't think it is, but whatever), the whales will be tempted to buy very soon.

Best of luck whatever your next move is!
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