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1  Economy / Economics / Why didn't the fed buy back SVB's bonds? on: March 24, 2023, 01:37:47 AM
A lot of people were suggesting on other sites that SVB collapsed because a lot of money was held in government bonds and was hard to liquidate because of the rise in interest rates. If that was the case, why was there no facility for the bonds to just be bought back and instead the bank had to collapse into a bigger one that could make more profit from it (or have a greater burden themselves).
2  Bitcoin / Project Development / Can you encrypt vps data so a provider could never access it? on: November 30, 2022, 04:15:19 PM
This came to my mind recently because of how a lot of more centralised projects (like mixers and exchanges) can be attacked by law enforcement and taken down. I'm wondering if there's a way projects can be fully encrypted within a vps instance so the vps provider wouldn't be able to access the actual services running (but they'd still be easy to patch for the owner).

I was doing some related reading about a prototype for blockchain level cloud services and stumbled upon Intel SGX and AMD SEV which seem to offer hardware level encryption but I'm not sure of their scope and if keys could be snapshot.
3  Economy / Service Discussion / Should I be comfortable using Purse.io? on: November 20, 2022, 04:39:36 PM
Not sure if there's been a discussion on this before but I'm not sure how trusted the funds credited to this exchange are (particularly with savings above 16%).

There's obviously a chance a lot of these savings are made via various prizes that can be won in the general computing sense (such as hackathons) where people are fine trading in vouchers below their value and cases where amazon marks up things especially high that there are some places that sell them for a lot cheaper (particularly if a company chooses to sell something at cost because it encourages people to buy more from them or if a company has an exclusive agreement - a catalog company in the UK sold a lot of electronic products at a 25% drawdown from most places at one time: I think they worked out how to do efficient tests to check the devices worked or had some arrangement to be a logistics facilitator for everyone else or something).

Anyway, I know amazon offers a 17% discount on vouchers if you buy more than £/$50 worth so perhaps there's a chance they give higher discounts for other things too and that means a 15% saving is just using someone else to facilitate that deal (ie if you buy something for $160, you're not left with $20 to waste on something you might not use).

But considering voucher balance lasts 10 years, are you safer converting crypto to cash and buying things yourself or is there no additional safety about it considering you're using an imported wishlist and the site is probably known to amazon anyway?
4  Other / Beginners & Help / Is there an efficient way to research and find new information on news on: November 11, 2022, 05:22:10 AM
Not sure if there's already discussions on things like this but I constantly find I'm left with unanswered questions when reading crypto related media, often news articles (and some of my questions never get answered).

I've been thinking this about the ftx hack fund issues and have been wondering if there's a good place a lot of people use to get accurate and quick information about breaking news and information that comes quickly? Are places like Twitter good for this? I've seen it be used and is quite useful for cyber vulnerabilities where people post threads with 15+ tweets that are concise enough to cover most things.

Before my issues with not finding the full answers on what happened with ftx, I had a similar problem with taproot where I had to look up how it functioned multiple times before it finally clicked (and that was a case of it making sense how it worked by the sites I found but then they didn't have any examples of it and left it being explained in an abstract way - has anyone found a solution to this or do we just have to wait on it or become the solution)?
5  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Is a layer 2 coin/mining possible? on: October 31, 2022, 04:57:39 PM
I don't know if this would achieve anything or be useful but is it possible to make pow and pos tokens on layer 2 of the bitcoin blockchain (in a way they'd have their own mining and compressed/hashed versions of the blocks and certain transactions could be entered into bitcoin's blockchain but most could be stored elsewhere). I was thinking of this as being more of an "adopt the security of a long lived blockchain while offering other incentives like cheaper fees, multi or cross chain validation, or additional functionality bitcoin.apps won't offer because it detracts from the protocol's security". I know layer 2 has applications and tokens but I thought mining was fully reliant on bitcoin's chain and consensus was determined by the software rather than having support/opposition flags like normal blocks for coins do.

Every time I try to search for something like this I'm normally directed to eth and while eth can have clients that enforce its own consensus rules, surely separate nodes on bitcoin's blockchain that were capable of determining their own concensus mechanism and matching the flags of a block would still be possible to implement? Are there any functioning examples of this?
6  Economy / Speculation / Is there too much competition between cloud services and vpns now on: October 27, 2022, 04:39:04 PM
I've noticed there are so many technology firms trying to make the bulk of their profits from selling privacy or infrastructure solutions (like cloud services) and with other companies like antivirus (cheaply enough that they started to offer VPNs for free) and Web browsers moving into the space too in recent years, are we going to see there being too much competition soon and perhaps peer to peer solutions taking over at some point once tracking improves for services like recaptcha.

This became more noticeable to me recently as duckduckgo have started a marketing campaign aimed at privacy and Apple have been trying to do similar for a while too with their OS/device ads.

We're likely quite a bit of time away from getting a fully decentralised and stable storage solution (even though there's competition for it) and website throughput (as tor seems to work fairly well for addressing but it's also prone to being attacked in ways such as dos/spam attacks to take parts of the n network down and won't boost the power of the servers hosting onion domains). It's well known Amazon and Microsoft make a bulk of their profits from cloud services.

This probably means things like web3 and whatever the metaverse gets reinvented to in a few years is probably going to either directly compete with a lot of large companies already in this sector or will be directly boosting their profits (or - and most likely - both).
7  Economy / Economics / UK looking to freeze energy rates on: September 06, 2022, 04:25:23 PM
I just saw on Reuters that the UK government are planning to freeze energy rates (capped for a normal bill layer at £2500) for this year and next at a cost of an estimated $130bn for them currently this is the largest action taken in Europe apparently but it also feels like one of the last Western European countries to start to act - and one with a lot of control on how it can. BBC source

After the two years it's unclear what will happen but oil is a very sporadic industry and extra production can be set up in the North Sea as well as other countries being able to compete with the current supplies if they become more stable/less sanctioned in that time. There's also renewables such as wind which would be a reliable source of electricity in most of North West Europe (aside from a few weeks of sunny days every year).



The new prime minister about to be sworn in has been criticised for being out of touch with normal people and for chasing as much money as she can so this is an interesting start.

8  Economy / Trading Discussion / preev.com - does anyone know what happened to the site? on: August 21, 2022, 02:33:14 PM
I've noticed that site has been down for a while and I assumed a lot of people used it historically so I'm curious if anyone knows why it's down and if it's staying down if we know who the creator/owner was/is and maybe the reason for it going down as I doubt Google's estimator was a good alternative (they've still got 3 years on their domain too).

It looked like a good site for eventually getting ad revenue as it was quite well known but I don't think I ever saw an ad on there to date though.
9  Economy / Speculation / Does all the money from luna have to go somewhere? on: May 23, 2022, 07:34:01 PM
I'm wondering if the money that might've been used to dca or diversify into luna from some crypto investors have already noticeably been put into other coins and had an impact on them.

Considering $10-20bn in liquid assets might've had to be reassigned quickly and a lot of people who understood the fundamentals of luna probably converted their ust and sold each for a dollar (and dumped their luna too) - but I'm not sure if this actually happened much or how much ust there were before the crash.
10  Economy / Economics / The UK's FCA and Binance talks break down on: August 26, 2021, 05:23:17 PM
I saw an article on this a few days back from a legitimate source and I'm wondering why no one else seems to have made a topic here on it.

It seems the UK financial conduct authority was trying to find a way to come to an agreement with binance to keep operating in the UK but put blame on binance for not being able to answer the questions it wanted them to.

I'm not entirely sure, personally, if this has any impact on bitcoin at all as I think there is a lot of competition to binance the FCA won't be able to find or that will comply with the FCA (such as coinbase and decentralised exchanges and the smaller leverage platforms).
11  Other / Archival / Edited on: July 01, 2021, 12:18:24 AM
Edited
12  Economy / Speculation / I'm bullish until 29k (but we probably won't get near there - 40k is very strong on: May 17, 2021, 12:15:52 PM
It is unlikely we go that far but, just know if you sell now you might not want to buy back until the big drop (if one comes) at the end of the cycle.

There's potential this drop was artificially implemented (by retail/TA fear) to ensure a more secure run off. Many speculators I've seen are implying the current sell off will move us into oversold conditions (meaning it'll encourage more people to invest if they invest from the RSI - which institutions might be tracking for a buy).

My 29k figure comes from coinbase data on the last bull market and would put us in September 2017 (I'm using monthly closes instead of wicks).

(not financial advice but intended as a bit of comfort for anyone worrying and constantly trading crypto - if your strategy doesn't work well with volatility go for walk, buy a game or find aTV show you're yet to watch).
13  Economy / Economics / Where I'd value coinbase on: April 15, 2021, 12:37:10 PM
disclaimer: this is education and my 2 cents only from what I've seen with large cap companies
Tldr: $8bn-30bn is a reasonable market cap estimate for the immediate term imo. But it's likely we'll drop hard if crypto drops. I have not bought the stock but I intend to buy 1 and only 1.

I wanted to post this in case anyone was onsidering investing in them and because many might not know how to value a stock.

First of all, I'm going to focus only on earnings and revenues when working these out and provide an upper bound and lower bound for each (this isn't investment advice). Other values have potential for being "aggressively overestimated".

There WILL be a massive slump in trading next year the potentially the year after, there won't be as much day trading and many day traders will turn to turning btc into other alts rather than cashing in so this probably should be considered in everything.

Given current revenue for the first quarter of $1.8bn, this is $7.2bn for the year so would see them being valued around $14.8bn-$36bn.

Based off current profits of $750m (since they don't provide concrete data) they'll probably be valued at $10bn-30bn.

I'm not sure what the market cap of these are but if you can catch it under $30bn, it might be a realistic investment for hodling.

I think it's likely they'll be doing stock buybacks if bit coin's price crashes so selling a dip might be profiting them

It seems quite well timed they've come out with this stuff now. A 4 year hodl or a 3 month hodl would probably be my advice. Their market share might also continue to plummit since it's also only at 11% now according to their report which seems quite low. The rest I can only think is being made up from binance and otc desks.
14  Economy / Economics / Has anyone been keeping up with the gamestop stuff? on: March 16, 2021, 01:14:45 AM
Tldr: do we have any info on the hedge funds reporting information?

I opened up my brokerage account a few days ago to find out my gme stocks had gone up by quite a bit again so I'm wondering if anyone had any info on whether the hedge funds declared anything loss/gain related since the original short squeeze (caused by the guy who bought $980k of a low liquidity stock and the reporting on reddit)?

Before now I thought they were trying to keep quiet and just pay a fine for late reporting.
15  Economy / Economics / Will the defi crypto:fiat interest rate become an interesting indicator? on: January 17, 2021, 01:21:20 AM
As bitcoin goes past $40-80k (IF it does this year) do you think we'll see a rate change between defi platforms lending crypto for fiat and vice versa.

For example, if people predict that bitcoin will go up to $350k as a lot are saying right now,then a drop to $20-60k would be likely so people might be taking loans against their fiat value to rebuy btc at a lower rate (and sell or transfer the btc without using an exchange or using defi as part of a trading strategy. The idea that it could be more expensive to do this could be outweighed by its instantaneous nature and the security of it (as exchanges often have a few frequent addresses they use to store funds and are at the very least prone to social engineering attacks).

If this were the case, as fiat loan demand reduces so will its interest rate and as crypto demand goes up so too will its lending rate so a divergence similar to the treasury bonds signalling a recession may be analysable.
16  Bitcoin / Legal / Has anyone bothered to register as a peer to peer exchange for the UK fatf rules on: January 10, 2021, 08:20:26 PM
I don't normally do peer to peer trading but today or yesterday was the cut off for operations if you do (apparently) and the cut off for emergency declarations was December.

I'm just confused on the whole process and was wondering if someone was given any more information in case I decide to trade again and register at some point (won't be doing that for a while though).

It's interesting to see that Singapore has been brought in as one of the countries that needs to comply with it yet I don't see binance enforcing kyc yet. Kyc goes anywhere from address verification to ID verification and source of funds and those all seem fairly problematic -also the same extent hasn't been brought in for people trading jewellery or fiat afaik so (as in being exchanged for each other or for other non electronic assets) ...
17  Economy / Trading Discussion / If you're bad at trading crypto, forex might be easier on: January 08, 2021, 11:40:59 AM
There are a lot more "patterns" in forex that seem to make sense based on my own strategy so I'd recommend if people are having issues trading crypto with larger swings coming, you might want to move across.

You can always still use your profits to buy bitcoin at certain points (eg once a week).

I was looking at this in advance for when I need to find something to do if bitcoin starts crashing again (it hurts to see something fundamentally bullish and innovafing fall rapidly and turn investors away so I just ignore it).
18  Other / Meta / Does anyone have data on wakeups they can turn into a graph? on: December 22, 2020, 02:12:18 AM
If anyone has a years' worth of the seclog I'll be interested to take a copy.

I want a graph that plots the number of account wakeups for a given day with a label for when the ath was crossed as I suspect a lot of people from the last bull run could've just been waiting for the mainstream media to cover bitcoin again (which I assume it has).
19  Economy / Speculation / We're almost half way to 100x (250k) on: December 21, 2020, 07:16:13 PM
In 2018 we saw drops down to ~2900 and recently we dropped to around $4000, we're now already 600% up from the $4000 figure. I don't see $250k being completely out of reach by now, since an extra move as big as we've seen ever the past few months would take us to $120k.

(This is just a curious evaluation I don't want anyone trading based on this alone - it's normally not the best time to buy when everyone's bullish or if it is it's riskier to do).
20  Economy / Economics / Tether's market cap is huge! (usdt) on: December 18, 2020, 04:07:58 AM
I was scrolling through cmc and I didn't realise until now that tether has the 4th highest market cap at ~$20bn. This feels like a really high risk asset and that's probably reflected in it having a 5x market cap daily trading volume.

It's probably just something to take note of that if it isn't physically backed and we see massive volatile moves then don't trust it to peg the dollar especially if it keeps getting a higher and higher pool of funds that are thought to control it (its a shame a lot of sites use it in futures).
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